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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intensification of future subsurface marine heatwaves in an eddy-resolving model

A shift in depth range enables marine organisms to adapt to marine heatwaves (MHWs). Subsurface MHWs could limit this pathway, yet their response to climate warming remains unclear. Here, using an eddy-resolving Earth system model forced under a high emission scenario, we project a robust global increase in subsurface MHWs driven by rising subsurface mean temperatures and enhanced temperature variability. Historically, maximum MHW intensity occurs around 100m depth, which shifts to the faster-warming surface under greenhouse warming. However, removing the long-term warming trend yields an increase in subsurface MHW intensity and annual days greater than that at the surface, especially in large marine ecosystem regions, primarily due to increased variability. Additionally, days of the surface and subsurface concurrent event increase ten times more than those of individual events. Our study highlights a heightened threat to marine organisms under global warming, as the increased subsurface heatwaves reduce their refuge options.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Interplay Between Climate and Urban Expansion on Building Energy Demand in Morocco

Understanding building energy demand is critical for addressing climate uncertainty challenges and ensuring sustainable urban growth. This study develops a building energy demand (BED) model to explore how climate variation and urban expansion affect residential and commercial space heating and cooling demands in Morocco for three scenarios, namely, 2005, 2018, and 2018 + 1.5 °C. The results show that coastal cities have lower heating and cooling needs due to the oceanic influence, while interior cities require significantly higher heating demand per-unit-floorspace. Between 2005 and 2018, urban growth increased total heating and cooling demand by 218.8 GWh, particularly in northern and coastal regions, despite per-unit-floorspace reductions in milder climates and improved building efficiency in 2018. Residential heating remains the dominant energy use, though commercial demand is significant in urban centers. Under the 2018 + 1.5 °C hypothetical scenario, heating demand across Morocco declines by 335.8 GWh compared to 2018, with urban areas amplifying this trend. Meanwhile, cooling demand increases slightly by 44.4 GWh, with major cities experiencing relative increases of up to 50%. These findings highlight a trade-off where reduced winter heating needs are partly offset by increased summer cooling demands in densely urbanized areas. In conclusion, the study identifies key urban hotspots for targeted interventions, emphasizing the need for energy-efficient building designs, climate-adaptive urban planning, and resilient energy management strategies to sustainably address shifting seasonal energy patterns.

Morocco↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Resilience of Habitable Climates Around Circumbinary Stars

Here we use a 3‐D climate system model to study the habitability of Earth‐like planets orbiting in circumbinary systems. In the most extreme cases, Earth‐like planets in circumbinary systems could experience variations in the incident stellar flux of up to ~50% on ~100‐day timescales. However, we find that Earth‐like planets, having abundant surface liquid water, are generally effective at buffering against these time‐dependent changes in the stellar irradiation due to the high thermal inertia of oceans compared with the relatively short periods of circumbinary‐driven variations in the received stellar flux. Ocean surface temperatures exhibit little to no variation in time; however, land surfaces can experience modest changes in temperature, thus exhibiting an additional mode of climate variability driven by the circumbinary variations. Still, meaningful oscillations in surface temperatures are only found for circumbinary system architectures featuring the largest physically possible amplitudes in the stellar flux variation. In the most extreme cases, an Earth‐like planet could experience circumbinary‐driven variations in the global mean land surface temperature of up to ~5 K, and variations of local daytime maximum temperatures of up to ~12 K on seasonal timescales, while the global mean ocean temperatures vary by less than ~2 K. Such seasonal temperature swings over land areas could potentially pose adaptability challenges for extant life. Still, habitable planets in circumbinary systems appear to be remarkably resilient against circumbinary‐driven climate variations and can avoid any true climate catastrophes.

Eric T Wolf↗
NASA NTRS1987

A method of calculating the total flow from a given sea surface topography

Using a simple dynamical model of a wind-driven ocean circulation of the Stommel type, and an analytical basis developed to objectively analyze the sea surface height residuals from an altimeter and, in the process, to determine the total flow instead of just the near surface geostrophic component associated with the given sea surface topography. The method is based on first deriving the solution to the forced problem for a given wind stress required to develop a hypothetical true or perfect data field and to establishing the basis for the objective analysis. The stream function and the surface height field for the forced problem are developed in terms of certain characteristic functions with the same expansion coefficients for both fields. These characteristic functions are simply the solutions for a homogeneous elliptic equation for the stream function and the solutions of an inhomogeneous balance equation for the height field. For the objective analysis, using a sample of randomly selected height values from the true data field, the height field characteristic functions are used to fit the given topography in a least squares sense. The resulting expansion coefficients then permit the synthesis of the total flow field via the stream function characteristic modes and the solution is perfectly well behaved even along the equator. The method of solution is easily adaptable to realistic ocean basis by straight forward numerical methods. The analytical basis of the theory and the results for an ideal rectangular basin on a beta plane are described.

Rao, Desiraju B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Eastward-shifting boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation amplifies North America heatwave and wildfire risks in warming climate

Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a key component of tropical climate variability, characterized by eastward and northeastward propagation of organized convection across the Indo-Pacific region. BSISO influences weather and climate extremes through atmospheric teleconnections, but its future changes and related extremes remain unclear. Here, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that under a high-emission scenario, BSISO convection will shift eastward by ~3° (~300 km) in 2065–2099, driven by moisture profile changes associated with sea surface temperature warming over central-to-eastern Pacific. This eastward-shifted BSISO convection, along with a northward expansion of the westerly jet, strengthens the BSISO teleconnections that extend into broader areas of North America. These changes will increase the BSISO-related heatwave risks by 23% and wildfire risks by 3.5 times over northern North America compared to present-day conditions. The findings underscore the amplification of BSISO’s influence on extreme risks of extreme weather, emphasizing the need for improved adaptation and mitigation strategies for future climates.

BSISO teleconnection↗
NASA NTRS2020

Enhancing New York City's resilience to sea level rise and increased coastal flooding

Accelerating Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheet ice mass losses and potential West Antarctic Ice Sheet instability may lead to higher than previously anticipated future sea levels. The New York City Panel on Climate Change Antarctic Rapid Ice Melt (ARIM) upper-end, low probability sea level rise (SLR) scenario, which incorporates recent ice loss trends, improved ice sheet-ocean-atmosphere modeling, and potential ice sheet destabilization, projects SLR of up to 2.1 m by the 2080s and up to 2.9 m by 2100, at high greenhouse gas emissions (NPCC, 2019). These results exceed previous high-end SLR projections (90th percentile) of 1.5 m by the 2080s and 1.9 m by 2100, relative to 2000–2004 (NPCC, 2015). By 2100, the 1% annual chance (100-year) floodplain could cover 1/3 of the city's total area under ARIM; around 1/5 of the area could be flooded during monthly high tides. Some low-lying locations could become permanently inundated by late century. Will New York City coastal resiliency initiatives, guided, in part by NPCC findings, suffice for very high sea levels? Additional research is needed to determine technological, environmental, or economic limitations to coastal protection and to decide when and where strategic relocation may become necessary.

Sea level rise↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS1994

Man-Made Closed Ecological Systems as Model of Natural Ecosystems and as Means to Provide High Quality of Human Life in Adverse Environment

For its more than thirty year long history, the experimental creation of closed ecological systems has from its very sources been distinctly and strongly motivated by the development of human life-support systems for space. As the trend developed its fundamental significance and broad opportunities of terrestrial applications of the technologies under development were coming to the foreground. Nowadays, it can be argued that development of closed ecosystems is experimental foundation of a new branch of ecology biospherics, the goal of which is to comprehend the regularities of existence of the biosphere as a unique in the Universe (in that part of it that we know, at least) closed ecosystem. Closed technologies can be implemented in life-support systems under adverse conditions of life on the Earth - in Arctic and Antarctic latitudes, deserts, high mountains or deep in the ocean, as well as under the conditions of polluted water and air. In space where the environment is hostile for life all around the cell of life should be sealed and the life-support system as close to the ideally closed cyclic turnover of the matter as possible. Under terrestrial conditions designers should strive for maximum closure of the limiting factor: water - in deserts, oxygen - in high mountains, energy - in polar latitudes, etc. Essential closure of a life-support systems withstands also pollution of the environment by the wastes of human vital activity. This is of particular importance for the quarantine of visited planets, and on the Earth under the conditions of deficient heat in high latitudes and water in and areas. The report describes experimental ecosystem 'BIOS' and exohabitats being designed on its basis, which are adapted to various conditions, described capacities of the Center for Closed Ecosystems in Drasnoyarsk for international collaboration in research and education in this field.

Gitelson, I. I.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Learning instrument invariant characteristics for generating high-resolution global coral reef maps

Coral reefs are one of the most biologically complex and diverse ecosystems within the shallow marine environment. Unfortunately, these underwater ecosystems are threatened by a number of anthropogenic challenges, including ocean acidification and warming, overfishing, and the continued increase of marine debris in oceans. This requires a comprehensive assessment of the world's coastal environments, including a quantitative analysis on the health and extent of coral reefs and other associated marine species, as a vital Earth Science measurement. However, limitations in observational and technological capabilities inhibit global sustained imaging of the marine environment. Harmonizing multimodal data sets acquired using different remote sensing instruments presents additional challenges, thereby limiting the availability of good quality labeled data for analysis. In this work, we develop a deep learning model for extracting domain invariant features from multimodal remote sensing imagery and creating high-resolution global maps of coral reefs by combining various sources of imagery and limited hand-labeled data available for certain regions. This framework allows us to generate, for the first time, coral reef segmentation maps at 2-meter resolution, which is a significant improvement over the kilometer-scale state-of-the-art maps. Additionally, this framework doubles accuracy and IoU metrics over baselines that do not account for domain invariance.

Domain Adaptation↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Comparative Study of Physics‐Informed and Data‐Driven Neural Networks for Compound Flood Simulation at River‐Ocean Interfaces: A Case Study of Hurricane Irene

Simulating compound flooding (CF) at the river-ocean interface within large-scale Earth System Models (ESMs) presents significant challenges due to complex interactions between river discharge, storm surge, and tides. This study assesses the comparative advantages of physics-informed and data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches for enhancing local ESM performance. We systematically compare data-driven neural network models (i.e., CNNs, U-Net, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit), and physics-informed neural network (PINN) models, including vanilla PINN and a finite-difference-based PINN (FD-PINN). Specifically, FD-PINN is introduced to enhance computational efficiency, accelerating vanilla PINNs by ∼6.5 times while improving accuracy. To enhance data-driven model training, a new data-generation approach is developed to sample historical fluvial and coastal flood events, which ensures a robust data set for extreme event prediction. The models are evaluated using a realistic one-dimensional river domain extracted from an ESM's river mesh and the Hurricane Irene event as an independent test case. Results show that FD-PINN achieves accurate predictions with significantly reduced computational costs relative to vanilla PINNs. Among data-driven models, the best overall performance is achieved by a CNN-LSTM hybrid, which balances accuracy and efficiency. While a fully connected CNN (CNN-FC) provides the best accuracy, it incurs high computational cost. Architectures lacking strong temporal modeling tend to underperform on unseen events. These findings highlight the importance of sequence-aware designs for robust generalization. This study reveals the trade-offs between physics-informed and data-driven models and proposes an adaptive hybrid framework for integrating ML into ESMs to enhance local flood simulations.

Earth Systems Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2018

MODIS Collection 6 MAIAC Algorithm

This paper describes the latest version of the algorithm MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) used for processing the MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Collection6 data record. Since initial publication in 2011-2012, MAIAC has changed considerably to adapt to global processing and improve cloud/snow detection, aerosol retrievals and atmospheric correction of MODIS data. The main changes include (1) transition from a 25 to 1 km scale for retrieval of the spectral regression coefficient (SRC) which helped to remove occasional blockiness at 25 km scale in the aerosol optical depth (AOD) and in the surface reflectance, (2) continuous improvements of cloud detection, (3) introduction of smoke and dust tests to discriminate absorbing fine- and coarse mode aerosols, (4) adding over-water processing, (5) general optimization of the LUT (LookUp-Table)-based radiative transfer for the global processing, and others. MAIAC provides an interdisciplinary suite of atmospheric and land products, including cloud mask (CM), column water vapor (CWV), AOD at 0.47 and 0.55 m, aerosol type (background, smoke or dust) and fine-mode fraction over water; spectral bidirectional reflectance factors (BRF), parameters of Ross-thick Lisparse (RTLS) bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) model and instantaneous albedo. For snow-covered surfaces, we provide subpixel snow fraction and snow grain size. All products come in standard HDF4 (software library) format at 1 km resolution, except for BRF, which is also provided at 500 m resolution on a sinusoidal grid adopted by the MODIS Land team. All products are provided on per-observation basis in daily files except for the BRDF/Albedo product, which is reported every 8 days. Because MAIAC uses a time series approach, BRDF/Albedo is naturally gap-filled over land where missing values are filled-in with results from the previous retrieval. While the BRDF model is reported for MODIS Land bands 1-7 and ocean band 8, BRF is reported for both land and ocean bands 1-12. This paper focuses on MAIAC cloud detection, aerosol retrievals and atmospheric correction and describes MCD19 data products and quality assurance (QA) flags.

MAIAC Algorithm↗
DOE OSTI2026

Computational capacity in hydrodynamic real-time hybrid simulation applied to simulate the dynamic response of floating offshore wind turbines

Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) mitigates similitude distortions in model-scale tests of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs) by coupling physical experiments with numerical models in real time. The coupling requires faster-than-real-time numerical computations to satisfy temporal similitude with the physical experiment, presenting a bottleneck for using more complex numerical models in RTHS. This paper presents a hydrodynamic-RTHS (hydro-RTHS) framework for FOWTs that simulates the hydrodynamics physically and the aerodynamics numerically with sensor feedback from the physical testing. The framework adapts the three-loop hardware architecture to leverage greater computational resources and mitigate strict temporal requirements, enabling more computationally demanding numerical analyses in hydro-RTHS. The three-loop hardware architecture integrates multiple machines, each dedicated to either numerical analysis or RTHS controls, with a rate-transition algorithm to synchronize the tasks executed across the different machine processors. Virtual and physical tests verified and validated the hydro-RTHS framework, respectively. The ”virtual” tests, which approximates the physical domain numerically, verified the RTHS framework with respect to a numerical full-scale complete FOWT model simulated in the open-source software, OpenFAST. The virtual tests were able to maintain comparable control signals while enabling greater computational resources for the numerical calculations. Real-world physical tests demonstrated that the hydro-RTHS framework computes aerodynamic forces similar to the complete OpenFAST model, validating the hydro-RTHS framework using the three-loop hardware architecture. Findings show that the hydro-RTHS framework with the three-loop hardware architecture is computationally efficient, with reserve capacity to simulate more complex problems due to the customized software, hardware, and rate-transition algorithm.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

NASA Remote Sensing Applications for Archaeology and Cultural Resources Management

NASA's Earth Science Mission Directorate recently completed the deployment of the Earth Observation System (EOS) which is a coordinated series of polar-orbiting and low inclination satellites for long-term global observations of the land surface, biosphere, solid Earth, atmosphere, and oceans. One of the many applications derived from EOS is the advancement of archaeological research and applications. Using satellites, manned and unmanned airborne platform, NASA scientists and their partners have conducted archaeological research using both active and passive sensors. The NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) located in south Mississippi, near New Orleans, has been a leader in space archaeology since the mid-1970s. Remote sensing is useful in a wide range of archaeological research applications from landscape classification and predictive modeling to site discovery and mapping. Remote sensing technology and image analysis are currently undergoing a profound shift in emphasis from broad classification to detection, identification and condition of specific materials, both organic and inorganic. In the last few years, remote sensing platforms have grown increasingly capable and sophisticated. Sensors currently in use, including commercial instruments, offer significantly improved spatial and spectral resolutions. Paired with new techniques of image analysis, this technology provides for the direct detection of archaeological sites. As in all archaeological research, the application of remote sensing to archaeology requires a priori development of specific research designs and objectives. Initially targeted at broad archaeological issues, NASA space archaeology has progressed toward developing practical applications for cultural resources management (CRM). These efforts culminated with the Biloxi Workshop held by NASA and the University of Mississippi in 2002. The workshop and resulting publication specifically address the requirements of cultural resource managers through the use of remote sensing. In 2007, NASA awarded six competitively chosen projects in Space Archaeology through an open solicitation whose purpose, among several, was to addresses the potential benefits to modern society that can be derived through a better understanding of how past cultures succeeded or failed to adapt to local, regional, and global change. A further objective of NASA's space archaeology is the protection and preservation of cultural heritage sites while planning for the sustainable development of cultural resources. NASA s archaeological approach through remote sensing builds on traditional methods of aerial archaeology (i.e. crop marks) and utilizes advanced technologies for collecting and analyzing archaeological data from digital imagery. NASA s archaeological research and application projects using remote sensing have been conducted throughout the world. In North America, NASA has imaged prehistoric mound sites in Mississippi; prehistoric shell middens in Louisiana, Puebloan sites in New Mexico and more recently the sites associated with the Lewis and Clark Corps of Discovery Expedition (1804-1806). In Central America, NASA archaeologists have researched Mayan sites throughout the region, including the Yucatan and Costa Rica, as well as Olmec localities in Veracruz. Other data has been collected over Angkor, Cambodia, Giza in Egypt, the lost city of Ubar on the Arabian Peninsula.

Giardino, Marco J.↗
NASA NTRS2015

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2015 Report: Climate Observations and Projections - Chapter 1

During 2013 and 2014, numerous international (IPCC, 2013) and national (Melillo et al., 2014; Gordon, 2014) reports have concluded that human activities are changing the climate, leading to increased vulnerability and risk. Since the industrial revolution, fossil fuel burning, industrial activity, and land use changes have led to a 40% increase in heat-trapping carbon dioxide (CO2), and an approximately 150% increase in methane (CH4), another powerful greenhouse gas (GHG), has been observed. Global temperatures have increased by close to 1 C since 1880 as the upper oceans have warmed and polar ice has retreated. These and other climate changes are projected to accelerate as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise. In the coming decades, climate change is extremely likely to bring warmer temperatures in the New York metropolitan region (see Box. 1.1 and Fig.1.1 for key definitions and terms). Heat waves are very likely to increase; total annual precipitation will likely increase and brief, intense rainstorms are very likely to increase. Because of incomplete knowledge about exactly how much climate change will occur, choosing among policies for reducing future damages requires prudent risk management (Yohe and Leichenko, 2010; Kunreuther et al., 2013). Given differing risk tolerances among stakeholders, a risk management approach allows for a range of possible climate change outcomes to be examined with associated uncertainties surrounding their likelihoods. The New York City Panel on Climate Change 2 (NPCC2) projections can be used to inform planning across multiple governmental scales (e.g., city, county, state) in the New York metropolitan region. Such coordinated efforts can serve as test cases for successful local, state, and federal coordination for integrated climate adaptation initiatives. This chapter describes the global climate system, and presents observed temperature and precipitation trends and projections for the region. Chapter 2 (NPCC, 2015) focuses on sea level rise and possible changes in coastal storms. Chapter 3 and Chapter 4 (NPCC, 2015) describe efforts to better understand the region's vulnerability to coastal flooding during coastal storms. The treatment of likelihood related to the NPCC projections is similar to that developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth and Fifth Assessment Reports (IPCC, 2007; 2013), with six likelihood categories (Box 1.1 and Fig. 1.1). The assignment of climate hazards to these categories is based on observed data, global climate model simulations, published literature, and expert judgment.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Novel High-Performance Mission-Enabling Multi-Purpose Radioisotope Heat Source

Recent studies indicate science mission concepts targeting access to the sub-surface oceans of icy moons require ice-penetrating cryobots powered by advanced Radioisotope Power Systems (RPS). These systems would deliver waste heat for ice-melting in the range of 10 kW. Minimizing the transit time through the kilometers-thick ice shells to just a few years requires these RPS to utilize heat sources having a higher thermal energy volumetric density than the existing flight-qualified General-Purpose Heat Source (GPHS). A Compact Heat Source (CPHS)has been conceptualized in which the graphite impact shells(GIS) of the existing GPHS are rearranged in a hexagonal aeroshell containing seven GIS per module, as opposed to the standard two per module; offering a thermal energy density of 0.57 W/cm3versus 0.29 W/cm3 offered by the GPHS simply from the repackaging of Technology Readiness Level (TRL)9 subassemblies. Preliminary thermal modeling of the CPHS integrated into a notional radioisotope thermoelectric generator(RTG) structure further suggests that centerline temperatures are well within allowable limits during nominal operation. Given the need for the CPHS for a subset of missions, it is worth exploring the applicability of the CPHS for more general RTG purposes. We discuss herein how the CPHS may be implemented with either heritage or in-development thermoelectric converter technologies into a Next-Generation RTG concept. Due to a higher energy density, the legacy heat rejection fin arrangement must be modified to permit a sufficiently low cold-side temperature. Preliminary finite element analysis suggests fin-root temperatures can be kept as low as 520 K while allowing the generator to fit within the usable dimensions of currently available United States Department of Energy shipping containers. Such temperatures would certainly be compatible with the use of high temperature thermoelectric converter technologies.. A prime candidate is the heritage silicon-germanium (SiGe) unicouple, whose design could be adapted by approximately halving the leg-length, but without changes in hot and cold junction interfaces, which are features critical to the proven performance and reliability of these devices. The estimated Beginning of Life power for a SiGe-based CPHS-RTG using 12 CPHS for a thermal inventory of 10.5 kW is greater than 600 W under deep space operating conditions. Using higher performance segmented couples currently in development that are based on skutterudite,La3−xTe4and 14-1-11 Zintl thermoelectric materials in lieu of the SiGe unicouples would increase the power level to more than1 kW. The high specific power (We/kg) attribute of CPHS-RTGs found in this study could potentially enable Radioisotope Electric Propulsion (REP) mission concepts. Past NASA REP mission concept studies identified specific power needs in excess of 6to 8 We/kg. Based on a GPHS-RTG-like system configuration, we show that at fin root temperatures between 530 K and 570K (deep space environment), specific powers exceeding 10 We/kg are achievable using high performance segmented thermoelectric converters. The compact sizing and power density of the CPHS-RTG would constitute a significant step upgrade in specific power when compared to heritage GPHS-RTG (approximately5.1 We/kg) and off-the-shelf Multi-Mission RTG (approximately 2.6 We/kg).

Nesmith, Bill J.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Multi-Sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator and Remote Sensing from Model Parameters : Aerosols - Part 2

The Multi-sensor Cloud Retrieval Simulator (MCRS) produces a simulated radiance product from any high-resolution general circulation model with interactive aerosol as if a specific sensor such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were viewing a combination of the atmospheric column and land ocean surface at a specific location. Previously the MCRS code only included contributions from atmosphere and clouds in its radiance calculations and did not incorporate properties of aerosols. In this paper we added a new aerosol properties module to the MCRS code that allows users to insert a mixture of up to 15 different aerosol species in any of 36 vertical layers. This new MCRS code is now known as MCARS (Multi-sensor Cloud and Aerosol Retrieval Simulator). Inclusion of an aerosol module into MCARS not only allows for extensive, tightly controlled testing of various aspects of satellite operational cloud and aerosol properties retrieval algorithms, but also provides a platform for comparing cloud and aerosol models against satellite measurements. This kind of two-way platform can improve the efficacy of model parameterizations of measured satellite radiances, allowing the assessment of model skill consistently with the retrieval algorithm. The MCARS code provides dynamic controls for appearance of cloud and aerosol layers. Thereby detailed quantitative studies of the impacts of various atmospheric components can be controlled. In this paper we illustrate the operation of MCARS by deriving simulated radiances from various data field output by the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model. The model aerosol fields are prepared for translation to simulated radiance using the same model sub grid variability parameterizations as are used for cloud and atmospheric properties profiles, namely the ICA technique. After MCARS computes modeled sensor radiances equivalent to their observed counterparts, these radiances are presented as input to operational remote-sensing algorithms. Specifically, the MCARS-computed radiances are input into the processing chain used to produce the MODIS Data Collection 6 aerosol product (MOYD04). TheMOYD04 product is of course normally produced from MOYD021KM MODIS Level-1B radiance product directly acquired by the MODIS instrument. MCARS matches the format and metadata of a MOYD021KM product. The resulting MCARS output can be directly provided to MODAPS (MODIS Adaptive Processing System) as input to various operational atmospheric retrieval algorithms. Thus the operational algorithms can be tested directly without needing to make any software changes to accommodate an alternative input source. We show direct application of this synthetic product in analysis of the performance of the MOD04 operational algorithm. We use biomass-burning case studies over Amazonia employed in a recent Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE)-sponsored study of aerosol impacts on numerical weather prediction (Freitas et al., 2015). We demonstrate that a known low bias in retrieved MODIS aerosol optical depth appears to be due to a disconnect between actual column relative humidity and the value assumed by the MODIS aerosol product.

aerosol retrieval↗