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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Risk Assessment of Obstacle Collision for UAVs under Off-nominal Conditions

Enabling operations of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in low-altitude airspace demands the need of robust risk monitoring framework for assessing the safety of airspace, ground structures and people. As widespread applications emerge, the need of risk assessment becomes increasingly important for UAV flights beyond visual line-of-sight, especially subjected to off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability or environmental disturbances such as wind gusts in an urban canyon. From a safety perspective, collision with obstacles can be detrimental not only to the vehicle and payload, but also to the structure and people on ground. Although it is safe to assume that approved UAVs would be equipped with collision avoidance systems, risk of collision which can be predicted for a flight trajectory even before the UAV encounters any obstacle is beneficial to resolve contingencies in its decision-making under off-nominal conditions. In this paper, a framework is presented for computing the risk of collision with obstacle based on a UAV’s predicted trajectory, proximity to static and dynamic obstacles, sub-system state-of-health and external wind conditions. The conditional probability of trajectory deviation is generated using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) based on on-board sensor measurements. Further, a kinematic 3-DOF model is implemented to compute deviation in UAV’s trajectory subjected to one case study of off-nominal condition i.e. wind gusts. Finally, the integrated risk factor is demonstrated on real data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center, in presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. The proposed approach would enable risk-informed decision making process for timely mitigation of current and future unsafe events.

Bayesian network↗

NASA NTRS2014

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Space Object Conjunction Assessment

This paper shows how satellite owner/operators may use sequential estimates of collision probability, along with a prior assessment of the base risk of collision, in a compound hypothesis ratio test to inform decisions concerning collision risk mitigation maneuvers. The compound hypothesis test reduces to a simple probability ratio test, which appears to be a novel result. The test satisfies tolerances related to targeted false alarm and missed detection rates. This result is independent of the method one uses to compute the probability density that one integrates to compute collision probability. A well-established test case from the literature shows that this test yields acceptable results within the constraints of a typical operational conjunction assessment decision timeline. Another example illustrates the use of the test in a practical conjunction assessment scenario based on operations of the International Space Station.

Navigation↗

NASA NTRS2024

International Space Station Satellite Deployment: Jettison Policy and Best Practices for Satellite Payload Developers

The International Space Station (ISS) deploys dozens of small satellites into Low Earth Orbit (LEO) each year. This presentation and associated paper cover the ISS Jettison Policy requirements and review/approval process, as well as best practices for satellite Payload Developers who have satellites manifested for deployment from ISS. Specifically, topics will include ISS Jettison Policy requirements to limit generation of orbital debris, limit risk of collision with ISS, and limit risk of collision with ISS visiting vehicles. The paper will include details on the ISS Program jettison candidate analysis and approval process, timelines for data submittal to ISS Program, resources for small satellite developers, and design & analysis recommendations for small satellite developers to maximize their likelihood of successful deployment from ISS. New Station deploy capabilities and ways the ISS Program addresses and facilitates innovations in small satellite technology, including propulsion systems, deorbit devices, constellation development, and novel tech demos, will also be explored. The 2024 session topic that best fits this abstract is Orbital Debris, SSA & STM. The ISS Jettison Policy intends to quantify and control the risks of deploying and operating small satellites, not only to ensure the safety of the humans flying in space, but also to preserve the orbital environment for world space activities and enable the significant benefits brought by such utilization. The ISS Program is committed to working with smallsat providers to address their challenges and enable safe, accessible, innovative missions. The Policy has grown with the industry, with each deploy yielding hard-earned lessons learned that improve our process – not only for the next deploy campaign, but with applicability and adaptability for future applications in LEO and beyond.

Jettison Policy↗

NASA NTRS2022

Preliminary Analysis of Separation Standards for Urban Air Mobility using Unmitigated Fast-Time Simulation

This research provides a preliminary analysis of various separation standards for Urban Air Mobility (UAM) operations. This study focuses on understanding and analyzing potential conflicts between UAM flights and conflicts between UAM and conventional aircraft. Fast-time simulations are conducted with a projected high-density of UAM traffic scenario and historical conventional non-UAM traffic flying under Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) or Visual Flight Rules (VFR) in Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) airspace. The conflicts are analyzed by examining losses of separation and near mid-air collisions of UAM flights and unmitigated risk of collision. A set of varied separation standards are used to investigate the impact of the new UAM operations on safety. The preliminary conflict analysis results will help inform separation standards development and in airspace and route design activities for future UAM operations.

Urban air mobility↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Analysis of Separation Standards for Urban Air Mobility using Unmitigated Fast-Time Simulation

Urban Air Mobility↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Operational Algorithm for Evaluating Satellite Collision Consequence

Risk is properly considered as the combination of likelihood and consequence; but conjunction assessment has usually limited itself to the consideration of only collision likelihood. When considered from an orbital regime protection perspective, the focus shifts to the question of the amount of debris that a collision might produce (the “consequence”). The present paper presents an operational algorithm for determining the expected amount of debris production should a conjunction result in a collision, and an assessment of the algorithm’s fidelity against a database of characterized objects.

Lechtenberg, Travis↗

NASA NTRS2019

An Operational Algorithm for Evaluating Satellite Collision Consequence

Lechtenberg, Travis↗

NASA NTRS2007

Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure

This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.

Carreno, Victor A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Sense and Avoid Safety Analysis for Remotely Operated Unmanned Aircraft in the National Airspace System. Version 5

This document describes a method to demonstrate that a UAS, operating in the NAS, can avoid collisions with an equivalent level of safety compared to a manned aircraft. The method is based on the calculation of a collision probability for a UAS , the calculation of a collision probability for a base line manned aircraft, and the calculation of a risk ratio given by: Risk Ratio = P(collision_UAS)/P(collision_manned). A UAS will achieve an equivalent level of safety for collision risk if the Risk Ratio is less than or equal to one. Calculation of the probability of collision for UAS and manned aircraft is accomplished through event/fault trees.

Carreno, Victor↗

NASA NTRS2016

Design for Survivability: An Approach to Assured Autonomy

Rapidly expanding unmanned air traffic includes and will continue to include non-cooperative participants. Non-cooperative behavior may be due to technical failure, a lack of appropriate equipment, a careless or malicious operator. Regardless of the cause, the outcome remains: growing density of non-cooperative traffic will increase the risk of collision between unmanned vehicles and aircraft carrying humans. As a result, the degraded safety of airspace may limit access to airspace, with adverse consequences for the traveling public and the economy. Because encounters with small non-cooperative objects, such as birds or wayward drones, can happen too rapidly for an external control system to mitigate them, it is imperative that the aircraft that carry humans survive encounters with non-cooperative vehicles. To-date, design for survivability has been practiced explicitly in the military domain. Survivability against collisions in civil aviation has been limited to tolerances against bird strikes; and these tolerances have proved inadequate on occasion. The growing risk of collision with unmanned vehicles now requires the development of survivability discipline for civilian transport aircraft. The new discipline must be infused into multidisciplinary design methods, on par with traditional disciplines. In this paper, we report on a preliminary study of survivability considerations for the civil aviation domain.

Alexandrov, Natalia M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of the Efficacy of Launch Collision Avoidance Analysis in Providing Risk Reduction for NASA

The objective of this document is to assess the value of collision on launch assessment (COLA, often referred to as “launch COLA”) practices and provide recommendations regarding its implementation for NASA robotic missions. The scope of this effort is limited to launch COLA screens against catalog objects that are either spacecraft or debris. No modifications to manned safety launch COLA practices are considered in this effort. An assessment of the value of launch COLA can be broken down into two fundamental questions: 1) Does collision during launch represent a significant risk to either the payload being launched or the space environment? 2) Can launch collision mitigation be performed in a manner that provides meaningful risk reduction at an acceptable level of operational impact? While it has been possible to piece together partial answers to these questions for some time, the first attempt to comprehensively address them is documented in reference (a), Launch COLA Operations: an Examination of Data Products, Procedures, and Thresholds, Revision A. This report is the product of an extensive study that addressed fundamental technical questions surrounding launch collision avoidance analysis and practice. The results provided in reference (a) will be cited throughout this document as these two questions are addressed. The premise of this assessment is that in order to conclude that launch COLA is a value-added activity, the answer to both of these questions must be affirmative. A “no” answer to either of these questions points toward the conclusion that launch COLA provides little or no risk mitigation benefit. The remainder of this assessment will focus on addressing these two questions.

launch COLA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Monocular Ranging for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems in the Far-Field

Recent proliferation of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) applications requires onboard collision avoidance systems to mitigate the risk of collision with non-cooperative aircraft and manned aircraft, which may not see sUAS in time to perform an avoidance maneuver. An attractive avenue for onboard collision avoidance is the utilization of machine vision cameras due to their low size, weight and power (SWaP) requirements. In this paper, we characterize the range performance of a machine vision system developed in-house and mounted onto an sUAS. The technique was designed to estimate the performance of a sense-and-avoid system to ensure that the sensing components meet the well-clear requirements for the chosen platform and avoidance strategy. Experimental flight-test data was acquired from test-flights flown along multiple collision geometries for two intruders: a general Aviation (GA) aircraft and a fixed-wing sUAS. The ownship and both intruders were instrumented with inertial navigation systems (INS) recording position and attitude information. The range at first detection, 𝑹𝟎, was extracted from in-flight imagery of head-on collision course geometry synchronized with INS data from both aircraft and ground-truth values extracted from the raw imagery. This initial detection distance, 𝑹𝟎, scales with atmospheric attenuation. Therefore, under clear sky conditions, the derived 𝑹𝟎 value represents the upper bound on the detection range achievable by the test configuration of the detector. Results indicate that the maximum initial detection distance for a 4k resolution action camera fitted with a 41º Field of View (FOV) lens is 2.763 ± 0.037 km for a GA aircraft and 0.881 ± 0.061 km for a fixed-wing sUAS, respectively. The in results this study suggest that a vision-based detect and track system may be analyzed using the sensor characterization and contextualized within aircraft well-clear volumes.

Chester V. Dolph↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Computing Methods for Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit Trajectory Design

Complicated mission design problems require innovative computational solutions. As spacecraft depart from a proposed Gateway in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO), recontact analysis is required to avoid risk of collision and ensure safe operations. Escape dynamics from NRHOs are governed by multiple gravitational bodies, yielding a trajectory design space that is exhaustively large. This paper summarizes the recontact analysis for departure from the NRHO and describes how the Deep Space Trajectory Explorer (DSTE) trajectory design software incorporates high performance cloud computing to compute and visualize the orbit design space. Recent focus on exploration missions to cislunar space has kindled accelerated interest in multibody orbit solutions. Trajectory analysis in the presence of multiple gravity fields is complex, and innovative computational tools are needed to simplify complicated design spaces, to generate large quantities of data quickly, and to visualize the output for user accessibility. The Gateway mission is a prime example. The Gateway1 is proposed as a human outpost in deep space. The current baseline orbit for the Gateway is a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit (NRHO) near the Moon.2 The NRHO exists in a regime that experiences the gravitational effects of the Earth and the Moon simultaneously, complicating orbit analysis. The mission design process benefits greatly from updated computational tools for multibody missions like the Gateway. As an example, consider the problem of assessing the risk of collision in an NRHO. As a staging location to missions to the lunar surface and beyond the Earth-Moon system, the Gateway will experience spacecraft and other objects regularly arriving and departing. Departing objects potentially include spent logistics modules, visiting crew vehicles, debris objects, wastewater particles, and cubesats. Each departure is governed by the dynamics of the Gateway orbit and the surrounding dynamical environment. Over time, any unmaintained object in such an orbit eventually departs due to the small instabilities associated with the NRHOs. A separation maneuver speeds the departure from the NRHO, but the effects of the maneuver on the spacecraft behavior depend on the location, magnitude, and direction of the burn. Escape dynamics from the NRHO with regard to these maneuver options open up an enormous potential trajectory design space where subtle changes in input can produce dramatically large changes in the results. Any departing object must avoid recontacting the Gateway as it leaves the lunar vicinity, and a recontact analysis thus involves a significant number of computations and extensive output data. To explore the dynamics of this extensive design space, the Deep Space Trajectory Explorer3 (DSTE) trajectory design software incorporates new High Performance Computing (HPC) services and novel interactive visualizations. This paper details the HPC and cloud infrastructure techniques that are implemented in the DSTE, applying the new capabilities to analysis of recontact risk with the Gateway in NRHO. NEAR RECTILINEAR HALO ORBITS The Gateway is planned to fly in a lunar NRHO as its baseline orbit. The NRHO families of orbits are subsets of the larger halo families, which originate from planar orbits near the L1 and L2 libration points; the Earth-Moon L2 halo family appears in Figure 1. Each halo orbit is perfectly periodic in the Circular Restricted 3-Body Problem (CR3BP) and becomes a quasi-periodic orbit in a higher fidelity ephemeris force model. The NRHOs are defined as those members of the halo family with bounded stability properties;2 they pass near the Moon at perilune and are nearly polar. Families exist with apolunes located both above the lunar north pole and above the lunar south pole; the Gateway is planned to reside in a southern L2 NRHO in a 9:2 resonance with the lunar synodic period. The 9:2 NRHO is characterized by a period of about 6.5 days, a perilune radius of about 3,500 km, and an apolune radius of about 71,000 km; it is strongly affected by the gravity of both the Earth and the Moon simultaneously. This NRHO offers extended communications with assets on the south pole of the Moon,4 as well as low-cost orbit maintenance and attitude control,5 favorable eclipse avoidance properties,6 and inexpensive transfers from Earth and to other destinations.5,7 The NRHO portion of the southern L2 halo family is highlighted in black in Figure 1, and the 9:2 NRHO appears in blue.

Phillips, Sean M.↗

NASA NTRS1999

NASA Lewis Launch Collision Probability Model Developed and Analyzed

There are nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the earth. These objects encompass manned objects, active and decommissioned satellites, spent rocket bodies, and debris. They range from a few centimeters across to the size of the MIR space station. Anytime a new satellite is launched, the launch vehicle with its payload attached passes through an area of space in which these objects orbit. Although the population density of these objects is low, there always is a small but finite probability of collision between the launch vehicle and one or more of these space objects. Even though the probability of collision is very low, for some payloads even this small risk is unacceptable. To mitigate the small risk of collision associated with launching at an arbitrary time within the daily launch window, NASA performs a prelaunch mission assurance Collision Avoidance Analysis (or COLA). For the COLA of the Cassini spacecraft, the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted an in-house development and analysis of a model for launch collision probability. The model allows a minimum clearance criteria to be used with the COLA analysis to ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. If, for any given liftoff time, the nominal launch vehicle trajectory would pass a space object with less than the minimum required clearance, launch would not be attempted at that time. The model assumes that the nominal positions of the orbiting objects and of the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time, and therefore, that any tracked object that comes within close proximity of the launch vehicle can be identified. For any such pair, these nominal positions can be used to calculate a nominal miss distance. The actual miss distances may differ substantially from the nominal miss distance, due, in part, to the statistical uncertainty of the knowledge of the objects positions. The model further assumes that these position uncertainties can be described with position covariance matrices. With these, and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution for the probability of collision is obtained. This solution provides clear insights into how each of the independent parameters affects the probability of collision. It shows that for a given maximum probability of collision and prior knowledge of the objects position uncertainties and sizes, only knowledge of the nominal closest approach distance is required to make the launch/no launch decision. The model was completed and used for the mission assurance COLA analysis for the Cassini spacecraft, which was launched on a Titan IV/Centaur rocket on October 15, 1997. Although the model was specifically developed for the Cassini mission, it is clearly applicable for other launches as well. The effect of COLA closures on the launch window is shown. The bar represents the entire 140-min launch window on October 15, 1997; the blackened areas represent the loss of launch opportunities due to the potential for a collision with an orbiting object.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Fuzzy Logic Approach for Separation Assurance and Collision Avoidance for Unmanned Aerial Systems

In the coming years, operations in low altitude airspace will vastly increase as the capabilities and applications of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) continue to multiply. Therefore, solutions to managing sUAS in highly congested airspace must be explored. In this study, a Fuzzy Logic based approach was used to help mitigate the risk of collisions between aircraft using separation assurance and collision avoidance techniques. The system was evaluated for its effectiveness to mitigate the risk of mid-air collisions between aircraft. This system utilizes only current state information and can resolve potential conflicts without knowledge of intruder intent. The avoidance logic was verified using formal methods and shown to select the correct action in all instances. Additionally, the Fuzzy Logic Controllers were shown to always turn the vehicles in the correct direction. Numerical testing demonstrated that the avoidance system was able to prevent a mid-air collision between two sUAS in all tested cases. Simulations were also performed in a three-dimensional environment with a heterogenous fleet of sUAS performing a variety of realistic missions. Simulations showed that the system was 99.98 effective at preventing mid-air collisions when separation assurance was disabled (unmitigated case) and 100 effective when enabled (mitigated case).

Verification & Validation of a Fuzzy Logic Control↗

DOE OSTI2023

Observing fish interactions with marine energy turbines using acoustic cameras

Abstract Marine current energy converters such as tidal and riverine turbines have the potential to provide reliable, clean power. The risk of collision of fishes with marine energy turbines is not yet well understood, in part due to the challenges associated with observing fish at turbine sites. Turbidity and light availability can limit the effectiveness of optical sensors like video cameras, motivating the use of acoustic cameras for this task. However, challenges persist in collecting and interpreting data acquired from acoustic cameras. Given the limited number of turbine deployments to date, it is prudent to draw on the application of acoustic cameras to monitor fish in other scenarios. This article synthesizes their use for other fisheries applications to inform best practices and set realistic expectations for the results of acoustic camera monitoring at turbine sites. We discuss six key tasks performed with acoustic cameras: detecting objects, identifying objects as fish, counting fish, measuring fish, classifying fish taxonomically and analysing fish behavior. Specific challenges to monitoring fish at turbine sites are discussed. This article is intended to serve as a reference for researchers, regulators and marine energy developers on effective use of acoustic cameras to monitor fish at turbine sites. The studies detailed in this article provide evidence that, in some scenarios, acoustic cameras can be used to inform the risk of fish collision with marine energy turbines but doing so requires careful study design and data processing.

Cotter, Emma↗

DOE OSTI2021

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator)

SSRS (Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator) is a generalizable, probabilistic, and predictive tool for wind energy developers, ecologists, wildlife managers and industry consultants to estimate the potential for soaring raptors to interact with operating wind turbines, without the need for site-specific data collection. Rapid expansion of wind energy development across the world has exposed the risk of turbine collisions for birds and bats. The risk to obligate soaring raptors such as golden eagles is of particular concern due to their small population and influence on ecological balance. Golden eagles rely heavily on updrafts to subsidize their flight, putting them in direct conflict with operational wind turbines that utilize the same wind resource. Understanding the behavior of soaring raptors with varying atmospheric conditions is crucial for predicting and mitigating the risk of turbine collision. This software contains a predictive movement model that simulates individual flight paths of golden eagles during updraft-subsidized long-distance flight, including migration. For a given set of atmospheric conditions, the model simulates thousands of eagles at turbine-scale spatial resolution (50m) to produce a relative presence density map. The simulated eagles rely on updrafts to pursue uninterrupted directional flight with minimal energy expenditure, following fluid-flow principles. The simulator includes a stochastic model of eagle behavior and a systematic method of accounting for spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric conditions. This framework only requires publicly available atmospheric data to estimate orographic and thermal updrafts, ensuring general usability.

Sandhu, Rimple↗

NASA NTRS2013

LightForce Photon-Pressure Collision Avoidance: Efficiency Assessment on an Entire Catalogue of Space Debris

The potential to perturb debris orbits using photon pressure from ground-based lasers has been confirmed by independent research teams. Two useful applications of this scheme are protecting space assets from impacts with debris and stabilizing the orbital debris environment, both relying on collision avoidance rather than de-orbiting debris. This paper presents the results of a new assessment method to analyze the efficiency of the concept for collision avoidance. Earlier research concluded that one ground based system consisting of a 10 kW class laser, directed by a 1.5 m telescope with adaptive optics, can prevent a significant fraction of debris-debris collisions in low Earth orbit. That research used in-track displacement to measure efficiency and restricted itself to an analysis of a limited number of objects. As orbit prediction error is dependent on debris object properties, a static displacement threshold should be complemented with another measure to assess the efficiency of the scheme. In this paper we present the results of an approach using probability of collision. Using a least-squares fitting method, we improve the quality of the original TLE catalogue in terms of state and co-state accuracy. We then calculate collision probabilities for all the objects in the catalogue. The conjunctions with the highest risk of collision are then engaged by a simulated network of laser ground stations. After those engagements, the perturbed orbits are used to re-assess the collision probability in a 20 minute window around the original conjunction. We then use different criteria to evaluate the utility of the laser-based collision avoidance scheme and assess the number of base-line ground stations needed to mitigate a significant number of high probability conjunctions. Finally, we also give an account how a laser ground station can be used for both orbit deflection and debris tracking.

laser↗