Impacts of Synoptic‐Scale Dynamics on Clouds and Radiation in High Southern Latitudes
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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Modeling the Economic and Environmental Impacts of Land Scarcity Under Deep Uncertainty
Abstract Land scarcity is increasing over time, driven by complex multisector dynamics. The impacts of land scarcity on the economy and environment are multi‐faceted and regional, so any action to convert land will contain inherent tradeoffs. These impacts are complicated by the deeply uncertain evolution of the various sectors influencing land scarcity. A need therefore exists to provide multi‐metric and multi‐sector assessments that are robust to myriad uncertainties. Land conservation effectively limits the supply of productive land, while biofuel consumption increases the demand and competition for that land, and how these dynamics individually and jointly propagate to economic and environmental impacts is an important open question. To address this, we adopt the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) that has representations of various important systems including the climate, macroeconomic, energy, agriculture and land, and water resources systems. Various scenarios of increased land demand (from biofuels) and decreased land supply (from conservation) under various socioeconomic scenarios drawn from the SSPs were simulated using GCAM. We find that while biofuel consumption and land conservation reduce carbon emissions, this comes at the cost of higher food prices, reduced crop production, and increased water withdrawals. Additionally, some regions experience these tradeoffs more severely than others and are more heavily impacted from the same biofuel mandate or by an additional percent of protected land. These and other findings highlight the importance of multisector modeling frameworks that capture many cross‐sector linkages, and acknowledge the important uncertainties confronting the human‐Earth system when making any analysis of land scarcity impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Effects of Ionic Group Distribution on the Structure and Dynamics of Amorphous Polymer Melts
Ionizable groups tethered to a polymer backbone often associate to form ionic clusters, whose features are determined by the balance of the polymer backbone and electrostatics. These assemblies impact the dynamics of the macromolecules and their ability to transport ions. Here, using fully atomistic molecular dynamics (MD) simulations, we investigate the effects of the distribution of ionizable groups along the polymer backbone on cluster characteristics and the resulting impacts on the structure and dynamics of amorphous polymers. Particularly, we probe polystyrene sulfonates (PSS) with random, precise, and block configurations of the SO 3 – sulfonate groups along the backbone with Na + as the counterion. We find that the distribution of the ionic groups affects the shape and distribution of the clusters as well as the internal packing of the ionizable groups in the cluster and the number of unique chains that participate in each cluster, affecting the structure and the dynamics of the polymers. Furthermore, the signature of ionic clusters, observed in the static structure factor S(q) for all three distributions, is significantly more pronounced for the precise and blocky polymers compared to the random one. Remarkably, we find that the local mobility of the polymer segments is not only affected by the number and size of the clusters but also by the number of polymer chains associated with clusters.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Rewarding Grid-Friendly Behavior: Estimating the Potential Bill Reduction and Load Shifting Benefits of Dynamic Prices
Shifting electric load from times of peak demand can be a key strategy to slow price growth as reducing peak demand avoids the cost of upgrading generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure. Utilities are releasing time-varying prices, such as time of use rates or dynamic prices, to incentivize grid-friendly load shifting. New dynamic price programs provide insight into the true cost of operating electricity grids and the potential economic benefits of load shifting. Program developers and device manufacturers need to understand the economic opportunities in terms of 1) the variation in prices across hours, days, and seasons; 2) the change in utility bills for customers who don’t shift load; and 3) the potential load shifted and economic value of different technologies if manufacturers or aggregators deploy price-responsive controls. This paper estimates possible impacts of dynamic price adoption and load shifting controls if customers paid the dynamic rate from one pilot program. Statistical analysis of historical prices identified annual and seasonal metrics as well as representative price curves for each circuit in the pilot. Simulations for residential technologies with price-responsive controls including unitary heat pump water heaters, central multifamily heat pump water heaters, heating & cooling + storage systems, and pool pumps estimated the potential impacts of highly dynamic prices both with and without load shifting controls. Results showed the potential to reduce electricity costs on representative days by 42-94% and reduce consumption during times of high electricity prices by 63-100% compared to baseline operation for those flex-friendly devices.
Grant, Peter↗
Data Requirements for Application of Risk-Based Dynamic Contingency Analysis to Evaluate Hurricane Impact to Electrical Infrastructure in Puerto Rico
This paper presents a risk-based dynamic contingency analysis framework that was used to evaluate the hurricane impact to electrical infrastructure in Puerto Rico. PNNL developed a scalable risk-based framework for identifying high-voltage transmission resilience improvements by classifying and prioritizing high-risk power grid contingencies (system failures) under hurricane impact. The risk-based framework is founded on grid outage definitions with their associated probabilities of occurrence from hurricane events, in combination with an impact assessment derived from detailed dynamic cascading failure analysis. This paper focuses on a discussion around data requirements for transmission resilience planning for hurricane events, derived from the development of the risk-based framework and its application to Puerto Rico. This paper launches an important first step in encouraging the engineering community and power system industry to move towards establishing resilience planning as a routine practice. Since actual results for Puerto Rico contain sensitive information, sample simulation results will be used to illustrate the data requirements and risk-based dynamic cascading framework on the Puerto Rico power grid, as well as demonstrate the potential for such a simulation framework. The paper includes a discussion on the lessons learned, importance and need for improved datasets that are not usually considered in traditional power system planning. The paper will also elaborate on how the scalable simulation framework and datasets might be expanded to larger footprints and leveraged for modelling other types of natural disasters.
DCAT, Puerto Rico, hurricane, Power System Stabili↗
Emergent facilitation and glassy dynamics in supercooled liquids
In supercooled liquids, dynamical facilitation refers to a phenomenon where microscopic motion begets further motion nearby, resulting in spatially heterogeneous dynamics. This is central to the glassy relaxation dynamics of such liquids, which show super-Arrhenius growth of relaxation timescales with decreasing temperature. Despite the importance of dynamical facilitation, there is no theoretical understanding of how facilitation emerges and impacts relaxation dynamics. Here, we present a theory that explains the microscopic origins of dynamical facilitation. We show that dynamics proceeds by localized bond-exchange events, also known as excitations, resulting in the accumulation of elastic stresses with which new excitations can interact. At low temperatures, these elastic interactions dominate and facilitate the creation of new excitations near prior excitations. Using the theory of linear elasticity and Markov processes, we simulate a model, which reproduces multiple aspects of glassy dynamics observed in experiments and molecular simulations, including the stretched exponential decay of relaxation functions, the super-Arrhenius behavior of relaxation timescales as well as their two-dimensional finite-size effects. The model also predicts the subdiffusive behavior of the mean squared displacement (MSD) on short, intermediate timescales. Furthermore, we derive the phonon contributions to diffusion and relaxation, which when combined with the excitation contributions produce the two-step relaxation processes, and the ballistic–subdiffusive–diffusive crossover MSD behaviors commonly found in supercooled liquids.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
A Dynamic Pricing Method to Manage the Impact of EV Charging on the Grid Using RL
This work addresses the challenge of managing electrical vehicle (EV) charging loads on distribution feeders with the increase in deployment of fast charging stations. To mitigate the adverse impacts on feeder health, a novel dynamic grid-informed pricing approach is proposed. This approach leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to determine hourly charging prices based on real-time grid conditions. A synthetic environment was developed to train the reinforcement learning agent. A model of an IEEE 34-bus distribution feeder with EV charging stations has been developed in OpenDSS utilizing Caldera for realistic EV charging profiles. Test cases demonstrate that the dynamic pricing strategy achieves higher energy delivery to the EV end user at a lower cost compared to constant pricing methods, while lowering voltage deviations and congestion. This approach offers more granular price adjustments, responding dynamically to feeder conditions and potentially improving grid stability and efficiency. The communication architecture to implement this dynamic pricing method is described. This research contributes to the development of smart grid-informed charging solutions that can reduce the cost of charging to the end user while also helping the grid.
EV charging, dynamic pricing, grid-informed chargi↗
A dynamic pricing method to manage the impact of EV charging on the grid using RL
This work addresses the challenge of managing electrical vehicle (EV) charging loads on distribution feeders with the increase in deployment of fast charging stations. To mitigate the adverse impacts on feeder health, a novel dynamic grid-informed pricing approach is proposed. This approach leverages reinforcement learning (RL) to determine hourly charging prices based on real-time grid conditions. A synthetic environment was developed to train the reinforcement learning agent. A model of an IEEE 34-bus distribution feeder with EV charging stations has been developed in OpenDSS utilizing Caldera for realistic EV charging profiles. Test cases demonstrate that the dynamic pricing strategy achieves higher energy delivery to the EV end user at a lower cost compared to constant pricing methods, while lowering voltage deviations and congestion. This approach offers more granular price adjustments, responding dynamically to feeder conditions and potentially improving grid stability and efficiency. The communication architecture to implement this dynamic pricing method is described. This research contributes to the development of smart grid-informed charging solutions that can reduce the cost of charging to the end user while also helping the grid.
24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Historical global Earth System Model simulations with E3SM's dynamic root module
This data package contains global-scale Earth System Model simulations run with DOE's E3SM Model. The package includes one set of simulations run in the default configuration and a second set of simulations run with the dynamic root module enabled. These two datasets can be used to assess the impact that dynamic roots have on Land Surface fluxes such as carbon and water. The outputs are provided here on a 0.5 x 0.5 global grid at monthly resolution. The simulations were run with atmospheric forcing from the Global Soil Wetness Project. We provide specifically here Gross Primary Production, Transpiration, relative root fraction per soil layer as well as Air Temperature, Precipitation and all the parameterizations used for the simulations. Our purpose for generating and analyzing these simulations was to assess the role that root dynamics and foraging for water has in the recovery timescale of ecosystems following climate perturbation. All data provided are in the "netcdf" format using standard CF-1 (Climate and Forecast) Convention. The data are broken up into 20 year chunks to facilitate easier read-in. The data are all machine readable using various software platforms including Matlab, NCO, Panoply and GrADS.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dynamic PRA Methods to Evaluate the Impact on Accident Progression of Accident Tolerant Fuels
Accident tolerant fuels (ATFs) are new nuclear fuels developed in response to the accident at the Fukushima power station in March 2011. The goal of ATFs is to withstand accident scenarios through better performance compared to currently employed fuels (e.g., small-scale hydrogen generation). This paper targets a method for evaluating and comparing ATF performance from a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) perspective by employing a newly developed combination of event trees and dynamic PRA methods. Compared to classical PRA methods based on event trees and fault trees, dynamic PRA can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impacts of physics dynamics and the timing/sequencing of events on the accident progression without the need to introduce overly conservative modeling assumptions and success criteria. In this paper, we analyze the impact on the accident progression of three different cladding configurations for two initiating events [a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) and a station blackout (SBO)] by employing dynamic PRA methods. The goal is to compare the safety performance of ATFs (FeCrAl and Cr-coated cladding) and the currently employed Zr-based clad fuel. We employ two different strategies. The first focuses on the identification of success criteria discrepancies between the accident sequences generated by the classical PRA model and the set of simulation runs generated by dynamic PRA using ATF. The second one, on the other hand, directly uses dynamic PRA to evaluate the impact of timing of events (e.g., recovery actions) on accident progression. In conclusion, by applying these methods to the LB-LOCA and SBO initiating events, we show how dynamic PRA methods can provide analysts with detailed and quantitative information on the safety impact of ATFs.
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Recombination of Autodissociated Water Ions in a Nanoscale Pure Water Droplet
The recombination of water ions has diverse scientific and practical implications, ranging from acid-base chemistry and biological systems to planetary environments and applications in fuel cell and carbon conversion technologies. While spatial confinement affects the physicochemical properties of water dynamics, its impact on the recombination process has rarely been studied. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of water, the water ion distribution, and the ion recombination process in water droplets as a function of droplet size through molecular dynamics simulations and adaptive quantum mechanical/molecular mechanical calculations. We compare the dynamics of recombination in water droplet sizes ranging from 100 to 18 000 waters, both in their interiors and on their surfaces. We found that the self-diffusion of water dramatically decreases in droplets with a diameter below 2.2 nm. Using a classical RexPoN force-field, we found that the ions in 1000 H2O's spend almost 50% of the time on the surface and 0.5 nm beneath it with a slight preference for OH- ion to reside longer on the surface. We estimate that, on average, recombination in these drops occurs at 400 ps in 1000 H2O's and 1 ns in 3000 H2O's. We also found that recombination is not limited by the local structure of the surface or the size of the droplet but can be influenced by the geometry of the water wire connecting the ions as they approach each other, which can often prevent recombination. Our results provide insights to the reaction microenvironments presented by nanoscopic water droplets.
Kwon, Soonho↗
Virtual Dynamic Grid Impedance and Its Impacts on Harmonics and Stability of Inverter Based Resources Plant
Nowadays, a large number of inverter-based resources (IBRs) are integrated into the grid at a single connection point as an IBR plant. In this article, a virtual dynamic grid impedance concept is introduced to evaluate the harmonics and stability for grid integration of an IBR plant containing multiple IBRs. First, a detailed theoretical study is conducted to build a foundation of the virtual grid impedance concept, which is a dynamic impedance that changes with the number of IBRs added into an IBR plant. Then, based on the new virtual dynamic grid impedance concept, frequency spectrum analysis is performed to explore harmonic impact at the interconnection point for an IBR plant with IBRs having L, LC, and LCL filters, respectively. An electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulation model of a grid-connected IBR plant is developed to explore the harmonics and stability of the IBR plant connected to the grid as well as the reliable operation of IBRs within the plant from the novel virtual equivalent dynamic grid impedance point of view. Hardware experiments are conducted to validate the EMT simulation evaluation. The results show that the number of IBRs added into an IBR plant influences the grid impedance, i.e., grid strength, and the grid impedance variation has multiple impacts on the IBR plant and IBRs within the plant depending on the grid-connected filters of the IBRs.
grid impedance↗
Lagrangian-based simulations of hypervelocity impact experiments on Mars regolith proxy
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Impacts, numerical modeling, seismic↗
The influence of kinematics of deformation on polycrystalline halite dynamic recrystallization: Full-field simulation of simple shear versus pure shear
Rock salt, composed mainly of halite, flows viscoplastically over a wide range of geological conditions, strongly impacting the dynamic evolution of sedimentary basins and orogens. Understanding how dislocation creep, which involves dislocation glide, intracrystalline recovery and dynamic recrystallization, influences the microstructure and rheology of halite under various deformation kinematics and temperatures is crucial for enhancing knowledge of salt flow dynamics. Here, this study employs a full-field numerical simulation method to compare the viscoplastic deformation of polycrystalline halite under simple shear and pure shear conditions up to a natural strain of ε = 1.5 at temperatures ranging from 100 °C to 300 °C. The results are presented in terms of crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO), grain shape preferred orientation (SPO), subgrain boundary direction, grain size and strain rate distribution. The results indicate that the crystallographic anisotropy of individual halite crystals is transferred to the polycrystalline scale, resulting in strain localization, particularly in simple shear simulations. The kinematics of deformation affect the evolution and distribution of high strain-rate bands, determining the direction of intragranular substructures and the morphology of strain-induced grain boundaries, with minimal impact on grain size. The intensity of grain boundary migration increases with temperature, significantly influencing grain morphology and size, thereby obscuring strain localization, while having little effect on CPOs. At low strain (ε < 1.0), CPOs relative to both the maximum shortening direction and the grain SPO are similar regardless of the deformation kinematics. At high strain (ε > 1.0), simple shear CPOs exhibit three stronger {100} maxima with a monoclinic symmetry relative to the grain SPO compared to the six {100} maxima with an orthotropic symmetry relative to the grain SPO generated under pure shear. Therefore, microstructures and CPOs can serve as indicators of the strain path in polycrystalline halite under various conditions, aiding in determining the shear sense and elucidating the deformation kinematics of salt structures.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption
The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.
Dynamic Linear Model↗
Efficiency of bulk perovskite-sensitized upconversion: Illuminating matters
Photon upconversion via triplet–triplet annihilation could allow for the existing efficiency limit of single junction solar cells to be surpassed. Indeed, efficient upconversion at subsolar fluences has been realized in bulk perovskite-sensitized systems. Many questions have remained unanswered, in particular, regarding their behavior under photovoltaic operating conditions. Here, we investigate the impact of repeated and continuous illumination on bilayer perovskite/rubrene upconversion devices. We find that variations of the underlying perovskite carrier recombination dynamics greatly impact the upconversion process. Trap filling and triplet sensitization are in direct competition: more saturated trap states in the perovskite and, thus, longer underlying perovskite photoluminescence lifetimes allow for an increased number of carriers to diffuse to the perovskite/rubrene interface and undergo charge extraction to the triplet state of rubrene. As a result, the upconversion efficiency is greatly influenced by the underlying trap density: the upconverted photoluminescence intensity increases by two orders of magnitude under continuous illumination for 4 h. This shows that the upconversion efficiency is difficult to define for this system. Importantly, these results indicate that perovskite-sensitized upconversion devices exhibit peak performance under continuous illumination, which is a requirement for their successful integration into photovoltaics to help overcome the Shockley–Queisser limit in single junction solar cells.
VanOrman, Zachary A. (ORCID:000000027773012X)↗
Modeling and experimental validation of dynamical effects in Bragg coherent x-ray diffractive imaging of finite crystals
Bragg coherent diffractive imaging (BCDI) is a noninvasive microscopy technique that can visualize the shape and internal lattice deviations of crystals with nanoscale spatial resolution and picometer deformation sensitivity. Its strain imaging capability relies on Fourier transform–based iterative phase retrieval algorithms, which are mostly developed under the kinematical approximation. Such approximation prohibits the application of BCDI on larger crystals, which are commonly seen in most emerging functional materials. Understanding the dynamical effect in BCDI, as well as developing a validated method for modeling BCDI at the dynamical diffraction limit, is crucial for applying BCDI to hierarchical systems that contain micron-sized crystals and grains. Thus we report a comparative study on the impact of dynamical diffraction effects by comparing the reconstruction results from two measurements of the same crystal. Forward simulation is implemented to show subtle changes of interference fringes in the diffraction pattern due to the dynamical diffraction, and is compared directly with the experimental data.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
On the measurement of hardness at high strain rates by nanoindentation impact testing
Recent advances in electronics have enabled nanomechanical measurements with very low noise, fast time constants and high data acquisition rates. Furthermore, these capabilities open the door for a wide range of ultra-fast nanomechanical testing. Given the inherent dynamic nature of high-speed testing, a thorough understanding of the testing system's dynamics and electronics is extremely important for accurate measurements. In this work, an analytical framework that includes the mechanical and electronic contributions of the instrument and the material constitutive response is presented to provide guidelines for performing high strain rate measurements of hardness by nanoindentation testing. Simple closed-form solutions that provide insights on the choice of test methodology, test parameters and instrument design are presented along with the strain rate range over which accurate measurements can be performed with the commercially available nanoindenters.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗