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At least 109 records · Page 6

Variations of the physical parameters of the blazar Mrk 421 based on analysis of the spectral energy distributions

Abstract We report on the variations of the physical parameters of the jet observed in the blazar Mrk 421, and discuss the origin of X-ray flares in the jet, based on analysis of several spectral energy distributions (SEDs). The SEDs are modeled using the one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model, its parameters determined using a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. The lack of data at TeV energies means many of the parameters cannot be uniquely determined and are correlated. These are studied in detail. We find that the optimal solution can be uniquely determined only when we apply a constraint to one of four parameters: the magnetic field (B), the Doppler factor, the size of the emitting region, and the normalization factor of the electron energy distribution. We used 31 sets of SEDs from 2009 to 2014 with optical–UV data observed with UVOT/Swift and the Kanata telescope, X-ray data with XRT/Swift, and γ-ray data with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. The result of our SED analysis suggests that, in the X-ray faint state, the emission occurs in a relatively small area (∼1016 cm) with a relatively strong magnetic field (B ∼ 10−1 G). The X-ray bright state shows a tendency opposite to that of the faint state, that is, a large emitting area (∼1018 cm), probably downstream of the jet, and a weak magnetic field (B ∼ 10−3 G). The high X-ray flux was due to an increase in the maximum energy of electrons. On the other hand, the presence of two kinds of emitting areas implies that the one-zone model is unsuitable for reproducing at least part of the observed SEDs.

Yamada, Yurika↗

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FEFF analysis of americium oxides

The Am N 4,5 (4d 3/2 and 4d 5/2 ) and Am O 4,5 (5d 3/2 and 5d 5/2 ) x-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) of americium sesquioxide (Am 2 O 3 ) and americium dioxide (AmO 2 ) has been evaluated with FEFF, a Green's function–based, multiple scattering code. Taking guidance from the intermediate coupling model (ICM), applicable to local and nonmagnetized samples, it is possible to completely reconstruct the experimental results for the N 4,5 spectra, including the observed differences between the Am 2 O 3 and the AmO 2 cases. Although complicated by a more asymmetric line shape and difficult background variations, the FEFF analysis confirms the absence of core hole angular momentum coupling in Am O 4,5 spectroscopy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Single-colony MALDI mass spectrometry imaging reveals spatial differences in metabolite abundance between natural and cultured Trichodesmium morphotypes

Trichodesmium, a globally significant N 2 -fixing marine cyanobacterium, forms extensive surface blooms in nutrient-poor ocean regions. These blooms consist of a dynamic assemblage of Trichodesmium species that form distinct colony morphotypes and are inhabited by diverse microorganisms. Trichodesmium colony morphotypes vary in ecological niche, nutrient uptake, and organic molecule release, differentially impacting ocean carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycles. Here, we assessed the poorly studied spatial abundance of metabolites within and between three morphologically distinct Trichodesmium colonies collected from the Red Sea. We also compared these results with two morphotypes of the cultivable Trichodesmium strain IMS101. Using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) coupled with liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA) tandem mass spectrometry (MS2), we identified and localized a wide range of small metabolites associated with single-colony Trichodesmium morphotypes. Our untargeted MALDI-MSI approach revealed 80 unique features (metabolites) shared between Trichodesmium morphotypes. Discrimination analysis showed spatial variations in 57 shared metabolites, accounting for 62% of the observed variation between morphotypes. The greatest variations in metabolite abundance were observed between the cultured morphotypes compared to the natural colony morphotypes, suggesting substantial differences in metabolite production between the cultivable strain IMS101 and the naturally occurring colony morphotypes that the cultivable strain is meant to represent. This study highlights the variations in metabolite abundance between natural and cultured Trichodesmium morphotypes and provides valuable insights into metabolites common to morphologically distinct Trichodesmium colonies, offering a foundation for future targeted metabolomic investigations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Microstructure and mechanical properties of friction stir weld performed on neutron-irradiated 304L steel with helium

As nuclear power plants (NPPs) approach or exceed 40–60 years of service, it may become necessary to repair damaged neutron-irradiated components to prolong longevity. However, fusion welding repair of irradiated steels and metallic materials is challenging because of helium-induced cracking. This study used friction stir welding (FSW) to address helium-related issues, such as helium bubble formation and grain boundary cracking. The microstructure, helium-induced degradation, and mechanical properties of a friction stir weld produced on neutron-irradiated 304L stainless steel with approximately 5.2 appm of helium were characterized. The analysis focused on variations in grain size, texture, and the morphology of helium-induced damage in the friction stir weld. Mechanical properties were characterized on the irradiated base metal (BM) and metallurgical zones of the friction stir weld: the stir zone (SZ), the thermo-mechanically affected zone (TMAZ), and the heat affected zone (HAZ). Only minor scattered porosity in the SZ and TMAZ and a few short microcracks (below 20 μm in length) in the TMAZ were observed, indicating limited helium-induced degradation. Tensile tests revealed good mechanical properties and fractography analysis demonstrated predominantly ductile fracture. In conclusion, the results highlight the immediate and substantial benefits of the FSW approach for repairing or joining helium-containing irradiated materials in NPPs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Willow Biomass Crops Are a Carbon Negative or Low-Carbon Feedstock Depending on Prior Land Use and Transportation Distances to End Users

Few life cycle assessments (LCAs) on willow biomass production have investigated the effects of key geographically specific parameters. This study uses a spatial LCA model for willow biomass production to determine spatially explicit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy return on investment (EROI), including land use conversion from pasture and cropland or grassland. There were negative GHG emissions on 92% of the land identified as suitable for willow biomass production, indicating this system’s potential for climate change mitigation. For willow planted on cropland or pasture, life cycle GHG emissions ranged from −53.2 to −176.9 kg CO2eq Mg-1. When willow was grown on grassland the projected decrease in soil organic carbon resulted in a slightly positive GHG balance. Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) associated with land use change, transportation distance, and willow yield had the greatest impacts on GHG emissions. Results from the uncertainty analysis exhibited large variations in GHG emissions between counties arising from differences in these parameters. The average EROI across the entire region was 19.2. Willow biomass can be a carbon negative or low-carbon energy source with a high EROI in regions with similar infrastructure, transportation distances, and growing conditions such as soil characteristics, land cover types, and climate.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Daily and Seasonal Variations of Shallow Seismic Velocities in Southern California From Joint Analysis of H/V Ratios and Autocorrelations of Seismic Waveforms

Establishing a baseline of ongoing secular velocity variations at the subsurface can improve the accuracy of detecting and interpreting short-term velocity changes, and advance the understanding of observed seismic motions and the behavior of subsurface materials. Toward these goals, we develop and apply a deconvolved autocorrelation (DA) method to estimate regional daily and seasonal changes of seismic velocities in southern California. The DA method combines advantages of traditional autocorrelation and Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio, and is used to analyze over 10 years of data recorded by 50 stations. The results indicate widespread daily and seasonal changes of up to 10% and 4%, respectively, in the top tens of meters of the crust. The thickness of the surface layer, distance from the coast, and topographic variations are important factors controlling the amplitudes of the resolved velocity variations. The results suggest that changes of soil moisture and thermoelastic strain are likely dominant factors affecting the daily and seasonal variations, respectively. The developed DA method can improve the accuracy and robustness of estimated changes of subsurface materials at other locations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simultaneous dissection of grain carotenoid levels and kernel color in biparental maize populations with yellow-to-orange grain

Maize enriched in provitamin A carotenoids could be key in combatting vitamin A deficiency in human populations relying on maize as a food staple. Consumer studies indicate that orange maize may be regarded as novel and preferred. This study identifies genes of relevance for grain carotenoid concentrations and kernel color, through simultaneous dissection of these traits in 10 families of the US maize nested association mapping panel that have yellow to orange grain. Quantitative trait loci were identified via joint-linkage analysis, with phenotypic variation explained for individual kernel color quantitative trait loci ranging from 2.4% to 17.5%. These quantitative trait loci were cross-analyzed with significant marker-trait associations in a genome-wide association study that utilized ~27 million variants. Nine genes were identified: four encoding activities upstream of the core carotenoid pathway, one at the pathway branchpoint, three within the α- or β-pathway branches, and one encoding a carotenoid cleavage dioxygenase. Of these, three exhibited significant pleiotropy between kernel color and one or more carotenoid traits. Kernel color exhibited moderate positive correlations with β-branch and total carotenoids and negligible correlations with α-branch carotenoids. These findings can be leveraged to simultaneously achieve desirable kernel color phenotypes and increase concentrations of provitamin A and other priority carotenoids.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The biogeography of soil and airborne fungi in the Southwestern USA in relation to climate and vegetation

To assess how fungal dispersal might respond to climate change, we examined how climate and geography influence the regional distribution of fungi in soil and air. Specifically, we hypothesized that neighboring fungal communities should be more similar than distant communities (i.e. spatially autocorrelated) and that fungal dispersal should be more limited in soil than in air. We collected soil and air samples from 60 sites across five states in the Southwestern USA. Then, we sequenced the ITS2 region to identify fungal taxa in each sample. Next, we used distance-based redundancy analysis to partition variation in fungal community composition between climate variables and spatial structure. Fungi were indeed spatially autocorrelated. Moreover, precipitation, maximum vapor pressure deficit, and soil moisture were significantly related to fungal community composition in soils. In comparison, only precipitation was significantly related to community composition in the air. After accounting for climate, the strength of spatial autocorrelation did not differ significantly in soilborne versus airborne fungi. Dispersal limitation was evident in soilborne fungi at short distances (<100 km) and was not observed at any distance in airborne fungi. Altogether, climate may influence which fungal taxa are present in soil and air, and fungi could feasibly wind disperse over regional scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geospatial analysis of preterm and small-for-gestational age births in Washington D.C.

Background: This study is based on the recognition that adverse pregnancy outcomes significantly affect maternal and infant health, leading to increased morbidity and mortality. These outcomes are shaped by a complex interplay of individual-level factors—like maternal age and education—and community-level influences, including socio-economic status and access to healthcare. Understanding these determinants is crucial for developing effective public health strategies, especially for marginalized populations, by identifying high-risk areas and informing targeted interventions that address both individual and structural barriers. Methods: We utilized geospatial analysis to explore the association between individual- and community-level factors and adverse pregnancy outcomes, specifically preterm birth (PTB) and small-for-gestational-age (SGA) birthweight in Washington, D.C. We used Empirical Bayes smoothing methods to calculate rates of adverse birth outcomes from 2010 to 2018 at the U.S. Census tract–level. Spatial scan statistics were used to investigate if adverse birth outcomes clustered in specific areas. ANOVA tests were conducted for individual- and community-level factors within identified clusters. Results: Spatial analysis identified significant high-risk clusters for PTB and SGA infants primarily in southeastern Washington, D.C., particularly in Wards 7 and 8. Individuals residing within these clusters experienced a 47% increased risk of PTB (RR = 1.467) and a 56% increased risk of SGA (RR = 1.560) compared to those outside clusters. Space–time analysis revealed temporal variation, with PTB clusters persisting from 2011 to 2014 and SGA clusters extending through 2017. Compared to low-risk clusters, high-risk clusters had younger birthing individuals (mean age ~26.5 vs. ~33 years), lower maternal college degree attainment (~20% vs. ~80%), higher rates of late or no prenatal care (~16% vs. 11%), and increased prevalence of smoking and hypertension (all P < 0.001). Community-level indicators showed lower median household incomes ($\$40,000$ vs. ~$\$105,000$), greater poverty (~16% vs. ~7% below $\$10,000$/year), higher public assistance use (~32% vs. ~5%), and reduced healthcare access (greater distances to emergency and specialty care) in high-risk areas (all P < 0.001). Neighborhood deprivation indices were significantly elevated, commutes were longer, and population density was lower in these clusters. These findings highlight that adverse birth outcomes cluster in neighborhoods with pronounced socioeconomic and health disparities. Conclusion: High-risk birth clusters highlight intertwined factors: individual, socio-economic, and geographic. Addressing these requires comprehensive interventions focusing on social and structural determinants of health.

Birth outcomes↗

Toward Standardized Microscale Tensile Testing for Two‐Photon Polymerization‐Fabricated Materials in Liquid

Two-photon polymerization (TPP) enables the fabrication of intricate 3D microstructures with submicron precision, offering significant potential in biomedical applications like tissue engineering. In such applications, to print materials and structures with defined mechanics, it is crucial to understand how TPP printing parameters impact the material properties in a physiologically relevant liquid environment. Herein, an experimental approach utilizing microscale tensile testing (μTT) for the systematic measurement of TPP-fabricated microfibers submerged in liquid as a function of printing parameters is introduced. Using a diurethane dimethacrylate-based resin, the influence of printing parameters on microfiber geometry is first explored, demonstrating cross-sectional areas ranging from 1 to 36 μm 2 . Tensile testing reveals Young's moduli between 0.5 and 1.5 GPa and yield strengths from 10 to 60 MPa. The experimental data show an excellent fit with the Ogden hyperelastic polymer model, which enables a detailed analysis of how variations in writing speed, laser power, and printing path influence the mechanical properties of TPP microfibers. The μTT method is also showcased for evaluating multiple commercial resins and for performing cyclic loading experiments. Collectively, this study builds a foundation toward a standardized microscale tensile testing framework to characterize the mechanical properties of TPP printed structures.

mechanical characterization↗

The value of in-reservoir energy storage for flexible dispatch of geothermal power

Geothermal systems making use of advanced drilling and well stimulation techniques have the potential to provide tens to hundreds of gigawatts of clean electricity generation in the United States by 2050. With near-zero variable costs, geothermal plants have traditionally been envisioned as providing “baseload” power, generating at their maximum rated output at all times. However, as variable renewable energy sources (VREs) see greater deployment in energy markets, baseload power is becoming increasingly less competitive relative to flexible, dispatchable generation and energy storage. Herein we conduct an analysis of the potential for future geothermal plants to provide both of these services, taking advantage of the natural properties of confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs to store energy in the form of accumulated, pressurized geofluid and provide flexible load-following generation. We develop a linear optimization model based on multi-physics reservoir simulations that captures the transient pressure and flow behaviors within a confined, engineered geothermal reservoir. We then optimize the investment decisions and hourly operations of a power plant exploiting such a reservoir against a set of historical and modeled future electricity price series. Further, we find that operational flexibility and in-reservoir energy storage can significantly enhance the value of geothermal plants in markets with high VRE penetration, with energy value improvements of up to 60% relative to conventional baseload plants operating under identical conditions. Across a range of realistic subsurface and operational conditions, our modeling demonstrates that confined, engineered geothermal reservoirs can provide large and effectively free energy storage capacity, with round-trip storage efficiencies comparable to those of leading grid-scale energy storage technologies. Optimized operational strategies indicate that flexible geothermal plants can provide both short- and long-duration energy storage, prioritizing output during periods of high electricity prices. Sensitivity analysis assesses the variation in outcomes across a range of subsurface conditions and cost scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Impact of refrigerant undercharge faults on building indoor conditions and HVAC system operation in residential Buildings: A simulation study

This study investigates the impact of refrigerant undercharge on indoor temperature and HVAC system performance in residential buildings. Simulation models for typical residential buildings in Orlando, FL and Indianapolis, IN were developed using the ResStock database. A refrigerant undercharge fault model was then applied to the simulations with varying levels of fault intensity. The paper offers an extensive analysis, revealing that variations in supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and cooling energy consumption due to the level of refrigerant undercharge faults are notably significant on a summer representative day. Similarly, on a winter representative day, changes in supply air temperature and runtime are significant as well as changes in supplemental heat energy consumption. We find that occupants may remain oblivious to these faults during the cooling season, particularly when the HVAC system is oversized; in that case, supply air temperature data could help detect a fault. Another challenge is that during the heating season, when the supplemental heater operates, it is difficult to identify a refrigerant undercharge fault using only indoor and supply air temperature data. Finally, this study finds that supply air temperature, equipment runtime, and supplemental heater energy consumption data can help in detecting refrigerant undercharge faults.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High-pressure ignition delay time measurements of a four-component gasoline surrogate and its high-level blends with ethanol and methyl acetate

Ignition delay times of a gasoline surrogate (iso-octane/toluene/n-heptane/1-hexene at 55/25/15/5% by liquid volume, developed in McCormick et al. 2017) with high-level bioblendstock-gasoline surrogate blends (50% and 85% biofuel by liquid volume of each ethanol and methyl acetate) were collected behind reflected shock waves. Post-reflected-shock temperatures ranged from 968 to 1361 K at pressures of about 4, 10, 25, and 50 atm. Data were collected for real fuel–air mixtures at fuel lean and stoichiometric conditions (φ = 0.5, 1.0) with focus on the more-practical, fuel-lean conditions. Ignition delay times were measured from OH* chemiluminescence around 307 nm using an endwall diagnostic. The RON and MON of the surrogate were 90.3 and 84.7, respectively. Ethanol was chosen due to its wide use in flex-fuel vehicles and availability, while also providing an increased octane rating. Methyl acetate was chosen for its especially high octane rating to investigate the effect of an extreme case. To validate the gasoline surrogate, the data are compared to real gasoline (RD387) and several gasoline surrogate experiments from the literature. Using the wide range of pressures studied, the gasoline surrogate’s pressure dependence was quantified to account for test-to-test variations using regression analysis. Similarly, a global correlation for gasoline and its surrogates was developed using all available data from the literature. Two modern chemical kinetics models targeting gasoline and its surrogates are compared to the ignition delay time measurements. These new high-pressure, high-bioblendstock concentration tests provide required chemical kinetic data for optimizing fuel and engine design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Directed energy deposition of radially functionally graded nickel based superalloys IN625 and IN738: Microstructure and mechanical properties

This study investigates the microstructure and mechanical properties of radially functionally graded (RFG) materials fabricated from nickel-based superalloys IN625 and IN738 using directed energy deposition (DED). RFG cylindrical deposits with radial gradients of IN625-IN738 and IN738-IN625 were successfully fabricated and confirmed to be crack-free through tailored composition grading, scan strategy and process parameters that minimized thermal gradients and solidification velocities. Microstructural analysis revealed distinct variations across the gradient, characterized by differences in dendrite arm spacing, microsegregation, and the formation of distinct γ' precipitates and carbide/boride phases (MC, M 6 C, M 2 C, and MB 2 ) in as-deposited (AD) conditions, which evolved into M 23 C 6 and M 2 B upon subsequent heat treatment (HT). EBSD showed predominant columnar grains with a [100] texture, while microhardness profiles demonstrated consistent variation across the gradients. Mechanical testing highlighted the synergy of the graded structure, combining IN738's strength with IN625's ductility, resulting in enhanced properties such as a yield strength of 1131 MPa, ultimate tensile strength of 1382 MPa, and elongation of 12 % for HT IN625-IN738 grading. Numerical simulations employing CALPHAD thermodynamic calculations and finite element thermal modeling are used to establish phase evolution and microstructural feature correlation with thermal profiles, aiding in the optimization of process-structure-property relationship.

Additive manufacturing↗

Analysis of fission product distribution and composition in the TRISO layers of AGR-2 fuel

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Qualification and Development Program's second irradiation experiment focuses on the performance of fuel particles produced in an industrial-scale coating system. Ongoing post-irradiation examination efforts include exploration of tristructural-isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel in the as-irradiated state and subjected to elevated temperatures to simulate accident conditions (safety testing). Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) analysis with energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) was used to show the distribution of fission products within the TRISO layers. The SEM analysis showed a variation of fission product distribution within the TRISO layers based on irradiation temperature, burnup, individual particle fission product inventory retention, safety testing history and kernel composition. Finally, a key observation is that particles which likely experienced higher temperature showed a greater diversity and distribution of fission products and actinides in the IPyC and SiC layers, implying that temperature is a dominant variable influencing the transport of radionuclides in TRISO particles.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Numerical wave modeling for operational and survival analyses of wave energy converters at the US Navy Wave Energy Test Site in Hawaii

The US Navy Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) is currently operating three grid-connected berths off Marine Corps Base Hawaii in support of technological development through scaled-model testing and pre-commercial prototyping. The location on the east shore of Oahu is open to year-round wind waves and seasonal north swells as well as severe seas from subtropical systems and hurricanes. We have assembled a spectral wave model system comprising WAVEWATCH III and SWAN on a hierarchy of global, regional, and nearshore computational grids. With wind forcing from global forecast and rean-alysis datasets as well as their regional downscaling, the system produces operational 7-day wave forecasts and a long-term hindcast. The daily forecasts, validated with real-time buoy measurements, facilitate safe deployment, operation, and retrieval of wave energy converters (WECs). The wave hindcast from 1979 to 2017 defines the intra- and inter-annual variations for statistical analysis of sea states and energy resources. Due to limited occurrences of hurricanes in Hawaii waters, their wind forcing is determined parametrically with simulated tracks from climate model downscaling. Finally, systematic analysis of the hindcast and simulation datasets provides significant wave heights from trade winds, swells, subtropical systems, and hurricanes with return periods up to 100 years for WECs survival analysis.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗