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DOE OSTI2023

Dispersal, habitat filtering, and eco-evolutionary dynamics as drivers of local and global wetland viral biogeography

Abstract Wetlands store 20–30% of the world’s soil carbon, and identifying the microbial controls on these carbon reserves is essential to predicting feedbacks to climate change. Although viral infections likely play important roles in wetland ecosystem dynamics, we lack a basic understanding of wetland viral ecology. Here 63 viral size-fraction metagenomes (viromes) and paired total metagenomes were generated from three time points in 2021 at seven fresh- and saltwater wetlands in the California Bodega Marine Reserve. We recovered 12,826 viral population genomic sequences (vOTUs), only 4.4% of which were detected at the same field site two years prior, indicating a small degree of population stability or recurrence. Viral communities differed most significantly among the seven wetland sites and were also structured by habitat (plant community composition and salinity). Read mapping to a new version of our reference database, PIGEONv2.0 (515,763 vOTUs), revealed 196 vOTUs present over large geographic distances, often reflecting shared habitat characteristics. Wetland vOTU microdiversity was significantly lower locally than globally and lower within than between time points, indicating greater divergence with increasing spatiotemporal distance. Viruses tended to have broad predicted host ranges via CRISPR spacer linkages to metagenome-assembled genomes, and increased SNP frequencies in CRISPR-targeted major tail protein genes suggest potential viral eco-evolutionary dynamics in response to both immune targeting and changes in host cell receptors involved in viral attachment. Together, these results highlight the importance of dispersal, environmental selection, and eco-evolutionary dynamics as drivers of local and global wetland viral biogeography.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Contributions to Polar Amplification in CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

As a step towards understanding the fundamental drivers of polar climate change, we evaluate contributions to polar warming and its seasonal and hemispheric asymmetries in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) as compared with CMIP5. CMIP6 models broadly capture the observed pattern of surface- and winter-dominated Arctic warming that has outpaced both tropical and Antarctic warming in recent decades. For both CMIP5 and CMIP6, CO 2 quadrupling experiments reveal that the lapse-rate and surface albedo feedbacks contribute most to stronger warming in the Arctic than the tropics or Antarctic. The relative strength of the polar surface albedo feedback in comparison to the lapse-rate feedback is sensitive to the choice of radiative kernel, and the albedo feedback contributes most to intermodel spread in polar warming at both poles. By separately calculating moist and dry atmospheric heat transport, we show that increased poleward moisture transport is another important driver of Arctic amplification and the largest contributor to projected Antarctic warming. Seasonal ocean heat storage and winter-amplified temperature feedbacks contribute most to the winter peak in warming in the Arctic and a weaker winter peak in the Antarctic. In comparison with CMIP5, stronger polar warming in CMIP6 results from a larger surface albedo feedback at both poles, combined with less-negative cloud feedbacks in the Arctic and increased poleward moisture transport in the Antarctic. However, normalizing by the global-mean surface warming yields a similar degree of Arctic amplification and only slightly increased Antarctic amplification in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

Abstract This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2023

Asymptotic hydrogen redistribution analysis in yttrium-hydride-moderated heat-pipe-cooled microreactors using DireWolf

Yttrium hydride (YH x ) is one of the materials being considered for moderating thermal and epithermal nuclear microreactors. One potential issue with YH x use is that the hydrogen redistributes in the hydride when thermal and concentration gradients are present. This hydrogen redistribution leads to spatial gradients in the hydrogen concentration, thus affecting neutron transport in the reactor. Here, by building upon observations in prior works, this paper aims to gain a better understanding of the reactivity feedback associated with such hydrogen redistributions. In particular, we wish to understand the sign (+/–) of the hydrogen redistribution neutronic feedback, its order of magnitude, and its underlying physical causes. To achieve this goal, the DireWolf multiphysics software driver was used to solve the coupled radiation transport, heat transfer, heat pipe two-phase flow, and hydrogen redistribution equations for the Simplified Microreactor Benchmark Assessment (SiMBA) problem, a full-core microreactor numerical benchmark developed at Idaho National Laboratory.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aligning theoretical and empirical representations of soil carbon-to-nitrogen stoichiometry with process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models

Soil carbon-nitrogen (C:N) stoichiometry acts as a control over decomposition and soil organic matter formation and loss, making it a key soil property for understanding ecosystem dynamics and projected ecosystems responses to global environmental change. However, the controls of soil C:N and how they respond to increasing pressures from global change agents are not fully understood. The “foundational” controls on soil C:N, namely plant and microbial C:N, have been used to predict soil C:N, but fail to accurately simulate all ecosystems and may be insufficient for predictions under global environmental change. Here we present an “emerging” representation of controls of soil C:N that includes plant-microbe-mineral feedbacks that have been shown to regulate soil C:N. We argue that including representation of these emerging drivers in process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, which include biological N fixation, mycorrhizae, priming, root exudation of organic acids, and mineralogy (including soil texture, mineral composition, and aggregation), will improve mechanistic representation of soil C:N and associated processes. Such improvements will produce models that will better simulate a variety of ecological states and predict soil C:N when global changes modify plant-microbe-mineral interactions. Here, we align our empirical understanding of controls of soil C:N with those controls represented in models, identifying contexts where emerging drivers might be particularly important to represent (e.g., priming and root exudation in nutrient-limited conditions) and areas of future work. Additionally, we show that implementing emerging drivers of soil C:N results in different simulated outcomes at steady state and in response to elevated atmospheric CO2. Our review and preliminary simulations support the need to incorporate emerging drivers of soil C:N into process-based terrestrial biogeochemistry models, allowing for both theoretical exploration of mechanisms and potentially more accurate predictions of land biogeochemical responses to global change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1987

User engineering: A new look at system engineering

User Engineering is a new System Engineering perspective responsible for defining and maintaining the user view of the system. Its elements are a process to guide the project and customer, a multidisciplinary team including hard and soft sciences, rapid prototyping tools to build user interfaces quickly and modify them frequently at low cost, and a prototyping center for involving users and designers in an iterative way. The main consideration is reducing the risk that the end user will not or cannot effectively use the system. The process begins with user analysis to produce cognitive and work style models, and task analysis to produce user work functions and scenarios. These become major drivers of the human computer interface design which is presented and reviewed as an interactive prototype by users. Feedback is rapid and productive, and user effectiveness can be measured and observed before the system is built and fielded. Requirements are derived via the prototype and baselined early to serve as an input to the architecture and software design.

Mclaughlin, Larry L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A data-driven global soil heterotrophic respiration dataset and the drivers of its inter-annual variability

Soil heterotrophic respiration (SHR), one of the primary carbon fluxes from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere, is important for carbon-climate feedbacks because of its sensitivity to available litter and soil carbon, climatic conditions, and nutrient availability. However, until recently limited SHR data were available, and most published global SHR estimates have either a short time span, coarse spatial resolution, or reply on overly-simple model formulations. To better understand and quantify the global distribution of SHR and its sensitivity to climate variability, we produced a new global SHR dataset using Random Forest algorithms, up-scaling 455 point data from the Global Soil Respiration Database (SRDB 4.0) with gridded fields of climatic, edaphic and productivity as explanatory variables. We estimated a global total SHR of 46.8 Pg C yr-1 over 1985-2013 (95% confidence interval: 38.6-56.3 Pg C yr-1), with a significant increasing trend of 0.03 Pg C yr-2 during this period. We found that the choice of soil moisture datasets contributes more to the difference among these data-driven SHR members rather than that of productivity, temperature and precipitation data sources. We also analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of our SHR product. Water availability was the dominant driver of IAV at global scales, although the inferred sensitivity depends on the choice of the soil moisture gridded dataset. At the ecosystem scale, temperature strongly controls the IAV of SHR in tropical forests, while water availability dominates in extra-tropical forest and semi-arid regions. Our machine-learning gridded SHR dataset and outputs from process-based land surface models (TRENDYv6) show agreement for a strong association between water variability and SHR IAV at the global scale, but the two approaches lead to different temporal trend globally and different controlling variables for IAV at the ecosystem scale. Our study provides evidence for the pervasive and important role of water availability in driving SHR, indicating both a direct effect limiting decomposition rates and an indirect effect through the amount of fresh organic matter made available to SHR from productivity. In consideration of potential limitations and uncertainties remaining in our data-driven SHR datasets, we call for a more scientifically designed observation network for SHR, more observation data compilation, and increased use of deep learning methods making maximum use of observation data in hand. This will benefit process-based models, and improve our understanding of SHR response to future anomalous environmental conditions.

Yao, Yitong↗

DOE OSTI2026

Aerosol effective radiative forcing increases Earth’s energy imbalance in recent decades

Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), a key driver of climate change, has risen markedly over the last two decades. Greenhouse gas forcing, aerosol forcing, and cloud feedback all contribute to this increase. However, the role of aerosol forcing, particularly effective radiative forcing through aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF ACI ), remains highly uncertain and closely intertwined with cloud feedback. Here, we estimate shortwave ERF ACI using satellite observations and show its importance as a contributor to the EEI increase between 2003 and 2023. ERF ACI exhibits a significant increasing trend of 0.33 Wm −2 /decade averaged over oceans between 60°S and 60°N. The increasing trend of ERF ACI stems from a global decline in cloud droplet number concentration driven by decreasing anthropogenic aerosol emissions. It is of similar magnitude as the combined instantaneous forcing trend from greenhouse gases and aerosol-radiation interactions. Our results may reduce the gap between the simulated and observed shortwave contribution to EEI trends while implying a weak shortwave cloud feedback. They also suggest a stronger aerosol forcing than the multi-model mean.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) 2024 Workshop Report

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is to improve the understanding and representation of cloud and aerosol processes and their interaction with the Earth's surface in Earth system models (ESMs) by providing comprehensive field observations and supporting advanced data analytics. The ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) was chartered in March 2019 to help improve the performance and scientific impact of ARM measurements of clouds and precipitation. The group aims to identify and address gaps in measurement capabilities, maximize the scientific impact of ARM data, and effectively serve the scientific community. To achieve these goals, the group includes experts in cloud and precipitation science, as well as representatives from ARM infrastructure, including instrument mentors, engineers, data quality officers, and data product translators. Prior to CPMSG, early discussions on cloud and precipitation measurements primarily focused on improving radar systems, but have since evolved to include a broader scope involving radiometers and other instruments. Since its formation, the CPMSG has gathered feedback using science traceability matrices. CPMSG aims to keep these as living documents to show the measurement needs, scientific drivers, roadblocks, maturity of measurements and retrievals, and pathways to model improvements. The group meets quarterly to discuss and prioritize measurement and operational improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) 2024 Workshop Report

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

ARM Cloud and Precipitation Measurements and Science Group (CPMSG) 2024 Workshop Report

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Exploring Carbon Mineral Systems: Recent Advances in C Mineral Evolution, Mineral Ecology, and Network Analysis

Large and growing data resources on the spatial and temporal diversity and distribution of the more than 400 carbon-bearing mineral species reveal patterns of mineral evolution and ecology. Recent advances in analytical and visualization techniques leverage these data and are propelling mineralogy from a largely descriptive field into one of prediction within complex, integrated, multidimensional systems. These discoveries include: (1) systematic changes in the character of carbon minerals and their networks of coexisting species through deep time; (2) improved statistical predictions of the number and types of carbon minerals that occur on Earth but are yet to be discovered and described; and (3) a range of proposed and ongoing studies related to the quantification of network structures and trends, relation of mineral “natural kinds” to their genetic environments, prediction of the location of mineral species across the globe, examination of the tectonic drivers of mineralization through deep time, quantification of preservational and sampling bias in the mineralogical record, and characterization of feedback relationships between minerals and geochemical environments with microbial populations. These aspects of Earth’s carbon mineralogy underscore the complex coevolution of the geosphere and biosphere and highlight the possibility for scientific discovery in Earth and planetary systems.

Carbon↗

DOE OSTI2015

Rhizosphere processes are quantitatively important components of terrestrial carbon and nutrient cycles

Abstract While there is an emerging view that roots and their associated microbes actively alter resource availability and soil organic matter ( SOM ) decomposition, the ecosystem consequences of such rhizosphere effects have rarely been quantified. Using a meta‐analysis, we show that multiple indices of microbially mediated C and nitrogen (N) cycling, including SOM decomposition, are significantly enhanced in the rhizospheres of diverse vegetation types. Then, using a numerical model that combines rhizosphere effect sizes with fine root morphology and depth distributions, we show that root‐accelerated mineralization and priming can account for up to one‐third of the total C and N mineralized in temperate forest soils. Finally, using a stoichiometrically constrained microbial decomposition model, we show that these effects can be induced by relatively modest fluxes of root‐derived C, on the order of 4% and 6% of gross and net primary production, respectively. Collectively, our results indicate that rhizosphere processes are a widespread, quantitatively important driver of SOM decomposition and nutrient release at the ecosystem scale, with potential consequences for global C stocks and vegetation feedbacks to climate.

Finzi, Adrien C.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Hydrogen Energy Storage: Grid and Transportation Services (Technical Report)

Proceedings of an expert workshop convened by the U.S. Department of Energy and Industry Canada, and hosted by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the California Air Resources Board, May 14-15, 2014, in Sacramento, California, to address the topic of hydrogen energy storage (HES). HES systems provide multiple opportunities to increase the resilience and improve the economics of energy sup supply systems underlying the electric grid, gas pipeline systems, and transportation fuels. This is especially the case when considering particular social goals and market drivers, such as reducing carbon emissions, increasing reliability of supply, and reducing consumption of conventional petroleum fuels. This report compiles feedback collected during the workshop, which focused on policy and regulatory issues related to HES systems. Report sections include an introduction to HES pathways, market demand, and the "smart gas" concept; an overview of the workshop structure; and summary results from panel presentations and breakout groups.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

GCAM v4.3 SSP-RCP-GCM Output Products

Supplemental dataset to: Graham N.T., M.I. Hejazi, M. Chen, E. Davies, J.A. Edmonds, S.H. Kim, and S. Turner, et al. 2020. "Humans drive future water scarcity changes across all Shared Socioeconomic Pathways." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 1:Article No. 014007. PNNL-SA-151297. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab639b This analysis makes deterministic classifications of how, when water resources are limited and constrained, the human and climate systems interact. The relative effects of both systems on water scarcity are quantified at global and basin scales across 15 global futures that include five different socioeconomic conditions (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, SSPs) and four different climatic conditions (the Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). These 15 scenarios are used to first analyze a 'Human Alone' component by isolating the human impact on future scarcity. This is accomplished by holding all climate variables to their 2005 levels while altering socioeconomic growth and technological change. General circulation model (GCM) derived climate impacts for five models are applied to establish 75 'Human and Climate' scenarios which allows for the quantification of climate impacts. Climatic impacts to water supply, agricultural productivity and change, hydropower availability, and building energy demands are applied from 5 different bias-corrected GCMs to make a suite of 75 climate runs. By subtracting the human derived impacts from the 'Human Alone' scenarios, from the 'Human and Climate' scenarios the climate impact is isolated. First, the drivers of future water scarcity are evaluated by isolating the impacts that both humans and climate have while accounting for feedbacks between humans, energy, and land. Secondly, the simultaneous impacts that human and climate systems have on water scarcity are analyzed by determining whether each system is increasing or decreasing scarcity in all global water basins. Below we describe the GCAM model, the scenario components, climate derived impacts, and the calculations of scarcity changes and attribution. This study uses the global change assessment model (GCAM), with inclusions of water constraints to both renewable and nonrenewable sources of water, to investigate the relative contributions of climate and human systems on water scarcity regionally and globally under a wide range of scenarios. GCAM links socioeconomics, the energy system, land-use change, climate, and the water sector. GCAM is a market-equilibrium model that allows for prices to be adjusted within each time step to ensure that the supply and demand of goods and services remains equilibrated at each time step allowing for simultaneous market clearing across sectors. This study accounts for a limited supply of water by employing cost resource curves across all 235 basins that follow a logit formulation to determine the share of each water source (renewable surface water, nonrenewable groundwater, and desalinated water) needed to meet the water demands within all basins. As depletion of various water sources increases the extraction price increases, which leads to compounding price increases on the goods and services that require higher-priced water sources.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2018

Detecting Early Warning Signals of Tree Mortality in Boreal North America Using Multiscale Satellite Data

Increasing tree mortality from global change drivers such as drought and biotic infestations is a widespread phenomenon, including in the boreal zone where climate changes and feedbacks to the Earth system are relatively large. Despite the importance for science and management communities, our ability to forecast tree mortality at landscape to continental scales is limited. However, two independent information streams have the potential to inform and improve mortality forecasts: repeat forest inventories and satellite remote sensing. Time series of tree-level growth patterns indicate that productivity declines and related temporal dynamics often precede mortality years to decades before death. Plot-level productivity, in turn, has been related to satellite-based indices such as the Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Here we link these two data sources to show that early warning signals of mortality are evident in several NDVI-based metrics up to 24 years before death. We focus on two repeat forest inventories and three NDVI products across western boreal North America where productivity and mortality dynamics are influenced by periodic drought. These data sources capture a range of forest conditions and spatial resolution to highlight the sensitivity and limitations of our approach. Overall, results indicate potential to use satellite NDVI for early warning signals of mortality. Relationships are broadly consistent across inventories, species, and spatial resolutions, although the utility of coarse-scale imagery in the heterogeneous aspen parkland was limited. Longer-term NDVI data and annually remeasured sites with high mortality levels generate the strongest signals, although we still found robust relationships at sites remeasured at a typical 5 year frequency. The approach and relationships developed here can be used as a basis for improving forest mortality models and monitoring systems.

heat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kansas City, Missouri, Streetlight Electric Vehicle Charging: Strategies and challenges for site selection of streetlight electric vehicle infrastructure in Kansas City, Missouri (Final Report)

Public streetlight charging, whether on streets in central business districts or residential areas, provides easy charging access for apartment residents and homeowners alike. While most electric vehicle (EV) drivers charge at home, they do so in garages or on driveways they own. For renters and residents of multifamily housing (MFH), however, this may not be an option. EVs have a lower cost of ownership compared to conventional vehicles, and a used EV may be an affordable option for a lower-income household. But without easy access to charging, even a low-cost used EV may not be an option for a prospective buyer. An affordable curbside charging network has the potential to expand EV adoption into neighborhoods that have to date seen minimal interest and uptake of the technology and associated charging infrastructure. Streetlight charging networks can provide an economical, scalable, and effective approach to providing equitable and convenient charging. Metropolitan Energy Center (MEC) is dedicated to the mission of creating resource efficiency, environmental health, and economic vitality in the Kansas City region and beyond. Since 1983, MEC has provided resources, outreach, and training to make alternative fuels and energy efficiency commonplace. MEC led a streetlight charging pilot project that installed limited EV charging infrastructure on the streetlight system in Kansas City, Missouri, to demonstrate and test the benefits of curbside charging for EVs at existing on-street parking locations. The project aimed to cost-effectively expand the charging network in Kansas City to support residential charging and provide infrastructure in one or more charging deserts throughout the city. This pilot evaluates the impact and overall success of streetlight charging based on community feedback, utilization of charging infrastructure, technical feasibility, and cost. The project has pursued a data- and community-driven site selection process designed to identify sites with high demand and high opportunity for EV charging. This project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and awarded to MEC through a competitive proposal process. The novelty and complexity of this project required an organization that could facilitate collaboration across levels of government, community members, and industry partners. For the past 25 years, through Kansas City Regional Clean Cities, MEC has worked with numerous public and private fleets on a variety of projects to improve the environmental performance and efficiency of the regional vehicle fleet. To advance affordable, efficient, and clean transportation efforts, DOE Clean Cities and Communities coalitions create local networks of public and private sector stakeholders and engage communities. Rooted within their local communities, the coalitions serve as experts and ambassadors, bringing to bear the collective knowledge, experience, and practical know-how of the entire network from within DOE, its national laboratories, and diverse stakeholders in the field. MEC and its project partners made in-kind contributions to leverage federal dollars for the benefit of the Kansas City community. Findings from this project will help determine the best applications for streetlight charging technologies to maximize funding impact and serve community needs. The team evaluated locations based on expected charging demand, technical feasibility, safety considerations, and enhanced charging network siting needs. Throughout the project, the team gathered feedback and evaluated ways to make public charging for EVs available to all community members. The insights will help Kansas City and other communities streamline future efforts to support EV drivers through public charging in the city right-of-way. Furthermore, this project will inform citywide guidance for future installations. MEC is committed to a transparent and publicly accessible approach that encourages the collaborative evaluation of streetlight charging. The project has engaged the community to proactively identify and evaluate the benefits and impacts of streetlight charging. It was a priority for the project to ensure the benefits of this pilot are distributed equitably to all members of the Kansas City community and that new charging opportunities and associated resources are available in diverse neighborhoods across the city. The charging infrastructure supports an affordable curbside charging network that will enable more drivers to choose EVs and provide easy charging access for all community members interested in driving an EV. The community feedback received through this project informed future resources and opportunities to make EVs more accessible to all members of the Kansas City community. MEC worked with several community partners on this project, including Missouri University of Science and Technology (MST), Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL); the city of Kansas City, Missouri; Evergy; Black and McDonald (B&M); LilyPad EV; EVNoire; and Westside Housing Organization (WHO). Project partners contributed to the cost match required for DOE grants through capital expenditures, personnel, and other in-kind contributions. Detailed descriptions of project team organizations can be found in Appendix A. Project Partners. Analysts at NREL and MST/PennState developed site maps based on demand and equity considerations. MEC conducted outreach to community members to garner input on project design and site selection, and received approval from the Missouri Public Service Commission (PSC) for Evergy’s EV charging station ownership. MEC worked with all partners to gather additional siting criteria and developed a site selection evaluation checklist, and partners conducted site visits to proposed installation sites. Next, B&M, Evergy, and the city executed all site agreements, conducted site-specific engineering design, acquired associated permits, and issued notices to proceed site by site or in small batches. Finally, from January to April 2023, the project team installed 23 EV charging stations built on Kansas City’s streetlight system in six council districts. Evergy will own, operate, and monitor the stations for 10 years, sharing charging data with MEC for at least 1 year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projected changes in the terrestrial and oceanic regulators of climate variability across sub-Saharan Africa

Future changes in the sign and intensity of ocean–land–atmosphere interactions have been insufficiently studied, despite implications for regional climate change projections, extreme event statistics, and seasonal climate predictability. In response to this deficiency, the present study focuses on projected responses to the enhanced greenhouse effect in: (1) the mean state of the atmosphere and land surface; (2) oceanic and terrestrial drivers of sub-Saharan climate variability; and (3) total seasonal climate predictability of sub-Saharan Africa, a region known for its pronounced land–atmosphere coupling. Analysis focuses on output from 23 Earth System Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five for the late twentieth and twenty-first centuries. It is projected that the greatest warming across sub-Saharan Africa will occur over the Sahel, the monsoon season will become more persistent into late summer and autumn, short rains in the Horn of Africa (HOA) will intensify, and leaf area index will increase across the HOA. Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment, i.e. a multivariate statistical approach, is applied to the model output over sub-Saharan Africa in order to explore the oceanic and terrestrial drivers of regional climate. The models indicate that the study region’s climate variability is dominated by oceanic drivers, with secondary contributions from soil moisture and very modest impacts from vegetation. Overall, the general model consensus of future projections indicates a concerning diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate based on key oceanic and terrestrial predictors and an elevated role of the land surface (associated with soil moisture anomalies) compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗