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Clouds in ECMWF's 30 KM Resolution Global Atmospheric Forecast Model (TL639)

Global models of the general circulation of the atmosphere resolve a wide range of length scales, and in particular cloud structures extend from planetary scales to the smallest scales resolvable, now down to 30 km in state-of-the-art models. Even the highest resolution models do not resolve small-scale cloud phenomena seen, for example, in Landsat and other high-resolution satellite images of clouds. Unresolved small-scale disturbances often grow into larger ones through non-linear processes that transfer energy upscale. Understanding upscale cascades is of crucial importance in predicting current weather, and in parameterizing cloud-radiative processes that control long term climate. Several movie animations provide examples of the temporal and spatial variation of cloud fields produced in 4-day runs of the forecast model at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, England, at particular times and locations of simultaneous measurement field campaigns. model resolution is approximately 30 km horizontally (triangular truncation TL639) with 31 vertical levels from surface to stratosphere. Timestep of the model is about 10 minutes, but animation frames are 3 hours apart, at timesteps when the radiation is computed. The animations were prepared from an archive of several 4-day runs at the highest available model resolution, and archived at ECMWF. Cloud, wind and temperature fields in an approximately 1000 km X 1000 km box were retrieved from the archive, then approximately 60 Mb Vis5d files were prepared with the help of Graeme Kelly of ECMWF, and were compressed into MPEG files each less than 3 Mb. We discuss the interaction of clouds and radiation in the model, and compare the variability of cloud liquid as a function of scale to that seen in cloud observations made in intensive field campaigns. Comparison of high-resolution global runs to cloud-resolving models, and to lower resolution climate models is leading to better understanding of the upscale cascade and suggesting new cloud-radiation parameterizations for climate models.

Cahalan, R. F.↗

Fabrication and Modification of Nanoporous Silicon Particles

Silicon-based nanoporous particles as biodegradable drug carriers are advantageous in permeation, controlled release, and targeting. The use of biodegradable nanoporous silicon and silicon dioxide, with proper surface treatments, allows sustained drug release within the target site over a period of days, or even weeks, due to selective surface coating. A variety of surface treatment protocols are available for silicon-based particles to be stabilized, functionalized, or modified as required. Coated polyethylene glycol (PEG) chains showed the effective depression of both plasma protein adsorption and cell attachment to the modified surfaces, as well as the advantage of long circulating. Porous silicon particles are micromachined by lithography. Compared to the synthesis route of the nanomaterials, the advantages include: (1) the capability to make different shapes, not only spherical particles but also square, rectangular, or ellipse cross sections, etc.; (2) the capability for very precise dimension control; (3) the capacity for porosity and pore profile control; and (4) allowance of complex surface modification. The particle patterns as small as 60 nm can be fabricated using the state-of-the-art photolithography. The pores in silicon can be fabricated by exposing the silicon in an HF/ethanol solution and then subjecting the pores to an electrical current. The size and shape of the pores inside silicon can be adjusted by the doping of the silicon, electrical current application, the composition of the electrolyte solution, and etching time. The surface of the silicon particles can be modified by many means to provide targeted delivery and on-site permanence for extended release. Multiple active agents can be co-loaded into the particles. Because the surface modification of particles can be done on wafers before the mechanical release, asymmetrical surface modification is feasible. Starting from silicon wafers, a treatment, such as KOH dipping or reactive ion etching (RIE), may be applied to make the surface rough. This helps remove the nucleation layer. A protective layer is then deposited on the wafer. The protective layer, such as silicon nitride film or photoresist film, protects the wafer from electrochemical etching in an HF-based solution. A lithography technique is applied to pattern the particles onto the protective film. The undesired area of the protective film is removed, and the protective film on the back side of the wafer is also removed. Then the pattern is exposed to HF/surfactant solution, and a larger DC electrical current is applied to the wafers for a selected time. This step removes the nucleation layer. Then a DC current is applied to generate the nanopores. Next, a large electrical current is applied to generate a release layer. The particles are mechanically suspended in the solvent and collected by filtration or centrifuge.

Ferrari, Mauro↗

Radiator heat rejection options for Shuttle payloads

The paper describes four separate advanced space radiator concepts that have been pursued in an integrated effort to develop multipayload use, low-cost heat rejection systems which can overcome the limitations of current radar systems. These four concepts are the following: (1) a wide heat load range, modularized space radiation system; (2) a heat rejection subsystem designed as a compact self-contained heat rejection module which provides a refrigeration cycle to accomodate a wide variation in payload heat loads and cooling temperature requirements; (3) a lightweight flexible fin radiator system with heat rejection capability; and (4) a radiator which does not require a circulating coolant on the radiator panel with heat pipes and thus particularly applies to very-long-duration free-flying payloads where long life reliability is an overriding design parameter. The Orbiter active thermal control system is briefly described.

Ellis, W. E.↗

Verification of performance results for a low-speed 15 percent elliptical circulation control airfoil

Low-speed wind tunnel tests performed by the Naval Ship Research and Development Center (NSRDC) on a circulation control airfoil model was repeated by the Joint Institute for Aerodynamics and Acoustics in an attempt to reproduce the performance results. The model used was a 15% ellipse with interchangeable trailing edges. Surface pressure measurements were taken to obtain lift and pitching moment coefficients as functions of jet blowing momentum, and the momentum deficit in the wake was measured and used to calculate the drag coefficient. The effects of spanwise slot height variation and of leading edge blowing on performance were also investigated. The performance results showed that of the three slot heights tested, a slot height/chord ratio of 0.0022 produced the most lift coefficient for a given blowing rate. Lift obtained in the current test ranged from 2 to 35% lower than the NSRDC test. However, the two data sets compared reasonably well considering wind tunnel and wall blowing scheme differences. The spanwise lift distribution showed less change in lift due to a variation in slot height than expected. The leading edge blowing results demonstrated that although lift initially decreased, a positive lift increment was possible at higher leading edge blowing rates.

Rodman, L. C.↗

NASA Scientific and Technical Information System (STI) and New Directory of Numerical Data Bases

The heart of NASA's STI system is a collection of scientific and technical information gathered from worldwide sources. Currently containing over 2.2 million items, the data base is growing at the rate of 140,000 items per year. In addition to announcement journals, information is disseminated through the NASA RECON on-line bibliographic search system. One part of RECON is NALNET which lists journals and books held by the NASA Centers. Another service now accessible by recon is a directory of numerical data bases (DND) which can be shared by NASA staff and contractors. The DND describes each data base and gives the name and phone number of a contact person. A NASA-wide integrated library system is being developed for the Center libraries which will include on-line catalog and subsystems for acquisition, circulation control, information retrieveal, management information, and an authority file. These subsystems can interact with on-line bibliographic, patron, and vendor files.

Wilson, J.↗

Managing Toxicological Risks: The Legacy of Shuttle Operations

Space toxicology greatly matured as a result of research and operations associated with the Shuttle. Materials offgassing had been a manageable concern since the Apollo days, but we learned to pay careful attention to compounds that could escape containment, to combustion events, to toxic propellants, to overuse of utility compounds, and to microbial and human metabolites. We also learned that flying real-time hardware to monitor air pollutants was a pathway with unanticipated speed bumps. Each new orbiter was tested for any excess offgassing products that could pollute the air during flight. In the late 1990s toxicologists and safety experts developed a 5-level toxicity rating system to guide containment of toxic compounds. This system is now in use aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Several combustion events during Shuttle Mir and also during Shuttle free-flight impelled toxicologists to identify hardware capable of monitoring toxic products; however, rapid adaptation of the hardware for the unique conditions of spaceflight caused unexpected missteps. Current and planned combustion analyzers would be useful to commercial partners that wish to manage the risk of health effects from thermal events. Propellants received special attention during the Shuttle program because of the possibility of bringing them into the habitable volume on extravehicular activity suits. Monitors for the airlocks were developed to mitigate this risk. Utility materials, such as lubricants, posed limited toxicological problems because water was not recovered. One clearly documented case of microbial metabolites polluting the Shuttle atmosphere was noted, and this has implications for commercial flights and control of microbes. Finally, carbon dioxide, the major human metabolite, episodically presented air quality problems aboard Shuttle, especially when nominal air flows were obstructed. Commercial vehicles must maintain robust air circulation given the anticipated high density of human occupants.

James, John T.↗

An Assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation During 1958-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-2 Simulations

In the framework of the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II), we present an analysis of the representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Southern Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) in a suite of seventeen global ocean-sea ice models. We focus on the mean, variability and trends of both the ACC and MOC over the 19582007 period, and discuss their relationship with the surface forcing. We aim to quantify the degree of eddy saturation and eddy compensation in the models participating in CORE-II, and compare our results with available observations, previous fine-resolution numerical studies and theoretical constraints. Most models show weak ACC transport sensitivity to changes in forcing during the past five decades, and they can be considered to be in an eddy saturated regime. Larger contrasts arise when considering MOC trends, with a majority of models exhibiting significant strengthening of the MOC during the late 20th and early 21st century. Only a few models show a relatively small sensitivity to forcing changes, responding with an intensified eddy-induced circulation that provides some degree of eddy compensation, while still showing considerable decadal trends. Both ACC and MOC interannual variability are largely controlled by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Based on these results, models are clustered into two groups. Models with constant or two-dimensional (horizontal) specification of the eddy-induced advection coefficient show larger ocean interior decadal trends, larger ACC transport decadal trends and no eddy compensation in the MOC. Eddy-permitting models or models with a three-dimensional time varying show smaller changes in isopycnal slopes and associated ACC trends, and partial eddy compensation. As previously argued, a constant in time or space is responsible for a poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects and cannot properly simulate the sensitivity of the ACC and MOC to changing surface forcing. Evidence is given for a larger sensitivity of the MOC as compared to the ACC transport, even when approaching eddy saturation. Future process studies designed for disentangling the role of momentum and buoyancy forcing in driving the ACC and MOC are proposed.

Southern Ocean dynamics↗

Solar Powered Automobile Interior Climate Control System

There is provided a climate control system for a parked vehicle that includes a solar panel, thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers. The solar panel can serve as the sole source of electricity for the system. The system affords convenient installation and removal by including solar panels that are removably attached to the exterior of a vehicle. A connecting wire electrically connects the solar panels to a housing that is removably mounted to a partially opened window on the vehicle. The thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers are included within the housing. The thermostatic switch alternates the direction of the current flow through the thermoelectric coolers to selectively heat or cool the interior of the vehicle. The interior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with interior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an interior fan. Similarly, the exterior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with exterior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an exterior fan.

Richard T Howard↗

Sea surface temperature anomalies, planetary waves, and air-sea feedback in the middle latitudes

Current analytical models for large-scale air-sea interactions in the middle latitudes are reviewed in terms of known sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The scales and strength of different atmospheric forcing mechanisms are discussed, along with the damping and feedback processes controlling the evolution of the SST. Difficulties with effective SST modeling are described in terms of the techniques and results of case studies, numerical simulations of mixed-layer variability and statistical modeling. The relationship between SST and diabatic heating anomalies is considered and a linear model is developed for the response of the stationary atmosphere to the air-sea feedback. The results obtained with linear wave models are compared with the linear model results. Finally, sample data are presented from experiments with general circulation models into which specific SST anomaly data for the middle latitudes were introduced.

Frankignoul, C.↗

Environmental Consequences of an Emerging Biosphere

It seems feasible to detect biological signatures ("biosignatures") in other planetary systems using the tools of astronomy. There are at least two types of biosignatures; spectral and/or polarization features created by biological products, and electromagnetic signals created by technology. The latter example of a biosignature requires SETI-like searches. This presentation addresses only spectral signatures of biological products and properties of habitable planets. Spectral biosignatures are indeed promising targets for near-term exploration. They can arise from organic constituents (e.g., vegetation) and/or inorganic products (e.g., atmospheric O2). Features originating from a planet's surface are likely to be localized in specific regions, whereas gaseous biosignatures can become globally distributed by atmospheric circulation. Biosignatures should be most abundant within environments that are, or once were, habitable. We currently believe that habitable environments necessarily provide Liquid water and biochemically useful energy. However, we do not yet fully comprehend the diversity of features that might arise within these environments that are non-biological in origin, yet mimic biosignatures. For example, atmospheres reflect the events leading to their origins as well as a host of ongoing planetary processes that might include biological activity. We are persuaded that abundant atmospheric oxygen in an environment with abundant liquid water constitutes definitive evidence of life. However, our own early biosphere thrived for more than a billion years in the absence of abundant atmospheric oxygen. The production of other, more reduced, gaseous biomarkers of "young" and/or anaerobic biospheres has not been systematically studied. Biological gas production is strongly controlled by the structure and function of microbial ecosystems. Investigations of microbial ecosystems that are close analogs of ancient communities offer multiple benefits. Such studies can interpret the production of the most important biomarker gases, while simultaneously helping us to understand the formidable array of ecological processes that guided early biological evolution. Astrobiologists must recognize those aspects of biosignatures that truly reflect the most fundamental, and therefore universal, properties of life. We must learn how the environment can modify biosignatures, and how technology can enable an array of biosignatures to be detected remotely within realistic budgetary constraints

DesMarais, David J.↗

Experimental Alteration of Basalt to Support Interpretation of Remote Sensing and In Situ Meausrements from Mars

Major occurrences of hydrous alteration minerals on Mars have been found in Noachian impact craters formed in basaltic targets and detected using visible/near infrared (VNIR) spectroscopy. Until recently phyllosilicates were detected only in craters in the southern hemisphere [1, 2]. However, it has been reported that at least nine craters in the northern plains apparently excavated thick layers of lava and sediment to expose phyllosilicates [3] as well. The MER (Mars Exploration Rovers) rovers previously reported results of in situ measurement indicating the presence of alteration minerals on Mars [4,5] and it was recently reported that the Mars Curiosity rover has detected alteration phases in situ at Yellowknife Bay in Gale crater as well [6,7]. An important discovery for Mars geochronology is that the Chemistry and Mineralogy (CheMin) x-ray diffraction (XRD) instrument on Curiosity detected phyllosilicates indicating that phyllosilicate formation on Mars extended beyond the Noachian Epoch [8]. These discoveries indicate that Mars was globally altered by water in the past but does not constrain formation conditions for alteration phase occurrences, which have important implications for the evolution of the surface and the biological potential on Mars. Understanding the alteration assemblages produced by a range of conditions is vital for the interpretation of phyllosilicate spectral signatures as well as in situ measurements and to decipher the environment and evolution of early Mars. The martian surface has been intensely altered by meteorite impacts whose effects include brecciation and melting of target materials as well as the initiation of hydrothermal circulation in a hydrous target [9,10,11,12]. Impact effects may facilitate aqueous alteration of a basaltic target because the rate of silicate dissolution is a function of the degree of crystallinity, surface area, and temperature. The resultant alteration mineralogies from shocked basaltic target material are a function of the original mineral assemblage in the parent rocks, the chemistry of fluids that interacted with the rocks, and physico-chemical conditions (pH, temperatures, and pressure) during the time of mineral formation. Understanding the alteration assemblages produced by a range of conditions is vital for the interpretation of phyllosilicate spectral signatures and to decipher the environment and evolution of early Mars, and especially for identifying habitable niches in which life could be initiated and sustained. No experimentally controlled and well characterized analog materials that simulate martian shock metamorphism and alteration conditions currently exist for calibrating either remote sensing or in situ measurements of Mars. A series of experiments was initiated to assess the effects of systematic changes in the physico-chemical conditions on Mars analog materials thereby providing samples to ground-truth Mars remote sensing observations from CRISM (Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars) and in situ measurements from Opportunity's Mössbauer and Curiosity's CHEMIN (Chemistry and Mineralogy X-Ray Diffraction/XRay Fluorescence) instruments. Results of initial experimental runs as analysed by SEM-EDS (Secondary Electron Microscopy -Energy Dispersive Spectroscopy) and X-ray Diffraction (XRD) analysis are reported here and lay the foundation for comparison with shocked and altered samples that will be characterized in the next phase of this work.

Bell, M. S.↗

Joint Assimilation of the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder and Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler Data: Towards a Reanalysis of Stratospheric Ozone for Trend Studies

The future trajectory of the stratospheric ozone recovery will be sensitive to greenhouse gas concentrations through thermal control of chemical loss and via stratospheric circulation changes. The latter in particular is subject to considerable uncertainty meriting continuing monitoring of the evolution of ozone throughout the depth of the stratosphere. Atmospheric reanalyses utilize the data assimilation methodology to obtain comprehensive representations of the state of the atmosphere, including its composition, on multidecadal scales by combining diverse measurements from satellite-borne and conventional data sources. Systematic biases among these various data types pose a challenge for assimilation by introducing spurious discontinuities that affect the utility of reanalyses for studies of long-term variability and trends.In this presentation we will outline an approach, developed at NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO), that allows joint assimilation of stratospheric ozone profiles from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on EOS Aura and the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite Limb Profiler (OMPS-LP) currently flying on the Suomi-NPP satellite with future missions projected into the 2030s. We will demonstrate that a simple offline correction significantly reduces biases between MLS and OMPS-LP ozone data providing a strategy for generating a long-term vertically resolved homogenized representation of stratospheric ozone in future reanalyses. One novel element of our approach compared to previous GMAO reanalysis is the use of a version of the Goddard Earth Observing System model with full stratospheric chemistry. We will show selected comparisons of MLS and OMPS-LP assimilation experiments with independent ozonesonde and satellite data as well as two examples of process-based evaluation focused on the 2016 QBO disruption and Arctic winter ozone loss focusing on the relative performance of the MLS and OMPS-LP analyses.

Wargan, K.↗

Comparison of Surface Fluxes Derived from CYGNSS and Simulated by WRF Model: An MJO Case Study

This study focuses on ocean surface fluxes, mainly the latent heat flux, and their impact on MJO propagation and associated precipitation structures over the Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent. The Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) model is used to simulate two MJO events during the 2017-2018 season: the December 10 - January 20, 2017 case, which maintained its strong precipitation signal over the Maritime Continent, and the March 1 - 20, 2018 case, which was weaker and did not propagate through the Maritime Continent. Both simulated MJO events show positive biases in surface rainfall compared with GPM IMERG data. During the MJO suppressed phase, the simulations rain more often than the observations. During the active phase, the westward propagating precipitation structures are more organized and much stronger compared with the observations, sometimes forming westward propagating cyclones that weakened the eastward precipitation signals. Two aspects of the surface flux interactions are investigated: the impact of the domain mean surface fluxes, and the impact of storm scale circulations and their interactions with local surface fluxes. Both aspects affect water vapor budget, atmosphere instability and mean flow, through which convection initiation, organization, and propagation are influenced. Model sensitivity tests with different radiation, microphysics, PBL schemes and nudging schemes indicate that in the control simulations, higher SST and surface fluxes, especially during the suppressed period, are the main reason of rainfall overestimation compared with IMERG data. The strong westward propagating signals are caused by both increased atmosphere instability and reduced mean wind shear. Unfortunately, the small differences in mean SST and surface fluxes between different model sensitivity tests are all within the satellite observation error margin, and cannot be directly corroborated by observations. One of the advantages of CYGNSS satellites is that they observe ocean surface wind and heat fluxes underneath strong rainfall events such as the convective systems associated with MJO active phases. Currently we are comparing CYGNSS level 2 surface fluxes retrievals and the model simulations in order to better understand the second aspect of the MJO and surface fluxes interactions, and how this affects MJO strengths and propagations. The interactive atmosphere-ocean-wave model also provides cases that directly comparing satellite observables (the bistatic radar cross section) and the model simulations (through CYGNSS satellite simulator). These discrepancies are more prominent in coupled ocean simulations, mainly due to higher SST and enhanced surface fluxes.

Li, Xiaowen↗

Auroral, Ionospheric and Ground Magnetic Signatures of Magnetopause Surface Modes

Surface waves on Earth's magnetopause have a controlling effect upon global magnetospheric dynamics. Since spacecraft provide sparse in situ observation points, remote sensing these modes using ground-based instruments in the polar regions is desirable. However, many open conceptual questions on the expected signatures remain. Therefore, we provide predictions of key qualitative features expected in auroral, ionospheric, and ground magnetic observations through both magnetohydrodynamic theory and a global coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere simulation of a magnetopause surface eigenmode. These show monochromatic oscillatory field-aligned currents (FACs), due to both the surface mode and its non-resonant Alfvén coupling, are present throughout the magnetosphere. The currents peak in amplitude at the equatorward edge of the magnetopause boundary layer, not the open-closed boundary as previously thought. They also exhibit slow poleward phase motion rather than being purely evanescent. We suggest the upward FAC perturbations may result in periodic auroral brightenings. In the ionosphere, convection vortices circulate the poleward moving FAC structures. Finally, surface mode signals are predicted in the ground magnetic field, with ionospheric Hall currents rotating perturbations by approximately (but not exactly) 90° compared to the magnetosphere. Thus typical dayside magnetopause surface modes should be strongest in the East-West ground magnetic field component. Overall, all ground-based signatures of the magnetopause surface mode are predicted to have the same frequency across L-shells, amplitudes that maximize near the magnetopause's equatorward edge, and larger latitudinal scales than for field line resonance. Implications in terms of ionospheric Joule heating and geomagnetically induced currents are discussed.

M. O. Archer↗

Closing the Seasonal Ocean Surface Temperature Balance in the Eastern Tropical Oceans from Remote Sensing and Model Reanalyses

The Eastern tropical ocean basins are regions of significant atmosphere-ocean interaction and are important to variability across subseasonal to decadal time scales. The numerous physical processes at play in these areas strain the abilities of coupled general circulation models to accurately reproduce observed upper ocean variability. Furthermore, limitations in the observing system of important terms in the surface temperature balance (e.g., turbulent and radiative heat fluxes, advection) introduce uncertainty into the analyses of processes controlling sea surface temperature variability. This study presents recent efforts to close the surface temperature balance through estimation of the terms in the mixed layer temperature budget using state-of-the-art remotely sensed and model-reanalysis derived products. A set of twelve net heat flux estimates constructed using combinations of radiative and turbulent heat flux products - including GEWEX-SRB, ISCCP-SRF, OAFlux, SeaFlux, among several others - are used with estimates of oceanic advection, entrainment, and mixed layer depth variability to investigate the seasonal variability of ocean surface temperatures. Particular emphasis is placed on how well the upper ocean temperature balance is, or is not, closed on these scales using the current generation of observational and model reanalysis products. That is, the magnitudes and spatial variability of residual imbalances are addressed. These residuals are placed into context within the current uncertainties of the surface net heat fluxes and the role of the mixed layer depth variability in scaling the impact of those uncertainties, particularly in the shallow mixed layers of the Eastern tropical ocean basins.

Roberts, J. Brent↗

Design Through Simulation of a Molecular Sieve Column for Treatment of MON-3

The presence of water in propellant-grade MON-3 is a concern in the Aerospace Industry. NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC), White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) Propulsion Department has evaluated many types of molecular sieves for control of iron, the corrosion product of water in Mixed Oxides of Nitrogen (MON-3). In 1995, WSTF initiated laboratory and pilot-scale testing of molecular sieve type 3A for removal of water and iron. These tests showed sufficient promise that a series of continuous recycle tests were conducted at WSTF. Periodic samples of the circulating MON-3 solution were analyzed for water (wt %) and iron (ppm, wt). This test column was modeled as a series of transfer units; i. e., each unit represented the height equivalent of a theoretical plate. Such a model assumes there is equilibrium between the adsorbent material and the effluent stream from the unit. Operational and design parameters were derived based on the simulation results. These parameters were used to predict the design characteristics of a proposed molecular sieve column for removal of water and iron from MON-3 at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In addition, these parameters were used to simulate a small, single-pass operation column at KSC currently used for treating MON-3. The results of this work indicated that molecular sieve type 3A in 1/16 in. diameter pellets, in a column 2.5 ft. in diameter, 18 ft. in height, and operated at 25 gpm is adequate for the required removal of water and iron from MON-3.

Swartz, A. Ben↗

Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Water Use and Yield of Irrigated Sugarcane in South Africa

Reliable predictions of climate change impacts on water use, irrigation requirements and yields of irrigated sugarcane in South Africa (a water-scarce country) are necessary to plan adaptation strategies. Although previous work has been done in this regard, methodologies and results vary considerably. The objectives were (1) to estimate likely impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields, water use and irrigation demand at three irrigated sugarcane production sites in South Africa (Malelane, Pongola and La Mercy) for current (1980-2010) and future (2070-2100) climate scenarios, using an approach based on the Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocols; and (2) to assess the suitability of this methodology for investigating climate change impacts on sugarcane production. Future climate datasets were generated using the Delta downscaling method and three Global Circulation Models (GCMs) assuming atmospheric CO2 concentration [CO2] of 734 ppm(A2 emissions scenario). Yield and water use were simulated using the DSSAT-Canegro v4.5 model. Irrigated cane yields are expected to increase at all three sites (between 11 and 14%), primarily due to increased interception of radiation as a result of accelerated canopy development. Evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements increased by 11% due to increased canopy cover and evaporative demand. Sucrose yields are expected to decline because of increased consumption of photo-assimilate for structural growth and maintenance respiration. Crop responses in canopy development and yield formation differed markedly between the crop cycles investigated. Possible agronomic implications of these results include reduced weed control costs due to shortened periods of partial canopy, a need for improved efficiency of irrigation to counter increased demands, and adjustments to ripening and harvest practices to counter decreased cane quality and optimize productivity. Although the Delta climate data downscaling method is considered robust, accurate and easily-understood, it does not change the future number of rain-days per month. The impacts of this and other climate data simplifications ought to be explored in future work. Shortcomings of the DSSAT-Canegro model include the simulated responses of phenological development, photosynthesis and respiration processes to high temperatures, and the disconnect between simulated biomass accumulation and expansive growth. Proposed methodology refinements should improve the reliability of predicted climate change impacts on sugarcane yield.

Climate change↗

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Hewitson, Bruce↗