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At least 109 records · Page 6

Time-lapse imagery in 2017 and 2018 at the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado

Time-lapse imagery was collected using an automated RGB camera mounted on a pole at the base of the northeast-facing hillslope at the Lower Montane site in the East River Watershed, Colorado. The imagery was intended to support a better understanding of plant dynamics and their controls during the growing season. The dataset includes RGB images archived in four zip files (containing imagery in JPEG format), corresponding to photos taken from the hillslope and the adjacent floodplain during 2017 and 2018. A fifth zip file contains a few AVI movies that compare imagery between the two years. The AVI files can be read with most media players applications. The archive contains a total of five *.zip files and three csv metadata files (flmd.csv, dd.csv, and locations.csv).This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Snow Depth Datasets for Snodgrass Catchment, Colorado, Water Year 2022-2023

This data package presents snow depths data from distributed temperature probes at 18 locations near Snodgrass catchment, Colorado. These data show that snow melt-out dates are approximately one or two weeks later under evergreen forests compared to other vegetation types even at the same elevation. These data were collected to understand how snowmelt heterogeneity impacts headwater hydrology, including streamflow and groundwater levels. They were also used to compare with process-based model simulations of snow depth to evaluate whether the model accurately represents snowmelt dynamics and their effects on headwater hydrology. Snow_DTPs_locations.csv includes all probes locations and their associated elevation and vegetation types. Snow_Depth_Snodgrass_WY2022_2023.csv includes processed snow depths datasets for Water Year (WY) 2022 and 2023. This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. Several probes have recordings for WY 2021.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Digital camera imagery for vegetation phenology, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019-2021

Time lapse camera images from Kougarok mile marker (MM) 64 and Teller MM 27 NGEE-Arctic field sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, captured from July 2019 to August 2021. Thirty three Wingscape Timelapse Pro cameras were deployed targeting patches of low and tall shrubs (including Alnus sp. and Salix sp.) and general vegetation and landscape views. Images from were recorded at hourly intervals from 11 AM to 2 PM, continuously for 25 months and capture vegetation phenology, snow accumulation and snow melt events. This data package includes images (*.jpg), organized by site and camera ID, and metadata with details of the cameras used, number of images recorded, start and end dates, GPS locations and example fields of view. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Preparing an on-Demand Cloud Processing Workflow for NISAR Ecosystems Science Products

In preparation for the NISAR launch and data collection in 2024, the NISAR Project Science Team is building workflows for each Science Team discipline (Ecosystems, Cryosphere, and Solid Earth). This abstract focuses on the Ecosystem disciplines and the development of on-demand cloud-processing workflows for wetlands inundation, forest biomass, agricultural active crop area, and forest disturbance. The workflow simulates NISAR data using UAVSAR or ALOS-2 Single Look Complex data, which are processed to Level 2 geocoded polarimetric covariance matrix products using InSAR Scientific Computing Environment 3.0 software and to Level 3 science products using the Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents. In this presentation, we describe these workflows and efforts to improve efficiency and data accessibility by using a cloud processing system. We present preliminary sample products from each Ecosystem discipline: inundation, forest biomass, crop area, and forest disturbance.

Christensen, Alexandra↗

Snow Distribution Patterns Revisited: A Physics-Based and Machine Learning Hybrid Approach to Snow Distribution Mapping in the Sub-Arctic

Snowpack distribution in Arctic and alpine landscapes often occurs in repeating, year-to-year patterns due to local topographic, weather, and vegetation characteristics. Previous studies have suggested that with years of observational data, these snow distribution patterns can be statistically integrated into a snow process modeling workflow. Recent advances in snow hydrology and machine learning (ML) have increased our ability to predict snowpack distribution using in-situ observations, remote sensing data sets, and simple landscape characteristics that can be easily obtained for most environments. Here, we propose a hybrid approach to couple a ML snow distribution pattern (MLSDP) map with a physics-based, snow process model. We trained a random forest ML algorithm on tens of thousands of snow survey observations from a subarctic study area on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, collected during peak snow water equivalent (SWE). We validated hybrid model outputs using in-situ snow depth and SWE observations, as well as a light detection and ranging data set and a distributed temperature profiling sensor data set. When the hybrid results were compared with the physics-based method, the hybrid method more accurately depicted the spatial patterns of the snowpack, areas of drifting snow, and years when no in-situ observations were used in the random forest ML training data set. The hybrid method also showed improvements in root mean squared error at 61% of locations where time-series estimations of snow depth were observed. These results can be applied to any physics-based model to improve the snow distribution patterning to reflect observed conditions in high latitude and high elevation cold region environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Arctic

The Arctic environment in 2024 continued on a trajectory that has put it in a state far different from that of the twentieth century. Ongoing accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continues to quickly warm the Arctic, resulting in rapid changes in the cryosphere that are driving cascading impacts to climate, ecological, and societal systems. Many weather- and climate-related impacts in the Arctic are the result of compounding change, such as increased riverbank erosion, which is proximately due to increased river discharge from higher seasonal precipitation, yet is also exacerbated by thawing permafrost. However, even individual storms occur within very different ocean and ice conditions than were typically present in the late twentieth century. As a result, the impacts, including high winds, excessive precipitation, and coastal inundation, may be quite different nowadays, as exemplified by the October 2024 storm in northwest Alaska that produced severe coastal flooding in several communities. To share some of these impacts with a wider audience, select extreme weather impacts around the greater Arctic have been highlighted through the inclusion of sidebars in recent State of the Climate Arctic chapters (e.g., Benestad et al. 2023; Thoman et al. 2024).

Thoman, Richard L. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK↗

Partial Support for the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research

An interagency collaboration initiated between Navy, Air Force and NOAA and expanded to DOE, NASA, and NSF in 2012, for coordination of research to operations of a National earth system analysis and prediction capability. The goal of ESPC is to meet broad but specific agency requirements for an earth system analysis and prediction framework to support one-day to decadal global prediction at appropriate horizontal and vertical resolution; including the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling the coupled mercury-halogen-ozone cycle in the central Arctic during spring

Near-surface mercury and ozone depletion events occur in the lowest part of the atmosphere during Arctic spring. Mercury depletion is the first step in a process that transforms long-lived elemental mercury to more reactive forms within the Arctic that are deposited to the cryosphere, ocean, and other surfaces, which can ultimately get integrated into the Arctic food web. Depletion of both mercury and ozone occur due to the presence of reactive halogen radicals that are released from snow, ice, and aerosols. In this work, we added a detailed description of the Arctic atmospheric mercury cycle to our recently published version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem 4.3.3) that includes Arctic bromine and chlorine chemistry and activation/recycling on snow and aerosols. The major advantage of our modelling approach is the online calculation of bromine concentrations and emission/recycling that is required to simulate the hourly and daily variability of Arctic mercury depletion. We used this model to study coupling between reactive cycling of mercury, ozone, and bromine during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) spring season in 2020 and evaluated results compared to land-based, ship-based, and remote sensing observations. The model predicts that elemental mercury oxidation is driven largely by bromine chemistry and that particulate mercury is the major form of oxidized mercury. The model predicts that the majority (74%) of oxidized mercury deposited to land-based snow is re-emitted to the atmosphere as gaseous elemental mercury, while a minor fraction (4%) of oxidized mercury that is deposited to sea ice is re-emitted during spring. Our work demonstrates that hourly differences in bromine/ozone chemistry in the atmosphere must be considered to capture the springtime Arctic mercury cycle, including its integration into the cryosphere and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

How Snow Drives the Seasonal Evolution of Land and Sea Surface Albedos in the Alaskan High Arctic: Final Technical Report

The purpose of the project was to observe and quantify temporal variation in snow albedo and snow characteristics across the Arctic coastal landscape as winter transitioned into spring and snowmelt occurred, both on tundra and sea ice. This transition is bounded by fully snow-covered landscapes with broadband albedos of approximately 0.8 and snow-free landscapes with albedos of 0.15 (tundra or ponded sea ice). For these landscapes, we monitored the spring surface characteristics and radiative properties nearly daily at three locations on or near the Department of Energy ARM North Slope of Alaska (NSA) User Facility in Utqiagvik, Alaska: the central NSA Facility (hereafter called ARM), one near NSA-E12 (BEO), and one on the sea ice of Elson Lagoon (ICE) during three melt seasons (2019, 2022, and 2024). The field campaign component of this award was named SALVO ( S now AL bedo E VO lution). Typical field seasons began in mid-April and lasted until mid-June. Main measurements included snow depth (at 1-m intervals), broadband albedo (at 5-m intervals), spectral albedo (at 5- m intervals), and multiple digital images. Orthomosaics were converted into binary images to determine the snow-covered fraction over time across various landscapes. Additional measurements included basic weather data and snow-ground (or ice) interface temperatures. Sky conditions were observed and photographed to help assess albedo values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genomic profiles of four novel cyanobacteria MAGs from Lake Vanda, Antarctica: insights into photosynthesis, cold tolerance, and the circadian clock

Cyanobacteria in polar environments face environmental challenges, including cold temperatures and extreme light seasonality with small diurnal variation, which has implications for polar circadian clocks. However, polar cyanobacteria remain underrepresented in available genomic data, and there are limited opportunities to study their genetic adaptations to these challenges. This paper presents four new Antarctic cyanobacteria metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from microbial mats in Lake Vanda in the McMurdo Dry Valleys in Antarctica. The four MAGs were classified as Leptolyngbya sp. BulkMat.35, Pseudanabaenaceae cyanobacterium MP8IB2.15, Microcoleus sp. MP8IB2.171, and Leptolyngbyaceae cyanobacterium MP9P1.79. The MAGs contain 2.76 Mbp – 6.07 Mbp, and the bin completion ranges from 74.2–92.57%. Furthermore, the four cyanobacteria MAGs have average nucleotide identities (ANIs) under 90% with each other and under 77% with six existing polar cyanobacteria MAGs and genomes. This suggests that they are novel cyanobacteria and demonstrates that polar cyanobacteria genomes are underrepresented in reference databases and there is continued need for genome sequencing of polar cyanobacteria. Analyses of the four novel and six existing polar cyanobacteria MAGs and genomes demonstrate they have genes coding for various cold tolerance mechanisms and most standard circadian rhythm genes with the Leptolyngbya sp. BulkMat.35 and Leptolyngbyaceae cyanobacterium MP9P1.79 contained kaiB3, a divergent homolog of kaiB.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗

Ice nucleating particle concentrations in the Arctic during MOSAiC 2020

This data set contains ice nucleating particle (INP) measurements, using Colorado State University’s (CSU) Ice Spectrometer (IS) of samples collected during the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) field campaign. Samples were collected from five different media: aerosol filters, meltwater, ice cores, snow pits, and bulk sea water (BSW).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E3SM Water Cycle Visualization Project (Final Report)

Motivated by the need to improve visualizations of Earth's complex water cycle, this team embarked on non-trivial tasks to push from traditional methods of viewing data from simulations as static line graphs and contour plots into new realms with multiple dimensions (three spatial dimensions and the time component) viewable at once. To do this, we chose to feature the extremes in the general circulation of the atmosphere because these Earth system elements are short-lived, but impactful events. We used simulation data produced by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM),which is designed to answer DOE science questions using DOE computing facilities. The E3SM project includes three sets of simulation experiments: cryosphere, bio-geochemical cycles, and the water cycle. The water cycle experiment campaign includes a set of simulations designed to understand how the water cycle will change in coming decades under a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

New Frontiers in Geoengineering Research

In late summer 2019, the ninth annual workshop of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP; http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/GeoMIP) convened at Beijing Normal University (Fig. 1). This meeting was held in conjunction with a summer school in which 89 participants from five continents learned about climate modeling of solar geoengineering, also known as climate engineering or climate intervention. Solar geoengineering refers to “radiation management” methods, which involve deliberate manipulations of the radiation budget through potential technologies such as stratospheric sulfate aerosols, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus thinning, but not CO2 removal. The students at the summer school were mainly physical science majors, with many from China, but also included some social science people. The summer school was focused on impact modeling (e.g., on agriculture and the cryosphere) and consideration of extremes, rather than just looking at climate modeloutput. There were also lectures on governance and economics. This event signifies the first major international geoengineering meeting held in Asia.

Kravitz, Benjamin S.↗

The Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) Arctic Futures 2050 Conference. Final Report

The Arctic Futures 2050 Conference was designed as a novel convening of Arctic scientists, Indigenous people, and decision makers, including policy makers at all levels of government. The conference was held 4–6 September 2019 in Washington, D.C. and gathered nearly 400 participants to explore six questions: What do we know, and what do we need to know about the Arctic—and why does it matter? What challenges confront policy makers in the rapidly changing Arctic? What basic research is needed to inform responses to Arctic change? What applied research is needed to inform responses to change? What tools can facilitate informing policy making with science and Indigenous knowledge? What opportunities exist for partnerships between policy makers and scientists? A conference report (see: https://www.searcharcticscience.org/arctic-2050/conference-2019/products) detailed all conference discussions. The main conference conclusion was that holistic understanding and useful adaptation to rapid Arctic change requires bringing together scientists, Indigenous Knowledge holders, and policy makers in all phases of defining the problems, conducting research, and sharing knowledge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗