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107 records · Page 6

Numerical Modeling & Size Optimization of Thermal Energy Storage for Iron & Steel Production

Iron and steel production are responsible for 90 million MtCO2 per year in the United States. Hydrogen direct reduction of iron (H2DRI) is a promising pathway for a more sustainable iron production than commercially deployed technologies which rely on natural gas. The H2DRI process requires hydrogen at a temperature of up to 950 degrees C fed into a reduction furnace to produce pellets or briquettes that are used in the downstream iron and steelmaking process. In this work, we propose to use an electrical thermal energy storage (ETES) system, that can use renewable electricity to store high-temperature heat and dispatch it upon demand. Such a system can buffer the H2DRI plant from the variability of electricity prices by charging during curtailment and running the plant from storage during times of peak electricity price. We have developed heat transfer models for two different ETES systems that can be used to heat up hydrogen to the required temperatures: a particle-based ETES and a firebrick ETES. These models are used to evaluate the performance of such a system and support the sizing and preliminary cost estimation. The preliminary results using both models show that designing ETES systems for an industrial-scale H2DRI furnace is feasible. The firebrick ETES system has limited operational duration, which might limit the price buffering effect unless significantly oversized. The particle ETES system heat exchanger has industry-feasible dimensions, but its storage capacity would be decided upon the number of particle storage silos.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

The value of hydropower flexibility for electricity system decarbonization

Hydropower is an abundant, dispatchable, clean energy resource that will play an important role in supporting the clean energy transition. In particular, dispatchable hydropower can provide the operational flexibility that will be required in future systems with high variable renewable energy penetrations. However, the theoretical operational flexibility of hydropower can be restricted in practice by various non-power constraints. In this paper, we quantify how increasing the operational flexibility of dispatchable hydropower resources with reservoirs impacts least-cost generation portfolios and supports power system decarbonization. Specifically, we conduct a capacity expansion analysis of a two-zone system: a hydro-dominated region and a neighboring region with aggressive decarbonization targets that are represented by the United States Pacific Northwest and California respectively. We then introduce a quantifiable index for characterizing the operational flexibility of reservoir hydropower and assess how changes in this metric impact the system-optimal generation portfolio. We find that increasing hydropower flexibility leads to more investment in wind generation, less investment in natural gas generation, lower system costs, and lower system emissions. We further demonstrate a substitution effect between the grid services provided by flexible hydropower operation, increased transmission capacity on a congested line, and energy storage resources. Finally, we show that increasing the operational flexibility of hydropower increases the effective load carrying capability of both hydropower and wind resources. This research supports a more nuanced understanding of how hydropower can support electricity system decarbonization and may motivate reassessing the cost-benefit tradeoffs of non-power constraints that restrict operational flexibility.

Capacity expansion modeling

Current Safety Nets Within the U.S. National Airspace System

There are over 70,000 flights managed per day in the National Airspace System, with approximately 7,000 aircraft in the air over the United States at any given time. Operators of each of these flights would prefer to fly a user-defined “4D” trajectory (4DT), which includes arrival and departure times; preferred gates and runways at the airport; efficient, wind-optimal routes for departure, cruise and arrival phase of flight; and fuel efficient altitude profiles. To demonstrate the magnitude of this achievement a single flight from Los Angeles to Baltimore, accesses over 35 shared or “constrained” resources that are managed by roughly 30 air traffic controllers (at towers, approach control and en route sectors); along with traffic managers at 12 facilities, using over 22 different, independent automation system (including TBFM, ERAM, STARS, ASDE-X, FSM, TSD, GPWS, TCAS, etc.). In addition, dispatchers, ramp controllers and others utilize even more systems to manage each flight’s access to operator-managed resources. Flying an ideal 4DT requires successful coordination of all flight constraints among all flights, facilities, operators, pilots and controllers. Additionally, when conditions in the NAS change, the trajectories of one or more aircraft may need to be revised to avoid loss of flight efficiency, predictability, separation or system throughput. The Aviation Safety Network has released the 2016 airliner accident statistics showing a very low total of 19 fatal airliner accidents, resulting in 325 fatalities1. Despite several high profile accidents, the year 2016 turned out to be a very safe year for commercial aviation, Aviation Safety Network data show. Over the year 2016 the Aviation Safety Network recorded a total of 19 fatal airliner accidents [1], resulting in 325 fatalities. This makes 2016 the second safest year ever, both by number of fatal accidents as well as in terms of fatalities. In 2015 ASN recorded 16 accidents while in 2013 a total of 265 lives were lost. How can we keep it that way and not upset the apple cart by premature insertion of innovative technologies, functions, and procedures? In aviation, safety nets function as the last system defense against incidents and accidents. Current ground-based and airborne safety nets are well established and development to make them more efficient and reliable continues. Additionally, future air traffic control safety nets may emerge from new operational concepts.

Smith, Brian E.

Real-Time Multiregional Market-to-Market Congestion Management Through Exchange of Relief Cost Curve

This paper introduces a novel method for multiregional market-to-market (M2M) coordinated congestion management. It identifies shortcomings in existing M2M approaches, where Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) exchange shadow prices and relief requests to optimize congestion relief allocations across interconnected regions. Two methods are proposed to enhance flow and price convergence. The first method proposes that both Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) use state-estimator flows directly to determine relief requirements, eliminating delays and potential oscillations caused by using market flows calculated from the prior period under existing M2M approach. The second method involves exchanging transmission relief cost curves, enabling each RTOs to integrate other RTOs' relief costs curve into its real-time security-constrained economic dispatch (SCED). This method can effectively extend the coordination to multiple transmission lines and across more than two RTOs. The alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is also applied to the M2M coordination problem and compared with the proposed methods. Case studies on small and large-scale systems demonstrate the effectiveness of these approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

Traffic Aware Planner for Cockpit-Based Trajectory Optimization

The Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software application is a cockpit-based advisory tool designed to be hosted on an Electronic Flight Bag and to enable and test the NASA concept of Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests (TASAR). The TASAR concept provides pilots with optimized route changes (including altitude) that reduce fuel burn and/or flight time, avoid interactions with known traffic, weather and restricted airspace, and may be used by the pilots to request a route and/or altitude change from Air Traffic Control. Developed using an iterative process, TAP's latest improvements include human-machine interface design upgrades and added functionality based on the results of human-in-the-loop simulation experiments and flight trials. Architectural improvements have been implemented to prepare the system for operational-use trials with partner commercial airlines. Future iterations will enhance coordination with airline dispatch and add functionality to improve the acceptability of TAP-generated route-change requests to pilots, dispatchers, and air traffic controllers.

Woods, Sharon E.

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Evaluating the Impact of Managed EV Charging for Reliable Operation of Bulk Power Systems with High Non-Dispatchable Generation

The growth of electric vehicles (EVs) and variable-generation (VG) sources introduces new challenges for power-system operations. This study introduces a modeling framework and evaluates five EV charging strategies under projected 2040 grid conditions in the Evergy service territory with high non-dispatchable generation. Using realistic EV behavior and generation models, their impacts on system peak demand, ramp rate, and reserve capacity are evaluated. Results show that only the peak-avoidance strategy effectively reduces system peak demand, while decentralized strategies-particularly cost based dynamic charging-can exacerbate peaks due to synchronized user behavior. However, ramp-rate minimization strategy significantly reduce the stress on dispatchable generation achieving the lowest maximum absolute ramp rate (MARR) (56.81 MW) and lowest reserve requirement (2.39 GW). In contrast, unmanaged and TOU random strategies increase the stress on dispatchable generation sources with increased MARR and reserve requirements. These findings highlight the importance of coordinated, system-aware managed charging strategies to ensure reliable and affordable grid operation in the presence of EVs and VG sources.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY

iDDS: intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling for workflow orchestration

The intelligent distributed dispatch and scheduling (iDDS) service is a versatile workflow orchestration system designed for large-scale, distributed scientific computing. iDDS extends traditional workload and data management by integrating data-aware execution, conditional logic, and programmable workflows, enabling automation of complex and dynamic processing pipelines. Originally developed for the ATLAS experiment at the large hadron collider, iDDS has evolved into an experiment-agnostic platform that supports both template-driven workflows and a Function-as-a-Task model for Python-based orchestration. This paper presents the architecture and core components of iDDS, highlighting its scalability, modular message-driven design, and integration with systems such as PanDA and Rucio. We demonstrate its versatility through real-world use cases: fine-grained tape resource optimization for ATLAS, orchestration of large Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) workflows for the Rubin Observatory, distributed hyperparameter optimization for machine learning applications, active learning for physics analyses, and AI-assisted detector design at the electron–ion collider. By unifying workload scheduling, data movement, and adaptive decision-making, iDDS reduces operational overhead and enables reproducible, high-throughput workflows across heterogeneous infrastructures. We conclude with current challenges and future directions, including interactive, cloud-native, and serverless workflow support.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience: A Case Study

As renewable energy technologies are increasingly adopted, they pose an opportunity to improve the sustainability and resilience of distributed grids, especially when their design and operation is coordinated as a hybrid power plant. When included in hybrid power plants, distributed wind turbines in particular have the potential to enhance the resilience of distributed grids in areas with good wind resource, due to their ability to provide more consistent generation and ancillary services as compared to photo-voltaic (PV) solar panels. Despite this benefit, U.S. distributed wind adoption is lower than other comparable renewable energy technologies. In this study, we seek to demonstrate how hybrid power plants that include distributed wind turbines can contribute to distribution grid resilience by meeting loads (especially critical loads) more consistently, increasing reserve capacity, and providing value to customers during outages. To demonstrate these contributions, we integrate three separate frameworks and apply them to a case study in a rural electric cooperative in Iowa. Through this case study, we simulate and compare hybrid power plant design and operation during two hazard events: a tornado that causes a 48-hour distribution outage and a winter weather event that causes a 6-hour generation outage. The inclusion of a hybrid power plant that leverages 1) increased battery duration and 2) advanced forecasting and dispatch strategies that reserve capacity leading up to a hazard event best reduce lost loads as well as diesel consumption that would otherwise be used to meet those loads during short- and long-duration hazard events. Depending on the hybrid power plant capacity and operation, we find that the outage mitigation value of a hybrid power plant (measured in value to customers to avoid an outage and avoided lost revenues for the utility) is significant in both hazard events; adding wind, solar, and battery assets to the existing system adds about $50-$100M in avoided lost load and at least $4-$8k in utility value in the tornado hazard event, and $570k-$2.2M in avoided lost load and at least $220-$650 in utility value in the winter hazard scenario. In both the tornado and winter hazard scenarios, optimizing the operation of the hybrid system for resilience can lend similar value as increasing battery duration by 5 MWh for the lower capacity systems considered.

17 WIND ENERGY

Multi-parametric analysis for mixed integer linear programming: An application to transmission upgrade and congestion management

Upgrading the capacity of existing transmission lines is essential for meeting the growing energy demands, facilitating the integration of renewable energy, and ensuring the security of the transmission system. This study focuses on the selection of lines whose capacities and by how much should be expanded from the perspective of the Independent System Operators (ISOs) to minimize the total system cost. We employ advanced multi-parametric programming and an enhanced branch-and-bound algorithm to address complex mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems, considering multi-period time constraints and physical limitations of generators and transmission lines. To characterize the various decisions in transmission expansion, we model the increased capacity of existing lines as parameters within a specified range. This study first relaxes the binary variables to continuous variables and applies the Lagrange method and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to obtain optimal solutions and identify critical regions associated with active and inactive constraints. Moreover, we extend the traditional branch-and-bound (B&B) method by determining the problem’s upper and lower bounds at each node of the B&B decision tree, helping to manage computational challenges in large-scale MILP problems. Here, we compare the difference between the upper and lower bounds to obtain an approximate optimal solution within the decision-makers’ tolerable error range. In addition, the first derivative of the objective function on the parameters of each line is used to inform the selection of lines for easing congestion and maximizing social welfare. Finally, the capacity upgrades are selected by weighing the reductions in system costs against the expense of upgrading line capacities. The findings are supported by numerical simulations and provide transmission-line planners with decision-making guidance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers and air traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control imctions.This paper describes a conflict detection and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection and resolution method.

Chatterji, Gano B.

A Model for Hybrid Systems for Production Cost Modeling Studies Considering Ancillary Services

This paper introduces a model for simulating hybrid plants participating in energy and ancillary services for bulk power system studies. The model considers a hybrid plant comprised of a renewable energy source, a thermal power unit, a storage unit, fixed power loads, or any combination of these technologies. The model focuses on Production Cost Modeling (PCM) studies under the assumption of centralized dispatch. We present an example case study to illustrate the use of the model in a single-stage production cost model similar to those conducted by planning agencies. We explore the allocation of behind-the-meter ancillary services products and total energy participation to hybrid plant sub-assets and the resulting impacts on the system's ancillary service allocation. The model is implemented and simulated in a unit commitment problem in the RTS test system, which was modified to include a hybrid plant asset.

ancillary services

A Simple Two Aircraft Conflict Resolution Algorithm

Conflict detection and resolution methods are crucial for distributed air-ground traffic management in which the crew in, the cockpit, dispatchers in operation control centers sad and traffic controllers in the ground-based air traffic management facilities share information and participate in the traffic flow and traffic control functions. This paper describes a conflict detection, and a conflict resolution method. The conflict detection method predicts the minimum separation and the time-to-go to the closest point of approach by assuming that both the aircraft will continue to fly at their current speeds along their current headings. The conflict resolution method described here is motivated by the proportional navigation algorithm, which is often used for missile guidance during the terminal phase. It generates speed and heading commands to rotate the line-of-sight either clockwise or counter-clockwise for conflict resolution. Once the aircraft achieve a positive range-rate and no further conflict is predicted, the algorithm generates heading commands to turn back the aircraft to their nominal trajectories. The speed commands are set to the optimal pre-resolution speeds. Six numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the conflict detection, and the conflict resolution methods.

Chatterji, Gano B.

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps

In this project, we developed a techno-economic analysis (TEA) model that can be used to evaluate the viability of a proposed Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) design. This MATLAB-based model integrates distinct subsystem models for the reservoir, wells, power cycle, and solar field to capture their distinct characteristics. It applies this approach in simulating GeoTES storage and dispatch operations for durations ranging from hourly to seasonal. Using cases studies based on GeoTES designs provided by industry partners - Premier Resource Management (PRM) and EarthBridge Energy - we validated the TEA model estimations of system performance and costs (such as thermal and electrical power/energy inflow and outflow, capital costs, and levelized costs of energy and storage) for both concentrating solar thermal (CST) and Carnot Battery (CB) pairings with GeoTES (CST-GeoTES and CB-GeoTES). For the CST-GeoTES case, the model was validated against the proposed system designed by PRM. It showed good agreement with PRM's estimations when well and pump costs derived from PRM's estimations were used. When GETEM-based costs were used, there was a slight overprediction due to GETEM's project/site agnostic assumption of these costs. From a sensitivity analysis perspective, the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of the CST-GeoTES case was most sensitive to well flow rate and the charging temperature. An optimal design scenario resulted in an LCOE of 0.11 $\$$/kWhe. CST-GeoTES can also provide a source of heat to meet seasonal demands. With 12-hour and 24-hour levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of 0.018 $\$$/kWhth and 0.022 $\$$/kWhth, respectively, CST-GeoTES could be competitive in the California market with an average industrial price of natural gas in California between 0.041-0.047 $\$$/kWhth. The levelized cost of storage (LCOS) for CST-GeoTES depends on the energy storage duration. Although the LCOS is relatively higher for shorter durations (e.g., ~0.50 $\$$/kWhe for 1 hour of storage), it is an order of magnitude lower (0.06 $\$$/kWhe) for longer storage durations and competitive with lithium-ion batteries (beyond 12 hours of storage) and molten-salt thermal energy storage (beyond 32 hours). Energy. Three options were explored and applied to the EarthBridge case study: (1) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with both hot and cold storage; (2) A Carnot Battery design using R125 working fluid with only hot storage; (3) A Carnot Battery using a commercially available heat pump with carbon dioxide (CO2) working fluid and hot storage only. The CB-GeoTES with cold storage only had a slight (round-trip) efficiency advantage over the system without (43.4% vs. 42.8%). This is because the cold storage is limited by the freezing point of water, so the cold storage is not much colder than the environment. The system using commercially available technologies was the least efficient - partly because different cycles were used in the heat pump (CO2) and heat engine (binary cycle) which leads to some inefficiencies. Using the commercially available design, the levelized cost of energy (LCOS) from the model (0.10 $\$$/kWhe) was higher than that estimated by EarthBridge (0.068 $\$$/kWhe). This is because of the low round-trip (38.7%) efficiency of the commercially available design. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the model is most sensitive to electricity price. Including electricity price in the TEA for CB-GeoTES leads to an increase in LCOS from the base value to 0.25 $\$$/kWhe. To determine storage sites suitable for GeoTES, we gathered and analyzed geological, petrophysical, and geophysical data of oil and gas reservoir and aquifers in California and Texas. We down-selected possible sites based on cut-off values for site characteristics (e.g., reservoir temperature, formation thickness, permeability, porosity, depth, and brine salinity) and preliminary costs. Using this approach, the Carrizo-Wilcox, Yegua-Jackson, and Dockum brackish aquifers in Texas were identified as having the highest suitability. Similarly, in the central California region, the White Wolf, Belridge South Tulare, and Belridge South Reef Ridge were the most suitable. Going further, we assessed the storage potential in the selected sites. To do this we developed distributions of reservoir characteristic data and applied a Monte Carlo-based analysis to account for intrinsic uncertainty in the acquired data. The analysis revealed that the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer had the highest storage potential with a mean capacity of 554 TWhth (i.e., 63 TWhe). The estimated capacity serves as an upper limit of storage potential given that not all fields in the basin will be developed. We participated in multiple outreach activities including conference presentations, panel session discussions, and the facilitation of a GeoTES workshop at the NREL Golden campus.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) Interface Control Document

This Interface Control Document (ICD) documents the airspace adaptation and air traffic inputs of NASA's Future ATM Concepts and Evaluation Tool (FACET). Its intended audience is the project manager, project team, development team, and stakeholders interested in interfacing with the system. FACET equips Air Traffic Management (ATM) researchers and service providers with a way to explore, develop and evaluate advanced air transportation concepts before they are field-tested and eventually deployed. FACET is a flexible software tool that is capable of quickly generating and analyzing thousands of aircraft trajectories. It provides researchers with a simulation environment for preliminary testing of advanced ATM concepts. Using aircraft performance profiles, airspace models, weather data, and flight schedules, the tool models trajectories for the climb, cruise, and descent phases of flight for each type of aircraft. An advanced graphical interface displays traffic patterns in two and three dimensions, under various current and projected conditions for specific airspace regions or over the entire continental United States. The system is able to simulate a full day's dynamic national airspace system (NAS) operations, model system uncertainty, measure the impact of different decision-makers in the NAS, and provide analysis of the results in graphical form, including sector, airport, fix, and airway usage statistics. NASA researchers test and analyze the system-wide impact of new traffic flow management algorithms under anticipated air traffic growth projections on the nation's air traffic system. In addition to modeling the airspace system for NASA research, FACET has also successfully transitioned into a valuable tool for operational use. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) traffic flow managers and commercial airline dispatchers have used FACET technology for real-time operations planning. FACET integrates live air traffic data from FAA radar systems and weather data from the National Weather Service to summarize NAS performance. This information allows system operators to reroute flights around congested airspace and severe weather to maintain safety and minimize delay. FACET also supports the planning and post-operational evaluation of reroute strategies at the national level to maximize system efficiency. For the commercial airline passenger, strategic planning with FACET can result in fewer flight delays and cancellations. The performance capabilities of FACET are largely due to its architecture, which strikes a balance between flexibility and fidelity. FACET is capable of modeling the airspace operations for the continental United States, processing thousands of aircraft on a single computer. FACET was written in Java and C, enabling the portability of its software to a variety of operating systems. In addition, FACET was designed with a modular software architecture to facilitate rapid prototyping of diverse ATM concepts. Several advanced ATM concepts have already been implemented in FACET, including aircraft self-separation, prediction of aircraft demand and sector congestion, system-wide impact assessment of traffic flow management constraints, and wind-optimal routing.

FACET

Interregional Transmission Operational Coordination (IRTOC)

This report presents a modeling and evaluation framework developed through the Inter-Regional Transmission Operational Coordination (IRTOC) project to study market-to-market (M2M) congestion management across day-ahead and real-time markets. The framework extends the Sienna platform through Sienna Decomposition, a multi-stage evaluation architecture that enables flexible representation of multiple regions and systematic assessment of alternative market coordination designs. Additional modeling capabilities include reserve deliverability constraints, High-Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) optimization for Alternating Current (AC) congestion management, and several real-time distributed coordination algorithms. Case studies using the RTS-GMLC test system and a large-scale Eastern Interconnection model demonstrate that the framework can evaluate alternative coordination structures and quantify their economic and operational impacts. The proposed framework provides a scalable platform for analyzing inter-regional coordination strategies in large-scale electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing