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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Warm boundary-layer cloud properties and cloud susceptibilities product at the ARM ENA observatory

Cloud liquid water path, albedo, and cloud fraction susceptibilities for marine warm boundary-layer clouds are quantified using the Meteosat retrieved cloud microphysical properties at the ARM Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory in the Azores. The Meteosat cloud retrievals are based on the methods applied by the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project, which are specifically tailored to support the ARM user facility over the ARM ground-based observation sites (enavisstpx2dm11minnisX1.c1). Cloud susceptibility is quantified as the slope between cloud properties and Nd within a 1-degree-by-1-degree grid box at each satellite time step using a least-square regression. To reduce uncertainties associated with the adiabatic assumption in the Nd retrieval, for each cloud object, we exclude cloudy pixels at the cloud edge, defined as those adjacent to cloud-free pixels. To minimize influence of cloud heterogeneity and co-variability on the retrieved cloud susceptibility, cloud properties are averaged to 0.25-degree resolution using the 3-km pixel-level retrieval, and the 1-degree cloud susceptibilities are estimated using the smoothed data. Cloud type classification is applied to distinct cloud object, labeling all contiguous cloudy pixels. Marine warm boundary-layer clouds are defined as clouds with 90% of cloud tops below 3km, and Meteosat retrieved cloud phase as liquid.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving GCM Representation of Convective Cloud Microphysics by Using ARM Raman Lidar and Cloud Radar Observations

The overall objective of this Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric System Research (ASR) funded project is to improve the representation of convective cloud microphysics in global climate models (GCMs) and check it by comparing the model simulations with observations. We have derived the cloud ice water content by synthesizing ARM Raman lidar (RL) and cloud radar observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) sites. Noting that the simulated anvil clouds in terms of their macro- and micro-physical properties are sensitive to the parameterization of convective microphysical processes, observed ice water content in anvil clouds provides a useful constraint on these parameterizations. We have improved the convective microphysics parameterization scheme by (1) considering sedimentation for cloud ice crystals that do not fall in the original scheme, (2) applying a new terminal velocity parameterization that depends on the environmental conditions for convective snow, (3) adding a new hydrometeor category, “rimed ice,” to the original four-class (cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain, and snow) scheme, and (4) allowing convective clouds to detrain snow particles into stratiform clouds. We have examined the impact of improved convective cloud microphysics parameterization on the simulated global climate from GCM simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Broadband and filter radiometers at Ross Island, Antarctica: detection of cloud ice phase versus liquid water influences on shortwave and longwave radiation

Abstract. Surface radiometer data from Ross Island, Antarctica, collected during the austral summer 2015–2016 by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), are used to evaluate how shortwave and longwave irradiance respond to changing cloud properties as governed by contrasting meteorological regimes. Shortwave atmospheric transmittance is derived from pyranometer measurements, and cloud conservative-scattering optical depth is derived from filter radiometer measurements at 870 nm. With onshore flow associated with marine air masses, clouds contain mostly liquid water. With southerly flow over the Transantarctic Mountains, orographic forcing induces substantial cloud ice water content. These ice and mixed-phase clouds attenuate more surface shortwave irradiance than the maritime-influenced clouds and also emit less longwave irradiance due to colder cloud base temperature. These detected irradiance changes are in a range that can mean onset or inhibition of surface melt over ice shelves. This study demonstrates how basic and relatively low-cost broadband and filter radiometers can be used to detect subtle climatological influences of contrasting cloud microphysical properties at very remote locations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Profiles of Radiative Fluxes at ENA

Profiles of radiative fluxes observed at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM)’s Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) observatory along with the ancillary measurements are reported. The below-cloud drizzle properties were derived by combining the data from the ceilometer and Ka-band ARM Zenith Radar (KAZR) following the technique explained by Ghate et al. (2021 JAMC). The cloud and drizzle water path values were derived from the brightness temperatures reported by the microwave radiometer following the technique of Cadeddu et al. (2020 AMT). The cloud water path was then scaled to the KAZR-reported radar reflectivity to calculate profiles of liquid water content (LWC). Following the analysis from Ghate et al. (2023 JGR), cloud droplet effective radius was calculated using the number concentration value of 100 cm-3. The cloud properties, along with the thermodynamic properties, served as an input to the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) to yield profiles of radiative fluxes at a 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution. The fluxes were then averaged to hourly temporal resolution for analysis. In Mitra et al. (2025 JClim), the calculated profiles were compared against those derived from the satellite measurements (SYN1deg). Flux profiles from the SYN1deg and the thermodynamic and cloud properties used for deriving them are also reported here. Both all-sky and clear-sky radiative flux profiles were calculated. Due to the large data volume, the surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes for the six-year period, and the hourly profiles of the radiative fluxes for January 2018, are submitted here. Full profiles of radiative fluxes calculated from the thermodynamic and cloud properties measured at the ENA site at 1-minute temporal and 50-m vertical resolution for a six-year period are available from the authors. Six files here correspond to the following data: 1_ENARAD_CERES_with_cld_amount_timeseries.nc: Time-series of hourly values of RRTM-simulated values of upwelling and downwelling fluxes at the surface and TOA, observed boundary-layer cloud fractions, and upwelling and downwelling fluxes from the SYN1deg from July 2015 to January 2022. 2_CERES_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: SYN1deg radiative fluxes at six levels for the year 2018. 3_ENARad_2018_at_CERES_levels.nc: RRTM calculated fluxes at the SYN1deg vertical levels for the year 2018. 4_ENARad_rrtminputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties used as an input to the RRTM for January 2018. 5_CERES_inputs_hourly_201801.nc: Thermodynamic and cloud properties utilized by SYN1deg algorithm for January 2018. 6_ENARAD_hourly_201801.nc: Full profiles of hourly averaged radiative fluxes from the RRTM simulations for January 2018.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2020

Observational Constraints on Warm Cloud Microphysical Processes Using Machine Learning and Optimization Techniques

We introduce new parameterizations for autoconversion and accretion rates that greatly improve representation of the growth processes of warm rain. The new parameterizations capitalize on machine‐learning and optimization techniques and are constrained by in situ cloud probe measurements from the recent Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program field campaign at Azores. The uncertainty in the new estimates of autoconversion and accretion rates is about 15% and 5%, respectively, outperforming existing parameterizations. Our results confirm that cloud and drizzle water content are the most important factors for determining accretion rates. However, for autoconversion, in addition to cloud water content and droplet number concentration, we discovered a key role of drizzle number concentration that is missing in current parameterizations. The robust relation between autoconversion rate and drizzle number concentration is surprising but real, and furthermore supported by theory. Thus, drizzle number concentration should be considered in parameterizations for improved representation of the autoconversion process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding aerosol–cloud interactions using a single-column model for a cold-air outbreak case during the ACTIVATE campaign

Marine boundary layer clouds play a critical role in Earth's energy balance. Their microphysical and radiative properties are highly impacted by ambient aerosols and dynamic forcings. In this study, we evaluate the representation of these clouds and related aerosol–cloud interaction processes in the single-column version of the E3SM climate model (SCM) against field measurements collected during the NASA ACTIVATE campaign over the western North Atlantic, as well as intercompare results with high-resolution process level models. We show that E3SM SCM reproduces the macrophysical properties of post-frontal boundary layer clouds in a cold-air outbreak (CAO) case well. However, it generates fewer but larger cloud droplets compared to aircraft measurements. Further sensitivity tests show that the underestimation of both aerosol number concentration and vertical velocity variance contributes to this bias. Aerosol–cloud interactions are examined by perturbing prescribed aerosol properties in E3SM SCM with fixed dynamics. Higher aerosol number concentration or hygroscopicity leads to more numerous but smaller cloud droplets, resulting in a stronger cooling via shortwave cloud forcing. This apparent Twomey effect is consistent with prior climate model studies. The cloud liquid water path shows a weakly positive relation with cloud droplet number concentration due to precipitation suppression. This weak aerosol effect on cloud macrophysics may be attributed to the dominant impact of strong dynamical forcing associated with the CAO. Our findings indicate that the SCM framework is a key tool to bridge the gap between climate models, process level models, and field observations to facilitate process level understanding.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Novel Aqueous Particle and Cloud Chemistry Processes of Biomass Burning Phenols and Their Potential to Form Secondary Organic Aerosols

Phenols emitted from biomass burning contribute significantly to secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation through the partitioning of semivolatile products formed from gas-phase chemistry and multiphase chemistry in aerosol liquid water and clouds. The aqueous-phase SOA (aqSOA) formed via hydroxyl radical (˙OH), singlet molecular oxygen ( 1 O 2 *), and triplet excited states of organic compounds ( 3 C*), which oxidize dissolved phenols in the aqueous phase, might play a significant role in the evolution of organic aerosol (OA). However, a quantitative and predictive understanding of aqSOA has been challenging. Here, we develop a stand-alone box model to investigate the formation of SOA from gas-phase ˙OH chemistry and aqSOA formed by the dissolution of phenols followed by their aqueous-phase reactions with ˙OH, 1 O 2 *, and 3 C* in cloud droplets and aerosol liquid water. Here, we investigate four phenolic compounds, i.e., phenol, guaiacol, syringol, and guaiacyl acetone (GA), which represent some of the key potential sources of aqSOA from biomass burning in clouds. For the same initial precursor organic gas that dissolves in aerosol/cloud liquid water and subsequently reacts with aqueous phase oxidants, we predict that the aqSOA formation potential (defined as aqSOA formed per unit dissolved organic gas concentration) of these phenols is higher than that of isoprene-epoxydiol (IEPOX), a well-known aqSOA precursor. Cloud droplets can dissolve a broader range of soluble phenols compared to aqueous aerosols, since the liquid water contents of aerosols are orders of magnitude smaller than cloud droplets. Further, our simulations suggest that highly soluble and reactive multifunctional phenols like GA would predominantly undergo cloud chemistry within cloud layers, while gas-phase chemistry is likely to be more important for less soluble phenols. But in the absence of clouds, the condensation of low-volatility products from gas-phase oxidation followed by their reversible partitioning to organic aerosols dominates SOA formation, while the SOA formed through aqueous aerosol chemistry increases with relative humidity (RH), approaching 40% of the sum of gas and aqueous aerosol chemistry at 95% RH for GA. Our model developments of biomass-burning phenols and their aqueous chemistry can be readily implemented in regional and global atmospheric chemistry models to investigate the aqueous aerosol and cloud chemistry of biomass-burning organic gases in the atmosphere.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part II: Evaluation and Resolution Sensitivity

A wide range of approaches exists to account for subgrid cloud variability in regional simulations of the atmosphere. This paper addresses the following questions: 1) Is there still benefit in representing subgrid variability of cloud in convection-permitting simulations? 2) What is the sensitivity to the cloud fraction parameterization complexity? 3) Are current cloud fraction parameterizations scale-aware across convection-permitting resolutions? These questions are addressed for regional simulations of a 6-week observation campaign in the U.S. southern Great Plains. Particular attention is given to a new diagnostic cloud fraction scheme with a bimodal subgrid saturation-departure PDF, described in Part I. The model evaluation is performed using ground-based remote sensing synergies, satellite-based retrievals, and surface observations. It is shown that not using a cloud fraction parameterization results in underestimated cloud frequency and water content, even for stratocumulus. The use of a cloud fraction parameterization does not guarantee improved cloud property simulations, however. Diagnostic and prognostic cloud schemes with a symmetric subgrid saturation-departure PDF underestimate cloud fraction and cloud optical thickness, and hence overestimate surface shortwave radiation. These schemes require empirical bias-correction techniques to improve the cloud cover. The new cloud fraction parameterization, introduced in Part I, improves cloud cover, liquid water content, cloud-base height, optical thickness, and surface radiation compared to schemes reliant on a symmetric PDF. Furthermore, cloud parameterizations using turbulence-based, rather than prescribed constant subgrid variances, are shown to be more scale-aware across convection-permitting resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction, but these changes are subject to large uncertainties. Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions. However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks. Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing the sensitivity of aerosol mass budget and effective radiative forcing to horizontal grid spacing in E3SMv1 using a regional refinement approach

Abstract. Atmospheric aerosols have important impacts on air quality and the Earth–atmospheric energy balance. However, as computing power is limited, Earth system models generally use coarse spatial grids and parameterize finer-scale atmospheric processes. These parameterizations and the simulation of atmospheric aerosols are often sensitive to model horizontal resolutions. Understanding the sensitivities is necessary for the development of Earth system models at higher resolutions with the deployment of more powerful supercomputers. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1, this study investigates the impact of horizontal grid spacing on the simulated aerosol mass budget, aerosol–cloud interactions, and the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols (ERFaer) over the contiguous United States. We examine the resolution sensitivity by comparing the nudged simulation results for 2016 from the low-resolution model (LR) and the regional refinement model (RRM). As expected, the simulated emissions of natural dust, sea salt, and marine organic matter are substantially higher in the RRM than in the LR. In addition, RRM simulates stronger aqueous-phase production of sulfate through the enhanced oxidation of sulfur dioxide by hydrogen peroxide due to increased cloud liquid water content. In contrast, the gas-phase chemical production of sulfate is slightly suppressed. The RRM resolves more large-scale precipitation and produces less convective precipitation than the LR, leading to increased (decreased) aerosol wet scavenging by large-scale (convective) precipitation. Regarding aerosol effects on clouds, RRM produces larger temporal variabilities in the large-scale liquid cloud fractions than LR, resulting in increased microphysical cloud processing of aerosols (more interstitial aerosols are converted to cloud-borne aerosols via aerosol activation) in RRM. Water vapor condensation is also enhanced in RRM compared to LR. Consequently, the RRM simulation produces more cloud droplets, a larger cloud droplet radius, a higher liquid water path, and a larger cloud optical depth than the LR simulation. A comparison of the present-day and pre-industrial simulations indicates that, for this contiguous United States domain, the higher-resolution increases ERFaer at the top of the model by about 12 %, which is mainly attributed to the strengthened indirect effect associated with aerosol–cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Frigid Mixed-Phase Clouds for Pristine Coastal Antarctica

Supercooled water is common in the clouds near coastal Antarctica and occasionally occurs at temperatures at or below -30°C. Yet the ice physics in most regional and global numerical models will glaciate out these clouds. This presents a challenge for the simulation of highly supercooled clouds that were observed at McMurdo, Antarctica during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) project during 2015–2017. The polar optimized version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) with the recently developed two-moment P3 microphysics scheme was used to simulate observed supercooled liquid water cases during March and November 2016. Nudging of the simulations to observed rawinsonde profiles and Antarctic automatic weather station observations provided increased realism and much greater cloud water amounts. Furthermore, sensitivity tests that adjust the ice physics for extremely low ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations decrease cloud ice and increases the cloud liquid water closer to observed amounts. In these tests, a liquid layer near cloud top is simulated, in agreement with observations. Accurate representation of INP concentrations appears to be critical for the simulation of coastal Antarctic clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

What Are the Similarities and Differences in Marine Boundary Layer Cloud and Drizzle Microphysical Properties During the ACE–ENA and MARCUS Field Campaigns?

This study compares macrophysical and microphysical properties of single-layered, liquid-dominant MBL clouds from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) (above 60°S) and the ARM East North Atlantic (ENA) site during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. A total of 1,136 (16.5% of clouds) and 6,034 5-min cloud samples are selected from MARCUS and ARM ENA in this study. MARCUS clouds have higher cloud-top heights, thicker cloud layers, larger liquid water path, and colder cloud temperatures than ENA. Thinner, warmer MBL clouds at ENA can contain higher layer-mean liquid water content due to higher cloud and ocean surface temperatures along with greater precipitable water vapor (PWV). MARCUS has a higher drizzle frequency rate (71.8%) than ENA (45.1%). Retrieved cloud and drizzle microphysical properties from each field campaign show key differences. MARCUS clouds feature smaller cloud droplets, whereas ENA clouds have larger cloud droplets, especially at the upper region of the cloud. From cloud top to cloud base, drizzle drop sizes increase while number concentrations decrease. Drizzle drop radius and number concentration decrease from cloud base to drizzle base due to net evaporation, and MARCUS' lower specific humidity leads to a higher drizzle base than ENA. In conclusion, the broader surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability (LTS) distributions during MARCUS have demonstrated that there are different synoptic patterns for selected cases during MARCUS with less PWV, while ENA is dominated by high pressure systems with nearly doubled PWV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights into the relation between vertical cloud structure and dynamics of three polar lows: Observations from COMBLE

The vertical structure of three polar lows is described using profiling radar, lidar, and passive remote sensors deployed at a coastal site in northern Norway. The data were collected as part of the Cold-air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE). These data are examined in the context of satellite imagery, operational weather radar reflectivity imagery, and output from the AROME-Arctic model. A comparison to satellite images shows that AROME-Arctic captured the polar lows well. All three polar lows form in marine cold-air outbreaks and are surrounded by open-cellular convection typical of such outbreaks. Two of the lows form in a forward shear environment, and one under reverse shear. Initially, the three polar lows are comma-shaped; two of them transition to be more spirali-form at their mature stage and have mostly cloud-free warm cores. The warm cores are the result of a warm-seclusion process. All three lows have stratiform precipitation bands, marked by little cloud liquid water, and rather high surface precipitation rate. The vertical drafts and turbulence in these stratiform clouds are generally weak. In conclusion, all three lows also have convective clouds, which have stronger vertical drafts, stronger turbulence, and pockets of high liquid water content.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing CLUBB PDF Closure Assumptions for a Continental Shallow-to-Deep Convective Transition Case Over Multiple Spatial Scales

Assumed-PDF (probability density function) higher-order turbulence closures (APHOCs) are now widely used for parameterizing boundary layer turbulence and shallow convection in Earth system models (ESMs). A better understanding of the resolution-dependent behavior of APHOCs is essential for improving the performance of next-generation ESMs with intended horizontal resolutions finer than 10 km. In this study, we evaluate the PDF family of Analytic double-Gaussian 1 implemented in Cloud Layers Unified By Binormals (CLUBB) over a range of spatial scales (Dx) from 2 to 100 km. A 120-km-wide large eddy simulation (LES) for a continental convection case during 2016 Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE) field campaign serves as benchmark to evaluate the PDF closure using an off-line approach. We find during the shallow convection period, the CLUBB PDF closure tends to produce positive biases of cloud properties and liquid water flux near cloud base for all scales of analysis. It produces negative biases for these variables near cloud top that are more severe for Dx larger than 25 km. Results show that replacing the CLUBB-parameterized moisture and temperature skewnesses with LES-derived ones can fix most of the biases if clipping of input moments is allowed to prevent the occurrence of unrealizable solutions. Overall, the performance of the PDF closure is better for smaller Dx = 2–5 km than for larger Dx = 50–100 km; for a given grid spacing, it is better when the convective clouds become deeper in the late afternoon. Likely causes for the resolution dependence and implications for improving the PDF closure are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

EPCAPE Stratiform Cloud Analysis for Radiative Properties Experiment (SCARPE) Field Campaign Report

A unique attribute of the Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE) is the availability of an elevated secondary measurement site just 5 km from the main U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) deployment on Scripps Pier. Mount Soledad, at 250 m elevation, offers the ability to frequently measure aerosol chemical and microphysical properties within the low-level Eastern Pacific coastal stratiform clouds that the AMF is observing from below. Based on the EPCAPE experiment design to deploy three major systems on Mount Soledad—the scanning radars, the Russell aerosol mobile laboratory, and an ARM microwave radiometer (MWR)—an additional plan was made to deploy a suite of Eppley Laboratory radiometers at this site to measure the radiative response to instantaneous changes in observed aerosol properties and MWR retrieved cloud liquid water path (LWP). This supplemental field campaign was proposed as the Stratiform Cloud Analysis for Radiative Properties Experiment (SCARPE).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Structure of Clouds and Precipitation During Arctic Cold–Air Outbreaks and Warm–Air Intrusions: Observations From COMBLE

The Arctic is marked by deep intrusions of warm, moist air, alternating with outbreaks of cold air down to lower latitudes. The typical vertical structure of clouds and precipitation during these two synoptic weather extremes is examined at a coastal site at 69°N in Norway. The Norwegian Sea is a corridor for warm-air intrusions (WAIs) and frequently witnesses cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). This study uses data from profiling radar, lidar, and microwave radiometer, radiosondes and other probes that were collected during the CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) between 1 December 2019 and 31 May 2020. Marine CAOs are defined in terms of thermal instability relative to the sea surface temperature, and WAIs in terms of equivalent potential temperature stratification between the surface and 850 hPa. Cloud structures in CAOs are convective, driven by strong surface heat fluxes over a long fetch of open water, with cloud tops rarely exceeding 6 km above sea level. The mostly open-cellular convection produces intermittent moderately-heavy precipitation at the observational site, notwithstanding the low precipitable water vapor (PWV). In contrast, WAIs are marked by high values of PWV and integrated vapor transport. Here, WAI clouds are synoptically driven, stratiform, with cloud tops often exceeding 5 km, sometimes layered, and generally producing persistent precipitation that can be heavier than in CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Fall and Rise of the Global Climate Model

Abstract Global models are an essential tool for climate projections, but conventional coarse‐resolution atmospheric general circulation models suffer from errors both in their parameterized cloud physics and in their representation of climatically important circulation features. A notable recent study by Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) documents a global model capable of reproducing the regime‐based effect of aerosols on cloud liquid water path expected from observational evidence. This may represent a significant advance in cloud process fidelity in global models. Such models can be expected to give a better estimate of the effective radiative forcing of the climate. If this advance in cloud process representation can be matched by advances in the representation of circulation features such as monsoons, then such models may also be able to navigate the complex tangle between spatially heterogeneous aerosol–cloud interactions and regional circulation patterns. This tight link between aerosol and circulation results in anthropogenic perturbations of climate variables of societal importance, such as regional rainfall distributions. Upcoming global models with km‐scale resolution may improve the regional circulation and be able to take advantage of the Terai et al. (2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ms002274) improvement in cloud physics. If so, an era of significantly improved regional climate projection capabilities may soon dawn. If not, then the improvement in cloud physics might spur intensified efforts on problems in model dynamics. Either way, based on the rapid changes in aerosol emissions in the near future, learning to make reliable projections based on biased models is a skill that will not go out of style.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗