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Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs): status for CMIP6

The Observations for Model Intercomparison Project (Obs4MIPs) was initiated in 2010 to facilitate the use of observations in climate model evaluation and research, with a particular target being the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), a major initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). To this end, Obs4MIPs (1) targets observed variables that can be compared to CMIP model variables; (2) utilizes dataset formatting specifications and metadata requirements closely aligned with CMIP model output; (3) provides brief technical documentation for each dataset, designed for nonexperts and tailored towards relevance for model evaluation, including information on uncertainty, dataset merits, and limitations; and (4) disseminates the data through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) platforms, making the observations searchable and accessible via the same portals as the model output. Taken together, these characteristics of the organization and structure of obs4MIPs should entice a more diverse community of researchers to engage in the comparison of model output with observations and to contribute to a more comprehensive evaluation of the climate models. At present, the number of obs4MIPs datasets has grown to about 80; many are undergoing updates, with another 20 or so in preparation, and more than 100 are proposed and under consideration. A partial list of current global satellite-based datasets includes humidity and temperature profiles; a wide range of cloud and aerosol observations; ocean surface wind, temperature, height, and sea ice fraction; surface and top-of-atmosphere longwave and shortwave radiation; and ozone (O 3 ), methane (CH 4 ), and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) products. A partial list of proposed products expected to be useful in analyzing CMIP6 results includes the following: alternative products for the above quantities, additional products for ocean surface flux and chlorophyll products, a number of vegetation products (e.g., FAPAR, LAI, burned area fraction), ice sheet mass and height, carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ). While most existing obs4MIPs datasets consist of monthly-mean gridded data over the global domain, products with higher time resolution (e.g., daily) and/or regional products are now receiving more attention. Along with an increasing number of datasets, obs4MIPs has implemented a number of capability upgrades including (1) an updated obs4MIPs data specifications document that provides additional search facets and generally improves congruence with CMIP6 specifications for model datasets, (2) a set of six easily understood indicators that help guide users as to a dataset's maturity and suitability for application, and (3) an option to supply supplemental information about a dataset beyond what can be found in the standard metadata. With the maturation of the obs4MIPs framework, the dataset inclusion process, and the dataset formatting guidelines and resources, the scope of the observations being considered is expected to grow to include gridded in situ datasets as well as datasets with a regional focus, and the ultimate intent is to judiciously expand this scope to any observation dataset that has applicability for evaluation of the types of Earth system models used in CMIP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long‐Term Impacts of Global Solid Biofuel Emissions on Ambient Air Quality and Human Health for 2000–2019

Globally, solid biofuels (SB) have been widely used for household cooking and energy production for decades due to electricity shortages and socio-economic barriers to adopting renewable energy alternatives. This has detrimental effects on air quality, human health, and climate through trace gas and aerosol emissions. Despite numerous studies, the long-term consequences of SB emissions remain poorly understood. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model and the Community Emissions Data System emission inventory to investigate the SB emission impacts on air quality and human health for 2000–2019. Global SB emission increased the ambient PM 2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameters ≤2.5 μm) and ozone (O 3 ) concentrations up to 23.61 μg/m 3 and 13.69 ppbv, with significant effects found in India, China, and the Rest of Asia (ROA). Our study estimates total annual premature deaths (APDs) associated with global SB-attributable PM 2.5 and O 3 exposure as 1.11 million [95% confidence interval (95% CI): 1.00–1.22 million] in 2000 up to 1.43 million (95% CI: 1.30–1.56 million) in 2019. China's SB emissions and associated APDs have reduced substantially, whereas India and ROA had a major leap in both estimates in 2019 compared to 2000. China's progress in cutting residential SB emissions accounts for its improvements. Our study urges the reduction of SB usage and emissions to potentially improve overall air quality and human health conditions, especially in highly populated, low- and middle-income countries, where the poor air quality and associated health burden attributable to SB emissions are estimated to be higher.

O 3↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Hygroscopicity Value-Added Product Report

The purpose of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Cloud Condensation Nuclei Hygroscopicity Parameter (AOSCCNSMPSKAPPA and AOSCCNUHSASKAPPA) Value-Added Product (VAP) is to calculate the hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, to quantify the ability of aerosols to activate into cloud water droplets. The hygroscopicity parameter is often used to model the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of atmospheric aerosols of different sizes and compositions, providing additional insight on the influence of aerosols on climate. The AOSCCNUHSASKAPPA VAP was recently developed to provides kappa data for ARM sites where AOSCCNSMPSKAPPA was missing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Corrected Moments in Antenna Coordinates (CMAC) Technical Report

Various corrections are needed in order to extract the best value of the measurements from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s scanning precipitation radars. The Corrected Moments in Antenna Coordinates (CMAC) Value-Added Product provides an application chain for providing radar moments that are corrected for artifacts such as aliasing, attenuation, multi-trip echoes, and beam blockage. This technical report provides details on the entire process of correcting the ARM scanning precipitation radar data using CMAC. CMAC has been used at multiple ARM sites and ARM Mobile Facility deployments including the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER), Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI), and the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Laboratory (SAIL).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Hygroscopicity Value-Added Product Report

The purpose of the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s Cloud Condensation Nuclei Hygroscopicity Parameter (AOSCCNSMPSKAPPA and AOSCCNUHSASKAPPA) Value-Added Product (VAP) is to calculate the hygroscopicity parameter, kappa, to quantify the ability of aerosols to activate into cloud water droplets. The hygroscopicity parameter is often used to model the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity of atmospheric aerosols of different sizes and compositions, providing additional insight on the influence of aerosols on climate. The AOSCCNUHSASKAPPA VAP was recently developed to provides kappa data for ARM sites where AOSCCNSMPSKAPPA was missing. Laboratory experiments show that the kappa values for highly hygroscopic aerosols vary from 0.5 to 1.4 (Petters and Kreidenweis 2007). For organic compounds they are observed to vary between 0.01 and 0.5. For non-hygroscopic aerosols, such as soot, kappa values are very close to zero. Ambient aerosols are complex mixtures of organic and inorganic compounds and previous observations indicate that kappa values for these aerosols typically vary from 0.05 to 0.9 (Petters and Kreidenweis 2007).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fossil fuel CO 2 emissions over metropolitan areas from space: A multi-model analysis of OCO-2 data over Lahore, Pakistan

Urban areas, where gathering more than 55% of the global population, alone contributed to more than 70% of anthropogenic fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO 2ff ) emissions. Accurate quantification of CO 2ff emissions from urban areas is of great importance to the formulation of global warming mitigation policies to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Satellite-based inversion techniques are unique among “top-down” approaches, potentially allowing us to track CO 2ff emission changes over cities globally. However, its accuracy is still limited by incomplete background information, cloud blockages, aerosol contaminations, and uncertainties in models and emission inventories used as prior. To evaluate the current potential of space-based quantification techniques, we present the first attempt to monitor long-term changes in CO 2ff emissions based on the OCO-2 satellite measurements of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO 2 (X CO2 ) over a fast-growing Asian metropolitan area: Lahore, Pakistan. We first examined the OCO-2 data availability at global scale. About 17% of OCO-2 soundings are marked as high-quality soundings by quality flags over the global 70 most populated cities over the period 2014-2019. Cloud blockage and aerosol contamination are the two main causes of data loss. As an attempt to recover additional soundings, we evaluated the effectiveness of OCO-2 quality flags at the city level by comparing three flux quantification methods (WRF-Chem, X-STILT, and flux cross-sectional integration method), all based on the Open-Data Inventory for Anthropogenic Carbon dioxide (ODIAC) product. The satellite/bottom-up emissions (OCO-2/ODIAC) ratios of the high-quality tracks better converged across the three methods compared to the all-data tracks with reduced uncertainties in emissions. Thus, OCO-2 quality flags are useful filters of low-quality OCO-2 retrievals at local scales, although originally designed for global-scale studies. All three methods consistently suggested that the ratio medians are greater than 1, which implies that the ODIAC slightly underestimated the CO2ff emissions over Lahore. Additionally, our estimation of the a posteriori CO2ff emission trend was about 734 kt C/year (i.e., an annual 6.7% increase). 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the Mann-Kendall upward trend test showed that less than 10% prior uncertainty for 8 tracks (or less than 20% prior uncertainty for 25 tracks) is required to achieve a greater-than-50% trend significant possibility at a 95% confidence level. It implies that the trend is driven by the prior and not due to the assimilation of OCO-2 retrievals. The key to improving the role of satellite data in CO 2 emission trend detection lies in collecting more frequent high-quality tracks near metropolitan areas to achieve significant constraints from X CO2 retrievals.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Enhanced Boundary Layer Height Detection Using Ceilometer, Surface Meteorology, and Radiation Products With a Random Forest Ensemble Method

This study develops and evaluates a Random Forest (RF) model for estimating planetary boundary layer height (PBLH) using 9 years of data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM SGP) user facility, with potential application in the NOAA Surface Radiation (SURFRAD) Network. The model integrates ceilometer, surface meteorology, and radiation measurements, and is trained using thermodynamic PBLH estimates derived from radiosondes. This approach aims to bridge gaps between aerosol-based and thermodynamic-based PBLH estimates. The RF model outperformed traditional methods during daytime and better captured transition periods, demonstrating improved accuracy and robustness. At ARM SGP, it showed a substantial reduction in both bias and RMSE, with a bias near zero (−4.9 m) compared with traditional Haar Wavelet (HW) (70.9 m) and Vaisala BL-View software (124.1 m), and an RMSE of 303.2 m, lower than both BL-View (566.9 m) and HW (404.6 m). During daytime hours, RF consistently outperformed both alternatives, maintaining lower bias and RMSE across all periods. At a second evaluation site, RF achieved the lowest overall RMSE (323.7 m), similar to HW (326.4 m) and significantly better than BL-View (738.3 m). However, all models showed reduced accuracy under stable nighttime conditions, limiting the reliability of PBLH estimates. Key predictors for the model included the lifting condensation level height (LCLH), aerosol gradients, and month for seasonal variability. The study underscores the potential of integrating machine learning with multiple data sets such as surface energy and thermodynamic data to advance PBLH estimation.

boundary layer height↗

Translator Plan: A Coordinated Vision for Fiscal Years 2023-2025

Translators serve a unique role in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, offering scientific input through various leadership and service roles. The Translators direct the creation of value-added products (VAPs) and analysis tools that make ARM measurements more accessible to the scientific community. Translators also serve as liaisons between users and the ARM infrastructure, collecting information about priorities and communicating ARM data and services. A key group focus is supporting the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program scientists and ASR’s efforts towards a process-level understanding of cloud-aerosol interactions, and in reducing uncertainty in global climate model projections. The ARM Translator Group (Table 1) consists of the five Translators, a representative of software development, and one from the Data Quality Office (DQO). Additionally, the ARM Engineering and Process Manager participates in this group and provides input and direction from ARM and its programmatic priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July, August, and September, 2022

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A). This dataset includes the data in June, July, August, and September; the last year of the data is 2022.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for the whole year, from 2014 to 2015

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July, August, from 2000 to 2024

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for March, April and May, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July and August, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for December, January and February, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

{node_som_ml,synop_wea_reg}↗

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for September, October and November, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

Planetary Boundary-Layer Height (PBLHT) Value-Added Product: Remote-Sensing Retrievals

The planetary boundary layer (PBL) is fundamental to numerous atmospheric processes, including aerosol mixing and transport, cloud evolution, and precipitation formation. A critical parameter in these studies is the PBL height (PBLHT). This vertical depth is essential for characterizing PBL structures in numerical simulations and serves as a primary metric for estimating flux exchanges between the Earth’s surface and the atmosphere. Radiosonde (SONDE) observations provide high-vertical-resolution measurements of temperature and moisture profiles and are widely used to estimate PBLHT (Liu and Liang 2010, Seidel et al. 2010). The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s PBLHT value-added product (VAP) for radiosonde measurements, known as PBLHTSONDE, applies three commonly used methods—the Heffter (1980) method, the Liu and Liang (2010) method, and the bulk Richardson number approach (Seibert et al. 2000)—to derive PBLHT. The PBLHTSONDE VAP operates routinely at ARM observatories and mobile facilities, with data available from the ARM Data Center shortly after sounding observations are collected (Sivaraman et al. 2013). However, radiosonde observations are limited by their low temporal resolution. Most stations launch soundings only twice daily, which constrains the ability to investigate and characterize the temporal evolution of the PBL using radiosonde data alone. The use of continuous remote-sensing observations provides high temporal resolution of PBLHT estimates. These observations include aerosol lidars (Dang et al. 2019, Su et al. 2020), Doppler lidar (DL; Tucker et al. 2009, Krishnamurthy et al. 2021), and water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers (Turner et al. 2014). These observations provide valuable data on the PBL’s thermodynamic properties (e.g., water vapor and/or temperature lidars and radiometers), dynamic properties (e.g., DL), and distribution of tracer substances (e.g., aerosol lidars), all of which can be used to estimate PBLHT. ARM developed PBLHT estimates from the micropulse lidar (MPL; PBLHTMPL), Doppler lidar (PBLHTDL), and combined Raman lidar (RL)/atmospheric emitted radiance interferometer (AERI) thermodynamic profiles (PBLHTTHERMO). Each estimate captures different physical characteristics of the boundary layer—aerosol tracers, vertical velocity turbulence, and thermodynamic structure—and exhibits distinct strengths and limitations depending on the PBL regime and time of day. In addition, the ARM ceilometer (CEIL) provides three potential PBLHT candidates derived from the vendor's built-in algorithm. Building on these individual retrievals, ARM developed the PBLHTBEML VAP, which combines the four remote-sensing-based estimates with ancillary meteorological variables using the machine learning approach of Zhang et al. (2025) to produce a best-estimate PBLHT at 10-minute resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Examining the effects of soil entrainment during nuclear cloud rise on fallout predictions using a multiscale atmospheric modeling framework

Current operational models for nuclear cloud rise over land were developed and validated using observations from shallow-buried or surface detonations, where lofted soil quickly mixed with fission products from the detonation. These models poorly predict fallout from elevated detonations near the fallout-free height of burst (FFHOB), where interactions with the ground are limited and the mixing of fission products and lofted soil is incomplete. Fallout-free is a misnomer at this HOB, as fallout was observed in these cases, but was below the levels of concern, especially off-grounds of the nuclear test site. To correctly characterize and model fallout from detonations near the FFHOB, models must be developed which can capture the stratified nature of the particle and activity-size distributions within the cloud. Previously, it was shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can accurately simulate nuclear cloud rise for airbursts with little to no ground interactions (Arthur et al., 2021). That work is expanded here by (1) using a radiation-hydrodynamics code to improve the fireball initialization in WRF, (2) further developing an aerosol package from WRF-Chem to simulate lofted soil, and (3) combining the WRF cloud rise simulations with the operational models used at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) for fallout modeling. Using this combination of codes, the Upshot-Knothole Grable detonation, which was just below the FFHOB, is simulated from seconds after detonation through cloud rise and fallout, and results are compared to historical test data. Here, the results show improved prediction of dose rate and highlight the need to correctly characterize the entrainment of material into the cloud and the subsequent mixing of fission products with entrained material.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Differences in fine particle chemical composition on clear and cloudy days

Clouds are prevalent and alter fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) mass and chemical composition. Cloud-affected satellite retrievals are subject to higher uncertainty and are often removed from data products, hindering quantitative estimates of tropospheric chemical composition during cloudy times. We examine surface PM 2.5 chemical constituent concentrations in the Interagency Monitoring of PROtected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network in the United States during cloudy and clear-sky times defined using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud flags from 2010 to 2014 with a focus on differences in particle species that affect hygroscopicity and aerosol liquid water (ALW). Cloudy and clear-sky periods exhibit significant differences in PM 2.5 mass and chemical composition that vary regionally and seasonally. In the eastern US, relative humidity alone cannot explain differences in ALW, suggesting that emissions and in situ chemistry related to anthropogenic sources exert determining impacts. An implicit clear-sky bias may hinder efforts to quantitatively understand and improve representation of aerosol–cloud interactions, which remain dominant uncertainties in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗