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At least 109 records · Page 6

Mu2e Target Thermal Test Project

The Mu2e experiment requires a production target capable of operating under extreme thermal conditions caused by an 8 GeV proton beam. This project’s objective supports the development of the Mu2e Production Target by testing the Stickman model’s thermal behavior. To test this, Angel Flores Luviano has assisted Jonathan Williams in progressing this project by contributing to the development of a Radiative Cooling Test Fixture (RCTF) that will be used to evaluate the thermal behavior of the new production target model. Engineering calculations were performed to analyze thermal performance and pressure drop within the cold well and water cooling circuit, and determine optimal sizing for key components of the water system. An engineering note was made to document the calculations. CAD models of the water circuit piping, thermocouple mount, and radiator chimney were developed, and prototype test rig components were fabricated using 3D printing. Future work will focus on conti nued RCTF development which includes control system integration, heater hardware design, and interfaces that can be scaled up to increase thermal capacity.

Luviano, Angel Flores [Unlisted]↗

Soil moisture, physical and chemical properties coincident with airborne SAR data collections for 2017 and 2019, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Soil samples were collected coincident with in-situ soil moisture and thaw depth measurements at NGEE Arctic study sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska in August 2017 and 2019 Field measurements and flights were conducted during both summers as a collaboration between the NASA ABoVE Project's Airborne SAR Campaign and the NGEE Arctic Project. Airborne overflights of L-band SAR instruments occurred during the soil sampling periods. Laboratory measurements of soil properties include bulk density, volumetric and gravimetric water content, carbon and nitrogen content, and particle size of mineral components. Soil samples processed and reported in this dataset were collected coincident with in situ measurements of soil moisture and thaw depth and airborne P-band and L-band SAR measurements as a collaboration between NGEE Arctic and NASA ABoVE. To learn more about how ABoVE protocols were applied for sampling site selection and making in situ measurements, see the following datasets: (2017: https://doi.org/10.5440/1423892 and 2019: https://doi.org/10.5440/1856042). Contained in this dataset are four .csv data files (including data dictionaries) and one zipped folder of *.pdf files.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort (with some overlap with Covid-19 pandemic) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Regulatory Development for Advanced Manufacturing

Advanced Methods of Manufacturing (AMM) are new, novel manufacturing processes that have the potential to bring significant cost and schedule reductions to many industries, including the nuclear industry. These methods produce components faster and cheaper than many traditional methods. This includes replacing obsolete components at currently operating plants as well as manufacturing components of all sizes for advanced reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Precise Motion Control of Hybrid Hydraulic Electric Architecture (HHEA)

Off-highway heavy-duty vehicles have been long-standing users of hydraulic systems for power transmission and control. However, traditional hydraulic systems suffer from significant energy losses which lead to increased operating costs and a larger carbon footprint due to higher CO2 emissions. Improving the efficiency of these mobile machines is crucial not only for reducing their environmental impact but also for saving billions of dollars in operating costs. Currently, the state-of-the-art Load Sensing Architecture uses throttling valves for control, which significantly reduces its efficiency and does not recuperate energy from over-running loads. Researchers have developed several architectures such as Common Pressure Rail systems, Displacement Control, STEAM, and Electrohydraulic Architecture to improve the efficiency of off-road mobile machines. However, each of these architectures has its drawbacks. To increase system efficiency and take advantage of electrification benefits, our research group has developed a novel Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA). The HHEA can significantly improve efficiency, decrease the size of electrical components, and maintain control performance. This new architecture has the potential to revolutionize the off-highway mobile machine industry and lead to a more sustainable future. The HHEA uses a set of common pressure rails to provide the majority of power to the actuators via power-dense hydraulics and uses electric motors for precise control and power modulation. In the context of off-road mobile machines, energy savings are undoubtedly important but it is equally important to consider the machines’ ability to perform tasks with precision and accuracy according to given commands. Therefore, precise motion control is of utmost importance to maintain the utility of Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA). The HHEA presents a unique challenge to motion control due to the discrete pressure changes that occur when the system switches between selected pressure rails. These changes are made to minimize system inefficiencies or to keep the system within the torque capability of the electric motor. Hence, it is important to solve the motion control challenges for HHEA. This thesis aims at developing an effective motion control strategy for HHEA. The dissertation presents a two-tiered control strategy for HHEA, comprising a high-level and a low-level controller. The primary responsibility of the high- level controller is to optimize energy efficiency by making informed pressure rail selections. On the other hand, the low-level controller is focused on achieving precise motion control of the HHEA, which is crucial for realizing the desired reference trajectories. To achieve this, the low-level controller utilizes a passivity-based backstepping integral controller as the nominal control, which handles the motion control between two pressure rail switches. Additionally, a separate least norm controller is utilized as a transition controller to manage motion control during pressure rail transitions. The effectiveness of the combined control strategy is demonstrated through experiments conducted on two hardware-in-the-loop testbeds. Furthermore, the HHEA is installed on the boom and stick actuators of a backhoe arm to build a Human-in-the-Loop system that a human operator can control. A real-time rail switching algorithm is developed to determine pressure rail switching based on present duty cycle information from the operator. Modifications have been made to the human-machine interface to achieve more intuitive control. Modifications include performing control in the task-oriented coordinates, incorporating pressure feedback to enhance control with physical interaction, and using velocity field control to simplify multi-degree-of-freedom tasks and to enable novice operators to perform them with reduced risk, improved efficiency, and productivity. The research in this dissertation makes significant contributions to the field of off-road mobile machine control, providing a novel and effective control strategy for the HHEA, and demonstrating the potential for simplified machine operation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Mu2e Production Target Thermal Test Project

The Mu2e experiment requires a production target that is capable of operating under extreme thermal conditions caused by an 8 GeV proton beam. This project’s objective supports the development of the Mu2e Pro- duction Target by testing the Stickman model’s thermal behavior. Angel Flores Luviano has assisted Jonathan Williams in progressing this project by contributing to the development of a Radiative Cooling Test Fixture (RCTF) that will be used to evaluate the thermal behavior of the new production target model. Engineering calculations were performed to an- alyze thermal performance and pressure drop within the cold well and wa- ter cooling circuit. These calculations also determined the optimal sizing for key components of the water system. An engineering note was made to document these calculations. CAD models of the water circuit piping, thermocouple mounting bars, and radiator chimney were developed, and prototype test rig components were fabricated using 3D printing. Future work will focus on continued RCTF development which includes control system integration, heater hardware design, and interfaces that can be scaled up to increase thermal capacity.

Flores Luviano, Angel Augusto [Unlisted, US]↗

Smart manufacturing approach to manufacture bulk nanocrystalline aluminum for lightweight applications

In this research, a smart manufacturing approach was used to enhance the mechanical properties of aluminum (Al) for lightweight applications. The smart manufacturing involved cryomilling of Al powders with and without 5 wt.% magnesium (Mg) powders for varying durations followed by a high-pressure cold spray (HPCS) additive manufacturing process to prepare bulk components. The morphological changes, crystallite size, and composition of the cryomilled powders and cold sprayed (CS’ed) components were examined using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), x-ray diffraction (XRD), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) techniques. The results showed that the crystallite size reduces with an increase in cryomilling time and the addition of Mg dopant. To test the mechanical properties of the bulk CS’ed components, microhardness tests were performed using a Vickers microhardness tester. Uniaxial tensile tests were also carried out to ascertain the material’s tensile properties. The mechanical testing results showed great improvement in the hardness and tensile strength of CS’ed Al–Mg samples as compared to pure Al samples. Subsequently, fractography analysis of the tensile failed samples was carried out to determine the nature of the failure. Here, the research article also discusses the inherent mechanisms for the improvement in mechanical properties of smart manufactured components as a result of Mg doping and cryomilling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Electrothermal Micromirror Adaptive Illumination

As part of the Cyclotron Road program, Helux Lighting aimed to develop a highly adaptive illumination source based on microelectromechanical system (MEMS) technology and next-generation solid state lighting. Solid state lighting has caused a paradigm shift in the industry. Developing systems that put light only where it is needed can reduce energy consumption and have an impact on the well-being of the population by eliminating glare and wasted light. Full control could also reduce the disruption of sensitive ecosystems caused by light pollution. The most advanced fixtures available today are based on mechanical components that are bulky and expensive. The track light is the only inexpensive lighting system that permits redirection and, in some cases, spot size by motorized optical components. The most advanced light fixtures today are composed of a strategically arranged array of LEDs. More recent developments in the research community include dynamic liquid crystal lenses but fail to realize simultaneous dynamic steering and spot size. In this project, Helux worked on the capability development of their controllable micromirror combined with state-of-the-art solid state lighting to electronically adjusting light position, brightness, and illumination area.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Quantum-Inspired Power System Reliability Assessment

To enable an in-depth study of power system operation and planning, the assessment of standard reliability indices is inevitable. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) approach is a broadly used method in replacing the analytical methods in reliability indices assessment. The accuracy of MCS, however, highly depends on the sampling size, and hence, a complicated system with large number of components requires a large sampling size and daunting computational effort. To address this shortcoming, we, in this paper attempt to take advantage of potentials of the quantum computing (QC) for power system reliability assessment by realizing the following contributions: 1) an innovative quantum model designed for reliability assessment; 2) a quantum circuit that achieves the quadratic speed up compared to the classical MCS method; 3) an efficient quantum amplitude estimation (QAE) algorithm to accurately evaluate the reliability indices. The accuracy and efficacy of the quantum reliability method are extensively verified and demonstrated on both radial and mesh distribution systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Critical material content in modern conventional U.S. vehicle electronics

Critical materials (CM) are vital to modern technology. Components of modern vehicles can be recycled to recover and reuse the CMs to help ensure a supply of these materials. Electronic components from a 2015 GMC Sierra truck (21 components) and 2016 Toyota Camry sedan (10 components) were analyzed for CMs. The components were processed via size reduction, aqua regia leaching and dissolution, and final solutions were analyzed for metal content. It was found that most electronic components of both vehicles contain CM. The most concentrated CM in the components were Sn, Nb, and Tb. Nd and Co were found in several of the magnetic components. CM economic value was found to be low compared to the overall value of the components, and the CM content would not allow for a viable pathway for recycling. Remanufacturing of components may be a more economic option of reuse in the future.

2015 GMC Sierra↗

Data for Spatial Analysis of Cell Patterning to Aid Genetic and Phenotypic Understanding of Grass Stomatal Density: A Case Study in Maize

Biological processes involve complex hierarchies where composite traits result from multiple component traits. However, holistically understanding of how sets of component traits interact to underpin genotype-to-phenotype relationships is generally lacking. Stomatal density (SD) is a tractable model system for exploring how high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data could be exploited by a new spatial analysis approach to better understand a developmentally and functionally important trait. SD is a composite trait, resulting from various components related to cell identity and size, which are themselves governed by a series of spatio-developmental processes. Data from 192 recombinant inbred lines of maize [Zea mays (L.)] were analyzed by a new stomatal patterning phenotype (SPP) to (1) describe the average spatial probability distribution of the nearest neighboring stomata; (2) derive a core set of component traits related to cell size, cell packing, and positional probabilities; (3) build a structural equation model of component traits underlying SD; and (4) identify stomatal patterning quantitative trait loci (QTL). The core set of SPP-derived traits explained 74% of the variation in SD. Analyzing SPP component traits allowed some loci previously identified as generic SD QTL to be recognized as specific to lateral versus longitudinal elements of stomatal patterning. Therefore, this study highlights how novel insights can be gained by decomposing a composite trait (e.g., SD) into a set of component traits that were present in HTP data but not previously exploited.

AI/ML↗

Manufacturing Bulk Nanocrystalline Al-3Mg Components Using Cryomilling and Spark Plasma Sintering

In the current study, pure aluminum (Al) powders were cryomilled with and without 3 wt.% pure magnesium (Mg) dopant for varying durations followed by spark plasma sintering (SPS) of powders to prepare bulk components with superior mechanical properties. The crystallite sizes were determined for powders and the bulk components by analyzing the X-ray diffraction (XRD) spectrum. The calculations indicated a reduction in crystallite size with the increase in the cryomilling duration. The results also showed a more significant decrease in the crystallite sizes for Al-3Mg samples than that of pure Al. The changes in the surface morphology of powders were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The elemental mapping analysis at nanoscale was carried out using Energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) in Scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM). The mechanical properties of the bulk components were assessed using a Vickers Microhardness tester. The test results demonstrated an improvement in the hardness of Mg-doped components. Higher hardness values were also reported with an increase in the cryomilling duration. This article discusses the mechanisms for the reduction in crystallite size for pure Al and Al-3Mg and its subsequent impact on improving mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Project Title: Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting NonPlanar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies

This is the final report for the project “Demonstration High Temperature Superconducting Non- Planar Stellarator Magnet with Advanced Manufactured Assemblies”, funded by DOE, and performed by Type One Energy from September, 2020, to March 2024 involving the Fusion Technology Institute at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, the Plasma Science and Fusion Center (PSFC) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS) to design and fabricate the first non-planar HTS (REBCO) coil for a high-field stellarator based on the SPARC tokamak’s VIPER cable concept. Stellarators at high fields make high-temperature superconducting magnets necessary for a compact fusion device. But the asymmetric and non-planar nature of its components, especially the magnets make it difficult for scalable producibility. To address these challenges, two promising technologies have emerged: advanced manufacturing (AM) for the supporting plates for forming the magnets, and high-temperature superconducting (HTS) cables inside the plates. AM has advanced enough to produce stellarator components with the necessary geometric complexity, size, and the precision, leading to potentially significant reductions in production time, cost, and waste. The cost of HTS tape has decreased dramatically, and progress in HTS planar magnet development has reached a point where it can be proposed for application to complex 3D non-planar magnets. The main objective of this project is to develop, demonstrate and pre-commercialize a novel, non-planar HTS coil shape that remains superconducting to achieve production scalable reductions in time and cost and performance. The proposed technology is based on the novel concept of a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil assembly. This project focuses on the design, fabrication, material optimization of cable design, and validation and demonstration of the high current carrying capability of superconducting magnets and their support in a complex 3D shape needed for application to stellarator magnetic plasma confinement. The specific objectives of this research program include: (1) The successful application of metal AM to build a precision sub-scale HTS nonplanar coil, (2) An HTS cable and cross-section design that can conform to the required nonplanar coil shape (bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and remains superconducting at an engineering current density of 1.35 kA/cm 2 at 77 K and 1 tesla at the conductor (5 kA in the cable). To achieve the above challenging goals, we have formed a multidisciplinary research team consisting of members from Type One Energy and UW-Madison, MIT PSFC and CFS with complementary skills and strong facilities. The team worked collaboratively on fundamental and applied research on the following three major technical areas: (1) Design, fabrication, and optimization of non-planar HTS Cable The ultimate goal of the project is to determine if commercial REBCO tapes and additive manufacturing can be used to fabricate high field (≥ 10T) non-planar coils with tight bending radii (≃ 100mm) and with a degradation of the critical current (Ic) smaller than 20% with respect to the expected performance. We started with shorter length cable to evaluate the scalability of the production process and eventually reached multiple turns for higher magnetic fields. Our findings suggest that a stellarator coil system of a relevant size, characterized by its asymmetric and non-planar components, can be fabricated using a formed cable in plate method. This system can be simulated using a large-scale modeling approach. The use of hybrid modeling 3 techniques will be pivotal in reducing the complexity of the model and in assessing expected performance in designs. (2) Modeling and simulation of the non-planar HTS Cable Multiphysics simulations are performed using the commercial software and are carried out in self-field conditions, involving 2D and 3D models and twisted around one slot of twist-pitched VIPER cable. Multiphysics simulations are mainly focused on the coil for the critical current evaluation, the magnetic field map, self-Lorentz forces and mechanical, and magnetothermal behavior and the quench dynamics. The detailed model and prediction of the superconducting performance of a stellarator-relevant demonstration cable from numerical simulations supports the results from the actual testing backing the results. A detailed description and results are provided in the later sections. (3) Design, fabrication, and optimization of support for the non-planar HTS Cable The team developed an additive manufactured (AM) coil positioning plate that formed into the required non-planar geometry (with bend radii as tight as 10-cm) and to acceptable tolerances required for a stellarator magnet: (+0.25-mm from ideal on dimensions of coil positioning plates and up to +1-mm from ideal for position of wound coil). The plate materials is also included in this selection process from fabrication and 3D printing perspective and commensurate with eventual application to a fusion reactor. From the cost effectiveness point of view, the HTS coil and plate has the potential to cost less than that made in conventional methods with less waste (<75% waste) reducing time (<50%) and cost (<50%), especially as the AM field matures. The application of advanced manufacturing in the construction of the support plates will also lead to cost reduction, as the cables can be easily replaced, thereby making the assembly modular. With such high primary cost and time savings, high current densities and magnetic field, the funded R&D work has validated the designs, proven the feasibility, and characterized the performance of the HTS coil and plate assembly, paving the way for a relevant-size stellarator coil system.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Hybrid Hydraulic-Electric Architecture (HHEA) for Mobile Machines (Final Report)

Traditionally, off-road mobile machines such as excavators and wheel loaders are primarily powered by hydraulics, and throttling valves are used to control their work circuits. In recent years, two general trends are towards more energy efficient systems and electrification. With electrification, both efficiency and control performance can be improved by the elimination of throttling losses and the use of high-bandwidth inverter control. Electrification is generally accomplished with Electro-hydraulic actuators (EHA) but they are limited to lower powered systems due to the high cost of electric machines capable of high power or high torque. This project proposes a new system architecture for off-road vehicles - Hybrid Hydraulic Electric Architecture (HHEA) to improve efficiency and control performance without requiring large electric machines. The widely applicable architecture combines hydraulic power and electric power in such a way that the majority of power is provided hydraulically while electric drives are used to modulate this power. In particular, HHEA utilizes multiple common pressure rails to transmit the majority of power and small electric machines to modulate the power. The energy-saving potential of the the HHEA has been validated for the work circuits of a variety of mobile machines, from small 5-ton excavators to medium sized 20-ton excavators and wheel loaders, and representative duty cycles to reduce energy input by 50-80% compared to the commercial state-of-art load-sensing systems. In addition, the corner power requirements of the electrical machines can be downsized by 85% compared to the EHA approach. Various tradeoff studies have also been conducted, including sensitivities to individual components performances, controllers, accumulator sizes, and variations of the system architecture etc. A control strategy has been developed to maintain or exceed the motion control precision compared to current systems. The motion control strategy consists of a nominal controller, based on a passivity-based backstepping design, and a transition controller, based on least-norn feedforward design. The nominal controller is used in between common pressure rail switches whereas the transition controller compensates for any disturbance that common pressure rail switchings inflict on the system. The control strategy has been experimentally validated on both a medium pressure (200bar) hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed and a high pressure (300+bar) HIL testbed. An efficient and power-dense integrated electric-hydraulic machine consisting of an axial flux electric machine and a radial hydrostatic piston hydraulic machine has been designed, constructed and tested. The machine has an active material power density of 6.1kW/kg, a rated speed of 12500 RPM, and a design efficiency of 85%. This is among the highest power density electric machines using conventional materials. While the integrated machine was designed for modulating the hydraulic power within the HHEA, it can also be used in other applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Type-I ELM mitigation by continuous lithium granule gravitational injection into the upper tungsten divertor in EAST

Large edge-localized modes (ELMs) were mitigated by gravitational injection of lithium granules into the upper X-point region of the EAST device with tungsten plasma-facing components. The maximum ELM size was reduced by ~ 70% in high βN H-mode plasmas. Large ELM stabilization was sustained for up to about 40 energy confinement times, with constant core radiated power and no evidence of high-Z or low-Z impurity accumulation. The lithium granules injection reduced the edge plasma pedestal density and temperature and their gradients, due to increased edge radiation and reduced recycling from the plasma-facing components. Ideal stability calculations using the ELITE code indicate that the stabilization of large ELMs correlates with improved stability of intermediate-n peeling-ballooning modes, due to reduced edge current resulting from the profile changes. The pedestal pressure reduction was partially offset by a core density increase, which resulted in a modest ~ 7% drop in core stored energy and normalized energy confinement time. We surmise that the remnant small ELMs are triggered by the penetration of multiple Li granules just past the separatrix, similar to small ELMs triggered by deuterium pellet [S. Futatani et al., Nucl. Fusion 54 (2014) 073008]. This study extends previous ELM elimination with Li powder injection [R. Maingi et al., Nucl. Fusion 58 (2018) 024003] in EAST because 1) use of small, dust-like powder and the related potential health hazards were eliminated, and 2) use of macroscopic granules should be more applicable to future devices, due to deeper penetration than dust particles, e.g. inside the separatrix with velocities ~ 10 m/s in EAST.

EAST↗

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Type-I ELM mitigation by continuous lithium granule gravitational injection into the upper tungsten divertor in EAST

Large edge-localized modes (ELMs) were mitigated by gravitational injection of lithium granules into the upper X-point region of the experimental advanced superconducting tokamak (EAST) device with tungsten plasma-facing components. The maximum ELM size was reduced by ~70% in high β N H-mode plasmas. Large ELM stabilization was sustained for up to about 40 energy confinement times, with constant core radiated power and no evidence of high-Z or low-Z impurity accumulation. The lithium granules injection reduced the edge plasma pedestal density and temperature and their gradients, due to increased edge radiation and reduced recycling from the plasma-facing components. Ideal stability calculations using the ELITE code indicate that the stabilization of large ELMs correlates with improved stability of intermediate-n peeling-ballooning modes, due to reduced edge current resulting from the profile changes. The pedestal pressure reduction was partially offset by a core density increase, which resulted in a modest ~7% drop in core stored energy and normalized energy confinement time. We surmise that the remnant small ELMs are triggered by the penetration of multiple Li granules just past the separatrix, similar to small ELMs triggered by deuterium pellet Futatani et al (2014 Nucl. Fusion 54 073008). This study extends previous ELM elimination with Li powder injection Maingi et al (2018 Nucl. Fusion 58 024003) in EAST because (1) use of small, dust-like powder and the related potential health hazards were eliminated, and (2) use of macroscopic granules should be more applicable to future devices, due to deeper penetration than dust particles, e.g. inside the separatrix with velocities ~10 m s -1 in EAST.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Spatial analysis of cell patterning to aid genetic and phenotypic understanding of grass stomatal density: A case study in maize

Biological processes involve complex hierarchies where composite traits result from multiple component traits. However, holistically understanding of how sets of component traits interact to underpin genotype-to-phenotype relationships is generally lacking. Stomatal density (SD) is a tractable model system for exploring how high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) data could be exploited by a new spatial analysis approach to better understand a developmentally and functionally important trait. SD is a composite trait, resulting from various components related to cell identity and size, which are themselves governed by a series of spatio-developmental processes. Data from 192 recombinant inbred lines of maize [Zea mays (L.)] were analyzed by a new stomatal patterning phenotype (SPP) to (1) describe the average spatial probability distribution of the nearest neighboring stomata; (2) derive a core set of component traits related to cell size, cell packing, and positional probabilities; (3) build a structural equation model of component traits underlying SD; and (4) identify stomatal patterning quantitative trait loci (QTL). The core set of SPP-derived traits explained 74% of the variation in SD. Analyzing SPP component traits allowed some loci previously identified as generic SD QTL to be recognized as specific to lateral versus longitudinal elements of stomatal patterning. Therefore, this study highlights how novel insights can be gained by decomposing a composite trait (e.g., SD) into a set of component traits that were present in HTP data but not previously exploited.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗