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At least 109 records · Page 6

Uncertainty in Model Predictions of Vibrio Vulnificus Response to Climate Variability and Change: A Chesapeake Bay Case Study

The effect that climate change and variability will have on waterborne bacteria is a topic of increasing concern for coastal ecosystems, including the Chesapeake Bay. Surface water temperature trends in the Bay indicate a warming pattern of roughly 0.3-0.4 C per decade over the past 30 years. It is unclear what impact future warming will have on pathogens currently found in the Bay, including Vibrio spp. Using historical environmental data, combined with three different statistical models of Vibrio vulnificus probability, we explore the relationship between environmental change and predicted Vibrio vulnificus presence in the upper Chesapeake Bay. We find that the predicted response of V. vulnificus probability to high temperatures in the Bay differs systematically between models of differing structure. As existing publicly available datasets are inadequate to determine which model structure is most appropriate, the impact of climatic change on the probability of V. vulnificus presence in the Chesapeake Bay remains uncertain. This result points to the challenge of characterizing climate sensitivity of ecological systems in which data are sparse and only statistical models of ecological sensitivity exist.

model predictions↗

Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

plant communities↗

Widespread Mangrove Damage Resulting from the 2017 Atlantic Mega Hurricane Season

Comprised of 17 named tropical storms, 6 of which were major hurricanes, the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season ranked as one of the most damaging and costly hurricane seasons on record. In addition to socio-economic impacts, many previous studies have shown that important coastal ecosystems like mangroves are shaped by severe storms. However, little is known about how the cumulative effects of storms over entire hurricane seasons affect mangroves across large regions. We used satellite imagery from the entire Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico region to show that 2017 resulted in disproportionate mangrove damage compared to baseline responses over the previous 8 years. Specifically, we observed 30 times more mangrove damage, via a reduction in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), during 2017 compared to any of the eight previous hurricane seasons, and most (72%) of this damage persisted throughout the 7 month post-hurricane season period as indicated by no NDVI recovery. Furthermore, wind speed, rainfall, and canopy height data showed that mangrove damage primarily resulted from high maximum wind speeds, but flooding (cumulative rainfall), previous storm history, and mangrove structure (canopy height) were also important predictors of damage. While mangroves are known to be resilient to hurricane impacts, our results suggest that increasingly frequent mega-hurricane seasons in the Caribbean region will dramatically alter mangrove disturbance dynamics.

Temilola Elisabeth Fatoyinbo Agueh↗

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Support Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To support Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Inform Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To complement ongoing work by Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Technical Paper↗

ACIX-Aqua: A Global Assessment of Atmospheric Correction Methods for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Over Lakes, Rivers, and Coastal Waters

Atmospheric correction over inland and coastal waters is one of the major remaining challenges in aquatic remote sensing, often hindering the quantitative retrieval of biogeochemical variables and analysis of their spatial and temporal variability within aquatic environments. The Atmospheric Correction Intercomparison Exercise (ACIX-Aqua), a joint NASA – ESA activity, was initiated to enable a thorough evaluation of eight state-of-the-art atmospheric correction (AC) processors available for Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 data processing. Over 1000 radiometric matchups from both freshwaters (rivers, lakes, reservoirs) and coastal waters were utilized to examine the quality of derived aquatic reflectances (ρ̂w). This dataset originated from two sources: Data gathered from the international scientific community (henceforth called Community Validation Database, CVD), which captured predominantly inland water observations, and the Ocean Color component of AERONET measurements (AERONET-OC), representing primarily coastal ocean environments. This volume of data permitted the evaluation of the AC processors individually (using all the matchups) and comparatively (across seven different Optical Water Types, OWTs) using common matchups. We found that the performance of the AC processors differed for CVD and AERONET-OC matchups, likely reflecting inherent variability in aquatic and atmospheric properties between the two datasets. For the former, the median errors in ρ̂w560 and ρ̂w664 were found to range from 20 to 30% for best-performing processors. Using the AERONET-OC matchups, our performance assessments showed that median errors within the 15–30% range in these spectral bands may be achieved. The largest uncertainties were associated with the blue bands (25 to 60%) for best-performing processors considering both CVD and AERONET-OC assessments. We further assessed uncertainty propagation to the downstream products such as near-surface concentration of chlorophyll-a (Chla) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS). Using satellite matchups from the CVD along with in situ Chla and TSS, we found that 20–30% uncertainties in ρ̂w490≤λ≤743nm yielded 25–70% uncertainties in derived Chla and TSS products for top-performing AC processors. We summarize our results using performance matrices guiding the satellite user community through the OWT-specific relative performance of AC processors. Our analysis stresses the need for better representation of aerosols, particularly absorbing ones, and improvements in corrections for sky- (or sun-) glint and adjacency effects, in order to achieve higher quality downstream products in freshwater and coastal ecosystems.

Nima Pahlevan↗

Assessing High Resolution Thermal Monitoring of Complex Intertidal Environments From Space: the Case of ECOSTRESS at Rias Baixas, NW Iberia

Currently, thermal sensors on satellites and other orbital platforms with high spatial resolution designed to monitor the oceans are often insufficient to assess the surface temperature of small bodies of water or within the coastal boundary layer. As the accuracy and sensitivity of remote sensing satellites improve, the demand for more accurate and up-to-date basic data sets for calibration increases. The quality of the thermal data collected by ECOSTRESS on the International Space Station allows the characterization of thermal stress levels in coastal ecosystems with a high spatial resolution of 70 m and a return time from hours to 5 days. This study focused on the calibration of ECOSTRESS estimates with in situ surface temperature data from sensors installed at 3 cm depth in the sediment on the intertidal muddy sandflats of three of the Rías Baixas in Galicia, NW Iberian Peninsula, from 2019 to 2021. A final number of 45 ECOSTRESS temperature images were analyzed. From these, 20% contained substantial georeferencing errors which had to be corrected manually with GIS software tools. We applied the Fourier's law of Heat Conduction to derive surface estimates from loggers sub-surface measurements that could be directly compared with ECOSTRESS data. Overall, a good calibration which explained more than 80% of ECOSTRESS temperature estimates for the whole dataset was obtained, but with an intrinsic cold bias around 1.39 °C. When temperatures at a depth of 3 cm were used, the linear fit became worse and the negative bias increased to 1.49 °C. Closer inspection revealed that night measurements were responsible for this larger deviation, as ECOSTRESS estimates became much colder compared to within sediment measurements because of the combined effect of the instrument intrinsic bias and nocturnal surface cooling. The best calibration was obtained when surface estimates were calculated just for the nighttime, as the cold bias decreased to 0.93 °C. More importantly, during hot daytime conditions in emersion above 20 °C, ECOSTRESS data matched surface temperature estimates, probably because of a better performance of ECOSTRESS algorithm at dry surfaces with lower emissivity. Thus, during the most ecologically relevant periods when high temperatures could drive thermal stress in many commercially-important bivalve species, ECOSTRESS provides accurate surface estimates that can be used to derive sub surface temperatures at the depths at which the different burrowing organisms live. We thus conclude that this instrument constitutes an important global tool to examine thermal stress at an unprecedented spatial scale for complex sea-land boundary systems.

ECOSTRESS↗

Hawaiʻi Urban Development: Mapping Urban Infrastructure and Linkages to Wastewater Impacts across Hawaiʻi

Coastal ecosystems and human health across the Hawaiʻian islands are under threat from cesspools and other unpermitted wastewater infrastructure. Cesspools, or home sewage systems that hold wastewater effluent in porous concrete containers underground, discharge raw, untreated sewage directly into waterways. In fact, it is estimated that approximately 88,000 cesspools release 55 million gallons of raw sewage into Hawaiʻi’s waterways each day. Our partners, The Nature Conservancy, Hawaiʻi Regional Office (TNC) and University of Hawaiʻi, Mānoa (UHM), are heavily involved with the implementation and impact of Act 125, which was passed in 2017 by Hawaiʻi State Legislature to help combat these effects. This requires the conversion of cesspools to be upgraded and either converted to approved onsite disposal systems or connected to a sewer system so that the wastewater may be treated and to avoid leaching into the groundwater. Thus, identifying and locating cesspool and other unpermitted wastewater infrastructure is key to state and partner goals. Utilizing NASA Earth observations including Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), and Landsat 9 OLI-2 imagery, as well as pre-classified Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument (MSI) imagery in Esri’s Living Atlas, our team showcased the various perspectives that wastewater pollution research can use to assist in identifying and tracking urban development and concrete condition. This process was demonstrated by utilizing supervised object-based classification models, calculating various urban indices, and finding building size estimates to calculate effluent levels. Additionally, providing our partners with a GIS Methodology that can be built on to reach their future needs.

urban classification↗

Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink

Abstract Ecosystem connectivity tends to increase the resilience and function of ecosystems responding to stressors. Coastal ecosystems sequester disproportionately large amounts of carbon, but rapid exchange of water, nutrients, and sediment makes them vulnerable to sea level rise and coastal erosion. Individual components of the coastal landscape (i.e., marsh, forest, bay) have contrasting responses to sea level rise, making it difficult to forecast the response of the integrated coastal carbon sink. Here we couple a spatially-explicit geomorphic model with a point-based carbon accumulation model, and show that landscape connectivity, in-situ carbon accumulation rates, and the size of the landscape-scale coastal carbon stock all peak at intermediate sea level rise rates despite divergent responses of individual components. Progressive loss of forest biomass under increasing sea level rise leads to a shift from a system dominated by forest biomass carbon towards one dominated by marsh soil carbon that is maintained by substantial recycling of organic carbon between marshes and bays. These results suggest that climate change strengthens connectivity between adjacent coastal ecosystems, but with tradeoffs that include a shift towards more labile carbon, smaller marsh and forest extents, and the accumulation of carbon in portions of the landscape more vulnerable to sea level rise and erosion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Airborne Mission Concept for Coastal Ocean Color and Ecosystems Research

NASA airborne missions in 2011 and 2013 over Monterey Bay, CA, demonstrated novel above- and in-water calibration and validation measurements supporting a combined airborne sensor approach (imaging spectrometer, microradiometers, and a sun photometer). The resultant airborne data characterize contemporaneous coastal atmospheric and aquatic properties plus sea-truth observations from state-of-the-art instrument systems spanning a next-generation spectral domain (320-875 nm). This airborne instrument suite for calibration, validation, and research flew at the lowest safe altitude (ca. 100 ft or 30 m) as well as higher altitudes (e.g., 6,000 ft or 1,800 m) above the sea surface covering a larger area in a single synoptic sortie than ship-based measurements at a few stations during the same sampling period. Data collection of coincident atmospheric and aquatic properties near the sea surface and at altitude allows the input of relevant variables into atmospheric correction schemes to improve the output of corrected imaging spectrometer data. Specific channels support legacy and next-generation satellite capabilities, and flights are planned to within 30 min of satellite overpass. This concept supports calibration and validation activities of ocean color phenomena (e.g., river plumes, algal blooms) and studies of water quality and coastal ecosystems. The 2011 COAST mission flew at 100 and 6,000 ft on a Twin Otter platform with flight plans accommodating the competing requirements of the sensor suite, which included the Coastal-Airborne In-situ Radiometers (C-AIR) for the first time. C-AIR (Biospherical Instruments Inc.) also flew in the 2013 OCEANIA mission at 100 and 1,000 ft on the Twin Otter below the California airborne simulation of the proposed NASA HyspIRI satellite system comprised of an imaging spectrometer and thermal infrared multispectral imager on the ER-2 at 65,000 ft (20,000 m). For both missions, the Compact-Optical Profiling System (Biospherical Instruments, Inc.), an in-water system with microradiometers matching C-AIR, was deployed to compare sea-truth measurements and low-altitude Twin Otter flights within Monterey Bay red tide events. This novel airborne and in-water sensor capability advances the science of coastal measurements and enables rapid response for coastal events.

Oceans↗

Coastal High-resolution Observations and Remote Sensing of Ecosystems (C-HORSE)

Coastal benthic marine ecosystems, such as coral reefs, seagrass beds, and kelp forests are highly productive as well as ecologically and commercially important resources. These systems are vulnerable to degraded water quality due to coastal development, terrestrial run-off, and harmful algal blooms. Measurements of these features are important for understanding linkages with land-based sources of pollution and impacts to coastal ecosystems. Challenges for accurate remote sensing of coastal benthic (shallow water) ecosystems and water quality are complicated by atmospheric scattering/absorption (approximately 80+% of the signal), sun glint from the sea surface, and water column scattering (e.g., turbidity). Further, sensor challenges related to signal to noise (SNR) over optically dark targets as well as insufficient radiometric calibration thwart the value of coastal remotely-sensed data. Atmospheric correction of satellite and airborne remotely-sensed radiance data is crucial for deriving accurate water-leaving radiance in coastal waters. C-HORSE seeks to optimize coastal remote sensing measurements by using a novel airborne instrument suite that will bridge calibration, validation, and research capabilities of bio-optical measurements from the sea to the high altitude remote sensing platform. The primary goal of C-HORSE is to facilitate enhanced optical observations of coastal ecosystems using state of the art portable microradiometers with 19 targeted spectral channels and flight planning to optimize measurements further supporting current and future remote sensing missions.

Coasts↗

NASA COAST and OCEANIA Airborne Missions in Support of Ecosystem and Water Quality Research in the Coastal Zone

Worldwide, coastal marine ecosystems are exposed to land-based sources of pollution and sedimentation from anthropogenic activities including agriculture and coastal development. Ocean color products from satellite sensors provide information on chlorophyll (phytoplankton pigment), sediments, and colored dissolved organic material. Further, ship-based in-water measurements and emerging airborne measurements provide in situ data for the vicarious calibration of current and next generation satellite ocean color sensors and to validate the algorithms that use the remotely sensed observations. Recent NASA airborne missions over Monterey Bay, CA, have demonstrated novel above- and in-water measurement capabilities supporting a combined airborne sensor approach (imaging spectrometer, microradiometers, and a sun photometer). The results characterize coastal atmospheric and aquatic properties through an end-to-end assessment of image acquisition, atmospheric correction, algorithm application, plus sea-truth observations from state-of-the-art instrument systems. The primary goal of the airborne missions was to demonstrate the following in support of calibration and validation exercises for satellite coastal ocean color products: 1) the utility of a multi-sensor airborne instrument suite to assess the bio-optical properties of coastal California, including water quality; and 2) the importance of contemporaneous atmospheric measurements to improve atmospheric correction in the coastal zone. Utilizing an imaging spectrometer optimized in the blue to green spectral domain enables higher signal for detection of the relatively dark radiance measurements from marine and freshwater ecosystem features. The novel airborne instrument, Coastal Airborne In-situ Radiometers (C-AIR) provides measurements of apparent optical properties with high dynamic range and fidelity for deriving exact water leaving radiances at the land-ocean boundary, including radiometrically shallow aquatic ecosystems. Simultaneous measurements supporting empirical atmospheric correction of image data were accomplished using the Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-14). Flight operations are presented for the instrument payloads using the CIRPAS Twin Otter flown over Monterey Bay during the seasonal fall algal bloom in 2011 (COAST) and 2013 (OCEANIA) to support bio-optical measurements of phytoplankton for coastal zone research. Further, this airborne capability can be responsive to first flush rain events that deliver higher concentrations of sediments and pollution to coastal waters via watersheds and overland flow.

Airborne Equipment↗

Climate-Mediated Changes to Linked Terrestrial and Marine Ecosystems across the Northeast Pacific Coastal Temperate Rainforest Margin

Coastal margins are important areas of materials flux that link terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Consequently, climate-mediated changes to coastal terrestrial ecosystems and hydrologic regimes have high potential to influence nearshore ocean chemistry and food web dynamics. Research from tightly coupled, high-flux coastal ecosystems can advance understanding of terrestrial–marine links and climate sensitivities more generally. In the present article, we use the northeast Pacific coastal temperate rainforest as a model system to evaluate such links. We focus on key above- and belowground production and hydrological transport processes that control the land-to-ocean flow of materials and their influence on nearshore marine ecosystems. We evaluate how these connections may be altered by global climate change and we identify knowledge gaps in our understanding of the source, transport, and fate of terrestrial materials along this coastal margin. Finally, we propose five priority research themes in this region that are relevant for understanding coastal ecosystem links more broadly.

temperate rainforest, coastal margin, climate chan↗

Modeling the mechanisms of coastal vegetation dynamics and ecosystem responses to changing water levels

Coastal forests are increasingly experiencing mortality due to inundation by fresh- and seawater, leading to their replacement by marshes. These shifts alter vegetation composition, biogeochemical cycling, carbon storage, and hydrology. Using a hydraulically enabled ecosystem demography model (FATES-Hydro), we conducted numerical experiments to investigate the mechanisms behind inundation-driven forest loss and the ecosystem-scale consequences of forest-to-marsh transitions. We compared mortality processes and their effects across broadleaf and conifer trees at two coastal sites – Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (saline). Our simulations show that hydraulic failure, driven by root loss under prolonged flooding, is the primary mortality mechanism across both tree types and sites. Forest replacement by marsh reduced ecosystem-scale leaf area index (LAI), gross primary production (GPP), transpiration, and deep soil water uptake in conifer forests, while broadleaf forests experienced smaller changes due to lower initial LAI and greater marsh compensation. Marsh invasion occurred following canopy thinning driven by tree mortality. These findings suggest that, under similar root loss, hydraulic failure dominates coastal tree mortality regardless of species or water type, with denser forests experiencing stronger ecosystem impacts. Our study identifies key mortality mechanisms and offers testable hypotheses for future empirical studies on coastal vegetation change.

Ding, Junyan [Occidental College, Los Angeles, CA ↗

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗

Tropospheric Ozone Profiling Using Simulated GEO-CAPE Measurement

Multi-spectral retrievals (UV+VIS, UV+TIR, UV+VIS+TIR) improve sensitivity to the variability in near-surface O3 by a factor of 2 - 2.7 over those from UV or TIR alone. Multi-spectral retrievals provide the largest benefit when there is enhanced O3 near the surface. Combining all 3 wavelengths (UV+VIS+TIR) provides the greatest sensitivity below 850 hPa, with a 36% improvement over UV+VIS and a 17% improvement over UV+TIR. The impacts of clouds and aerosols are being assessed.

human versus natural sources↗

Soil microbial ecology and microbiome-metabolite linkages improve understanding of ecosystem states along terrestrial-aquatic interfaces

Coastal soils are dynamic systems where unique microbial niches are shaped by the intensity and duration of flooding between the terrestrial and aquatic boundaries of the terrestrial-aquatic interface (TAI). We aimed to understand the soil microbial community (16S rRNA gene) along the TAIs of a freshwater versus estuarine region and how it relates to organic matter (OM, via Fourier Transform Ion Cyclotron Resonance Mass Spectrometry). We studied the TAI gradients along a transect from upland (forested), transition (stressed forest), to wetland at three sites in each of the Lake Erie (freshwater) and Chesapeake Bay (estuarine) regions. Microbial communities differed significantly by region, transect position, and site. Contrary to expectations, given their dynamic hydrologies, transitions represented midpoints in microbial richness and diversity. We identified a core microbiome conserved across all transect positions within a region, highlighting potential microbial functions most resilient to environmental change. Indicator taxa unique to each transect position defined specific niches shaped by soil biogeochemistry. Co-expression networks of feature-level β-nearest-taxon indices revealed positive relationships in bacterial and OM feature contributions to community assembly. Our study provides critical insights into microbial communities at the forefront of hydrological changes in coastal areas that connect the land to lakes and oceans and remain vulnerable to changing weather patterns.

coastal ecosystems↗

Assessing the Potential Impact of River Chemistry on Arctic Coastal Production

The Arctic coastal margin receives a disproportionately large fraction of the global river discharge. The bio-geochemistry of the river water as it empties into the marine environment reflects inputs and processes that occur as the water travels from its headwaters. Climate-induced changes to Arctic vegetation and permafrost melt may impact river chemistry. Understanding the impact of river nutrients on coastal marine production, and how this may change in the future, are important for resource managers and community members who monitor and rely on coastal food resources. Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model we explore the impact of timing and river nutrient concentrations on primary production in each coastal Arctic region and then assess how this influences secondary production and particle fluxes supporting the benthic food web. Our results indicate that while the concentration of Arctic river nitrogen can have a significant impact on annual average nitrogen and primary production in the coastal Arctic, with production increases of up to 20% in the river influenced interior Seas, the timing of the river nutrient inputs into the marine environment appears less important. Bloom timing and partitioning between small and large phytoplankton were minimally impacted by both river nutrient concentration and timing, suggesting that in general, coastal Arctic ecosystem dynamics will continue to be primarily driven by light availability, rather than nutrients. Under a doubling river nutrient scenario, the percentage increase in the POC flux to the benthos on river influenced Arctic coastal shelves was 2-4 times the percentage increase in primary production, suggesting changes to the river nutrient concentration has the potential to modify the Arctic food web structure and dynamics. Generally, the nutrient-induced changes to primary production were smaller than changes previously simulated in response to ice reduction and temperature increase. However, in the Laptev Sea, the production increase resulting from a doubling of river nutrients exceeded the production increase simulated with an atmospheric warming scenario. Dissolved organic carbon is presently poorly represented in the model so its impact on production is hard to simulate. Applying established relationships between modeled DOC, total DOC, and light absorption we illustrate that DOC could play a very important role in modulating production. Our findings highlight the importance of developing more realistic river nutrient and discharge forcing for Earth System Models such that their impact on the critical Arctic coastal domain can be more adequately resolved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗