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DOE OSTI2021

Analytical gradients for molecular-orbital-based machine learning

We report molecular-orbital-based machine learning (MOB-ML) enables the prediction of accurate correlation energies at the cost of obtaining molecular orbitals. Here, we present the derivation, implementation, and numerical demonstration of MOB-ML analytical nuclear gradients, which are formulated in a general Lagrangian framework to enforce orthogonality, localization, and Brillouin constraints on the molecular orbitals. The MOB-ML gradient framework is general with respect to the regression technique (e.g., Gaussian process regression or neural networks) and the MOB feature design. We show that MOB-ML gradients are highly accurate compared to other ML methods on the ISO17 dataset while only being trained on energies for hundreds of molecules compared to energies and gradients for hundreds of thousands of molecules for the other ML methods. The MOB-ML gradients are also shown to yield accurate optimized structures at a computational cost for the gradient evaluation that is comparable to a density-corrected density functional theory calculation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to accelerate screening for Marcus reorganization energies

Understanding and predicting the charge transport properties of π-conjugated materials is an important challenge for designing new organic electronic devices, such as solar cells, plastic transistors, light-emitting devices, and chemical sensors. A key component of the hopping mechanism of charge transfer in these materials is the Marcus reorganization energy which serves as an activation barrier to hole or electron transfer. While modern density functional methods have proven to accurately predict trends in intramolecular reorganization energy, such calculations are computationally expensive. In this work, we outline active machine learning methods to predict computed intramolecular reorganization energies of a wide range of polythiophenes and their use toward screening new compounds with low internal reorganization energies. Our models have an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of ±0.113 eV, but a much smaller RMSE of only ±0.036 eV on the new screening set. Since the larger error derives from high-reorganization energy compounds, the new method is highly effective to screen for compounds with potentially efficient charge transport parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

What drives the scatter of local star-forming galaxies in the BPT diagrams? A Machine Learning based analysis

ABSTRACT We investigate which physical properties are most predictive of the position of local star forming galaxies on the BPT diagrams, by means of different Machine Learning (ML) algorithms. Exploiting the large statistics from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), we define a framework in which the deviation of star-forming galaxies from their median sequence can be described in terms of the relative variations in a variety of observational parameters. We train artificial neural networks (ANN) and random forest (RF) trees to predict whether galaxies are offset above or below the sequence (via classification), and to estimate the exact magnitude of the offset itself (via regression). We find, with high significance, that parameters primarily associated to variations in the nitrogen-over-oxygen abundance ratio (N/O) are the most predictive for the [N ii]-BPT diagram, whereas properties related to star formation (like variations in SFR or EW(H α)) perform better in the [S ii]-BPT diagram. We interpret the former as a reflection of the N/O–O/H relationship for local galaxies, while the latter as primarily tracing the variation in the effective size of the S+ emitting region, which directly impacts the [S ii] emission lines. This analysis paves the way to assess to what extent the physics shaping local BPT diagrams is also responsible for the offsets seen in high redshift galaxies or, instead, whether a different framework or even different mechanisms need to be invoked.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Intelligent Prediction of States in Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar power plant (MARS)

In power electronics, prediction of states may be used for identification of faults, determination of aging of components, identification of bad data measurements, among others. Prediction of states in power electronics have broadly been based on: (a) physics-based models, (b) data-driven models, and (c) hybrid models. In this paper, data-driven approaches are presented for intelligent prediction of states in multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) and compared. The data-set needed to train the data-driven models based on artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms has been identified and the trained models are evaluated under different extrapolated normal and abnormal operating conditions. The AI algorithms include nonlinear auto-regressive exogenous model (NARX), spiking neural networks (SNN), and decision tree. The models are compared and contrasted. The best model (NARX) is evaluated under different normal and abnormal operating conditions that have indicated accurate prediction.

Debnath, Suman↗

DOE OSTI2021

Materials representation and transfer learning for multi-property prediction

The adoption of machine learning in materials science has rapidly transformed materials property prediction. Hurdles limiting full capitalization of recent advancements in machine learning include the limited development of methods to learn the underlying interactions of multiple elements as well as the relationships among multiple properties to facilitate property prediction in new composition spaces. To address these issues, we introduce the Hierarchical Correlation Learning for Multi-property Prediction (H-CLMP) framework that seamlessly integrates: (i) prediction using only a material's composition, (ii) learning and exploitation of correlations among target properties in multi-target regression, and (iii) leveraging training data from tangential domains via generative transfer learning. The model is demonstrated for prediction of spectral optical absorption of complex metal oxides spanning 69 three-cation metal oxide composition spaces. H-CLMP accurately predicts non-linear composition-property relationships in composition spaces for which no training data are available, which broadens the purview of machine learning to the discovery of materials with exceptional properties. This achievement results from the principled integration of latent embedding learning, property correlation learning, generative transfer learning, and attention models. The best performance is obtained using H-CLMP with transfer learning [H-CLMP(T)] wherein a generative adversarial network is trained on computational density of states data and deployed in the target domain to augment prediction of optical absorption from composition. H-CLMP(T) aggregates multiple knowledge sources with a framework that is well suited for multi-target regression across the physical sciences.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Nugget Size of Resistance Spot Welds Using Infrared Thermal Videos With Image Segmentation and Convolutional Neural Network

Resistance spot welding (RSW) is a widely adopted joining technique in automotive industry. Recent advancement in sensing technology makes it possible to collect thermal videos of the weld nugget during RSW using an infrared (IR) camera. The effective and timely analysis of such thermal videos has the potential of enabling in situ nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of the weld nugget by predicting nugget thickness and diameter. Deep learning (DL) has demonstrated to be effective in analyzing imaging data in many applications. However, the thermal videos in RSW present unique data-level challenges that compromise the effectiveness of most pre-trained DL models. We propose a novel image segmentation method for handling the RSW thermal videos to improve the prediction performance of DL models in RSW. The proposed method transforms raw thermal videos into spatial-temporal instances in four steps: video-wise normalization, removal of uninformative images, watershed segmentation, and spatial-temporal instance construction. The extracted spatial-temporal instances serve as the input data for training a DL-based NDE model. The proposed method is able to extract high-quality data with spatial-temporal correlations in the thermal videos, while being robust to the impact of unknown surface emissivity. Overall, our case studies demonstrate that the proposed method achieves better prediction of nugget thickness and diameter than predicting without the transformation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1992

LAI inversion from optical reflectance using a neural network trained with a multiple scattering model

The inversion of the leaf area index (LAI) canopy parameter from optical spectral reflectance measurements is obtained using a backpropagation artificial neural network trained using input-output pairs generated by a multiple scattering reflectance model. The problem of LAI estimation over sparse canopies (LAI < 1.0) with varying soil reflectance backgrounds is particularly difficult. Standard multiple regression methods applied to canopies within a single homogeneous soil type yield good results but perform unacceptably when applied across soil boundaries, resulting in absolute percentage errors of >1000 percent for low LAI. Minimization methods applied to merit functions constructed from differences between measured reflectances and predicted reflectances using multiple-scattering models are unacceptably sensitive to a good initial guess for the desired parameter. In contrast, the neural network reported generally yields absolute percentage errors of <30 percent when weighting coefficients trained on one soil type were applied to predicted canopy reflectance at a different soil background.

Smith, James A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial neural networks estimate evapotranspiration for Miscanthus × giganteus as effectively as empirical model but with fewer inputs

Estimating actual evapotranspiration (ET) is particularly crucial for addressing how vegetation affects the water balance of ecosystems. ET estimation can be complex with empirical models due to their many parameters and reliance on aridity. In contrast, artificial neural networks (ANNs) could potentially estimate ET with fewer and more common meteorological parameters. In this study, we trained two ANNs, one using a feed-forward approach (FFN) and the other a nonlinear auto-regressive network (NARX), to predict ET and compared them to the commonly used empirical model Granger and Gray (GG). We trained our models on a nine-year eddy covariance (EC) dataset for Miscanthu s × giganteus ( M . × giganteus ) from Illinois (UIEF), then tested them using out-of-sample data from both UIEF and a different location in Iowa (SABR) to compare the accuracy of FFN, NARX, and GG models in estimating daily ET. A combination of air temperature (T a ) and solar radiation (R s ) was chosen as inputs due to the highest R 2 for FFN (R 2 = 0.79, 0.81, and 0.79 for training, testing, and validation, respectively) and only T a for NARX (R 2 = 0.70 for out-of-sample validation). The predictive power of the FFN model was superior to the NARX and GG models at the UIEF site (R 2 = 0.84, 0.70, and 0.83 for out-of-sample validation, respectively). Our analysis showed that ANN approaches are as accurate as empirical approaches for estimating ET but use fewer inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2004

NASA Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research: South Carolina

The use of an appropriate relationship model is critical for reliable prediction of future urban growth. Identification of proper variables and mathematic functions and determination of the weights or coefficients are the key tasks for building such a model. Although the conventional logistic regression model is appropriate for handing land use problems, it appears insufficient to address the issue of interdependency of the predictor variables. This study used an alternative approach to simulation and modeling urban growth using artificial neural networks. It developed an operational neural network model trained using a robust backpropagation method. The model was applied in the Myrtle Beach region of South Carolina, and tested with both global datasets and areal datasets to examine the strength of both regional models and areal models. The results indicate that the neural network model not only has many theoretic advantages over other conventional mathematic models in representing the complex urban systems, but also is practically superior to the logistic model in its capability to predict urban growth with better - accuracy and less variation. The neural network model is particularly effective in terms of successfully identifying urban patterns in the rural areas where the logistic model often falls short. It was also found from the area-based tests that there are significant intra-regional differentiations in urban growth with different rules and rates. This suggests that the global modeling approach, or one model for the entire region, may not be adequate for simulation of a urban growth at the regional scale. Future research should develop methods for identification and subdivision of these areas and use a set of area-based models to address the issues of multi-centered, intra- regionally differentiated urban growth.

Sutton, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Computational optimal transport for molecular spectra: The fully discrete case

In this study, the use of computational optimal transport is investigated as a tool for comparing two molecular spectra. Unlike other techniques for comparing molecular spectra in a pattern-recognition framework, transport distances simultaneously encode information about line positions and intensities. In addition, it is shown that transport distances are a useful alternative to Euclidean distances as Euclidean distances are based on line-by-line comparisons, while transport distances reflect broader features of molecular spectra and adequately compare spectra with different resolutions. This paper includes a tutorial on the use of optimal transport and investigates several well-chosen examples to illustrate the utility of computational optimal transport for comparing molecular spectra.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial to Spiking Neural Networks Conversion with Calibration in Scientific Machine Learning

Here, we introduce a method to convert physics-informed neural networks (PINNs), commonly used in scientific machine learning, to spiking neural networks (SNNs), which are expected to have higher energy efficiency compared to traditional artificial neural networks (ANNs). We first extend the calibration technique of SNNs to arbitrary activation functions beyond ReLU, making it more versatile, and we prove a theorem that ensures the effectiveness of the calibration. We successfully convert PINNs to SNNs, enabling computational efficiency for diverse regression tasks in solving multiple differential equations, including the unsteady Navier–Stokes equations. We demonstrate great gains in terms of overall efficiency, including separable PINNs (SPINNs), which accelerate the training process. Overall, this is the first work of this kind and the proposed method achieves relatively good accuracy with low spike rates.

PINN↗

NASA NTRS2009

Hybrid NN/SVM Computational System for Optimizing Designs

A computational method and system based on a hybrid of an artificial neural network (NN) and a support vector machine (SVM) (see figure) has been conceived as a means of maximizing or minimizing an objective function, optionally subject to one or more constraints. Such maximization or minimization could be performed, for example, to optimize solve a data-regression or data-classification problem or to optimize a design associated with a response function. A response function can be considered as a subset of a response surface, which is a surface in a vector space of design and performance parameters. A typical example of a design problem that the method and system can be used to solve is that of an airfoil, for which a response function could be the spatial distribution of pressure over the airfoil. In this example, the response surface would describe the pressure distribution as a function of the operating conditions and the geometric parameters of the airfoil. The use of NNs to analyze physical objects in order to optimize their responses under specified physical conditions is well known. NN analysis is suitable for multidimensional interpolation of data that lack structure and enables the representation and optimization of a succession of numerical solutions of increasing complexity or increasing fidelity to the real world. NN analysis is especially useful in helping to satisfy multiple design objectives. Feedforward NNs can be used to make estimates based on nonlinear mathematical models. One difficulty associated with use of a feedforward NN arises from the need for nonlinear optimization to determine connection weights among input, intermediate, and output variables. It can be very expensive to train an NN in cases in which it is necessary to model large amounts of information. Less widely known (in comparison with NNs) are support vector machines (SVMs), which were originally applied in statistical learning theory. In terms that are necessarily oversimplified to fit the scope of this article, an SVM can be characterized as an algorithm that (1) effects a nonlinear mapping of input vectors into a higher-dimensional feature space and (2) involves a dual formulation of governing equations and constraints. One advantageous feature of the SVM approach is that an objective function (which one seeks to minimize to obtain coefficients that define an SVM mathematical model) is convex, so that unlike in the cases of many NN models, any local minimum of an SVM model is also a global minimum.

Rai, Man Mohan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment

Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.

machine learning↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aero-Engines AI - A Machine-Learning App for Aircraft Engine Concepts Assessment

Effective deployment of machine-learning (ML) models could drive a high level of efficiency in aircraft engine conceptual design. Aero-Engines AI is a user-friendly app that has been created to deploy trained machine-learning (ML) models to assess aircraft engine concepts. It was created using tkinter, a GUI (graphical user interface) module that is built into the standard Python library. Employing tkinter greatly facilitates the sharing of ML application as an executable file which can be run on Windows machines (without the need to have Python or any library installed). The app gets user input for a turbofan design, preprocesses the input data, and deploys trained ML models to predict turbofan thrust specific fuel consumption (TSFC), engine weight, core size, and turbomachinery stage-counts. The ML predictive models were built by employing supervised deep-learning and K-nearest neighbor regression algorithms to study patterns in an existing open-source database of production and research turbofan engines. They were trained, cross-validated, and tested in Keras, an open-source neural networks API (application programming interface) written in Python, with TensorFlow (Google open-source artificial intelligence library) serving as the backend engine. The smooth deployment of these ML models using the app shows that Aero-Engines AI is an easy-touse and a time-saving tool for aircraft engine design-space exploration during the conceptual design stage. Current version of the app focuses on the performance prediction of conventional turbofans. However, the scope of the app can easily be easily expanded to include other engine types (such as turboshaft and hybrid-electric systems) after their ML models are developed. Overall, the use of a machine-learning app for aircraft engine concept assessment represents a promising area of development in aircraft engine conceptual design.

machine learning↗

DOE OSTI2023

All-polymer nanocomposites having superior strength, toughness and ultralow energy dissipation

Toughening polymers has attracted significant interest. Traditionally, polymer toughness is enhanced by constructing polymer networks or introducing sacrificial bonds into the chains between crosslink points. These strategies, though, introduce pronounced energy dissipation and associated heat, both of which are undesirable under long-term cyclic loading, for example at the interface of implants in the human body. By incorporating single-chain nanoparticles (SCNPs) into linear polymer chains to generate all-polymer nanocomposites (APNCs), we have been able to achieve high strength, high toughness with low energy dissipation. Using a combination of simulation and experimental results, we are advancing a “SCNPs effect” where tightly cross-linked SCNPs produce a modulus contrast to achieve strengthening and toughening. Benefitting from the soft interface, the penetrable and deformable SCNPs cause the surrounding polymer chains to move in concert, significantly reducing the interfacial friction to achieve low energy dissipation. The intramolecular cross-linking of the SCNPs and adhesion between the SCNPs and polymer matrix are critical for realizing such high-performance systems. Based on a Gaussian regression model and back propagation (BP) neural network, the mechanical strength can be predicted and is supported by simulations. Finally, the APNC concept described can be applied to elastomers and gels, broadening its utilization in high-cycle and low-dissipation applications, like soft robots, flexible sensors and cartilage replacements, and artificial heart valves.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence to Predict Novel Eutectic Alloys

The goal of this project was to train an artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the fractional composition and melting point of eutectic alloys using fundamental atomic properties as inputs. The fundamental properties considered include atomic number, atomic weight, atomic radius, valence electron concentration, electronegativity, and electron affinity. The project involved several phases, starting with data preparation, where phase diagram data was harvested from the ASM International database. Approximately 1300 binary eutectics were collected and cleaned to ensure relevance and accuracy. A regression model was selected for training, utilizing a rectified linear unit as the activation function. Various model configurations were evaluated for predictive accuracy, with validation techniques employed to ensure robustness. The model demonstrated predictive capabilities above random guessing and was able to achieve up to 11% accuracy under certain conditions. An ablative test identified atomic radius and valence electron concentration as critical inputs for model performance. Incorporating the melting point of atomic constituents improved accuracy significantly, although ultimately the model’s predictive capability still fell short of the 80% target. This report details the methodology, results, and implications of the research, contributing to the understanding of employing artificial intelligence to predict the phase transition behavior of eutectic alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗