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At least 109 records · Page 6

Prescribed fire selects for a pyrophilous soil sub‐community in a northern California mixed conifer forest

Abstract Prescribed fire is a critical strategy for mitigating the effects of catastrophic wildfires. While the above‐ground response to fire has been well‐documented, fewer studies have addressed the effect of prescribed fire on soil microorganisms. To understand how soil microbial communities respond to prescribed fire, we sampled four plots at a high temporal resolution (two burned, two controls), for 17 months, in a mixed conifer forest in northern California, USA. Using amplicon sequencing, we found that prescribed fire significantly altered both fungal and bacterial community structure. We found that most differentially abundant fungal taxa had a positive fold‐change, while differentially abundant bacterial taxa generally had a negative fold‐change. We tested the null hypothesis that these communities assembled due to neutral processes (i.e., drift and/or dispersal), finding that >90% of taxa fit this neutral prediction. However, a dynamic sub‐community composed of burn‐associated indicator taxa that were positively differentially abundant was enriched for non‐neutral amplicon sequence variants, suggesting assembly via deterministic processes. In synthesizing these results, we identified 15 pyrophilous taxa with a significant and positive response to prescribed burns. Together, these results lay the foundation for building a process‐driven understanding of microbial community assembly in the context of the classical disturbance regime of fire.

Microbiology↗

Toward an AI-Powered Software Pipeline for Real-Time Tracking and Analysis of Wildfire and Smoke

Real-time tracking of wildfires and smoke is crucial for effective response, minimizing damage, protecting lives, and efficiently managing resources during fire emergencies. We develop a web-based AI-powered pipeline that detects wildfires in aerial video and estimates deployment-relevant behavior metrics, including cumulative burned area, burned-area growth rate, fire spread direction, and smoke dispersion. The system combines a YOLO-based detector with YCbCr-based fire segmentation, HSV-based smoke segmentation, Farneback optical flow, and centroid-based spatiotemporal tracking. Using ground sampling distance (GSD), pixel-level fire masks are converted to physical burned-area measurements by correlating fire pixel counts with camera altitude and tilt angle. We benchmark YOLO variants and non-YOLO baselines (GoogLeNet, CNN, DBN, Autoencoder, U-Net, and AlexNet) on the IEEE FLAME dataset and a newly created aerial frame dataset, Wildfire-DB. Cross-dataset evaluation uses a strict threshold-transfer protocol: decision thresholds are selected on FLAME validation and transferred unchanged to Wildfire-DB to quantify generalization under domain shift. YOLOv6 achieves the strongest cross-dataset frame-level fire detection on Wildfire-DB (ROC-AUC 0.8200, PR-AUC 0.8044, and transferred-threshold F1 0.7596). For tracking-oriented deployment requiring oriented localization, YOLO11-OBB provides the most reliable cross-dataset behavior among OBB-capable models while remaining computationally feasible. To analyze the feasibility of UAV deployment, we further measure inference efficiency using synchronized GPU and CPU power logs on a fixed workload of 1569 frames. YOLO-family models process the video in 5.73–12.47 seconds with net energy of 1247.28–1775.39 J, substantially lower latency and energy than heavier classification and reconstruction baselines. Overall, model optimality depends on operational objectives: YOLOv6 is best for cross-dataset detection robustness, whereas YOL...

Color segmentation↗

Assessing climate change impacts on live fuel moisture and wildfire risk using a hydrodynamic vegetation model

Abstract. Live fuel moisture content (LFMC) plays a critical role in wildfire dynamics, but little is known about responses of LFMC to multivariate climate change, e.g., warming temperature, CO2 fertilization, and altered precipitation patterns, leading to a limited prediction ability of future wildfire risks. Here, we use a hydrodynamic demographic vegetation model to estimate LFMC dynamics of chaparral shrubs, a dominant vegetation type in fire-prone southern California. We parameterize the model based on observed shrub allometry and hydraulic traits and evaluate the model's accuracy through comparisons between observed and simulated LFMC of three plant functional types (PFTs) under current climate conditions. Moreover, we estimate the number of days per year of LFMC below 79 % (which is a critical threshold for wildfire danger rating of southern California chaparral shrubs) from 1960 to 2099 for each PFT and compare the number of days below the threshold for medium and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). We find that climate change could lead to more days per year (5.2 %–14.8 % increase) with LFMC below 79 % between the historical (1960–1999) and future (2080–2099) periods, implying an increase in wildfire danger for chaparral shrubs in southern California. Under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario during the dry season, we find that the future LFMC reductions mainly result from a warming temperature, which leads to 9.1 %–18.6 % reduction in LFMC. Lower precipitation in the spring leads to a 6.3 %–8.1 % reduction in LFMC. The combined impacts of warming and precipitation change on fire season length are equal to the additive impacts of warming and precipitation change individually. Our results show that the CO2 fertilization will mitigate fire risk by causing a 3.5 %–4.8 % increase in LFMC. Our results suggest that multivariate climate change could cause a significant net reduction in LFMC and thus exacerbate future wildfire danger in chaparral shrub systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale of post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of the impacts of fire on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify the impacts of wildfire on runoff generation. We consider the disturbances in the vegetation and soil as the two main factors contributing to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We consider the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration for two case studies. These case studies demonstrate the general applicability of hydrophobicity formulation to serve as a guideline for exploring the range of hydrologic responses post-fire.

Fire Hydrology↗

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗

A Fire Community Observatory: Interdisciplinary, AI-informed Post-Fire Rapid Response for Improved Water Cycle Science at Watershed Scale

Wildfire is an ecological disturbance that disrupts the hydrological cycle. In the past few years, a record number of multiple-and-compounding fires have occurred across urban-wildland gradients in the Western United States. Changes to watershed hydrological partitioning in response to fires (infiltration, runoff, evapotranspiration) presents unprecedented challenges to “Water-in-the-West” through negative impacts to water supply and its quality, and is a direct threat to downstream communities, groundwater, and drinking water supply infrastructure. While much work is being done to advance Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) use during fires for emergency response (i.e. predict fire movement, direct evacuations), significant potential exists to use AI/ML to address three scientific grand challenges that are rarely addressed in a convergent science context: 1) how to enhance the potential resiliency of a landscape before fire(s), 2) how to cost-effectively and optimally monitor watershed changes after fires, and 3) how to predict future hydrological and biogeochemical trajectories in fire-impacted watershed given climate change. This whitepaper addresses DOE Focal Area 1: Data acquisition and assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wildfire Adaptation in the Russian Arctic: A Systematic Policy Review

A scientific consensus acknowledges that climate change has increased wildfire activity in the Russian Arctic, a trend projected to continue in response to further warming. Regional governments across Russia have started to design and develop adaptation policies and plans (i.e. outputs) to this end. Our comprehensive understanding on the state of wildfire adaptation in policy is limited. In this article we systematically review policies and plans developed to adapt to wildfires in the Russian Arctic. Using systematic approaches, we identify 12 wildfire adaptation outputs adopted between 2008 and 2020. Our findings indicate that wildfire adaptation outputs are aimed at reducing the risk of wildfires and improve wildland fire response, implemented through legislative and regulatory mechanisms, developed at the regional level, adopted in response to national mandates, and mainstreamed into existing forest management policies. Although there is evidence of wildfire adaptation planning occurring in the Russian Arctic, we find that the nature and extent of wildfire adaptation outputs are not sufficient to address the seriousness and severity of climate change, with key shortcomings found in relation to the scientific, human, and management characteristics. We argue that expanding the profile of climate change research in the Russian Arctic and improving the dialogue among researchers, local and Indigenous peoples, and decision-makers are critical for providing useful recommendations for policy makers to accelerate wildfire adaptation in the Russian Arctic.

Wildfire↗

Ignition of global wildfires at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary

The recent discovery of an apparently global soot layer at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary indicates that global wildfires were somehow ignited by the impact of a comet or asteroid. It is shown here that the thermal radiation produced by the ballistic reentry of ejecta condensed from the vapor plume of the impact could have increased the global radiation flux by factors of 50 to 150 times the solar input for periods ranging from one to several hours. This great increase in thermal radiation may have been responsible for the ignition of global wildfires, as well as having deleterious effects on unprotected animal life.

Melosh, H. J.↗

Acute wood smoke exposure is associated with cell-specific hippocampal transcriptomic responses in an accelerated ovarian failure mouse model

Background Wildfire events are increasing in frequency and intensity, and aging individuals demonstrate heightened biological susceptibility to air pollution exposures including increased risk of neurological sequelae. Declining ovarian hormones levels that occur with aging in females along with associated systemic physiological and inflammatory changes may contribute to increased cerebral vulnerability to air pollution, representing a potential but underexplored mechanism. Menopause and the menopausal transition represent a period of profound physiological change that affects cardiovascular, neurological, and immune health. Methods We tested whether peri-menopausal–like hormonal status amplifies hippocampal responses to acute wood smoke (WS) using an ovary-intact, 4-vinylcyclohexene diepoxide (VCD) model of moderate accelerated ovarian failure (AOF) in female C57BL/6 mice. Animals were exposed to HEPA-filtered air (FA) or WS for 4 h/day over 2 consecutive days (∼0.5 mg/m³). Exposure characterization confirmed a complex mixture of combustion products with significant levels of both trace metals and gas release during WS exposure. Results Spatial transcriptomics (10x Visium; n = 4 sections/group) with automated cell-type annotation identified astrocytes, GABAergic and glutamatergic neurons, oligodendrocytes, revealed cell type-specific transcriptional alterations following WS exposure. Distinct transcriptional patterns were observed across all identified neuronal and glial cell populations. Conclusion Together, these findings define a cell-type specific transcriptomic framework describing how WS exposure and ovarian hormone decline interact to influence hippocampal responses and identify potential cellular pathways relevant to hippocampal vulnerability.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Using Satellite‐Derived Fire Arrival Times for Coupled Wildfire‐Air Quality Simulations at Regional Scales of the 2020 California Wildfire Season

Abstract Wildfire frequency has increased in the Western US over recent decades, driven by climate change and a legacy of forest management practices. Consequently, human structures, health, and life are increasingly at risk due to wildfires. Furthermore, wildfire smoke presents a growing hazard for regional and national air quality. In response, many scientific tools have been developed to study and forecast wildfire behavior, or test interventions that may mitigate risk. In this study, we present a retrospective analysis of 1 month of the 2020 Northern California wildfire season, when many wildfires with varying environments and behavior impacted regional air quality. We simulated this period using a coupled numerical weather prediction model with online atmospheric chemistry, and compare two approaches to representing smoke emissions: an online fire spread model driven by remotely sensed fire arrival times and a biomass burning emissions inventory. First, we quantify the differences in smoke emissions and timing of fire activity, and characterize the subsequent impact on estimates of smoke emissions. Next, we compare the simulated smoke to surface observations and remotely sensed smoke; we find that despite differences in the simulated smoke surface concentrations, the two models achieve similar levels of accuracy. We present a detailed comparison between the performance and relative strengths of both approaches, and discuss potential refinements that could further improve future simulations of wildfire smoke. Finally, we characterize the interactions between smoke and meteorology during this event, and discuss the implications that increases in regional smoke may have on future meteorological conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Next-generation geospatial-temporal information technologies for disaster management

Traditional geographic information systems (GIS) have been disrupted by the emergence of Big Data in the form of geo-coded raster, vector, and time-series Internet-of-Things data. This article discusses the application of new scalable technologies that go far beyond relational databases and file-based storage on spinning disk or tape to incorporate both storage and processing data in the same platform. The roles of the Apache Hadoop Distributed File Systems and NoSQL key-value stores such as the Apache Hbase are discussed, along with indexing schemes that optimally support geospatial-temporal use. Here, we highlight how this new approach can rapidly search multiple GIS data layers to obtain insights in the context of early warning, impact evaluation, response, and recovery to earthquake and wildfire disasters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fire and Drought Affect Multiple Aspects of Diversity in a Migratory Bird Stopover Community

Drought and high-severity, stand-replacing wildfires can have substantial impacts on the composition of avian communities, including stop-over communities during migration. An inextricable link exists between drought and wildfire, each operating and impacting across different timescales. Many studies have found nonlinear avian abundance trends in breeding community time series data that include pre- and post-fire observations, describing an initial decrease in abundance followed by rapid increases that can attenuate over time. Here, we use a fall bird-banding dataset to evaluate shifts in a drought-impacted avian community following wildfire from taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic perspectives. We looked at the community as a whole and also categorized birds as residents, migrants, and breeders to assess potential varying responses at the study site. We observed post-fire shifts in functional and phylogenetic diversity that corresponded to changes in vegetation. An influx of migratory insectivores post-fire drove much of the variation between pre- and post-fire avian communities and toward a more related, less phylogenetically dispersed community. A concurrent monsoon season drought was also associated with functional and phylogenetic diversity, highlighting the intertwined pulse press effects on avian communities. Overall, our results suggest that, although bird communities are immediately impacted by fire-driven resource changes, they can rebound over time, it is unclear how long-term drought may continue to shape the composition of these avian communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Roadmap for the future of extreme wildfire events

Background Extreme wildfire events (EWEs) represent a growing threat globally, posing substantial risks to ecosystems, human communities, and infrastructure. Despite increased recognition of their ecological, social, and economic significance, current definitions of EWEs vary widely, reflecting disciplinary biases and regional contexts. This article emerges from an interdisciplinary workshop convened to reassess and refine the definition of EWEs, examine their impacts across ecological and social dimensions, and identify critical knowledge gaps impeding our understanding of these infrequent but important events. Results Our synthesis highlights significant limitations with existing definitions, particularly their reliance on subjective thresholds and their emphasis on extreme fire behavior alone. EWEs encompass a spectrum of complex, multi-dimensional phenomena that extend beyond immediate biophysical characteristics to include cumulative social, economic, and ecological impacts. These impacts often manifest over extended timeframes and include hazardous environmental contamination, severe geomorphic disturbances, ecosystem transformations, and unintended consequences of post-fire management actions. Current wildfire modeling frameworks inadequately capture these compounding factors, particularly the interactions among social systems, ecological conditions, and extreme fire behavior. To overcome these issues, we advocate for an interdisciplinary and context-sensitive approach to defining and studying EWEs. This revised definition emphasizes wildfires exhibiting anomalies in fire behavior, ecological outcomes, or social impacts relative to historically observed baselines, accommodating variability across different geographic regions and ecological settings. Conclusions Adopting an interdisciplinary framework that integrates biophysical and social sciences will enhance the predictive capability of wildfire models and improve resilience planning and response strategies. Filling identified knowledge gaps—such as limited high-quality empirical fire behavior data and insufficient integration of social dynamics into modeling—will better prepare communities and ecosystems to cope with and adapt to EWEs. This inclusive approach underscores the necessity for collaboration across disciplines and sectors, essential to managing extreme wildfires in an era of increasing climatic and ecological uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Future Pathways for Arctic Forest Fires

Wildfires are expected to become more common and more severe in the Arctic states due to climate change. Main cause for the fires is human activity, even in the boreal and Arctic forests. Therefore, activities such forest management and tourism, together with firefighting capacity and readiness, can have a significant impact on future wildfire risks and impacts. To assess the impacts of these factors we have created pathways for future wildfires up to 2050 for the Arctic states. We explore high and low fire activity and risk pathways for all the Arctic states and suggest most our best guess pathways for each state separately. The low activity and fire risk pathway assumes active fire suppression via population participation and official land management, efficient fuel treatments to reduce fire risk, and active firefighting. The high activity and fire risk pathway assumes the opposite due to lack of government and community response, with addition of lacking response to climate-driven changes to wildfire risks. In the Nordic countries, human ignition sources, such as timber extraction, tourism, summer cottages, and expanding wildland-urban intermix due to exurban growth may increase. In addition to these in Canada and Alaska, expansion of agriculture increases the likelihood of open burning of agricultural waste, increasing risk of the fire spreading to wildlands. Drier fuels due to climate change increase the risk of fires, and there is a growing risk of extreme heat conditions, creating favorable conditions for extreme wildfires from any ignition source. Throughout the Arctic lightning is expected to increase, increasing the risk of tundra (specifically grassland) fires, with potential to occur in hard-to-reach locations for firefighting. In short, policy actions and education play a crucial role in future wildfire management and adaptation.

Future↗

Hybridizing Machine Learning and Physically-based Earth System Models to Improve Prediction of Multivariate Extreme Events (AI Exploration of Wildland Fire Prediction)

Focal Areas: This project responds to two focal areas identified in the DOE Call for AI4ESP White Papers: 1) Predictive modeling through the use of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques, and 2) insights gleaned from complex data using explainable AI and big data analytics. Science Challenge: Large wildland fires (hereafter wildfires) appearing as high-impact compound climate extreme events are closely related to hydroclimate and water cycle extremes that modulate surface fuel supply and combustibility. These compound events have multivariate climatic features (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, lightning) and societal drivers (e.g., forest management, land use change, human caused ignitions). Meanwhile, they induce strong feedbacks to the coupled atmosphere, biosphere, and hydrosphere by perturbing regional and global radiation budget as well as ecological, biogeochemical, and water cycles across multiple spatiotemporal scales. The nonlinear interactions between these natural and anthropogenic components of the Earth system are too complex to be completely and adequately represented in today’s Earth system models (ESMs). The inherent stochastic nature of fire activity at all scales further increases the difficulty of its prediction using ESMs that are usually developed from deterministic equations and parameterizations. Besides, concurrence of long-term (decadal to interdecadal) global climate change and fire regime shifts overlapping with short-term (intraseasonal to interannual) variations of regional fire weather and burning activity confound predictability of these compound extreme events. We propose to address the above scientific challenges by using machine learning (ML)-based data-driven modeling techniques to integrate observations and physically-based ESMs’ simulations in a computationally efficient hybrid prediction system. This prediction system is supposed to characterize the wildfire’s sensitivity to climate and exogenous drivers at high resolution (~ 0.25°) on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales providing improved predictability and explainability. We will use the system to help identify: (1) What are the computational elements of a hybrid system needed to predict compound climate extreme events such as global wildfires? (2) What are the key drivers (either natural or anthropogenic) that modulate short-term variations of multivariate fire weather and burning activity over different regions? How can one take advantage of those driver-response relationships to improve the predictability of large wildfires on S2S time scales? (3) What are the underlying physical mechanisms and sources of improved predictability? Which ML techniques are optimal in revealing and adapting these mechanisms?

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using NASA Earth Observations to Identify Wildfire Impacts on Hydrologic Functions and Recovery in the Gila National Forest

Wildfires can dramatically influence both abiotic and biotic components of a landscape, including soil stability and chemistry; vegetation health, density, and composition; and water flow and quality. In addition to the immediate hazards posed by wildfires, subsequent hazards such as flooding and debris flow can impact the area. In New Mexico’s Gila National Forest, wildfire events have occurred with increasing frequency and severity over recent years, notably including the Whitewater Baldy Complex Fire (2012) and Silver Fire (2013), which burned over 290,000 acres and 138,698 acres, respectively, according to the Burned Area Emergency Response Team Executive Summary reports. Following a significant wildfire, land and resource management decisions are made, including when and where to focus vegetation and stream restoration efforts. This research is the result of a collaboration between the NASA DEVELOP National Program and the US Forest Service, which aimed to utilize NASA Earth observations to help inform those critical land management decisions. The project had two main objectives: 1) assess the efficacy of post-fire vegetation restoration efforts and 2) analyze the impact of burn events on the hydrology at the watershed-scale. To accomplish this first goal, data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) were used to study the vegetation health over time of treated and non-treated burn areas. To accomplish the latter, various aspects of stream behavior were examined in relation to burn events, including the runoff coefficient and “flashiness” of streams based on USGS stream gauge data and Integrated Multi-satelllite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) precipitation data. This will allow land managers to better understand the complex ecological relationship between the cascading effects after wildfire and the greater forest ecosystem.

Madeline Allen↗

Assessing Flash Characteristics in Lightning-Initiated Wildfire Events Between 1995 and 2020 Within the Contiguous United States

Twenty-six years of lightning data were paired with over 68,000 lightning-initiated wildfire (LIW) reports to understand lightning flash characteristics responsible for ignition in between 1995 and 2020. Results indicate that 92% of LIW were started by negative cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flashes and 57% were single stroke flashes. Moreover, 62% of LIW reports did not have a positive CG within 10 km of the start location, contrary to the science literature’s suggestion that positive CG flashes are a dominant fire-starting mechanism. Nearly 1/3rd of wildfire events were holdovers, meaning one or more days elapsed between lightning occurrence and fire report. However, fires that were reported less than a day after lightning occurrence statistically burned more acreage. Peak current was not found to be a statistically significant delineator between fire starters and non-fire starters for -CGs but was for positive CGs. Results highlighted the need for reassessing the role of positive CG lightning and subsequently long continuing current in wildfire ignition started by lightning. One potential outcome of this study’s results is the development of real-time tools to identify ignition potential during lightning events to aid in fire mitigation efforts.

Christopher J Schultz↗

ACERO, Wildfire Damage and Impact of Aerial Support

This presentation offers an overview of the Advanced Capabilities for Emergency Response Operations (ACERO) project, highlighting key accomplishments in FY24 and outlining the plan for the first Technical Challenge, which is scheduled for completion by FY30.

Wildfire airspace management↗