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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Observations and modeling reveal that heatwaves reduce photosynthesis, plant carbon reserves, and net carbon uptake

Heatwaves threaten ecosystem carbon balances, yet the mechanisms driving short-term carbon flux responses remain poorly understood. Here, integrating high-frequency eddy covariance (EC) data from 140 global flux tower sites (872 site-years) with detailed process-based modeling, we examine ecosystem responses during and immediately after heatwaves. We show that heatwaves caused a −40% (range [−29%, −128%]) reduction in net ecosystem productivity (NEP) compared to pre-heatwave values, with this reduction persisting over the following two weeks (−38% range [+3%, −154%]). We attributed NEP decreases to photosynthesis decreases more than to ecosystem respiration (RE) increases. Forest sites had greater NEP decreases during heatwaves than non-forest sites, but remained carbon sinks afterwards, indicating resilience. Our modeling analysis of extreme heatwaves at selected EC sites shows that decreased photosynthesis, increased maintenance respiration, and decreased plant non-structural carbon reserves during heatwaves drive carbon cycle changes that persist for weeks. Consistent with phenocam observations, we modeled a reduction in leaf area index caused by reduced non-structural carbon reserves, leading to early leaf senescence and longer-term impacts. Ongoing increases in heatwaves are therefore likely to reduce NEP across a range of ecosystems, exacerbating carbon cycle feedback.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying atmospheric carbon removal at pulp and paper mills: a life cycle assessment across system boundaries

The pulp and paper industry is a promising yet underexplored platform for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its use of biogenic feedstocks and production of concentrated CO 2 emissions from point sources. This study presents the first comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of retrofitting an amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) system into a representative virgin kraft pulp and paper mill in the Southeastern U.S. We evaluate carbon removal across five system configurations, applying both static and dynamic LCA methods under multiple functional units: CO 2 captured, biomass input, and paper output. Results show that CCS retrofits can convert a conventional mill from a net emitter into a net carbon sink, with total removal efficiencies from 17% to 92% (metric tonnes of CO 2 removed per metric tonne of CO 2 available for removal under selected boundary conditions). When carbon removal is normalized to the quantity of biogenic CO 2 captured—a narrow, gate-to-gate system boundary that considers only CCS facility emissions—removal efficiencies reached as high as 92%. The use of such narrow boundaries aligns with precedents in traditional LCA methodology, where gate-to-gate assessments are commonly applied to isolate process-level performance and allocate emissions accordingly, providing a consistent basis for comparison across technologies. Under broader cradle-to-grave boundaries—which begin tracking carbon at the point of its physical removal from the atmosphere via photosynthesis in the forest, and extend to include upstream forest operations, mill-wide emissions, and downstream product decomposition—efficiencies declined, ranging from 17% to 46% under static assumptions and dropping to 12% when accounting for dynamic biogenic carbon fluxes over time. These results underscore how system boundary definitions influence reported outcomes, while also illustrating the complementary roles of narrow and broad perspectives for different decision-making contexts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source:sink imbalance detected with leaf and canopy-level spectroscopy in a field-grown crop

The finely-tuned balance between sources and sinks determines plant resource partitioning and regulates growth and development. Understanding and measuring metabolic indicators of source or sink limitation forms a vital part of global efforts to increase crop yield for future food security. Here, we measured metabolic profiles of Cucurbita pepo (zucchini) grown in the field under carbon sink limitation and control conditions. We demonstrate that these profiles can be measured non-destructively using hyperspectral reflectance at both leaf and canopy scales. Total non-structural carbohydrates (TNC) increased 82% in sink-limited plants; leaf mass per unit area (LMA) increased 38%; free amino acids increased 22%. Partial least-squares regression models link these measured functional traits with reflectance data, enabling high-throughput estimation of traits comprising the sink limitation response. Leaf- and canopy-scale models for TNC had R 2 values of 0.93 and 0.64 and %RMSE of 13% and 38% respectively. For LMA, R 2 values were 0.91 and 0.60 and %RMSE 7% and 14%; for free amino acids, R 2 was 0.53 and 0.21 with %RMSE 20% and 26%. Remote sensing can enable accurate, rapid detection of sink limitation in the field at the leaf and canopy scale, greatly expanding our ability to understand and measure metabolic responses to stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Interannual variability of spring and summer monsoon growing season carbon exchange at a semiarid savanna over nearly two decades

Eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere energy, carbon, and water exchange now span multiple decades at some sites, supporting an improved understanding of flux interannual variability (IAV) and its ecophysiological and physical controls. Most eddy covariance IAV studies have focused on temperate forest ecosystems, where carbon fluxes are large and flux records are longest – but also where IAV is much lower than in dryland regions, which have been identified as an essential driver of the trend and variability in the global terrestrial carbon sink. In this study, we leveraged 19 years of continuous micrometeorological measurements at the AmeriFlux US-SRM mesquite savanna site in southern Arizona, USA to quantify the IAV, trends, and drivers of carbon fluxes during the distinct spring and summer growing seasons. We also assessed the ability of modern satellite and land surface models to capture the IAV of seasonal water and carbon fluxes. Annual net ecosystem production (NEP) was small and highly variable (23 +/- 64 gC m –2 yr –1 ). Precipitation and associated measures of water availability determined most of the variability in NEP, largely through their influence on annual and seasonal gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) as opposed to ecosystem respiration (ER). Root-zone soil moisture captured between 73% (spring) and 85% (summer) of GEP variability and between 73% (spring) and 58% (summer) of ER variability. Throughout the study period, soil moisture and greenness increased with associated increases in GEP, ER and NEP. These trends were strongly influenced by very productive and wet summer growing seasons during the last two years, which were characterized by abundant understory grass cover. Typically, less than half of the variability in growing season GEP and evapotranspiration was captured by satellite-based estimates and land surface model simulations with local site forcing and calibration, highlighting the ongoing utility of long-term datasets to support careful model testing and improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Vegetation biogeography is a main source of uncertainty in modelling the land carbon cycle

The terrestrial biosphere exchanges a large amount of CO 2 with the atmosphere through photosynthesis and respiration, determining the magnitude of land carbon sink and consequently influencing the rate of global warming. The magnitudes of global photosynthesis and respiration, however, vary widely across models (100-200 PgC/year), constituting a key and persistent source of uncertainty in carbon cycle and climate modelling. Here, we argue that the uncertainty in the land carbon cycle modelling is largely attributable to the uncertainty in biogeography – the distribution of plant functional types (PFTs). Using an ensemble of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), we find a strong dependence of total photosynthesis on total area for each PFT. The dependence allows us to reduce the spread of land carbon cycle estimates by ~75% using remote sensing-based PFT maps. We further find that 56 ± 21% of climate-driven changes in global photosynthesis modelled by DGVMs are caused by changes in PFT distribution in the last two decades. Our study identifies vegetation biogeography as a main controlling factor of uncertainty in land carbon cycle modelling and highlights the importance of biogeography-climate interactions in carbon cycle and climate studies.

Zhao, Ruiying [National Univ. of Singapore (Singap↗
DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant carbohydrate storage: intra- and inter-specific trade-offs reveal a major life history trait

Trade-offs among carbon sinks constrain how trees physiologically, ecologically, and evolutionarily respond to their environments. These trade-offs typically fall along a productive growth to conservative, bet-hedging continuum. How nonstructural carbohydrates (NSCs) stored in living tree cells (known as carbon stores) fit in this trade-off framework is not well understood. Here, we examined relationships between growth and storage using both within species genetic variation from a common garden, and across species phenotypic variation from a global database. We demonstrate that storage is actively accumulated, as part of a conservative, bet-hedging life history strategy. Storage accumulates at the expense of growth both within and across species. Within the species Populus trichocarpa, genetic trade-offs show that for each additional unit of wood area growth (in cm 2 yr –1 ) that genotypes invest in, they lose 1.2 to 1.7 units (mg g –1 NSC) of storage. Across species, for each additional unit of area growth (in cm 2 yr –1 ), trees, on average, reduce their storage by 9.5% in stems and 10.4% in roots. Our findings impact our understanding of basic plant biology, fit storage into a widely used growth-survival trade-off spectrum describing life history strategy, and challenges the assumptions of passive storage made in ecosystem models today.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Peatland warming strongly increases fine-root growth

Belowground climate change responses remain a key unknown in the Earth system. Plant fine-root response is especially important to understand because fine roots respond quickly to environmental change, are responsible for nutrient and water uptake, and influence carbon cycling. However, fine-root responses to climate change are poorly constrained, especially in northern peatlands, which contain up to two-thirds of the world’s soil carbon. We present fine-root responses to warming between +2 °C and 9 °C above ambient conditions in a whole-ecosystem peatland experiment. Warming strongly increased fine-root growth by over an order of magnitude in the warmest treatment, with stronger responses in shrubs than in trees or graminoids. In the first year of treatment, the control (+0 °C) shrub fine-root growth of 0.9 km m -2 y -1 increased linearly by 1.2 km m -2 y -1 (130%) for every degree increase in soil temperature. An extended belowground growing season accounted for 20% of this dramatic increase. In the second growing season of treatment, the shrub warming response rate increased to 2.54 km m -2 °C -1 . Soil moisture was negatively correlated with fine-root growth, highlighting that drying of these typically water-saturated ecosystems can fuel a surprising burst in shrub belowground productivity, one possible mechanism explaining the “shrubification” of northern peatlands in response to global change. This previously unrecognized mechanism sheds light on how peatland fine-root response to warming and drying could be strong and rapid, with consequences for the belowground growing season duration, microtopography, vegetation composition, and ultimately, carbon function of these globally relevant carbon sinks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sustainability of soil organic carbon in consolidated gully land in China’s Loess Plateau

Massive gully land consolidation projects, launched in China’s Loess Plateau, aim to restore 2667 km 2 agricultural lands in total by consolidating 2026 highly eroded gullies. This effort represents a social engineering project where the economic development and livelihood of the farming families are closely tied to the ability of these emergent landscapes to provide agricultural services. Whether these ‘time zero’ landscapes have the resilience to provide a sustainable soil condition such as soil organic carbon (SOC) content remains unknown. By studying two watersheds, one of which is a control site, we show that the consolidated gully serves as an enhanced carbon sink, where the magnitude of SOC increase rate (1.0 gC/m 2 /year) is about twice that of the SOC decrease rate (-0.5 gC/m 2 /year) in the surrounding natural watershed. Over a 50-year co-evolution of landscape and SOC turnover, we find that the dominant mechanisms that determine the carbon cycling are different between the consolidated gully and natural watersheds. In natural watersheds, the flux of SOC transformation is mainly driven by the flux of SOC transport; but in the consolidated gully, the transport has little impact on the transformation. Furthermore, we find that extending the surface carbon residence time has the potential to efficiently enhance carbon sequestration from the atmosphere with a rate as high as 8 gC/m 2 /year compared to the current 0.4 gC/m 2 /year. The success for the completion of all gully consolidation would lead to as high as 26.67 GgC/year sequestrated into soils. This work, therefore, not only provides an assessment and guidance of the long-term sustainability of the ‘time zero’ landscapes but also a solution for sequestration CO 2 into soils.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water availability modulates maximum canopy heights of low-elevation Amazonian second-growth forests

Tropical second-growth forests of the Amazon sequester large amounts of carbon and are important carbon sinks, contributing substantially to climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, and providing crucial ecosystem services. Deforestation due to selective logging and shifting cultivation is expanding second-growth forest areas in tropical forest regions, which if well managed, regenerate rapidly over time. Maximum forest canopy height is an important metric of biomass and carbon accumulation in second-growth forests and is strongly influenced by water availability. The water limitation hypothesis explains the positive influence of water availability on maximum tree heights and has been examined and demonstrated at a small-scale using field data, and at a global scale, with limited accuracy, using remote sensing data in tropical ecosystems. However, this hypothesis concerning maximum canopy height has not been much studied at regional and national scales for tropical second-growth forests. In this study, we leveraged NASA GEDI spaceborne lidar data across the Brazilian Amazon and derived second-growth forest relative height metrics for delineating the influence of water availability, second-growth forest age, and topographic elevation on maximum canopy height. Water availability was found to significantly influence the maximum canopy height of second-growth forest trees, of age range from 30 to 35 years, at elevations less than 500 m and maximum precipitation thresholds of 1500 mm. Our results indicate that changing precipitation patterns or increased drought conditions under different climate change regimes could impact forest structure, plant communities, ecosystem functioning, and carbon sequestration capabilities of tropical second-growth forests in the Amazon.

Carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2020

Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (Flyer 2020)

A significant fraction of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) released to the atmosphere during energy production is taken up by terrestrial ecosystems. This carbon “sink” represents an important but poorly characterized buffer for offsetting the greenhouse gas effects of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. Also unclear are the effects of related processes such as nutrient, water, and energy cycling—in addition to climate variability and change— on that uptake. Resolving the terrestrial biosphere’s role in the global carbon cycle is consequently a high priority for the Terrestrial Ecosystem Science (TES) program within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Understanding the mechanisms and dynamics of ecosystem processes in the face of a changing climate is also essential for improving the representation of terrestrial ecosystems and climate feedbacks in Earth system models (ESMs). TES supports research to advance fundamental understanding of terrestrial ecosystems and their roles in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bioenergy pathways within United States net-zero CO 2 emissions scenarios in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum 37 study is organized around carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) mitigation scenarios reaching net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050 in the United States. Here, this paper summarizes the potential contribution of bioenergy use in the electric power, transportation, industrial, and buildings sectors toward meeting that target based on model results. Thirteen modeling teams reported bioenergy consumption in the Reference and Net Zero scenarios. Consumption of bioenergy increased over time in the Reference scenario, from an average across models of 3.2 exajoules (EJ) in 2020 to 3.8 EJ in 2050. Average bioenergy consumption in 2050 increased further to 7.3 EJ in the Net Zero scenario. All scenarios that reach net-zero emissions required some form of carbon dioxide removal to offset emissions that are difficult to reduce. Carbon dioxide removal using bioenergy with CO 2 capture and storage (BECCS) varies widely across models, up to 1000 Mt CO 2 in 2050. Some models rely instead on direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS), up to 2200 Mt CO 2 , and others use a combination of BECCS and DACCS. Model results show a strong inverse relationship between the amounts of BECCS and DACCS deployed. All modeling teams assumed a carbon sink from land use, land use change, and forestry, further offsetting a portion of emissions from fossil fuels and industry that are expensive to eliminate. Bioenergy consumption in 2050 decreased by an average of 1.5 EJ across eight models in a Net Zero+ scenario relative to the Net Zero scenario, due in part to a lower equilibrium carbon price resulting from optimistic cost assumptions for all energy technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Contrasting carbon dynamics in grazed and flood-prone grasslands on mineral and degraded peat soils

Ecosystem-scale methane (CH₄) flux measurements from grazed grasslands remain scarce, despite their importance for understanding grassland contributions to the global carbon budget. In this study, we present full annual budgets of both carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄ derived from eddy covariance measurements at two contrasting grazed grasslands: a floodplain grassland at Marchegg, Austria, and an intensively grazed pasture at Sherman Barn, California. By combining continuous, year-round observations of CO₂ and CH₄, this study provides a rare, comparative assessment of greenhouse gas dynamics across distinct climatic, hydrological, and management regimes. Our results highlight how environmental conditions, grazing intensity, and hydrology jointly regulate CO₂ exchange and CH₄ emissions, underscoring the importance of including methane alongside net ecosystem exchange when evaluating grassland carbon balances. At Marchegg, characterized by seasonal flooding and moderate horse grazing on mineral soils, the ecosystem acted as a weak carbon sink in 2024, with a GWP 100 of 42.2 ± 113.4 g CO₂ eq m⁻². Net CO₂ uptake (–27.3 ± 30.2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹) was partly offset by CH₄ emissions (1.6 ± 0.04 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹), which were strongly linked to soil moisture and inundation events. In contrast, Sherman Barn, a cattle pasture on degraded peat soils, was a consistent carbon source in 2019, with a GWP 100 of 567.6 ± 120.5 g CO₂ eq m⁻², associated with high ecosystem respiration during summer. The site released 125.3 ± 32.2 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ of CO₂ and 3 ± 0.06 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ of CH₄. Across both sites, net ecosystem exchange was primarily linked to photosynthetically active radiation and vegetation greenness, while CH₄ fluxes were related to soil moisture rather than grazing intensity. Flooding at Marchegg reduced CO₂ uptake but enhanced CH₄ emissions, highlighting the critical role of flood timing within the growing season. Moreover, inundation appeared to suppress the spread of invasive plant species, emphasizing the ecological value of dynamic hydrological regimes. Together, these findings reveal the complexity of grassland carbon budgets and the need for site-specific, year-round CO₂ and CH₄ monitoring to inform climate-adaptive management strategies.

Carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2025

Overestimated natural biological nitrogen fixation translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect in Earth system models

CO 2 fertilization of the terrestrial biosphere is limited by nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) is the dominant natural nitrogen source to the terrestrial biosphere and can alleviate nitrogen limitation but is poorly constrained in Earth system models (ESMs). Here, in this study, we compare terrestrial BNF from an ensemble of ESMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to a new global synthesis of observations across natural and agricultural biomes. We find that compared to observations, ESMs underestimate agricultural BNF but overestimate natural BNF in the present day by over 50%. Natural BNF is overestimated in the most productive ecosystems that contribute most to the terrestrial carbon sink (forests and grasslands). ESMs with different BNF representations yield a range of BNF responses to CO 2 enrichment. Some ESMs with phenomenological representations of BNF predict a natural BNF increase in response to a doubling of CO 2 that aligns with a meta-analysis of CO 2 enrichment experiments (31% increase) but fail to account for the substantial carbon cost of BNF. In contrast, ESMs with mechanistic representations of BNF account for its carbon cost as well as its regulation by nitrogen limitation but overestimate the BNF response to a doubling of CO 2 (135% increase). Overall, all current BNF representations in ESMs fall short of fully capturing its response to rising atmospheric CO 2 . Finally, we find a positive correlation between modeled present-day natural BNF and the CO 2 fertilization effect across ESMs, suggesting that overestimated natural BNF translates to an exaggerated CO 2 fertilization effect of approximately 11% in ESMs.

Biological nitrogen fixation↗
DOE OSTI2023

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO 2

Theory predicts that rising CO 2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO 2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO 2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO 2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO 2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO 2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗