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DOE OSTI2019

Uncertainty Quantification of Classifying Mechanical Breach in the Crash and Burn Problem

The prediction of mechanical breach in the Crash and Burn problem is important for designing the full system to minimize the probability of loss of containment. Due to uncertainties in the impact angle, material properties, and material models, it is not possible to define an exact critical impact speed at which the system breaches. Furthermore, the cost of running a large scale sampling study to determine the empirical probability of breach is prohibitive. In this work, surrogate models from machine learning, namely logistic regression and artificial neural networks, are introduced to predict binary classification of pass versus breach from a limited set of samples. The structure and calibration of these classifiers is discussed, and a set of metrics for describing the performance of the classifiers is introduced. The classifiers are used on the UUR version of the Crash model to attempt prediction of failure probability and perform variable sensitivity analysis. Where a single sample of the computational model can take hundreds of CPU-hours, training and evaluating a classifier can take seconds or less, thus giving high predictive power in a relatively short time.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Insights into cosmological structure formation with machine learning.

Our modern understanding of cosmological structure formation posits that small matter density fluctuations present in the early Universe, as traced by the cosmic microwave background, grow via gravitational instability to form extended haloes of dark matter. A theoretical understanding of the structure, evolution and formation of dark matter haloes is an essential step towards unravelling the intricate connection between halo and galaxy formation, needed to test our cosmological model against data from upcoming galaxy surveys. Physical understanding of the process of dark matter halo formation is made difficult by the highly non-linear nature of the haloes' evolution. I describe a new approach to gain physical insight into cosmological structure formation based on machine learning. This approach combines the ability of machine learning algorithms to learn non-linear relationships, with techniques that enable us to physically interpret the learnt mapping. I describe applicatio ns of th e method, with the aim of investigating which aspects of the early universe density field impact the later formation of dark matter haloes. First I present a case where the process of halo formation is turned into a binary classification problem; the algorithm predicts whether or not dark matter `particles' in the initial conditions of a simulation will collapse into haloes of a given mass range. Second, I present its generalization to regression, where the algorithm infers the final mass of the halo to which each particle will later belong. I show that the initial tidal shear does not play a significant role compared to the initial density field in establishing final halo masses. Finally, I demonstrate that extending the framework to deep learning algorithms such as convolutional neural networks allows us to explore connections between the early universe and late time haloes beyond those studied by existing analytic approximations of halo collapse.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning approaches to streamline and enhance the analysis of multiscale imaging data for bioaerosol and soil particles

Bioaerosol and soil particles are ubiquitous in the environment. They are multicomponent and complex in nature displaying mixed inorganic and organic components. The way components are mixed in a bioaerosol sample is referred to as its mixing state. Soil particles are also a mixture of inorganic (mineral) and organic (soil organic matter) components. Bioaerosol particles contribute to a major fraction of coarse mode atmospheric particles, especially in the tropical areas, contributing up to 80 % of the particle mass concentration. The mixing state of particles is crucial to evaluate because it impacts several important environmental processes such as warm and cold cloud formation and radiation budget. Mixing states in aerosols are accompanied by chemical reactions across solid-liquid-gas interfaces. In this study, we utilized elemental compositions and microcopy images of thousands of atmospheric particles acquired by computer-controlled scanning electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometer to compute the mixing state of atmospheric particles. A 2D convolutional neural network (CNN), also known as convnet, was used to model the relationship between low resolution imaging data and higher resolution spectroscopy data, with the former as training input and the latter as target output. Two types of CNNs were implemented and tested; a basic CNN and an Inception-v3 network. For binary classification, the basic CNN achieved an accuracy of 84.29 % across all atom types, and the Inception-v3-like network achieved an accuracy 85.51 %. This study demonstrates the applicability of deep learning to handle large amounts of imaging/chemical spectroscopy data efficiently and evaluate particle mixing state from a range of environmental samples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Comparison between Invariant and Equivariant Classical and Quantum Graph Neural Networks

Machine learning algorithms are heavily relied on to understand the vast amounts of data from high-energy particle collisions at the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The data from such collision events can naturally be represented with graph structures. Therefore, deep geometric methods, such as graph neural networks (GNNs), have been leveraged for various data analysis tasks in high-energy physics. One typical task is jet tagging, where jets are viewed as point clouds with distinct features and edge connections between their constituent particles. The increasing size and complexity of the LHC particle datasets, as well as the computational models used for their analysis, have greatly motivated the development of alternative fast and efficient computational paradigms such as quantum computation. In addition, to enhance the validity and robustness of deep networks, we can leverage the fundamental symmetries present in the data through the use of invariant inputs and equivariant layers. In this paper, we provide a fair and comprehensive comparison of classical graph neural networks (GNNs) and equivariant graph neural networks (EGNNs) and their quantum counterparts: quantum graph neural networks (QGNNs) and equivariant quantum graph neural networks (EQGNN). The four architectures were benchmarked on a binary classification task to classify the parton-level particle initiating the jet. Based on their area under the curve (AUC) scores, the quantum networks were found to outperform the classical networks. However, seeing the computational advantage of quantum networks in practice may have to wait for the further development of quantum technology and its associated application programming interfaces (APIs).

Forestano, Roy T. (ORCID:0000000203552076)↗

DOE OSTI2024

ℤ2 × ℤ2 Equivariant Quantum Neural Networks: Benchmarking against Classical Neural Networks

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the performance of Equivariant Quantum Neural Networks (EQNNs) and Quantum Neural Networks (QNNs), juxtaposed against their classical counterparts: Equivariant Neural Networks (ENNs) and Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). We evaluate the performance of each network with three two-dimensional toy examples for a binary classification task, focusing on model complexity (measured by the number of parameters) and the size of the training dataset. Our results show that the Z2×Z2 EQNN and the QNN provide superior performance for smaller parameter sets and modest training data samples.

Dong, Zhongtian (ORCID:0000000210003454)↗

DOE OSTI2019

An application of survival analysis to disruption prediction via Random Forests

One of the most pressing challenges facing the fusion community is adequately mitigating or, even better, avoiding disruptions of tokamak plasmas. However, before this can be done, disruptions must first be predicted with sufficient warning time to actuate a response. The established field of survival analysis provides a convenient statistical framework for time-to-event (i.e. time-to-disruption) studies. This paper demonstrates the integration of an existing disruption prediction machine learning algorithm with the Kaplan-Meier estimator of survival probability. Specifically discussed are the implied warning times from binary classification of disruption databases and the interpretation of output signals from Random Forest algorithms trained and tested on these databases. This survival analysis approach is applied to both smooth and noisy test data to highlight important features of the survival and hazard functions. In addition, this method is applied to three Alcator C-Mod plasma discharges and compared to a threshold-based scheme for triggering alarms. In one case, both techniques successfully predict the disruption; although, in another, neither warns of the impending disruption with enough time to mitigate. For the final discharge, the survival analysis approach could avoid the false alarm triggered by the threshold method. Limitations of this analysis and opportunities for future work are also presented.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1984

Calibration or inverse regression: Which is appropriate for crop surveys using LANDSAT data?

Calibration and inverse regression estimators of crop proportions are investigated where the auxiliary variable is obtained from binary classification of multivariate LANDSAT data. The appropriate model relating classifier proportions and ground observed proportions for a given crop type is the calibration model. Under this model the inverse regression estimator is superior to the calibration estimator in estimating the crop acreage or proportion for a region of interest.

Chhikara, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Stochastic robustness

To carry out stochastic robustness analysis, an expected probability distribution is assigned to each uncertain parameter in the system. The Monte Carlo analysis proceeds by repeatedly assigning shaped random values to each plant parameter, evaluating the stability of performance metric, and performing the binary classification (stable/unstable, etc.). If the system is stable, the state response to a unit disturbance impulse can be propagated to establish whether the response would violate settling time envelopes and whether peak actuator use would violate predetermined maximums. The final estimates of the probability of each form of unacceptable behavior are found by dividing the number of cases in which the overall system had that form of unacceptability by the number of cases run. Stability robustness can be portrayed graphically using the stochastic root locus and by using histograms of parameter values found in the unacceptable cases.

Marrison, C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Experiments on Supervised Learning Algorithms for Text Categorization

Modern information society is facing the challenge of handling massive volume of online documents, news, intelligence reports, and so on. How to use the information accurately and in a timely manner becomes a major concern in many areas. While the general information may also include images and voice, we focus on the categorization of text data in this paper. We provide a brief overview of the information processing flow for text categorization, and discuss two supervised learning algorithms, viz., support vector machines (SVM) and partial least squares (PLS), which have been successfully applied in other domains, e.g., fault diagnosis [9]. While SVM has been well explored for binary classification and was reported as an efficient algorithm for text categorization, PLS has not yet been applied to text categorization. Our experiments are conducted on three data sets: Reuter's- 21578 dataset about corporate mergers and data acquisitions (ACQ), WebKB and the 20-Newsgroups. Results show that the performance of PLS is comparable to SVM in text categorization. A major drawback of SVM for multi-class categorization is that it requires a voting scheme based on the results of pair-wise classification. PLS does not have this drawback and could be a better candidate for multi-class text categorization.

Namburu, Setu Madhavi↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2010

Topics covered include: Instrument for Analysis of Greenland's Glacier Mills Cryogenic Moisture Apparatus; A Transportable Gravity Gradiometer Based on Atom Interferometry; Three Methods of Detection of Hydrazines; Crossed, Small-Deflection Energy Analyzer for Wind/Temperature Spectrometer; Wavefront Correction for Large, Flexible Antenna Reflector; Novel Micro Strip-to-Waveguide Feed Employing a Double-Y Junction; Thin-Film Ferro Electric-Coupled Microstripline Phase Shifters With Reduced Device Hysteresis; Two-Stage, 90-GHz, Low-Noise Amplifier; A 311-GHz Fundamental Oscillator Using InP HBT Technology; FPGA Coprocessor Design for an Onboard Multi-Angle Spectro-Polarimetric Imager; Serrating Nozzle Surfaces for Complete Transfer of Droplets; Turbomolecular Pumps for Holding Gases in Open Containers; Triaxial Swirl Injector Element for Liquid-Fueled Engines; Integrated Budget Office Toolbox; PLOT3D Export Tool for Tecplot; Math Description Engine Software Development Kit; Astronaut Office Scheduling System Software; ISS Solar Array Management; Probabilistic Structural Analysis Program; SPOT Program; Integrated Hybrid System Architecture for Risk Analysis; System for Packaging Planetary Samples for Return to Earth; Offset Compound Gear Drive; Low-Dead-Volume Inlet for Vacuum Chamber; Simple Check Valves for Microfluidic Devices; A Capillary-Based Static Phase Separator for Highly Variable Wetting Conditions; Gimballing Spacecraft Thruster; Finned Carbon-Carbon Heat Pipe with Potassium Working Fluid; Lightweight Heat Pipes Made from Magnesium; Ceramic Rail-Race Ball Bearings; Improved OTEC System for a Submarine Robot; Reflector Surface Error Compensation in Dual-Reflector Antennas; Enriched Storable Oxidizers for Rocket Engines; Planar Submillimeter-Wave Mixer Technology with Integrated Antenna; Widely Tunable Mode-Hop-Free External-Cavity Quantum Cascade Laser; Non-Geiger-Mode Single-Photon Avalanche Detector with Low Excess Noise; Using Whispering-Gallery-Mode Resonators for Refractometry; RF Device for Acquiring Images of the Human Body; Reactive Collision Avoidance Algorithm; Fast Solution in Sparse LDA for Binary Classification; Modeling Common-Sense Decisions in Artificial Intelligence; Graph-Based Path-Planning for Titan Balloons; Nanolaminate Membranes as Cylindrical Telescope Reflectors; Air-Sea Spray Airborne Radar Profiler Characterizes Energy Fluxes in Hurricanes; Large Telescope Segmented Primary Mirror Alignment; and Simplified Night Sky Display System.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Long-Term Impacts of Selective Logging on Amazon Forest Dynamics from Multi-Temporal Airborne LiDAR

Forest degradation is common in tropical landscapes, but estimates of the extent and duration of degradation impacts are highly uncertain. In particular, selective logging is a form of forest degradation that alters canopy structure and function, with persistent ecological impacts following forest harvest. In this study, we employed airborne laser scanning in 2012 and 2014 to estimate three-dimensional changes in the forest canopy and understory structure and aboveground biomass following reduced-impact selective logging in a site in Eastern Amazon. Also, we developed a binary classification model to distinguish intact versus logged forests. We found that canopy gap frequency was significantly higher in logged versus intact forests even after 8 years (the time span of our study). In contrast, the understory of logged areas could not be distinguished from the understory of intact forests after 6–7 years of logging activities. Measuring new gap formation between LiDAR acquisitions in 2012 and 2014, we showed rates 2 to 7 times higher in logged areas compared to intact forests. New gaps were spatially clumped with 76 to 89% of new gaps within 5 m of prior logging damage. The biomass dynamics in areas logged between the two LiDAR acquisitions was clearly detected with an average estimated loss of -4.14 +/- 0.76 MgC/hay. In areas recovering from logging prior to the first acquisition, we estimated biomass gains close to zero. Together, our findings unravel the magnitude and duration of delayed impacts of selective logging in forest structural attributes, confirm the high potential of airborne LiDAR multitemporal data to characterize forest degradation in the tropics, and present a novel approach to forest classification using LiDAR data.

Pinage, Ekena Rangel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quality of Candidate Flights and Submission Prediction in Collaborative Digital Departure Reroute

Collaborative Digital Departure Reroute (CDDR) enables the reroute of flights using a flight operator proposed set of alternative route options, referred to as Trajectory Option Set (TOS), in order to reduce delay on the airport's surface and in the Metroplex environment. The reroute functionality is enabled through NASA's Digital Information Platform (DIP). TOS candidate flights are defined as flights with an alternative route with delay savings greater than the flight operator defined relative trajectory cost. This paper analyzes the TOS candidate flights at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (KDFW) in the North Texas Metroplex to gain insight into which candidate flights are higher quality through a scoring method. This insight will inform refinements to help CDDR focus on high quality reroute opportunities. Binary classification models for predicting the flight operator's submission of candidate flights are also explored in this paper.

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Quality of Candidate Flights and Submission Prediction in Collaborative Digital Departure Reroute

Machine Learning↗

NASA NTRS2024

Automatic Detection of Large-scale Flux Ropes and Their Geoeffectiveness with a Machine-learning Approach

Detecting large-scale flux ropes (FRs) embedded in interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and assessing their geoeffectiveness are essential, since they can drive severe space weather. At 1 au, these FRs have an average duration of 1 day. Their most common magnetic features are large, smoothly rotating magnetic fields. Their manual detection has become a relatively common practice over decades, although visual detection can be time-consuming and subject to observer bias. Our study proposes a pipeline that utilizes two supervised binary classification machine-learning models trained with solar wind magnetic properties to automatically detect large-scale FRs and additionally determine their geoeffectiveness. The first model is used to generate a list of autodetected FRs. Using the properties of the southward magnetic field, the second model determines the geoeffectiveness of FRs. Our method identifies 88.6% and 80% of large-scale ICMEs (duration 1day) observed at 1au by the Wind and the Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory missions, respectively. While testing with continuous solar wind data obtained from Wind, our pipeline detected 56 of the 64 large-scale ICMEs during the 2008–2014 period (recall = 0.875), but also many false positives (precision = 0.56), as we do not take into account any additional solar wind properties other than the magnetic properties. We find an accuracy of 0.88 when estimating the geoeffectiveness of the autodetected FRs using our method. Thus, in space-weather nowcasting and forecasting at L1 or any planetary missions, our pipeline can be utilized to offer a first-order detection of large-scale FRs and their geoeffectiveness.

Sanchita Pal↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

LLMs and GenAI Tools to Depict Contributions of Human Systems to Spaceflight Tasks Execution

Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning (AI/ML) technologies, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs) capable of sophisticated syntax analysis, offer substantial potential in automating complex processes, thereby saving time and human resources. This study explores the development of an LLM-driven model designed to analyze and categorize a diverse set of Mars mission tasks into 18 predefined Human System Task Categories (HSTCs) based on their textual descriptions. As part of developing the Crew Health and Performance – Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CHP-PRA projects Performance Risk Model (PRisM) proof-of-concept, we established a framework to project performance scores from small-scale tests onto a preliminary list of Mars tasks. The foundation of our model was a comprehensive spreadsheet populated by NASA experts and clinicians, which detailed each Mars task alongside binary indicators of HSTC involvement. This dataset enabled the initial application of supervised ML, training and testing on existing HSTC labels. The HSTCs were originally defined from a medical system perspective, focusing on task impairments due to deteriorated human health. To expand our model's scope to include categories impacting performance, we face the challenge of generating binary labels (0 or 1) for new categories without pre-existing data. We address this by employing Generative AI (GenAI) software to determine whether a given task involved a new category by asking, "Does task A involve using category B?" We validate our approach by comparing the GenAI's binary classifications with the expert-provided labels for existing HSTCs. Notably, we utilize Ollama [4], a locally hosted GenAI tool that does not require cloud access, thus safeguarding NASA's proprietary data from unauthorized exposure. This study demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging cutting-edge AI tools to advance research, paving the way for automation and rapid decision-making in space exploration.

Mona Matar↗

DOE OSTI2017

Fishing for Clickbaits in Social Images and Texts with Linguistically-Infused Neural Network Models

This paper presents the results and conclusions of our participation in the Clickbait Challenge 2017 on automatic clickbait detection in social media. We first describe linguistically-infused neural network models and identify informative representations to predict the level of clickbaiting present in Twitter posts. Our models allow to answer the question not only whether a post is a clickbait or not, but to what extent it is a clickbait post e.g., not at all, slightly, considerably, or heavily clickbaity using a score ranging from 0 to 1. We evaluate the predictive power of models trained on varied text and image representations extracted from tweets. Our best performing model that relies on the tweet text and linguistic markers of biased language extracted from the tweet and the corresponding page yields mean squared error (MSE) of 0.04, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.16 and R2 of 0.43 on the held-out test data. For the binary classification setup (clickbait vs. non-clickbait), our model achieved F1 score of 0.69. We have not found that image representations combined with text yield significant performance improvement yet. Nevertheless, this work is the first to present preliminary analysis of objects extracted using Google Tensorflow object detection API from images in clickbait vs. non-clickbait Twitter posts. Finally, we outline several steps to improve model performance as a part of the future work.

dlickbait challenge, Twitter, neural networks, mac↗