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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Drivers of Water Use in the Agricultural Sector of the European Union 27

Population growth and the uncertain hazards that accompany climate change have put increasing pressure on the management and sustainability of water. It has a direct impact on agriculture and its domestic and international supply chain linkages. As one of the largest agricultural producers in the world, the European Union (EU) is particularly sensitive to changes in water availability. Therefore, here we perform a structural decomposition analysis based on the recently released EXIOBASE 3 database to examine in depth how changes in water input coefficients, in final demand and in technology have affected changes in water use across crops. Crop production consumes 99% of the direct water in agriculture. Our results show that the largest EU crop producers have experienced an increase in water use that is mostly driven by changes in technology. On the other hand, several Mediterranean countries, where water scarcity has been a problem for years, have decreased their water consumption mostly thanks to an improvement in their water intensity. Results by crop are consistent with those at the aggregated level except for vegetables of which water use changes have been primarily driven by changes in final demand and water intensity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimating Fresh Water Needs to Meet Future Thermoelectric Generation Requirements and Program Water Saving Benefits (2022 Update)

Freshwater availability is operationally critical for thermoelectric power plants. Trends indicating a growing population, along with increasing threats stemming from the changing climate could possibly set off water scarcity issues for U.S. thermoelectric generation in scarcity-prone regions in the country. This report is an update to a previous water needs analysis which was conducted in 2020 by the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE/NETL).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Detecting Important Drivers of Gridded Population Modeling With Machine Learning

High-resolution population datasets have been lever-aged across a broad swath of domains, such as climate change, public policy, humanitarian aid, and rescue operations, among others. Machine learning methods were adopted to generate high-resolution or gridded population estimates by using various geospatial input features such as buildings, roads, and nighttime lights. In this study, we evaluate the importance of population features using Random Forest models across three levels of analysis, utilizing permutation measures. Our research aims to address key questions to enhance our understanding of high-resolution population modeling, such as: Are certain features globally (10 countries collectively) more important than others? Do optimal features vary by country? Within each country, do feature importance differ across administrative units? What similarities exist in feature importance at the global, country, and administrative unit levels? To answer these questions, we leverage the Kneedle algorithm to automate the selection of optimum features. We find that there are patterns displayed by features across spatial boundaries, evidenced by the same feature being the most important indicator of population across 7 of the 10 countries modeled. Our findings indicate that while important features may vary across geographies, certain features consistently hold greater importance than others agnostic of geography.

Lebakula, Viswadeep [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000152935914↗
DOE OSTI2022

Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey

Climate change is already increasing the severity of extreme weather events such as with rainfall during hurricanes. But little research to date investigates if, and to what extent, there are social inequalities in climate change-attributed extreme weather event impacts. Here, we use climate change attribution science paired with hydrological flood models to estimate climate change-attributed flood depths and damages during Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. Using detailed land-parcel and census tract socio-economic data, we then describe the socio-spatial characteristics associated with these climate change-induced impacts. We show that 30 to 50% of the flooded properties would not have flooded without climate change. Climate change-attributed impacts were particularly felt in Latina/x/o neighborhoods, and especially so in Latina/x/o neighborhoods that were low-income and among those located outside of FEMA’s 100-year floodplain. Our focus is thus on climate justice challenges that not only concern future climate change-induced risks, but are already affecting vulnerable populations disproportionately now.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Resilience of Urban Transport Network-of-Networks under Intense Flood Hazards Exacerbated by Targeted Attacks

Natural hazards including floods can trigger catastrophic failures in interdependent urban transport network-of-networks (NoNs). Population growth has enhanced transportation demand while urbanization and climate change have intensified urban floods. However, despite the clear need to develop actionable insights for improving the resilience of critical urban lifelines, the theory and methods remain underdeveloped. Furthermore, as infrastructure systems become more intelligent, security experts point to the growing threat of targeted cyber-physical attacks during natural hazards. Here we develop a hypothesis-driven resilience framework for urban transport NoNs, which we demonstrate on the London Rail Network (LRN). We find that topological attributes designed for maximizing efficiency rather than robustness render the network more vulnerable to compound natural-targeted disruptions including cascading failures. Our results suggest that an organizing principle for post-disruption recovery may be developed with network science principles. Our findings and frameworks can generalize to urban lifelines and more generally to real-world spatial networks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Directions for Chemical Engineering

Over the past century, the work of chemical engineers has helped transform societies and the lives of individuals, from the synthetic fertilizers that helped feed the world to the development of novel materials used in fuels, electronics, medical devices, and other products. Chemical engineers' ability to apply systems-level thinking from molecular to manufacturing scales uniquely positions them to address today’s most pressing problems, including climate change and the overuse of resources by a growing population. New Directions for Chemical Engineering details a vision to guide chemical engineering research, innovation, and education over the next few decades. This report calls for new investments in U.S. chemical engineering and the interdisciplinary, cross-sector collaborations necessary to advance the societal goals of transitioning to a low-carbon energy system, ensuring our production and use of food and water is sustainable, developing medical advances and engineering solutions to health equity, and manufacturing with less waste and pollution. The report also calls for changes in chemical engineering education to ensure the next generation of chemical engineers is more diverse and equipped with the skills necessary to address the challenges ahead.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and M↗
DOE OSTI2020

Urban Scaling as Validation for Predictions of Imperviousness From Population

Abstract Strategies for creating quantitative projections for human systems, especially impervious surfaces, are necessary to consider the human drivers of climate and ecosystem change. There are models that generate predictions of how impervious surfaces may change in response to different potential futures, but few tools exist for validating those predictions. We seek to fill that gap. We demonstrate a statistically robust sublinear scaling relationship between population and urban imperviousness across a 15 year history. We show that Integrated Climate and Land‐Use Scenarios (ICLUS) urbanization projections are also consistent with theory. These results demonstrate a theory that can be used to validate other models' predictions of urban growth and land cover change, analogous to the ways in which allometric scaling laws in biology have been used to validate process‐based models of ecosystem composition under different climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Natural soil microbiome variation affects spring foliar phenology with consequences for plant productivity and climate-driven range shifts

Identifying the potential for natural soil microbial communities to predictably affect complex plant traits is an important frontier in climate change research. Plant phenology varies with environmental and genetic factors, but few studies have examined if the soil microbiome interacts with plant population differentiation to affect phenology and ecosystem function. We compared soil microbial variation in a widespread tree species (Populus angustifolia) with different soil inoculum treatments in a common garden environment to test how the soil microbiome affects spring foliar phenology and subsequent biomass growth. We hypothesized and show that: 1) soil bacterial and fungal communities vary with tree conditioning from different populations and elevations, 2) this soil community variation influences patterns of foliar phenology and plant growth across populations and elevation gradients, and 3) transferring lower elevation plant genotypes to higher elevation soil communities delayed foliar phenology, thereby shortening the growing season and reducing annual biomass production. Our findings show the importance of plant-soil interactions that help shape the timing of tree foliar phenology and productivity. Here, these geographic patterns in plant population x microbiome interactions also broaden our understanding of how soil communities impact plant phenotypic variation across key climate change gradients, with consequences for ecosystem functioning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multisectoral analysis of drought impacts and management responses to the 2008–2015 record drought in the Colorado Basin, Texas

Abstract. Drought has long posed an existential threat to society. Engineering and technological advancements have enabled the development of complex, interconnected water supply systems that buffer societies from the impacts of drought, enabling growth and prosperity. However, increasing water demand from population growth and economic development, combined with more extreme and prolonged droughts due to climate change, poses significant challenges for governments in the 21st century. Improved understanding of the cascading multisectoral impacts and adaptive responses resulting from extreme drought can aid in adaptive planning and highlight key processes in modeling drought impacts. The record drought spanning 2008 to 2015 in the Colorado Basin in the state of Texas, United States, serves as an outstanding illustration to assess multisectoral impacts and responses to severe, multi-year drought. The basin faces similar water security challenges to those across the western US, such as groundwater depletion and sustainability, resource competition between agriculture and growing urban populations, limited options for additional reservoir expansion, and the heightened risk of more severe and frequent droughts due to climate change. By analyzing rich, high-quality data sourced from nine different local, state, and federal sources, we demonstrate that characterizing regional multisector dynamics is crucial to predicting and understanding future vulnerability and possible approaches to reduce impacts to human and natural systems in the face of extreme drought conditions. This review reveals that, despite the severe hydrometeorological conditions of the drought, the region's advanced economy and existing water infrastructure effectively mitigated economic and societal impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Range-wide population assessments for subalpine fir indicate widespread disturbance-driven decline

Subalpine forests in western North America are threatened by rapid climate change, increased activity by endemic and exotic insects and diseases, and changing wildfire regimes. The interactive effects of these stressors have resulted in pronounced population declines in many subalpine tree species; however, a systematic assessment of the status and trends of subalpine forests is lacking. Subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa) is a widespread species across the western United States, with documented population declines in many parts of its distribution. Here we use subalpine fir as an initial leverage point to build a more complete understanding of subalpine forest baseline conditions and responses to environmental change. Specifically, we leverage the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) database to (1) ask how subalpine fir populations are changing across the species’ distribution in the western US, (2) assess the drivers of recent subalpine fir population trends, and (3) explore whether those changes imply generalized species-wide and/or system-wide decline. We found that subalpine fir abundance and basal area are declining concurrently across ~ 62% of the species’ distribution, and increasing across ~ 19%. Range-wide, we estimated 25.02 ± 2.74 % subalpine fir mortality between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019 FIA inventory periods, with higher mortality concentrated in the eastern Oregon Cascades, central Idaho, and parts of southern Colorado. High regeneration density did not predict positive population trajectories, which were instead associated with higher rates of adult recruitment. While the importance of different mortality agents varied substantially between ecoregions, 83.4% of total range-wide mortality was related to fire or biological disturbance. Declining subalpine fir basal area coincided with declines in the basal area of other co-occurring tree species in 39% of subalpine forest area, and with increases in conspecific basal area in 22% of forest area. Fire disturbance was the single largest cause of subalpine fir mortality; however, even where subalpine fir fire mortality was high, mortality among other species was primarily caused by insects. In conclusion, our results suggest that subalpine fir declines across large portions of the western United States are driven by forest disturbance, and that declines in subalpine fir populations may be indicative of negative change in subalpine forest systems broadly.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbon nanotube biocompatibility in plants is determined by their surface chemistry

Abstract Background Agriculture faces significant global challenges including climate change and an increasing food demand due to a growing population. Addressing these challenges will require the adoption of transformative innovations into biotechnology practice, such as nanotechnology. Recently, nanomaterials have emerged as unmatched tools for their use as biosensors, or as biomolecule delivery vehicles. Despite their increasingly prolific use, plant-nanomaterial interactions remain poorly characterized, drawing into question the breadth of their utility and their broader environmental compatibility. Results Herein, we characterize the response of Arabidopsis thaliana to single walled carbon nanotube (SWNT) exposure with two different surface chemistries commonly used for biosensing and nucleic acid delivery: oligonucleotide adsorbed-pristine SWNTs, and polyethyleneimine-SWNTs loaded with plasmid DNA (PEI-SWNTs), both introduced by leaf infiltration. We observed that pristine SWNTs elicit a mild stress response almost undistinguishable from the infiltration process, indicating that these nanomaterials are well-tolerated by the plant. However, PEI-SWNTs induce a much larger transcriptional reprogramming that involves stress, immunity, and senescence responses. PEI-SWNT-induced transcriptional profile is very similar to that of mutant plants displaying a constitutive immune response or treated with stress-priming agrochemicals. We selected molecular markers from our transcriptomic analysis and identified PEI as the main cause of this adverse reaction. We show that PEI-SWNT response is concentration-dependent and, when persistent over time, leads to cell death. We probed a panel of PEI variant-functionalized SWNTs across two plant species and identified biocompatible SWNT surface functionalizations. Conclusions While SWNTs themselves are well tolerated by plants, SWNTs surface-functionalized with positively charged polymers become toxic and produce cell death. We use molecular markers to identify more biocompatible SWNT formulations. Our results highlight the importance of nanoparticle surface chemistry on their biocompatibility and will facilitate the use of functionalized nanomaterials for agricultural improvement. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advance Local Mobility Through Energy Efficient Mobility Systems Technologies

Everyone deserves reliable, affordable, and safe transportation to connect people to jobs, healthcare, education, and recreation. Our transportation systems are interconnected, multimodal networks working together to move people and goods. These systems are dynamic and are being reshaped by factors such as population trends, new technologies, shifting labor models, economic forces, and changing climate. Energy efficient mobility systems (EEMS) technologies can help transportation planners ensure changes in our transportation systems are equitable and sustainable by improving energy efficiency, travel time, and affordability, as well as overall access to mobility. Transportation planners and decision makers can use the following EEMS tools and strategies to advance local mobility.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Climate change drives convergent evolution of root traits on Sky Island climate relicts

Roots are essential to the strategies plants use to survive in variable environments, yet we know little of how they vary within species. Experimental conditions demonstrate that intraspecific plant root traits respond strongly to variation in the environment; however, it is unclear when these responses can be characterized as evolution in response to selective pressures of climate change over many generations. Sky Islands are model, natural climate relict ecosystems to examine climate-change driven evolution. Utilizing a common garden with replicate genotypes of Populus angustifolia (Narrowleaf cottonwood) from six Sky Island (SI) populations and nine adjacent Mountain Chain (MC) populations across three genetic provenances, we hypothesized that SI root traits have diverged due to historical isolation in warmer, drier climates. When grown in common conditions, populations originating on SI’s showed convergent evolution across three distinct genetic provenances, which was characterized by 44.16% decreased total root length, 42.64% decreased average root volume, 43.31% decreased root surface area, and significantly less root trait variation, relative to adjacent mountain chains. Convergent evolution of root traits from trees originating on SI’s is correlated with changes in mean annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in the field over the past ~ 125 years. These results demonstrate a consistent pattern in root trait evolution at the landscape scale and the role of climate on the evolution of root traits in a genetic and geographic context relevant to climate change.

Convergent evolution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Minnesota peat viromes reveal terrestrial and aquatic niche partitioning for local and global viral populations

Abstract Background Peatlands are expected to experience sustained yet fluctuating higher temperatures due to climate change, leading to increased microbial activity and greenhouse gas emissions. Despite mounting evidence for viral contributions to these processes in peatlands underlain with permafrost, little is known about viruses in other peatlands. More generally, soil viral biogeography and its potential drivers are poorly understood at both local and global scales. Here, 87 metagenomes and five viral size-fraction metagenomes (viromes) from a boreal peatland in northern Minnesota (the SPRUCE whole-ecosystem warming experiment and surrounding bog) were analyzed for dsDNA viral community ecological patterns, and the recovered viral populations (vOTUs) were compared with our curated PIGEON database of 266,125 vOTUs from diverse ecosystems. Results Within the SPRUCE experiment, viral community composition was significantly correlated with peat depth, water content, and carbon chemistry, including CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, but not with temperature during the first 2 years of warming treatments. Peat vOTUs with aquatic-like signatures (shared predicted protein content with marine and/or freshwater vOTUs) were significantly enriched in more waterlogged surface peat depths. Predicted host ranges for SPRUCE vOTUs were relatively narrow, generally within a single bacterial genus. Of the 4326 SPRUCE vOTUs, 164 were previously detected in other soils, mostly peatlands. None of the previously identified 202,371 marine and freshwater vOTUs in our PIGEON database were detected in SPRUCE peat, but 0.4% of 80,714 viral clusters (VCs, grouped by predicted protein content) were shared between soil and aquatic environments. On a per-sample basis, vOTU recovery was 32 times higher from viromes compared with total metagenomes. Conclusions Results suggest strong viral “species” boundaries between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and to some extent between peat and other soils, with differences less pronounced at higher taxonomic levels. The significant enrichment of aquatic-like vOTUs in more waterlogged peat suggests that viruses may also exhibit niche partitioning on more local scales. These patterns are presumably driven in part by host ecology, consistent with the predicted narrow host ranges. Although more samples and increased sequencing depth improved vOTU recovery from total metagenomes, the substantially higher per-sample vOTU recovery after viral particle enrichment highlights the utility of soil viromics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Microgrid design and multi-year dispatch optimization under climate-informed load and renewable resource uncertainty

Microgrids are an increasingly popular solution to provide energy resilience in response to increasing grid dependency and the growing impacts of climate change on grid operations. However, existing microgrid models do not currently consider the uncertain and long-term impacts of climate change when determining a set of design and operational decisions to minimize long-term costs or meet a resilience threshold. In this paper, we develop a novel scenario generation method that accounts for the uncertain effects of (i) climate change on variable renewable energy availability, (ii) extreme heat events on site load, and (iii) population and electrification trends on load growth. Additionally, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming extension of an existing microgrid design and dispatch optimization model to obtain uncertainty-informed and climate-resilient energy system decisions that minimizes long-term costs. Use of sample average approximation to validate our two case studies illustrates that the proposed methodology produces high-quality solutions that add resilience to systems with existing backup generation while reducing expected long-term costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Synergistic effects of climate warming and atmospheric nutrient deposition on the alpine lake ecosystem in the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Anthropocene

Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are highly sensitive to global change and have been recognized as the sentinel of climate warming. However, anthropogenic impacts in populated area are migrating to these remote areas via transporting particulate nutrients by atmospheric deposition. Whether warming and nutrient deposition would impose additive or synergistic effects on the lake ecosystem remains largely unknown. Here, we present multi-proxy (sediment pigment and geochemistry) records during the past two centuries at the Cuoqia Lake in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. We found that the lake exhibited rapid ecological changes since 1980 AD characterized by an increase in primary productivity due to algal proliferation, with more rapid growth of green algae and diatoms. These findings are in concert with many other lakes (e.g., Moon Lake and Shade Co) in the same area, suggesting a consistent pattern of ecosystem evolution at the region scale. Statistical analyses suggested that nutrient deposition and climate warming were strongly associated with the variations in primary productivity and algae composition, exerting both individual and interactive effects. In addition, scenario analyses with a well-established process-based ecosystem model further revealed that the two factors not only individually, but also synergistically promoted the algal proliferation and community succession. Such synergy is evident in that the effect of lake warming would be more pronounced under higher nutrient deposition scenario, which is potentially due to higher temperature-driven mineralization in warmer conditions, and higher efficiency of nutrient utilization under enhanced light availability attributing to declining ice thickness and duration in cold seasons. Overall, our study proposes the existence and quantifies the synergistic impacts of climate warming and anthropogenic activities in driving the ecological changes in remote alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The lake ecological consequences driven by individual factor would be worsen by such synergy, so that we cannot predict the lake ecosystem trajectory in the future based on each factor separately, and more efforts than previously expected would be needed for the lake restoration and management.

Zhang, Can↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate Change Risks to Freshwater Subsistence Fisheries in Arctic Alaska: Insights and Uncertainty from Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus

Arctic freshwater ecosystems and fish populations are largely shaped by seasonal and long-term watershed hydrology. In this paper, we hypothesize how changing air temperature and precipitation will alter freeze and thaw processes, hydrology, and instream habitat to assess potential indirect effects, such as the change to the foraging and behavioral ecology, on Arctic fishes, using Broad Whitefish Coregonus nasus as an indicator species. Climate change is expected to continue to alter hydrologic pathways, flow regimes, and, therefore, habitat suitability, connectivity, and availability for fishes. Warming and lengthening of the growing season will likely increase fish growth rates; however, the exceedance of threshold stream temperatures will likely increase physiological stress and alter life histories. We expect these changes to have mixed effects on Arctic subsistence fishes and fisheries. Management and conservation approaches focused on preserving the processes that create heterogeneity in aquatic habitats, genes, and communities will help maintain the resilience of Broad Whitefish and other important subsistence fisheries. Long-term effects are uncertain, so filling scientific knowledge gaps, such as identifying important habitats or increasing knowledge of abiotic variables in priority watersheds, is key to understanding and potentially mitigating likely impacts to Arctic fishes in a rapidly changing landscape.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Envisioning urban environments resilient to vector-borne diseases: a protocol to study dengue in Vietnam

Transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti (Ae. aegypti) and Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus), arboviral diseases pose a major global public health threat. Dengue, chikungunya, and zika are increasingly prevalent in Southeast Asia. Among other arboviruses, dengue and zika are becoming more common in Central and South America. Given human encroachment into previously uninhabited, often deforested areas, to provide new housing in regions of population expansion, conceptualizing built urban environments in a novel way is urgently needed to safeguard against the growing climate change-driven threat of vector-borne diseases. By understanding the spread from a One Health perspective, enhanced control and prevention can be achieved. This is particularly important considering that climate change is likely to significantly impact the persistence of ponded water where mosquitoes breed due to increasing temperature and shifting rainfall patterns with regard to magnitude, duration, frequency, and season. Models can incorporate aquatic mosquito stages and adult spatial dynamics when habitats are heterogeneously available, thereby including dispersal and susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) epidemiology. Coupled with human population distribution (density, locations), atmospheric conditions (air temperature, precipitation), and hydrological conditions (soil moisture distribution, ponding persistence in topographic depressions), modeling has improved predictive ability for infection rates. However, it has not informed interventional approaches from an urban environment perspective which considers the role of ponds/lakes that support green spaces, the density of population that enables rapid spread of disease, and varying micro-habitats for various mosquito stages under climate change. Here, for an example of dengue in Vietnam, a preventive and predictive approach to design resilient urban environments is proposed, which uses data from rapidly expanding metropolitan communities to learn continually. This protocol deploys computational approaches including simulation and machine learning/artificial intelligence, underpinned by surveillance and medical data for validation and adaptive learning. Its application may best inform urban planning in low-middle income countries in tropical zones where arboviral pathogens are prevalent.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗