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At least 109 records · Page 6

Snowfall Rate Retrieval Using Passive Microwave Measurements and Its Applications in Weather Forecast and Hydrology

(AMSU), Microwave Humidity Sounder (MHS) and Advance Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS). ATMS is the follow‐on sensor to AMSU and MHS. Currently, an AMSU and MHS based land snowfall rate (SFR) product is running operationally at NOAA/NESDIS. Based on the AMSU/MHS SFR, an ATMS SFR algorithm has also been developed. The algorithm performs retrieval in three steps: snowfall detection, retrieval of cloud properties, and estimation of snow particle terminal velocity and snowfall rate. The snowfall detection component utilizes principal component analysis and a logistic regression model. It employs a combination of temperature and water vapor sounding channels to detect the scattering signal from falling snow and derives the probability of snowfall. Cloud properties are retrieved using an inversion method with an iteration algorithm and a two‐stream radiative transfer model. A method adopted to calculate snow particle terminal velocity. Finally, snowfall rate is computed by numerically solving a complex integral. The SFR products are being used mainly in two communities: hydrology and weather forecast. Global blended precipitation products traditionally do not include snowfall derived from satellites because such products were not available operationally in the past. The ATMS and AMSU/MHS SFR now provide the winter precipitation information for these blended precipitation products. Weather forecasters mainly rely on radar and station observations for snowfall forecast. The SFR products can fill in gaps where no conventional snowfall data are available to forecasters. The products can also be used to confirm radar and gauge snowfall data and increase forecasters' confidence in their prediction.

Meng, Huan↗

Atmospheric corrosion model and monitor for low cost solar arrays

An atmospheric corrosion model and corrosion monitoring system has been developed for low cost solar arrays (LSA). The corrosion model predicts that corrosion rate is the product of the surface condensation probability of water vapor and the diffusion controlled corrosion current. This corrosion model is verified by simultaneous monitoring of weather conditions and corrosion rates at the solar array test site at Mead, Nebraska.

Kaelble, D. H.↗

Total Lightning Activity Associated with Tornadic Storms

Prior studies have examined the association of lightning activity with the occurrence of severe weather. Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. Most recently, we have identified a rapid change (referred to as a "jump") in total flash rate which precedes the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification. In this paper we examine whether there exist unique characteristics of the total lightning and the lightning jumps associated with tornadoes in Florida, and explain how they might relate to the interaction of mesocyclonic shear, the rear flank downdraft and outflow boundaries that can lead to tornadogenesis. In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. The relatively long lead time between the lighting jump and the occurrence of the tornado is attributed to the time lag between updraft invigoration and the boundary layer spin up of vorticity.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

Prediction of Weather Impacted Airport Capacity using Ensemble Learning

Ensemble learning with the Bagging Decision Tree (BDT) model was used to assess the impact of weather on airport capacities at selected high-demand airports in the United States. The ensemble bagging decision tree models were developed and validated using the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) data and weather forecast at these airports. The study examines the performance of BDT, along with traditional single Support Vector Machines (SVM), for airport runway configuration selection and airport arrival rates (AAR) prediction during weather impacts. Testing of these models was accomplished using observed weather, weather forecast, and airport operation information at the chosen airports. The experimental results show that ensemble methods are more accurate than a single SVM classifier. The airport capacity ensemble method presented here can be used as a decision support model that supports air traffic flow management to meet the weather impacted airport capacity in order to reduce costs and increase safety.

Weather impact↗

Integration of New Technology Considering the Trade-Offs Between Operational Benefits and Risks: A Case Study of Dynamic Line Rating

Electric grid operators are adept at handling complexity and uncertainty. However, with increasing introduction of renewable generation, distributed energy resources, and more frequent severe weather events, operators will experience new workload and challenging decision scenarios. Here, this paper quantifies risks and benefits from an operator's perspective of introducing weather based forecast Dynamic Line Ratings (DLR) using variable wind conditions in addition to ambient temperature to relieve transmission congestion and facilitating more offshore wind (OSW). A concept of operations (CONOPS) applied to a forecast DLR implementation and its integration with OSW is defined. A method for evaluating tradeoffs of derating to make the rating more conservative but decreasing the benefit was developed and applied to a case study for two existing overhead transmission lines on Long Island, New York. The CONOPS uses historical day-ahead and hour-ahead High Resolution Rapid Refresh weather forecasts and weather station data to support planning and real-time operations. The analysis determines the risk of downgrades in real-time operational rating compared to the forecast and quantifies the frequency and severity of last-minute downgrades. The risk is compared against the benefits in increased capacity to provide insights on the additional amount of uncertainty DLR and OSW will add to the operator's workload.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Investigating Weathering of Basaltic Materials in Gale Crater, Mars: A Combined Laboratory, Modeling and Terrestrial Field Approach

Recent observations from Gale Crater, Mars document past aqueous alteration both in the formation of the Stimson sandstone unit, as well as in the formation of altered fractures within that unit. Geochemical and mineralogical data from Curiosity also suggest Fe-rich amorphous weathering products are present in most samples measured to date. Here we interpret conditions of possible past weathering in Gale Crater using a combination of field, laboratory, and modeling work. In order to better understand secondary Fe-rich phases on Mars, we are examining formation of weathering products in high Fe and Mg and low Al serpentine soils in the Klamath Mountains, CA. We have isolated potential weathering products from these soils, and are analyzing them using synchrotron μXRF and μXRD as well as FullPat for a direct comparison to analyses from Gale Crater. In order to interpret the implications of the persistence of potential secondary Fe-containing phases on Mars, we are also measuring the dissolution rates of the secondary weathering products allophane, Fe-rich allophane, and hisingerite. Ongoing dissolution experiments of these materials suggest that they dissolve significantly more rapidly than more crystalline secondary minerals with similar chemical compositions. Finally, to quantify the specific conditions of past aqueous alteration in Gale Crater we are performing reactive transport modeling of a range of possible past environmental conditions. Specifically, we are testing the conditions under which a Stimson unit-like material forms from a parent material similar to Rocknest or Bagnold eolian deposits, and the conditions under which observed altered fracture zones form from a Stimson unit-like parent material. Our modeling results indicate that the formation of the Stimson unit is consistent with leaching of an eolian deposit with a solution of pH = 6-8, and that formation of the altered fracture zones is consistent with leaching with a very acidic (pH = 2-3) high sulfate solution containing Ca. These results suggest circumneutral pH conditions during authigenesis or early diagenesis in the Stimson formation sediments followed by diagenetic alteration by very acidic solutions along fracture zones.

Hausrath, Elisabeth↗

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds, Temperature, and Moisture Measurements

A geosynchronous Lidar would enable synoptic measurement of atmospheric winds; temperature; and moisture, which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather predictive skills. Such capabilities would: a) yield greatly improved initial conditions for models, b) make obsolete existing (discrete) measurement approaches which are both costly and cumbersome, and c) obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present methods. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic Lidar observations would lead to improvements in model parameters, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. A Dial Lidar system could simultaneously measure winds, temperatures, and humidity through a combination of Doppler and Differential Absorption techniques. Also, such a system would provide basic aerosol (dry dust) measurement capabilities that could have an impact on Earth radiation budget measurements. On the technical side, a geosynchronous Lidar DAR system would require transmit optics of a few meters in diameter, a hundred meter diameter receive telescope, fineness of both optical systems scaled to the wavelength, and scanning for the transmit system. Potential technology issues include optical quality of large transmit and receive telescope optics, the large detector area needed, the transmit scanning system, signal detection (S/N ratio of detector system) for the extremely weak return signal at GEO, and power demands in the KW range.

Emmitt, Dave↗

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds and Moisture Measurements

An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosynchronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture, both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

A Geosynchronous Lidar System for Atmospheric Winds and Moisture Measurements

An observing system comprised of two lidars in geosychronous orbit would enable the synoptic and meso-scale measurement of atmospheric winds and moisture both of which are key first-order variables of the Earth's weather equation. Simultaneous measurement of these parameters at fast revisit rates promises large advancements in our weather prediction skills. Such capabilities would be unprecedented and a) yield greatly improved and finer resolution initial conditions for models, b) make existing costly and cumbersome measurement approaches obsolete, and c) obviate the use of numerical techniques needed to correct data obtained using present observing systems. Additionally, simultaneous synoptic wind and moisture observations would lead to improvements in model parameterizations, and in our knowledge of small-scale weather processes. Technology and science data product assessments are ongoing. Results will be presented during the conference.

Emmitt, G. D.↗

A Possible Explanation for the Z-R Parameter Inconsistency when Comparing Stratiform and Convective Rainfall

The well-known Z-R power law Z A R(sup b) uses two parameters, A and b, in order to relate rainfall rate R to measured weather radar reflectivity Z. A common method used by researchers is to compute Z and R from disdrometer data and then extract the A-b parameter pair from a log-linear line fit to a scatter plot of Z-R pairs. Even though it may seem far more truthful to extract the parameter pair from a fit of radar Z(sub R) versus gauge rainfall rate R(sub G), the extreme difference in spatial and temporal sampling volumes between radar and rain gauge creates a slew of problems that can generally only be solved by using rain gauge arrays and long sampling averages. Disdrometer derived A-b parameters are easily obtained and can provide information for the study of stratiform versus convective rainfall. However, an inconsistency appears when comparing averaged A-b pairs from various researchers. Values of b range from 1.26 to 1.51 for both stratiform and convective events. Paradoxically the values of A fall into three groups: 150 to 200 for convective; 200 to 400 for stratiform; and 400 to 500 again for convective. This apparent inconsistency can be explained by computing the A-b pair using the gamma DSD coupled with a modified drop terminal velocity model, v(D) alpha D(sup beta) - w, where w is a somewhat artificial constant vertical velocity of the air above the disdrometer. This model predicts three regions of A, corresponding to w less than 0, w = 0, and w greater than 0, which approximately matches observed data.

gamma DSD↗

Emergence of Diverse Failure Patterns in Weathering‐Induced Landslides: Insights From Particle Finite Element Simulations

Weathering is a fundamental driver of landslide evolution over geological timescales. Despite its ubiquity and importance, quantifying how weathering drives the progressive destabilization of rock slopes remains challenging. In this work, we develop a unified computational framework based on the particle finite element method to investigate the evolution of weathering‐induced landslides, from long‐term weathering to short‐term slope failure and runout dynamics. The framework integrates key processes, including weathering front propagation, time‐dependent strength degradation, rupture surface development, and post‐failure runout dynamics. Through numerical simulation experiments, we elucidate how interactions among weathering characteristics (type, intensity, and rate law), bedrock strength, fracture distribution, and slope geometry govern the failure modes and kinematics of weathering‐induced landslides. Simulations show that matrix‐dominated weathering leads to shallow translational failures, whereas fracture‐dominated weathering produces deep‐seated rotational and compound landslides. Pre‐existing fractures and slope morphology also strongly influence the movement of destabilized landmasses, affecting the failure pattern (e.g., kinematic mode and rupture surface geometry) and post‐failure behavior (e.g., runout velocity). We further demonstrate that the failure time and volume of weathered slopes are governed by the competition between gravitational driving forces and cohesive resisting forces during progressive destabilization. These findings provide new insights into the fundamental mechanisms that drive the emergence of diverse failure patterns of weathering‐induced landslides with important implications for landslide hazard assessment.

Wang, Liang [Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule↗

In-Flight Observations of Long-Term Single Event Effect(SEE)Performance on Orbview-2 and Xray Timing Explorer(XTE)Solid State Recorders (SSR)

This paper presents Single Event Effect (SEE) in-flight data on Solid State Recorders (SSR) that have been collected over a long period of time for two NASA spacecraft: Orbview-2 and XTE. SEE flight data on solid-state memories give an opportunity to study the behavior in space of SEE sensitive commercial devices. The actual Single Event Upset (SEU) rates can be compared with the calculated rates based on environment models and ground test data. The SEE mitigation schemes can also be evaluated in actual implementation. A significant amount of data has already been published concerning observed SEE effects on memories in space. However, most of the data presented cover either a short period of time or a small number of devices. The data presented here has been collected on a large number of devices during several years. This allows statistically significant information about the effect of space weather fluctuations on SEU rates, and the effectiveness of SEE countermeasures used to be analyzed. Only Orbview-2 data is presented in this summary. XTE data will be included in the final paper.

Poivey, Christian↗

Evolution of the Martian atmosphere: The role of the polar caps

Lines of evidence indicate that early in Mars' history, it had a much thicker CO2 atmosphere than it does today. A model was constructed for the evolution of the Martian atmosphere that self consistently calculates the rates at which CO2 is stored in Mars' polar reservoirs. Given some initial abundance, which is assumed to be entirely in the atmosphere, the model calculates the annually averaged temperature of the equatorial region and the polar region, and the planetwide mean. Thus far, results obtained for the case where CO2 condensation in the atmosphere is not a limiting factor. Results fall into two categories: initial inventories above 1 bar and below 1 bar. For inventories above 1 bar, CO2 is partitioned between the atmosphere and regolith with the latter taking up almost 800 mbar of CO2. The rest remains in the atmosphere and is weathered out at a rate proportional to atmospheric pressure. For values less than 1 bar, the evolution scenario is different, polar caps form immediately since there is not enough greenhouse warming to prevent CO2 from going into the regolith and thereby reducing the atmospheric pressure to levels where caps can form. The results do not favor either scenario.

Haberle, R. M.↗

Three dimensional cloud top changes related to thunderstorm severity

Digital infrared data from a geostationary satellite are used to study thunderstorm top growth rates and other parameters in relation to the occurrence of severe weather on the ground. Both the rate of upward growth of the thunderstorm top and the maximum height reached are shown to be useful parameters in the detection of severe thunderstorms.

Adler, R. F.↗

The Star Formation History of Orion and its Environs

During the period of performance, we have obtained the following observations and carried out the analysis of the Orion associations itemized below. Optical Photometry: The Quest camera that had been damaged by lightning on Sept. 2001 was reconfigured to use 10 chips and only 3 filters instead of the original 4 but retaining its spatial coverage of 2.3deg wide in declination. During the Winter and Fall 2002 observing campaigns, we obtained multifilter photometry using the Quest camera on the 1mt Schmidt of the Venezuelan National Observatory, to continue the survey of the Orion clouds. In the Winter 2002 season, we obtained photometry for 10 scans at DEC=+5, 7 scans at DEC=-5. Several additional scans at DEC=-3 were obtained during the Fall 2002 observing campaign. Slit spectroscopy of bright candidates: During 2002 spectra for some 235 candidate PMS stars were obtained with the FAST spectrograph at the SAO 1.5m telescope in Mt. Hopkins. These objects, all brighter than V=16, are located in two strips centered at DEC=+l and -5, and spanning from RA=5h-6h. The spectra are being analyzed. Multifiber spectroscopy: Spectroscopy for our fainter (V less than or equal to 16) candidates has not kept pace with our spectroscopy of brighter candidates, because of the delay in the commissioning of the Hectospec and Hectoechelle multi-object spectrographs at the new 6.5m MMT. We obtained some data with the Hydra spectrograph on the WIYN telescope: Feb 1-4, 2002. Time granted to the project: "A Large Scale Survey of the Low-Mass Young Population in the Orion OB1 Association" (P.I.: C. Briceno). Three half-nights (we used the first half of the night, the second half of the night was used with the Mini-Mosaic imager by another team). Only the first half night was clear. We observed 3 fields centered in a 2.3 deg wide strip centered at DEC=-1 and spanning RA=Sh to 6h. A total of 250 spectra were obtained for the same number of candidate PMS stars. Nov. 13-15, 2002. Time granted to the project "Cluster survey of protoplanetary disk evolution", (P.I.: A. Sicilia-Aguilar). Clear weather throughout. We obtained spectra for some 200 candidate PMS stars in 3 fields located in a 2.3 deg wide strip centered at DEC=+l and spanning from RA=5h20m to 5h35m. Data for both observing runs is partially reduced and is being analyzed. U photometry: During Nov.29-Dec.4, 2002 we were granted time with the 4-shooter CCD Mosaic Camera at the SAO 1.2m telescope, to obtain U-band photometry of a subset of the newly identified T Tauri stars in the strip centered at DEC=-1. This sample is composed of strong H(alpha) emitting PMS stars (Classical T Tauri stars) located mostly in the Orion OB lb association, around the Orion Belt area. Our data will be combined with our calibration of the U-band excess (Gullbring et al. 1998) to derive mass accretion rates. Because of bad weather we observed only 20 stars during 1.5 clear nights. Near IR photometry: During Dec. 14-19, 2002 we used the IR Camera on the SAO 1.2m telescope, to obtain L-band photometry of a set of 17 the newly identified Orion OB 1a and 1b stars, in order to look for IR excess emission coming from the hotter inner parts of circumstellar disks. Again, mediocre weather prevented a larger set to be observed. These stars were also observed with the OSCIR mid-IR camera on Gemini North during later 2001. Our goal is to construct SEDs from the visual out to the mid-IR (by combining our optical/IR data with 2MASS JHK magnitudes) in order to explore disk dissipation at the critical ages of 5-10 Myr spanned by these stars.

Calvet, Nuria↗

(abstract) Monitoring the Freeze/Thaw Transitions in Taiga Forests Using ERS-1 SAR

Automated recording stations have been installed at the Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest, a Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) site located near Fairbanks, Alaska, in a forest stand of the Tanana River floodplain underlain by discontinuous permafrost. These stations provide a continuous record of dielectric constant and temperature of tree trunks, and soil moisture and temperature profiles down to the root zone. Along with the weather stations deployed at the same location, these measurements provide a continuous record of the environmental and phenologic conditions of the forest during a complete seasonal cycle. At the same time, ERS-1 SAR imaged the study site repeatedly from space to provide radar backscatter measurements of the forest approximately three times a month. Here, we examine the temporal dynamic of ERS-1 SAR measurements in relation with the changing environmental and phenologic state of the forest canopy and of the forest ground layers during the winter/spring and fall/winter transitions of 1992 and 1993. During these transitions, we examine whether changes in radar backscatter observed by ERS-1 may be related to freezing or thawing of the soil and vegetation in order to determine the start and end of the growing season for the forest. The results of this analysis are used in turn to determine whether similar changes are observed over larger regions. Mosaics of SAR data generated along three different North-South Alaskan ERS-1 transects that intercept with our study site are used in combination with hourly air temperature and daily precipitation rates gathered at airport weather stations by the National Weather Service. Results obtained using ERS-1 data collected from January 1992 to mid-1993 will be discussed.

permafrost temporal dynamics Alaska ecology radar ↗

Optimized Illuminance Operation-A Light-Driven Dilution Strategy to Improve Microalgae Biomass Productivity

Periodic dilution is a necessary operation to avoid light limitation due to self-shading as the culture grows dense. However, environmental conditions are constantly changing in outdoor cultivation systems, making it difficult to determine the optimal dilution rate. To address this challenge, this study evaluated a dilution approach based on light penetration to optimize illuminance (OptiLum) in the culture. Biomass concentration was controlled via sensor-feedback directed dilution to ensure that light reaching the bottom of the culture was maintained above the compensation intensity. Under replicated outdoor pond conditions, by keeping the entire culture within a net-positive photosynthetic zone, the OptiLum operation improved the biomass productivities of two top-performing strains, Picochlorum celeri and Tetraselmis striata, by 95 % and 86 %, respectively, compared to conventional semi-continuous batch cultivation. The dilution rate varied daily and was dynamically adjusted based on the light status within the culture, which is concurrently influenced by weather, culture density, and growth rate. The techno-economic analysis showed that the OptiLum operation could reduce biomass production cost by as much as 24 % and 33 % for P. celeri and T. striata, respectively, assuming a low-cost dewatering approach with initial gravity settling of biomass can be realized for both strains. However, a more costly two-stage dewatering strategy, comprising only membranes and centrifuges, may be necessary for non-settling strains, such as P. celeri, which would alternatively increase production costs by 23 % for the OptiLum case. The results demonstrated that the proposed OptiLum operation is a promising approach to improve biomass productivity and lower production cost via weather-responsive and self-adjusting dilution.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗