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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Analytical solution and parameter estimation for heat of wetting and vapor adsorption during spontaneous imbibition in tuff

An analytical expression is derived for the thermal response observed during spontaneous imbibition of water into a dry core of zeolitic tuff. Sample tortuosity, thermal conductivity, and thermal source strength are estimated from fitting an analytical solution to temperature observations during a single laboratory test. Here, the closed-form analytical solution is derived using Green's functions for heat conduction in the limit of “slow” water movement; that is, when advection of thermal energy with the wetting front is negligible. The solution has four free fitting parameters and is efficient for parameter estimation. Laboratory imbibition data used to constrain the model include a time series of the mass of water imbibed, visual location of the wetting front through time, and temperature time series at six locations. The thermal front reached the end of the core hours before the visible wetting front. Thus, the predominant form of heating during imbibition in this zeolitic tuff is due to vapor adsorption in dry zeolitic rock ahead of the wetting front. The separation of the wetting front and thermal front in this zeolitic tuff is significant, compared to wetting front behavior of most materials reported in the literature. This work is the first interpretation of a thermal imbibition response to estimate transport (tortuosity) and thermal properties (including thermal conductivity) from a single laboratory test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

A constraint on historic growth in global photosynthesis due to rising CO 2

Theory predicts that rising CO 2 increases global photosynthesis, a process known as CO 2 fertilization, and that this is responsible for much of the current terrestrial carbon sink. The estimated magnitude of the historic CO 2 fertilization, however, differs by an order of magnitude between long-term proxies, remote sensing-based estimates and terrestrial biosphere models. Here we constrain the likely historic effect of CO 2 on global photosynthesis by combining terrestrial biosphere models, ecological optimality theory, remote sensing approaches and an emergent constraint based on global carbon budget estimates. Our analysis suggests that CO 2 fertilization increased global annual terrestrial photosynthesis by 13.5 ± 3.5% or 15.9 ± 2.9 PgC (mean ± s.d.) between 1981 and 2020. Our results help resolve conflicting estimates of the historic sensitivity of global terrestrial photosynthesis to CO 2 and highlight the large impact anthropogenic emissions have had on ecosystems worldwide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Study of Key 57 Ni ⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 58 Cu Resonances to Understand 44 Ti Nucleosynthesis in Supernovae

An important validation of nucleosynthesis models of core-collapse supernovae is the comparison of radioisotope predictions to abundances inferred from observations of 𝛾 rays emitted in remnants. One such isotope, 44 Ti, is especially sensitive to the 57 Ni ⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 58 Cu reaction rate. Despite this importance, no experimentally constrained rate exists for this reaction. It is thus crucial to determine this rate. GRETINA ORRUBA: Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies (GODDESS) was used along with the first use of the Enge split-pole spectrograph at Notre Dame to measure structure properties of 58 Cu via the 58 Ni ⁢( 3 He,𝑡)⁢ 58 Cu reaction. Here, the combined analysis of these complementary data sets allows for precise determination of 58 Cu level energies, and spins are constrained from analysis of the 𝛾-ray decay. 44 Ti yields were found to change by over 25% compared to previous estimates in model calculations using the new experimentally constrained reaction rate.

energy levels↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model validation and selection in metabolic flux analysis and flux balance analysis

13C-Metabolic Flux Analysis (13C-MFA) and Flux Balance Analysis (FBA) are widely used to investigate the operation of biochemical networks in both biological and biotechnological research. Both methods use metabolic reaction network models of metabolism operating at steady state so that reaction rates (fluxes) and the levels of metabolic intermediates are constrained to be invariant. They provide estimated (MFA) or predicted (FBA) values of the fluxes through the network in vivo, which cannot be measured directly. These fluxes can shed light on basic biology and have been successfully used to inform metabolic engineering strategies. Several approaches have been taken to test the reliability of estimates and predictions from constraint-based methods and to compare alternative model architectures. Despite advances in other areas of the statistical evaluation of metabolic models, such as the quantification of flux estimate uncertainty, validation and model selection methods have been underappreciated and underexplored. We review the history and state-of-the-art in constraint-based metabolic model validation and model selection. Applications and limitations of the χ 2 -test of goodness-of-fit, the most widely used quantitative validation and selection approach in 13C-MFA, are discussed, and complementary and alternative forms of validation and selection are proposed. A combined model validation and selection framework for 13C-MFA incorporating metabolite pool size information that leverages new developments in the field is presented and advocated for. Finally, we discuss how adopting robust validation and selection procedures can enhance confidence in constraint-based modeling as a whole and ultimately facilitate more widespread use of FBA in biotechnology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Factors Governing Cloud Growth and Entrainment Rates in Shallow Cumulus and Cumulus Congestus During GoAmazon2014/5

Shallow cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds play an important role in the large-scale tropical circulation by mixing heat and moisture vertically and preconditioning the environment for deeper convection. Different representations of these shallow clouds account for much of the spread in General Circulation Model (GCMs) climate sensitivity, potentially because of how entrainment is represented in GCM parameterizations. This study uses observations from the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) mobile facility deployed at Manacapuru, Brazil, during the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) Campaign. Environmental thermodynamic profiles and observations of cloud top height (CTH) are used to constrain an entraining plume model to estimate bulk entrainment rates (ERs). Estimates of CTH are obtained from a combination of vertically pointing W-band ARM cloud radar and 1,290 MHz Radar Wind Profiler observations. A combination of radiosonde, microwave radiometer profiler, and microwave radiometer observations provides new best estimates of the environmental thermodynamic state. We quantify uncertainty in ERs considering uncertainties in estimated CTH, environmental thermodynamic properties, and assumed initial parcel characteristics. We find ERs ranging from 0.16 to 2.8 km -1 with an average of 0.58 ± 0.10 km -1 over a selected population of 469 shallow cumulus and cumulus congestus clouds. Using the retrieved estimates of ER, we evaluate several entrainment closures that are currently used in atmospheric models or have been proposed based on theory or large eddy simulation. Finally, entrainment rates in cumulus clouds are weakly correlated with low-level buoyancy, cloud depth, and cloud size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Wetter California Projected by CMIP6 Models With Observational Constraints Under a High GHG Emission Scenario

As the world's fifth-largest economy entity, California (CA) is vulnerable to climate changes especially the magnitude of winter (wet season) precipitation that is closely linked to regional drought severity, vegetation growth, and wildfire activities. However, the fate of CA precipitation in the future remains highly uncertain, for example, the state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) projected –3% to +42% and –27% to +63% precipitation changes in northern and central-southern CA, respectively, under the high greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenario (SSP585). In this work, we applied the Pareto optimality concept and used observed teleconnection patterns (causal relationships between ocean regions and CA precipitation) to mechanistically constrain CMIP6 projected CA precipitations. We estimated that precipitation will robustly increase by 0.4–1.3 mm d –1 (10–34%) over northern CA and increase by 0.1–0.5 mm d –1 (7–32%) over central-southern CA by the end of the 21st century compared with present-day. Up to 71% of ESM projection uncertainties were reduced mainly due to the strong and consistent causal relationship between North American west coast sea level pressure and CA precipitation in both observations and CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that teleconnection patterns are powerful mechanistic constraints that can help explain and reduce uncertainties in ESM projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment

Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. Furthermore, this paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving cosmological analyses of HI clustering by reducing stochastic noise

High-number-density tracers of large-scale structure, such as the HI-rich galaxies measured by 21 cm intensity mapping, have low sampling noise, making them particularly promising as cosmological probes. At large scales, this sampling noise can be subdominant to other scale-independent contributions to the power spectrum; such contributions arise from nonlinear bias, and exceed the sampling noise if at least one of the associated bias coefficients is sufficiently large. This has important consequences for cosmological constraints obtained from such tracers, since it indicates that using the power spectrum does not lead to optimal constraints even in the linear regime. In this paper, we provide a conservative estimate of the possible improvement in constraining power of a 21 cm survey if one were to use an optimal analysis strategy (such as field-level analysis), where only the true sampling noise enters the error budget. We find that improvements in uncertainties on some cosmological parameters can be as large as 50%, depending on redshift, foreground cleaning efficiency, scales used in the analysis, and instrumental noise. One byproduct of our work is measurements of bias parameters and stochasticity for neutral hydrogen in the IllustrisTNG simulation over a wide range of redshifts; we provide simple fitting formulas for these measurements. Furthermore, our results motivate further exploration of new optimal analysis techniques and provide important insights into the constraining power of current and future 21 cm surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the Value Proposition of High-Efficiency, Multijunction Solar Modules for Residential Rooftop Installations

Utilizing detailed bottom-up models, we analyze the potential markets for high-efficiency photovoltaic modules in the United States. We first estimate the fraction of area-constrained residential rooftops that could benefit from increasing the availability of high-efficiency systems. We then model the impact of efficiency on installed system costs in these area-constrained scenarios. Finally, we explore the value proposition of high-efficiency, fixed-tilt micro-concentrator photovoltaic modules in a series of case studies of residential customers, modeling the levelized cost of energy, payback period, and annual bill savings. We find that efficiency can provide significant savings in installed system cost and improve value to the solar system owner. The improvement in value depends on location and the size of the rooftop, as well as the ability of a given technology to collect diffuse light and achieve low module costs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field observational constraints on the controllers in glyoxal (CHOCHO) reactive uptake to aerosol

Abstract. Glyoxal (CHOCHO), the simplest dicarbonyl in the troposphere, is a potential precursor for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) and brown carbon (BrC) affecting air quality and climate. The airborne measurement of CHOCHO concentrations during the KORUS-AQ (KORea–US Air Quality study) campaign in 2016 enables detailed quantification of loss mechanisms pertaining to SOA formation in the real atmosphere. The production of this molecule was mainly from oxidation of aromatics (59 %) initiated by hydroxyl radical (OH). CHOCHO loss to aerosol was found to be the most important removal path (69 %) and contributed to roughly ∼ 20 % (3.7 µg sm−3 ppmv−1 h−1, normalized with excess CO) of SOA growth in the first 6 h in Seoul Metropolitan Area. A reactive uptake coefficient (γ) of ∼ 0.008 best represents the loss of CHOCHO by surface uptake during the campaign. To our knowledge, we show the first field observation of aerosol surface-area-dependent (Asurf) CHOCHO uptake, which diverges from the simple surface uptake assumption as Asurf increases in ambient condition. Specifically, under the low (high) aerosol loading, the CHOCHO effective uptake rate coefficient, keff,uptake, linearly increases (levels off) with Asurf; thus, the irreversible surface uptake is a reasonable (unreasonable) approximation for simulating CHOCHO loss to aerosol. Dependence on photochemical impact and changes in the chemical and physical aerosol properties “free water”, as well as aerosol viscosity, are discussed as other possible factors influencing CHOCHO uptake rate. Our inferred Henry's law coefficient of CHOCHO, 7.0×108 M atm−1, is ∼ 2 orders of magnitude higher than those estimated from salting-in effects constrained by inorganic salts only consistent with laboratory findings that show similar high partitioning into water-soluble organics, which urges more understanding on CHOCHO solubility under real atmospheric conditions.

Kim, Dongwook (ORCID:0000000221723588)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Parameter estimation from spontaneous imbibition into volcanic tuff

Two-phase fluid flow properties underlie quantitative prediction of water and gas movement, but constraining these properties typically requires multiple time-consuming laboratory methods. The estimation of two-phase flow properties (van Genuchten parameters, porosity, and intrinsic permeability) is illustrated in cores of vitric nonwelded volcanic tuff using Bayesian parameter estimation that fits numerical models to observations from spontaneous imbibition experiments. The uniqueness and correlation of the estimated parameters is explored using different modeling assumptions and subsets of the observed data. The resulting estimation process is sensitive to both moisture retention and relative permeability functions, thereby offering a comprehensive method for constraining both functions. The data collected during this relatively simple laboratory experiment, used in conjunction with a numerical model and a global optimizer, result in a viable approach for augmenting more traditional capillary pressure data obtained from hanging water column, membrane plate extractor, or mercury intrusion methods. This method may be useful when imbibition rather than drainage parameters are sought, when larger samples (e.g., including heterogeneity or fractures) need to be tested that cannot be accommodated in more traditional methods, or when in educational laboratory settings.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Robust Resilient Signal Reconstruction under Adversarial Attacks

We consider the problem of signal reconstruction for a system under sparse signal corruption by a malicious agent. The reconstruction problem follows the standard error coding problem that has been studied extensively in the literature. We include a new challenge of robust estimation of the attack support. The problem is then cast as a constrained optimization problem merging promising techniques in the area of deep learning and estimation theory. A pruning algorithm is developed to reduce the "false positive" uncertainty of data-driven attack localization results, thereby improving the probability of correct signal reconstruction. Sufficient conditions for the correct reconstruction and the associated reconstruction error bounds are obtained for both exact and inexact attack support estimation. Moreover, a simulation of a water distribution system is presented to validate the proposed techniques.

Robust, Signal reconstruction, Resilient estimator↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of plasma properties using an extended Kalman filter with plasma global models

A physically-constrained extended Kalman filter (EKF) is applied to various zero-dimensional global models for the estimation of plasma properties using time-dependent experimental data such as the plasma density or ion flux. The capability of the EKF is demonstrated to estimate unknown system states simultaneously, such as reaction rate coefficients and the absorbed electron input power, which can be difficult, if not impossible, to measure experimentally. Global models accounting for pure argon reactions and argon-oxygen reactions are used in this work to demonstrate the ability of the filter to estimate dynamic and complex systems. Furthermore, the results obtained from the EKF plasma global model illustrate that model-data fusion techniques can be used to estimate plasma properties and processes for time-varying systems, such as pulsed discharges.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Conditional H I Mass Functions and the H I -to-halo Mass Relation in the Local Universe

We present a new H I mass estimator that relates log 10 (M HI /M * ) to a linear combination of four galaxy properties: stellar surface mass density, color index u - r, stellar mass, and concentration index, with the scatter of individual galaxies around the mean H I mass modeled with a Gaussian distribution function. We calibrate the estimator using the xGASS sample, including both H I detection and nondetection, and constrain the model parameters through Bayesian inferences. Tests with mock catalogs demonstrate that our estimator provides unbiased H I masses for optical samples like SDSS. We apply our estimator to the SDSS spectroscopic sample to estimate the H I mass function (HIMF) of local galaxies, as well as the conditional H I mass function in galaxy groups and the H I –halo mass relation. Our HIMF agrees with the ALFALFA measurements at M HI ≳ 5 × 10 9 M ⊙ , but with higher amplitude and a steeper slope at lower masses. We show that this discrepancy is caused primarily by the cosmic variance, which is corrected for the SDSS sample but not for ALFALFA. The total CHIMFs for all halo masses can be described by a single Schechter function, while those of central galaxies show a double-Gaussian profile. The total H I mass in a group increases monotonically with halo mass, but for central galaxies, the H I mass shows weak dependence on halo mass when M h ≳ 10 12 M ⊙ . The observed H I –halo mass relation is not reproduced by current hydrodynamic simulations and semianalytic models of galaxy formation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physical Controls on the Hydrology of Perennially Ice-Covered Lakes, Taylor Valley, Antarctica (1996–2013)

The McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, are a polar desert populated with numerous closed-watershed, perennially ice-covered lakes primarily fed by glacial melt. Lake levels have varied by as much as 8 m since 1972 and are currently rising after a decade of decreasing. Precipitation falls as snow, so lake hydrology is dominated by energy available to melt glacier ice and to sublimate lake ice. To understand the energy and hydrologic controls on lake level changes and to explain the variability between neighboring lakes, only a few kilometers apart, we model the hydrology for the three largest lakes in Taylor Valley. Here, we apply a physically based hydrological model that includes a surface energy balance model to estimate glacial melt and lake sublimation to constrain mass fluxes to and from the lakes. Results show that lake levels are very sensitive to small changes in glacier albedo, air temperature, and wind speed. We were able to balance the hydrologic budget in two watersheds using meltwater inflow and sublimation loss from the ice-covered lake alone. A third watershed, closest to the coast, required additional inflow beyond model uncertainties. We hypothesize a shallow groundwater system within the active layer, fed by dispersed snow patches, contributes 23% of the inflow to this watershed. The lakes are out of equilibrium with the current climate. If the climate of our study period (1996–2013) persists into the future, the lakes will reach equilibrium starting in 2300, with levels 2–17 m higher, depending on the lake, relative to the 2020 level.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Age of Evapotranspiration: Lower‐Bound Constraints From Distributed Water Fluxes Across the Continental United States

Abstract Unlike streamflow, which can be sampled in aggregate at the catchment outlet, evapotranspiration (ET) is spatially dispersed, challenging large‐scale age estimation. Here, we introduce an approach for constraining the age of ET via mass balance and present the minimum flux‐weighted age of ET across the continental United States using distributed, publicly available water flux data sets. The lower‐bound constraint on ET age can be calculated by assuming that ET is preferentially sourced from the most recent precipitation through a last‐in, first‐out algorithm. From 2012 to 2017, ET was at least several months old across large areas of the western continental United States, including in Mediterranean and (semi‐)arid climate zones and shrub and evergreen needleleaf plant communities. The primary limitation of this approach is that it provides only a minimum flux‐weighted average age to satisfy the mass balance of outgoing fluxes; true ET fluxes are composed of distributions of ages and may be composed of much older water. The primary advantage of the approach is that flux time series of precipitation and ET are sufficient to constrain ET age, and model parameterization is unnecessary. ET ages can be used to validate tracer‐aided and modeling approaches and inform studies of biogeochemistry, water‐rock interactions, and plant water sourcing under drought.

Hahm, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Simons Observatory: impact of bandpass, polarization angle and calibration uncertainties on small-scale power spectrum analysis

We study the effects due to mismatches in passbands, polarization angles, and temperature and polarization calibrations in the context of the upcoming cosmic microwave background experiment Simons Observatory (SO). Using the SO multi-frequency likelihood, we estimate the bias and the degradation of constraining power in cosmological and astrophysical foreground parameters assuming different levels of knowledge of the instrumental effects. We find that incorrect but reasonable assumptions about the values ofall the systematics examined here can have significant effects on cosmologicalanalyses, hence requiring marginalization approaches at the likelihood level.When doing so, we find that the most relevant effect is due to bandpass shifts. When marginalizing over them, the posteriors of parameters describing astrophysical microwave foregrounds (such as radio point sources or dust) get degraded, while cosmological parameters constraints are not significantly affected.Marginalization over polarization angles with up to 0.25$^{°}$ uncertainty causes an irrelevant bias ≲ 0.05 σ in all parameters.Marginalization over calibration factors in polarization broadens the constraints on the effective number of relativistic degrees of freedom N$_{eff}$ by a factor 1.2, interpreted here as a proxy parameter for non standard model physics targeted by high-resolution CMB measurements.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reinterpreting fundamental plane correlations with machine learning

ABSTRACT This work explores the relationships between galaxy sizes and related observable galaxy properties in a large volume cosmological hydrodynamical simulation. The objectives of this work are to develop a better understanding of both the correlations between galaxy properties and the influence of environment on galaxy physics in order to build an improved model for the galaxy sizes, building off of the fundamental plane. With an accurate intrinsic galaxy size predictor, the residuals in the observed galaxy sizes can potentially be used for multiple cosmological applications, including making measurements of galaxy velocities in spectroscopic samples, estimating the rate of cosmic expansion, and constraining the uncertainties in the photometric redshifts of galaxies. Using projection pursuit regression, the model accurately predicts intrinsic galaxy sizes and have residuals which have limited correlation with galaxy properties. The model decreases the spatial correlation of galaxy size residuals by a factor of ∼5 at small scales compared to the baseline correlation when the mean size is used as a predictor.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗