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At least 109 records · Page 6

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗

The composition and origin of the Iapetus dark material

In order to investigate the composition of the Iapetus dark material and the reasons for its peculiar distribution, telescopic observations, laboratory simulations, and photogeological studies are conducted. New telescopic spectra of superior accuracy and wavelength coverage for leading and trailing hemispheres are obtained over the range 0.3-2.6 microns. A mixing model is used to correct the leading-hemisphere spectra for the presence of polarcaps. It is shown that the spectral curve of pure Iapetus dark material is highly reddened in the visible, but gradually flattens near 2.0 microns. Structures along the bright-dark boundary, visible in Voyager 2 images, are inconsistent with an eruptive origin for the dark material; this zone is probably the region of grazing impacts of dust spiraling from Phoebe and the dark material is probably a minor component of the ice-dominated surface concentrated in the upper regolith produced by Phoebe-dust bombardment. An Iapetus-like bombardment regime may account for the hemispheric dichotomy of regolith properties on Callisto.

Bell, J. F.↗

A comparison of Gemini and ERTS imagery obtained over southern Morocco

A mosaic constructed from three ERTS MSS band 5 images enlarged to 1:500,000 compares favorably with a similar scale geologic map of southern Morocco, and a near-similar scale Gemini 5 photo pair. A comparative plot of lineations and generalized geology on the three formats show that a significantly greater number of probable fractures are visible on the ERTS imagery than on the Gemini photography, and that both orbital formats show several times more lineaments than were previously mapped. A plot of mineral occurrences on the structural overlays indicates that definite structure-mineralization relationships exist; this finding is used to define underdeveloped areas which are prospective for mineralization. More detailed mapping is possible using MSS imagery than on Gemini 5 photographs, and in addition, the ERTS format is not restricted to limited coverage.

Blodget, H. W.↗

B- and A-Type Stars in the Taurus-Auriga Star-Forming Region

We describe the results of a search for early-type stars associated with the Taurus-Auriga molecular cloud complex, a diffuse nearby star-forming region noted as lacking young stars of intermediate and high mass. We investigate several sets of possible O, B, and early A spectral class members. The first is a group of stars for which mid-infrared images show bright nebulae, all of which can be associated with stars of spectral-type B. The second group consists of early-type stars compiled from (1) literature listings in SIMBAD, (2) B stars with infrared excesses selected from the Spitzer Space Telescope survey of the Taurus cloud, (3) magnitude- and color-selected point sources from the Two Micron All Sky Survey, and (4) spectroscopically identified early-type stars from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey coverage of the Taurus region. We evaluated stars for membership in the Taurus-Auriga star formation region based on criteria involving: spectroscopic and parallactic distances, proper motions and radial velocities, and infrared excesses or line emission indicative of stellar youth. For selected objects, we also model the scattered and emitted radiation from reflection nebulosity and compare the results with the observed spectral energy distributions to further test the plausibility of physical association of the B stars with the Taurus cloud. This investigation newly identifies as probable Taurus members three B-type stars: HR 1445 (HD 28929), τ Tau (HD 29763), 72 Tau (HD 28149), and two A-type stars: HD 31305 and HD 26212, thus doubling the number of stars A5 or earlier associated with the Taurus clouds. Several additional early-type sources including HD 29659 and HD 283815 meet some, but not all, of the membership criteria and therefore are plausible, though not secure, members.

B- and A-Type↗

Fine Particulate Matter Predictions Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) Retrievals

To date, spatial-temporal patterns of particulate matter (PM) within urban areas have primarily been examined using models. On the other hand, satellites extend spatial coverage but their spatial resolution is too coarse. In order to address this issue, here we report on spatial variability in PM levels derived from high 1 km resolution AOD product of Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) algorithm developed for MODIS satellite. We apply day-specific calibrations of AOD data to predict PM(sub 2.5) concentrations within the New England area of the United States. To improve the accuracy of our model, land use and meteorological variables were incorporated. We used inverse probability weighting (IPW) to account for nonrandom missingness of AOD and nested regions within days to capture spatial variation. With this approach we can control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM(sub 2.5) relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles and ground surface reflectance among others. Out-of-sample "ten-fold" cross-validation was used to quantify the accuracy of model predictions. Our results show that the model-predicted PM(sub 2.5) mass concentrations are highly correlated with the actual observations, with out-of- sample R(sub 2) of 0.89. Furthermore, our study shows that the model captures the pollution levels along highways and many urban locations thereby extending our ability to investigate the spatial patterns of urban air quality, such as examining exposures in areas with high traffic. Our results also show high accuracy within the cities of Boston and New Haven thereby indicating that MAIAC data can be used to examine intra-urban exposure contrasts in PM(sub 2.5) levels.

aerosol optical depth↗

Improvements in the Uncertainty Model in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature (GISTEMP) Analysis

We outline a new and improved uncertainty analysis for the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) Surface Temperature product version 4 (GISTEMP v4). Historical spatial variations in surface temperature anomalies are derived from historical weather station data and ocean data from ships, buoys and other sensors. Uncertainties arise from measurement uncertainty, changes in spatial coverage of the station record, and systematic biases due to technology shifts and land cover changes. Previously published uncertainty estimates for GISTEMP included only the effect of incomplete station coverage. Here, we update this term using currently available spatial distributions of source data, state‐of‐the‐art reanalyses and incorporate independently derived estimates for ocean data processing, station homogenization and other structural biases. The resulting 95% uncertainties are near 0.05° C in the global annual mean for the last 50 years, and increase going back further in time reaching 0.15° C in 1880. In addition, we quantify the benefits and inherent uncertainty due to the GISTEMP interpolation and averaging method. We use the total uncertainties to estimate the probability for each record year in the GISTEMP to actually be the true record year (to that date), and conclude with 86% likelihood that 2016 was indeed the hottest year of the instrumental period (so far).

Nathan J L Lenssen↗

Aviation Safety: Modeling and Analyzing Complex Interactions between Humans and Automated Systems

The on-going transformation from the current US Air Traffic System (ATS) to the Next Generation Air Traffic System (NextGen) will force the introduction of new automated systems and most likely will cause automation to migrate from ground to air. This will yield new function allocations between humans and automation and therefore change the roles and responsibilities in the ATS. Yet, safety in NextGen is required to be at least as good as in the current system. We therefore need techniques to evaluate the safety of the interactions between humans and automation. We think that current human factor studies and simulation-based techniques will fall short in front of the ATS complexity, and that we need to add more automated techniques to simulations, such as model checking, which offers exhaustive coverage of the non-deterministic behaviors in nominal and off-nominal scenarios. In this work, we present a verification approach based both on simulations and on model checking for evaluating the roles and responsibilities of humans and automation. Models are created using Brahms (a multi-agent framework) and we show that the traditional Brahms simulations can be integrated with automated exploration techniques based on model checking, thus offering a complete exploration of the behavioral space of the scenario. Our formal analysis supports the notion of beliefs and probabilities to reason about human behavior. We demonstrate the technique with the Ueberligen accident since it exemplifies authority problems when receiving conflicting advices from human and automated systems.

Muti-agent System↗

A New Fine-Scale, Quasi-Global Combined Precipitation Estimate Based on TRMM

A TRMM-based 3-hourly precipitation algorithm is currently under development, with the goal of producing 0.25 deg x 0.25 deg, 3-hourly gridded estimates for the period January 1999 to the present over the latitude band +/-50 deg. [Extension to higher latitudes will be undertaken next]. TMI precipitation estimates are used to calibrate SSM/I estimates, and AMSR, when available. Then a merger of the microwave estimates is used to create a calibrated IR estimate in a Probability-Matched-Threshold approach. The microwave and IR estimates are next combined at the individual 3-hour level. Early results will be shown, including typical tropical and extratropical storm evolution and examples of the diurnal cycle. Major issues will be discussed, including the choice of IR algorithm, the approach to merging the IR and microwave estimates, and extension to the GPCP One-Degree Daily product (for which the authors are responsible). The work described here provides one approach to using data from the future NASA Global Precipitation Measurement program, which is designed to provide full global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours beginning around 2007.

Huffman, George J.↗

Severe storm detection with passive 37 GHz observations

The research objective was to determine the information content of satellite passive 37 GHz brightness temperatures on the severity of thunderstorms through the measurement of the attenuation (scattering) signature of precipitation. The severe storm detection potential of satellite-observed passive 37 GHz radiances was evaluated by comparing Nimbus-7 Scanning Multi-channel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) data to reports of severe weather contained in the NSSFC severe weather log for calendar years 1979 and 1980 over the United States east of the Rocky Mountains. Heavy thunderstorms have a characteristic signature in the form of localized very low 37 GHz T sub B from scattering by precipitation-size ice particles (thick cirrus being transparent at this frequency). The local noon and midnight snapshots taken by the SMMR on alternating days (with incomplete areal coverage of the U.S. on any given day) were scanned to find cases of strong scattering by precipitation, revealed by large differences between the 18 and 37 GHz brightness temperatures, the 37 GHz T sub B being at least 20 C lower than the 18 GHz T sub B. The value of the 37 GHz T sub b was then compared to severe weather reports within one hour of the SMMR observation time, in the vicinity of the SMMR-observed storm. It was found that the degree to which the T sub B were lowered was a fairly good indicator of the probability that the storm was severe. Of 263 storms observed by the SMMR during 1979 and 1980, 54 percent had severe weather associated with them for a T sub b below 203 K, while 8 percent of those above this threshold were severe.

Spencer, R. W.↗

A TRMM-Based System for Real-Time Quasi-Global Merged Precipitation Estimates

A new processing system has been developed to combine IR and microwave data into 0.25 degree x 0.25 degree gridded precipitation estimates in near-real time over the latitude band plus or minus 50 degrees. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) precipitation estimates are used to calibrate Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) estimates, and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) estimates, when available. The merged microwave estimates are then used to create a calibrated IR estimate in a Probability-Matched-Threshold approach for each individual hour. The microwave and IR estimates are combined for each 3-hour interval. Early results will be shown, including typical tropical and extratropical storm evolution and examples of the diurnal cycle. Major issues will be discussed, including the choice of IR algorithm, the approach for merging the IR and microwave estimates, extension to higher latitudes, retrospective processing back to 1999, and extension to the GPCP One-Degree Daily product (for which the authors are responsible). The work described here provides one approach to using data from the future NASA Global Precipitation Measurement program, which is designed to provide Jill global coverage by low-orbit passive microwave satellites every three hours beginning around 2008.

Starr, David OC.↗

Temperature minima in the average thermal structure of the middle mesosphere (70 - 80 km) from analysis of 40- to 92-km SME global temperature profiles

Global temperatures have been derived for the upper stratosphere and mesosphere from analysis of Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) limb radiance profiles. The SME temperature represent fixed local time observations at 1400 - 1500 LT, with partial zonal coverage of 3 - 5 longitudes per day over the 1982-1986 period. These new SME temperatures are compared to the COSPAR International Ionosphere Reference Atmosphere 86 (CIRA 86) climatology (Fleming et al., 1990) as well as stratospheric and mesospheric sounder (SAMS); Barnett and Corney, 1984), National Meteorological Center (NMC); (Gelman et al., 1986), and individual lidar and rocket observations. Significant areas of disagreement between the SME and CIRA 86 mesospheric temperatures are 10 K warmer SME temperatures at altitudes above 80 km. The 1981-1982 SAMS temperatures are in much closer agreement with the SME temperatures between 40 and 75 km. Although much of the SME-CIRA 86 disagreement probably stems from the poor vertical resolution of the observations comprising the CIRA 86 modelm, some portion of the differences may reflect 5- to 10-year temporal variations in mesospheric temperatures. The CIRA 86 climatology is based on 1973-1978 measurements. Relatively large (1 K/yr) 5- to 10-year trends in temperatures as functions of longitude, latitude, and altitude have been observed for both the upper stratosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989a) and mesosphere (Clancy and Rusch, 1989b; Hauchecorne et al., 1991). The SME temperatures also exhibit enhanced amplitudes for the semiannual oscillation (SAO) of upper mesospheric temperatures at low latitudes, which are not evident in the CIRA 86 climatology. The so-called mesospheric `temperature inversions' at wintertime midlatitudes, which have been observed by ground-based lidar (Hauschecorne et al., 1987) and rocket in situ measurements (Schmidlin, 1976), are shown to be a climatological aspect of the mesosphere, based on the SME observations.

Clancy, R. Todd↗

Conceptual design of a spaceborne lightning sensor

A conceptual design of a broad-area optical lightning telescope sensor (BOLTS) designed to provide full-time (day/night) coverage of the continental United States from a geosynchronous orbit is described. Variations are discussed that could cover the whole globe from four to five geosynchronous satellites or cover only smaller areas with a high (2.5 km) resolution. The design is based on research results of the initial phase of a NASA-sponsored program. The ground resolution will be 8 x 8 km. The focal plane is an 800 x 800 pixel CCD array, electronically subdivided to allow for the high data rates (1000 frames per sec) imposed by the characteristics of lightning flashes. It will detect lightning strokes whose optical power is greater than 10 million watts, with a probability of detection of 0.9, and a false alarm rate of 0.1.

Wolfe, W. L.↗

Assessing the Sampleability of Bennu’s Surface for the OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission

NASA’s first asteroid sample return mission, OSIRIS-REx, collected a sample from the surface of near-Earth asteroid Bennu in October 2020 and will deliver it to Earth in September 2023. Selecting a sample collection site on Bennu’s surface was challenging due to the surprising lack of large ponded deposits of regolith particles exclusively fine enough (≤ 2 cm diameter) to be ingested by the spacecraft’s Touch-and-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM). Here we describe the Sampleability Map of Bennu, which was constructed to aid in the selection of candidate sampling sites and to estimate the probability of collecting sufficient sample. “Sampleability” is a numeric score that expresses the compatibility of a given area’s surface properties with the sampling mechanism. The algorithm that determines sampleability is a best fit functional form to an extensive suite of laboratory testing outcomes tracking the TAGSAM performance as a function of four observable properties of the target asteroid. The algorithm and testing were designed to measure and subsequently predict TAGSAM collection amounts as a function of the minimum particle size, maximum particle size, particle size frequency distribution, and the tilt of the TAGSAM head off the surface. The sampleability algorithm operated at two general scales, consistent with the resolution and coverage of data collected during the mission. The first scale was global and evaluated nearly the full surface. Due to Bennu’s unexpected boulder coverage and lack of ponded regolith deposits, the global sampleability efforts relied heavily on additional strategies to find and characterize regions of interest based on quantifying and avoiding areas heavily covered by material too large to be collected. The second scale was site-specific and used higher-resolution data to predict collected mass at a given contact location. The rigorous sampleability assessments gave the mission confidence to select the best possible sample collection site and directly enabled successful collection of hundreds of grams of material.

Asteroid exploration↗

Numerical solutions of the complete Navier-Stokes equations

The objective of this study is to compare the use of assumed pdf (probability density function) approaches for modeling supersonic turbulent reacting flowfields with the more elaborate approach where the pdf evolution equation is solved. Assumed pdf approaches for averaging the chemical source terms require modest increases in CPU time typically of the order of 20 percent above treating the source terms as 'laminar.' However, it is difficult to assume a form for these pdf's a priori that correctly mimics the behavior of the actual pdf governing the flow. Solving the evolution equation for the pdf is a theoretically sound approach, but because of the large dimensionality of this function, its solution requires a Monte Carlo method which is computationally expensive and slow to coverage. Preliminary results show both pdf approaches to yield similar solutions for the mean flow variables.

Hassan, H. A.↗

Geostatistical evaluation of satellite radar altimetry for high-resolution mapping of Lambert Glacier, Antarctica

The potential of satellite radar altimetry for high-resolution mapping of Antarctic ice streams is evaluated, using retracked and slope-corrected data from the Lambert Glacier and Amery Ice Shelf area, East Antarctica, acquired by Geosat during the Exact Repeat Mission (ERM), 1986-89. The map area includes lower Lambert Glacier north of 72.18 deg S, the southern Amery Ice Shelf, and the grounded inland ice sheet on both sides. The Geosat ERM altimetry is found to provide substantially more complete coverage than the 1978 Seasat altimetry, due to improved tracking. Variogram methods are used to estimate the noise levels in the data as a function of position throughout the map area. The spatial structure in the data is quantified by constructing experimental variograms using altimetry from the area of the grounding zone of Lambert Glacier, which is the area chiefly of interest in this topographically complex region. Kriging is employed to invert the along-track height measurements onto a fine-scale 3 km grid. The unsmoothed along-track Geosat ERM altimetry yields spatially continuous maps showing the main topographic features of lower Lambert Glacier, upper Amery Ice Shelf and the adjacent inland ice sheet. The probable position of the grounding line of Lambert Glacier is identified from a break in slope at the grounded ice/floating ice transition. The approximate standard error of the kriged map is inferred from the data noise levels.

Herzfeld, Ute C.↗

Heterogeneous Interactions of ClONO2 and HCl with Sulfuric Acid Tetrahydrate: Implications for the Stratosphere

The reaction probabilities for ClONO2+H2O- HOCl + HNO3 and ClONO2+ HCl Cl2 +HNO3 have been investigated on sulfuric acid tetrahydrate (SAT, H2SO4-4H2O)surfaces at temperatures between 190 and 230 K and at reactant concentrations that are typical in the lower stratosphere, using a fast-flow reactor coupled to a quadrupole mass spectrometer. The results indicate that the reaction probabilities as well as HCl uptake depend strongly on the thermodynamic state of SAT surface: they decrease significantly with decreasing H2O partial pressure at a given temperature, and decrease with increasing temperature at a given H2O partial pressure, as the SAT changes from the H2O-rich form to the H2SO4-rich form. For H2O-rich SAT at 195 K gamma(sub 1) approx. = -0.01 and gamma(sub 2) greater or equal to 0.1, whereas the values for H2SO4-rich SAT decrease by more than 2 orders of magnitude. At low concentrations of HCl, close to those found in the stratosphere, the amount of HCl taken up by H2O-rich SAT films corresponds to a coverage of the order of a tenth of a monolayer (approx. = 10(exp 14) molecules/sq cm); H2SO4-rich SAT films take up 2 orders of magnitude less HCl (les than 10(exp 12) molecules/sq cm). Substantial HCl uptake at high HCl concentrations is also observed, as a result of surface melting. The data reveal that frozen stratospheric sulfate aerosols may play an important role in chlorine activation in the winter polar stratosphere via processes similar to those occurring on the surfaces of polar stratospheric cloud particles.

Zhang, Renyi↗

1SXPS: A Deep Swift X-Ray Telescope Point Source Catalog with Light Curves and Spectra

We present the 1SXPS (Swift-XRT point source) catalog of 151,524 X-ray point sources detected by the Swift-XRT in 8 yr of operation. The catalog covers 1905 sq deg distributed approximately uniformly on the sky. We analyze the data in two ways. First we consider all observations individually, for which we have a typical sensitivity of approximately 3 × 10(exp −13) erg cm(exp −2) s(exp −1) (0.3-10 keV). Then we co-add all data covering the same location on the sky: these images have a typical sensitivity of approximately 9 × 10(exp −14) erg cm(exp −2) s(exp −1) (0.3-10 keV). Our sky coverage is nearly 2.5 times that of 3XMM-DR4, although the catalog is a factor of approximately 1.5 less sensitive. The median position error is 5.5 (90% confidence), including systematics. Our source detection method improves on that used in previous X-ray Telescope (XRT) catalogs and we report greater than 68,000 new X-ray sources. The goals and observing strategy of the Swift satellite allow us to probe source variability on multiple timescales, and we find approximately 30,000 variable objects in our catalog. For every source we give positions, fluxes, time series (in four energy bands and two hardness ratios), estimates of the spectral properties, spectra and spectral fits for the brightest sources, and variability probabilities in multiple energy bands and timescales.

telescope↗

The enigma of lunar magnetism

Current understandings of the nature and probable origin of lunar magnetism are surveyed. Results of examinations of returned lunar samples are discussed which reveal the main carrier of the observed natural remanent magnetization to be iron, occasionally alloyed with nickel and cobalt, but do not distinguish between thermoremanent and shock remanent origins, and surface magnetometer data is presented, which indicates small-scale magnetic fields with a wide range of field intensities implying localized, near-surface sources. A detailed examination is presented of orbital magnetometer and charged particle data concerning the geologic nature and origin of magnetic anomaly sources and the directional properties of the magnetization, which exhibit a random distribution except for a depletion in the north-south direction. A lunar magnetization survey with global coverage provided by a polar orbiting satellite is suggested as a means of placing stronger constraints on the origin of lunar crustal magnetization.

Hood, L. L.↗