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At least 109 records · Page 6

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Prediction of Aircraft Estimated Time of Arrival Using A Supervised Learning Approach

We present a novel data-driven approach for prediction of the estimated time of arrival (ETA) of aircraft in the terminal area via the implementation of a Random Forest regression model. The model uses data fused from a number of sources (flight track, weather, flight plan information, etc.) and provides predictions for the remaining flight time for aircraft landing at Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport. The predictions are made when the aircraft is at a distance of 200-miles from the airport. The results show that the model is able to predict estimated time of arrival to within ± 5 min for 90% of the flights in the test data with the mean absolute error being lower at 145 seconds. This paper covers the entire pipeline of data collection, preprocessing, setup and training of the ML model, and the results obtained for DFW.

Machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Relationship Between Bolide Entry Angle and Apparent Direction of Infrasound Signal Arrivals

Infrasound sensing offers critical capabilities for detecting and geolocating bolide events globally. However, the observed back azimuths, directions from which infrasound signals arrive at stations, often differ from the theoretical expectations based on the bolide’s peak brightness location. For objects with shallow entry angles, which traverse longer atmospheric paths, acoustic energy may be emitted from multiple points along the trajectory, leading to substantial variability in back azimuth residuals. This study investigates how the entry angle of energetic bolides affects the back azimuth deviations, independent of extrinsic factors such as atmospheric propagation, station noise, and signal processing methodologies. A theoretical framework, the Bolide Infrasound Back-Azimuth EXplorer Model (BIBEX-M), was developed to compute predicted back azimuths solely from geometric considerations. The model quantifies how these residuals vary as a function of source-to-receiver distance, revealing that bolides entering at shallow angles, e.g., 10°, can produce average residuals of 20°, with deviations reaching up to 46° at distances below 1000 km, and remaining significant even at 5000 km (up to 8°). In contrast, bolides with steeper entry angles, e.g., > 60°, show smaller deviations, typically under 5° at 1000 km and diminishing to less than ~1° beyond 5000 km. These findings attest to the need for careful interpretation when evaluating signal detections and estimating bolide locations. This work is not only pertinent to bolides but also to other high-energy, extended-duration atmospheric phenomena such as space debris and reentry events, where similar geometric considerations can influence infrasound arrival directions.

Acoustics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Weather and Flight Arrival Data

This dataset includes externalities: weather, number of arrival flights, and day of the week. Weather data are collected from the National Weather Service’s NY-Central Park Area record, and flight arrival data are collected from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flight Arrival Data for Each Airport

This dataset contains flight arrival data for each airport, which serves as the input for generating load profiles and estimating energy needs and fleet and charger requirements. ![image](distribution-flight-arrivals.png) Distribution of annual flight arrivals across different airport categories.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1974

Kilometer-wave type III burst - Harmonic emission revealed by direction and time of arrival

A type III solar burst was observed at seven frequencies between 3.5 MHz and 80 kHz by the Michigan experiment aboard the IMP-6 satellite. From the data burst direction of arrival as well as time of arrival can be determined. These quantities are predicted, using simple models whose parameters are varied to obtain a good fit to the observations. It is found that between 3.5 MHz and 230 kHz the observed radiation was emitted at the fundamental of the local plasma frequency, while below 230 kHz it was emitted at the second harmonic. The exciter particles that produced the burst onset and burst peak have velocities of 0.27 and 0.12, respectively, in units of the velocity of light.

Alvarez, H.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Flight experience with time-of-arrival control for STOL aircraft in the terminal area

A research program on STOL operating systems is underway at the Ames Research Center. One investigation is concerned with design, analysis, and flight test of promising four-dimensional RNAV systems. One promising system generates a capture flight path from the present aircraft position to a waypoint on a selected fixed STOL approach route. It predicts arrival time at the runway and controls time and position along the path. The system was flight tested using a digital avionics system on a Convair 340 and on an experimental powered-lift STOL airplane. Flight tests in the flight director mode show that the pilot can choose and change the desired time of arrival, and meet this time within a few seconds, in spite of navigation errors and varying winds. Initial tests of the automatic mode using a flight simulator and the NASA Augmentor Wing Jet STOL Research Aircraft (AWJSRA) show that good time control was achieved at the cost of excess throttle activity. This fault was later corrected.

Neuman, F.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Arrival time of satellite-broadened laser pulses

A method for measuring the time of arrival of very narrow laser pulses which have been reflected and randomly broadened by a target is examined. It is known that these return pulses from the target have very small rise times. A threshold detection algorithm that detects the rising edge of the pulse is used for obtaining the pulse arrival times. The errors of the scheme are evaluated numerically for different pulse shapes, and a loose bound on the errors of detecting a typical pulse is obtained. A gamma-density model is used to characterize the random gain processes of the optical receiver, and the effect of such random gains on the errors of threshold detection is analyzed.

Iyer, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

The prediction of fast stream front arrivals at the earth on the basis of solar wind measurements at smaller solar distances

The problems involved in the prediction of the arrival of fast solar wind streams at the earth on the basis of measurements made by space probes in the region between 0.3 and 1 AU are discussed. It is shown that arrival time predictions accurate to within a few hours that can be made at least as long as the large scale conditions on the Sun are relatively stationary as observed near the time of solar minimum. However, the latitudinal extent of the respective high speed streams is found to be important for making quantitative predictions. Coronal data sufficient for locating the sources of high speed streams can improve the precision of these predictions.

Rosenbauer, H.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Position surveillance using one active ranging satellite and time-of-arrival of a signal from an independent satellite

Position surveillance using one active ranging/communication satellite and the time-of-arrival of signals from an independent satellite was shown to be feasible and practical. A towboat on the Mississippi River was equipped with a tone-code ranging transponder and a receiver tuned to the timing signals of the GOES satellite. A similar transponder was located at the office of the towing company. Tone-code ranging interrogations were transmitted from the General Electric Earth Station Laboratory through ATS-6 to the towboat and to the ground truth transponder office. Their automatic responses included digital transmissions of time-of-arrival measurements derived from the GOES signals. The Earth Station Laboratory determined ranges from the satellites to the towboat and computed position fixes. The ATS-6 lines-of-position were more precise than 0.1 NMi, 1 sigma, and the GOES lines-of-position were more precise than 1.6 NMi, 1 sigma. High quality voice communications were accomplished with the transponders using a nondirectional antenna on the towboat. The simple and effective surveillance technique merits further evaluation using operational maritime satellites.

Anderson, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Airborne method to minimize fuel with fixed time-of-arrival constraints

A method for generating a minimum-fuel, fixed-range, fixed-time-of-arrival flight path in an on-board flight management system computer for commercial aircraft is described. It is shown that up to 6% of the fuel otherwise used can be saved by means of this capability, despite time-of-arrival delays of up to 30 min, by a medium-range, tri-jet transport aircraft.

Sorensen, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Air shower arrival directions measured at Buckland Park

The Buckland Park air shower array was operated for 3 years from 1979 to 1981 particularly for the study of anisotropies in the region of the knee of the size spectrum. The array which has been described in detail elsewhere was situated at a latitude of 35 S and had an effective size threshold of approx 3 x 10 to the 5th power particles (approx 3 x 10 to the 15th power Ev for vertical showers). A number of results from this experiment have already been published including anisotropy analyses (Gerhardy and Clay, 1983) and searches for very high energy gamma ray sources. The final distribution of measured shower arrival directions are presented here. These 1.3 x 10 to the 5th power events were selected as indicated in detail in Gerhardy and Clay (1983) and were essentially those events with well measured arrival directions. They are the same data set used in the above reference but no complete sky map has previously been presented.

Gerhardy, P. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

The Galileo arrival date selection process

The Galileo arrival date selection process has culminated in the selection of December 7,1995. This arrival date will provide excellent science opportunities at Jupiter as well as the first spacecraft reconnaissance ever of not one, but two asteroids during the cruise to Jupiter.

Ludwinski, Jan M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Determining Mars parking orbits which ensure tangential periapsis burns at arrival and departure

A method is presented which finds Mars parking orbits which allow tangential periapsis burns at both arrival and departure. This method accounts for the actual geometry at both arrival and departure between the hyperbolic asymptotes and the orbital plane, along with the precession effects caused by the oblateness of Mars. Thus, realistic Delta-V values (and hence initial low-earth orbit masses) are obtained for these orbits. The results obtained from the present method compare very well with a trajectory integration program while only requiring CPU times of about one minute. Therefore, due to the computational efficiency and accuracy, the present method would be an ideal tool to use in preliminary mission design, since it provides the opportunity to incorporate realistic Mars parking orbits effects.

Desai, Prasun N.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Profile negotiation: An air/ground automation integration concept for managing arrival traffic

NASA Ames Research Center and NASA Langley Research Center conducted a joint simulation study to evaluate a profile negotiation process (PNP) between a time-based air traffic control ATC system and an airplane equipped with a four dimensional flight management system (4D FMS). Prototype procedures were developed to support the functional implementation of this process. The PNP was designed to provide an arrival trajectory solution that satisfies the separation requirements of ATC while remaining as close as possible to the airplane's preferred trajectory. The Transport Systems Research Vehicle cockpit simulator was linked in real-time to the Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) for the experiment. Approximately 30 hours of simulation testing were conducted over a three week period. Active airline pilot crews and active Center controller teams participated as test subjects. Results from the experiment indicate the potential for successful incorporation of airplane preferred arrival trajectories in the CTAS automation environment. Controllers were able to consistently and effectively negotiate nominally conflict-free trajectories with pilots flying a 4D-FMS-equipped airplane. The negotiated trajectories were substantially closer to the airplane's preference than would have otherwise been possible without the PNP. Airplane fuel savings relative to baseline CTAS were achieved in the test scenarios. The datalink procedures and clearances developed for this experiment, while providing the necessary functionality, were found to be operationally unacceptable to the pilots. Additional pilot control and understanding of the proposed airplane-preferred trajectory and a simplified clearance procedure were cited as necessary for operational implementation of the concept. From the controllers' perspective, the main concerns were the ability of the 4D airplane to accurately track the negotiated trajectory and the workload required to support the PNP as implemented in this study.

Williams, David H.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Knowledge-based scheduling of arrival aircraft

A knowledge-based method for scheduling arrival aircraft in the terminal area has been implemented and tested in real-time simulation. The scheduling system automatically sequences, assigns landing times, and assigns runways to arrival aircraft by utilizing continuous updates of aircraft radar data and controller inputs. The scheduling algorithms is driven by a knowledge base which was obtained in over two thousand hours of controller-in-the-loop real-time simulation. The knowledge base contains a series of hierarchical 'rules' and decision logic that examines both performance criteria, such as delay reduction, as well as workload reduction criteria, such as conflict avoidance. The objective of the algorithms is to devise an efficient plan to land the aircraft in a manner acceptable to the air traffic controllers. This paper will describe the scheduling algorithms, give examples of their use, and present data regarding their potential benefits to the air traffic system.

Krzeczowski, K.↗

NASA NTRS1996

VLF long-range lightning location using the arrival time difference technique (ATD)

A new network of VLF receiving systems is currently being developed in the USA to support NASA's Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM). The new network will be deployed in the east coast of the US, including Puerto Rico, and will be operational in late 1995. The system should give affordable, near real-time, accurate lightning locating capabilities at long ranges and with extended coverage. It is based on the Arrival Time Difference (ATD) method of Lee (1986; 1990). The ATD technique is based on the estimation of the time of arrival of sferics detected over an 18 kHz bandwith. The ground system results will be compared and complemented with satellite optical measurements gathered with the already operational Optical Transient Detector (OTD) instrument and in due course with its successor the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning observations are important to understand atmospheric electrification phenomena, discharge processes, associated phenomena on earth (e.g. whistlers, explosive Spread-F) and other planets. In addition, lightning is a conspicuous indicator of atmospheric activity whose potential is just beginning to be recognized and utilized. On more prosaic grounds, lightning observations are important for protection of life, property and services.

Ierkic, H. Mario↗

NASA NTRS1995

Knowledge-Based Scheduling of Arrival Aircraft in the Terminal Area

A knowledge based method for scheduling arrival aircraft in the terminal area has been implemented and tested in real time simulation. The scheduling system automatically sequences, assigns landing times, and assign runways to arrival aircraft by utilizing continuous updates of aircraft radar data and controller inputs. The scheduling algorithm is driven by a knowledge base which was obtained in over two thousand hours of controller-in-the-loop real time simulation. The knowledge base contains a series of hierarchical 'rules' and decision logic that examines both performance criteria, such as delay reductions, as well as workload reduction criteria, such as conflict avoidance. The objective of the algorithm is to devise an efficient plan to land the aircraft in a manner acceptable to the air traffic controllers. This paper describes the scheduling algorithms, gives examples of their use, and presents data regarding their potential benefits to the air traffic system.

Krzeczowski, K. J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Gamma-Ray Burst Arrival Time Localizations: Simultaneous Observations by Mars Observer, Compton Gamma Ray Observatory and Ulysses

Between 1992 October 4 and 1993 August 1, concurrent coverage by the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), Mars Observer (MO), and Ulysses spacecraft was obtained for 78 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs). Although most of these were below the MO and Ulysses thresholds, nine were positively detected by all three spacecraft, with data quality adequate for quantitative localization analysis. All were localized independently to approximately 2 deg accuracy by the CGRO Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE). We computed arrival-time error boxes with larger dimensions ranging from a few arcminutes to the diameters of the BATSE-only boxes and with smaller dimensions in the arcminute range. Three events are of particular interest: GB 930704 (BATSE 2428) has been described as a possible repeater. The arrival-time information is consistent with that hypothesis, but only just so. The GB 930706 (2431) box, at approximately 1 min x 4 min, is the only one this small obtained since Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO) entered the Venusian atmosphere in 1992 October. Sensitive radio and optical observations of this location were made within 8 and 9 days of the burst, but no counterpart candidates were identified. GB 930801 (2477) is the first GRB that had its localization improved by taking into account BATSE Earth occultation.

Laros, J. G.↗