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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Real Time Volcanic Cloud Products and Predictions for Aviation Alerts

Volcanic eruptions can inject significant amounts of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and volcanic ash into the atmosphere, posing a substantial risk to aviation safety. Ingesting near-real time and Direct Readout satellite volcanic cloud data is vital for improving reliability of volcanic ash forecasts and mitigating the effects of volcanic eruptions on aviation and the economy. NASA volcanic products from the Ozone Monitoring Insrument (OMI) aboard the Aura satellite have been incorporated into Decision Support Systems of many operational agencies. With the Aura mission approaching its 10th anniversary, there is an urgent need to replace OMI data with those from the next generation operational NASA/NOAA Suomi National Polar Partnership (SNPP) satellite. The data provided from these instruments are being incorporated into forecasting models to provide quantitative ash forecasts for air traffic management. This study demonstrates the feasibility of the volcanic near-real time and Direct Readout data products from the new Ozone Monitoring and Profiling Suite (OMPS) ultraviolet sensor onboard SNPP for monitoring and forecasting volcanic clouds. The transition of NASA data production to our operational partners is outlined. Satellite observations are used to constrain volcanic cloud simulations and improve estimates of eruption parameters, resulting in more accurate forecasts. This is demonstrated for the 2012 eruption of Copahue. Volcanic eruptions are modeled using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol and Radiation Transport (GOCART) model. A hindcast of the disruptive eruption from Iceland's Eyjafjallajokull is used to estimate aviation re-routing costs using Metron Aviation's ATM Tools.

Volcanic ash↗

Program and Project Management Framework

The primary objective of this project was to develop a framework and system architecture for integrating program and project management tools that may be applied consistently throughout Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to optimize planning, cost estimating, risk management, and project control. Project management methodology used in building interactive systems to accommodate the needs of the project managers is applied as a key component in assessing the usefulness and applicability of the framework and tools developed. Research for the project included investigation and analysis of industrial practices, KSC standards, policies, and techniques, Systems Management Office (SMO) personnel, and other documented experiences of project management experts. In addition, this project documents best practices derived from the literature as well as new or developing project management models, practices, and techniques.

Butler, Cassandra D.↗

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

Bao, Han P.↗

System-of-Systems Technology-Portfolio-Analysis Tool

Advanced Technology Life-cycle Analysis System (ATLAS) is a system-of-systems technology-portfolio-analysis software tool. ATLAS affords capabilities to (1) compare estimates of the mass and cost of an engineering system based on competing technological concepts; (2) estimate life-cycle costs of an outer-space-exploration architecture for a specified technology portfolio; (3) collect data on state-of-the-art and forecasted technology performance, and on operations and programs; and (4) calculate an index of the relative programmatic value of a technology portfolio. ATLAS facilitates analysis by providing a library of analytical spreadsheet models for a variety of systems. A single analyst can assemble a representation of a system of systems from the models and build a technology portfolio. Each system model estimates mass, and life-cycle costs are estimated by a common set of cost models. Other components of ATLAS include graphical-user-interface (GUI) software, algorithms for calculating the aforementioned index, a technology database, a report generator, and a form generator for creating the GUI for the system models. At the time of this reporting, ATLAS is a prototype, embodied in Microsoft Excel and several thousand lines of Visual Basic for Applications that run on both Windows and Macintosh computers.

O'Neil, Daniel↗

Operations and Modeling Analysis

The Reliability and Maintainability Analysis Tool (RMAT) provides NASA the capability to estimate reliability and maintainability (R&M) parameters and operational support requirements for proposed space vehicles based upon relationships established from both aircraft and Shuttle R&M data. RMAT has matured both in its underlying database and in its level of sophistication in extrapolating this historical data to satisfy proposed mission requirements, maintenance concepts and policies, and type of vehicle (i.e. ranging from aircraft like to shuttle like). However, a companion analyses tool, the Logistics Cost Model (LCM) has not reached the same level of maturity as RMAT due, in large part, to nonexistent or outdated cost estimating relationships and underlying cost databases, and it's almost exclusive dependence on Shuttle operations and logistics cost input parameters. As a result, the full capability of the RMAT/LCM suite of analysis tools to take a conceptual vehicle and derive its operations and support requirements along with the resulting operating and support costs has not been realized.

Ebeling, Charles↗

Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

computational intelligence↗

On a Formal Tool for Reasoning About Flight Software Cost Analysis

A report focuses on the development of flight software (FSW) cost estimates for 16 Discovery-class missions at JPL. The techniques and procedures developed enabled streamlining of the FSW analysis process, and provided instantaneous confirmation that the data and processes used for these estimates were consistent across all missions. The research provides direction as to how to build a prototype rule-based system for FSW cost estimation that would provide (1) FSW cost estimates, (2) explanation of how the estimates were arrived at, (3) mapping of costs, (4) mathematical trend charts with explanations of why the trends are what they are, (5) tables with ancillary FSW data of interest to analysts, (6) a facility for expert modification/enhancement of the rules, and (7) a basis for conceptually convenient expansion into more complex, useful, and general rule-based systems.

Spagnuolo, John N., Jr.↗

Space Station needs, attributes and architectural options, volume 2, book 3: Cost and programmatics

The cost and programmatic considerations which integrate mission requirements and architectural options into a cohesive system for exploitation of space opportunities within affordable limits are discussed. The mission requirements, baseline architecture, a top level baseline schedule, and acquisition costs are summarized. The work breakdown structure (WBS) used to structure the program, and the WBS dictionary are included. The costing approach used, including the operation of the primary costing tool, the SPACE cost model are described. The rationale for the choice of cost estimating relationships is given and costs at the module level are shown. Detailed costs at the subsystem level are shown. The baseline schedule and annual funding profiles are provided. Alternate schedules are developed to provide different funding profiles. Alternate funding sources are discussed and foreign and contractor participation is outlined. The results of the benefit analysis are given and the accrued benefits deriving from an implemented space station program are outlined.

Source record↗

Software management tools: Lessons learned from use

Experience in inserting software project planning tools into more than 100 projects producing mission critical software are discussed. The problems the software project manager faces are listed along with methods and tools available to handle them. Experience is reported with the Project Manager's Workstation (PMW) and the SoftCost-R cost estimating package. Finally, the results of a survey, which looked at what could be done in the future to overcome the problems experienced and build a set of truly useful tools, are presented.

Reifer, D. J.↗

Managing Information On Costs

Cost Management Model, CMM, software tool for planning, tracking, and reporting costs and information related to costs. Capable of estimating costs, comparing estimated to actual costs, performing "what-if" analyses on estimates of costs, and providing mechanism to maintain data on costs in format oriented to management. Number of supportive cost methods built in: escalation rates, production-learning curves, activity/event schedules, unit production schedules, set of spread distributions, tables of rates and factors defined by user, and full arithmetic capability. Import/export capability possible with 20/20 Spreadsheet available on Data General equipment. Program requires AOS/VS operating system available on Data General MV series computers. Written mainly in FORTRAN 77 but uses SGU (Screen Generation Utility).

Taulbee, Zoe A.↗

Designing for Cost

Designing for cost is a state of mind. Of course, a lot of technical knowledge is required and the use of appropriate tools will improve the process. Unfortunately, the extensive use of weight based cost estimating relationships has generated a perception in the aerospace community that the primary way to reduce cost is to reduce weight. Wrong! Based upon an approximation of an industry accepted formula, the PRICE H (tm) production-production equation, Dean demonstrated theoretically that the optimal trajectory for cost reduction is predominantly in the direction of system complexity reduction, not system weight reduction. Thus the phrase "keep it simple" is a primary state of mind required for reducing cost throughout the design process.

Dean, Edwin B.↗

Application of GRACE to the Estimation of Groundwater Storage Change in a Data-poor Region: A Case Study of Ngadda Catchment in the Lake Chad Basin

The present study is to explore the feasibility of GRACE-based estimation of a groundwater storage change in a data-poor region using a case study of the Ngadda catchment in the Lake Chad Basin. Although the Ngadda catchment has only one set of in situ time series data of groundwater from 2006 to 2009 and a limited number of groundwater measurements in 2005 and 2009, GRACE-based groundwater storage change can be evaluated against thein situ groundwater measurements combined with specific yield data. The cross-correlation analysis in the Ngadda catchment shows that maximum rainfall reached in July and August, whereas both the maximum total water storage anomaly and the maximum groundwater storage anomaly occurred 2months later. Whereas the mean annual amplitude of total water storage anomaly is about 17cm from both the average total water storage anomaly from three mascon products and the one from three spherical harmonic products, the mean annual amplitude of soil moisture storage anomaly is substantially varied from5.58cm for CLM to about 14cm for NOAH and Mosaic. The goodness-of-fit tests show that CLM soil moisture produces the closest estimation of groundwater storage anomaly to thein situ groundwater measurements. The present study shows that GRACE-based estimation for groundwater storage anomaly can be a cost-effective and alternative tool to observe how groundwater changes in a basin scale under the limitation of modelling and in situ data availability.

GRACE↗

Lessons learned in deploying software estimation technology and tools

Developing a software product involves estimating various project parameters. This is typically done in the planning stages of the project when there is much uncertainty and very little information. Coming up with accurate estimates of effort, cost, schedule, and reliability is a critical problem faced by all software project managers. The use of estimation models and commercially available tools in conjunction with the best bottom-up estimates of software-development experts enhances the ability of a product development group to derive reasonable estimates of important project parameters. This paper describes the experience of the IBM Software Solutions (SWS) Toronto Laboratory in selecting software estimation models and tools and deploying their use to the laboratory's product development groups. It introduces the SLIM and COSTAR products, the software estimation tools selected for deployment to the product areas, and discusses the rationale for their selection. The paper also describes the mechanisms used for technology injection and tool deployment, and concludes with a discussion of important lessons learned in the technology and tool insertion process.

Panlilio-Yap, Nikki↗

Information quality-control model

Model serves as graphic tool for estimating complete product objectives from limited input information, and is applied to cost estimations, product-quality evaluations, and effectiveness measurements for manpower resources allocation. Six product quality levels are defined.

Vincent, D. A.↗

Energy-Systems Economic Analysis

Energy Systems Economic Analysis (ESEA) program is flexible analytical tool for rank ordering of alternative energy systems. Basic ESEA approach derives an estimate of those costs incurred as result of purchasing, installing and operating an energy system. These costs, suitably aggregated into yearly costs over lifetime of system, are divided by expected yearly energy output to determine busbar energy costs. ESEA, developed in 1979, is written in FORTRAN IV for batch execution.

Doane, J.↗

Space Station Facility government estimating

This new, unique Cost Engineering Report introduces the 800-page, C-100 government estimate for the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) and Volume IV Aerospace Construction Price Book. At the January 23, 1991, bid opening for the SSPF, the government cost estimate was right on target. Metric, Inc., Prime Contractor, low bid was 1.2 percent below the government estimate. This project contains many different and complex systems. Volume IV is a summary of the cost associated with construction, activation and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) design, estimating, fabrication, installation, testing, termination, and verification of this project. Included are 13 reasons the government estimate was so accurate; abstract of bids, for 8 bidders and government estimate with additive alternates, special labor and materials, budget comparison and system summaries; and comments on the energy credit from local electrical utility. This report adds another project to our continuing study of 'How Does the Low Bidder Get Low and Make Money?' which was started in 1967, and first published in the 1973 AACE Transaction with 18 ways the low bidders get low. The accuracy of this estimate proves the benefits of our Kennedy Space Center (KSC) teamwork efforts and KSC Cost Engineer Tools which are contributing toward our goals of the Space Station.

Brown, Joseph A.↗

Estimating and bidding for the Space Station Processing Facility

This new, unique Cost Engineering Report introduces the 800-page, C-100 government estimate for the Space Station Processing Facility (SSPF) and Volume IV Aerospace Construction Price Book. At the January 23, 1991, bid opening for the SSPF, the government cost estimate was right on target. Metric, Inc., Prime Contractor, low bid was 1.2 percent below the government estimate. This project contains many different and complex systems. Volume IV is a summary of the cost associated with construction, activation and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) design, estimating, fabrication, installation, testing, termination, and verification of this project. Included are 13 reasons the government estimate was so accurate; abstract of bids, for 8 bidders and government estimate with additive alternates, special labor and materials, budget comparison and system summaries; and comments on the energy credit from local electrical utility. This report adds another project to our continuing study of 'How Does the Low Bidder Get Low and Make Money?' which was started in 1967, and first published in the 1973 AACE Transaction with 10 more ways the low bidder got low. The accuracy of this estimate proves the benefits of our Kennedy Space Center (KSC) teamwork efforts and KSC Cost Engineer Tools which are contributing toward our goals of the Space Station.

Brown, Joseph A.↗

PACE 2: Pricing and Cost Estimating Handbook

An automatic data processing system to be used for the preparation of industrial engineering type manhour and material cost estimates has been established. This computer system has evolved into a highly versatile and highly flexible tool which significantly reduces computation time, eliminates computational errors, and reduces typing and reproduction time for estimators and pricers since all mathematical and clerical functions are automatic once basic inputs are derived.

Stewart, R. D.↗