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At least 109 records · Page 6

The Annual Assessment Reporting Process

On 11 August 1995, President Clinton announced that the United States intended to enter negotiations on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. To address concerns that the cessation of nuclear testing would introduce uncertainty about the efficacy of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, he also announced the concurrent establishment of six Safeguards as conditions of entry. Safeguard A prescribed “. . . a Science Based Stockpile Stewardship program to ensure a high level of confidence in the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons in the active stockpile.” Safeguard B required “The maintenance of modern nuclear laboratory facilities and programs in theoretical and exploratory nuclear technology which will attract, retain, and ensure . . . human scientific resources.” These two Safeguards led to the establishment of the physical and intellectual capabilities to sustain the Nation’s nuclear deterrent without nuclear testing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Applying Waveform Correlation to Mining Blasts Using a Global Sparse Network

Agencies that monitor for underground nuclear tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. We report the results of an experiment that uses waveform templates recorded by multiple International Monitoring System stations of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization for up to 10 years prior to the time period of interest to detect and identify mining blasts that occur during single weeks of study. We discuss approaches for template selection, threshold setting, and event detection that are specialized for mining blasts and a sparse, global network. We apply the approaches to two different weeks of study for each of two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia, to evaluate the potential for establishing a set of standards for waveform correlation processing of mining blasts that can be effective for operational monitoring systems with a sparse network. We compare candidate events detected with our processing methods to the Reviewed Event Bulletin of the International Data Centre to develop an intuition about potential reduction in analyst workload.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Thinking the Other Unthinkable: Disarmament in North Korea and Beyond

The P5 have defined nuclear disarmament as both a process and an end state. Differences of view about the latter are sharp, bitter, and abiding. This has stripped the discussion about the former of much of its potential content and value. Where might we get, practically and conceptually, if we were to set aside for now questions about the ultimate feasibility and desirability of the long-term goal and focus instead on the process? Further, what if we were also to posit that there will be no “fundamental transformation” of the international political system of a kind that would make the nuclear-armed states, and their unarmed neighbors, unconcerned about the effectiveness of mechanisms for peace and security in a disarmed and disarming world? In this context, might it be possible to give states the confidence they would require to take more ambitious incremental steps on the disarmament pathway? How could such steps contribute to the relaxation of international tensions that the NPT itself describes as a critical enabler of disarmament? These questions motivate this timely and innovative new work by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Their core objective is to “infuse needed realism into disarmament discussions.” Using North Korean disarmament as a test case, they explore a series of practical challenges and associated conceptual issues to frame a discussion of the possible disarming nucleararmed states. They begin by rightly noting that neither the advocates of the Ban treaty nor the advocates of North Korean disarmament have set our practical agendas for achieving their aims. They conclude that without an infusion of realism the “two polarized blocks” will continue to “stonewall and repel each other” and thus that “the risks of global nuclear disorder will grow.” This is the latest in the series of Livermore Papers begun in 2017 to stimulate the development of new strategic thought on emerging nuclear challenges. Conceptually, it is a follow-on to the inaugural Livermore Paper by Lewis Dunn on disarmament pathways. The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory or any of its sponsors.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Safeguards by Design Projects (FY2020 Final Report)

This University Engagement project challenged engineering students at universities, that do not have Bachelor degrees in nuclear engineering but do have research reactors and some nuclear engineering coursework, to incorporate Safeguards by Design concepts into their Senior Capstone Design Project. This University Engagement project was part of the U. S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), Office of Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation, Office of International Nuclear Safeguards, Next Generation Safeguards Initiative, Human Capital Development: University Engagement Program. This program exposed university students with Mechanical Engineering majors and Nuclear Engineering minors to the concepts of international nuclear safeguards. FY20, three teams at the University of Rhode Island and one team at the University of Texas - Austin participated in researching, designing, building, and testing projects to support international nuclear safeguards measurements or verification. The projects involved engaging in activities at the university’s research reactors. All the projects engaged students with prototyping a design and/or tool for application at the Universities’ reactor. At the end of the course, most of the students expressed the experience was a positive and they learned more about international nuclear safeguards and applying requirements than they had previously encountered. This school year the projects were further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Both universities cancelled in class room classes, and limited direct student/professor interactions. Furthermore, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) greatly restricted travel, therefore making it impossible to visit the students at the end of the semester for the review of their design projects. The final design and review meeting for the projects happened via the internet. Additionally, while the teams planned to build prototypes this did not happen since there was a social distancing ban on students meeting in person.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY2020 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time-separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Xenon Abatement Simulations to Support the KAERI Medical Isotope Facility

To maintain and improve the verification regime that is outlined by the Preparatory Commission of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty there is a need to understand and reduce the radioxenon releases from medical isotope production facilities. In support of this objective Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) was tasked with, modeling and evaluate the abatement process and delay bed designs for the medical isotope production facility under construction by the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). This report includes this analysis and provides PNNL proposed modifications to the KAERI adsorption bed design.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A Projected Network Model of Online Disinformation Cascades

Within the past half-decade, it has become overwhelmingly clear that suppressing the spread of deliberate false and misleading information is of the utmost importance for protecting democratic institutions. Disinformation has been found to come from both foreign and domestic actors, but the effects from either can be disastrous. From the simple encouragement of unwarranted distrust to conspiracy theories promoting violence, the results of disinformation have put the functionality of American democracy under direct threat. Present scientific challenges posed by this problem include detecting disinformation, quantifying its potential impact, and preventing its amplification. We present a model on which we can experiment with possible strategies toward the third challenge: the prevention of amplification. This is a social contagion network model, which is decomposed into layers to represent physical, ''offline'', interactions as well as virtual interactions on a social media platform. Along with the topological modifications to the standard contagion model, we use state-transition rules designed specifically for disinformation, and distinguish between contagious and non-contagious infected nodes. We use this framework to explore the effect of grassroots social movements on the size of disinformation cascades by simulating these cascades in scenarios where a proportion of the agents remove themselves from the social platform. We also test the efficacy of strategies that could be implemented at the administrative level by the online platform to minimize such spread. These top-down strategies include banning agents who disseminate false information, or providing corrective information to individuals exposed to false information to decrease their probability of believing it. We find an abrupt transition to smaller cascades when a critical number of random agents are removed from the platform, as well as steady decreases in the size of cascades with increasingly more convincing corrective information. Finally, we compare simulated cascades on this framework with real cascades of disinformation recorded on Whatsapp surrounding the 2019 Indian election. We find a set of hyperparameter values that produces a distribution of cascades matching the scaling exponent of the distribution of actual cascades recorded in the dataset. We acknowledge the available future directions for improving the performance of the framework and validation methods, as well as ways to extend the model to capture additional features of social contagion.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Aftershocks in the Middle East to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize recurring events such as aftershocks to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high-quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is a technique that is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events. In this study, we apply waveform correlation in combination with template event metadata to two aftershock sequences in the Middle East to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We use waveform templates from stations that are within regional distance of aftershock sequences to detect subsequent events, then use template event metadata to discover what stations are likely to record corroborating arrival waveforms for recurring aftershock events at the same location, and develop additional waveform templates to seek corroborating detections. We evaluate the results with the goal of determining whether applying the method to aftershock events will improve the choice of waveform correlation detections that lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Applying Waveform Correlation and Waveform Template Metadata to Mining Blasts to Reduce Analyst Workload

Organizations that monitor for underground nuclear explosive tests are interested in techniques that automatically characterize mining blasts to reduce the human analyst effort required to produce high - quality event bulletins. Waveform correlation is effective in finding similar waveforms from repeating seismic events, including mining blasts. In this study we use waveform template event metadata to seek corroborating detections from multiple stations in the International Monitoring System of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization. We build upon events detected in a prior waveform correlation study of mining blasts in two geographic regions, Wyoming and Scandinavia. Using a set of expert analyst-reviewed waveform correlation events that were declared to be true positive detections, we explore criteria for choosing the waveform correlation detections that are most likely to lead to bulletin-worthy events and reduction of analyst effort.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

2022 MB3a Infrasound Sensor Type Approval Evaluation

Sandia National Laboratories has tested and evaluated an updated version of the MB3a infrasound sensor, designed by CEA and manufactured by SeismoWave. The purpose of this infrasound sensor evaluation is to measure the performance characteristics in such areas as power consumption, sensitivity, full scale, self-noise, dynamic range, response, passband, sensitivity variation due to changes in barometric pressure and temperature, and sensitivity to acceleration. The MB3a infrasound sensors are being evaluated for use in the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Preparatory Commission to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

2022 Chaparral 64S Infrasound Sensor Type Approval Evaluation

Sandia National Laboratories has tested and evaluated a new version of the Chaparral 64S infrasound sensor, designed and manufactured by Chaparral Physics. The purpose of this infrasound sensor evaluation is to measure the performance characteristics in such areas as power consumption, sensitivity, full scale, self-noise, dynamic range, response, passband, sensitivity variation due to changes in barometric pressure and temperature, and sensitivity to acceleration. The Chaparral 64S infrasound sensors are being evaluated for use in the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Preparatory Commission to the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Metal Items from TA 53, Set 20

EPC-ES has evaluated the survey results for metal items from the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) and found that the metal items described in Table 1 of this report (identified by RP Tracking Numbers) meet the criteria for unrestricted release under DOE Order 458.1 Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment (DOE 2020) and can be recycled. This conclusion is based on the known history of the metal items and on radiation survey data (see the completed RP-Form-031 LANSCE Metals Clearance Log for each item). None of the items in this report are located within radiological areas. Therefore, the items are considered unencumbered and are not subject to the moratorium suspension on metal recycling from Department of Energy facilities. Additionally, LANL has determined that there is no practical opportunity for internal DOE reuse or recycling of this metal. Process knowledge indicates that these metal items were unlikely to ever be in direct contact with the beam and thus are unlikely to have become activated. Surface contamination measurements (both total and removable) showed either no detectable radioactivity or activity levels within the range of background. All measurements for volumetric contamination were indistinguishable from background based on calculated decision limits. Additionally, all gamma isotopic surveys conducted for defense-in-depth showed no identifiable gamma radiation from beam activation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Summary of NDC Capacity Building Workshop and Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) in combination with Data Sharing and Integration Training

The NNSA Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP) sponsored Stephen Myers (LLNL), Michael Begnaud (LANL), Brian Young (SNL) and Istvan Bondar (Research Center for Astronomy and Earth Sciences, Hungary) to serve as a presenters/trainers at the “NDC Capacity Building Workshop and Regional Seismic Travel Time (RSTT) in combination with Data Sharing and Integration Training” September 4-8 2022 in Muscat, Oman (See Appendix A for the agenda). The workshop and training (workshop from here forward) was organized by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) Provisional Technical Secretariat (PTS). The first half of the week was devoted to NDC workshop activities, and the second half was devoted to RSTT training. Fifty-five participants from 27 countries and the CTBTO-PTS attended the 5-day workshop (See Appendix B for list of participants and countries of origin). Presentations from the PTS described the International Monitoring System (IMS), International Data Centre (IDC) products, and metrics of regional data utilization. Contributed presentations from each country’s scientists included descriptions of regional and national networks, methods of data analysis, and needs for material and technical assistance. Training included an overview of the RSTT method and instruction on how to locate seismic events with the iLoc program, which utilizes RSTT travel times to reduce bias in event location estimates. Methods of seismic tomography and the need for a high-quality tomographic set, including seismological “ground truth”, were emphasized. Seismological “ground truth” or “GT” is a term that has come to mean both events with known location and events with well-characterized locations that are estimated using seismological data, typically with epicenter accuracy of 5 km or better. Notably, the instructional platform has migrated from UNIX shell scripts to Jupyter Notebooks. Jupyter Notebooks have the advantage being more visually intuitive, including display of graphics within the notebook. Each notebook includes every processing step that participants need to reproduce the entire exercise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Experimental Science Plan

The Low-Yield Nuclear Monitoring (LYNM) Program is a long-term NNSA research and development effort designed to improve the United States’ explosion monitoring capabilities, particularly with respect to low-yield and potentially evasive underground nuclear testing. The LYNM Program focuses on researching, discovering, and exploiting unique and useful signatures, from all available technologies and sensors (e.g., seismic, acoustic, electromagnetic, gases, and particulates (both stable and radioactive)). Four Department of Energy laboratories participate in LYNM and together are referred to as the ‘quad-lab’. The R&D program execution is performed under NNSA defined structures known as “ventures”. Four science ventures were established: 1) Explosion Source Functions; 2) Containment of Low-Yield Underground Tests; 3) Local Signatures; 4) Dynamic Monitoring Networks. To organize and execute the large field scale experiment a fifth venture was established: 5) Physics Experiment One (PE-1). As part of the LYNM Program, a series of experiments are planned at various scales and levels of venture involvement. These vary from those that involve a subset of labs and/or LYNM ventures (e.g., small experiments), to full quad-lab LYNM Program field-scale integrated experiments. Such experiments may involve chemical explosions with tracer materials or other means of simulating the expected signals from a nuclear explosion. The LYNM Program does not conduct actual nuclear explosions. Since 1992, the U.S. has observed a moratorium on underground nuclear explosions. This document is intended to provide the underlying scientific basis for the LYNM planned experimental work. Each specific LYNM experiment will develop a goals, objectives, and requirements (GOR) plan following the guidance in this document. The LYNM technical staff will define the numbers and types of experiments required over the course of the Program based on technical needs and within funding constraints. As with any scientific experiment series, the number and types of experiments may change based upon the experimental results obtained. An experiment that agrees with models/codes/software signature predictions may need fewer repetitions/variations, depending upon the level of statistical rigor desired, as compared to one in which the predictions and experimental data do not match. The large LYNM field-scale integrated experiments require the longest lead-time for planning, and these are discussed in more detail near the end of this document.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Measurement of Argon-37 Background Concentrations in the Atmosphere

Radioisotopes of noble gases, primarily xenon and argon, are important indicators of underground nuclear explosions. The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) includes monitoring capabilities to identify potential nuclear explosions conducted in violation of the CTBT. This monitoring currently focuses on measurement of the xenon isotopes 133 Xe, 135 Xe, 131 mXe and 133 mXe. However, it is predicted that within 100 days of an underground nuclear explosion (UNE) 37 Ar would be released to the atmosphere at higher concentrations than xenon isotopes (Haas et al. 2010). Therefore, inclusion of 37 Ar measurement capabilities at atmospheric International Monitoring System (IMS) stations could improve the capability to detect a nuclear explosion. At an IMS station, it could be difficult to determine what constitutes an elevated concentration as a result of an UNE without first understanding the expected range of background concentrations. This work describes our analysis of atmospheric samples for 37 Ar to evaluate the range of background concentrations. The range of 37 Ar concentrations measured in atmospheric air samples was relatively narrow ranging between less than 1 mBq/m 3 to greater than 2 mBq/m 3 . The average atmospheric concentration of all samples was 0.98 mBq/m 3 , with a standard deviation of 0.5 mBq/m 3 . This is consistent with previous published results. The results presented here demonstrate the capability to detect background concentrations of 37 Ar in atmospheric air.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DATASET RELEASE AND QUALITY CONTROL REVIEW OF LIVERMORE NEVADA NETWORK (LNN) RECORDINGS OF A SUBSET OF NEVADA NUCLEAR SECURITY SITE NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS FROM 1979 TO 1992.

Geophysical research on historical nuclear tests is an important aspect of future monitoring capabilities in seismic research. This research is challenging due to the limited number of digital seismic recordings during the peak of nuclear testing (1945-1992). These limited records are unique and non-reproducible data with potential high research impact. Releasing available nuclear explosion seismic records to the explosion monitoring community is thus of high value and is the motivation for this dataset release. The target of this effort was on compilation and quality control of regional seismic records of nuclear explosions recorded on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory stations ELK, KNB, LAC, and MNV, known collectively as the Livermore National Network (LNN) (Figure 1). LNN was established in the early 1960s for the primary purpose of monitoring underground nuclear testing at the former Nevada Test Site (NTS), now known as the Nevada Nuclear Security Site (NNSS) following the signing of the Limited Test Ban Treaty (LTBT). LNN consisted initially of short-period vertical component Benioff’s recorded on film located at Mina, NV (MNV) and Kanab, Utah (KNB). LNN added two additional stations at Landers, CA (LAC) and Elko, NV (ELK) in 1967 and upgraded equipment to broadband seismometers recorded on frequency modulation (FM) tapes from 1967-1979, followed by digital recordings after 1979 (Jarpe, 1989). The digital recordings were on a variety of now obsolete media, including 9-track, Exabyte, and DAT tapes. Jarpe (1989) describes the seismic station instrumentation details over the period of deployment. LNN recorded valuable non-repeatable unique data of several hundreds of nuclear explosions at NNSS, as well as earthquakes and chemical and mining explosions (Walter, 2020). The details of these nuclear tests are provided in the Department of Energy Report NV-209 Rev 16 (DOE, 2015).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

MARSAME Radiological Release Report for Metal Items from Technical Area 53, Set 25

Environmental Protection and Compliance, Environmental Stewardship Group (EPC-ES) has evaluated the survey results for metal items from the Los Alamos Neutron Science Center (LANSCE) at Technical Area 53 (TA-53) and found that the metal items described in Table 1 of this report (identified by Radiation Protection [RP] Tracking Numbers) meet the criteria for unrestricted release under Department of Energy (DOE) Order 458.1 Chg 4, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment (DOE 2020) and can be recycled. This conclusion is based on the known history of the metal items and radiation survey data (see the completed RP-Form-031 LANSCE Metals Clearance Log [LANL 2021a] for each item in Attachment 1). None of the items in this report are located within radiological areas. Therefore, the items are considered unencumbered and are not subject to the moratorium suspension on metal recycling from DOE facilities. Additionally, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has determined that there is no practical opportunity for internal DOE reuse of this metal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗