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NASA NTRS2014

Communications Technology Assessment for the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) Link

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) is performing communications systems research for the Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) in the National Airspace System (NAS) Project. One of the goals of the communications element is to select and test a communications technology for the UAS Control and Non-Payload Communications (CNPC) link. The GRC UAS Modeling and Simulation (M/S) Sub Team will evaluate the performance of several potential technologies for the CNPC link through detailed software simulations. In parallel, an industry partner will implement a technology in hardware to be used for flight testing. The task necessitated a technical assessment of existing Radio Frequency (RF) communications technologies to identify the best candidate systems for use as the UAS CNPC link. The assessment provides a basis for selecting the technologies for the M/S effort and the hardware radio design. The process developed for the technical assessments for the Future Communications Study1 (FCS) was used as an initial starting point for this assessment. The FCS is a joint Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and Eurocontrol study on technologies for use as a future aeronautical communications link. The FCS technology assessment process methodology can be applied to the UAS CNPC link; however the findings of the FCS are not directly applicable because of different requirements between a CNPC link and a general aeronautical data link. Additional technologies were added to the potential technologies list from the State of the Art Unmanned Aircraft System Communication Assessment developed by NASA GRC2. This document investigates the state of the art of communications as related to UAS. A portion of the document examines potential communications systems for a UAS communication architecture. Like the FCS, the state of the art assessment surveyed existing communications technologies. It did not, however, perform a detailed assessment of the technology necessary to recommend a technology for the UAS CNPC link. The technical assessment process, as shown in Figure 1, consists of the following steps. First, candidate RF communications technologies are identified. An initial review of each of these technologies is then performed to determine if the technology appears to be a good candidate and requires further review. Any technology that can be shown to be inadequate at that point is removed from consideration to allow for more detailed analysis of the remaining technologies. Criteria for the detailed assessments are defined and a scoring methodology is devised. This is followed by the detailed review and scoring of each technology. The least favorable technologies are removed during the process until only the few best candidates remain.

Aircraft Command and Control↗

NASA NTRS2015

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Development and Validation of Sensorimotor Assessment Tasks Using Spaceflight Analogs

INTRODUCTION Exploration class missions will require a new level of crew autonomy to self-assess and treat their sensorimotor dysfunction around periods of gravitational transition, where sensorimotor disturbances are at their highest. There is a need to define sensorimotor assessment thresholds that indicate when performance in early extravehicular activities (EVAs) might be impacted or unsafe. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a set of assessment tasks using sensorimotor spaceflight analogs including the Sensorimotor Disorientation Analog (SDA) and +3G x sustained centrifugation. METHODS For the SDA, forty-one healthy non-astronaut subjects (21 males, 20 females; Mean ± SD, Age: 34.0 ± 7.8 years) volunteered to participate in this study. Subjects attended two testing sessions: 1) familiarization to the tasks and baseline data collection, and 2) tasks completed under two levels of sensorimotor disorientation. Subjects performed a series of seven sensorimotor assessment tasks followed by two operationally relevant EVA analog tasks. The sensorimotor assessments tasks, ordered from least to most provocative of the sensorimotor system, included: postural stability, step test, prone/supine recovery from fall (RFF), four-square-step-test, obstacle negotiation with turns (OTT), kneel-and-reach, and augmented reality full-body coordination. The operational analog tasks included a top-hatch capsule egress and a 5-minute EVA traversal. Disorientation was applied via the SDA which utilized galvanic vestibular stimulation and weighted trunk, wrists, and ankles to target the vestibular and proprioceptive systems such that performance while wearing the SDA mimicked astronaut postflight performance at R+0 and R+1. Sixteen healthy non-astronaut subjects (10 males, 6 females; Age: 35.0 ± 9.5 years) completed +3G x 60-minute sustained centrifugation as an established spaceflight analog replicating the vestibular disruptions seen postflight. Subjects completed a pre-session which included familiarization to the tasks and a 5-minute centrifuge spin. The data collection session included, in order, a baseline data collection, 60-minute centrifuge spin, immediate post-centrifuge data collection, 45-minute seated recovery, and a final data collection. The same assessment and operational analog tasks were conducted as described above. RESULTS Pearsons’ correlation r-values were calculated between assessment and operational analog tasks. The two assessment tasks with the strongest correlations to the operational analog tasks were the RFF (SDA: r≥ 0.57, Centrifuge: r ≥0.55) and OTT (SDA: r≥ 0.66, Centrifuge: r ≥ 0.49). For brevity, repeated measures ANOVA with follow-up paired t-tests are discussed for these two assessment tasks. The SDA found significant differences between all three levels of disorientation for both RFF and OTT (p < 0.001). Significant differences were also found between baseline and immediate post centrifuge testing for both the RFF (p≤ 0.011) and OTT (p = 0.001). Additional results are forthcoming for both disorientation paradigms. DISCUSSION These validation studies provide evidence for down-selection of the assessment tasks that were able to distinguish between levels of sensorimotor disorientation and correlate to performance in operationally relevant tasks for use in upcoming Artemis missions.

S C Moudy↗

NASA NTRS2008

Lunar Surface Habitat Configuration Assessment: Methodology and Observations

The Lunar Habitat Configuration Assessment evaluated the major habitat approaches that were conceptually developed during the Lunar Architecture Team II Study. The objective of the configuration assessment was to identify desired features, operational considerations, and risks to derive habitat requirements. This assessment only considered operations pertaining to the lunar surface and did not consider all habitat conceptual designs developed. To examine multiple architectures, the Habitation Focus Element Team defined several adequate concepts which warranted the need for a method to assess the various configurations. The fundamental requirement designed into each concept included the functional and operational capability to support a crew of four on a six-month lunar surface mission; however, other conceptual aspects were diverse in comparison. The methodology utilized for this assessment consisted of defining figure of merits, providing relevant information, and establishing a scoring system. In summary, the assessment considered the geometric configuration of each concept to determine the complexity of unloading, handling, mobility, leveling, aligning, mating to other elements, and the accessibility to the lunar surface. In theory, the assessment was designed to derive habitat requirements, potential technology development needs and identify risks associated with living and working on the lunar surface. Although the results were more subjective opposed to objective, the assessment provided insightful observations for further assessments and trade studies of lunar surface habitats. This overall methodology and resulting observations will be describe in detail and illustrative examples will be discussed.

Carpenter, Amanda↗

NASA NTRS2011

Probabilistic Risk Assessment Procedures Guide for NASA Managers and Practitioners (Second Edition)

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and logical analysis method aimed at identifying and assessing risks in complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance. NASA's objective is to better understand and effectively manage risk, and thus more effectively ensure mission and programmatic success, and to achieve and maintain high safety standards at NASA. NASA intends to use risk assessment in its programs and projects to support optimal management decision making for the improvement of safety and program performance. In addition to using quantitative/probabilistic risk assessment to improve safety and enhance the safety decision process, NASA has incorporated quantitative risk assessment into its system safety assessment process, which until now has relied primarily on a qualitative representation of risk. Also, NASA has recently adopted the Risk-Informed Decision Making (RIDM) process [1-1] as a valuable addition to supplement existing deterministic and experience-based engineering methods and tools. Over the years, NASA has been a leader in most of the technologies it has employed in its programs. One would think that PRA should be no exception. In fact, it would be natural for NASA to be a leader in PRA because, as a technology pioneer, NASA uses risk assessment and management implicitly or explicitly on a daily basis. NASA has probabilistic safety requirements (thresholds and goals) for crew transportation system missions to the International Space Station (ISS) [1-2]. NASA intends to have probabilistic requirements for any new human spaceflight transportation system acquisition. Methods to perform risk and reliability assessment in the early 1960s originated in U.S. aerospace and missile programs. Fault tree analysis (FTA) is an example. It would have been a reasonable extrapolation to expect that NASA would also become the world leader in the application of PRA. That was, however, not to happen. Early in the Apollo program, estimates of the probability for a successful roundtrip human mission to the moon yielded disappointingly low (and suspect) values and NASA became discouraged from further performing quantitative risk analyses until some two decades later when the methods were more refined, rigorous, and repeatable. Instead, NASA decided to rely primarily on the Hazard Analysis (HA) and Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) methods for system safety assessment.

Stamatelatos,Michael↗

NASA NTRS2016

Enabling Research Tools for Sustained Climate Assessment

The U.S. Global Change Research Program Sustained Assessment process benefits from long-term investments in Earth science research that enable the scientific community to conduct assessment-relevant science. To this end, NASA initiated several research programs over the past five years to support the Earth observation community in developing indicators, datasets, research products, and tools to support ongoing and future National Climate Assessments. These activities complement NASA's ongoing Earth science research programs. One aspect of the assessment portfolio funds four "enabling tools" projects at NASA research centers. Each tool leverages existing capacity within the center, but has developed tailored applications and products for National Climate Assessments. The four projects build on the capabilities of a global atmospheric reanalysis (MERRA-2), a continental U.S. land surface reanalysis (NCA-LDAS), the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX), and a Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Here, we provide a brief overview of each enabling tool, highlighting the ways in which it has advanced assessment science to date. We also discuss how the assessment community can access and utilize these tools for National Climate Assessments and other sustained assessment activities.

Research↗

NASA NTRS2021

Normalization Method and Application for MODIS TEB Assessments using Earth Scene Measurements

Selected Earth targets are commonly used for satellite sensor calibration assessments (e.g. sensor stability and inter-comparisons). Moreover, typical scenes used for the calibration assessment of the thermal emissive bands (TEBs) includeDome Concordia (Dome-C), ocean, desert, and deep convective clouds (DCC). Reference data used for these calibration assessments can come from another band, another instrument, or ground measurements. The Dome-C site, covered with uniformly-distributed permanent snow, is normally used for the assessment of the TEBsat cold temperatures. Furthermore, ocean and desert measurements prove useful for scenes with higher temperatures. The DCC, one of the most consistent and coldest targets, can be used for the TEBs calibration and product stability assessments. MODIS band 31 (~ 11 m) can be used as a reference for these scenes. However, measurements over these scenes have seasonal variations, and the DCC brightness temperatures (BTs) have asymmetrical distributions. These features can introduce additional uncertainty to the stability assessments. A normalization method is applied by using an empirical model to derive reference-dependent BTs. Using the developed empirical model, measurements can be normalized to a reference BT in order to enhance the calibration assessment’s accuracy. This method is evaluated using all four scene types (i.e. ocean, desert, snow (Dome-C), and DCC) and applied to all the Terra and Aqua MODIS TEBs. Stability assessments over the instruments’ entire data records are presented and discussed. The technique can be applied in future efforts to support MODIS TEBs calibration assessments.

MODIS TEB↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating The Relationships Between Supine Propriorception Assessments with Upright Functional Mobility and Balance Tests

INTRODUCTION Upon return to Earth, spaceflight sensorimotor adaptations can result in impaired posture and locomotion [1], [2], and current exercise countermeasures in the International Space Station are not sufficient to maintain sensorimotor function. In-flight countermeasures and assessment tools for sensorimotor function are needed to mitigate risks associated with mission-critical task performance upon return to Earth or arrival to 0.38 G on Mars. One proposed countermeasure for proprioceptive deconditioning includes training on a tilt board device [3], which will be tested in an upcoming bed rest study. In preparation for the said study, the objective of this pilot study is to compare performance in supine proprioceptive assessments to performance in functional upright activities. The results are intended to guide the selection of supine assessment tools for the upcoming bedrest study and the development of future inflight proprioceptive training and assessment tools for exploration missions. METHODS Seventeen healthy participants (8 males and 9 females, 27.9 ± 8.5 years) provided informed consent as approved by the Institutional Review Board (IRB) at NASA. A horizontal air-bearing sled was used to provide a proprioceptive challenge in a supine body orientation, allowing for mediolateral motion with minimal friction during supine stance [4]. Participants were loaded axially (30 to 60% body weight) with their feet on a vertically oriented tilt board and instructed to perform supine assessment activities using custom software that displays a cursor controlled by tilting the tilt board. In a single-leg static activity on the tilt board (TB-St), performance was measured as the percent time spent on a center target during a 30-second trial. During a two-feet dynamic activity on the tilt board (TB-Dy), performance was measured as the number of targets captured in 30 seconds. These supine tasks were compared to performance during two upright activities used to represent upright performance: completion time for a functional mobility task (FMT) [2],[5] and a performance score from force plate sway data during 30-second single-leg upright standing (USL). RESULTS AND DISCUSSION A Spearman's rank-order correlation was run to assess the relationship between upright and supine assessments. There were statistically significant, strong correlations between scores for the FMT and each TB activity, including TB-St, rs(17) = 0.50, p<0.05, TB-Dy3, rs(17) = 0.73, p<0.001, and TB-Dy9, rs(15) = 0.53, p<0.05. There were no statistically significant correlations between USL and each TB activity. Despite a lack of correlation with upright single-leg balance, the ability of the TB to indicate upright performance in the FMT is promising, as this task is a standard post-flight measure designed to characterize locomotor dysfunction [2], [5]. CONCLUSION These efforts will inform the selection of an appropriate sensorimotor assessment method for the upcoming bed rest study and similar future studies. While current work uses a bed rest analog to develop these technologies, future work aims to prepare capabilities for future in-flight sensorimotor training and assessment to mitigate the risks of proprioception impairment after spaceflight. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This work was supported by the University Space Research Association Internship Program. REFERENCES [1] Mulavara A.P. et al (2018) Med Sci Sports Exerc, 50(9), 1961-1980. [2] Mulavara A.P. et al (2010) Exp Brain Res, 202(3), 649-659. [3] Macaulay T.R. et al (2021) Front. Syst. Neurosci., 15, 658-985. [4] Goel R. et al (2017) Front. Syst. Neurosci, 11. [5] Koppelmans V. et al (2013) BMC Neurology, 12.

R Bellisle↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

Decision analysis processes outlined in systems engineering references, such as the Systems Engineering Body of Knowledge [1] or the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook [2], recommend following a series of steps to support decision-making for engineering applications. These steps are consistent across the literature and typically involve defining objectives, defining relevant criteria against which candidate alternatives can be assessed, selecting an evaluation method, assessing alternatives, and making a recommendation based on this assessment. These approaches are well-suited to assess systems for which sets of common objectives and constraints can be identified. A vast body of literature describes their application to numerous engineering problems, and many methods have been developed since the middle of the 20th century to support the assessment of candidate alternatives for such systems [3, 4, 5, 6]. These approaches, however, show some limitations when decisions pertain to systems of systems. These collections of individual systems typically do not share a common set of objectives and constraints, tend to be highly complex, and the definition of assessable, high-value candidate alternatives poses a challenge due to interdependencies. The formulation, development, operation, and funding of Earth observing missions are such that gaps may occur between missions, therefore impacting the continuity of measurements. These Earth observing mission architectures constitute systems of systems for which a common set of objectives and constraints can be challenging to define. When tasked with assessing gaps that may occur for a series of spaceborne missions that address similar science parameters, the authors therefore proposed to depart from the traditional objective- and criteria-based approach and instead adopted a scenario-based approach. This approach does not require a prioritized set of common objectives; rather, it assesses the impact of possible decisions on the system-of-systems and characterizes its possible future states. It also offers the flexibility to adjust assumptions, update inputs, and refine supporting models over time, while enabling the rapid, early identification of challenges and key decision points. By simulating the impact of potential decisions on the entirety of the system-of-systems, the approach enables the synchronization of multiple decisions that typically occur at the level of the individual system. This paper provides an overview of the approach that was developed to assess continuity gaps for a series of operational and planned spaceborne Earth observing missions, a description of its application to the problem at hand, and a discussion of currently known limitations.

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Scenario-Based Approach to Assess Continuity Gaps in Earth Observations

scenario earth observations continuity gaps↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Communication and Social Science in the Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) Assessment

Every two years, NASA conducts an in-depth assessment of the satellite Earth observation data needs of U.S. federal civilian agencies submitted through the Satellite Needs Working Group (SNWG) survey. The SNWG assessment occurs at the nexus of science and people: in the 2022 assessment, over 100 scientists across NASA, NOAA, and USGS were organized to interview over 165 end users at 29 agencies about their unique satellite needs, brainstorm a range of solutions to meet those needs, and communicate back to agencies about resources available for meeting their needs. The innovative approaches to communication, organization, and team make-up that will be described in this talk are vital to the success of the SNWG assessment. As the first major step in evaluating a satellite need, the tri-agency assessment team interviews the agency SMEs who submitted the survey to understand how satellite data could help inform their decision-making process or enable them to fulfill their key responsibilities. In preparation, NASA utilizes social scientists to provide training to all assessment participants on how to hold a discovery-centered interview, including starting with a purpose, creating a welcoming space, exploring all aspects and edges of the need, and brainstorming possible solutions to meet the need. After the interviews, assessment participants propose and review solutions across all thematic areas, seeking those that will help multiple agencies. During the selection process, agencies expected to benefit from a new solution have an opportunity to provide feedback on the proposed activity and are invited to co-design the solution with NASA, should it be implemented. The organization of needs and solutions takes place in Asana, a workflow management tool adapted for the SNWG assessment, and the Report Generation Tool (RGT) enables assessment teams to collaboratively write reports that are returned to each agency with information on current and upcoming resources that help meet their needs.

Katrina Virts↗

NASA NTRS1972

The management of technology assessment

The total problem concept of technology assessment, involving a comprehensive information management activity with an objective orientation to the assessment function is discussed. A brief overview of the technology assessment function and some past experiences are given. Fragmentation of assessment systems, optimum social subsystem for examination in particular assessments, and adequacy of assessments are studied. The magnitude of the technology assessment function and the level of support required for the effective performance of this function are also discussed. One type of institutional arrangement which might produce a close approximation to the total problem assessment approach is suggested.

Mayo, L. H.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A review of NASA-sponsored technology assessment projects

Recent technology assessment studies sponsored by NASA are reviewed, and a summary of the technical results as well as a critique of the methodologies are presented. The reviews include Assessment of Lighter-Than-Air Technology, Technology Assessment of Portable Energy RDT&P, Technology Assessment of Future Intercity Passenger Transportation Systems, and Technology Assessment of Space Disposal of Radioactive Nuclear Waste. The use of workshops has been introduced as a unique element of some of these assessments. Also included in this report is a brief synopsis of a method of quantifying opinions obtained through such group interactions. Representative of the current technology assessments, these studies cover a broad range of socio-political factors and issues in greater depth than previously considered in NASA sponsored studies. In addition to the lessons learned through the conduct of these studies, a few suggestions for improving the effectiveness of future technology assessments are provided.

Mascy, A. C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Transition from Research to Operations: Assessing Value of Experimental Forecast Products within the NWSFO Environment

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center seeks to accelerate the infusion of NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) observations, data assimilation and modeling research into NWS forecast operations and decision-making. To meet long-term program expectations, it is not sufficient simply to give forecasters sophisticated workstations or new forecast products without fully assessing the ways in which they will be utilized. Close communication must be established between the research and operational communities so that developers have a complete understanding of user needs. In turn, forecasters must obtain a more comprehensive knowledge of the modeling and sensing tools available to them. A major goal of the SPoRT Program is to develop metrics and conduct assessment studies with NWS forecasters to evaluate the impacts and benefits of ESE experimental products on forecast skill. At a glance the task seems relatively straightforward. However, performing assessment of experimental products in an operational environment is demanding. Given the tremendous time constraints placed on NWS forecasters, it is imperative that forecaster input be obtained in a concise unobtrusive manor. Great care must also be taken to ensure that forecasters understand their participation will eventually benefit them and WFO operations in general. Two requirements of the assessment plan developed under the SPoRT activity are that it 1) Can be implemented within the WFO environment; and 2) Provide tangible results for BOTH the research and operational communities. Supplemental numerical quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) were chosen as the first experimental SPoRT product to be evaluated during a Pilot Assessment Program conducted 1 May 2003 within the Huntsville AL National Weather Service Forecast Office. Forecast time periods were broken up into six- hour bins ranging from zero to twenty-four hours. Data were made available for display in AWIPS on an operational basis so they could be efficiently incorporated into the forecast process. The methodology used to assess the value of experimental QPFs compared to available operational products is best described as a three-tier approach involving both forecasters and research scientists. Tier-one is a web-based survey completed by duty forecasters on the aviation and public desks. The survey compiles information on how the experimental product was used in the forecast decision making process. Up to 6 responses per twenty-four hours can be compiled during a precipitation event. Tier-two consists of an event post mortem and experimental product assessment performed daily by the NASA/NWS Liaison. Tier-three is a detailed breakdown/analysis of specific events targeted by either the NWS SO0 or SPoRT team members. The task is performed by both NWS and NASA research scientists and may be conducted once every couple of months. The findings from the Pilot Assessment Program will be reported at the meeting.

Lapenta, William M.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Nutritional Status Assessment (SMO 016E)

It has not been possible to assess nutritional status of crew members on the ISS during flight because blood and urine could not be collected during ISS missions. Postflight observations of alterations in nutritional status for several nutrients are troubling, and we require the ability to monitor the status of these nutrients during flight to determine if there is a specific impetus or timeframe for these changes. In addition to the monitoring of crew nutritional status during flight, in-flight sample collection would allow better assessment of countermeasure effectiveness. SMO 016E is also designed to expand the current medical requirement for nutritional assessment (MR016L) to include additional normative markers for assessing crew health and countermeasure effectiveness. Additional markers of bone metabolism will be measured to better monitor bone health and the effectiveness of countermeasures to prevent bone resorption. New markers of oxidative damage will be measured to better assess the type of oxidative insults that occur during space flight. The array of nutritional assessment parameters will be expanded to include parameters that will allow us to better understand changes in folate and vitamin B6 status, and related cardiovascular risk factors during and after flight. Additionally, stress hormones and hormones that affect bone and muscle metabolism will also be measured. This additional assessment will allow us to better monitor the health of crew members and make more accurate recommendations for their rehabilitation. Several nutritional assessment parameters are altered at landing, but it is not known how long these changes persist. We extended the current protocol to include an additional postflight blood and urine sample collection 30 days after landing. Data are being collected before, during, and after flight. These data will provide a complete survey of how nutritional status and related systems are affected by space flight. Analyzing the data will help us to define nutritional requirements for long-duration missions. This expanded set of measurements will also aid in the identification of nutritional countermeasures to counteract, for example, the deleterious effects of microgravity on bone and muscle and the effects of space radiation.

Smith, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Designing a Better Spacecraft: Assessing Flight Operability of Human Rated Spacecraft

The design of a human rated spacecraft is a complex and costly process requiring the integrated assessment of many individual criteria. Historically, it has been difficult to include in that integrated assessment the design s full impact on the flight operations community and its costs. The unique "operability requirements" have not been well understood, nor has there been a well-defined set of criteria for assessing operability. As a result, flight operations organizations and program managers are often faced with difficult and costly operations phase implementations. In response, the Mission Operations Directorate at NASA s Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center has established a formal technique to evaluate and communicate the operational characteristics of spacecraft system designs for the Constellation Program. This process is not intended to replace or replicate other critical assessments such as risk, reliability and safety assessments. Instead, this new technique adds to the assessment toolset a means to address the concerns and potential cost drivers that are unique to the operational phase of a program and the flight operations community. This paper describes the implementation and application of this "Spacecraft Flight Operability Assessment Scale" in supporting vehicle design efforts. The six key factors of flight operability are defined, with guiding principles and goals stated for each factor. A standardized rating technique provides feedback that is useful to both the operations and program management communities. Sample assessments of legacy spacecraft, including the Space Shuttle and International Space Station systems, are provided to provide real world examples of this technique s application.

Crocker, Alan R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Risk Assessment Overview

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Prassinos, Peter G.↗