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Dose estimates and their uncertainties for use in epidemiological studies of radiation-exposed populations in the Russian Southern Urals

Many residents of the Russian Southern Urals were exposed to radioactive environmental pollution created by the operations of the Mayak Production Association in the mid- 20 th century. There were two major releases: the discharge of about 1x10 17 Bq of liquid waste into the Techa River between 1949 and 1959; and the atmospheric release of 7.4 * 10 16 Bq as a result an explosion in the radioactive waste-storage facility in 1957. The releases into the Techa River resulted in the exposure of more than 30,000 people who lived in riverside villages between 1950 and 1961. The 1957 accident contaminated a larger area with the highest exposure levels in an area that is called the East Urals Radioactive Trace (EURT). Current epidemiologic studies of the exposed populations are based on dose estimates obtained using a Monte-Carlo dosimetry system (TRDS-2016MC) that provides multiple realizations of the annual doses for each cohort member. These dose realizations provide a central estimate of the individual dose and information on the uncertainty of these dose estimates. In addition, the correlation of individual annual doses over realizations provides important information on shared uncertainties that can be used to assess the impact of shared dose uncertainties on risk estimate uncertainty.This paper considers dose uncertainties in the TRDS-2016MC. Individual doses from external and internal radiation sources were reconstructed for 48,036 people based on environmental contamination patterns, residential histories, individual 90 Sr body-burden measurements and dietary intakes. Dietary intake of 90 Sr resulted in doses accumulated in active bone marrow (or simply, marrow) that were an order of magnitude greater than those in soft tissues. About 84% of the marrow dose and 50% of the stomach dose was associated with internal exposures. The lognormal distribution is well-fitted to the individual dose realizations, which, therefore, could be expressed and easily operated in terms of geometric mean (GM) and geometric standard deviation (GSD). Cohort average GM for marrow and stomach cumulative doses are 0.21 and 0.03 Gy, respectively. Cohort average dose uncertainties in terms of GSD are as follows: for marrow it is 2.93 (90%CI: 2.02–4.34); for stomach and the other non-calcified tissues it is 2.32 (90% CI: 1.78–2.9).

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Space radiation absorbed dose distribution in a human phantom

The radiation risk to astronauts has always been based on measurements using passive thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLDs). The skin dose is converted to dose equivalent using an average radiation quality factor based on model calculations. The radiological risk estimates, however, are based on organ and tissue doses. This paper describes results from the first space flight (STS-91, 51.65 degrees inclination and approximately 380 km altitude) of a fully instrumented Alderson Rando phantom torso (with head) to relate the skin dose to organ doses. Spatial distributions of absorbed dose in 34 1-inch-thick sections measured using TLDs are described. There is about a 30% change in dose as one moves from the front to the back of the phantom body. Small active dosimeters were developed specifically to provide time-resolved measurements of absorbed dose rates and quality factors at five organ locations (brain, thyroid, heart/lung, stomach and colon) inside the phantom. Using these dosimeters, it was possible to separate the trapped-proton and the galactic cosmic radiation components of the doses. A tissue-equivalent proportional counter (TEPC) and a charged-particle directional spectrometer (CPDS) were flown next to the phantom torso to provide data on the incident internal radiation environment. Accurate models of the shielding distributions at the site of the TEPC, the CPDS and a scalable Computerized Anatomical Male (CAM) model of the phantom torso were developed. These measurements provided a comprehensive data set to map the dose distribution inside a human phantom, and to assess the accuracy and validity of radiation transport models throughout the human body. The results show that for the conditions in the International Space Station (ISS) orbit during periods near the solar minimum, the ratio of the blood-forming organ dose rate to the skin absorbed dose rate is about 80%, and the ratio of the dose equivalents is almost one. The results show that the GCR model dose-rate predictions are 20% lower than the observations. Assuming that the trapped-belt models lead to a correct orbit-averaged energy spectrum, the measurements of dose rates inside the phantom cannot be fully understood. Passive measurements using 6Li- and 7Li-based detectors on the astronauts and inside the brain and thyroid of the phantom show the presence of a significant contribution due to thermal neutrons, an area requiring additional study.

STS-91 Shuttle Project↗

Can the Equivalent Sphere Model Approximate Organ Doses in Space?

For space radiation protection it is often useful to calculate dose or dose,equivalent in blood forming organs (BFO). It has been customary to use a 5cm equivalent sphere to. simulate the BFO dose. However, many previous studies have concluded that a 5cm sphere gives very different dose values from the exact BFO values. One study [1] . concludes that a 9 cm sphere is a reasonable approximation for BFO'doses in solar particle event environments. In this study we use a deterministic radiation transport [2] to investigate the reason behind these observations and to extend earlier studies. We take different space radiation environments, including seven galactic cosmic ray environments and six large solar particle events, and calculate the dose and dose equivalent in the skin, eyes and BFO using their thickness distribution functions from the CAM (Computerized Anatomical Man) model [3] The organ doses have been evaluated with a water or aluminum shielding of an areal density from 0 to 20 g/sq cm. We then compare with results from the equivalent sphere model and determine in which cases and at what radius parameters the equivalent sphere model is a reasonable approximation. Furthermore, we address why the equivalent sphere model is not a good approximation in some cases. For solar particle events, we find that the radius parameters for the organ dose equivalent increase significantly with the shielding thickness, and the model works marginally for BFO but is unacceptable for the eye or the skin. For galactic cosmic rays environments, the equivalent sphere model with an organ-specific constant radius parameter works well for the BFO dose equivalent, marginally well for the BFO dose and the dose equivalent of the eye or the skin, but is unacceptable for the dose of the eye or the skin. The ranges of the radius parameters are also being investigated, and the BFO radius parameters are found to be significantly, larger than 5 cm in all cases, consistent with the conclusion of an earlier study [I]. The radius parameters for the dose equivalent in GCR environments are approximately between 10 and I I cm for the BFO, 3.7 to 4.8 cm for the eye, and 3.5 to 5.6 cm for the skin; while the radius parameters are between 10 and 13 cm for the BFO dose.

Lin, Zi-Wei↗

ELDRS Characterization for a Very High Dose Mission

Evaluation of bipolar linear parts which may have Enhanced Low Dose Rate Sensitivity (ELDRS) is problematic for missions that have very high dose radiation requirements. The accepted standards for evaluating parts that display ELDRS require testing at a very low dose rate which could be prohibitively long for very high dose missions. In this work, a methodology for ELDRS characterization of bipolar parts for mission doses up to 1 Mrad(Si) is evaluated. The procedure employs an initial dose rate of 0.01 rad(Si)/s to a total dose of 50 krad(Si) and then changes to 0.04 rad(Si)/s to a total dose of 1 Mrad(Si). This procedure appears to work well. No change in rate of degradation with dose has been observed when the dose rate is changed from 0.01 to 0.04 rad(Si)/s. This is taken as an indication that the degradation due to the higher dose rate is equivalent to that at the lower dose rate at the higher dose levels, at least for the parts studied to date. In several cases, significant parameter degradation or functional failure not observed at HDR was observed at fairly high total doses (50 to 250 krad(Si)) at LDR. This behavior calls into question the use of dose rate trend data and enhancement factors to predict LDR performance.

Radiation Damage↗

A Systematic Assessment of US Food and Drug Administration Dosing Recommendations For Drug Development Programs Amenable to Response‐Guided Titration

A key goal in drug development is optimized dosing for patients. Interactions between drug developers and regulatory scientists throughout development are important for the optimization of dosing and serve as a forum to discuss approaches for optimal dosing, such as precision or individualized dosing. To date, there has not been a systematic assessment of the advice provided by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to drug developers from an individualized dosing perspective. Here, we reviewed FDA recommendations on dose selection for efficacy trials at end‐of‐phase meetings between the FDA and drug developers for 76 new molecular entities approved between 2013 and 2017 that are considered amenable for an individualized dosing method, response‐guided titration. Forty FDA dosing recommendations were identified as specific to dose selection and design of the respective efficacy trials and subsequently: (i) characterized based on if they were supportive of individualized dosing and (ii) compared with dosing regimens used in efficacy trials and labeling at approval to evaluate if FDA recommendations were implemented. Of these 40 recommendations for efficacy trials, 35 (88%) were considered supportive of individualized dosing. Eighteen of these 40 recommendations (45%) were incorporated into efficacy trials and 11 (28%) were incorporated into labeling. This research suggests that early FDA‐sponsor interactions can support the study of doses in efficacy trials that may lead to individualized dosing strategies in labeling.

Wang, Lingshan↗

Comparison and calibration of dose delivered by 137 Cs and x-ray irradiators in mice

Objective. The Office of Radiological Security, U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration, is implementing a radiological risk reduction program which seeks to minimize or eliminate the use of high activity radiological sources, including 137 Cs, by replacing them with non-radioisotopic technologies, such as x-ray irradiators. The main goal of this paper is to evaluate the equivalence of the dose delivered by gamma- and x-ray irradiators in mice using experimental measurements and Monte Carlo simulations. We also propose a novel biophantom as an in situ dose calibration method. Approach. We irradiated mouse carcasses and 3D-printed mouse biophantoms in a 137 Cs irradiator (Mark I-68) and an x-ray irradiator (X-Rad320) at three voltages (160 kVp, 225 kVp and 320 kVp) and measured the delivered radiation dose. A Geant4-based Monte Carlo model was developed and validated to provide a comprehensive picture of gamma- and x-ray irradiation in mice. Main Results. Our Monte Carlo model predicts a uniform dose delivered in soft-tissue for all the explored irradiation programs and in agreement with the absolute dose measurements. Our Monte Carlo model shows an energy-dependent difference between dose in bone and in soft tissue that decreases as photon energy increases. Dose rate depends on irradiator and photon energy. We observed a deviation of the measured dose from the target value of up to –9% for the Mark I-68, and up to 35% for the X-Rad320. The dose measured in the 3D-printed phantoms are equivalent to that in the carcasses within 6% uncertainty. Significance. Our results suggest that 320 kVp irradiation is a good candidate to substitute 137 Cs irradiation barring a few caveats. There is a significant difference between measured and targeted doses for x-ray irradiation that suggests a strong need for in situ calibration, which can be achieved with 3D-printed mouse biophantoms. A dose correction is necessary for bone doses, which can be provided by a Monte Carlo calculation. Lastly, the biological implications of the differences in dose rates and dose per photon for the different irradiation methods should be carefully assessed for each small-animal irradiation experiment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Pediatric dosing for locally acting drugs in submissions to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between 2002 and 2020

Abstract Deriving pediatric doses for locally acting drugs (LADs) presents a unique challenge because limited systemic exposure hinders commonly used approaches such as pharmacokinetic matching to adults. This study systematically evaluated drug development practices used for pediatric dose selection of LADs approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from 2002 to 2020. The three study objectives were: (1) to determine the dose selection approach for the labeled pediatric dose, (2) to examine the studied pediatric dose(s), and (3) to evaluate the characteristics of the pediatric clinical programs used to support the labeled pediatric dose. A total of 187 pediatric submissions were characterized for the labeled and studied pediatric doses of LADs. The pediatric dose was predominantly labeled as a flat dose (91%) and at a single‐dose level (67%) similar to adults. The majority (68.4%) of the submissions had the same labeled dose for pediatrics and adults. Independent pharmacodynamic/efficacy studies in pediatric patients commonly (64.2%) provided supportive evidence for the labeled pediatric dose. Inhalation, nasal, and injectable submissions had the highest number of clinical trials, lowest usage of an extrapolation of efficacy approach, and utilized diverse approaches in selecting the studied pediatric doses. This article highlights approaches for LAD dosing in pediatric patients and can be used to inform drug development of these products in the pediatric population.

Research & Experimental Medicine↗

Improving Dose-Optimization Processes Used in Oncology Drug Development to Minimize Toxicity and Maximize Benefit to Patients

This review highlights strategies to integrate dose optimization into premarketing drug development and discusses the underlying statistical principles. Poor dose optimization can have negative consequences for patients, most commonly because of toxicity, including poor quality of life, reduced effectiveness because of inability of patients to stay on current therapy or receive subsequent therapy because of toxicities, and difficulty in developing combination regimens. We reviewed US Food and Drug Administration initial approvals (2019-2021) of small molecules and antibody-drug conjugates for oncologic indications to determine the proportion with a recommended dosage at the maximum tolerated dose or the maximal administered dose, to characterize the use of randomized evaluations of multiple dosages in dose selection, to describe the frequency of dose modifications at the recommended dosage, and to identify case examples that highlight key principles for premarket dose optimization during drug development. Herein, we highlight major principles for dose optimization and review examples of recent US Food and Drug Administration approvals that illustrate how investigation of dose- and exposure-response relationships and use of randomized dose trials can support dose optimization. Although there has been some progress, dose optimization through randomized dose evaluation in oncology trials is not routinely conducted. Dose optimization is essential to ensure that patients receive therapies which maximize efficacy while minimizing toxicity.

Oncology↗

Chromosomal Aberrations in DNA Repair Defective Cell Lines: Comparisons of Dose Rate and Radiation Quality

Chromosome aberration yields were assessed in DNA double-strand break repair (DSB) deficient cells after acute doses of gamma-rays or high-LET iron nuclei, or low dose-rate (0.018 Gy/hr) gamma-rays. We studied several cell lines including fibroblasts deficient in ATM (product of the gene that is mutated in ataxia telangiectasia patients) or NBS (product of the gene mutated in the Nijmegen breakage syndrome), and gliomablastoma cells that are proficient or lacking in DNA-dependent protein kinase, DNA-PK activity. Chromosomes were analyzed using the fluorescence in-situ hybridization (FISH) chromosome painting method in cells at the first division post-irradiation and chromosome aberrations were identified as either simple exchanges (translocations and dicentrics) or complex exchanges (involving >2 breaks in 2 or more chromosomes). Gamma radiation induced higher yields of both simple and complex exchanges in the DSB repair defective cells than in the normal cells. The quadratic dose-response terms for both chromosome exchange types were significantly higher for the ATM and NBS defective lines than for normal fibroblasts. However, the linear dose-response term was significantly higher only for simple exchanges in the NBS cells. Large increases in the quadratic dose response terms indicate the important roles of ATM and NBS in chromatin modifications that facilitate correct DSB repair and minimize aberration formation. Differences in the response of AT and NBS deficient cells at lower doses suggests important questions about the applicability of observations of radiation sensitivity at high dose to low dose exposures. For all iron nuclei irradiated cells, regression models preferred purely linear and quadratic dose responses for simple and complex exchanges, respectively. All the DNA repair defective cell lines had lower Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) values than normal cells, the lowest being for the DNA-PK-deficient cells, which was near unity. To further investigate the sensitivity differences for low and low high doses, we performed chronic low dose-rate irradiation, and have begun studies with ATM and Nibrin inhibitors and siRNA knockout of these proteins. Results support the conclusion that for the endpoint of simple chromosomal aberrations (translocation or dicentrics), the increased radiation sensitivity of AT cells found at high doses (>1 Gy) does not carry over to low doses or doserates, while NBS cells show increased sensitivity for both high and low dose exposures.

George, K. A.↗

Reconstructing Hanford worker external doses from photons for epidemiology

The accurate reconstruction of external photon doses is essential for credible radiation epidemiology. This article presents the methodology used to derive dose estimates for 37 012 Hanford Site workers included in the Million Person Study. The approach employs historical dose records from the Hanford Radiation Exposure database and a previous epidemiology study. Bias correction factors specific to dosimeter type and period of use were applied and missing annual doses were estimated using a hierarchical nearby method to estimate deep dose equivalent for each worker. For early years with limited detection sensitivity, missed doses were quantified based on expected time-period-specific, low-dose statistical distributions. The revised dose estimates resulted in lower median and mean career doses than unadjusted data, while increasing the number of person-years with nonzero dose. Sensitivity analyses assessed the influence of bias in dosimetry measurements, missed doses and gap years on dose estimates. Differences in cumulative dose estimates between unadjusted and revised annual estimates are most prominent in the early operational years due to the highest bias during that time period.

dose reconstruction↗

Influence of neutron cross-section resonances on organ/tissue equivalent and effective dose coefficients for the ICRP voxel phantoms

The materials which compose the ICRP Voxel phantoms used in the computation of conversion coefficients involve neutron interaction cross-sections that have resonances at specific energies. Depending on the energy bin structure used in the computations, these cross-section resonances may occur at energies that fall between energies at which dose coefficients are computed, thus their effects may not be completely accounted for in the reported coefficients. Here In this study, a highly refined energy grid that closely follows the resonance structure in the phantom material cross-sections was identified and used to calculate dose coefficients. Both the equivalent organ/tissue doses for male and female voxel phantoms were computed as well as their summation to obtain the effective dose coefficients. The used refined energy grid tracks very closely the cross-sections in the vicinity of the resonances. The resulting refined energy grid coefficients are compared to coefficients for the coarser energy grid used in ICRP Publication 116. Additionally, reference spectra have been folded with both the fine and coarse sets of conversion coefficients. The resulting total effective doses for these reference spectra are used to assess the adequacy of the dose coefficients calculated on the original ICRP 116 energy grid. The dose coefficients were similarly computed for the local skin dose on the trunk of the body using the ICRU Report 95 phantom. The overall impact of the resonances on the organ/tissue equivalent dose, the effective dose, and the local skin dose are presented and discussed. In general, it was found that resonances can impact neutron dose coefficients, but in most cases the wide range of neutron energies encountered minimized this effect. The impact of resonances was further limited when computing effective dose due to organ/tissue summing and sex-averaging. For the neutron fields studied here, the impact was below 5%.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dose-finding studies in drug development for rare genetic diseases

The small patient populations inherent to rare genetic diseases present many challenges to the traditional drug development paradigm. One major challenge is generating sufficient data in early phase studies to inform dose selection for later phase studies and dose optimization for clinical use of the drug. However, optimizing the benefit-risk profile of drugs through appropriate dose selection during drug development is critical for all drugs, including those being developed to treat rare diseases. Recognizing the challenges of conducting dose finding studies in rare disease populations and the importance of dose selection and optimization for successful drug development, we assessed the dose-finding studies and analyses conducted for drugs recently approved for rare genetic diseases. Of the 40 marketing applications for new molecular entity (NME) drugs and biologics approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration for rare genetic diseases from 2015 to 2020, 21 (53%) of the development programs conducted at least one dedicated dose-finding study. In addition, the majority of drug development programs conducted clinical studies in healthy subjects and included population pharmacokinetic and exposure–response analyses; some programs also conducted clinical studies in patient populations other than the disease for which the drug was initially approved. The majority of primary endpoints utilized in dedicated dose-finding studies were biomarkers, and the primary endpoint of the safety and efficacy study matched the primary endpoint used in the dose finding study in 9 of 13 (69%) drug development programs where primary study endpoints were assessed. Our study showed that NME drug development programs for rare genetic diseases utilize multiple data sources for dosing information, including studies in healthy subjects, population pharmacokinetic analyses, and exposure–response analyses. In addition, our results indicate that biomarkers play a key role in dose-finding studies for rare genetic disease drug development programs. Our findings highlight the need to develop study designs and methods to allow adequate dose-finding efforts within rare disease drug development programs that help overcome the challenges presented by low patient prevalence and other factors. Furthermore, the frequent reliance on biomarkers as endpoints for dose-finding studies underscores the importance of biomarker development in rare diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Comparison of All Solid Cancer Mortality and Incidence Dose-Response in the Life Span Study of Atomic Bomb Survivors, 1958–2009

Recent analysis of all solid cancer incidence (1958–2009) in the Life Span Study (LSS) revealed evidence of upward curvature in the radiation dose response among males but not females. Upward curvature in sex-averaged excess relative risk (ERR) for all solid cancer mortality (1950–2003) was also observed in the 0–2 Gy dose range. As reasons for non-linearity in the LSS are not completely understood, we conducted dose response analyses for all solid cancer mortality and incidence applying similar methods (1958–2009 follow-up, DS02R1 doses, including subjects notin-city (NIC) at the time of the bombing) and statistical models. Incident cancers were ascertained from Hiroshima and Nagasaki cancer registries, while cause of death was ascertained from death certificates over entire Japan. The study included 105,444 LSS subjects who were alive and not known to have cancer before Jan 1, 1958 (80,205 with dose estimates and 25,239 NIC subjects). Between 1958 and 2009, there were 3.1 million person-years (PY) and 22,538 solid cancers for incidence analysis and 3.8 million PY and 15,419 solid cancer deaths for mortality analysis. We fitted sex-specific ERR models adjusted for smoking to both types of data. Over the entire range of doses, solid cancer mortality dose response exhibited a borderline significant upward curvature among males (P=0.062) and significant upward curvature among females (P=0.010); for solid cancer incidence, as before, we found a significant upward curvature among males (P=0.001) but not among females (P=0.624). The sex difference in magnitude of dose response curvature was statistically significant for cancer incidence (P=0.017) but not for cancer mortality (P=0.781). The results of analyses in the 0–2 Gy range and restricted lower dose ranges generally supported inferences made about the sex-specific dose response shape over the entire range of doses for each outcome. Patterns of sex-specific curvature by calendar period (1958–1987 vs 1988–2009) and age at exposure (0–19 vs 20–83) varied between mortality and incidence data, particularly among females, although for each outcome there was an indication of curvature among 0–19 year old male survivors in both calendar periods and among 0–19 year old female survivors in the recent period. Collectively, our findings indicate that the upward curvature in all solid cancer dose response in the LSS is neither specific to males nor to incidence data; it appears to depend on composition of case series and age at exposure or time. Further follow-up and site-specific analyses of cancer mortality and incidence will be important to confirm the emerging trend in dose response curvature among young survivors and unveil the contributing factors and sites.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Dose-Rate Effects of Protons and Light Ions for DNA Damage Induction, Survival and Transformation in Apparently Normal Primary Human Fibroblasts

In this work, we report on effects of low-dose exposures of accelerated protons delivered at high-dose rate (HDR) or a simulated solar-particle event (SPE) like low-dose rate (LDR) on immediate DNA damage induction and processing, survival and in vitro transformation of low passage NFF28 apparently normal primary human fibroblasts. Cultures were exposed to 50, 100 and 1,000 MeV monoenergetic protons in the Bragg entrance/plateau region and cesium-137 γ rays at 20 Gy/h (HDR) or 1 Gy/h (LDR). DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) and clustered DNA damages (containing oxypurines and abasic sites) were measured using transverse alternating gel electrophoresis (TAFE) and immunocytochemical detection/scoring of colocalized γ-H2AX pS139/53BP1 foci, with their induction being linear energy transfer (LET) dependent and dose-rate sparing observed for the different damage classes. Relative biological effectiveness (RBE) values for cell survival after proton irradiation at both dose-rates ranged from 0.61–0.73. Transformation RBE values were dose-rate dependent, ranging from ~1.8–3.1 and ~0.6–1.0 at low doses (≤30 cGy) for HDR and LDR irradiations, respectively. However peak transformation frequencies were significantly higher (1.3–7.3-fold) for higher doses of 0.5–1 Gy delivered at SPE-like LDR. Cell survival and transformation frequencies measured after low-dose 500 MeV/n He-4, 290 MeV/n C-12 and 600 MeV/n Si-28 ion irradiations also showed an inverse dose-rate effect for transformation at SPE-like LDR. This work demonstrates the existence of inverse dose-rate effects for proton and light-ion-induced postirradiation cell survival and in vitro transformation for space mission-relevant doses and dose rates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Non-Targeted Effects and the Dose Response for Heavy Ion Tumorigenesis

BACKGROUND: There is no human epidemiology data available to estimate the heavy ion cancer risks experienced by astronauts in space. Studies of tumor induction in mice are a necessary step to estimate risks to astronauts. Previous experimental data can be better utilized to model dose response for heavy ion tumorigenesis and plan future low dose studies. DOSE RESPONSE MODELS: The Harderian Gland data of Alpen et al.[1-3] was re-analyzed [4] using non-linear least square regression. The data set measured the induction of Harderian gland tumors in mice by high-energy protons, helium, neon, iron, niobium and lanthanum with LET s ranging from 0.4 to 950 keV/micron. We were able to strengthen the individual ion models by combining data for all ions into a model that relates both radiation dose and LET for the ion to tumor prevalence. We compared models based on Targeted Effects (TE) to one motivated by Non-targeted Effects (NTE) that included a bystander term that increased tumor induction at low doses non-linearly. When comparing fitted models to the experimental data, we considered the adjusted R2, the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), and the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to test for Goodness of fit.In the adjusted R2test, the model with the highest R2values provides a better fit to the available data. In the AIC and BIC tests, the model with the smaller values of the summary value provides the better fit. The non-linear NTE models fit the combined data better than the TE models that are linear at low doses. We evaluated the differences in the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) and found the NTE model provides a higher RBE at low dose compared to the TE model. POWER ANALYSIS: The final NTE model estimates were used to simulate example data to consider the design of new experiments to detect NTE at low dose for validation. Power and sample sizes were calculated for a variety of radiation qualities including some not considered in the Harderian Gland data set and with different background tumor incidences. We considered different experimental designs with varying number of doses and varying low doses dependant on the LET of the radiation. The optimal design to detect a NTE for an individual ion had 4 doses equally spaced below a maximal dose where bending due to cell sterilization was < 2%. For example at 100 keV/micron we would irradiate at 0.03 Gy, 0.065 Gy, 0.13 Gy, and 0.26 Gy and require 850 mice including a control dose for a sensitivity to detect NTE with 80% power. Sample sizes could be improved by combining ions similar to the methods used with the Harderian Gland data.

Chappelli, Lori J.↗

Fundamentals of wildlife dosimetry and lessons learned from a decade of measuring external dose rates in the field

Methods for determining the radiation dose received by exposed biota require major improvements to reduce uncertainties and increase precision. We share our experiences in attempting to quantify external dose rates to free-ranging wildlife using GPS-coupled dosimetry methods. The manuscript is a primer on fundamental concepts in wildlife dosimetry in which the complexities of quantifying dose rates are highlighted, and lessons learned are presented based on research with wild boar and snakes at Fukushima, wolves at Chornobyl, and reindeer in Norway. GPS-coupled dosimeters produced empirical data to which numerical simulations of external dose using computer software were compared. Our data did not support a standing paradigm in risk analyses: Using averaged soil contaminant levels to model external dose rates conservatively overestimate the dose to individuals within a population. Following this paradigm will likely lead to misguided recommendations for risk management. The GPS-dosimetry data also demonstrated the critical importance of how modeled external dose rates are impacted by the scale at which contaminants are mapped. When contaminant mapping scales are coarse even detailed knowledge about each animal’s home range was inadequate to accurately predict external dose rates. Importantly, modeled external dose rates based on a single measurement at a trap site did not correlate to actual dose rates measured on free ranging animals. These findings provide empirical data to support published concerns about inadequate dosimetry in much of the published Chernobyl and Fukushima dose-effects research. Furthermore, our data indicate that a huge portion of that literature should be challenged, and that improper dosimetry remains a significant source of controversy in radiation dose-effect research.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Inadvertent Human Intruder Limits and Doses in Support of the PA2022

This report documents the inadvertent human intruder (IHI) analysis for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) at the Savannah River Site (SRS), near Aiken, South Carolina. This analysis supports the revised ELLWF Performance Assessment (PA), complying with the Department of Energy standard for operation of low-level waste disposal facilities (USDOE, 2017). The ELLWF is an operating waste disposal facility and is scheduled to continue accepting waste to 2065. One task of the revised PA is to establish waste inventory limits for the various disposal units at ELLWF. This is done by modeling future contaminant release and transport through applicable pathways to human receptors, comparing predicted doses per disposed curie with applicable performance measures, to obtain inventory limits which will assure that doses to receptors do not exceed performance measures. This report documents results of modeling future doses to one class of receptor, the inadvertent human intruder. It is assumed that after site closure, public knowledge of the site is lost, and IHIs will engage in activities on the ELLWF that will disrupt the closure cap, causing dose to the IHI. Following USDOE (2017), six different stylized exposure scenarios are considered, simulating activities by an IHI which could result in a radiological dose. The six scenarios are: • Acute – Basement Construction: IHI constructs a basement and encounters waste during excavation which is inadvertently mixed with clean soil and diluted. • Acute – Well Drilling: IHI drills a water well through waste and is exposed to drill cuttings mixed with clean soil that are brought to the surface. • Acute – Discovery: IHI begins constructing a basement but stops when encountering the riprap in the final closure cap and is exposed to photon radiation from unexcavated material residing in the undisturbed waste zone. • Chronic – Agriculture: Resident IHI is exposed to waste that was excavated for basement construction and mixed with native soil in the intruder’s vegetable garden. • Chronic – Post-Drilling: Resident IHI is exposed to waste from drill cuttings mixed with native soil and scattered in the garden area. • Chronic – Residential: Resident IHI is exposed to external radiation while in home located above waste with shielding provided by the concrete basement floor and any soil or engineered material remaining between the basement and waste. Dose calculations are performed using the SRNL Dose Toolkit (Aleman, 2023), following the approach of Smith et al (2019). Calculations are performed separately for 27 of the 33 disposal units (DUs) at ELLWF and are radionuclide specific. The results of the IHI analysis include: • Dose Factors: mrem per disposed curie (acute) and mrem/yr per disposed curie (chronic) for each parent radionuclide, for each DU. • Inventory Limits: in curies, for each parent radionuclide, for each DU. • Estimated Dose to IHI: mrem (acute) and mrem/yr (chronic), for each DU, given its projected closure inventory without inventory biases applied. Most DU-specific IHI inventory limits are in the range of 10 3 to 10 7 curies per nuclide. The lowest inventory limits are associated with gamma-emitters such as Sn-126, Ra-226, Th-232, and Cm-248. Radionuclides with short half-lives such as Pu-241, and nuclides which are pure beta emitters or which decay by electron capture, such as Ni-59 and Ni-63, have the highest limits. For the 27 evaluated DUs, predicted IHI doses are shown in Table ES-1. The maximum acute dose is 1.18 mrem, at ST23, much less than the DOE performance measure of 500 mrem (USDOE, 2017). The highest chronic dose is 37.2 mrem/yr at ST02, below the DOE performance measure of 100 mrem/yr. Also shown are estimated inventory sums of fractions (SOFs) at closure in 2065, for groundwater (GW) and IHI pathways. For each DU, the inventory is constrained by the GW pathway. For most DUs, the IHI SOFs are approximately 1000 times lower than the GW SOF values, and the IHI pathway does not drive risk for any disposal unit.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Using personal monitoring data to derive organ doses for medical radiation workers in the Million Person Study—considerations regarding NCRP Commentary no. 30

The study of low dose and low-dose rate exposure is of central importance in understanding the possible range of health effects from prolonged exposures to radiation. The One Million Person Study of Radiation Workers and Veterans (MPS) of low-dose health effects was designed to evaluate radiation risks among healthy American workers and veterans. The MPS is evaluating low-dose and dose-rate effects, intakes of radioactive elements, cancer and non-cancer outcomes, as well as differences in risks between women and men. Medical radiation workers make up a large group of individuals occupationally exposed to low doses of radiation from external x-ray/gamma exposures. For the MPS, about 100 000 United States medical radiation workers have been selected for study. The approach to the complex dosimetry circumstances for such workers over three to four decades of occupation were initially and broadly described in National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) Report No. 178. NCRP Commentary No. 30 provides more detail and describes an optimum approach for using personal monitoring data to estimate lung and other organ doses applicable to the cohort and provides specific precautions/considerations applicable to the dosimetry of medical radiation worker organ doses for use in epidemiologic studies. The use of protective aprons creates dosimetric complexity. It is recommended that dose values from dosimeters worn over a protective apron be reduced by a factor of 20 for estimating mean organ doses to tissues located in the torso and that 15% of the marrow should be assumed to remain unshielded for exposure scenarios when aprons are worn. Conversion coefficients relating personal dose equivalent, H p (10) in mSv, to mean absorbed doses to organs and tissues, D T in mGy, for females and males for six exposure scenarios have been determined and presented for use in the MPS. This Memorandum summarises several key points in NCRP Commentary No. 30.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗