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At least 109 records · Page 6

Constructing auxiliary dynamics for nonequilibrium stationary states by variance minimization

We present a strategy to construct guiding distribution functions (GDFs) based on variance minimization. Auxiliary dynamics via GDFs mitigates the exponential growth of variance as a function of bias in Monte Carlo estimators of large deviation functions. The variance minimization technique exploits the exact properties of eigenstates of the tilted operator that defines the biased dynamics in the nonequilibrium system. We demonstrate our techniques in two classes of problems. In the continuum, we show that GDFs can be optimized to study the interacting driven diffusive systems where the efficiency is systematically improved by incorporating higher correlations into the GDF. On the lattice, we use a correlator product state ansatz to study the 1D weakly asymmetric simple exclusion process. We show that with modest resources, we can capture the features of the susceptibility in large systems that mark the phase transition from uniform transport to a traveling wave state. Our work extends the repertoire of tools available to study nonequilibrium properties in realistic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Toward electron temperature profiles in hot-dense plasmas from x-ray spectral ensembles

High repetition rate laser systems enable new strategies for diagnosing plasma behavior with large datasets. Here, we define an ensemble technique that relies on randomized targeting of x-ray tracer micro-stripes. On each shot, a high-intensity laser pulse is focused on a solid target with Ti tracer stripes embedded in an Al foil, randomly targeting a micro-stripe, a portion of a stripe, or a gap between stripes. High-resolution, time-integrated x-ray spectrometers capture line emission from the portion of the micro-stripe that is heated to sufficiently high electron temperatures. Accumulation of many such cases is used to construct ensemble distributions of x-ray line intensities that encompass all relative offsets of the laser focus to the micro-stripe centers. Synthetic intensity distributions are likewise generated using collisional-radiative modeling. Bayesian fitting of modeled to measured intensity distributions establishes the most likely radial temperature profiles, enabling comparison to hydrodynamic models and calling into question the cylindrical symmetry of these micro-stripe-embedded systems. Ensemble techniques have significant potential for high-energy-density plasma diagnostics, especially with the advent of high repetition rate experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analyzing line-of-sight selection biases in galaxy-scale strong lensing with external convergence and shear

The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will dramatically increase the number of strong gravitational lensing systems, requiring precise modeling of line-of-sight (LOS) effects to mitigate biases in lensing observations and cosmological inferences. We develop a method to construct joint distributions of external convergence (κ ext ) and shear (γ ext ) for strong lensing LOS by aggregating large-scale structure simulations with high-resolution halo renderings and non-linear correction. Our approach captures both smooth background matter and perturbations from halos, enabling accurate modeling of LOS effects. Here, we apply non-linear LOS corrections to κ ext and γ ext that address the non-additive lensing effects caused by objects along the LOS in strong lensing. We find that, with a minimum image separation of 1.0'', non-linear LOS correction due to the presence of a dominant deflector slightly increases the ratio of quadruple to double lenses; this non-linear LOS correction also introduces systematic biases of ∼ 0.1% for galaxy-AGN lens in the inferred Hubble constant (H 0 ) if not accounted for. We also observe a 0.66% bias for galaxy-galaxy lenses on H 0 , and even larger biases 1.02% for galaxy-AGN systems if LOS effects are not accounted for. These results highlight the importance of LOS for precision cosmology. The publicly available code and datasets provide tools for incorporating LOS effects in future analyses.

Hubble constant↗

The relationship between the incidence of X-ray selected AGN in nearby galaxies & star-formation rate

ABSTRACT We present the identification and analysis of an X-ray selected AGN sample that lie within the local (z < 0.35) galaxy population. From a parent sample of 22 079 MPA-JHU (based on SDSS DR8) galaxies, we identified 917 galaxies with central, excess X-ray emission (from 3XMM-DR7) likely originating from an AGN. We measured the host galaxies’ star formation rates and classified them as either star-forming or quiescent based on their position relative to main sequence of star formation. Only 72 per cent of the X-ray selected sample were identified as AGN using BPT selection; this technique is much less effective in quiescent hosts, only identifying 50 per cent of the X-ray AGN. We also calculated the growth rates of the black holes powering these AGN in terms of their specific accretion rate (∝ LX/M*) and found quiescent galaxies, on average, accrete at a lower rate than star-forming galaxies. Finally, we measured the sensitivity function of 3XMM so we could correct for observational bias and construct probability distributions as a function of accretion rate. AGN were found in galaxies across the full range of star formation rates ($\log _{10} \, \mathrm{SFR/M_\odot \ yr^{-1}} = -3\ \mathrm{to}\ 2$) in both star-forming and quiescent galaxies. The incidence of AGN was enhanced by a factor 2 (at a 3.5σ significance) in star-forming galaxies compared to quiescent galaxies of equivalent stellar mass and redshift, but we also found a significant population of AGN hosted by quiescent galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Considering the Variability of Soiling in Long-Term PV Performance Forecasting

This study presents the development of a methodology for evaluating the variability associated with soiling on long-term photovoltaic (PV) forecasting. Independent engineering firms typically build forecasts for large PV plants through the use of the PVsyst software, where monthly soiling losses are one of many inputs to the P50 model. Subsequently, long-term performance distributions are constructed through a Monte Carlo analysis that includes various factors, such as satellite irradiance modeling uncertainty, uncertainty in the PVsyst model, and long-term irradiance variability. Often the PVsyst model uncertainty is increased to account for sites with significant soiling concerns but no systematic method has been presented in the literature to specifically include soiling variability within long-term performance uncertainty. In this work soiling information from 16 sites in the U.S. Southwest are combined with 24 years of rainfall data to generate 24 years of energy production with soiling losses and then subsequently generate probability of exceedance values (e.g., P50, P90, P95…). The results show that the size of the 90% confidence interval (P5–P95) can increase from –0.7% to 10.1% when interannual soiling variability and soiling rate uncertainty is included.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Toward Uncertainty Quantification for Supervised Classification

Our goal is to develop a general theoretical basis for quantifying uncertainty in supervised machine learning models. Current machine learning accuracy-based validation metrics indicate how well a classifier performs on a given data set as a whole. However, these metrics do not tell us a model's efficacy in predicting particular samples. We quantify uncertainty by constructing probability distributions of the predictions made by an ensemble of classifiers. This report details our initial investigations into uncertainty quantification for supervised machine learning. We apply an uncertainty analysis to the problem of malicious website detection. Machine learning models can be trained to find suspicious characteristics in the text of a website's Uniform Resource Locator (URL). However, given the vast numbers of URLs and the ever changing tactics of malicious actors, it will always be possible to find sets of websites which are outliers with respect to a model's hypothesis. Therefore, we seek to understand a model's per-sample reliability when classifying URL data. Acknowledgements This work was funded by the Sandia National Laboratories Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

PET Imaging of the Neurotensin Targeting Peptide NOTA-NT-20.3 Using Cobalt-55, Copper-64 and Gallium-68

Introduction: Neurotensin receptor 1 (NTSR1) is an emerging target for imaging and therapy of many types of cancer. Nuclear imaging of NTSR1 allows for noninvasive assessment of the receptor levels of NTSR1 on the primary tumor, as well as potential metastases. This work focuses on a the neurotensin peptide analogue NT-20.3 conjugated to the chelator NOTA for radiolabeling for use in noninvasive positron emission tomography (PET). NOTA-NT-20.3 was radiolabeled with gallium-68, copper-64, and cobalt-55 to determine the effect that modification of the radiometal has on imaging and potential therapeutic properties of NOTA-NT-20.3. Methods: In vitro assays investigating cell uptake and subcellular localization of the radiolabeled peptides were performed using human colorectal adenocarcinoma HT29 cells. In vivo PET/CT imaging was used to determine the distribution and clearance of the peptide in mice bearing NTSR1 expressing HT29 tumors. Results: Cell uptake studies showed that the highest uptake was obtained with [ 55 Co] Co-NOTA-NT-20.3 (18.70 ± 1.30%ID/mg), followed by [ 64 Cu] Cu-NOTA-NT-20.3 (15.46 ± 0.91%ID/mg), and lastly [ 68 Ga] Ga-NOTA-NT-20.3 (10.94 ± 0.46%ID/mg) (p < 0.001). Subcellular distribution was similar across the three constructs, with the membranous fraction containing the highest amount of radioactivity. In vivo PET/CT imaging of the three constructs revealed similar distribution and tumor uptake at the 1 h imaging timepoint. Tumor uptake was receptor-specific and blockable by co-injection of non-radiolabeled NOTA-NT-20.3. SUV ratios of tumor to heart at the 24 h imaging timepoint show that [ 55 Co] Co-NOTA-NT-20.3 (20.28 ± 3.04) outperformed [ 64 Cu] Cu-NOTA-NT-20.3 (6.52 ± 1.97). In conclusion, our studies show that enhanced cell uptake and increasing tumor to blood ratios over time displayed the superiority of [ 55 Co] Co-NOTA-NT-20.3 over [ 68 Ga] Ga-NOTA-NT-20.3 and [ 64 Cu] Cu-NOTA-NT-20.3 for the targeting of NTSR1.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Spectroscopic and Photometric Monitoring of a Poorly Known Highly Luminous OH/IR Star: IRAS 18278+0931

We present the time-dependent properties of a poorly known OH/IR star, IRAS 18278+0931 (hereafter IRAS 18+09), toward the Ophiuchus constellation. We have carried out long-term optical/near-infrared photometric and spectroscopic observations to study the object. From optical R- and I-band light curves, the period of IRAS 18+09 is estimated to be 575 ± 30 days and the variability amplitudes range from ΔR ∼ 4.0 mag to ΔI ∼ 3.5 mag. From the standard period–luminosity relations, the distance (D) to the object, 4.0 ± 1.3 kpc, is estimated. Applying this distance in the radiative transfer model, the spectral energy distribution is constructed from multiwavelength photometric and IRAS-LRS spectral data, which provide the luminosity, optical depth, and gas mass-loss rate of the object to be 9600 ± 500 L {sub ⊙}, 9.1 ± 0.6 at 0.55 μm, and 1.0 × 10{sup −6} M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1}, respectively. The current mass of the object is inferred to be in the range 1.0−1.5 M {sub ⊙} assuming solar metallicity. Notably, the temporal variation of atomic and molecular features (e.g., TiO, Na i, Ca i, CO, H{sub 2}O) over the pulsation cycle of the OH/IR star illustrates the sensitivity of the spectral features to the dynamical atmosphere as observed in pulsating AGB stars.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative cooling of bodies of arbitrary shape and variable volume in vacuum

On the basis of joint application of the Tolubinskii integral method and the perturbation method, the asymptotic unsteady temperature distribution is constructed for a region of arbitrary shape on the moving boundary of which there are located nonlinear heat sinks (sources), describing radiative cooling in a medium with zero temperature (in a vacuum).

Novikov, V. S.↗

The tasselled cap - A graphic description of the spectral-temporal development of agricultural crops as seen by Landsat

The time trajectories of agricultural data points as seen in Landsat signal space form a pattern suggestive of a tasselled woolly cap. Most of the important crop phenomena can be described using this three dimensional construct: the distribution of signals from bare soil, the processes of green development, yellow development, and shadowing and harvesting. A linear preprocessing transformation which isolates green development, yellow development and soil brightness is used to reduce the dimension of the signal space. Specific measurable pattern elements of the tasselled cap are used to estimate and correct atmospheric haze and moisture effects.

Kauth, R. J.↗

Environment effects from SRB exhaust effluents: Technique development and preliminary assessment

Techniques to determine the environmental effects from the space shuttle SRB (Solid Rocket Booster) exhaust effluents are used to perform a preliminary climatological assessment. The exhaust effluent chemistry study was performed and the exhaust effluent species were determined. A reasonable exhaust particle size distribution is constructed for use in nozzle analyses and for the deposition model. The preliminary assessment is used to identify problems that are associated with the full-scale assessment; therefore, these preliminary air quality results are used with caution in drawing conclusion regarding the environmental effects of the space shuttle exhaust effluents.

Goldford, A. I.↗

Three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic turbulence in cylindrical geometry

A theory is developed in which a perfectly conducting cylindrical wall is used to describe incompressible MHD turbulence. Dynamic equations of incompressible MHD and its associated fields are expanded in a system of vector eigenfunctions of the curl. The total energy, magnetic helicity, and cross helicity have simple quadratic expressions in the expansion coefficients. The invariants are temporally constant for a truncation at a large, but finite, number of coefficients. The invariants are used to construct canonical distributions. It is noted that for all initial conditions, including quiescent ones, the mean-square velocity fields have finite values. The stability problem is transformed into a search for values of the integral variants which minimize the mean-square velocity fields. This leads to an extremal helicity principle.

Montgomery, D.↗

Electron distribution functions associated with electrostatic emissions in the dayside magnetosphere

The analysis deals with electron distribution functions constructed from ISEE-1 dayside observations of low-energy magnetospheric electrons at low latitudes. The discussion covers some examples corresponding to three distinct types of odd half harmonic electrostatic emissions, observed in the plasma wave experiment on ISEE-1, which occur between the electron cyclotron frequency and the upper hybrid frequency.

Sentman, D. D.↗

Topography and tectonics of mid-oceanic ridge axes

Numerical fluid dynamic models of mid-oceanic ridge axes were constructed using distributions of material properties constrained by seismic studies and thermal calculations. The calculations indicate that spreading is passive except for forces caused by density differences due to thermal expansion and partial melt. Except for geometric differences due to temperature distribution, one set of mechanical properties can adequately explain central rifts of slow ridges and central peaks of fast ridges. Viscous head loss in the upwelling material dominates at low spreading rates where material ascends through a narrow conduit. Thermal expansion and partial melting dominate at high spreading rates where a wide low viscosity crustal magma chamber is present. The preferred rheology is 10 to the 20th poise for the upwelling lithosphere; less than 5 x 10 to the 17th for the crustal magma chamber and axial intrusion zone at fast ridges, and a yield stress of 200 bars for the lithosphere. The calculation correctly predicts the existence of central peaks at 'hot-spot' ridges, where seismic evidence indicates a large magma chamber.

Sleep, N. H.↗

Develop and test fuel cell powered on-site integrated total energy system

Satisfactory performance is reported for the first 12-cell sub-stack of the 5 kW rebuild using improved ABA reactant distribution plates. Construction and test results are described for the first full-sized single-cell test (0.33 m x 0.56 m). Test duration was 450 hours. Plans are outlined for construction and testing of two methanol reformer units based on commercially-available shell-and-tube heat exchangers. A 5 kW-equivalent precursor and a 50 kW-equivalent prototype will be built. Supporting design and single-tube experimental data are presented. Stack support efforts are summarized on corrosion currents of graphite materials and acid-management of single-cell test facilities. Comparative properties are summarized for the two methanol/steam reforming catalysts evauated under Task V (now completed); T2107RS and C70-2RS.

Kaufman, A.↗

An overview of reliability methods in mechanical and structural design

An evaluation is made of modern methods of fast probability integration and Monte Carlo treatment for the assessment of structural systems' and components' reliability. Fast probability integration methods are noted to be more efficient than Monte Carlo ones. This is judged to be an important consideration when several point probability estimates must be made in order to construct a distribution function. An example illustrating the relative efficiency of the various methods is included.

Wirsching, P. H.↗