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Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using SkyWest Revenue Flights - Part II

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. This paper quantifies the trajectory prediction accuracy for small jet revenue flight descents based on SkyWest Canadair Regional Jet 200, 700, and 900 aircraft arrivals to Denver in the fall of 2010. Post flight test data analysis and SkyWest pilot interviews uncovered unexpected variation between flight crews due to different interpretations of (1) which fixed flight path angle (FPA) to fly based on the flight trial procedure and (2) how to fly the descent to achieve the target FPA. Pilot reports were used to select a subset of flights where pilots indicated an FPA according to the flight trial procedure to remove the unexpected variation due to (1) to focus on (2). Results for the subset for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 30 to 130 nmi downstream, indicate that aircraft arrived to the meter fix six seconds early with about a twelve second standard deviation. Large FPA errors up to one degree relative to the EDA flight trial procedure were detected after the flight trial as a characteristic of the unexpected variation. It is recommended that quantitative validation be performed during future flight trials so that experimental procedures can be adjusted if unexpected results are detected.

Field Test Results↗

Lightweight Multifunctional Planetary Probe for Extreme Environment Exploration and Locomotion

The demand to explore new worlds requires the development of advanced technologies that enable landed science on uncertain terrains or in hard to reach locations. As a result, contemporary Entry, Descent, Landing, (EDL) and additional locomotion (EDLL) profiles are becoming increasingly more complex, with the introduction of lifting/guided entries, hazard avoidance on descent, and a plethora of landing techniques including airbags and the skycrane maneuver. The inclusion of each of these subsystems into a mission profile is associated with a substantial mass penalty. This report explores the new all-in-one entry vehicle concept, TANDEM, a new combined EDLL concept, and compares it to the current state of the art EDL systems. The explored system is lightweight and collapsible and provides the capacity for lifting/guided entry, guided descent, hazard avoidance, omnidirectional impact protection and surface locomotion without the aid of any additional subsystems. This Phase I study explored: 1. The capabilities and feasibility of the TANDEM concept as an EDLL vehicle. 2. Extensive impact analysis to ensure mission success in unfavorable landing conditions, and safe landing in Tessera regions. 3. Development of a detailed design for a conceptual mission to Venus. As a result of our work it was shown that: 1. TANDEM provides additional benefits over the Adaptive, Deployable Entry Placement Technology (ADEPT) including guided descent and surface locomotion, while reducing the mass by 38% compared to the ADEPT-VITaL mission. 2. Demonstrated that the design of tensegrity structures, and TANDEM specifically, grows linearly with an increase in velocity, which was previously unknown. 3. Investigation of surface impact revealed a promising results that suggest a properly configured TANDEM vehicle can safely land and preform science in the Tessera regions, which was previously labeled by the Decadal Survey as, largely inaccessible despite its high scientific interest. This work has already resulted in a NASA TM and will be submitted to the Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets.

landing techniques↗

Piloted simulation of a ground-based time-control concept for air traffic control

A concept for aiding air traffic controllers in efficiently spacing traffic and meeting scheduled arrival times at a metering fix was developed and tested in a real time simulation. The automation aid, referred to as the ground based 4-D descent advisor (DA), is based on accurate models of aircraft performance and weather conditions. The DA generates suggested clearances, including both top-of-descent-point and speed-profile data, for one or more aircraft in order to achieve specific time or distance separation objectives. The DA algorithm is used by the air traffic controller to resolve conflicts and issue advisories to arrival aircraft. A joint simulation was conducted using a piloted simulator and an advanced concept air traffic control simulation to study the acceptability and accuracy of the DA automation aid from both the pilot's and the air traffic controller's perspectives. The results of the piloted simulation are examined. In the piloted simulation, airline crews executed controller issued descent advisories along standard curved path arrival routes, and were able to achieve an arrival time precision of + or - 20 sec at the metering fix. An analysis of errors generated in turns resulted in further enhancements of the algorithm to improve the predictive accuracy. Evaluations by pilots indicate general support for the concept and provide specific recommendations for improvement.

Davis, Thomas J.↗

Tracer-Based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999-2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for November 26, 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude, extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences, we inferred descent prior to November 26: 397+/-15 K (1sigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and 28+/-13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from November 26 through March 12, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between November 26 and January 27: 0.82+/-0.20 K/day averaged over 50-250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (February 26-March 12), the average rate had decreased to 0.10+/-0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (November 26-March 5) descent rate varied from 0.75+/-0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40+/-0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999-2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.↗

Tracer-based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999/2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999/2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for 26 November 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences we inferred descent prior to 26 November: as much as 397 plus or minus 15 K (lsigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and falling to 28 plus or minus 13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from 26 November through 12 March, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between 26 November and 27 January: 0.82 plus or minus 0.20 K/day averaged over 50- 250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (26 February to 12 March), the average rate had decreased to 0.10 plus or minus 0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (26 November to 5 March) descent rate varied from 0.75 plus or minus 0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40 plus or minus 0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999/2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffrey B.↗

A comparison of ozone measurements

A mass spectrometer beam experiment and a UV absorption instrument (modified Dasibi instrument) have simultaneously measured ozone mixing ratios in the stratosphere (20-40 km). Both experiments were independently calibrated using absolute standards. The ozone profiles obtained during three balloon descents are in excellent agreement; fine structures are resolved by both experiments. The RMS uncertainty in ozone mixing ratios is about 3% for either instrument.

Mauersberger, K.↗

Measurements of concentrations of chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs) carbon dioxide and carbon isotope ratio in stratospheric and tropospheric air by grab-sampling systems

Measurements of concentrations of chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs), carbon dioxide and carbon isotope ratio in stratospheric and tropospheric air by grab-sampling systems are reported. The balloon-borne grab-sampling system has been launched from Sanriku Balloon Center three times since 1981. It consists of: (1) six sampling cylinders, (2) eight motor driven values, (3) control and monitor circuits, and (4) pressurized housing. Particular consideration is paid to the problem of contamination. Strict requirements are placed on the choice of materials and components, construction methods, cleaning techniques, vacuum integrity, and sampling procedures. An aluminum pressurized housing and a 4-m long inlet line are employed to prevent the sampling air from contamination by outgassing of sampling and control devices. The sampling is performed during the descent of the system. Vertical profiles of mixing ratios of CF2Cl2, CFCl3 and CH4 are given. Mixing ratios of CF2Cl2 and CFCl3 in the stratosphere do not show the discernible effect of the increase of those in the ground level background, and decrease with altitude. Decreasing rate of CFCl3 is larger than that of CF2Cl2. CH4 mixing ratio, on the other hand, shows diffusive equilibrium, as the photodissociation cross section of CH4 is small and concentrations of OH radical and 0(sup I D) are low.

Itoh, T.↗

Air-Traffic Controllers Evaluate The Descent Advisor

Report describes study of Descent Advisor algorithm: software automation aid intended to assist air-traffic controllers in spacing traffic and meeting specified times or arrival. Based partly on mathematical models of weather conditions and performances of aircraft, it generates suggested clearances, including top-of-descent points and speed-profile data to attain objectives. Study focused on operational characteristics with specific attention to how it can be used for prediction, spacing, and metering.

Tobias, Leonard↗

Development of a Mars Airplane Entry, Descent, and Flight Trajectory

An entry, descent, and flight (EDF) trajectory profile for a Mars airplane mission is defined as consisting of the following elements: ballistic entry of an aeroshell; supersonic deployment of a decelerator parachute; subsonic release of a heat shield; release, unfolding, and orientation of an airplane to flight attitude; and execution of a pull up maneuver to achieve trimmed, horizontal flight. Using the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) a trajectory optimization problem was formulated. Model data representative of a specific Mars airplane configuration, current models of the Mars surface topography and atmosphere, and current estimates of the interplanetary trajectory, were incorporated into the analysis. The goal is to develop an EDF trajectory to maximize the surface-relative altitude of the airplane at the end of a pull up maneuver, while subject to the mission design constraints. The trajectory performance was evaluated for three potential mission sites and was found to be site-sensitive. The trajectory performance, examined for sensitivity to a number of design and constraint variables, was found to be most sensitive to airplane mass, aerodynamic performance characteristics, and the pull up Mach constraint. Based on the results of this sensitivity study, an airplane-drag optimized trajectory was developed that showed a significant performance improvement.

Murray, James E.↗

Two Dimensional Wake Vortex Simulations in the Atmosphere: Preliminary Sensitivity Studies

A numerical large-eddy simulation model is currently being used to quantify aircraft wake vortex behavior with meteorological observables. The model, having a meteorological framework, permits the interaction of wake vortices with environments characterized by crosswind shear, stratification, and humidity. The addition of grid-scale turbulence as an initial condition appeared to have little consequence. Results show that conventional nondimensionalizations work very well for vortex pairs embedded in stably stratified flows. However, this result is based on simple environments with constant Brunt-Vaisala frequency. Results presented here also show that crosswind profiles exert important and complex interactions on the trajectories of wake vortices. Nonlinear crosswind profiles tended to arrest the descent of wake vortex pairs. The member of the vortex pair with vorticity of same sign as the vertical change in the ambient along-track vorticity may be deflected upwards.

Proctor, F. H.↗

The Contributions of Chemistry and Transport to Low Arctic Ozone in March 2011 Derived from Aura MLS Observations

Stratospheric and total columns of Arctic O3 (63-90 N) in late March 2011 averaged 320 and 349 DU, respectively. These values are 74 DU lower than averages for the previous 6 years. We use Aura MLS O3 observations to quantify the roles of chemistry and transport and find there are two major reasons for low O3 in March 2011: heterogeneous chemical loss and a late final warming that delayed the resupply of O3 until April. Daily vortex-averaged partial columns in the lowermost stratosphere (p greater than 133 hPa) and middle stratosphere (p less than 29 hPa) are unaffected by local heterogeneous chemistry and show a near total lack of transport into the vortex between late January and late March, contributing to the observed low column. The lower stratospheric (LS) column (133-29 hPa) is affected by both heterogeneous chemistry and transport. Low interannual variability of Aura MLS 0 3 columns and temperature inside the Arctic vortex (2004-2011) shows that the transport contribution to vortex O3 in fall and early winter is nearly the same each year. The descent of MLS N2O vortex profiles in 2011 provides an estimate of O3 transported into the LS column during late winter. By quantifying the role of transport we determine that PSC-driven chemical loss causes 80 (plus or minus 10) DU of vortex-averaged O3 loss by late March 2011. Without heterogeneous chemical loss, March 2011 vortex O3 would have been ~40 DU lower than normal due to the late final warming and resupply of O3 which did not occur until April.

Strahan, S. E.↗

Research Of Airborne Precision Spacing to Improve Airport Arrival Operations

In September 2004, the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) and the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to mutually develop, modify, test, and evaluate systems, procedures, facilities, and devices to meet the need for safe and efficient air navigation and air traffic control in the future. In the United States and Europe, these efforts are defined within the architectures of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Program and Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) Program respectively. Both programs have identified Airborne Spacing as a critical component, with Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) as a key enabler. Increased interest in reducing airport community noise and the escalating cost of aviation fuel has led to the use of Continuous Descent Arrival (CDA) procedures to reduce noise, emissions, and fuel usage compared to current procedures. To provide these operational enhancements, arrival flight paths into terminal areas are planned around continuous vertical descents that are closer to an optimum trajectory than those in use today. The profiles are designed to be near-idle descents from cruise altitude to the Final Approach Fix (FAF) and are typically without any level segments. By staying higher and faster than conventional arrivals, CDAs also save flight time for the aircraft operator. The drawback is that the variation of optimized trajectories for different types and weights of aircraft requires the Air Traffic Controller to provide more airspace around an aircraft on a CDA than on a conventional arrival procedure. This additional space decreases the throughput rate of the destination airport. Airborne self-spacing concepts have been developed to increase the throughput at high-demand airports by managing the inter-arrival spacing to be more precise and consistent using on-board guidance. It has been proposed that the additional space needed around an aircraft performing a CDA could be reduced or eliminated when using airborne spacing techniques.

Barmore, Bryan E.↗

On the Origin of Polar Vortex Air

The existence of the multi-year HALOE CH4 data set, together with some comparisons of forward with back trajectory calculations which we have carried out, has motivated us to reexamine the question of polar vortex descent. Three-dimensional diabatic trajectory calculations have been carried out for the seven month fall to spring period in both the northern hemisphere (NH) and southern hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere for the years 1992-1999. These computations are compared to fixed descent computations where the parcels were fixed at their latitude-longitude locations and allowed to descend without circulating. The forward trajectory computed descent is always less than the fixed descent due to horizontal parcel motions and variations in heating rates with latitude and longitude. Although the forward calculations estimate the maximum amount of descent that can occur, they do not necessarily indicate the actual origin of springtime vortex air. This is because more equator-ward air can be entrained within the vortex during its formation. To examine the origin of the springtime vortex air, the trajectory model was run backward for seven months from spring to fall. The back trajectories show a complex distribution of parcels in which one population originates in the upper stratosphere and mesosphere and experiences considerable descent in the polar regions, while the remaining parcels originate at lower altitudes of the middle and lower stratosphere and are mixed into the polar regions during vortex formation without experiencing as much vertical transport. The amount of descent experienced by the first population shows little variability from year to year, while the computed descent and mixing of the remaining parcels show considerable interannual variability due to the varying polar meteorology. Because of this complex parcel distribution it is not meaningful to speak of a net amount of descent experienced over the entire winter period. Since the back trajectories indicate that much of the air can come from lower altitudes than would be implied by the forward calculations, using a comparison between pre-winter and post-winter tracer profiles to estimate the amount of descent over this period will give erroneous descent amounts. In order to evaluate the computed descent, spring methane amounts were computed by mapping HALOE fall observations onto the final latitude-altitude locations of the back trajectories. These locations indicate the origin of the spring vortex air. The agreement between the computed means and the spring HALOE means is generally within 0.1-0.2 ppmv in the NH and 0.1-0.4 ppmv in the SH.

Rosenfield, J. E.↗

Enabling Mars Radio Occultation by Smallsats

We introduce a Mars Radio Occultation (RO) mission concept leveraging on small satellite (smallsat) technologies that will enable measurements that address both Mars science and exploration priorities. The RO technique measures the Doppler shift of radio signals of a spacecraft occulting behind a planet’s limb that contains information about the planet’s atmospheric density, temperature, and pressure. We design a smallsat constellation and simulate “crosslink” RO observations between the smallsats to determine the expected accuracy and spatiotemporal coverage of Mars RO atmospheric profiles. Such measurements are key to spacecraft Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) and Ascent from the Surface (AST) of Mars. Today, there are limited number of Mars atmospheric profiles with high vertical resolution, especially measurements near the surface that are difficult to obtain from satellite-based passive instruments due to atmospheric absorption. We find that crosslink ROs between a constellation of six smallsats provide global and diurnal cycle coverage with dozens of occultations per day, providing temperature information from near-surface up to ~45 km with altitude-dependent accuracy that ranges between <0.5 K at lower altitude to <5 K in the middle-to-upper atmosphere. Ionospheric ROs reveal an expected electron density of ~5 – 10% at the peak ionospheric height between 100 and 140 km. We conclude that observations obtained from a smallsat constellation can augment existing observing platforms by reducing observational gaps and yield high resolution measurements required for safe spacecraft operations during EDL and AST.

Martinez, German↗

Autonomous precision landing using terrain-following navigation

Terrain-following navigation studies that have been done over the past two years in the navigation system section at JPL are described. A descent to Mars scenario based on Mars Rover and Sample Return mission profiles is described, and navigation and image processing issues pertaining to descent phases where landmark picture can be obtained are examined. A covariance analysis is performed to verify that landmark measurements from a terrain-following navigation system can satisfy precision landing requirements. Image processing problems involving known landmarks in actual pictures are considered. Mission design alternatives that can alleviate some of these problems are suggested.

Vaughan, R. M.↗

Airborne Aerosol Closure Studies During PRIDE

The Puerto Rico Dust Experiment (PRIDE) was conducted during June/July of 2000 to study the properties of Saharan dust aerosols transported across the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Islands. During PRIDE, the NASA Ames Research Center six-channel (380 - 1020 nm) airborne autotracking sunphotometer (AATS-6) was operated aboard a Piper Navajo airplane alongside a suite of in situ aerosol instruments. The in situ aerosol instrumentation relevant to this paper included a Forward Scattering Spectrometer Probe (FSSP-100) and a Passive Cavity Aerosol Spectrometer Probe (PCASP), covering the radius range of approx. 0.05 to 10 microns. The simultaneous and collocated measurement of multi-spectral aerosol optical depth and in situ particle size distribution data permits a variety of closure studies. For example, vertical profiles of aerosol optical depth obtained during local aircraft ascents and descents can be differentiated with respect to altitude and compared to extinction profiles calculated using the in situ particle size distribution data (and reasonable estimates of the aerosol index of refraction). Additionally, aerosol extinction (optical depth) spectra can be inverted to retrieve estimates of the particle size distributions, which can be compared directly to the in situ size distributions. In this paper we will report on such closure studies using data from a select number of vertical profiles at Cabras Island, Puerto Rico, including measurements in distinct Saharan Dust Layers. Preliminary results show good agreement to within 30% between mid-visible aerosol extinction derived from the AATS-6 optical depth profiles and extinction profiles forward calculated using 60s-average in situ particle size distributions and standard Saharan dust aerosol refractive indices published in the literature. In agreement with tendencies observed in previous studies, our initial results show an underestimate of aerosol extinction calculated based on the in situ size distributions relative to the extinction obtained from the sunphotometer measurements. However, a more extensive analysis of all available AATS-6 and in situ size distribution data is necessary to ascertain whether the preliminary results regarding the degree of extinction closure is representative of the entire range of dust conditions encountered in PRIDE. Finally, we will compare the spectral extinction measurements obtained in PRIDE to similar data obtained in Saharan dust layers encountered above the Canary Islands during ACE-2 (Aerosol Characterization Experiment) in July 1997. Thus, the evolution of Saharan dust spectral properties during its transport across the Atlantic can be investigated, provided the dust origin and microphysical properties are found to be comparable.

Redemann, Jens↗

Communications Blackout Predictions for Atmospheric Entry of Mars Science Laboratory

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) is expected to be a long-range, long-duration science laboratory rover on the Martian surface. MSL will provide a significant milestone that paves the way for future landed missions to Mars. NASA is studying options to launch MSL as early as 2009. There are three elements to the spacecraft; carrier (cruise stage), entry vehicle, and rover. The rover will have a UHF proximity link as the primary path for EDL communications and may have an X-band direct-to-Earth link as a back-up. Given the importance of collecting critical event telemetry data during atmospheric entry, it is important to understand the ability of a signal link to be maintained, especially during the period near peak convective heating. The received telemetry during entry (or played back later) will allow for the performance of the Entry-Descent-Landing technologies to be assessed. These technologies include guided entry for precision landing, a new sky-crane landing system and powered descent. MSL will undergo an entry profile that may result in a potential communications blackout caused by ionized particles for short periods near peak heating. The vehicle will use UHF and possibly X-band during the entry phase. The purpose of this rep0rt is to quantify or bound the likelihood of any such blackout at UHF frequencies (401 MHz) and X-band frequencies (8.4 GHz). Two entry trajectory scenarios were evaluated: a stressful entry trajectory to quantify an upper-bound for any possible blackout period, and a nominal trajectory to quantify likelihood of blackout for such cases.

communications↗

Improved passive microwave sounding of the atmosphere

The effort this year focused primarily on 118-GHz transmittance experiments. The data analyzed here was collected with the Microwave Temperature Sounder (MTS) radiometer package during the CAMEX deployment of 1993 with the aim of validating current models of atmospheric microwave absorption in the O2 bands near 54 and 118 GHz. Particular attention has been paid to data collected during four flights when the MTS scanned zenith while profiles of downwelling radiances were collected through ascents and descents. These radiances, in conjunction with radiosonde temperature data, permit the retrieval of band-averaged absorption profiles for each channel. The Millimeter-wave Propagation Model (MPM92) provides theoretical expressions for the absorption of microwaves by oxygen and water vapor and accounts for the interference of pressure-broadened spectral lines'. This model is a good fit to laboratory measurements at temperatures ranging from 279-327 K, but it has been suggested that extrapolation to the conditions of the atmospheric tropopause may result in underestimation of absorption by as much as 15 percent. Preliminary results of the analysis of MTS data appear to be in general agreement with the predictions of the MPM model to within the accuracy of the measurements, which through the coldest parts of the atmosphere ranges from less than plus or minus 5 percent in the most opaque channels to greater than plus or minus 10 percent in the most transparent channels. At those altitudes where each channel is most sensitive to changes in absorption, there is some indication that the modeled absorption may be biased low relative to the observations. Accurate instrument calibration provided challenges, particularly when observed radiances were as much as 260 K below the temperatures of the cold calibration load.

Staelin, D. H.↗