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An economic analysis of space tug operations is presented. The subjects discussed are: (1) cost uncertainties, (2) scenario analysis, (3) economic sensitivities, (4) mixed integer programming formulation of the space tug problem, and (5) critical parameters in the evaluation of a public expenditure.
A site evaluation was performed to assess the relative merits of different regions of the country in terms of the suitability for experimental photovoltaic powered residences. Eight sites were selected based on evaluation criteria which included population, photovoltaic systems performance and the cost of electrical energy. A parametric sensitivity analysis was performed for four selected site locations. Analytical models were developed for four different power system implementation approaches. Using the model which represents a direct (or float) charge system implementation the performance sensitivity to the following parameter variations is reported: (1) solar roof slope angle; (2) ratio of the number of series cells in the solar array to the number of series cells in the lead-acid battery; and (3) battery size. For a Cleveland site location, a system with no on site energy storage and with a maximum power tracking inverter which feeds back excess power to the utility was shown to have 19 percent greater net system output than the second place system. The experiment test plan is described. The load control and data acquisition system and the data display panel for the residence are discussed.
Bipolar membrane electrodialysis enables the in-situ production of high value products (e.g., acid and base) from clean brine, which is essential for a sustainable future. A technoeconomic assessment (TEA) was conducted on extraction of value from brine using the WaterTAP framework to identify optimal cost across a wide design space. Here, in the power constrained regime, increasing supplied salt concentration does not necessarily result in reduced cost or increased NaOH concentration. A detailed analysis elucidates the critical roles of water dissociation, limiting currents, and sodium diffusion play in shaping the landscape of levelized cost. Among these, water splitting predominantly influences the TEA outcomes across most of the optimal design space. Sensitivity analysis further demonstrates that membrane properties controlling water dissociation significantly impact the unit cost. The results indicate that innovations targeting improvements in water disassociation should be prioritised to effectively reduce the levelized cost of product production.
The objective of this work was to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification for afterbody radiative heating predictions of Stardust capsule during Earth entry at peak afterbody radiation conditions. The radiation environment in the afterbody region poses significant challenges for accurate uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis due to the complexity of the flow physics, computational cost, and large number of un-certain variables. In this study, first a sparse collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos approach along with global non-linear sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most significant uncertain variables and reduce the dimensions of the stochastic problem. Then, a total order stochastic expansion was constructed over only the important parameters for an efficient and accurate estimate of the uncertainty in radiation. Based on previous work, 388 uncertain parameters were considered in the radiation model, which came from the thermodynamics, flow field chemistry, and radiation modeling. The sensitivity analysis showed that only four of these variables contributed significantly to afterbody radiation uncertainty, accounting for almost 95% of the uncertainty. These included the electronic- impact excitation rate for N between level 2 and level 5 and rates of three chemical reactions in uencing N, N(+), O, and O(+) number densities in the flow field.
In this project, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) and sensitivity studies were conducted to assess the PNNL’s leading water-lean CO 2 capture solvent, EEMPA, for capture CO 2 from a natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plant at different levels of capture rate. Process models for the NGCC power plant, integrated with EEMPA carbon capture processes, were developed in Aspen Plus V14 using the most up-to-date property package for EEMPA-H 2 O-CO 2 system. The TEA evaluated EEMPA carbon capture process at normal capture rates (90%, 95% and 97%) against Case B32B (Cansolv) described in NETL Rev4a baseline report, and at higher capture rates aimed at achieving zero or negative emissions from the power plant (400 ppmv, 200 ppmv, and 100 ppmv CO 2 in exhaust gas), compared to typical Direct Air Capture (DAC) technologies. A manuscript was drafted for peer-reviewed publication. The results suggested that the carbon capture cost reaches a minimum of $\$$53.7/tonne CO 2 at 90% capture rate. Compared to Cansolv, one of the industrial benchmarks, EEMPA demonstrates 2-4% cost savings at capture rates up to 95%, but minimal savings at higher capture rate. The water lean-solvent system proves economically attractive for achieving moderate negative emissions (about 200 ppmv CO 2 in exhaust gas, and equivalent to 50% CO 2 removal from air) for NGCC flue gas, with marginal capture costs comparable to direct air capture (DAC) technologies. A sensitivity analysis results reveal that its economic advantage, unaffected by EEMPA price due to low solvent loss and degradation rate. However, the marginal carbon capture cost exceeds $\$$1,000/tonne CO 2 when transitioning from moderate to extreme negative emissions (100 ppmv CO 2 in exhaust gas), suggesting that water-lean solvents may not be economically competitive with other DAC technologies for removing more than 75% CO 2 from air. In addition, initial connection was established with Technology Center Mongstad (TCM) for a potential pilot testing proposal. However, detailed modeling and proposal preparation was not conducted due to the delay of non-disclosure agreement.
FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.
Herein, the economics of producing biofuels from an industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa) genotype e 19m96136 was investigated. A lignocellulosic biofuel plant, hourly consuming 85 metric tons of hemp biomass was modeled in SuperPro Designer®. The integrated bioenergy plant produced hemp biodiesel and bioethanol from lipids and carbohydrates, respectively. The structural composition of the industrial hemp plant was analyzed in a previous study. The data obtained was used to simulate feedstock composition in SuperPro Designer®. The simulation results indicated that Hemp containing 2% lipids can yield up to 3.95 million gallons of biodiesel annually. On improving biomass lipid content to 5 and 10%, biodiesel production increased to 9.88 and 19.91 million gallons, respectively. The breakeven unit production cost of hemp biodiesel with 2, 5, and 10% lipid containing hemp was $18.49, $7.87, and $4.13/gallon, respectively. The biodiesel unit production cost when utilizing 10% lipid-containing hemp was comparable to soybean biodiesel at $4.13/ gallon. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed the possibility of a 7.80% reduction in unit production cost upon a 10% reduction in hemp feedstock cost. Furthermore, industrial hemp was capable of pro- ducing between 307.80 and 325.82 gallons of total biofuels per hectare of agricultural land than soybean.
In this study, the economics of producing biofuels from an industrial hemp (Cannabis sativa) genotype – 19m96136 was investigated. A lignocellulosic biofuel plant, hourly consuming 85 metric tons of hemp biomass was modeled in SuperPro Designer®. The integrated bioenergy plant produced hemp biodiesel and bioethanol from lipids and carbohydrates, respectively. The structural composition of the industrial hemp plant was analyzed in a previous study. The data obtained was used to simulate feedstock composition in SuperPro Designer®. The simulation results indicated that Hemp containing 2% lipids can yield up to 3.95 million gallons of biodiesel annually. On improving biomass lipid content to 5 and 10%, biodiesel production increased to 9.88 and 19.91 million gallons, respectively. The breakeven unit production cost of hemp biodiesel with 2, 5, and 10% lipid containing hemp was $18.49, $7.87, and $4.13/gallon, respectively. The biodiesel unit production cost when utilizing 10% lipid-containing hemp was comparable to soybean biodiesel at $4.13/gallon. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis revealed the possibility of a 7.80% reduction in unit production cost upon a 10% reduction in hemp feedstock cost. Furthermore, industrial hemp was capable of producing between 307.80 and 325.82 gallons of total biofuels per hectare of agricultural land than soybean.
Cost/benefit analyses to evaluate advanced material technologies projects considered for general aviation and turboprop commuter aircraft through estimated life-cycle costs, direct operating costs, and development costs are discussed. Specifically addressed is the selection of technologies to be evaluated; development of property goals; assessment of candidate technologies on typical engines and aircraft; sensitivity analysis of the changes in property goals on performance and economics, cost, and risk analysis for each technology; and ranking of each technology by relative value. The cost/benefit analysis was applied to a domestic, nonrevenue producing, business-type jet aircraft configured with two TFE731-3 turbofan engines, and to a domestic, nonrevenue producing, business type turboprop aircraft configured with two TPE331-10 turboprop engines. In addition, a cost/benefit analysis was applied to a commercial turboprop aircraft configured with a growth version of the TPE331-10.
NOvA is a long-baseline accelerator neutrino oscillation experiment using the NuMIneutrino beam from Fermilab. Its main physics goals are to probe the 3-flavour oscillationparameters: neutrino mass hierarchy, CP-violating phase dcp and octant of .23 mixingangle by observing electron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. Twofunctionally identical detectors are placed off-axis from the centre of the NuMI beam.The near detector at Fermilab is 100 m underground, and the far detector is locatedon the surface at Ash River, 810 km away from the beam source. The initial neutrinobeam spectra are measured using the near detector data and the oscillation parametersare extracted by fitting the observed data to the predicted neutrino spectrum in the fardetector.This thesis is centered around how to improve the sensitivity of |.m232| and .23 measurementsin the muon neutrino disappearance analysis. NOvA will take data for about12 years. The operation of the NOvA experiment for each year costs tens of millions ofdollars, thus it is valuable to maximise the sensitivity of the analysis. Three samples ofmuon neutrino events are studied in this thesis to improve the analysis sensitivities. First,higher energy muon neutrinos are investigated by extending the energy range in NOvA’scurrent standard analysis. Second, for the sample of events used in NOvA’s existing analysis,a new energy estimator which has been developed to improve the neutrino energy resolution is considered. Furthermore, in addition to binning the events as function ofenergy and hadronic energy fraction, three particle identifiers are introduced to separateneutrino events by signal purity to reduce the effects from backgrounds. Third, an additionallower purity sample of muon neutrino charged current (CC) events that look similarto neutral current events and have not been included in NOvA’s existing analyses havebeen studied.This thesis reanalyses NOvA’s data used in the 2020 analysis, corresponding to anexposure of 13.60×1020 protons on target (POT) in the neutrino beam mode recordedfrom February 6, 2014 to March 20, 2020, and 12.50×1020 protons on target in theantineutrino beam mode recorded between June 29, 2016 to February 26, 2019. Thisthesis has implemented a fit to Asimov fake data, generated where sin2 .23 = 0.59 and.m232 = 2.5 × 10-3 eV2. These sensitivity studies show that the uncertainty range of|.m232| at 1 s in the new analysis is reduced by 5.5% and the significance of maximaldisappearance rejection improves by 7.7%, compared to the standard analysis. This isequivalent to adding 11-16% more data. The best fit values of the oscillation parametersfrom fitting to the far detector (FD) data with the new analysis are found to besin2 .23 = 0.568+0.025-0.043 (sin2 .23 = 0.454+0.046-0.026) and .m232 = 2.399+0.055-0.070 × 10-3 eV2 (.m232= -2.427+0.055-0.067 × 10-3 eV2) for the normal (inverted) hierarchy. The difference in thebest fit for sin2 .23 (.m232) between the new analysis and NOvA’s 2020 analysis is around2% (1.4%). The uncertainty range at 1 s for .m232 decrease by 8% (4%) for the normalhierarchy (inverted hierarchy) compared to the standard analysis. The uncertainty rangefor sin2 .23 is close to the standard analysis. This thesis also implements the fit from combiningelectron neutrino appearance and muon neutrino disappearance. The combinedanalysis shows that the best fit values are very close to the standard analysis. However,the uncertainty range of .m232 at 1 s is reduced by 3.7% using the new analysis. The maximaldisappearance significance is not improved in the new analysis, but the new analysisslightly improves the rejection of the disfavoured octant.
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) promotes the production of advanced liquid transportation fuels from lignocellulosic biomass by funding fundamental and applied research that advances the state of technology (SOT). As part of its involvement with this mission, Idaho National Laboratory (INL) completes an annual SOT report for biomass feedstock logistics. This report summarizes supply system impacts of Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO)-funded research and development efforts at INL and elsewhere (such as the High-Tonnage Feedstock Logistics projects (Webb et al. 2013a, Webb et al. 2013b, Webb et al. 2013c, Webb and Sokhansanj 2014, Sokhansanj et al. 2014) that lead to improvements in feedstock supply systems. These include improvements to and observed performance of innovative harvest and collection methods, storage technologies, transportation and handling approaches, and advanced preprocessing technologies. Biomass quality and variability, and the interface between feedstock quality and conversion performance are key drivers in addition to delivered feedstock cost. In this report, we estimate the benefits of R&D improvements to individual supply system unit operations, and present the status of feedstock logistics technology development for converting biomass into biofuels. These analyses are supported by experimental data where possible, and help to align the SOT relative to the cost goals defined in the Multi-Year Program Plan. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT aligned feedstock logistic design with current biorefinery’s design capacity utilized by biochemical conversion platform. Currently biochemical conversion platform utilizes a 725,000 dry ton/year biorefiney design for the techno economic analysis. Hence, feedstock delivered cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT is calculated based on biorefinery’s 725,000 dry ton design capacity instead of 800, 000 dry ton capacity utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. Biomass availabilities in this SOT were updated to year 2018 data from the 2016 Billion-Ton Report (BT16) (DOE 2016a), with the exception of switchgrass, for which the 2018 Herbaceous SOT utilized the 2019 switchgrass availability data from BT16. The BT16 report (DOE 2016a) does not project switchgrass availability in 2018; the soonest switchgrass is available in the BT16 report is 2019. Therefore, availability of switchgrass for this analysis was that projected for 2019. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT incorporates same technologies utilized in the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. However, a sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the impact of variation of process parameters on those technologies on feedstock logistic cost. New R&D data that shows the variations of process parameters affecting process performance is incorporated in the 2018 SOT to measure the variations in delivered feedstock cost. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT has also provided projected delivered feedstock of 2022 design case based on near term technical target under BETO funded R&D project. Finally, updated biorefinery size of 725,000 dry ton/year was incorporated within least-cost formulation model to select optimal siting and depot scales during optimization of the least cost blend. This modification to the optimization algorithm allows the trade-off between the cost of increased supply radius and the savings from selecting biomass from higher producing counties to be assessed. Such optimization has also showed the economic benefit of decentralized depots in comparison to centralized preprocessing co-located with the biorefinery by decoupling the biorefinery and feedstock locations. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT report documents the current modeled cost of a herbaceous feedstock supply system (from harvest to the pretreatment reactor throat, including grower payment) for hydrocarbon fuel production via biochemical conversion, based on equipment and processes now available or potentially available in the near term. The modeled cost also considers both the required quality and the availability of the biomass resources. The 2018 Herbaceous SOT predicts a modeled delivered feedstock cost of $83.67/dry ton (2016$); this is a $0.23/dry ton (2016$) decrease from the 2017 Herbaceous SOT. The modification of biorefinery’s designed capacity and increased projected biomass availability in the same supply shed contributed to this modeled cost reduction. The least-cost formulation model to optimally site and scale local distributed preprocessing depots also contributed to the cost reduction by considering county-level grower payment and distance from the biorefinery as variables in the optimization algorithm. Sensitivity analysis on various process parameters that affect delivered feedstock cost in the 2018 Herbaceous SOT shows that the delivered cost could varies from $80.45-$88.83/dry ton. The top factors that causes such variations are: effective baling rate, bale density, hammer mill throughput, interest rate and storage dry matter loss.
This is the Journal of the Electrochemical Society manuscript that details an NETL analysis on comparing the performance and cost of reversible solid oxide cell (SOC) units versus paired fuel cell (SOFC) and electrolysis cell (SOEC) units. The analysis compares tradeoffs such as capital costs versus rate of performance degradation, sensitivity to natural gas prices, sensitivity to imported power costs, and other relevant analyses. The systems include a high rate (98%) of carbon capture. The analysis shows that given a certain cost of electricity input, either approach could be viable in the market and points to the need to incorporate into a full system to understand impacts.
Advanced multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods, namely system sensitivity analysis and non-hierarchical system decomposition, are applied to reduce the cost and improve the visibility of an automated vehicle design synthesis process. This process is inherently complex due to the large number of functional disciplines and associated interdisciplinary couplings. Recent developments in system sensitivity analysis as applied to complex non-hierarchic multidisciplinary design optimization problems enable the decomposition of these complex interactions into sub-processes that can be evaluated in parallel. The application of these techniques results in significant cost, accuracy, and visibility benefits for the entire design synthesis process.
Blending hydrogen into natural gas infrastructure could supplement natural gas supply and increase resilience for applications such as ammonia production, peaking and load-following power plants, and heating. The United States has an extensive network of natural gas pipelines, but the feasibility of employing this infrastructure to transport hydrogen is unclear. We analyze the costs associated with repurposing three distinct natural gas transmission pipelines in different locations within the United States to carry blends of hydrogen up to 100% via three different pipeline network modification methods and compare against the cost of building a new dedicated hydrogen pipeline. We conduct a sensitivity analysis on the hoop stress limit of the existing pipe, techno-economic parameters, emissions, and relative capacity. The results show that the capital costs required to upgrade a pipeline can vary from tens of millions to billions of dollars depending on the length and capacity of the existing pipeline section, whether the existing pipeline already operates at or below its maximum allowable operating pressure, whether future demand is expected to increase or decrease, the network modification method selected, and pipe material costs. The delivered cost of energy to end users is impacted less by the levelized cost of transporting hydrogen blends than by the cost of the natural gas and hydrogen fuels being transported. The emissions impact of blending hydrogen into natural gas transmission networks scales proportionally with the amount of energy displaced with low-emission hydrogen (such as from natural gas with carbon capture and sequestration or electrolysis powered by nuclear, renewable, or geothermal electricity), therefore low blend ratios (e.g., < 20% vol. hydrogen) will result in low emissions impacts. Factors such as permitting and right-of-way costs, the proximity of the pipeline to hydrogen demand and production, and the compatibility of and/or retrofitting costs of end-use gas-fueled technologies will likely be greater drivers in determining whether converting a particular natural gas pipeline to carry hydrogen makes economic sense.
This study employs a kinetic model integrated into Aspen Plus to predict pyrolysis product distribution under various conditions. A techno-economic assessment calculated the minimum selling price (MSP) of pyrolysis oil under different operating conditions for the baseline capacity of 100 kta, and across eight processing capacities ranging from 30 to 150 kta. The lowest MSP under the baseline capacity is estimated at $\$$420/ton, which is 33% lower than the 2023 average US crude oil price ($\$$74.6/bbl, equivalent to $\$$634/ton based on the density of pyrolysis oil). Under Monte Carlo simulation, accounting for variability in key economic and technical parameters, the mean MSP is estimated at $\$$1137/ton. The economic viability depends on feedstock price remaining below $\$$320/ton, defining the break-even feedstock price threshold. Sensitivity analysis further identifies capital investment and transportation cost as key economic drivers. Capacities beyond 90 kta show limited economies of scale benefits. Reducing product storage time cuts capital costs by 7% but raises operational risk. Uncertainty analysis suggests the economic feasibility of pyrolysis oil is unlikely to compete with crude oil without policy incentives.
The author has identified the following significant results. Surface mining violation estimates were scaled by scores assigned by ten inspectors from western Kentucky to each violation. A sensitivity analysis was made by varying the violation costs; costs were varied by using three different average durations. These durations were: (1) best estimated duration; (2) longest possible duration as restricted by the one year permit renewal and bond release regulations, and (3) shortest possible duration when inspections were made. If a social cost cannot be reduced, then the value of the social cost is irrelevant. Indications from the increased inspection rate of 1975 were that the total amount of fines collected per year remains constant independent of the increased detection rate.
This computer model provides the capability for analyzing long-haul trunking networks comprising a set of user-defined cities, traffic conditions, and tariff rates. Networks may consist of all terrestrial connectivity, all satellite connectivity, or a combination of terrestrial and satellite connectivity. Network solutions provide the least-cost routes between all cities, the least-cost network routing configuration, and terrestrial and satellite service cost totals. The CNDC model allows analyses involving three specific FCC-approved tariffs, which are uniquely structured and representative of most existing service connectivity and pricing philosophies. User-defined tariffs that can be variations of these three tariffs are accepted as input to the model and allow considerable flexibility in network problem specification. The resulting model extends the domain of network analysis from traditional fixed link cost (distance-sensitive) problems to more complex problems involving combinations of distance and traffic-sensitive tariffs.
Techniques are being developed to provide lower cost polysilicon material for solar cells. Existing technology which normally provides semiconductor industry polysilicon material is undergoing changes and also being used to provide polysilicon material for solar cells. Economics of new and existing technologies are presented for producing polysilicon. The economics are primarily based on the preliminary process design of a plant producing 1,000 metric tons/year of silicon. The polysilicon processes include: Siemen's process (hydrogen reduction of trichlorosilane); Union Carbide process (silane decomposition); and Hemlock Semiconductor process (hydrogen reduction of dichlorosilane). The economics include cost estimates of capital investment and product cost to produce polysilicon via the technology. Sensitivity analysis results are also presented to disclose the effect of major paramentes such as utilities, labor, raw materials and capital investment.