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At least 109 records · Page 6

Electric Utility Distribution Costs: Scoping Study on Trends, Drivers, and Possible Response Strategies [Slides]

This scoping study synthesizes information that will help stakeholders understand the scope, scale, and drivers of recent increases in investor-owned utility (IOU) expenditures on local distribution power grids, while providing regulators and other decision-makers with potential strategies to keep electricity bills down. The study includes five distinct components. Drawing first on data from FERC Form 1, it summarizes key trends in past and recent IOU distribution costs. Next, through a review of a sample of distribution-system plans, it characterizes material drivers of planned distribution expenditures. Ultimately, regulators must approve cost recovery for IOU expenditures, including those for the distribution system. The study therefore also: examines trends in utility requests and regulatory approvals related to changes in retail rates and return on equity; identifies areas where utility shareholder and customer incentives may be misaligned; and develops a menu of options that state regulators might consider to optimize distribution system expenditures. Some of the key findings include: - IOU distribution spending at a national level has grown by 6%/yr since 2014 in real dollar terms, 4x faster than in the prior 20 years and consisting mostly of capital (not operating) expenditure. - On a per-kWh basis, increases in IOU distribution costs since 2014 represent over 30% of the overall national-average increase in retail electricity rates. - Regional spending growth has ranged from 2-8%/yr, with larger estimated rate impacts in CAISO, then NYISO & ISO-NE, and then the Southeast, MISO & PJM (see figure). - Some utilities are planning for significantly increased distribution system spending. Planned spending on managing the existing system (asset replacement, safety & reliability, and resilience are all important drivers) exceeds that for capacity expansion. - IOU rate increase requests ($18 billion in 2025) and public utility commission (PUC) approval levels (average of 64% of requested amounts from 2021-2025) have recently hit multi-decadal highs. - PUCs in New England and the Southeast have recently approved a greater fraction of rate requests (>75%, on average) than in ther regions, while PUCs in California and the Southeast have generally authorized higher equity returns than in other regions. - Regulators have many tools to tackle potential misalignments between utility and customer interests and, more specifically, to optimize and reduce distribution costs. Shorter-term options include those related to return on equity, capital structure, depreciation, trackers, construction work in progress, and securitization. Longer-term options include performance-based regulation and a wide variety of planning-related requirements. All options embed important tradeoffs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The relative importance of wind and hydroclimate drivers in modulating the interannual variability of dust emissions in Earth system models

Windblown dust emissions are controlled by near-surface wind speed and sediment erodibility, the latter modulated by hydroclimate and land-use conditions. Accurate representations of these drivers are critical for reproducing historical dust variability and projecting future dust changes in Earth system models (ESMs). This study examines the discrepancies among 21 ESMs in the relative importance of wind speed versus five hydroclimate drivers in explaining the historical (1980–2014) variability of dust emissions from global drylands. In hyperarid areas, models show poor agreement in the simulated dust variability, with only 9 % out of 210 inter-model comparisons exhibiting significant positive correlations. In contrast, arid and semiarid areas exhibit a dual pattern driven by a “double-edged sword” effect of land surface memory: models with coherent hydroclimate variability show better agreement, whereas those with divergent hydroclimate representations show larger disagreement. While the ESMs capture the dominant role of wind speed in hyperarid areas, they diverge markedly in the relative contributions of wind and hydroclimate drivers in arid and semiarid areas. Replacing the Zender et al. (2003) dust scheme with the Kok et al. (2014) scheme in CESM and E3SM generally strengthens hydroclimate influences while reducing wind speed contributions to simulated dust variability. MERRA-2 reanalysis produces stronger wind influences than most ESMs across all dryland regions. These results underscore the need for improved near-surface wind simulations in hyperarid areas and more realistic land surface and hydroclimate representations in arid and semiarid areas to reduce uncertainties in global dust emission simulations.

Li, Xinzhu [Michigan Technological University, Hou↗

The measurement of driver describing functions in simulated steering control tasks

Measurements of driver describing functions in steering control tasks have been made using a driving simulator. The task was to regulate against a random crosswind gust input on a straight roadway, in order to stay in the center of the lane. Although driving is a multiloop task in general, the forcing function and situation were configured so that an inner-loop visual cue feedback of heading angle of heading rate would dominate, and the driver's response was interpreted to be primarily single-loop. The driver describing functions were measured using an STI describing function analyzer. Three replications for each subject showed good repeatability within a subject. There were some intersubject differences as expected, but the crossover frequencies, effective time delays, and stability margins were generally consistent with the prior data and models for similar manual control tasks. The results further confirm the feasibility of measuring human operator response properties in nominal control tasks with full (real-world) visual field displays.

Weir, D. H.↗

Selection of shuttle payload data processing drivers for the data system new technology study

An investigation of all payloads in the IBM disciplines and the selection of driver payloads within each discipline are described. The driver payloads were selected on the basis of their data processing requirements. These requirements are measured by a weighting scheme. The total requirements for each discipline are estimated by use of the technology payload model. The driver selection process which was both a payload by payload comparison and a comparison of expected groupings of payloads was examined.

Source record↗

The effects of alcohol on driver performance in a decision making situation

The results are reviewed of driving simulator and in-vehicle field test experiments of alcohol effects on driver risk taking. The objective was to investigate changes in risk taking under alcoholic intoxication and relate these changes to effects on traffic safety. The experiments involved complex 15 minute driving scenarios requiring decision making and steering and speed control throughout a series of typical driving situations. Monetary rewards and penalties were employed to simulate the real-world motivations inherent in driving. A full placebo experimental design was employed, and measures related to traffic safety, driver/vehicle performance and driver behavior were obtained. Alcohol impairment was found to increase the rate of accidents and speeding tickets. Behavioral measures showed these traffic safety effects to be due to impaired psychomotor performance and perceptual distortions. Subjective estimates of risk failed to show any change in the driver's willingness to take risks when intoxicated.

Allen, R. W.↗

A decision model applied to alcohol effects on driver signal light behavior

A decision model including perceptual noise or inconsistency is developed from expected value theory to explain driver stop and go decisions at signaled intersections. The model is applied to behavior in a car simulation and instrumented vehicle. Objective and subjective changes in driver decision making were measured with changes in blood alcohol concentration (BAC). Treatment levels averaged 0.00, 0.10 and 0.14 BAC for a total of 26 male subjects. Data were taken for drivers approaching signal lights at three timing configurations. The correlation between model predictions and behavior was highly significant. In contrast to previous research, analysis indicates that increased BAC results in increased perceptual inconsistency, which is the primary cause of increased risk taking at low probability of success signal lights.

Schwartz, S. H.↗

A control theoretic model of driver steering behavior

A quantitative description of driver steering behavior such as a mathematical model is presented. The steering task is divided into two levels: (1) the guidance level involving the perception of the instantaneous and future course of the forcing function provided by the forward view of the road, and the response to it in an anticipatory open-loop control mode; (2) the stabilization level whereby any occuring deviations from the forcing function are compensated for in a closed-loop control mode. This concept of the duality of the driver's steering activity led to a newly developed two-level model of driver steering behavior. Its parameters are identified on the basis of data measured in driving simulator experiments. The parameter estimates of both levels of the model show significant dependence on the experimental situation which can be characterized by variables such as vehicle speed and desired path curvature.

Donges, E.↗

Mass Driver Two - Cryogenic module

The cryogenic module of Mass Driver Two comprises a 3.25 inch (82.55 mm) OD bucket with two 44 kilo-ampere-turn coils made with .028 inch (.71 mm) diam niobium-titanium multi-filamentary cable in a copper matrix, impregnated with lead alloy for thermal inertia, as well as the service station to refrigerate, energize and eject the bucket. The station is housed in a six inch flanged pyrex cross which connects to the four inch pyrex tube of the mass driver itself. The bucket is refrigerated by being forced against a copper braid cradle attached to the bottom of a liquid helium reservoir which protrudes into the cross from above. The bucket is energized inductively by turning off two superconducting coils which are also attached to the helium reservoir, and which have maintained the correct flux linkage through the bucket coils during their cool-down through the critical temperature. Once charging is completed, the clamping pressure is released and the bucket is injected into the mass driver by means of two normal-conductor pulse coils surrounding the horizontal branches of the cross.

Fine, K.↗

Ablation and deceleration of mass-driver launched projectiles for space disposal of nuclear wastes

The energy cost of launching a projectile containing nuclear waste is two orders of magnitude lower with a mass driver than with a typical rocket system. A mass driver scheme will be feasible, however, only if ablation and deceleration are within certain tolerable limits. It is shown that if a hemisphere-cylinder-shaped projectile protected thermally with a graphite nose is launched vertically to attain a velocity of 17 km/sec at an altitude of 40 km, the mass loss from ablation during atmospheric flight will be less than 0.1 ton, provided the radius of the projectile is under 20 cm and the projectile's mass is of the order of 1 ton. The velocity loss from drag will vary from 0.4 to 30 km/sec, depending on the mass and radius of the projectile, the smaller velocity loss corresponding to large mass and small radius. Ablation is always within a tolerable range for schemes using a mass driver launcher to dispose of nuclear wastes outside the solar system. Deceleration can also be held in the tolerable range if the mass and diameter of the projectile are properly chosen.

Park, C.↗

Analysis of driver performance under reduced visibility

Mathematical models describing vehicle dynamics as well as human behavior may be useful in evaluating driver performance and in establishing design criteria for vehicles more compatible with man. In 1977, a two level model of driver steering behavior was developed, but its parameters were identified for clear visibility conditions only. Since driver performance degrades under conditions of reduced visibility, e.g., fog, the two level model should be investigated to determine its applicability to such conditions. The data analysis of a recently performed driving simulation experiment showed that the model still performed reasonably well under fog conditions, although there was a degradation in its predictive capacity during fog. Some additional parameters affecting anticipation and lag time may improve the model's performance for reduced visibility conditions.

Kaeppler, W. D.↗

Plasma properties of driver gas following interplanetary shocks observed by ISEE-3

Plasma fluid parameters calculated from solar wind and magnetic field data to determine the characteristic properties of driver gas following a select subset of interplanetary shocks were studied. Of 54 shocks observed from August 1978 to February 1980, 9 contained a well defined driver gas that was clearly identifiable by a discontinuous decrease in the average proton temperature. While helium enhancements were present downstream of the shock in all 9 of these events, only about half of them contained simultaneous changes in the two quantities. Simultaneous with the drop in proton temperature the helium and electron temperature decreased abruptly. In some cases the proton temperature depression was accompanied by a moderate increase in magnetic field magnitude with an unusually low variance, by a small decrease in the variance of the bulk velocity, and by an increase in the ratio of parallel to perpendicular temperature. The cold driver gas usually displayed a bidirectional flow of suprathermal solar wind electrons at higher energies.

Zwickl, R. D.↗

Thermally Activated Driver

Space-qualified, precise, large-force, thermally activated driver (TAD) developed for use in space on astro-physics experiment to measure abundance of rare actinide-group elements in cosmic rays. Actinide cosmic rays detected using thermally activated driver as heart of event-thermometer (ET) system. Thermal expansion and contraction of silicone oil activates driver. Potential applications in fluid-control systems where precise valve controls are needed.

Kinard, William H.↗

Solar wind iron charge states preceding a driver plasma

Iron and silicon/sulfur charge state and velocity measurements and iron density measurements in the shocked solar wind which preceded the flare-related driver plasma observed on September 29, 1978 by ISEE 3 are reported. Given the assumption that the driver plasma is magnetically isolated from the ambient solar wind, the contact surface separating these two plasma regimes is expected to form an distinct boundary in the charge state composition. Instead, an apparent transition in the ionization state of the shocked solar wind from ambient solar wind values to those typical of the driver plasma is observed. This result may reflect X-ray ionization of the solar wind plasma near the flare site.

Galvin, A. B.↗

A programmable CCD driver circuit for multiphase CCD operation

A programmable CCD (charge-coupled device) driver circuit was designed to drive CCDs in multiphased modes. The purpose of the drive electronics is to operate developmental CCD imaging arrays for NASA's tiltable moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS-T). Five objectives for the driver were considered during its design: (1) the circuit drives CCD electrode voltages between 0 V and +30 V to produce reasonable potential wells, (2) the driving sequence is started with one input signal, (3) the driving sequence is started with one input signal, (4) the circuit allows programming of frame sequences required by arrays of any size, (5) it produces interfacing signals for the CCD and the DTF (detector test facility). Simulation of the driver verified its function with the master clock running up to 10 MHz. This suggests a maximum rate of 400,000 pixels/s. Timing and packaging parameters were verified. The design uses 54 TTL (transistor-transistor logic) chips. Two versions of hardware were fabricated: wirewrap and printed circuit board. Both were verified functionally with a logic analyzer.

Ewin, Audrey J.↗

Operational cost drivers

To be economically viable, the operations cost of launch vehicles must be reduced by an order of magnitude as compared to the Space Transportation System (STS). A summary of propulsion-related operations cost drivers derived from a two-year study of Shuttle ground operations is presented. Examples are given of the inordinate time and cost of launch operations caused by propulsion systems designs that did not adequately consider impacts on prelaunching processing. Typical of these cost drivers are those caused by central hydraulic systems, storable propellants, gimballed engines, multiple propellants, He and N2 systems and purges, hard starts, high maintenance turbopumps, accessibility problems, and most significantly, the use of multiple, nonintegrated RCS, OMS, and main propulsion systems. Recovery and refurbishment of SRBs have resulted in expensive crash and salvage operations. Vehicle system designers are encouraged to be acutely aware of these cost drivers and to incorporate solutions (beginning with the design concepts) to avoid business as usual and costs as usual.

Scholz, Arthur L.↗

Using a graphical programming language to write CAMAC/GPIB instrument drivers

To reduce the complexities of conventional programming, graphical software was used in the development of instrumentation drivers. The graphical software provides a standard set of tools (graphical subroutines) which are sufficient to program the most sophisticated CAMAC/GPIB drivers. These tools were used and instrumentation drivers were successfully developed for operating CAMAC/GPIB hardware from two different manufacturers: LeCroy and DSP. The use of these tools is presented for programming a LeCroy A/D Waveform Analyzer.

Zambrana, Horacio↗

Prediction of large North-South IMF component events occurring in driver gas

An approach for identifying a driver gas-associated Bz event and its solar source is introduced. Seven newly identified events are used to further test the model developed by Hoeksema and Zhao (1991) for prediction of the magnetic orientation of some driver gas-associated Bz events from photospheric field observations. Comparison of the model predictions with observations confirms that the model may be appropriate only for driver gas-associated Bz events which have magnetic structures lacking large internal field rotation and are associated with active region-CMEs.

Zhao, X.↗

Technique and applications of device driver dynamic loading

This paper discusses the techniques and feasibility of dynamically loading device drivers for the real-time operating system of the Space Station Freedom Data Management System. The rationale and advantages of device driver dynamic loading are discussed and the procedures are analyzed. A prototype program is implemented to demonstrate the feasibility and to simplify the procedure of device driver dynamic loading for the Space Station Freedom Program.

Liu, Yuan-Kwei↗