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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2006

Fission Surface Power for the Exploration and Colonization of Mars

The colonization of Mars will require abundant energy. One potential energy source is nuclear fission. Terrestrial fission systems are highly developed and have the demonstrated ability to safely produce tremendous amounts of energy. In space, fission systems not only have the potential to safely generate tremendous amounts of energy, but could also potentially be used on missions where alternatives are not practical. Programmatic risks such as cost and schedule are potential concerns with fission surface power (FSP) systems. To be mission enabling, FSP systems must be affordable and programmatic risk must be kept acceptably low to avoid jeopardizing exploration efforts that may rely on FSP. Initial FSP systems on Mars could be "workhorse" units sized to enable the establishment of a Mars base and the early growth of a colony. These systems could be nearly identical to FSP systems used on the moon. The systems could be designed to be safe, reliable, and have low development and recurring costs. Systems could also be designed to fit on relatively small landers. One potential option for an early Mars FSP system would be a 100 kWt class, NaK cooled system analogous to space reactors developed and flown under the U.S. "SNAP" program or those developed and flown by the former Soviet Union ("BUK" reactor). The systems could use highly developed fuel and materials. Water and Martian soil could be used to provide shielding. A modern, high-efficiency power conversion subsystem could be used to reduce required reactor thermal power. This, in turn, would reduce fuel burnup and radiation damage .effects by reducing "nuclear" fuels and materials development costs. A realistic, non-nuclear heated and fully integrated technology demonstration unit (TDU) could be used to reduce cost and programmatic uncertainties prior to initiating a flight program.

Houts, Mike↗

NASA NTRS2009

A Single Conjunction Risk Assessment Metric: the F-Value

The Conjunction Assessment Team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center provides conjunction risk assessment for many NASA robotic missions. These risk assessments are based on several figures of merit, such as miss distance, probability of collision, and orbit determination solution quality. However, these individual metrics do not singly capture the overall risk associated with a conjunction, making it difficult for someone without this complete understanding to take action, such as an avoidance maneuver. The goal of this analysis is to introduce a single risk index metric that can easily convey the level of risk without all of the technical details. The proposed index is called the conjunction "F-value." This paper presents the concept of the F-value and the tuning of the metric for use in routine Conjunction Assessment operations.

Frigm, Ryan Clayton↗

NASA NTRS2006

Notional Airspace Operations Demonstration Plan

The airspace operations demonstration (AOD) is intended to show that the Access 5 Step 1 functional requirements can be met. The demonstration will occur in two phases. The initial on-range phase will be carried out in restricted airspace to demonstrate the cooperative collision avoidance (CCA) functional requirements and to provide risk-reduction for the AOD by allowing the test team to rehearse some elements of the demonstration mission. The CCA system to be used in these flights is based on Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) which is a commercially-available system by which airplanes constantly broadcast their current position and altitude to other aircraft and ground resources over a dedicated radio datalink. The final phase will occur in the national airspace (NAS) and will be the formal demonstration of the remainder of the proposed functional requirements. The general objectives of the AOD are as follows: (1) Demonstrate that the UAS can aviate in the NAS (2) Demonstrate that the UAS can navigate in the NAS (3) Demonstrate that the UAS can communicate with the NAS (4) Demonstrate that the UAS can perform selected collision avoidance functions in the NAS (5) Demonstrate that the UAS can evaluate and avoid weather conflicts in the NAS (6) Demonstrate that the UAS can provide adequate command and control in the NAS In addition to the stated objectives, there are a number of goals for the flight demonstration. The demo can be accomplished successfully without achieving these goals, but these goals are to be used as a guideline for preparing for the mission. The goals are: (1) Mission duration of at least 24 hours (2) Loiter over heavy traffic to evaluate the data block issue identified during the Access 5 Airspace Operations Simulations (3) Document the contingency management process and lessons learned (4) Document the coordination process for Ground Control Stations (GCS) handoff (5) Document lessons learned regarding the process of flying in the NAS Preliminary planning for a notional mission to achieve the objectives and goals has been prepared. The planning is intended to serve as a guide for detailed planning of the AOD.

Trongale, Nicholas A.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.

Vouk, Mladen A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Progress on Intelligent Guidance and Control for Wind Shear Encounter

Low altitude wind shear poses a serious threat to air safety. Avoiding severe wind shear challenges the ability of flight crews, as it involves assessing risk from uncertain evidence. A computerized intelligent cockpit aid can increase flight crew awareness of wind shear, improving avoidance decisions. The primary functions of a cockpit advisory expert system for wind shear avoidance are discussed. Also introduced are computational techniques being implemented to enable these primary functions.

Stratton, D. Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2010

Accelerated Monte Carlo Simulation for Safety Analysis of the Advanced Airspace Concept

Safe separation of aircraft is a primary objective of any air traffic control system. An accelerated Monte Carlo approach was developed to assess the level of safety provided by a proposed next-generation air traffic control system. It combines features of fault tree and standard Monte Carlo methods. It runs more than one order of magnitude faster than the standard Monte Carlo method while providing risk estimates that only differ by about 10%. It also preserves component-level model fidelity that is difficult to maintain using the standard fault tree method. This balance of speed and fidelity allows sensitivity analysis to be completed in days instead of weeks or months with the standard Monte Carlo method. Results indicate that risk estimates are sensitive to transponder, pilot visual avoidance, and conflict detection failure probabilities.

Thipphavong, David↗

NASA NTRS1990

Evaluation of off-road terrain with static stereo and monoscopic displays

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration is currently funding research into the design of a Mars rover vehicle. This unmanned rover will be used to explore a number of scientific and geologic sites on the Martian surface. Since the rover can not be driven from Earth in real-time, due to lengthy communication time delays, a locomotion strategy that optimizes vehicle range and minimizes potential risk must be developed. In order to assess the degree of on-board artificial intelligence (AI) required for a rover to carry out its' mission, researchers conducted an experiment to define a no AI baseline. In the experiment 24 subjects, divided into stereo and monoscopic groups, were shown video snapshots of four terrain scenes. The subjects' task was to choose a suitable path for the vehicle through each of the four scenes. Paths were scored based on distance travelled and hazard avoidance. Study results are presented with respect to: (1) risk versus range; (2) stereo versus monocular video; (3) vehicle camera height; and (4) camera field-of-view.

Yorchak, John P.↗

NASA NTRS2016

A Structured, Model-Based Systems Engineering Methodology for Operations System Design

Two widely accepted techniques for lowering the cost and risk of developing systems are (1) the use of a defined systems engineering (SE) process or methodology and (2) the reuse of existing (previously built) system components. The first technique is represented, for example, in materials published by NASA (e.g., NASA Systems Engineering Handbook) or by professional societies such as INCOSE (International Council on Systems Engineering). Well-formed SE techniques provide value by establishing the proper scope of the system (e.g., requirements), and by identifying and resolving problems relatively early in project lifecycles, when fixes are less expensive. The second technique (reuse) is applied most commonly to hardware and software; it seeks to avoid replicating design and implementation costs while also reducing risk by placing proven capabilities into operational use. In this paper, we outline a methodology combining these two techniques and extending reuse beyond hardware and software to foundational aspects of a Mission Operation System’s (MOS) design. We describe the system design artifacts that result (e.g., requirements, design documentation), as well as the reusable patterns and elements of the design, and their interrelationships. This approach is enabled by model-based systems engineering (MBSE) techniques and tools and is currently available in SysML form as a plug-in to MagicDraw. Additionally, usage of a rigorous MBSE approach allows for training materials and tutorials to be packaged within the overall model itself. The results of such an approach include decreased cost and risk during the design phase, improved ability of the MOS development team to investigate trade spaces and identify impacts to important flight-ground trade studies. Such results extend into decreased costs and risk in later phases due to improved design, decreased need for late fixes or development of "glue-ware" or scripts to fill unanticipated gaps in functionality, and improved ability to identify and plan testing and other validation activities. Finally, lower operational costs can be expected, both due to improved quality of the MOS, increased ease of maintaining updated knowledge of system configuration, and the fact that training and procedural materials are also updated at the same time as accepted system changes.

Bindschadler, Duane L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

There is strong evidence climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, and drought metrics being considered. We analyze changes in drought across the hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff) in projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multi‐model ensemble shows robust drying in the mean state across many regions and metrics by the end of the 21st century, even following the more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP2‐4.5). Regional hotspots with strong drying include western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, the Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, and Australia. Compared to SSP3‐7.0 and SSP5‐8.5, however, the severity of drying in the lower warming scenarios is substantially reduced and further precipitation declines in many regions are avoided. Along with drying in the mean state, the risk of the historically most extreme drought events also increases with warming, by 200–300% in some regions. Soil moisture and runoff drying in CMIP6 is more robust, spatially extensive, and severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature‐sensitive drought processes, including evapotranspiration and snow. Given the similarity in drought responses between CMIP5 and CMIP6, we speculate both generations of models are subject to similar uncertainties, including vegetation processes, model representations of precipitation, and the degree to which model responses to warming are consistent with observations. These topics should be further explored to evaluate whether CMIP6 models offer reasons to have increased confidence in drought projections.

drought↗

NASA NTRS2000

System Risk Balancing Profiles: Software Component

The Software QA / V&V guide will be reviewed and updated based on feedback from NASA organizations and others with a vested interest in this area. Hardware, EEE Parts, Reliability, and Systems Safety are a sample of the future guides that will be developed. Cost Estimates, Lessons Learned, Probability of Failure and PACTS (Prevention, Avoidance, Control or Test) are needed to provide a more complete risk management strategy. This approach to risk management is designed to help balance the resources and program content for risk reduction for NASA's changing environment.

Kelly, John C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a model that estimates the risk of obstructive coronary artery disease in patients undergoing operations for mitral valve degeneration and to demonstrate its potential clinical utility. METHODS: A total of 722 patients (67% men; age, 61 +/- 12 years) without a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic electrocardiographic changes, or angina who underwent routine coronary angiography before mitral valve prolapse operations between 1989 and 1996 were analyzed. A bootstrap-validated logistic regression model on the basis of clinical risk factors was developed to identify low-risk (< or =5%) patients. Obstructive coronary atherosclerosis was defined as 50% or more luminal narrowing in one or more major epicardial vessels, as determined by means of coronary angiography. RESULTS: One hundred thirty-nine (19%) patients had obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. Independent predictors of coronary artery disease include age, male sex, hypertension, diabetes mellitus,and hyperlipidemia. Two hundred twenty patients were designated as low risk according to the logistic model. Of these patients, only 3 (1.3%) had single-vessel disease, and none had multivessel disease. The model showed good discrimination, with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.84. Cost analysis indicated that application of this model could safely eliminate 30% of coronary angiograms, corresponding to cost savings of $430,000 per 1000 patients without missing any case of high-risk coronary artery disease. CONCLUSION: A model with standard clinical predictors can reliably estimate the prevalence of obstructive coronary atherosclerosis in patients undergoing mitral valve prolapse operations. This model can identify low-risk patients in whom routine preoperative angiography may be safely avoided.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua and Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

This presentation will describe recent EOS Aqua and Aura operational collision avoidance experience during periods of solar and geomagnetic storm activity. It will highlight challenges faced by the operations team during short-notice, high-risk predicted close approaches. The presentation will highlight the evolution of the operational collision avoidance process for the EOS Aqua and Aura missions. The presentation will highlight operational challenges that have occurred, process improvements that have been implemented and identify potential future challenges.

Guit, Bill↗

NASA NTRS2017

Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua & Aura Space Weather Effects on Operational Collision Avoidance

Operational collision avoidance↗

NASA NTRS2001

Re-Entry Survivability Risk Assessment of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE)

A reentry analysis of the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE) spacecraft was performed using the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool (ORSAT) - Version 5.0. The analysis was done in response to a request by NASA Headquarters and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) after a preliminary assessment using the NASA Johnson Space Center Debris Assessment Software (DAS) - Version 1.0 had shown that the EUVE reentry may produce a debris area greater than the limit set within the NASA Safety Standard 1740.14 guidelines. DAS predicted that an uncontrolled reentry of the EUVE spacecraft would result in a total casualty area of 12.41 sq m, which exceeds the 8 sq m limit set in the NASA standards and implies a potential human casualty risk of approximately 1 in 5300. The ORSAT model enabled a higher fidelity thermal analysis of the EUVE spacecraft, utilizing sophisticated material and thermal properties such as emissivity, heat of oxidation, thermal conductivity, and material thickness inputs, which provided a foundation for a more in depth analysis of the reentering objects. Due to the conservative nature of the DAS study, it was reasonable to run ORSAT for only the ten objects shown to survive in the original DAS analysis. The result of the ORSAT study was a reduced casualty area of only 5.95 sq m, well within NASA safety limits. With the risk to human life now acceptably low, NASA can avoid having to take mitigation measures and allow EUVE to reenter the Earth's atmosphere uncontrolled.

O'Hara, Robin E.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Considerations When Building Thermal Models that Require Conversion Between Formats

At times, it is inevitable to require conversion of thermal models from one software format to another. This most often occurs for missions with international partners where not all parties utilize the same software packages for thermal analysis. Mandating a single tool for all parties is one possible solution, but this approach can introduce problems if significant effort is required to overcome inexperience with the designated tool and may result in difficulty meeting analysis schedule requirements. Alternatively, allowing all parties to use their own familiar tools minimizes the impact to analysis schedules but does introduce the need to convert the models later to a common format for analysis at a higher level of assembly. External conversion tools and formats have been developed through the years to aid in this process, but have had limited success in fully converting models seamlessly. Having a basic familiarity with tool capabilities on both sides of the conversion process allows for models to be built in a manner to better facilitate conversion by avoiding features and capabilities which are unsupported by the destination tool or for which no workarounds exist. Also, the effort to convert a model is often neglected when developing the schedules for analysis at the higher assembly levels; delivery of models preconditioned for convertibility minimizes the schedule risk. This paper seeks to provide some guidance on modeling techniques to avoid when developing Geometrical Math Models (GMM) and Thermal Math Models (TMM) when conversion is required. The recommendations are based on GMM conversion experiences between TSS/ThermalDesktop/ESARAD and TMM conversions between SINDA-FLUINT/ESATAN.

Modeling↗

NASA NTRS2018

Establishing and Monitoring an Aseptic Workspace

When are aseptic operations necessary? In order to meet certain bioburden requirements, some components must undergo dry heat microbial reduction (DHMR) or other sterilizing procedures. If sensitive surfaces must be re-exposed after DHMR, this could compromise the bioburden levels. Recontaminating sterilized surfaces could be costly both in time by requiring repeated DHMR and risk to the hardware, which may not be compatible with repeated high temperature bakes. In order to prevent recontamination of the sensitive surfaces, an aseptic environment and sterile technique must be employed. Aseptic environments mean working in a space with almost no detectable bioburden in the air or on surfaces. Ideally, DHMR happens as late as possible to avoid requiring aseptic operations, as it can be considered a high-risk operations. Preparing the cleanroom for aseptic operations Establishing an ISO (International Organization for Standardization) class 5 space to minimize airborne particles. Maintain low bioburden in the cleanroom by using biocidal cleaners. Using multiple biocidal techniques decreases the likelihood of selecting for resistant microorganisms. 70% Isopropyl Alcohol (IPA) denatures the proteins in a microorganism (note: 70% IPA is better at killing microorganisms than 100% IPA) 7% hydrogen peroxide: damages DNA and proteins through oxygen radical damage. Ultraviolet-C (UV-C) lamps: causes crosslinking in DNA which prevents replication. Monitor cleanroom regularly for bioburden trending: Standard bioassay: Swab or wipe samples of cleanroom surfaces processed for colony forming unity (viable or spore selected); Rapid bioassay: Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) or Limulus amebocyte lysate (LAL) for a bioburden snapshot. High levels can signal an immediate re-cleaning before standard bioassay samples are taken. Airborne monitoring: Active (pulling air through a filter) or passive (particle fallout) for bioburden. Verify bioburden levels just before aseptic operation. Test hardware and cleanroom surfaces and air 3 days before the planned aseptic operation. Rapid bioburden just before aseptic operation to ensure room was not re-contaminated. Preparing personnel and tools: Personnel training. Everyone in the cleanroom: Standard cleanroom certification Everyone on the team: 1 day Planetary Protection overview. Aseptic operators only: Half-day aseptic operations training. Covers sterile garmenting/gloves, Sterile handling with a focus on contact transfer risk, tool/GSE preparation, and two-operator system for opening sterilized tools/components. Tool sterilization: All tools to be used during an aseptic operation need to be identified. Compatible tools are sterilized by DHMR or Autoclave. Double wrapped so that the exterior bag can be handled by a non-sterile operator, and the sterile. Tools that are not compatible with high heat do not come in contact with sensitive surfaces: either substitutes are found, or tools are isolated by wrapping in sterile foil. During an aseptic operation. Pre-task to make sure everyone understands the operations, who is handling what, and when the most critical surfaces will be exposed. Monitoring during the operation. Bioburden: active and passive airborne bioburden sampling, glove-tip dabs onto a plate after completion of operation (3 days for results). Particles: real time particle counter constantly running, with alarm for exceeding ISO 5 conditions.

aseptic processing↗

NASA NTRS1995

MSAT PIM and multipactor test program

The MSAT satellite system will provide telephone, fax and low data rate communication services to mobile users throughout North America. The space segment of the MSAT system must supply high radiated power densities on the ground to allow communication with small mobile terminals. Therefore, the high power handling requirement (multipactor, PIM and thermal dissipation) are very important performance parameters for mobile satellite communication systems. Large separate transmit and receive L-Band deployable reflectors are used on MSAT to reduce the risk of PIM (passive intermodulation). In addition, PIM and multipactor avoidance were major design drivers for the L-Band high power transmit output network and antenna. This paper provides an overview of the designs selected and the extensive qualification and verification program undertaken on MSAT to meet the challenging PIM and multipactor requirements. The test campaigns at component, sub-system and system levels and the associated test results are presented. The manufacturing and assembly approaches taken to allow the PIM and Multipactor to be met are also briefly described.

Patenaude, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Fuel-Efficient Descent and Landing Guidance Logic for a Safe Lunar Touchdown

The landing of a crewed lunar lander on the surface of the Moon will be the climax of any Moon mission. At touchdown, the landing mechanism must absorb the load imparted on the lander due to the vertical component of the lander's touchdown velocity. Also, a large horizontal velocity must be avoided because it could cause the lander to tip over, risking the life of the crew. To be conservative, the worst-case lander's touchdown velocity is always assumed in designing the landing mechanism, making it very heavy. Fuel-optimal guidance algorithms for soft planetary landing have been studied extensively. In most of these studies, the lander is constrained to touchdown with zero velocity. With bounds imposed on the magnitude of the engine thrust, the optimal control solutions typically have a "bang-bang" thrust profile: the thrust magnitude "bangs" instantaneously between its maximum and minimum magnitudes. But the descent engine might not be able to throttle between its extremes instantaneously. There is also a concern about the acceptability of "bang-bang" control to the crew. In our study, the optimal control of a lander is formulated with a cost function that penalizes both the touchdown velocity and the fuel cost of the descent engine. In this formulation, there is not a requirement to achieve a zero touchdown velocity. Only a touchdown velocity that is consistent with the capability of the landing gear design is required. Also, since the nominal throttle level for the terminal descent sub-phase is well below the peak engine thrust, no bound on the engine thrust is used in our formulated problem. Instead of bangbang type solution, the optimal thrust generated is a continuous function of time. With this formulation, we can easily derive analytical expressions for the optimal thrust vector, touchdown velocity components, and other system variables. These expressions provide insights into the "physics" of the optimal landing and terminal descent maneuver. These insights could help engineers to achieve a better "balance" between the conflicting needs of achieving a safe touchdown velocity, a low-weight landing mechanism, low engine fuel cost, and other design goals. In comparing the computed optimal control results with the preflight landing trajectory design of the Apollo-11 mission, we noted interesting similarities between the two missions.

guidance logic↗