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At least 109 records · Page 6

White Paper on Consequence Assessment of Transport of Hazardous Materials for PHMSA

This document describes a proposed methodology for assessing the consequences of accidents during transport of hazardous materials in the form of compressed gases as liquids in the United States. A quantitative population effect risk metric for a transport plan in terms of population numbers and effects is described. Quantitative results provide the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) a means for evaluating routes, times, and other plans for material movement. Hazard releases are modeled with a consequence assessment tool maintained by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) that uses the Second-Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) atmospheric transport and dispersion model. LandScan TM 2016 USA Day and Night distributions are used for population data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Domain-Specific Language for High-Consequence Control Software

While most software development for control systems is directed at what the system is supposed to do (i.e., function), high-consequence controls must account for what the system is not supposed to do (i.e., safety, security and reliability requirements). A Domain Specific Language (DSL) for high-consequence digital controls is proposed. As with similar tools for the design of controls, the DSL will have plug-in modules for common controller functions. However, the DSL will also augment these modules with attendant "templates" that aid in the proof of safety, security and reliability requirements, not available in current tools. The object is to create a development methodology that makes construction of high-assurance control systems as easy as controls that are designed for function alone.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Building Fire Consequence Index at Sandia National Laboratories

The intent of the Building Fire Consequence Index (BFCI) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is to provide a method to rank buildings based on the consequence of a fire in that building. This indexing tool will be used to determine the frequency a building's fire protection assessment (FPA) will be performed. Per DOE O 420.1C Chg. 1, Facility Safety, a FPA must be conducted annually (for facilities with a replacement value in excess of $100 million, facilities considered a high hazard, or those in which vital programs are involved), every three years (for remaining low and ordinary hazard facilities), or at a frequency with appropriate justification approved by the Depaitinent of Energy (DOE) head of field element. The BFCI provides a method for a graded approach utilizing a scoring criteria for various categories such as replacement plant value, building content value, hazards, mission dependency index, etc. when assigning FPA frequencies1.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Postclosure Criticality Consequence Analysis - Scoping Phase

Commercial generation of energy via nuclear power plants in the United States (U.S.) has generated thousands of metric tons of spent nuclear fuel (SNF), the disposal of which is the responsibility of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) (Nuclear Waste Policy Act of 1982). Any repository licensed to dispose of the SNF must meet requirements regarding the long-term performance of the repository. In evaluating the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently being used to store the SNF but were not designed for permanent disposal. As part of a multiyear plan that is currently being developed for the DOE, a two-phase study has been initiated to examine the potential consequences, with respect to long-term repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. Phase I, a scoping phase, consists of generating an approach intended to be a starting point for the development of the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be required either to exclude criticality from or include criticality in a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate. The Phase I approach will be used to guide the analyses and simulations done in Phase II to further the development of these modeling tools and techniques as well as the overall knowledge base. The purpose of this report is to document the approach created during Phase I. The study discussed herein focuses on the consequences of criticality in a DPC; it does not address the probability of occurrence of a criticality event. This approach examines two types of criticality events for SNF disposed of in a single type of DPC: a steady-state criticality and a transient criticality. The steady-state critical event is characterized by a relatively low constant power output over 10,000 years, while the transient critical event is characterized by a power spike that lasts on the order of seconds. Possible effects of the criticality are an increase in the radionuclide inventory; an increase in temperature; and a change in the chemistry inside the waste package, along with a change in radionuclide solubilities, fuel degradation rates, and steel corrosion rates. Additionally, for transient criticality the possibility of mechanical damage to the engineered and natural barriers also exists.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Preliminary Radioisotope Screening for Off-site Consequence Assessment of Advanced Non-LWR Systems

Currently a set of 71 radionuclides are accounted for in off-site consequence analysis for LWRs. Radionuclides of dose consequence are expected to change for non-LWRs, with radionuclides of interest being type-specific. This document identifies an expanded set of radionuclides that may need to be accounted for in multiple non-LWR systems: high temperature gas reactors (HTGRs); fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactors (FHRs); thermal-spectrum fluoride-based molten salt reactors (MSRs); fast-spectrum chloride-based MSRs; and, liquid metal fast reactors with metallic fuel (LMRs) Specific considerations are provided for each reactor type in Chapter 2 through Chapter 5, and a summary of all recommendations is provided in Chapter 6. All identified radionuclides are already incorporated within the MACCS software, yet the development of tritium-specific and carbon-specific chemistry models are recommended.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

2021 Consequence Management Hotline Drill After Action Report

In March 2021, a functional area drill was held at the Remote Sensing Laboratory–Nellis that focused on using CBRNResponder and the Digital Field Monitoring (DFM) tablets for sample hotline operations and the new paper Sample Control Forms (SCFs) for sample collection. Participants included staff trained and billeted as sample control specialists and Consequence Management Response Team (CMRT) field monitoring personnel. Teams were able to successfully gather and transfer samples to the sample control hotline staff through the manual process, though there were several noted areas for improvement. In July and October 2021, two additional functional area drills were held at Sandia National Laboratories that focused on field sample collection and custody transfer at the sample control hotline for the Consequence Management (CM) Radiological Assistance Program (RAP) program. The overarching goal of the drills was to evaluate the current CM process for sample collection, sample drop off, and sample control using the CBRNResponder mobile and web-based applications. The July 2021 drill had an additional focus to have a subset of samples analyzed by the local analytical laboratory, Radiation Protection Sample Diagnostics (RPSD) laboratory, to evaluate the Laboratory Access portal on CBRNResponder. All three drills were able to accomplish their objectives however, there were several issues noted (Observations: 25 Urgent, 29 Important, and 22 Improvement Opportunities). The observations were prioritized according to their impact on the mission as well as categorized to align with the programmatic functional area required to address the issue. This report provides additional detail on each observation for skillset/program leads and software developers to consider for future improvement or mandatory efforts.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks (Final Technical Report)

This is the final technical report from the first phase of a project that changed institutions. The grant was titled “Understanding spatial and temporal drivers of variation in tree hydraulic processes and their consequences for climate feedbacks.” The overall objectives of this project were to (1) provide model‐compatible datasets of key plant hydraulic traits and status for model evaluation, parameterization and validation and (2) use these data to pinpoint ecosystem responses to a changing hydroclimate by addressing both long‐term climatic drying and episodic extreme droughts. We planned to address the objectives with three research activities to quantify plant responses to chronic water stress and episodic drought: (1) generate high frequency observations of soil and plant hydraulic data across different landscape positions at multiple sites, (2) quantify plant hydraulic trait plasticity in response to experimental soil moisture reduction in situ in two central hardwood forests, and (3) simulate the carbon consequences of incorporating plant hydrodynamics and plant acclimation to water stress in the DOE‐sponsored plant hydrodynamics model FATES‐HYDRO. As of the transfer of this project to another institution, we had made substantial progress on activities 1 and 2, and started activity 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems: 2024 Mission Campaign White Paper

This Sandia National Laboratories Mission Campaign (MC) seeks to create the technical basis that allows national leaders to efficiently assess and manage the digital assurance of high consequence systems. We will call for transformative research that enables efficient (1) development of provably secure systems and secure integration of untrusted products, (2) intelligent threat mitigation, and (3) digital risk-informed engineering trade-offs. Ultimately, this MC will impact multiple national security missions; it will develop an informed Digital Assurance for High Consequence Systems (DAHCS) community and expand Sandia partnerships to build this national capability.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Consequence Management Cobalt Magnet 2022 Laboratory Analysis: After Action Report

On May 16-20, 2022, federal mission partners (e.g., DOE Consequence Management, CDC, FDA, FBI, DHS) as well as integrated state, local, tribal, and territorial governments took part in Cobalt Magnet 22 (CM22), a large-scale, week-long radiological incident exercise in Austin, Texas, that linked several important national assets (National Search Program, Radiological Assistance Program, and Consequence Management [CM] personnel) into a single response effort. The exercise had nine (9) overarching Objectives and an additional 162 associated Critical Tasks for all the participating organizations. In total, 13 National Core Capabilities spanning 5 Mission Areas were represented in the final exercise. This exercise enabled a full range of capabilities to be fielded together and examine the operational connection between major assets, discover any resource shortages associated with conducting multiple mission areas simultaneously or in close succession, and identify any challenges related to leadership. This report summarizes nearly 100 successes and observations provided from players and controllers supporting the LA Division, Fly Away Laboratory (FAL) and Gamma Spectroscopist operations. The observations were categorized to align with the FRMAC programmatic functional areas to consider for future improvements: Logistics, CBRN Responder, Laboratory Analysis, Sampling and Monitoring, Health and Safety, Gamma Spectroscopist Operations, Fly Away Laboratory, and the FRMAC Interdivision Interoperability Group (FIIG).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiological Releases from Novel Fuel Forms in Advanced Reactors During Severe Accidents for Consequence Analyses

Various advanced reactor developers are exploring the potential for reductions in the size of physical security forces and emergency planning zones. These reductions are based on robust fuel forms and inherently safe reactor designs. However, such reductions in physical protection measures could increase the risk of sabotage. To assess the possibility of reducing these measures, sabotage-induced radiological consequence analyses were carried out. These analyses considered accident scenarios that were beyond design basis accidents and overly conservative (Shah, 2025a; Shah, 2025b; Shah and Hartanto, 2026), yielding very large release fractions. These fractions, which can be used to evaluate physical protection and emergency planning requirements, have been crudely determined and applied as demonstrations for a sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025a), a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025b), a heat pipe–cooled reactor (HPR) (Shah and Hartanto, 2025c), and a molten salt–cooled reactor (MSR) (Shah et al., 2026). A Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) team used MELCOR—a fully integrated severe accident analysis code—to demonstrate the code’s capability to analyze advanced (i.e., not light water–cooled) reactors (including a fluoride salt–cooled high-temperature reactor [FHR]) and calculate radiological releases to the environment during severe accidents (Wagner et al., 2022a, 2022b, 2022c, 2023a, and 2023b). Although the analyses were carried out to demonstrate MELCOR’s growing capability, the release source terms were estimated for advanced reactors, providing valuable insights into the accident progression and radiological releases. These findings from prior SNL studies, including estimated source terms and related sensitivity studies, were leveraged to derive source terms for postulated sabotage-induced accidents. Insights from these sensitivity studies informed the scaling of SNL’s estimated source terms for the defined accident scenarios. The derived release fractions for the severe accident scenarios for the respective reactor designs can be used to perform more nuanced dose consequence analyses to evaluate the reactors’ physical protection and emergency planning zone requirements. These analyses are in accordance with the risk-informed, performance-based approach proposed under 10 CFR Part 53. This study builds on the prior source term analyses and associated sensitivity studies by SNL to derive time-dependent and design-informed release fractions. Section 2 describes the diverse advanced reactor designs analyzed by the SNL team. Section 3 discusses the severe accident analyses, the release fractions calculated, and the limitations and assumptions of the demonstration project. Section 4 presents the release percentages derived for the hypothetical sabotage-induced severe accidents at the advanced reactors. Section 5 summarizes the study’s findings and conclusions.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Worst Case Sabotage Consequence Modeling for Advanced Reactors

Under proposed rulemaking by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, advanced reactor licensees may qualify for a reduction in onsite responders if the consequences from a sabotage attack do not exceed 25 rem at the reactor site boundary 2 hours after a release occurs. This work presents a preliminary assessment of the feasibility of meeting the 25 rem at the site boundary criteria. Using advanced reactor radionuclide inventories radiological release estimates created by collaborators at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, the MACCS consequence analysis code was used to investigate the distance at the dose from hypothetical sabotage events reaches 25 rem for different advanced reactor technologies. It was found that the distance to 25 rem depended heavily on sampled weather conditions and sabotage release fractions, and further refinement of release fractions and MACCS modeling parameters is recommended.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ectomycorrhizal Plant-Fungal Co-invasions as Natural Experiments for Connecting Plant and Fungal Traits to Their Ecosystem Consequences

Introductions and invasions by fungi, especially pathogens and mycorrhizal fungi, are widespread and potentially highly consequential for native ecosystems, but may also offer opportunities for linking microbial traits to their ecosystem functions. In particular, treating ectomycorrhizal (EM) invasions, i.e., co-invasions by EM fungi and their EM host plants, as natural experiments may offer a powerful approach for testing how microbial traits influence ecosystem functions. Forests dominated by EM symbiosis have unique biogeochemistry whereby the secretions of EM plants and fungi affect carbon (C) and nutrient cycling; moreover, particular lineages of EM fungi have unique functional traits. EM invasions may therefore alter the biogeochemistry of the native ecosystems they invade, especially nitrogen (N) and C cycling. By identifying “response traits” that favor the success of fungi in introductions and invasions (e.g., spore dispersal and germination) and their correlations with “effect traits” (e.g., nutrient-cycling enzymes) that can alter N and C cycling (and affect other coupled elemental cycles), one may be able to predict the functional consequences for ecosystems of fungal invasions using biogeochemistry models that incorporate fungal traits. Here, we review what is already known about how EM fungal community composition, traits, and ecosystem functions differ between native and exotic populations, focusing on the example of EM fungi associated with species of Pinus introduced from the Northern into the Southern Hemisphere. We develop hypotheses on how effects of introduced and invasive EM fungi may depend on interactions between soil N availability in the exotic range and EM fungal traits. We discuss how such hypotheses could be tested by utilizing Pinus introductions and invasions as a model system, especially when combined with controlled laboratory experiments. Finally, we illustrate how ecosystem modeling can be used to link fungal traits to their consequences for ecosystem N and C cycling in the context of biological invasions, and we highlight exciting avenues for future directions in understanding EM invasion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Biological Consequences of Marine Energy Development on Marine Animals

Marine energy devices harness power from attributes of ocean water to form a sustainable energy source. Knowledge gaps remain about whether marine energy systems can affect the environment, adding another threat to animal populations and habitats already under pressure from climate change and anthropogenic activities. To date, potential environmental effects have been studied under the scope of stressor–receptor interactions, where moving parts of, or emissions from, a system could harm the animals, habitats, and natural processes. While crucial for understanding effects and identifying knowledge gaps, this approach misses a holistic view of what animals may experience in the presence of marine energy systems. We look at six biological consequences and forces that drive the health of an animal population and the effects expected from marine energy development: success of early life stages; changes in competitive capabilities; growth and survival based on food availability; susceptibility to predators; injury or death; and reproductive success. We use case studies to develop this approach, focusing on a variety of marine animals. An approximate level of risk is assigned for each interaction based on the biological consequences. This work highlights the need to examine the effects of marine energy development on animal populations within their natural habitats.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Elevated central venous pressure: A consequence of exercise training-induced hypervolemia

Resting plasma volumes, and arterial and central venous pressures (CVP) were measured in 16 men before and after exercise training to determine if training-induced hypervolemia could be explained by a change in total vascular capacitance. In addition, resting levels of plasma vasopressin (AVP), atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), aldosterone (ALD), and norepinephrine (NE) were measured before and after training. The same measurements of vacular volume, pressures, and plasma hormones were measured in 8 subjects who did not undergo exercise and acted as controls. The exercise training program consisted of 10 weeks of controlled cycle exercise for 30 min/d, 4 d/wk at 75 to 80 percent of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). A training effect was verified by a 20 percent increase in VO2max, a resting bradycardia, and a 370 ml (9 percent) increase in blood volume. Mean arterial blood pressure was unaltered by exercise training, but resting CVP increased. The percent change in blood volume from before to after training was linearly related to the percent change in CVP. As a consequence of elevations in both blood volume and CVP, the volume-to-pressure ratio was essentially unchanged following exercise training. Plasma AVP, ANP, ALD, and NE were unaltered. Results indicate that elevated CVP is a consequence of training-induced hypervolemia without alteration in total effective venous capacitance. This may represent a resetting of the pressure-volume stimulus-response relation for regulation of blood volume.

Convertino, Victor A.↗

Consequences of a hydrous mantle for Venus tectonics - Predictions for Magellan

The consequences of a Venus mantle enriched in water relative to the earth are considered. If the moon-forming impact hypothesis is correct, earth may have lost substantial volatiles. Venus, however, experienced no such impact and is therefore likely to be relatively more water-rich. It is demonstrated that a higher abundance of water in the Venus mantle has the effect of inhibiting the rise of crust-forming melts and volatiles to the surface, which results in a thin stable crust, a dry, stiff upper mantle, and restricted magmatism. Conduction through a shallow thermal lithosphere dominates the removal of heat from the interior, and flow in the mantle is strongly coupled to the surface deformation. Current observations of Venus are consistent with this model. A review of the consequences of this model makes it possible to make predictions for the Magellan radar images.

Williams, David R.↗

Possible observational consequences of primordial binaries in globular clusters

The paper investigates the observational consequences of the evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster. For those binary systems which begin mass transfer at orbital periods of less than about 1 d, the system is expected to evolve to a contact binary stage and to eventually merge to form a single star. At longer orbital periods, the binary system will enter into a common envelope stage. For periods less than about 10 d, the system is likely to merge, and the outcome of the evolution is a single red giant star. For systems characterized by orbital periods greater than about 15 d, a detached red dwarf-white dwarf binary system is expected to change. As a consequence of the mergers, a range in masses for the red giant stars is possible, leading to a color spread on the RGB of the color magnitude diagram. The luminosity function of stars at high luminosities is expected to steepen as a result of tidal interaction in the binary. It is suggested that the formation of cataclysmic variables via primordial binaries is expected only in loosely bound clusters of low-velocity dispersion.

Taam, Ronald E.↗

Near-Sun solar wind consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena observed by radio scintillation measurements

Since radio propagation measurements using either natural or spacecraft radio signals are used for probing the solar wind in the vicinity of the sun, they represent a key tool for studying the interplanetary consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena. New information on the near sun consequences was obtained from radio scintillation observations of coherent spacecraft signals. The results covering density fluctuations, fractional density fluctuations, coronal streamers, heliospheric current sheets, coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks are reviewed. A joint ICE S-band (13 cm wavelength) Doppler scintillation measurement with the SOHO white-light coronograph (LASCO) is described.

Woo, Richard↗

Tests and consequences of disk plus halo models of gamma-ray burst sources

The gamma-ray burst observations made by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and by previous experiments are still consistent with a combined Galactic disk (or Galactic spiral arm) plus extended Galactic halo model. Testable predictions and consequences of the disk plus halo model are discussed here; tests performed on the expanded BATSE database in the future will constrain the allowed model parameters and may eventually rule out the disk plus halo model. Using examples, it is shown that if the halo has an appropriate edge, BATSE will never detect an anisotropic signal from the halo of the Andromeda galaxy. A prediction of the disk plus halo model is that the fraction of the bursts observed to be in the 'disk' population rises as the detector sensitivity improves. A careful reexamination of the numbers of bursts in the two populations for the pre-BATSE databases could rule out this class of models. Similarly, it is predicted that different satellites will observe different relative numbers of bursts in the two classes for any model in which there are two different spatial distribiutions of the sources, or for models in which there is one spatial distribution of the sources that is sampled to different depths for the two classes. An important consequence of the disk plus halo model is that for the birthrate of the halo sources to be small compared to the birthrate of the disk sources, it is necessary for the halo sources to release many orders of magnitude more energy over their bursting lifetime than the disk sources. The halo bursts must also be much more luminous than the disk bursts; if this disk-halo model is correct, it is necessary to explain why the disk sources do not produce halo-type bursts.

Smith, I. A.↗