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At least 109 records · Page 6

Tropical Cumulus Convection and Upward Propagating Waves in Middle Atmospheric GCMs

It is recognized that the resolved tropical wave spectrum can vary considerably between general circulation models (GCMs) and that these differences can have an important impact on the simulated climate. A comprehensive comparison of the waves is presented for the December-January-February period using high-frequency (three-hourly) data archives from eight GCMs and one simple model participating in the GCM Reality Intercomparison Project for SPARC (GRIPS). Quantitative measures of the structure and causes of the wavenumber-frequency structure of resolved waves and their impacts on the climate are given. Space-time spectral analysis reveals that the wave spectrum throughout the middle atmosphere is linked to variability of convective precipitation, which is determined by the parameterized convection. The variability of the precipitation spectrum differs by more than an order of magnitude between the models, with additional changes in the spectral distribution (especially the frequency). These differences can be explained primarily by the choice of different, cumulus par amet erizations: quasi-equilibrium mass-flux schemes tend to produce small variability, while the moist-convective adjustment scheme is most active. Comparison with observational estimates of precipitation variability suggests that the model values are scattered around the truth. This result indicates that a significant portion of the forcing of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is provided by waves with scales that are not resolved in present-day GCMs, since only the moist convective adjustment scheme (which has the largest transient variability) can force a QBO in models that have no parameterization of non-stationary gravity waves. Parameterized cumulus convection also impacts the nonmigrating tides in the equatorial region. In most of the models, momentum transport by diurnal nonmigrating tides in the mesosphere is larger than that by Kelvin waves, being more significant than has been thought. It is shown that the equatorial semi-annual oscillation in the models examined is driven mainly by gravity waves with periods shorter than three days, with at least some contribution from parameterized gravity waves; the contribution from the ultra-fast zonal wavenumber-1 Kelvin waves is negligible.

Horinouchi, T.↗

Coupled wave-current modeling for hydrodynamic load analysis of macroalgae cultivation farms

Large-scale cultivation of macroalgae is one of the most promising biofuel sources that could reduce our consumption of fossil fuels and would be particularly economically competitive when grown for the co-production of additional goods such as food and textiles. Current production of biofuel from algal biomass is limited by labor costs and lack of data on potential impacts of cultivation and harvesting on marine and coastal environments as well as a comprehensive characterization of the impact of environmental conditions on macroalgal feedstock and their bioproduct and biofuel yield and quality. Awarded by the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Macroalgae Research Inspiring Novel Energy Resources (MARINER) program, which seeks to enable the U.S. as a global leader in the production of marine biomass, the Marine Biological Laboratory (MBL) has been developing a test system for tropical seaweed cultivation in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. An integral step in designing macroalgae cultivation farms is to adequately characterize the hydrodynamic climate at potential growth sites. In regions like the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, which are highly exposed to tropical cyclones, it is critical to not only consider the day-to-day hydrodynamic conditions but to also assess the risk of extreme sea states to ensure the survivability of future macroalgae farms. Under these considerations, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is providing modeling support for MBL to inform the design and siting of the farm systems that have been proposed for their ARPA-E MARINER project. This report describes the development of a high-resolution coupled storm surge and wave model to simulate the hydrodynamics and wave climate at proposed macroalgae cultivation sites selected by MBL in Florida and Puerto Rico. Model results, including model validation, water level, current distributions, and sea states, are discussed for both selected sites in Florida and Puerto Rico coast. These simulations provide an accurate insight into the hydrodynamic conditions that a macroalgae farm is likely to experience during its operational lifetime, including current information to support fine-scale hydrodynamic load modeling, risk analysis and system design.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Sediment transport and morphodynamic changes due to upstream variation and sea level rise on the Western Mekong Delta, Vietnam

The hydrological and morphological dynamics across the Vietnam Mekong Delta (VMD) coastline are increasingly shaped by human interventions and climate change, affecting the sustainability of socio-economic environments. This study employs the TELEMAC-MASCARET modeling system (TELEMAC-2D, TOMAWAC, and SISYPHE modules) to simulate hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and morphological changes for a 10-year period under baseline (SC1) and future climate (SC2) scenarios, considering wave climatology of Northeast (NEM) and Southwest monsoons (SWM). The results of sedimentation and erosion were analyzed across five key coastal zones from Ca Mau Cape (KV1) to Ha Tien (KV5). Model results highlight distinct seasonal patterns of sediment redistribution shaped by monsoonal flows, wave action, and seabed morphology. During the NEM, sediment deposition is concentrated near estuarine zones, while the SWM favors offshore sediment accumulation due to perpendicular wave actions, and shallow, gently sloping bathymetry that dissipates wave energy. Coastal erosion predominantly occurs at convex shoreline features subjected to stronger coastal currents, particularly in fine-grained sediment areas. Under future sea level rise and land subsidence scenarios, reduced flow velocities lead to lower bottom shear stress, promoting deposition and mitigating erosion problems despite increased wave energy. Besides that, sediment transport analyses across 14 cross-sections (C-S) reveal a southward trend during the NEM and a northward reversal during the SWM, with upstream sediment reductions primarily influencing near-estuarine zones and exerting minimal impact beyond the mid-coastal regions. Furthermore, these findings advance the understanding of sediment redistribution processes under climate change and seasonal change, and provide a scientific basis for adaptive coastal management and sustainable development.

Climate change↗

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗

Multi-scenario Extreme Weather Simulator application to heat waves: Ko’olauloa community resilience hub

Heat waves are increasing in severity, duration, and frequency. The Multi-Scenario Extreme Weather Simulator (MEWS) models this using historical data, climate model outputs, and heat wave multipliers. In this study, MEWS is applied for planning of a community resilience hub in Hau'ula, Hawaii. The hub will have normal operations and resilience operations modes. Both these modes were modeled using EnergyPlus. The resilience operations mode includes cutting off air conditioning for many spaces to decrease power requirements during emergencies. Results were simulated for 300 future weather files generated by MEWS for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080. Shared socioeconomic pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0 and 5-8.5 were used. The resilience operations mode results show two to six times increase of hours of exceedance beyond 32.2 °C from present conditions, depending on climate scenario and future year. The resulting decrease in thermal resilience enables an average decrease of energy use intensity of 26% with little sensitivity to climate change. The decreased thermal resilience predicted in the future is undesirable, but was not severe enough to require a more energy-intensive resilience mode. Instead, planning is needed to assure vulnerable individuals are given prioritized access to air-conditioned parts of the hub if worst-case heat waves occur.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Gravity Wave Variances and Propagation Derived from AIRS Radiances

As the first gravity wave (GW) climatology study using nadir-viewing infrared sounders, 50 Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiance channels are selected to estimate GW variances at pressure levels between 2-100 hPa. The GW variance for each scan in the cross-track direction is derived from radiance perturbations in the scan, independently of adjacent scans along the orbit. Since the scanning swaths are perpendicular to the satellite orbits, which are inclined meridionally at most latitudes, the zonal component of GW propagation can be inferred by differencing the variances derived between the westmost and the eastmost viewing angles. Consistent with previous GW studies using various satellite instruments, monthly mean AIRS variance shows large enhancements over meridionally oriented mountain ranges as well as some islands at winter hemisphere high latitudes. Enhanced wave activities are also found above tropical deep convective regions. GWs prefer to propagate westward above mountain ranges, and eastward above deep convection. AIRS 90 field-of-views (FOVs), ranging from +48 deg. to −48 deg. off nadir, can detect large-amplitude GWs with a phase velocity propagating preferentially at steep angles (e.g., those from orographic and convective sources). The annual cycle dominates the GW variances and the preferred propagation directions for all latitudes. Indication of a weak two-year variation in the tropics is found, which is presumably related to the Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). AIRS geometry makes its out-tracks capable of detecting GWs with vertical wavelengths substantially shorter than the thickness of instrument weighting functions. The novel discovery of AIRS capability of observing shallow inertia GWs will expand the potential of satellite GW remote sensing and provide further constraints on the GW drag parameterization schemes in the general circulation models (GCMs).

AIRS↗

Exploring the Spatial Relationship Between Demographic Indicators and the Built Environment of a City

In addition to global and regional drivers of urbanization, neighborhood development in urban areas across the United States has been shown to be influenced by various local socio-economic factors. These factors, despite varying across socio-economic groups, have large implications regarding a population’s vulnerability to extreme climate events, including heat waves resulting in adverse health impacts. Additionally, the demographics of an urban area can shape its infrastructural characteristics, causing different populations groups to face varying levels of risks and benefits. As a result, the urban morphology and socio-economic characteristics of a city are deeply intertwined; however, their interactions on a finer scale are not yet fully understood. This research aims to better understand the relationships between various socio-economic factors and the built environment of a city, considering variability in building types, and temperature patterns. This research focuses on the city of Las Vegas, NV, and uses spatial data analysis to understand the correlation between of socio-economic characteristics, building morphology, building characteristics, and temperature data to understand the correlation between these various factors. Results of these research shows there is a distinct pattern of clustering of socio-economic characteristics with the city and there is a distinct correlation between age and cost, socio-economic characteristics, and locations of high heat distribution within the city.

Singh, Ridhima↗

Orographic Cirrus and Its Radiative Forcing in NCAR CAM6

Cirrus clouds play an important role in the Earth's radiative energy budget, thereby affecting the climate state and climate change. Orographic gravity wave (OGW)-induced sub-grid scale vertical velocity (i.e., cooling rate) is not resolved by large-scale models and its impact on ice formation in cirrus clouds is not well quantified. In this study, one sub-grid scale OGW scheme (e.g., McFarlane) is used in the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) to generate vertical velocity variance (σw) for cirrus formation. Results from the default model and simulations with the OGW-induced σw are evaluated against the DOE ARM Small Particles in Cirrus (SPARTICUS) campaign observations. The OGW based on the McFarlane scheme increases the sub-grid scale σw over mountains compared to the default model and improves the model agreement with the SPARTICUS observations. Larger σ w due to OGWs can trigger more frequent homogeneous nucleation in orographic cirrus and generates a higher number concentration of ice crystals observed during the SPARTICUS campaign. Moreover, our evaluation of the model simulations against satellite observations indicates that the McFarlane scheme generates high in-cloud ice number concentrations (>200 L -1 ) in the upper troposphere over mountains and high plateaus at mid- and high-latitudes of the winter hemisphere as shown in the observations. More ice crystals with smaller sizes absorb more infrared radiation (+0.523 ± 0.125 W m -2 ). The net radiative cloud forcing change at the top of the atmosphere is +0.330 W m -2 due to the orographic cirrus.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations

Abstract Interconnections between ocean basins are recognized as an important driver of climate variability. Recent modeling evidence suggests that the North Atlantic climate can respond to persistent warming of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the rest of the tropics (rTIO). Here, we use observational data to demonstrate that multi-decadal changes in pantropical ocean temperature gradients lead to variations of an SST-based proxy of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The largest contribution to this temperature gradient-AMOCconnection comes from gradients between the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. TherTIOindex yields the strongest connection of this tropical temperature gradient to theAMOC. Focusing on the internally generated signal in three observational products reveals that an SST-basedAMOCproxy index has closely followed low-frequency changes ofrTIOtemperature with about 26-year lag since 1870. Analyzing the pre-industrial control simulations of 44 CMIP6 climate models shows that theAMOCproxy index lags simulated mid-latitudeAMOCvariations by 4 ± 4 years. These model simulations reveal the mechanism connectingAMOCvariations to pantropical ocean temperature gradients at a 27 ± 2 years lag, matching the observed time lag in 28 out of the 44 analyzed models. rTIO temperature changes affect the North Atlantic climate through atmospheric planetary waves, impacting temperature and salinity in the subpolar North Atlantic, which modifies deep convection and ultimately the AMOC. Through this mechanism, observed internalrTIOvariations can serve as a multi-decadal precursor ofAMOCchanges with important implications forAMOCdynamics and predictability.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

On the influence of ENSO complexity on Pan-Pacific coastal wave extremes

Significance This study demonstrates how the main wave regimes in the Pacific, in particular related to tropical and extratropical storm activity, are activated by different El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections patterns. By combining these robust relationships with the latest theoretical advances in ENSO research, a mathematical model of wave energy modulation is derived. It allows a better representation of wave extremes over a range of time scales wider than previously possible with the previous baseline understanding of ENSO’s influence on coastal impacts. This paves the way for unprecedented seasonal to monthly forecasts of coastal hazards around the densely populated Pacific basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Results of Application Demonstration of Autonomous Offshore Power System Supporting Multiple Mobile and Static Assets

Over the last decade, several technology trends have dominated the innovation cycle within the terrestrial economy. Electrification, cloud computing, decarbonization, digitization, and autonomy are representative examples of macro trends that have had a rapid and fundamental impact; an impact felt not only in user-facing technologies, such as electric vehicles and software-as-a-service, but also in the infrastructure required to deliver those technologies. However, the scale of the impact and rollout has not been felt equally between the terrestrial and ocean economies. Here, the innovation cycle in the ocean economy is significantly slower. What accounts for the difference and are there solutions to this issue?

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Jet Stream Errors and Tropospheric-stratospheric Interactions in the GLAS General Circulation Model

This project used the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences general circulation model (GCM) to explore the causes of erroneously weak shears above the subtropicl jet in GCMs. This problem was seen over the past 15 years of general circulation modeling both as a weak vertical shear and as a cold polar stratosphere. Although recent models now have closed zonal wind contours in their monthly Northern Hemisphere winter climatologies, the weak shears are still present in both winter, summer, Northern, and Southern hemispheres. Numerous hypotheses have been advanced to explain this failure including the rigid top, poor vertical resolution, incorrect modeling of radiative processes, and incorrect model generation of tropospheric waves. Although the Community Climate Model, attempted to deal with many of these causes, especially radiative processes, the problem is still present.

Tenenbaum, J.↗

IceCube SWIRP

Clouds, ice clouds in particular, are a major source of uncertainty in climate models. Submm-wave sensors fill the sensitivity gap between MW and IR.Cloud microphysical properties (particle size and shape) account for large (200 and 40) measurement uncertainty.

Wu, Dongliang L.↗

Altimetry for the Future: Building on 25 Years of Progress

In 2018 we celebrated 25 years of development of radar altimetry, and the progress achieved by this methodology in the fields of global and coastal oceanography, hydrology, geodesy and cryospheric sciences. Many symbolic major events have celebrated these developments, e.g., in Venice, Italy, the 15th (2006) and 20th (2012) years of progress and more recently, in 2018, in Ponta Delgada, Portugal, 25 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry. On this latter occasion it was decided to collect contributions of scientists, engineers and managers involved in the worldwide altimetry community to depict the state of altimetry and propose recommendations for the altimetry of the future. This paper summarizes contributions and recommendations that were collected and provides guidance for future mission design, research activities, and sustainable operational radar altimetry data exploitation. Recommendations provided are fundamental for optimizing further scientific and operational advances of oceanographic observations by altimetry, including requirements for spatial and temporal resolution of altimetric measurements, their accuracy and continuity. There are also new challenges and new openings mentioned in the paper that are particularly crucial for observations at higher latitudes, for coastal oceanography, for cryospheric studies and for hydrology. The paper starts with a general introduction followed by a section on Earth System Science including Ocean Dynamics, Sea Level, the Coastal Ocean, Hydrology, the Cryosphere and Polar Oceans and the ‘‘Green” Ocean, extending the frontier from biogeochemistry to marine ecology. Applications are described in a subsequent section, which covers Operational Oceanography, Weather, Hurricane Wave and Wind Forecasting, Climate projection. Instruments’ development and satellite missions’ evolutions are described in a fourth section. A fifth section covers the key observations that altimeters provide and their potential complements, from other Earth observation measurements to in situ data. Section 6 identifies the data and methods and provides some accuracy and resolution requirements for the wet tropospheric correction, the orbit and other geodetic requirements, the Mean Sea Surface, Geoid and Mean Dynamic Topography, Calibration and Validation, data accuracy, data access and handling (including the DUACS system). Section 7 brings a transversal view on scales, integration, artificial intelligence, and capacity building (education and training). Section 8 reviews the programmatic issues followed by a conclusion.

Saleh Abdalla↗

Portland Urban Development: Quantifying and Visualizing Urban Heat with Compounding Vulnerabilities to Support Community Depaving Initiatives

Urban heat is a pressing concern in Portland, Oregon as climate change induced heat waves increase. Cities experience higher temperatures due to the urban heat island effect (UHI), and environmental injustice and disenfranchisement in minority communities expose low-income and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) residents to more extreme and debilitating heat events. Our team identified Portland’s communities on the frontlines of urban heat impacts by overlapping environmental and social vulnerabilities using NASA Earth observations. We partnered with Depave, a Portland-based nonprofit that works alongside communities to replace pavement with greenspace in historically disenfranchised areas. Using Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) imagery, we mapped Land Surface Temperature (LST) and developed a heat-specific Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) through a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify Portland’s communities with the highest potential heat vulnerability. Then, we calculated the temperature change of depaving in six case studies to quantify Depave's efforts in heat mitigation and environmental justice. Our analysis demonstrated that, throughout Portland, there are frontline communities experiencing high potential social vulnerability to extreme temperatures due to environmental injustices and over-pavement. Finally, Depave’s impact on urban heat is observable and quantifiable using remote-sensing data and tools, with an average of 1ºF LST decrease across the six case studies. We illustrated the significance of local urban heat mitigation efforts and propose next steps for conducting inclusive and intentional research that highlights the lived experiences and resilience of frontline communities.

Environmental justice↗

Applications of MERRA-2 data for avian migration, biomass burning, and dusty atmospheric rivers

Three different applications of MERRA-2 data are presented. 1) Using radar data, we introduced a new concept for spatial patterns of bird migration across the contiguous U.S. This approach allowed us to use MERRA-2 data and learn that remote forcing in the tropical Pacific—through a chain of processes including atmospheric Rossby wave trains— controls the climatic conditions, associated with bird migration in North America. 2) We showed that emissions from biomass burning in the Congo Basin are partly controlled by the low-level winds, which are in turn associated with the intensity of the subtropical high in the Indian Ocean. Using back-trajectory analysis, we found that these emissions combined with their transport mechanism explain the interannual variability of black carbon in West Africa. 3) Our analysis showed that atmospheric rivers in the Middle East contribute to both heavy flood and dust transport within their corridor. We also found that warm advection and rain-on-snow effect of dusty atmospheric rivers further enhance the chance of flood through rapid snowmelt processes.

Amin Dezfuli↗

Applications of MERRA-2 Data for Avian Migration, Biomass Burning, and Dusty Atmospheric Rivers

Three different applications of MERRA-2 data are presented. 1) Using radar data, we introduced a new concept for spatial patterns of bird migration across the contiguous U.S. This approach allowed us to use MERRA-2 data and learn that remote forcing in the tropical Pacific—through a chain of processes including atmospheric Rossby wave trains— controls the climatic conditions, associated with bird migration in North America. 2) We showed that emissions from biomass burning in the Congo Basin are partly controlled by the low-level winds, which are in turn associated with the intensity of the subtropical high in the Indian Ocean. Using back-trajectory analysis, we found that these emissions combined with their transport mechanism explain the interannual variability of black carbon in West Africa. 3) Our analysis showed that atmospheric rivers in the Middle East contribute to both heavy flood and dust transport within their corridor. We also found that warm advection and rain-on-snow effect of dusty atmospheric rivers further enhance the chance of flood through rapid snowmelt processes.

Amin Dezfuli↗

Effect of Gravity Waves from Small Islands in the Southern Ocean on the Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation

The effect of small islands in the Southern Ocean on the atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere is considered with a series of simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model in which the gravity wave stress generated by these islands is increased to resemble observed values. The enhanced gravity wave drag leads to a 2 K warming of the springtime polar stratosphere, partially ameliorating biases in this region. Resolved wave drag declines in the stratospheric region in which the added orographic gravity waves deposit their momentum, such that changes in gravity waves are partially compensated by changes in resolved waves, though resolved wave drag increases further poleward. The orographic drag from these islands has impacts for surface climate, as biases in tropospheric jet position are also partially ameliorated. These results suggest that these small islands are likely contributing to the missing drag near 60 degrees S in the upper stratosphere evident in many data assimilation products.

chemistry-climate models↗