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NASA NTRS2019

Exploring the Utility of Machine Learning-Based Passive Microwave Brightness Temperature Data Assimilation over Terrestrial Snow in High Mountain Asia

This study explores the use of a support vector machine (SVM) as the observation operator within a passive microwave brightness temperature data assimilation framework (herein SVM-DA) to enhance the characterization of snow water equivalent (SWE) over High Mountain Asia (HMA). A series of synthetic twin experiments were conducted with the NASA Land Information System (LIS) at a number of locations across HMA. Overall, the SVM-DA framework is effective at improving SWE estimates (~70% reduction in RMSE relative to the Open Loop) for SWE depths less than 200 mm during dry snowpack conditions. The SVM-DA framework also improves SWE estimates in deep, wet snow (~45% reduction in RMSE) when snow liquid water is well estimated by the land surface model, but can lead to model degradation when snow liquid water estimates diverge from values used during SVM training. In particular, two key challenges of using the SVM-DA framework were observed over deep, wet snowpacks. First, variations in snow liquid water content dominate the brightness temperature spectral difference (TB) signal associated with emission from a wet snowpack, which can lead to abrupt changes in SWE during the analysis update. Second, the ensemble of SVM-based predictions can collapse (i.e., yield a near-zero standard deviation across the ensemble) when prior estimates of snow are outside the range of snow inputs used during the SVM training procedure. Such a scenario can lead to the presence of spurious error correlations between SWE and TB, and as a consequence, can result in degraded SWE estimates from the analysis update. These degraded analysis updates can be largely mitigated by applying rule-based approaches. For example, restricting the SWE update when the standard deviation of the predicted TB is greater than 0.05 K helps prevent the occurrence of filter divergence. Similarly, adding a thin layer (i.e., 5 mm) of SWE when the synthetic TB is larger than 5 K can improve SVM-DA performance in the presence of a precipitation dry bias. The study demonstrates that a carefully constructed SVM-DA framework cognizant of the inherent limitations of passive microwave-based SWE estimation holds promise for snow mass data assimilation.

Kwon, Yonghwan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feature learning and generalization in deep networks with orthogonal weights

Fully-connected deep neural networks with weights initialized from independent Gaussian distributions can be tuned to criticality, which prevents the exponential growth or decay of signals propagating through the network. However, such networks still exhibit fluctuations that grow linearly with the depth of the network, which may impair the training of networks with width comparable to depth. We show analytically that rectangular networks with tanh activations and weights initialized from the ensemble of orthogonal matrices have corresponding preactivation fluctuations which are independent of depth, to leading order in inverse width. Moreover, we demonstrate numerically that, at initialization, all correlators involving the neural tangent kernel (NTK) and its descendants at leading order in inverse width—which govern the evolution of observables during training—saturate at a depth of ~20, rather than growing without bound as in the case of Gaussian initializations. We speculate that this structure preserves finite-width feature learning while reducing overall noise, thus improving both generalization and training speed in deep networks with depth comparable to width. We provide some experimental justification by relating empirical measurements of the NTK to the superior performance of deep non-linear orthogonal networks trained under full-batch gradient descent on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 classification tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Organized Convection Representation in the Unified Model: Implementing and Enhancing Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large-scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. The scheme also improves Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with observational and reanalysis data by intensifying the simulated MJO over the Indian Ocean during phases 4 to 5. However, the scheme increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation and further improves the seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advances beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision calibration of calorimeter signals in the ATLAS experiment using an uncertainty-aware neural network

The ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider explores the use of modern neural networks for a multi-dimensional calibration of its calorimeter signal defined by clusters of topologically connected cells (topo-clusters). The Bayesian neural network (BNN) approach not only yields a continuous and smooth calibration function that improves performance relative to the standard calibration but also provides uncertainties on the calibrated energies for each topo-cluster. The results obtained by using a trained BNN are compared to the standard local hadronic calibration and to a calibration provided by training a deep neural network. The uncertainties predicted by the BNN are interpreted in the context of a fractional contribution to the systematic uncertainties of the trained calibration. They are also compared to uncertainty predictions obtained from an alternative estimator employing repulsive ensembles.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report on the AAPM grand challenge on deep generative modeling for learning medical image statistics

Abstract Background The findings of the 2023 AAPM Grand Challenge on Deep Generative Modeling for Learning Medical Image Statistics are reported in this Special Report. Purpose The goal of this challenge was to promote the development of deep generative models for medical imaging and to emphasize the need for their domain‐relevant assessments via the analysis of relevant image statistics. Methods As part of this Grand Challenge, a common training dataset and an evaluation procedure was developed for benchmarking deep generative models for medical image synthesis. To create the training dataset, an established 3D virtual breast phantom was adapted. The resulting dataset comprised about 108 000 images of size 512 512. For the evaluation of submissions to the Challenge, an ensemble of 10 000 DGM‐generated images from each submission was employed. The evaluation procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, a preliminary check for memorization and image quality (via the Fréchet Inception Distance [FID]) was performed. Submissions that passed the first stage were then evaluated for the reproducibility of image statistics corresponding to several feature families including texture, morphology, image moments, fractal statistics, and skeleton statistics. A summary measure in this feature space was employed to rank the submissions. Additional analyses of submissions was performed to assess DGM performance specific to individual feature families, the four classes in the training data, and also to identify various artifacts. Results Fifty‐eight submissions from 12 unique users were received for this Challenge. Out of these 12 submissions, 9 submissions passed the first stage of evaluation and were eligible for ranking. The top‐ranked submission employed a conditional latent diffusion model, whereas the joint runners‐up employed a generative adversarial network, followed by another network for image superresolution. In general, we observed that the overall ranking of the top 9 submissions according to our evaluation method (i) did not match the FID‐based ranking, and (ii) differed with respect to individual feature families. Another important finding from our additional analyses was that different DGMs demonstrated similar kinds of artifacts. Conclusions This Grand Challenge highlighted the need for domain‐specific evaluation to further DGM design as well as deployment. It also demonstrated that the specification of a DGM may differ depending on its intended use.

Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging↗

DOE OSTI2025

Spatially resolved charge-transfer kinetics at the quantum dot–microbe interface using fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy

Integrating the optoelectronic properties of quantum dots (QDs) with biological enzymatic systems to form microbe-semiconductor biohybrids offers promising prospects for both solar-to-chemical conversion and light-modulated biochemical processes. Developing these nano–bio hybrid systems necessitates a deep understanding of charge-transfer dynamics at the nano–bio interface. Photoexcited carrier transfer from QDs to microbes is driven by complex interactions, with emerging insights into the relevant thermodynamic and kinetic factors. The heterogeneities of both microbes and QD ensembles pose significant challenges in mechanistic understanding, which is critical for designing advanced nano–bio hybrids. We used fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy to analyze charge transfer between a CdSe QD film andShewanella oneidensismicrobes. We correlated the spatiotemporal fluorescence data with an analytical model. Our analysis revealed two distinct distributions of QD de-excitation pathways. The characteristics of these distributions: 1) a faster transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 1 = 1.5 10 9 s - 1 ), with a lower acceptor number ( N ¯ a 1 = 0.03 ) and 2) a slower transfer rate ( k ¯ E T 2 = 4.1 10 8 s - 1 ) with a higher acceptor number ( N ¯ a 2 = 0.18 ). We assign these distributions to the indirect and direct electron transfer mechanisms, respectively. Our findings demonstrate how spectroscopic imaging can uncover fundamental electron transfer mechanisms at complex interfaces, offering valuable design principles for future nano–bio hybrids.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic mean-field theory and applications to multinucleon transfer and kinetic energy dissipation processes in heavy-ion collisions

In this Review article, a brief description of the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory for describing reaction dynamics in low-energy heavy-ion collisions at bombarding energies in the vicinity of the Coulomb barrier is presented. In these collisions, as a result of strong Pauli blocking, binary nucleon collisions do not have a significant effect on the dissipation and fluctuations. At low energies, the mean-field fluctuations, due to initial correlations, have a dominant effect on fluctuations of macroscopic variables. The SMF theory proposes the determination of an ensemble of single-particle density matrices by specifying random initial fluctuations according to a distribution law. Employing an ensemble of single-particle density matrices, not only the mean values but also the distribution functions of the one-body observables can be determined. If the di-nuclear structure is maintained in heavy-ion collisions, such as deep inelastic collisions and fast quasi-fission reactions, a much simpler description of the reaction mechanism can be derived in terms of several macroscopic variables such as mass and charge asymmetry, and relative linear and relative angular momentum. In this case, by geometric projection of the SMF equations, it is possible to derive the quantal Langevin equations for macroscopic variables. As an application of quantal transport description, an analysis of multinucleon transfers and kinetic energy dissipation and fluctuations is presented for selected quasi-fission reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-derived planetary boundary layer height from conventional meteorological measurements

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer (PBL) height (PBLH) is an important parameter for various meteorological and climate studies. This study presents a multi-structure deep neural network (DNN) model, which can estimate PBLH by integrating the morning temperature profiles and surface meteorological observations. The DNN model is developed by leveraging a rich dataset of PBLH derived from long-standing radiosonde records augmented with high-resolution micro-pulse lidar and Doppler lidar observations. We access the performance of the DNN with an ensemble of 10 members, each featuring distinct hidden-layer structures, which collectively yield a robust 27-year PBLH dataset over the southern Great Plains from 1994 to 2020. The influence of various meteorological factors on PBLH is rigorously analyzed through the importance test. Moreover, the DNN model's accuracy is evaluated against radiosonde observations and juxtaposed with conventional remote sensing methodologies, including Doppler lidar, ceilometer, Raman lidar, and micro-pulse lidar. The DNN model exhibits reliable performance across diverse conditions and demonstrates lower biases relative to remote sensing methods. In addition, the DNN model, originally trained over a plain region, demonstrates remarkable adaptability when applied to the heterogeneous terrains and climates encountered during the GoAmazon (Green Ocean Amazon; tropical rainforest) and CACTI (Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions; middle-latitude mountain) campaigns. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning models in estimating PBLH, enhancing our understanding of boundary layer processes with implications for improving the representation of PBL in weather forecasting and climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations Using Satellite Radiance Observations and Multi-Frequency Satellite Simulators

This paper proposes a methodology known as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Triple-Sensor Three-step Evaluation Framework (T3EF) for the systematic evaluation of precipitating cloud types and microphysics in a cloud-resolving model (CRM). T3EF utilizes multi-frequency satellite simulators and novel statistics of multi-frequency radiance and backscattering signals observed from the TRMM satellite. Specifically, T3EF compares CRM and satellite observations in the form of combined probability distributions of precipitation radar (PR) reflectivity, polarization-corrected microwave brightness temperature (Tb), and infrared Tb to evaluate the candidate CRM. T3EF is used to evaluate the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for cases involving the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). This evaluation reveals that the GCE properly captures the satellite-measured frequencies of different precipitating cloud types in the SCSMEX case but underestimates the frequencies of deep convective and deep stratiform types in the KWAJEX case. Moreover, the GCE tends to simulate excessively large and abundant frozen condensates in deep convective clouds as inferred from the overestimated GCE-simulated radar reflectivities and microwave Tb depressions. Unveiling the detailed errors in the GCE s performance provides the best direction for model improvements.

Matsui, Toshihisa↗

NASA NTRS1985

Response of cumulus clouds to large-scale forcing and cumulus parameterization

Using the cumulus ensemble model (Soong and Ogura, 1980), statistical properties of cumulus clouds that occur in response to the imposed large scale forcing were investigated both in the tropical and midlatitude situtations. A strong drying process was found to occur in the boundary layer in association with deep convection in a midlatitude case. The Arakawa-Schubert (1974) cumulus parameterization scheme was tested semi-prognostically against both the model result and the observation in a tropical rain event that occurred in GATE. The Cloud heating and drying effects predicted by the Arakawa-Schubert scheme were found to agree well both with the observation and the model result. However, it was also found that the Arakawa-Schuber scheme underestimates both condensation and evaporation rates substantially. An inclusion of the downdraft effect, as formulated by Johnson (1976), appears to alleviate this deficiency. This downdraft effect may be important in predicting the behavior of the boundary accurately.

Ogura, Y.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing robust energy policy packages under deep uncertainty: A multi-metric decision support framework

The complexity of transitioning to sustainable energy systems requires policy frameworks capable of balancing multiple objectives while addressing deep uncertainty. However, existing approaches often lack systematic methods to identify combinations of policy levers that remain effective across a wide range of uncertain futures. This paper presents a novel decision support framework that guides the selection of robust policy packages based on their performance across multiple objectives under uncertainty. Our method leverages a large ensemble of scenarios and applies scenario discovery techniques to identify influential policy levers. Here, we introduce new indicators to assess the robustness of policies by evaluating their ability to mitigate adverse outcomes across metrics. These indicators support an iterative process to build a robust policy package. Finally, we map the technological and energy pathways associated with the robust policy package by leveraging an energy system optimization model. We illustrate the application of this framework to the Spanish energy system, providing insights into how specific combinations of policy levers shape decarbonization pathways under uncertainty.

Decision-support method↗

NASA NTRS2004

A New Approach to Using a Cloud-Resolving Model to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation and Aerosols

Recently Grabowski and Khairoutdinov and Randall have proposed and demonstrated, the feasibility of using 2D CRMs (these did not include detailed land processes and used periodic lateral boundary conditions) as 'super-parameterizations or a multi-scale modeling framework MMF' for cloud processes within atmospheric generation circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization that is used in conventional GCMs. An overview of this approach is given by Randall et al.. Since a CRM can explicitly simulate cloud processes at the natural space and time scales of clouddynamical processes, it's possible to compute statistics of cloud fields, including radiances and radar backscatters, directly simulated/produced by the CRM. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on a 2D GCE model and the Goddard fvGCM. A prototype MMF will be developed at end of 2004. The major objectives are to test and evaluate its performance using the GCE model as the super parameterization and compare its results with other super parameterizations, conventional GCMs and observations. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (WE) model. The GCE model is a CRM and it has been improved and applied to study the precipitation processes in the past two decades. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low 'clean' concentration and a high 'dirty' concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated. In addition, the similarities and differences between bulk- and spectral-bin microphysics will be presented,

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2010

Integrating Enhanced Grace Terrestrial Water Storage Data Into the U.S. and North American Drought Monitors

NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites measure time variations nf the Earth's gravity field enabling reliable detection of spatio-temporal variations in total terrestrial water storage (TWS), including ground water. The U.S. and North American Drought Monitors are two of the premier drought monitoring products available to decision-makers for assessing and minimizing drought impacts, but they rely heavily on precipitation indices and do not currently incorporate systematic observations of deep soil moisture and groundwater storage conditions. Thus GRACE has great potential to improve the Drought Monitors hy filling this observational gap. Horizontal, vertical and temporal disaggregation of the coarse-resolution GRACE TWS data has been accomplished by assimilating GRACE TWS anomalies into the Catchment Land Surface Model using ensemble Kalman smoother. The Drought Monitors combine several short-term and long-term drought indices and indicators expressed in percentiles as a reference to their historical frequency of occurrence for the location and time of year in question. To be consistent, we are in the process of generating a climatology of estimated soil moisture and ground water based on m 60-year Catchment model simulation which will subsequently be used to convert seven years of GRACE assimilated fields into soil moisture and groundwater percentiles. for systematic incorporation into the objective blends that constitute Drought Monitor baselines. At this stage we provide a preliminary evaluation of GRACE assimilated Catchment model output against independent datasets including soil moisture observations from Aqua AMSR-E and groundwater level observations from the U.S. Geological Survey's Groundwater Climate Response Network.

Housborg, Rasmus↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

CMIP5↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Calibration for Cancer Risk Projections According to Uncertain Data

This paper presents forward and inverse formulations for the calibration of computational models according to uncertain data. Uncertainty in the data might be caused by a poor metrology system, measurement noise, missing or uncontrollable input variables, or by the inability to directly measure the inputs and/or outputs of interest. The forward approach performs the calibration in the space of the model’s output thereby requiring repeated model simulations. Conversely, the inverse approach leverages an ensemble of solutions to an inverse problem in order to perform the calibration in the space of the model’s parameters. As such, the computational demands of the inverse approach are considerably lower. These strategies are applied to the calibration of a radiation model that in-forms cancer risk projections for future deep space missions.

uncertainty quantification↗

NASA NTRS1992

QSO's to B less than 22 and the cosmic x ray background radiation: A fluctuations correlation approach

The contribution of faint Quasi Stellar Objects (QSO's) and other discrete sources to the cosmic X-Ray Background (XRB) is estimated using an optically selected QSO sample in SA 68.2 in conjunction with archived x-ray images from the Einstein Image Proportional Counter (IPC). A new generalization of the 'x-ray image stacking' technique is employed; this new approach tests for a positional 'correlation' between positive x-ray fluctuations in the IPC images, and the locations of the optically selected QSO's. Correlation with thirty SA 68.2 QSO's permits a highly sensitive measurement of the ensemble mean x-ray flux for QSO's with 19 less than B(sub J) less than 22. Although the IPC images are of modest depth, a limiting sensitivity 1.2 times 10 to the minus 14th power erg/sec/sq cm (0.3 to 3.5 keV) is effectively archieved comparable to that of the Rosat medium deep surveys.

Anderson, S. F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Search for optimal distance spectrum convolutional codes

In order to communicate reliably and to reduce the required transmitter power, NASA uses coded communication systems on most of their deep space satellites and probes (e.g. Pioneer, Voyager, Galileo, and the TDRSS network). These communication systems use binary convolutional codes. Better codes make the system more reliable and require less transmitter power. However, there are no good construction techniques for convolutional codes. Thus, to find good convolutional codes requires an exhaustive search over the ensemble of all possible codes. In this paper, an efficient convolutional code search algorithm was implemented on an IBM RS6000 Model 580. The combination of algorithm efficiency and computational power enabled us to find, for the first time, the optimal rate 1/2, memory 14, convolutional code.

Connor, Matthew C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Scattering and Extinction by Spherical Particles Immersed in an Absorbing Host Medium

Many applications of electromagnetic scattering involve particles immersed in an absorbing rather than lossless medium, thereby making the conventional scattering theory potentially inapplicable. To analyze this issue quantitatively, we employ the FORTRAN program developed recently on the basis of the first-principles electromagnetic theory to study far-field scattering by spherical particles embedded in an absorbing infinite host medium. We further examine the phenomenon of negative extinction identified recently for monodisperse spheres and uncover additional evidence in favor of its interference origin. We identify the main effects of increasing the width of the size distribution on the ensemble-averaged extinction efficiency factor and show that negative extinction can be eradicated by averaging over a very narrow size distribution. We also analyze, for the first time, the effects of absorption inside the host medium and ensemble averaging on the phase function and other elements of the Stokes scattering matrix. It is shown in particular that increasing absorption significantly suppresses the interference structure and can result in a dramatic expansion of the areas of positive polarization. Furthermore, the phase functions computed for larger effective size parameters can develop a very deep minimum at side-scattering angles bracketed by a strong diffraction peak in the forward direction and a pronounced backscattering maximum.

Far-field electromagnetic scattering; Absorbing ho↗