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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change-related warming reduces thermal sensitivity and modifies metabolic activity of coastal benthic bacterial communities

Besides long-term average temperature increases, climate change is projected to result in a higher frequency of marine heatwaves. Coastal zones are some of the most productive and vulnerable ecosystems, with many stretches already under anthropogenic pressure. Microorganisms in coastal areas are central to marine energy and nutrient cycling and therefore, it is important to understand how climate change will alter these ecosystems. Using a long-term heated bay (warmed for 50 years) in comparison with an unaffected adjacent control bay and an experimental short-term thermal (9 days at 6–35 °C) incubation experiment, this study provides new insights into how coastal benthic water and surface sediment bacterial communities respond to temperature change. Benthic bacterial communities in the two bays reacted differently to temperature increases with productivity in the heated bay having a broader thermal tolerance compared with that in the control bay. Furthermore, the transcriptional analysis showed that the heated bay benthic bacteria had higher transcript numbers related to energy metabolism and stress compared to the control bay, while short-term elevated temperatures in the control bay incubation experiment induced a transcript response resembling that observed in the heated bay field conditions. In contrast, a reciprocal response was not observed for the heated bay community RNA transcripts exposed to lower temperatures indicating a potential tipping point in community response may have been reached. In summary, long-term warming modulates the performance, productivity, and resilience of bacterial communities in response to warming.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coastal groundwater salinization impairs tree carbon–water balance

How coastal forest productivity varies with local nutrient availability and water supply remains a knowledge gap under climate change. In a two-decade field experiment manipulating fertilization and density in coastal pine forests, we show that a decade of growth enhancement by simulated sedimentary nutrient inputs has resulted in a striking reversal in growth and increased mortality risk as drought and sea level rise progressed. Recent groundwater salinization has further triggered a shift from nutrient to water limitation, causing severe stomatal closure and decoupling of tree carbon–water balance, which induces a negative intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE)–growth relationship. Higher tree iWUE predicted sharper tree growth declines, and both nutrient enrichment and high stand density amplified this feedback, increasing the risk of hydraulic failure and mortality. These results suggest that a transient nutrient-stimulatory effect could drive further coastal forest degradation due to heightened belowground saltwater stress under sea-level rise.

Climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Examining future changes in coastal low-level jet properties offshore California through dynamical downscaling

The coastal low-level jet, or coastal low-level jet (CLLJ), is a synoptically-forced meteorological feature frequently present offshore the western United States (U.S.). Characterized by a wind speed maximum that resides at the top of the marine boundary layer, the CLLJ is largely controlled by the location and strength of the North Pacific High (NPH) as well as the coastal geometry. Considering the rich wind resource available in this offshore region, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management identified wind energy lease areas offshore California and supported the deployment of two U.S. Department of Energy wind lidar buoys near Morro Bay and Humboldt. Despite our relatively good understanding of the fundamental mechanisms responsible for large-scale CLLJ properties offshore the western U.S., future changes in CLLJ characteristics are less clear. To address this research challenge, and ultimately to better inform future wind turbine deployments, we use simulations driven by three global climate models (GCMs). We apply self-organizing maps to the model outputs for a historical and two future climate periods to show the range of NPH regimes that support CLLJ conditions during the warm seasons, as well as the subtle contribution from land-falling cyclones approaching the mainland during the cold seasons. Compared to the historical period, the three GCM-driven simulations agree that CLLJ conditions will become more (less) prevalent from central California northward (southward). They agree less with respect to future changes in maximum CLLJ wind speeds and CLLJ heights. However, after considering model biases present during the historical period, wind speeds between the models are actually more similar during the 2070–2095 period than during the historical period. The potential combination of more frequent CLLJ conditions characterized by relatively consistent wind speeds occurring at lower heights across northern California suggests that the Humboldt lease area may be ideal for a long-term wind turbine deployment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased U.S. coastal hurricane risk under climate change

Several pathways for how climate change may influence the U.S. coastal hurricane risk have been proposed, but the physical mechanisms and possible connections between various pathways remain unclear. Here, future projections of hurricane activity (1980–2100), downscaled from multiple climate models using a synthetic hurricane model, show an enhanced hurricane frequency for the Gulf and lower East coast regions. The increase in coastal hurricane frequency is driven primarily by changes in steering flow, which can be attributed to the development of an upper-level cyclonic circulation over the western Atlantic. The latter is part of the baroclinic stationary Rossby waves forced mainly by increased diabatic heating in the eastern tropical Pacific, a robust signal across the multimodel ensemble. Last, these heating changes also play a key role in decreasing wind shear near the U.S. coast, further aggravating coastal hurricane risk enhanced by the physically connected steering flow changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Characterizing Spatial and Temporal Variability of California’s Coastal Upwelling Using a Satellite-Derived CUTI Index

Ocean upwelling off California is a wind-driven coastal process with complex interactions between spatial wind patterns and sea surface temperatures. Large-scale spatial and temporal upwelling characterizations are traditionally based on numerical models, while quantifying upwelling with direct observations is not straightforward. To complement model-based upwelling characterizations, here we use satellite estimates of winds, sea surface temperatures, and ocean currents along the California coast to calculate the coastal upwelling transport index (CUTI), originally calculated from a numerical ocean model. The CUTI framework accounts for both Ekman and geostrophic offshore-directed ocean transport, the latter of which is often neglected in satellite-based upwelling assessments. The approach yields the CUTI over a 30-yr period at a daily temporal and 0.25° spatial resolution to analyze upwelling patterns, with focus on potential Morro Bay and Humboldt wind energy areas. Morro Bay (CUTI median of 0.63 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits stronger, more consistent upwelling throughout the year, whereas Humboldt (CUTI median of 0.45 m 2 s −1 ) exhibits a pronounced seasonal cycle with strongest upwelling in the summer and occasional downwelling in winter. The cluster analysis of 1993–2022 satellite maps of CUTI identifies four characteristic spatial upwelling patterns along the coast, corresponding to distinct spatial distributions of sea surface temperature anomalies, Ekman transport, and geostrophic ocean water transport. This dataset provides an observation-based foundation for characterizing natural coastal upwelling off the California coast, showing good agreement with the original model CUTI while being based on satellite data and offering increased spatial resolution.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2025

Middle and Late-Holocene coastal environments of far Southeastern Russia as inferred from palynological and diatom data

Existing discontinuous palynological records from coastal and river valley exposures, with varying quality of radiocarbon control, suggested that the regional Holocene climate in southern areas of the Russian Far East was characterized by as many as 10 fluctuations in temperature and/or precipitation. In this study, palynological data from Zerkalnoye Lake, located on the western coast of the Sea of Japan, indicate a gradual decline in temperature through the Middle and Late-Holocene with a Holocene thermal maximum between 8800 and 5500 cal yr BP. Three wetter than present intervals, marked by an increase in Pinus koraiensis, occurred c. 3600–3500 cal yr BP, 2340–2050 cal yr BP, and 1830–1800 cal yr BP. The Zerkalnoye record shows the dominance of Quercus-broadleaf forests during the Middle and Early Holocene, although Quercus shows a gradual decrease as climate cooled during this interval. Diatom analysis of the Zerkalnoye sediments documents that the site was a shallow bay or coastal lagoon until c. 3540 cal yr BP. After that time, a freshwater lake was established, which had variable marine influences probably caused by sea level changes following deglaciation. The diatom data indicate a cool water interval between 2900 and 2580 cal yr BP, also noted in other sites in the region. Changes in the basin’s depositional environment do not affect the palynological record, indicating such sites can provide reliable paleovegetational and paleoclimatic records. In conclusion, the discrepancies of the various regional paleoclimatic scenarios indicate the need for the further collection of continuous records from coastal to alpine zones in this region of northeastern Asia.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

EXCHANGE Campaign 1: A Community-Driven Baseline Characterization of Soils, Sediments, and Water Across Coastal Gradients

The EXploration of Coastal Hydrobiogeochemistry Across a Network of Gradients and Experiments (EXCHANGE) program is a consortium of scientists working together to improve our understanding of how the two-way exchange of water between estuaries or large lake lacustuaries and the terrestrial landscape influence the state and function of ecosystems across the coastal interface. EXCHANGE Campaign 1 (EC1) focuses on the spatial variation in biogeochemical structure and function at the coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI). In the Fall of 2021, the EXCHANGE Consortium gathered samples from 52 TAIs. Samples collected from EC1 were analyzed for bulk geochemical parameters, bulk physicochemical parameters, organic matter characteristics, and redox-sensitive elements.Please download ec1_README.pdf for a complete list of available data in each .zip folder, package version history, and detailed information about the project. This README will serve as the central place for EC1 Data Package updates. Experimental setup and v1 methods are documented in Myers-Pigg and Pennington et al., 2023 (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-023-02548-7).EC1 Data Package Structure:ec1_README.pdfec1_methods.pdfec1_metadata_v3.zip...ec1_dd.csv...ec1_flmd.csv...ec1_sample_catalog.csv...ec1_metadata_kitlevel.csv...ec1_metadata_collectionlevel.csv...ec1_data_collectionlevel.csv...ec1_igsn_metadata.csvec1_soil_v3.zipec1_sediment_v3.zipec1_water_v3.zipec1_processingscripts_v3.zipThis data package is on v3 and was originally published May 2023 (v1). Subsequent updates will be published here with new version numbers. Please see the Change History section in ec1_README.pdf for detailed changes.---Acknowledging EXCHANGE: General Support and Data Product UseWe ask that users of EXCHANGE data add the following acknowledgement when publishing data in scholarly articles and data repositories:"This research is based on work supported by COMPASS-FME, a multi-institutional project supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research as part of the Environmental System Science Program."

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data for: Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events

This dataset contains data and code associated with the paper Patel et al. "Time to anoxia: Observations and predictions of oxygen drawdown following coastal flood events".The coastal terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI) is a highly dynamic system characterized by strong physical, chemical, and biological gradients. In particular, shifting soil redox conditions and consumption of terminal electron acceptors, due in part to dynamic hydrologic conditions, is a strong driver of carbon availability and transformations across TAIs. However, while redox dynamics are well described, our ability to quantitatively forecast rates of oxic to anoxic shifts in soils with different characteristics and inundation regimes is limited. We integrated field measurements, laboratory incubations, and model simulations to improve mechanistic understanding of oxygen consumption dynamics in coastal soils. Continuous in situ monitoring unexpectedly revealed that flooding caused temporary spikes in subsurface dissolved oxygen followed by rapid consumption in the wetlands. To further investigate these mechanisms in a controlled setting, we performed laboratory incubations using surface and subsurface soils from a TAI gradient (defined here as upland forest to transitional forest to wetland) in Western Lake Erie to measure oxygen consumption rates in TAI soils during flood events. In our experiments, wetland soils reached anoxia the fastest, in ∼ 9 h on average, whereas upland soils turned anoxic in ∼ 18 h. Subsurface upland soils did not turn anoxic even after two weeks of saturation in the lab, and their oxygen consumption patterns suggested carbon and/or nutrient limitation. These results are consistent with in-situ groundwater redox and oxygen measurements in the field, where wetland soils exhibited the highest rates of oxygen consumption along the TAI. Model simulations of oxygen consumption suggested that oxygen consumption had stronger abiotic controls in wetland soils but stronger biotic controls in upland soils, providing a useful framework for future incubation experiments. Microbial activity is a strong driver of oxygen consumption in TAI soils, although it is constrained by the availability of dissolved carbon in subsurface soils.This dataset contains a compressed (.zip) archive of the data and R scripts used for this manuscript. The dataset includes files in .csv format, which can be accessed and processed using MS Excel or R. This archive can also be accessed on GitHub at https://github.com/COMPASS-DOE/cmps-time_to_anoxia (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.10815374).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

RENEWABLE MARINE-SOURCE INTEGRATED HEAT PUMP FOR SPACE CONDITIONING, WATER HEATING, AND FRESH WATER HARVESTING IN REMOTE COASTAL AND ISLAND COMMUNITIES

US coastal and island communities have vulnerable energy infrastructure and high energy costs, which are exacerbated by climate change. A unique opportunity exists to use thermal energy from year-round mild temperature variations to satisfy the broad energy needs of these communities. The US Department of Energy’s Oak Ridge National Laboratory designed a small-scale marine-source integrated heat pump (MS-IHP) that, as a single appliance, combines space conditioning, dehumidification (including fresh water harvesting from humid air), and water heating for home and commercial building applications in remote coastal and island communities. The unique, innovative features of the MS-IHP offer improved efficiency and substantially reduced costs for space conditioning, dehumidification, and water heating by seamlessly integrating a heat pump, heat pump water heater, and dehumidifier by using a single compressor; optimal year-round space cooling and heating, dehumidification, water harvesting, and water heating; and improved thermal comfort and reliable operation without frosting and defrosting because of the ocean’s warm temperatures and high heat capacity. Preliminary testing was conducted by retrofitting a commercial heat pump, demonstrating an outperformed performance compared with traditional air-source heat pumps. The MS-IHP technology can help decarbonize energy systems in remote coastal and island communities.

Gao, Zhiming [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000271397995)↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Multi-variable, Multi-value Hydrodynamic Modeling Approach to Support Marine Energy and Coastal Resilience Applications

Funded by the Marine Energy Seedling Laboratory Program, the study reported on here aimed to develop a multi-variable, multi-value hydrodynamic modeling approach based on the Finite-Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM) to support a wide range of marine renewable energy and coastal resilience applications. We migrated the marine hydrokinetic energy module to simulate tidal energy extraction by tidal turbines under wave-current interactions. We explored the particle tracking module in FVCOM and applied it to Sequim Bay, Washington, to illustrate the surface current field and mimic the pollutant transport near the surface. A tracer-water age module was added to FVCOM to examine water exchange through the entrance. Lastly, a user-specified vertical coordinate option was added to FVCOM to improve simulation of the effect of floating turbines on surface currents and scalar transport. The above-described model development has been tested using a simplified model domain and demonstrated in real-world coastal systems. The outcome of this project will provide a useful modeling code and approach for marine renewable energy and coastal resilience research and applications.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Bioavailable Soil Nutrients Across Coastal Systems: Western Lake Erie and Chesapeake Bay

Terrestrial Aquatic Interfaces (TAIs), defined as where land meets water, exhibit important hydrological, biological, and biogeochemical dynamics and play a critical role in the Earth’s carbon cycle. Current Earth System Models improperly represent this role due to the complexity of these systems and the disproportionally large impact TAIs have relative to their area. To improve our predictive capacity of coastal system dynamics, a better understanding of carbon and nutrient cycling across TAI’s is needed. Coastal Observations, Mechanisms, and Predictions Across Systems and Scales (COMPASS) aims to achieve this through field observations and laboratory incubations throughout the Western Lake Erie and Chesapeake Bay regions. Here, we report on preliminary results from a soil characterization experiment across the WLE and CB regions. This experiment was conducted as part of the 2-year field, measurements, and experiments (FME) pilot study portion of COMPASS to provide initial baseline data for the sites and to characterize the spatial variability of our analytes. Soil samples were collected from three locations along the TAI transect (upland forest, transitional forest, and wetland) and analyzed for bioavailable nutrients using three types of extractions: (a) water extractions, (b) 2M KCl extractions, and (c) 1M NH4Cl extractions to analyze (a) water soluble organic carbon (WSOC), (b) ammonium and nitrate, and (c) base cations, including Ca, Mg, Na, K, and Fe. These analyses, in conjunction with other bulk physicochemical analyses, will help establish baseline understanding of these sites to drive future research and design focused experiments that will ultimately improve our predictive understanding of these freshwater and marine coastal TAIs and their response to short and long-term changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Disastrous Flash Floods Triggered by Moderate to Minor Rainfall Events. Recent Cases in Coastal Benguela (Angola)

The present work focuses on two recent flash floods in coastal Benguela (Angola), both triggered by moderate rainfall but which had disastrous consequences for local populations (namely 71 deaths in 2015 and 17 in 2019). The research involved a regional survey to establish the effects of these floods combined with a geomorphological and socio-economic analysis of the most affected areas to understand the main forcing factors. The two flash floods produced major damage in restricted sectors within very small coastal catchments (<16 km2). The prevalence of fine-grained sedimentary rocks, relatively steep hills, thin soil cover, and vegetation scarcity are natural factors that promote surface runoff. However, socio-economic conditions are most likely the main reasons of flood damage. Namely, rapid population growth with poor planning and making use of low-quality construction materials, the high waste yields that are not properly managed and the absence of flood risk awareness. In the small valleys around the fast-growing cities of coastal Benguela, hazardous flash floods occur recurrently, even after moderate precipitation. Most affected areas are determined by local conditions that compromise drainage at the time of the rainfall event, being very difficult to predict.

Dinis, Pedro A. (ORCID:0000000175587369)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variations in boundary layer stability across Antarctica: a comparison between coastal and interior sites

The range of boundary layer stability profiles, from the surface to 500 m a.g.l. (above ground level), present in radiosonde observations from two continental-interior (South Pole Station and Dome Concordia Station) and three coastal (McMurdo Station, Georg von Neumayer Station III, and Syowa Station) Antarctic sites, is examined using the self-organizing maps (SOMs) neural network algorithm. A wide range of potential temperature profiles is revealed, from shallow boundary layers with strong near-surface stability to deeper boundary layers with weaker or near-neutral stability, as well as profiles with weaker near-surface stability and enhanced stability aloft, above the boundary layer. Boundary layer regimes were defined based on the range of profiles revealed by the SOM analysis; 20 boundary layer regimes were identified to account for differences in stability near the surface as well as above the boundary layer. Strong, very strong, or extremely strong stability, with vertical potential temperature gradients of 5 to in excess of 30 K per 100 m, occurred more than 80 % of the time at South Pole and Dome Concordia in the winter. Weaker stability was found in the winter at the coastal sites, with moderate and strong stability (vertical potential temperature gradients of 1.75 to 15 K per 100 m) occurring 70 % to 85 % of the time. Even in the summer, moderate and strong stability is found across all five sites, either immediately near the surface or aloft, just above the boundary layer. While the mean boundary layer height at the continental-interior sites was found to be approximately 50 m, the mean boundary layer height at the coastal sites was deeper, around 110 m. Further, a commonly described two-stability-regime system in the Arctic associated with clear or cloudy conditions was applied to the 20 boundary layer regimes identified in this study to understand if the two-regime behavior is also observed in the Antarctic. It was found that moderate and strong stability occur more often with clear- than cloudy-sky conditions, but weaker stability regimes occur almost equally for clear and cloudy conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for scientific paper "Simulated plant‑mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine‑scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands", a modeling study based on field observation at the tidal salt marshes of the Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States

This dataset is the raw and processed data for the paper "Simulated plant ‑ mediated oxygen input has strong impacts on fine ‑ scale porewater biogeochemistry and weak impacts on integrated methane fluxes in coastal wetlands". This study investigated how plant-mediated oxygen input affects subsurface biogeochemical reactions of organic carbon degradation and the resulting methane emissions of coastal wetlands by model simulation. We used the subsurface geochemical simulator PFLOTRAN for the modeling, which produced the simulated changes in porewater chemical substances and methane emissions over 10 days under different scenarios of plant-mediated oxygen input.Specifically, this dataset contains: 1) the input files for PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs conducted in this study. Those files are with an extension of ".in", containing information of the biogeochemical reaction network (stoichiometry, reaction rate, Monod constants, etc), fluid flow rate and oxygen concentration in the fluid which together simulated the plant-mediated oxygen input, the configuration of artificial reactions that simulated the methane fluxes, etc. The PFLOTRAN input files are text files, which can be opened by NotePad, but running these input files will require proper installation of PFLOTRAN (instruction: https://documentation.pflotran.org/user_guide/how_to/installation/installation.html). 2) the raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN of all simulation runs, and 3) the python scripts used to process the raw model output, including random allocation of root cells, converting raw data into organized formats, calculating the methane fluxes based on the model output, data visualization, etc. The raw and processed model output from PFLOTRAN are in .spydata format, which can be viewed with Python. and 3) the python scripts for data processing and analysis are programming scripts, which can be opened with Python.This modeling work, in particular the model parameterization of root density and initial conditions of porewater concentrations of biogeochemical substances, was based on field measurements at the salt marsh of the Upper Parker River Estuary, Massachusetts, United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Lidar Measurements and High-Resolution Mesoscale Modeling of Coastally Trapped Disturbances off the Coast of California

Coastally Trapped disturbances (CTDs) are shifts in wind direction from the pre-dominant direction to equatorward to poleward for a period of time. These CTDs occur during the warm season off the California coast and impact coastal weather conditions and planned offshore wind plants. This study assesses the characteristics of CTD events as observed by lidar and other offshore buoys, then evaluates the ability of modeling systems to capture the correct characteristics, leveraging model output from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) operational modeling system and the NOW-23 (National Offshore Wind) model dataset. CTDs were analyzed for October 2020 and May through to October of 2021, identifying 18 unique CTD events, confirmed by a nearby National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoy. The HRRR model captured most of these events, but the NOW-23 model output contained only 12 events. Composites of the wind, temperature, and pressure perturbations pre-, during, and post-event demonstrated the diminishment in wind speed, particularly for the alongshore component. Although the NOW-23 model captured the alongshore wind component and pressure perturbations well, the cross-shore wind component and temperature perturbations varied substantially. When the turbulent kinetic energy deviation and wind shear was positive across all levels pre-event, the NOW-23 modeling system was less likely to capture the CTD event. In contrast, the events that were captured by the model tended to have negative wind shear aloft pre-event.

coastal meteorology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impacts of climate change on future hurricane induced rainfall and flooding in a coastal watershed: A case study on Hurricane Harvey

The warming climate is likely to increase hurricane-associated extreme rainfall and lead to sea-level rise (SLR). Thus, how the floods induced by intense hurricanes respond to these potential changes is of great concern. This study investigates the future warmer climate impacts on hurricane-induced extreme rainfall, and—more importantly—the subsequent compound flooding at the watershed scale (from an event-based analysis perspective). To this goal, a modeling framework is designed based on the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), the Two-Dimensional fvand the Regional Community Earth System Model (R-CESM). The framework was applied to Hurricane Harvey (2017) at the Clear Creek watershed (a coastal watershed in the southern Houston) as a case study. The results show that the projected maximum rainfall totals over the watershed would be exacerbated by 17.7 % and 49.7 % in the 2050s and 2090s (respectively) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5). This means a 16.1 % increase in Harvey rainfall over the watershed per degree Celsius increase in Mean Surface Temperature over the Gulf of Mexico region (18°~31° N, 77°~98° W). Meanwhile, the increases in maximum inundation extent would be 11.0 % (2050s) and 19.5 % (2090s). Furthermore, considerable increases in maximum inundation depth and duration in regions along the middle and downstream of Clear Creek (and also those around Clear Lake) are expected. The projected SLR will have little effect on the maximum inundation depth and extent if storm surge changes are not taken into account; meanwhile, it will influence the inundation duration at downstream locations. In conclusion, this modeling framework can be also applied at other coastal watersheds to evaluate the projected climate change impacts on the compound flooding induced by extreme climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disturbance legacies regulate coastal forest soil stability to changing salinity and inundation: A soil transplant experiment

Coastal forests worldwide are vulnerable to a dramatic transition from upland to wetland as sea-level rise accelerates and regimes of precipitation and storms change. However, the biogeochemical impacts of shifting salinity and inundation disturbance that foreshadow forest to wetland state transitions are largely unknown. This experiment used a natural salinity gradient in a tidal creek in eastern Maryland, U.S.A., to examine how soil respiration and chemistry may change under novel salinity and inundation disturbance regimes. Soil monoliths were transplanted in a reciprocal design among plots varying in seawater exposure and elevation above the creek. We monitored the monoliths’ carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) flux for two years and performed soil chemical analyses at the end of the experiment. Soil CO 2 flux was affected by changing disturbance regimes and responses were dependent upon the salinity and inundation legacies associated with each study location. Lowland soil CO 2 flux was resistant to changing salinity and inundation disturbance, with transplanted soil monolith chemistry composition in between that of its origin and destination. Conversely, upland soil CO 2 flux was sensitive to changing salinity and inundation disturbance and remained suppressed throughout the 2-year study when exposed to wetter, saline conditions. Additionally, transplanted upland soil chemistry composition was like that of its destination, rather than origin, with upland soils displaying higher pH, base saturation, and nutrient availability relative to lowland soils. Here, we hypothesize that reductions in soil respiration rates were driven by loss of soil nutrients and osmotic and redox stress on microbial communities following exposure to seawater. Together, our results suggest that disturbance legacies shape coastal forest soil responses to changing salinity and inundation disturbance regimes. However, fully understanding the dependence of system responses on disturbance legacies requires future study across a variety of systems and spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗