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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Estimating Mangrove Aboveground Biomass from Airborne LiDAR Data: a Case Study from the Zambezi River Delta

Mangroves are ecologically and economically important forested wetlands with the highest carbon (C) density of all terrestrial ecosystems. Because of their exceptionally large C stocks and importance as a coastal buffer, their protection and restoration has been proposed as an effective mitigation strategy for climate change. The inclusion of mangroves in mitigation strategies requires the quantification of C stocks (both above and belowground) and changes to accurately calculate emissions and sequestration. A growing number of countries are becoming interested in using mitigation initiatives, such as REDD+ (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation), in these unique coastal forests. However, it is not yet clear how methods to measure C traditionally used for other ecosystems can be modified to estimate biomass in mangroves with the precision and accuracy needed for these initiatives. Airborne Lidar (ALS) data has often been proposed as the most accurate way for larger scale assessments but the application of ALS for coastal wetlands is scarce, primarily due to a lack of contemporaneous ALS and field measurements. Here, we evaluated the variability in field and Lidar-based estimates of aboveground biomass (AGB) through the combination of different local and regional allometric models and standardized height metrics that are comparable across spatial resolutions and sensor types, the end result being a simplified approach for accurately estimating mangrove AGB at large scales and determining the uncertainty by combining multiple allometric models.We then quantified wall-to-wall AGB stocks of a tall mangrove forest in the Zambezi Delta, Mozambique. Our results indicate that the Lidar H100 height metric correlates well with AGB estimates, with R(exp 2) between 0.80 and 0.88 and RMSE of 33% or less. When comparing Lidar H100 AGB derived from three allometric models, mean AGB values range from 192 Mg ha(exp −1) up to 252 Mg ha(exp −1).We suggest the best model to predict AGB was based on the East Africa specific allometry and a power-based regression that used Lidar H100 as the height input with an R(exp 2) of 0.85 and an RMSE of 122 Mg ha(exp −1) or 33%. The total AGB of the Lidar inventoried mangrove area (6654 ha) was 1 350 902 Mg with a mean AGB of 203 Mg ha(exp −1) +/-166 Mg ha(exp −1). Because the allometry suggested here was developed using standardized height metrics, it is recommended that the models can generate AGB estimates using other remote sensing instruments that are more readily accessible over other mangrove ecosystems on a large scale, and as part of future carbon monitoring efforts in mangroves.

Fatoyinbo, Temilola↗
NASA NTRS2013

Prevented Mortality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Historical and Projected Nuclear Power

In the aftermath of the March 2011 accident at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the future contribution of nuclear power to the global energy supply has become somewhat uncertain. Because nuclear power is an abundant, low-carbon source of base-load power, it could make a large contribution to mitigation of global climate change and air pollution. Using historical production data, we calculate that global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths and 64 gigatonnes of CO2-equivalent (GtCO2-eq) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have resulted from fossil fuel burning. On the basis of global projection data that take into account the effects of the Fukushima accident, we find that nuclear power could additionally prevent an average of 420 000−7.04 million deaths and 80−240 GtCO2-eq emissions due to fossil fuels by midcentury, depending on which fuel it replaces. By contrast, we assess that large-scale expansion of unconstrained natural gas use would not mitigate the climate problem and would cause far more deaths than expansion of nuclear power.

nuclear power plants↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Managing Traffic on the Three-Way Street: Steps Toward Closing the Aerosol Forcing Uncertainty Gap

Understanding changes in the radiative forcing of climate is critical for any effort to attribute, mitigate, or predict climate change. Although greenhouse gases (GHGs) contribute most of the radiative forcing, uncertainty in the climate forcing by airborne particles (aerosols) dominates the uncertainty in forcing changes overall. Yet, aerosol forcing has remained virtually undiminished for more than 20 years despite considerable advances in most of the key contributing elements. Satellite and suborbital measurements, as well as modeling, each have essential roles to play in reducing the uncertainty in the aerosol forcing of climate. This presentation will begin by briefly covering the reasons why aerosols are important for climate study, and will then summarize what we are learning about aerosols from current satellite remote-sensing work, and allude to the roles of suborbital measurements and models. Emphasis will be placed on nascent efforts to link satellite data with models, the need to continue as planned current programs supporting advanced, global-scale satellite and surface-based aerosol and precursor gas observations, climate modeling, as well as intensive field campaigns aimed at characterizing the underlying physical and chemical processes involved. The talk will conclude by highlighting new efforts needed to obtain systematic in situ measurements of aerosol microphysical and chemical properties, along with a greater research focus on integrating the unique contributions of measurements and modeling toward reducing the aerosol climate forcing uncertainty gap.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessment of Quantum ML Applicability for Climate Actions: Comparison of the Variational Quantum Classifier and the Quantum Support Vector Classifier with Classical ML Models

Climate change refers to significant and long-term alterations in the Earth’s climate patterns, typically resulting from human activities that increase greenhouse gas emissions. Addressing climate change is not merely an option but a necessity, demanding creative solutions and efforts from individuals, researchers, communities, and governments. Despite the capabilities of machine learning (ML) with data-driven solutions promising to combat climate change-related problems, they face challenges stemming from traditional computational methods and prolonged training times, impeding their practical utility. Recent strides in quantum computing have permeated diverse domains, spanning from manufacturing engineering and pharmaceutical discovery to the latest frontier of detecting climate anomalies. With the potential to substantially reduce time and computational complexity, quantum computing shows promise in addressing climate change impacts. Its distinctive features will enable the concurrent exploration of expansive solution spaces, making it well-suited for analyzing extensive climate datasets, simulating intricate climate models, optimizing resource allocation, and discerning patterns in climate data for mitigation and adaptation endeavors. This study explores the potential of using Quantum machine learning (QML) techniques on climate and weather data obtained from NASA Giovannis. We used two QML algorithms, the Quantum Support Vector Classifier (QSVC) and the Variational Quantum Classifier (VQC) models, using the IBM Qiskit ML 0.7.2 ecosystem. We used an actual 127-Qubit IBM Quantum Computer (IBM 127-qubit Eagle) in this study. The methodology and results sections describe the experiences gained from applying and evaluating quantum ML results on climate and weather data obtained from NASA satellites as a novel practical application of quantum computing.

Earth Observational Data↗
NASA NTRS2018

Action Pathways for Transforming Cities

Transformation is required for cities to fulfil their leadership potential on climate change. Five action pathways can guide them: integrate mitigation and adaptation; coordinate risk reduction and climate adaptation; cogenerate risk information; focus on disadvantaged populations; and improve governance and knowledge networks.

Civil engineering↗
NASA NTRS2022

Sea Level Rise and City-Level Climate Action

Background: Climate change is the greatest threat to global health in the 21st century. Rising sea levels are one particularly concerning manifestation of this and many of the world’s largest cities are vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR). Thus, urban climate adaptation and mitigation policies are increasingly important to protect population health. Objectives: This study aimed to determine whether being at risk of SLR was associated with city-level climate action. It also aimed to assess the wider drivers of climate action in cities, in order to guide ongoing efforts to motivate climate action, assess public health preparedness and identify research gaps. Methods: This is an ecological cross-sectional study using secondary data from CDP, the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), World Bank, United Nations Cities and EM-DAT (Emergency Events Database). The study population consisted of 517 cities who participated in CDP’s 2019 Cities Survey. Multivariable logistic regression was utilized to assess the relationship between risk of SLR and city-level climate action, and secondly, to assess the wider determinants of city-level climate action. Results: There was evidence of crude associations between risk of SLR and three outcome variables representing city-level climate action. However, after adjusting for confounding variables, these crude associations disappeared. World region, national income status and urban population were shown to be stronger predictors of city-level climate action. Conclusion: It is concerning for population health that there is no association demonstrated between risk of SLR and climate action. This could indicate a lack of awareness of the risks posed by SLR within urban governance. To fulfil their health protection responsibilities, it is essential that public health professionals take a leading role in advocating for climate action.

sea level rise↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Benefits of Incorporating Shipping Containers into the Climate Change Adaption Plans at NASA Wallops Flight Facility

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has several centers and facilities located near the coast that are undoubtedly susceptible to climate change. One of those facilities is Wallops Flight Facility on the Eastern Shore of Virginia which is separated into three areas: Main Base, Mainland, and the Island. Wallops Island has numerous buildings and assets that are vulnerable to flood inundation, intense storms, and storm surge. The shoreline of Wallops Island is prone to beach erosion and is slated for another beach replenishment project in 2019. In addition, current climate projections for NASAs centers and facilities, conducted by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators, warn of inevitable increases in annual temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, and extreme events such as heat waves. The aforementioned vulnerabilities Wallops Island faces in addition to the projections of future climate change reveal an urgency for NASA to adjust how new buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast are built to adapt to the inevitable effects of climate change. Although the agency has made strides to mitigate the effects of climate change by incorporating L.E.E.D. into new buildings that produce less greenhouse gas, the strides for the agency to institute clear climate adaptation policies for the buildings at its centers and facilities near the coast seem to lag behind. As NASA continues to formulate formidable climate change adaptation plans for its centers and facilities, an architectural trend that should be examined for its potential to replace several old buildings at Wallops Island is shipping containers buildings. Shipping containers or Intermodal Steel Building Units offer an array of benefits such as strength, durability, versatility, modular, and since they can be upcycled, they are also eco-friendly. Some disadvantages of shipping containers are they contain harmful chemicals, insulation must be added, fossil fuels must be used to transport them to the site, and multiple ISBUs are needed. However, the benefits of shipping container buildings could be utilized at NASA centers or facilities near the coast such as Wallops Island on new buildings that are designed to adapt to the impending effects of climate change. Thus, this Masters Research Project will explore how those benefits can be incorporated into the climate change adaptation plans at Wallops Island and make recommendations for policy guidelines and shipping container buildings specific to Wallops Island.

Sustainable Design↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Earth System Observatory Formulation Progress

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey by the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine identified five foundational observations, or Designated Observables (DO), to be implemented as missions by NASA. To address these five DO areas – Surface Biology and Geology; Mass Change; Aerosols; Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation; and Surface Deformation and Change – NASA is developing the Earth System Observatory (ESO) as an array of Earth-focused, interconnected satellite missions. The ESO will build on the strong history of international partnerships in NASA Earth science, with initial participation and collaboration on these missions across space agency partners including the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), and Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI). Targeting launch dates in the late 2020s and early 2030s, the ESO will work as a single observatory, with each satellite in the ESO delivering its own valuable information, but taken together, the data and imagery will provide the global community with a multidimensional, holistic view of the Earth. In addition to furthering the world’s scientific knowledge, data gathered by ESO missions will provide actionable science to inform decisions related to climate change, disaster mitigation, and wildfires, improve real-time agricultural processes, and many other applications. This paper will provide an overview of the ESO development activities, as well as an update on the individual ESO missions currently in formulation – Atmosphere Observing System, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment-Continuity, and Surface Biology and Geology – including current mission architectures and concepts, international partner collaboration, science community engagement, and applications efforts, as well as how ESO data will be freely open and accessible to users all over the world.

NASA Earth Science↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation (ACCP) Observing System

NASA’s new Earth System Observatory (ESO) will provide key information related to understanding climate change processes, mitigating natural hazards, fighting forest fires, and improving real-time agricultural processes. The ACCP observing system will address two of the five major focus areas: aerosols, which determine air quality and affect the global energy balance, a key source of uncertainty in predicting climate change; and clouds, convection, and precipitation, whose processes are also a large source of uncertainty in future projections of climate change as well as predictions of severe weather. ACCP, currently in the concept investigation phase, is made up of two projects, one in an inclined orbit and the other in a polar orbit, with both projects addressing synergistic A and CCP science. Suborbital science is also a significant element of ACCP. This talk will describe the science objectives of ACCP and their relationship to the 2017 NASA Earth Science Decadal Survey as well as summarize the orbital architecture and major science activities during the concept investigation phase.

Scott Braun↗
NASA NTRS2021

Optimizing GRACE/GRACE-FO Data and A priori Hydrological Knowledge for Improved Global Terrestial Water Storage Component Estimates

The comprehensive information of global terrestrial water storage (TWS) components (soil moisture, groundwater, snow, surface water) is essential for effective assessment of water resource availability, climate variation, and disaster mitigation measures. Observational data provided by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On satellite missions offer global TWS variation (ΔTWS) in terms of an integrated water column. However, GRACE spatial resolution is relatively coarse (i.e., 3°), and the vertically integrated value cannot be separated into ΔTWS components directly. This study demonstrates the feasibility to estimate ΔTWS components at any desired spatial-vertical resolution by effectively maintaining the native resolution of the employed hydrological knowledge. It utilizes a least-squares with constraints (LSC) approach to rigorously incorporate GRACE and GRACE-FO data and a priori hydrological knowledge, with the aim to improve global ΔTWS components’ accuracy and spatial resolution. The 3°×3° GRACE mascon derived ΔTWS data is disaggregated into the 0.5°×0.5° anomalous soil moisture storage (ΔSMS), groundwater storage (ΔGWS), snow water equivalent (ΔSWE), and surface water storage (ΔSWS) based on the covariance information obtained from the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) and the PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) models. Evaluation with different ground measurements and satellite products between 2002 and 2019 exhibits significantly improved accuracy in all individual ΔTWS components. This improvement is of particular note in ΔGWS and ΔSWS, where the LSC approach increases the globally averaged correlation values by approximately 0.13 and 0.05, respectively. Reliable prior knowledge leads to a more accurate ΔTWS component estimate, and the use of ensemble-mean knowledge yields the best result.

GRACE↗
NASA NTRS2016

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Historic Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Mato Grosso, Brazil: 1. Source Data Uncertainties

Historic carbon emissions are an important foundation for proposed efforts to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation and enhance forest carbon stocks through conservation and sustainable forest management (REDD+). The level of uncertainty in historic carbon emissions estimates is also critical for REDD+, since high uncertainties could limit climate benefits from mitigation actions. Here, we analyzed source data uncertainties based on the range of available deforestation, forest degradation, and forest carbon stock estimates for the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso during 1990-2008. Results: Deforestation estimates showed good agreement for multi-year trends of increasing and decreasing deforestation during the study period. However, annual deforestation rates differed by >20% in more than half of the years between 1997-2008, even for products based on similar input data. Tier 2 estimates of average forest carbon stocks varied between 99-192 Mg C/ha, with greatest differences in northwest Mato Grosso. Carbon stocks in deforested areas increased over the study period, yet this increasing trend in deforested biomass was smaller than the difference among carbon stock datasets for these areas. Conclusions: Patterns of spatial and temporal disagreement among available data products provide a roadmap for future efforts to reduce source data uncertainties for estimates of historic forest carbon emissions. Specifically, regions with large discrepancies in available estimates of both deforestation and forest carbon stocks are priority areas for evaluating and improving existing estimates. Full carbon accounting for REDD+ will also require filling data gaps, including forest degradation and secondary forest, with annual data on all forest transitions.

Morton, Douglas C.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the PI, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As Federal, State, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Monitoring↗
NASA NTRS2022

Scientist-Stakeholder Relationships Drive Carbon Data Product Transfer Effectiveness within NASA Program

Carbon cycle science is at the heart of research on global climate change and its long-term impacts, as it examines the exchange of carbon between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and the impact of fossil fuel emissions on this cycling. Given the urgency of the climate challenge, NASA's Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) requires all funded investigators to identify and work with stakeholder organizations at project inception to accelerate the transfer of the products developed by funded research into decision making systems. In this study, we contribute to the literature through the implementation of a quantitative analysis of 908 unique survey responses from funded investigators to explore the maturity of the scientist-stakeholder engagement. The paper employs multiple correspondence analysis to provide evidence to support policy options to increase stakeholder integration into research programs. Despite limitations of the dataset used, we demonstrated that multiple funding rounds, long-standing relationships between the stakeholder and scientist, and the scientific productivity of the Principal Investigator, including the ability to produce datasets and research papers on these datasets, all contribute to carbon products moving from research to operational use. The maturity of relationships between scientists and stakeholders was shown to result improved stakeholder engagement. The use of carbon products should be identified in every stage of the program, and that capacity building is needed to support both existing and newly identified stakeholders better understand and use CMS products. As federal, state, and local policy on climate adaptation and mitigation matures, the need for information on carbon will expand. Building of stakeholder-scientist relationships in CMS results in an effective generation and use of datasets to support this need and prototype ways that improved information needed for decision making can be created.

Molly E Brown↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA’s Earth System Observatory Formulation Overview

NASA’s Earth System Observatory (ESO) is an array of Earth-focused, interconnected satellite missions focused on five core study areas: Surface Biology and Geology, Mass Change, Aerosols, Surface Deformation and Change, and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. Observatory development follows recommendations from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine’s 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey. Data gathered by ESO missions will provide actionable science to inform decisions related to climate change, disaster mitigation, and wildfires, improve real-time agricultural processes, and many other applications. Targeting launch dates in the late 2020s and early 2030s, each ESO satellite will deliver valuable information, but by working together as a single observatory system, their combined data and imagery will provide the global community with a 4D, holistic view of Earth, from bedrock to atmosphere. The ESO is also building on the legacy of international collaboration in Earth science, with initial participation and collaboration on these missions across space agency partners, including the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), Centre National D'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), Canadian Space Agency (CSA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), and Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI). This paper provides an overview of ESO, as well as an update on ESO missions currently in formulation – the Atmosphere Observing System, Mass Change, and Surface Biology and Geology elements – including current mission architectures, international partner collaboration, science community engagement, and applications efforts, as well as how NASA and its partners will make ESO data accessible to users all over the world.

NASA Earth Science↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Overview of Submesoscale-Climate Connections

In this talk, I will present a brief overview of some recent results and current research priorities regarding the significant participation of upper ocean / submesoscale processes in regional to global Earth system dynamics in a warming climate, such as ocean overturning, biogeochemistry, and heat and carbon uptake as well as atmospheric, coastal, and cryospheric dynamics. In addition to reviewing the evidence for these links by topic, I will highlight how advances in both understanding and prediction are derived from the integrated triad of process studies, modeling, and regional and global observing systems. Finally, I will discuss how triadic investments focused on these upper ocean processes might lead to better-informed decision-making for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Overview↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA Initiatives to Support Renewable Energy and Sustainable Infrastructure

Initiatives to build and manage climate-resilient infrastructure require spatially explicit environmental and climate information. NASA’s vantage point of Earth from space provides valuable observations that, in concert with additional information, can be used to inform both the design and operation of infrastructure that builds resilience to climate stressors. In this presentation, we provide an overview of how NASA Earth science is used to support decision-making associated with climate adaptation and mitigation, with a particular focus on renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure. Much of this work is currently delivered through NASA’s Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project, which generates high quality solar and meteorological data products that are customized to the needs of user communities. Importantly, these products are delivered through a variety of web-based applications that make it easier for users to access relevant and timely information. We will highlight several examples of how the impact of POWER is scaled via a robust user community and discuss further plans to expand impact. Additionally, this presentation will highlight efforts of the NASA Earth Science Division’s Energy & Infrastructure Applications program to expand collaborative activities with researchers and practitioners that work on renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure.

Allison K Leidner↗
NASA NTRS2011

Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

Shindell, Drew↗