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DOE OSTI2024

Kicking the can down the road: understanding the effects of delaying the deployment of stratospheric aerosol injection

Abstract Climate change is a prevalent threat, and it is unlikely that current mitigation efforts will be enough to avoid unwanted impacts. One potential option to reduce climate change impacts is the use of stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Even if SAI is ultimately deployed, it might be initiated only after some temperature target is exceeded. The consequences of such a delay are assessed herein. This study compares two cases, with the same target global mean temperature of ∼1.5° C above preindustrial, but start dates of 2035 or a ‘delayed’ start in 2045. We make use of simulations in the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Coupled Chemistry Model version 6 (CESM2-WACCM6), using SAI under the SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. We find that delaying the start of deployment (relative to the target temperature) necessitates lower net radiative forcing (−30%) and thus larger sulfur dioxide injection rates (+20%), even after surface temperatures converge, to compensate for the extra energy absorbed by the Earth system. Southern hemisphere ozone is higher from 2035 to 2050 in the delayed start scenario, but converges to the same value later in the century. However, many of the surface climate differences between the 2035 and 2045 start simulations appear to be small during the 10–25 years following the delayed SAI start, although longer simulations would be needed to assess any longer-term impacts in this model. In addition, irreversibilities and tipping points that might be triggered during the period of increased warming may not be adequately represented in the model but could change this conclusion in the real world.

Brody, Ezra (ORCID:000900030008681X)↗

DOE OSTI2025

TDCOSMO - XVII. New time delays in 22 lensed quasars from optical monitoring with the ESO-VST 2.6m and MPG 2.2m telescopes

We present new time delays, the main ingredient of time delay cosmography, for 22 lensed quasars resulting from high-cadence r-band monitoring on the 2.6 m ESO VLT Survey Telescope and Max-Planck-Gesellschaft 2.2 m telescope. Each lensed quasar was typically monitored for one to four seasons, often shared between the two telescopes to mitigate the interruptions forced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample of targets consists of 19 quadruply and 3 doubly imaged quasars, which received a total of 1918 hours of on-sky time split into 21 581 wide-field frames, each 320 seconds long. In a given field, the 5-σ depth of the combined exposures typically reaches the 27th magnitude, while that of single visits is 24.5 mag – similar to the expected depth of the upcoming Vera-Rubin LSST. The fluxes of the different lensed images of the targets were reliably de-blended, providing not only light curves with photometric precision down to the photon noise limit, but also high-resolution models of the targets whose features and astrometry were systematically confirmed in Hubble Space Telescope imaging. This was made possible thanks to a new photometric pipeline, lightcurver, and the forward modelling method STARRED. Finally, the time delays between pairs of curves and their uncertainties were estimated, taking into account the degeneracy due to microlensing, and for the first time the full covariance matrices of the delay pairs are provided. Of note, this survey, with 13 square degrees, has applications beyond that of time delays, such as the study of the structure function of the multiple high-redshift quasars present in the footprint at a new high in terms of both depth and frequency. The reduced images will be available through the European Southern Observatory Science Portal.Key words: methods: data analysis / surveys / distance scale

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS1975

Fixed-base simulator study of the effect of time delays in visual cues on pilot tracking performance

Factors were examined which determine the amount of time delay acceptable in the visual feedback loop in flight simulators. Acceptable time delays are defined as delays which significantly affect neither the results nor the manner in which the subject 'flies' the simulator. The subject tracked a target aircraft as it oscillated sinusoidally in a vertical plane only. The pursuing aircraft was permitted five degrees of freedom. Time delays of from 0.047 to 0.297 second were inserted in the visual feedback loop. A side task was employed to maintain the workload constant and to insure that the pilot was fully occupied during the experiment. Tracking results were obtained for 17 aircraft configurations having different longitudinal short-period characteristics. Results show a positive correlation between improved handling qualities and a longer acceptable time delay.

Queijo, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Structural Properties and Estimation of Delay Systems

Two areas in the theory of delay systems were studied: structural properties and their applications to feedback control, and optimal linear and nonlinear estimation. The concepts of controllability, stabilizability, observability, and detectability were investigated. The property of pointwise degeneracy of linear time-invariant delay systems is considered. Necessary and sufficient conditions for three dimensional linear systems to be made pointwise degenerate by delay feedback were obtained, while sufficient conditions for this to be possible are given for higher dimensional linear systems. These results were applied to obtain solvability conditions for the minimum time output zeroing control problem by delay feedback. A representation theorem is given for conditional moment functionals of general nonlinear stochastic delay systems, and stochastic differential equations are derived for conditional moment functionals satisfying certain smoothness properties.

Kwong, R. H. S.↗

NASA NTRS1975

A collection of articles on S/X-band experiment zero delay ranging tests, volume 1

Articles are presented which are concerned with the development of special test equipment and a dual-frequency zero delay device (ZDD) that were required for range tests and the measurement of ground station delays for the Mariner-Venus-Mercury 1973 S/X-band experiment. Test data obtained at DSS 14 after installation of the ZDD on the 64-m antenna are given. It is shown that large variations of range were observed as a function of antenna elevation angle and were sensitive to antenna location. A ranging calibration configuration that was subsequently developed and a technique for determining the appropriate Z-correction are described. Zero delay test data at DSS 14 during the Mariner 10 Venus-Mercury-Encounter periods (1974 days 12-150) are presented. The theoretical analysis and experimental verifications are included of the effects of multipath and effects of discontinuities on range delay measurements. A movable subreflector technique and the multipath theory were used to isolate principal multipath errors on the 64-m antenna and to enable a more accurate determination of the actual ground station range delay.

Otoshi, T. Y.↗

NASA NTRS1976

Influences of chemical and thermal environments on delay in a Ti-6Al-4V alloy

Experiments were conducted within the framework of linear fracture mechanics to study the effects of chemical and thermal environments on crack-growth retardation (delay) in mill-annealed Ti-6Al-4V alloy under elemental load spectra. Attention is focused on the influence of hold time at high load on delay in a 3.5 percent NaCl solution at room temperature. It is shown that delay is strongly affected by hold time at high load, where delay is longest if the high-load excursion occurs at high temperature and the subsequent fatigue is at room temperature, and shortest if the temperature profile is reversed. The results suggest that residual stresses ahead of the advancing crack play an important role in delay. The significance of combined load and environment (chemical and thermal) effects in terms of modeling and life prediction procedures is discussed.

Shih, T. T.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Simulator study of the effect of visual-motion time delays on pilot tracking performance with an audio side task

The effect of time delay was determined in the visual and motion cues in a flight simulator on pilot performance in tracking a target aircraft that was oscillating sinusoidally in altitude only. An audio side task was used to assure the subject was fully occupied at all times. The results indicate that, within the test grid employed, about the same acceptable time delay (250 msec) was obtained for a single aircraft (fighter type) by each of two subjects for both fixed-base and motion-base conditions. Acceptable time delay is defined as the largest amount of delay that can be inserted simultaneously into the visual and motion cues before performance degradation occurs. A statistical analysis of the data was made to establish this value of time delay. Audio side task provided quantitative data that documented the subject's work level.

Riley, D. R.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Microwave radiometer measurement of water vapor path delay: Data reduction techniques

Data reduction techniques are developed to compensate for water vapor path delay, a limiting error source in geodetic measurements made with very long baseline interferometry and in radio ranging to spacecraft. It is shown that water vapor path delay is proportional to a linear combination of saturation-corrected sky brightness temperatures, measured on and off the water vapor line. The effects of emission from liquid water droplets in clouds as well as most of the oxygen emission are removed by the off-line channel. Sky brightness temperatures are saturation-corrected or 'linearized' using estimates of effective sky temperatures made from surface temperature. Tipping curves are used to remove instrumental error. Coefficients are found by two methods: from a regression analysis of measured brightness temperatures versus radiosonde measured delay, and from a regression analysis of theoretical brightness temperatures versus radiosonde measured delay. In each case the coefficients are adjusted for differing climatic conditions by measurements of surface temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. Regression solutions are constrained to remove liquid water contributions and to give the correct slope for radiometer versus radiosonde path delay.

Claflin, E. S.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Microwave delay characteristics of Cassegrainian antennas

A technique is presented in which the time an RF signal is delayed in propagating through a Cassegrain antenna is determined. The technique utilizes the group delay time and the envelope delay time as found from the antenna transfer function. The calculations show that a focused antenna is basically a nondispersive device whose delay time may be found from an optics formula. Small subreflector displacements result in significant delay changes requiring calibrations for many applications.

Cha, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Time delays in flight simulator visual displays

It is pointed out that the effects of delays of less than 100 msec in visual displays on pilot dynamic response and system performance are of particular interest at this time because improvements in the latest computer-generated imagery (CGI) systems are expected to reduce CGI displays delays to this range. Attention is given to data which quantify the effects of display delays in the range of 0-100 msec on system stability and performance, and pilot dynamic response for a particular choice of aircraft dynamics, display, controller, and task. The conventional control system design methods are reviewed, the pilot response data presented, and data for long delays, all suggest lead filter compensation of display delay. Pilot-aircraft system crossover frequency information guides compensation filter specification.

Crane, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Effects of Transport Delays of Manual Control System Performance

Throughput or transport delays in manual control systems can cause degraded performance and lead to potentially unstable operation. With the expanding use of digital processors, throughput delays can occur in manual control systems in a variety of ways such as in digital flight control systems in real aircraft, and in equation of motion computers and computer generated images in simulators. Research has shown the degrading effect of throughput delays on subjective opinion and system performance and dynamic response. A generic manual control system model is used to provide a relatively simple analysis of and explanation for the effects of various types of delays. The consequence of throughput delays of some simple system architectures is also discussed.

Allen, R. W.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Delay line anodes for microchannel-plate spectrometers

A photon-counting readout system for microchannel-plate spectrometers is described that uses a delay line and timing circuit for the wavelength coordinate and a wedge-wedge charge division system for the orthogonal spatial coordinate. A novel zigzag layout allows these two anode patterns to coexist on a common planar substrate and share the charge from each photoevent, thereby simultaneously localizing the photon in each of its two dimensions. Unlike wedge-and-strip or resistive anode encoders, the delay line offers a spatial resolution that is relatively independent of the format length. Unlike discrete anode systems, the delay line readout system's complexity is also independent of the field of view size. These facts make the delay line readout system advantageous in large format detectors. A testbed detector having a delay line propagation speed of 2.2 mm/ns and a time resolution of 33 ps FWHM has been assembled. Ultraviolet testing shows a Gaussian event distribution having a 70-micron FWHM width; the readout system blur contribution is less than 50-micron FWHM.

Lampton, M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Effects of computing time delay on real-time control systems

The reliability of a real-time digital control system depends not only on the reliability of the hardware and software used, but also on the speed in executing control algorithms. The latter is due to the negative effects of computing time delay on control system performance. For a given sampling interval, the effects of computing time delay are classified into the delay problem and the loss problem. Analysis of these two problems is presented as a means of evaluating real-time control systems. As an example, both the self-tuning predicted (STP) control and Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control are applied to the problem of tracking robot trajectories, and their respective effects of computing time delay on control performance are comparatively evaluated. For this example, the STP (PID) controller is shown to outperform the PID (STP) controller in coping with the delay (loss) problem.

Shin, Kang G.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Effect of wet tropospheric path delays on estimation of geodetic baselines in the Gulf of California using the Global Positioning System

Surface Meteorological (SM) and Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) measurements are used to provide an independent means of calibrating the GPS signal for the wet tropospheric path delay in a study of geodetic baseline measurements in the Gulf of California using GPS in which high tropospheric water vapor content yielded wet path delays in excess of 20 cm at zenith. Residual wet delays at zenith are estimated as constants and as first-order exponentially correlated stochastic processes. Calibration with WVR data is found to yield the best repeatabilities, with improved results possible if combined carrier phase and pseudorange data are used. Although SM measurements can introduce significant errors in baseline solutions if used with a simple atmospheric model and estimation of residual zenith delays as constants, SM calibration and stochastic estimation for residual zenith wet delays may be adequate for precise estimation of GPS baselines. For dry locations, WVRs may not be required to accurately model tropospheric effects on GPS baselines.

Tralli, David M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Stability analysis of large space structure control systems with delayed input

Large space structural systems, due to their inherent flexibility and low mass to area ratio, are represented by large dimensional mathematical models. For implementation of the control laws for such systems a finite amount of time is required to evaluate the control signals; and this time delay may cause instability in the closed loop control system that was previously designed without taking the input delay into consideration. The stability analysis of a simple harmonic oscillator representing the equation of a single mode as a function of delay time is treated analytically and verified numerically. The effect of inherent damping on the delay is also analyzed. The control problem with delayed input is also formulated in the discrete time domain.

Reddy, A. S. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Stability analysis of large space structure control systems with delayed input

Large space structural systems, due to their inherent flexibility and low mass to area ratio, are represented by large dimensional mathematical models. For implementation of the control laws for such systems a finite amount of time is required to evaluate the control signals; and this time delay may cause instability in the closed loop control system that was previously designed without taking the input delay into consideration. The stability analysis of a simple harmonic oscillator representing the equation of a single mode as a function of delay time is analyzed analytically and verified numerically. The effect of inherent damping on the delay is also analyzed. The control problem with delayed input is also formulated in the discrete time domain.

Reddy, A. S. S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Precise estimation of tropospheric path delays with GPS techniques

Tropospheric path delays are a major source of error in deep space tracking. However, the tropospheric-induced delay at tracking sites can be calibrated using measurements of Global Positioning System (GPS) satellites. A series of experiments has demonstrated the high sensitivity of GPS to tropospheric delays. A variety of tests and comparisons indicates that current accuracy of the GPS zenith tropospheric delay estimates is better than 1-cm root-mean-square over many hours, sampled continuously at intervals of six minutes. These results are consistent with expectations from covariance analyses. The covariance analyses also indicate that by the mid-1990s, when the GPS constellation is complete and the Deep Space Network is equipped with advanced GPS receivers, zenith tropospheric delay accuracy with GPS will improve further to 0.5 cm or better.

Lichten, S. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Performance constraints and compensation for teleoperation with delay

A classical control perspective is used to characterize performance constraints and evaluate compensation techniques for teleoperation with delay. Use of control concepts such as open and closed loop performance, stability, and bandwidth yield insight to the delay problem. Teleoperator performance constraints are viewed as an open loop time delay lag and as a delay-induced closed loop bandwidth constraint. These constraints are illustrated with a simple analytical tracking example which is corroborated by a real time, 'man-in-the-loop' tracking experiment. The experiment also provides insight to those controller characteristics which are unique to a human operator. Predictive displays and feedforward commands are shown to provide open loop compensation for delay lag. Low pass filtering of telemetry or feedback signals is interpreted as closed loop compensation used to maintain a sufficiently low bandwidth for stability. A new closed loop compensation approach is proposed that uses a reactive (or force feedback) hand controller to restrict system bandwidth by impeding operator inputs.

Mclaughlin, J. S.↗