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NASA NTRS2004

Understanding the Global Structure and Evolution of Coronal Mass Ejections in the Solar Wind

This report summarizes the technical progress made during the first six months of the second year of the NASA Living with a Star program contract Understanding the global structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind, between NASA and Science Applications International Corporation, and covers the period November 18, 2003 - May 17,2004. Under this contract SAIC has conducted numerical and data analysis related to fundamental issues concerning the origin, intrinsic properties, global structure, and evolution of coronal mass ejections in the solar wind. During this working period we have focused on a quantitative assessment of 5 flux rope fitting techniques. In the following sections we summarize the main aspects of this work and our proposed investigation plan for the next reporting period. Thus far, our investigation has resulted in 6 refereed scientific publications and we have presented the results at a number of scientific meetings and workshops.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Peculiar Behavior of Halo Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 24

We report on the remarkable finding that the halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in cycle 24 are more abundant than in cycle 23, although the sunspot number in cycle 24 has dropped by approx. 40%. We also find that the distribution of halo-CME source locations is different in cycle 24: the longitude distribution of halos is much flatter with the number of halos originating at a central meridian distance greater than or equal to 60deg twice as large as that in cycle 23. On the other hand, the average speed and associated soft X-ray flare size are the same in both cycles, suggesting that the ambient medium into which the CMEs are ejected is significantly different. We suggest that both the higher abundance and larger central meridian longitudes of halo CMEs can be explained as a consequence of the diminished total pressure in the heliosphere in cycle 24. The reduced total pressure allows CMEs to expand more than usual making them appear as halos.

coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS1984

Coronal mass ejection recurrence studies indicating global activity and local suppression

The distribution of time intervals between successive coronal mass ejection events observed from the SMM and Skylab coronagraphs has been analyzed. Histograms of such recurrence times show that mass ejections tend to cluster in periods of activity. Evidence is found for simultaneous activity on a global scale. A second result is that, statistically, limb regions within + or - 59 deg position angle of a mass ejection show a marked absence of subsequent observable ejections for approximately 10 h. Flares of importance greater than or equal to 1 show no such deficit; however, large disparitons brusques tend similarly to be suppressed, for 24 h. This result, together with the closer association of mass ejection with eruptive prominences rather than with flares and the realization that eruptive prominences are rarely if ever seen without an accompanying mass ejection, obviates suggestions that magnetohydrodynamic conditions in the outflow following the earlier mass ejection hide subsequent coronal events.

Wagner, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

White-light coronal mass ejections: A new perspective from LASCO

More than 275 coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were recorded by the large angle spectroscopic coronagraph (LASCO) from January 1996 through August 1997. Some of the characteristics of 65 of these CMEs, occurring during a three month period (May to July 1997) were quantified. During this time the rate of CME detection was about 0.7 CMEs per day; the distribution of apparent latitudes was clustererd near the equator with an average latitude of 3 deg N; the average width of the CMEs was 49 deg; and the average speed was 324 km/s. The statistical measures and the distributions for these CMEs agree with the existing literature. One new result was the high fraction (plus or minus 35 deg) of CMEs with at least one concave-outward morphological feature, which was considered a possible signature of magnetic disconnection. A new small-scale phenomenon that appears to be the white light counterpart of the extreme ultraviolet microjets detected in the polar coronal holes is described.

St.Cyr, O. C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Coronal mass ejections and large geomagnetic storms

Previous work indicates that coronal mass ejection (CME) events in the solar wind at 1 AU can be identified by the presence of a flux of counterstreaming solar wind halo electrons (above about 80 eV). Using this technique to identify CMEs in 1 AU plasma data, it is found that most large geomagnetic storms during the interval surrounding the last solar maximum (August 1978 - October 1982) were associated with earth-passage of interplanetary disturbances in which the earth encountered both a shock and the CME driving the shock. However, only about one CME in six encountered by earth was effective in causing a large geomagnetic storm. Slow CMEs which did not interact strongly with the ambient solar wind ahead were particularly ineffective in a geomagnetic sense.

Gosling, J. T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Coronal Mass Ejections and their Implications for the Corona and Heliosphere

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the largest and most energetic form of transients that connect the Sun to the heliosphere. They are critically important both for understanding the physical mechanisms of explosive solar activity and for predicting space weather. Furthermore they are an extreme example of how cross-scale coupling can play a critical role in determining the properties of a large-scale dynamical system. In this presentation CME theories are reviewed and the latest results from 3D numerical modeling of CME initiation propagation to the heliosphere are presented. In particular the focus is on the breakout model, but many of the results hold for the flux rope models as well. The implications of these results for understanding heliospheric structure and dynamics and for upcoming space missions will be discussed.

Antiochos, Spiro K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Solar Eruptions: Coronal Mass Ejections and Flares

This lecture introduces the topic of Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar flares, collectively known as solar eruptions. During solar eruptions, the released energy flows out from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. Flares can be eruptive or confined. Eruptive flares accompany CMEs, while confined flares hav~ only electromagnetic signature. CMEs can drive MHD shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. CMEs heading in the direction of Earth arrive in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced curr~nts that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2012

Coronal Mass Ejections Near the Sun and in the Interplanetary Medium

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere. During solar eruptions, the released energy flows out from the Sun in the form of magnetized plasma and electromagnetic radiation. The electromagnetic radiation suddenly increases the ionization content of the ionosphere, thus impacting communication and navigation systems. The plasma clouds can drive shocks that accelerate charged particles to very high energies in the interplanetary space, which pose radiation hazard to astronauts and space systems. The plasma clouds also arrive at Earth in about two days and impact Earth's magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic storms. The magnetic storms result in a number of effects including induced currents that can disrupt power grids, railroads, and underground pipelines. This lecture presents an overview of the origin, propagation, and geospace consequences of CMEs and their interplanetary counterparts.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2016

History and Development of Coronal Mass Ejections as a Key Player in Solar Terrestrial Relationship

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are relatively a recently discovered phenomenon in 1971, some 15 years into the Space Era. It took another two decades to realize that CMEs are the most important players in solar terrestrial relationship as the root cause of severe weather in Earths space environment. CMEs are now counted among the major natural hazards because they cause large solar energetic particle (SEP) events and major geomagnetic storms, both of which pose danger to humans and their technology in space and ground. Geomagnetic storms discovered in the 1700s, solar flares discovered in the 1800s, and SEP events discovered in the 1900s are all now found to be closely related to CMEs via various physical processes occurring at various locations in and around CMEs, when they interact with the ambient medium. This article identifies a number of key developments that preceded the discovery of white-light CMEs suggesting that CMEs were waiting to be discovered. The last two decades witnessed an explosion of CME research following the launch of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory mission in 1995, resulting in the establishment of a full picture of CMEs.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2024

The Role of Magnetic Reconnection in the Structure and Dynamics of Fast Coronal Mass Ejections

Both observations and models of flare-associated coronal mass ejections (CMEs) suggest that magnetic reconnection in an ejection's wake substantially increases the net, outward Lorentz force acceler­ating the CME. A stronger outward force can cause a feedback loop, driving further magnetic reconnection in a "reconnective instability." The flux accretion model captures this by relating reconnected flux, ∆ rec , and magnetic field strength, B CME , to increased outward Lorentz force, ∆F r . To better understand recon­nection's role in CME dynamics, we analyze two snapshots from a 2.5D, MHD simulation of a breakout eruption. Outward Lorentz forces increase substantially as reconnection proceeds, caused primarily by "flank currents," which flow just inside the boundary of the rising ejection's wake and parallel to its axis. This model's reconnection jet also alters the ejection's internal structure, an effect that could be sought in observations. Analyzing reconnection-induced Lorentz forces in 3D simulations could provide additional insights into CME dynamics.

Magnetic Reconnection↗
NASA NTRS2014

Two-Step Forecast of Geomagnetic Storm Using Coronal Mass Ejection and Solar Wind Condition

To forecast geomagnetic storms, we had examined initially observed parameters of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and introduced an empirical storm forecast model in a previous study. Now we suggest a two-step forecast considering not only CME parameters observed in the solar vicinity but also solar wind conditions near Earth to improve the forecast capability. We consider the empirical solar wind criteria derived in this study (Bz ≤ −5 nT or Ey ≥ 3 mV/m for t ≥ 2 h for moderate storms with minimum Dst less than −50 nT) (i.e. Magnetic Field Magnitude, B (sub z) less than or equal to -5 nanoTeslas or duskward Electrical Field, E (sub y) greater than or equal to 3 millivolts per meter for time greater than or equal to 2 hours for moderate storms with Minimum Disturbance Storm Time, Dst less than -50 nanoTeslas) and a Dst model developed by Temerin and Li (2002, 2006) (TL [i.e. Temerin Li] model). Using 55 CME-Dst pairs during 1997 to 2003, our solar wind criteria produce slightly better forecasts for 31 storm events (90 percent) than the forecasts based on the TL model (87 percent). However, the latter produces better forecasts for 24 nonstorm events (88 percent), while the former correctly forecasts only 71 percent of them. We then performed the two-step forecast. The results are as follows: (i) for 15 events that are incorrectly forecasted using CME parameters, 12 cases (80 percent) can be properly predicted based on solar wind conditions; (ii) if we forecast a storm when both CME and solar wind conditions are satisfied (∩, i.e. cap operator - the intersection set that is comprised of all the elements that are common to both), the critical success index becomes higher than that from the forecast using CME parameters alone, however, only 25 storm events (81 percent) are correctly forecasted; and (iii) if we forecast a storm when either set of these conditions is satisfied (∪, i.e. cup operator - the union set that is comprised of all the elements of either or both), all geomagnetic storms are correctly forecasted.

geomagnetic storm forecast↗
NASA NTRS1995

Coronal mass ejections and the evolution of the large-scale corona

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are dynamic, large-scale events in the solar corona that expel plasma and magnetic fields into the solar wind. The structure of the large-scale corona influences CME occurrence; for example, CMEs are most frequently observed to be disruptions of coronal or helmet streamer configurations on the Sun. We have investigated the evolution of the large-scale corona in the presence of differential rotation, using time-dependent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations in two and three dimensions. An equilibrium coronal configuration is first computed by superimposing a Parker solar wind flow on an initial potential field, the equations are integrated in time until a steady-state is reached. When differential rotation is introduced, we find that the configuration does not reach a steady state; the closed field regions (helmet streamers) disrupt recurrently, ejecting plasmoids into the solar wind. Our results suggest that differential rotation may be one of the mechanisms by which mass ejections are initiated. We will describe the evolution of the polarization brightness (pB) for the resulting configurations, as well as the propagation of the ejected plasmoids in the solar wind, and we will compare the effects of differential rotation with other possible initiation mechanisms, such as the emergence of new magnetic flux.

Linker, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

Barghouty, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Characteristics of flares producing metric type II bursts and coronal mass ejections

An attempt is made to study the origin of coronal shocks by comparing several flare characteristics for two groups of flares: those with associated metric type II bursts and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and those with associated metric type II bursts but no CMEs. CMEs accompany about 60 percent of all flares with type II bursts for solar longitudes greater than 30 deg, where CMEs are well observed with the NRL Solwind coronagraph. H-alpha flare areas, 1-8 A X-ray fluxes, and impulsive 3-cm fluxes are all statistically smaller for events with no CMEs than for events with CMEs. It appears that both compact and large mass ejection flares are associated with type II bursts. The events with no CMEs imply that at least many type II shocks are not piston-driven, but the large number of events of both groups with small 3 cm bursts does not support the usual assumption that type II shocks are produced by large energy releases in flare impulsive phases. The poor correlation between 3 cm burst fluxes and the occurrence of type II bursts may be due to large variations in the coronal Alfven velocity.

Kahler, S.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.

coronal mass↗
NASA NTRS2012

Characteristics of Kinematics of a Coronal Mass Ejection During the 2010 August 1 CME-CME Interaction Event

We study the interaction of two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the 2010 August 1 events using STEREO/SECCHI COR and HI data. We obtain the direction of motion for both CMEs by applying several independent reconstruction methods and find that the CMEs head in similar directions. This provides evidence that a full interaction takes place between the two CMEs that can be observed in the HI1 field-of-view. The full de-projected kinematics of the faster CME from Sun to Earth is derived by combining remote observations with in situ measurements of the CME at 1 AU. The speed profile of the faster CME (CME2; (is) approximately 1200 km s−1) shows a strong deceleration over the distance range at which it reaches the slower, preceding CME (CME1; (is) approximately 700 km s−1). By applying a drag-based model we are able to reproduce the kinematical profile of CME2 suggesting that CME1 represents a magnetohydrodynamic obstacle for CME2 and that, after the interaction, the merged entity propagates as a single structure in an ambient flow of speed and density typical for quiet solar wind conditions. Observational facts show that magnetic forces may contribute to the enhanced deceleration of CME2. We speculate that the increase in magnetic tension and pressure, when CME2 bends and compresses the magnetic field lines of CME1, increases the efficiency of drag.

HI data↗
NASA NTRS2008

Using Global Simulations to Relate the Three-Part Structure of Coronal Mass Ejections to in Situ Signatures

White-light observations of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) often show the classic "three-part" structure consisting of (1) a bright front; (2) a dark cavity; and (3) a bright, compact core. It has proven difficult to unambiguously associate these features with in situ measurements of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs), in all but a few cases. In this study we use a global MHD model to simulate the eruption and evolution of a CME out to 0.25 AU, allowing us to continuously track these features from the Sun and through the solar wind. Our results support the generally held view that the interplanetary flux rope corresponds to the dark cavity. We find that the bright front merges with solar wind material swept up by the ICME. Thus, the sheath material found ahead of fast ejecta is in fact composed from both ambient solar wind material, as well the bright front. We also note that, in this simulation, the bright front is formed from the overlying streamer configuration from within which the CME erupted and is not itself coronal material swept up during the early phase of the eruption. The conclusions reached in this study are undoubtedly sensitive to the initial configuration and mechanism used to initiate the CME, and thus care should be taken when using them to interpret specific observations. On the other hand, they provide a unique, unbroken connection between remote solar and interplanetary observations. Ultimately, detailed comparisons between observations and simulation results may be able to constrain or even rule out some mechanisms of CME initiation.

Riley, Pete↗