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98 records · Page 6

Advancing Drought Understanding, Monitoring and Prediction

Having the capacity to monitor droughts in near-real time and providing accurate drought prediction from weeks to seasons in advance can greatly reduce the severity of social and economic damage caused by drought, a leading natural hazard for North America. The congressional mandate to establish the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS; Public Law 109-430) in 2006 was a major impulse to develop, integrate, and provide drought information to meet the challenges posed by this hazard. Significant progress has been made on many fronts. On the research front, efforts by the broad scientific community have resulted in improved understanding of North American droughts and improved monitoring and forecasting tools. We now have a better understanding of the droughts of the twentieth century including the 1930s "Dust Bowl"; we have developed a broader array of tools and datasets that enhance the official North American Drought Monitor based on different methodologies such as state-of-the-art land surface modeling (e.g., the North American Land Data Assimilation System) and remote sensing (e.g., the evaporative stress index) to better characterize the occurrence and severity of drought in its multiple manifestations. In addition, we have new tools for drought prediction [including the new National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2, for operational prediction and an experimental National Multimodel Ensemble] and have explored diverse methodologies including ensemble hydrologic prediction approaches. Broad NIDIS-inspired progress is influencing the development of a Global Drought Information System (GDIS) under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program. Despite these advances, current drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities still fall short of users' needs, especially the need for skillful and reliable drought forecasts at regional and local scales. To tackle this outstanding challenging problem, focused and coordinated research efforts are needed, drawing from excellence across the broad drought research community. To meet this challenge, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Drought Task Force was established in October 2011 with the ambitious goal of achieving significant new advances in the ability to understand, monitor, and predict drought over North America. The Task Force (duration of October 2011-September 2014) is an initiative of NOAA's Climate Program Office Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program in partnership with NIDIS. It brings together over 30 leading MAPP-funded drought scientists from multiple academic and federal institutions [involves scientists from NOAA's research laboratories and centers, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and many universities] in a concerted research effort that builds on individual MAPP research projects. These projects span the wide spectrum of drought research needed to make fundamental advances, from those aimed at the basic understanding of drought mechanisms to those aimed at testing new drought monitoring and prediction tools for operational and service purposes (as part of NCEP's Climate Test Bed). The Drought Task Force provides focus and coordination to MAPP drought research activities and also facilitates synergies with other national and international drought research efforts, including those by the GDIS.

GDIS↗

Proliferation of maize (Zea mays L.) roots in response to localized supply of nitrate

Maize (Zea mays L.) plants with two primary nodal root axes were grown for 8 d in flowing nutrient culture with each axis independently supplied with NO3-. Dry matter accumulation by roots was similar whether 1.0 mol m-3 NO3- was supplied to one or both axes. When NO3- was supplied to only one axis, however, accumulation of dry matter within the root system was significantly greater in the axis supplied with NO3-. The increased dry matter accumulation by the +N-treated axis was attributable entirely to increased density and growth of lateral branches and not to a difference in growth of the primary axis. Proliferation of lateral branches for the +N axis was associated with the capacity for in situ reduction and utilization of a portion of the absorbed NO3-, especially in the apical region where lateral primordia are initiated. Although reduced nitrogen was translocated to the -N axis, concentrations in the -N axis remained significantly lower than in the +N axis. The concentration of reduced nitrogen, as well as in vitro NO3- reductase activity, was greater in apical than in more basal regions of the +N axis. The enhanced proliferation of lateral branches in the +N axis was accompanied by an increase in total respiration rate of the axis. Part of the increased respiration was attributable to increased mass of roots. The specific respiration rate (micromoles CO2 evolved per hour per gram root dry weight) was also greater for the +N than for the -N axis. If respiration rate is taken as representative of sink demand, stimulation of initiation and growth of laterals by in situ utilization of a localized exogenous supply of NO3- establishes an increased sink demand through enhanced metabolic activity and the increased partitioning of assimilates to the +N axis responds to the difference in sink demand between +N and -N axes.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

Stand Age and Climate Change Effects on Carbon Increments and Stock Dynamics

Carbon assimilation and wood production are influenced by environmental conditions and endogenous factors, such as species auto-ecology, age, and hierarchical position within the forest structure. Disentangling the intricate relationships between those factors is more pressing than ever due to climate change’s pressure. We employed the 3D-CMCC-FEM model to simulate undisturbed forests of different ages under four climate change (plus one no climate change) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios from five Earth system models. In this context, carbon stocks and increment were simulated via total carbon woody stocks and mean annual increment, which depends mainly on climate trends. We find greater differences among different age cohorts under the same scenario than among different climate scenarios under the same age class. Increasing temperature and changes in precipitation patterns led to a decline in above-ground biomass in spruce stands, especially in the older age classes. On the contrary, the results show that beech forests will maintain and even increase C-storage rates under most RCP scenarios. Scots pine forests show an intermediate behavior with a stable stock capacity over time and in different scenarios but with decreasing mean volume annual increment. These results confirm current observations worldwide that indicate a stronger climate-related decline in conifers forests than in broadleaves.

Forestry↗

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗

Genomewide and Enzymatic Analysis Reveals Efficient D-Galacturonic Acid Metabolism in the Basidiomycete Yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides

Biorefining of renewable feedstocks is one of the most promising routes to replace fossil-based products. Since many common fermentation hosts, such as Saccharomyces cerevisiae , are naturally unable to convert many component plant cell wall polysaccharides, the identification of organisms with broad catabolism capabilities represents an opportunity to expand the range of substrates used in fermentation biorefinery approaches. The red basidiomycete yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides is a promising and robust host for lipid- and terpene-derived chemicals. Previous studies demonstrated assimilation of a range of substrates, from C 5 /C 6 sugars to aromatic molecules similar to lignin monomers. In the current study, we analyzed the potential of R. toruloides to assimilate d -galacturonic acid, a major sugar in many pectin-rich agricultural waste streams, including sugar beet pulp and citrus peels. d -Galacturonic acid is not a preferred substrate for many fungi, but its metabolism was found to be on par with those of d -glucose and d -xylose in R. toruloides . A genomewide analysis by combined transcriptome sequencing (RNA-seq) and RB-TDNA-seq revealed those genes with high relevance for fitness on d -galacturonic acid. While R. toruloides was found to utilize the nonphosphorylative catabolic pathway known from ascomycetes, the maximal velocities of several enzymes exceeded those previously reported. In addition, an efficient downstream glycerol catabolism and a novel transcription factor were found to be important for d -galacturonic acid utilization. These results set the basis for use of R. toruloides as a potential host for pectin-rich waste conversions and demonstrate its suitability as a model for metabolic studies with basidiomycetes. The switch from the traditional fossil-based industry to a green and sustainable bioeconomy demands the complete utilization of renewable feedstocks. Many currently used bioconversion hosts are unable to utilize major components of plant biomass, warranting the identification of microorganisms with broader catabolic capacity and characterization of their unique biochemical pathways. d -Galacturonic acid is a plant component of bioconversion interest and is the major backbone sugar of pectin, a plant cell wall polysaccharide abundant in soft and young plant tissues. The red basidiomycete and oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides has been previously shown to utilize a range of sugars and aromatic molecules. Using state-of-the-art functional genomic methods and physiological and biochemical assays, we elucidated the molecular basis underlying the efficient metabolism of d -galacturonic acid. This study identified an efficient pathway for uronic acid conversion to guide future engineering efforts and represents the first detailed metabolic analysis of pectin metabolism in a basidiomycete fungus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Making Intercontinental Burning Influences Quantitative: Lessons on Transport and Geochemistry From the 3-D Simulation of CO in PEM-T A and TRACE-A

We report on two aspects of the simulation of global transport of plumes originating from subtropical biomass fires. We use of meteorological assimilation (MM5) at 2-degree resolution with a Grail cloud parameterization and a Blackadar-based planetary boundary layer parameterization. Ames's GRACES model provides emissions, transport, and an appropriate level of simulated chemical transformation. We have worked with passive-tracer CO or linear chemistry. This is appropriate since we find major work to be done in evaluating CO source strengths and transport mechanisms before chemical integrations could be meaningful. First, we present mechanisms by which CO and other pollutants are introduced into the free troposphere, and are then transported with hate dilution from approx. 0 to approx. 180 degrees longitude. One principal conduit for these plumes is the vernal subtropical jet; however the plumes appear at various altitudes and latitudes as they influenced by frontal motions and (most likely) radiative processes. A common, repeated pattern of transport has pollutant plumes arriving in the distant Pacific Ocean from Africa and South America at 25 degrees south and 14 km altitude. Following this, there is then a general appearance of pollution at extending down to 5 kin at more equatorial (10 S) and polar latitudes (to 45 S). Second, we evaluate the quantitative success of our simulation. (Such success requires efforts considerably beyond trajectory analyses, and is necessary for our community to claim an understanding of the effects of biomass burning on global atmospheric chemistry and the planet's trend in oxidizing capacity.) We find that we simulate most pollution episodes sampled by Glenn Sachse's CO instrument and the Blake hydrocarbon analyses during PENT A. We will present our current ideas on why our general levels appear satisfactory when the observations are within 20 ppb of background levels, but substantially miss the variability associated with the most intense biomass burning plumes. As time allows, we will speculate on the origins of a class of plumes that appear in the mid-troposphere, but are missing from our simulations.

Chatfield, Robert↗

Stomatal conductance, not biochemistry, drives low temperature acclimation of photosynthesis in Populus balsamifera , regardless of nitrogen availability

Low temperature thermal acclimation may require adjustments to nitrogen and water use to sustain photosynthesis due to slow enzyme functioning and high-water viscosity. However, understanding of photosynthetic acclimation to temperatures below 11°C is limited. Here, we acclimated Populus balsamifera to 6 °C and 10 °C (6A and 10A, respectively) and provided the trees with either high or low N fertilizer. We measured net CO 2 assimilation rates (A net ), stomatal conductance (g s ), maximum rates of Rubisco carboxylation (V cmax ) and electron transport (J max ), and dark respiration (R d ) at leaf temperatures of 2, 6, 10, 14 and 18 °C, along with leaf N concentrations. The 10A trees had higher A net than the 6A trees at warmer leaf temperatures, which was correlated with higher g s in the 10A trees. The instantaneous temperature responses of V cmax , J max and R d were similar for trees from both acclimation temperatures. While soil N availability increased leaf N concentrations, this had no effect on acclimation of photosynthesis or respiration. Our results indicate that acclimation below 11°C occurred primarily through changes in stomatal conductance, not photosynthetic biochemistry, and was unaffected by short-term N supply. Thermal acclimation of stomatal conductance should therefore be a priority for future carbon cycle model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reduced viscosity steadily weakens oceanic currents

The viscosity of both air and water is temperature dependent. A rising temperature leads to an increased viscosity for air but a decreased viscosity for water. As climate becomes warmer, this increased air viscosity can partly inhibit the reduction of wind stress over the ocean, and the reduced water viscosity causes less downward momentum and heat transport. As these opposing effects of warming on air and water viscosity are not included in the state-of-the-art climate models, the understanding of their potential impacts on the response of the climate system to the anthropogenic warming is lacking. Here, via analyzing the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation oceanic reanalysis dataset, we show that the ocean heat content increases at a rate of ~1.3 × 10 22 J/yr over 35 years, which leads to a continuous reduction of oceanic viscosity. As a result, the ocean vertical shear enhances with a shoaling of the mixed layer depth and a reduced vertical linkage in the ocean. Our calculations show a reduction of the oceanic kinetic energy at a rate of ~2.4 × 10 16 J/yr. Potentially, this could generate far-reaching impacts on the energy storage of the climate system and, hence, could pace the global warming. Thus, it is important to include the temperature-dependent viscosity in our climate models. Freshwater discharged from polar ice sheets and mountain glaciers also contributes to the reduction in oceanic viscosity but, at present, to a lesser extent than that in oceanic warming. Reduced oceanic viscosity, therefore, is an important, but hitherto overlooked, response to a warming climate and contributes to many recent weather extremes including heavier rainfall rates in hurricanes, slackening of the polar vortex, and oceanic heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗