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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 109 records · Page 6

Real-Time Sea State Estimation for Wave Energy Converter Control via Machine Learning

Wave energy converters (WECs) harness the untapped power of ocean waves to generate renewable energy, offering a promising solution to sustainable energy. An optimal WEC control strategy is essential to maximize power capture that dynamically adjusts system parameters in response to rapidly changing sea states. This study presents a novel control approach that leverages neural networks to estimate sea states from onboard WEC measurements such as position, velocity, and force. Using a point absorber WEC device as a test platform, our proposed approach estimates sea states in real-time and subsequently adjusts PID controller gains to maximize energy extraction. Simulation results across diverse sea conditions demonstrate that our strategy eliminates the need for external wave monitoring equipment while maintaining power capture efficiency. The results show that our neural network-based control technique can improve power capture by 25.6% while significantly reducing system complexity. This approach offers a practical alternative for WEC deployments where direct wave measurements are either infeasible or cost prohibitive.

PIDcontrol↗

Inference of neutrino flavor evolution through data assimilation and neural differential equations

The evolution of neutrino flavor in dense environments such as core-collapse supernovae and binary compact object mergers constitutes an important and unsolved problem. Its solution has potential implications for the dynamics and heavy-element nucleosynthesis in these environments. In this paper, we build upon recent work to explore inference-based techniques for the estimation of model parameters and neutrino flavor evolution histories. Here, we combine data assimilation, ordinary differential equation solvers, and neural networks to craft an inference approach tailored for nonlinear dynamical systems. Using this architecture, and a simple two-neutrino-beam, two-flavor model, we compare the performances of nine different optimization algorithms and expand upon previous assessments of the efficacy of inference for tackling problems in flavor evolution. We find that employing this new architecture, together with evolutionary optimization algorithms, accurately captures flavor histories in the small-scale model and allows us to quickly explore both model parameters and initial flavor content. In future work we plan to extend these inference techniques to large numbers of neutrinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Informational approach to cosmological parameter estimation

Here, we introduce a new approach for cosmological parameter estimation based on the information-theoretical Jensen-Shannon divergence ($\mathscr{D}$ JS ), calculating it for models in the restricted parameter space {H 0 , w 0 , w a }, where H 0 is the value of the Hubble constant today, and w 0 and w a are dark energy parameters, with the other parameters held fixed at their best-fit values from the Planck 2018 data. As an application, we investigate the H 0 tension between the Planck temperature power spectrum data (TT) and the local astronomical data by comparing the ΛCDM model with the wCDM and the w 0 w a CDM dynamic dark energy models. We find agreement with other works using the standard Bayesian inference for parameter estimation; in addition, we show that while the $\mathscr{D}$ JS is equally minimized for both values of H 0 along the (w 0 , w a ) plane, the lines of degeneracy are different for each value of H 0 . This allows for distinguishing between the two, once the value of either w 0 or w a is known.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Spatiotemporal video-domain high-fidelity simulation and realistic visualization of full-field dynamic responses of structures by a combination of high-spatial-resolution modal model and video motion manipulations

Structures with complex geometries, material properties, and boundary conditions exhibit spatially local dynamic behaviors. A high-spatial-resolution model of the structure is thus required for high-fidelity analysis, assessment, and prediction of the dynamic phenomena of the structure. The traditional approach is to build a highly refined finite element computer model for simulating and analyzing the structural dynamic phenomena based on detailed knowledge and explicit modeling of the structural physics such as geometries, materials properties, and boundary conditions. These physics information of the structure may not be available or accurately modeled in many cases, however. In addition, the simulation on the high-spatial-resolution structural model, with a massive number of degrees of freedom and system parameters, is computationally demanding. Here this study, on a proof-of-principle basis, proposes a novel alternative approach for spatiotemporal video-domain high-fidelity simulation and realistic visualization of full-field structural dynamics by an innovative combination of the fundamentals of structural dynamic modeling and the advanced video motion manipulation techniques. Specifically, a low-modal-dimensional yet high-spatial (pixel)-resolution (as many spatial points as the pixel number on the structure in the video frame) modal model is established in the spatiotemporal video domain with full-field modal parameters first estimated from line-of-sight video measurements of the operating structure. Then in order to simulate new dynamic response of the structure subject to a new force, the force is projected onto each modal domain, and the modal response is computed by solving each individual single-degree-of-freedom system in the modal domain. The simulated modal responses are then synthesized by the full-field mode shapes using modal superposition to obtain the simulated full-field structural dynamic response. Finally, the simulated structural dynamic response is embedded into the original video, replacing the original motion of the video, thus generating a new photo-realistic, physically accurate video that enables a realistic, high-fidelity visualization/animation of the simulated full-field vibration of the structure. Laboratory experiments are conducted to validate the proposed method, and the error sources and limitations in practical implementations are also discussed. Compared with high-fidelity finite element computer model simulations of structural dynamics, the video-based simulation method removes the need to explicitly model the structure's physics. In addition, the photo-realistic, physically accurate simulated video provides a realistic visualization/animation of the full-field structural dynamic response, which was not traditionally available. Lastly, these features of the proposed method should enable a new alternative to the traditional computer-aided finite element model simulation for high-fidelity simulating and realistically visualizing full-field structural dynamics in a relatively efficient and user-friendly manner.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Is the Local Ion Density Sufficient to Drive NaCl Nucleation from the Melt and Aqueous Solution?

Even though nucleation is ubiquitous in different science and engineering problems, investigating nucleation is extremely difficult due to the complicated ranges of time and length scales involved. In this work, we simulate NaCl nucleation in both molten and aqueous environments using enhanced sampling of all-atom molecular dynamics with deep-learning-based estimation of reaction coordinates. By incorporating various structural order parameters and learning the reaction coordinate as a function thereof, we achieve significantly improved sampling relative to traditional ad hoc descriptions of what drives nucleation, particularly in an aqueous medium. Our results reveal a one-step nucleation mechanism in both environments, with reaction coordinate analysis highlighting the importance of local ion density in distinguishing solid and liquid states. However, although fluctuations in the local ion density are necessary to drive nucleation, they are not sufficient. Our analysis shows that near the transition states, descriptors such as enthalpy and local structure become crucial. Furthermore, our protocol proposed here enables robust nucleation analysis and phase sampling and could offer insights into nucleation mechanisms for generic small molecules in different environments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Year six photometric measurements of known Trans-Neptunian Objects and Centaurs by the Dark Energy Survey

ABSTRACT We identified known Trans-Neptunian Objects (TNOs) and Centaurs in the complete Dark Energy Survey (DES) year six catalogue (DES Y6) through the Sky Body Tracker (SkyBoT) tool. We classified our data set of 144 objects into a widely used 4-class taxonomic system of TNOs. No such previous classification was available in the literature for most of these objects. From absolute magnitudes and average albedos, an estimation of the diameters of all these objects is obtained. Correlations involving colours, orbital parameters, dynamical classes, and sizes are also discussed. In particular, our largest reddest object has a diameter of $390^{+68}_{-53}$ km and our largest cold classical, $255^{+19}_{-17}$ km. Also, a weak correlation between colour and inclination is found within the population of resonant TNOs in addition to weak correlations between colour and phase slope in different bands.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Roles of Dynamic State Estimation in Power System Modeling, Monitoring and Operation

—Power system dynamic state estimation (DSE) remains an active research area. This is driven by the absence of accurate models, the increasing availability of fast-sampled, time synchronized measurements, and the advances in the capability, scalability, and affordability of computing and communications. This paper discusses the advantages of DSE as compared to static state estimation, and the implementation differences between the two, including the measurement configuration, modeling framework and support software features. The important roles of DSE are discussed from modeling, monitoring and operation aspects for today’s synchronous machine dominated systems and the future power electronics-interfaced generation systems. Several examples are presented to demonstrate the benefits of DSE on enhancing the operational robustness and resilience of 21st century power system through time critical applications. Future research directions are identified and discussed, paving the way for developing the next generation of energy management systems.

Zhao, Junbo↗

Aggregated DER_A Model Parameterization via Online Moving Horizon Estimation

Here, this paper introduces a methodology for parameterizing the DER_A model using a novel smooth mathematical representation, simplifying the process and preserving accuracy in modeling inverter-based generator (IBG). The methodology employs an online parameterization process that can operate in real-time. The model parameterization process is structured into five sequential steps, each targeting a specific aspect of the DER_A model through moving horizon estimation. This approach adapts to systems with varying voltage and frequency support requirements by selectively applying each step. Simulation results on systems with both known and unknown parameters validate the methodology’s effectiveness. The online moving horizon estimation technique accurately captures the dynamics of the overall system and ensures that the parameterized DER_A model closely mirrors the real system’s voltage, current, and power dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of this methodology to substantially improve and simplify the dynamic modeling of power systems, paving the way for more reliable and robust IBG and grid integration.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of Real-Time System Identification to Detect Abnormal Operations in a Gas Turbine Cycle

Here, we present a novel online system identification methodology for monitoring the performance of power systems. This methodology was demonstrated in a gas turbine recuperated power plant designed for a hybrid configuration. A 120-kW Garrett microturbine modified to test dynamic control strategies for hybrid power systems designed at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) was used to implement and validate this online system identification methodology. The main component of this methodology consists of an empirical transfer function model implemented in parallel to the turbine speed operation and the fuel control valve, which can monitor the process response of the gas turbine system while it is operating. During fully closed-loop operations or automated control, the output of the controller, fuel valve position, and the turbine speed measurements were fed for a given period of time to a recursive algorithm that determined the transfer function parameters during the nominal condition. After the new parameters were calculated, they were fed into the transfer function model for online prediction. The turbine speed measurement was compared against the transfer function prediction, and a control logic was implemented to capture when the system operated at nominal or abnormal conditions. To validate the ability to detect abnormal conditions during dynamic operations, drifting in the performance of the gas turbine system was evaluated. A leak in the turbomachinery working fluid was emulated by bleeding 10% of the airflow from the compressor discharge to the atmosphere, and electrical load steps were performed before and after the leak. This tool could detect the leak 7 s after it had occurred, which accounted for a fuel flow increase of approximately 15.8% to maintain the same load and constant turbine speed operations.

algorithms↗

ANALYZING METEOROID FLIGHTS USING PARTICLE FILTERS

Fireball observations from camera networks provide position and time information along the trajectory of a meteoroid that is transiting our atmosphere. The complete dynamical state of the meteoroid at each measured time can be estimated using Bayesian filtering techniques. A particle filter is a novel approach to modeling the uncertainty in meteoroid trajectories and incorporates errors in initial parameters, the dynamical model used, and observed position measurements. Unlike other stochastic approaches, a particle filter does not require predefined values for initial conditions or unobservable trajectory parameters. The Bunburra Rockhole fireball, observed by the Australian Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in 2007, is used to determine the effectiveness of a particle filter for use in fireball trajectory modeling. The final mass is determined to be 2.16±1.33 kg with a final velocity of 6030±216 m s{sup −1}, similar to previously calculated values. The full automatability of this approach will allow an unbiased evaluation of all events observed by the DFN and lead to a better understanding of the dynamical state and size frequency distribution of asteroid and cometary debris in the inner solar system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the application of the Lindstedt–Poincaré method to the Lotka–Volterra system

Highlights: •The Lotka–Volterra system leads to periodic solutions. •The Lindstedt–Poincaré method removes secular terms in the perturbation series. •The perturbation series exhibits finite convergence radius. •The convergence radius can be obtained by Padé and Hermite–Padé approximants. •Large-order perturbation calculations are necessary for such application. -- Abstract: We apply the Lindstedt–Poincaré method to the Lotka–Volterra model and discuss alternative implementations of the approach. By means of an efficient systematic algorithm we obtain an unprecedented number of perturbation corrections for the two dynamical variables and the frequency. They enable us to estimate the radius of convergence of the perturbation series for the frequency as a function of the only model parameter. The method is suitable for the treatment of systems with any number of dynamical variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Predicting the offshore distribution and abundance of marine birds with a hierarchical community distance sampling model

Abstract Proposed offshore wind energy development on the Atlantic Outer Continental Shelf has brought attention to the need for baseline studies of the distribution and abundance of marine birds. We compiled line transect data from 15 shipboard surveys (June 2012–April 2014), along with associated remotely sensed habitat data, in the lower Mid‐Atlantic Bight off the coast of Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, USA . We implemented a recently developed hierarchical community distance sampling model to estimate the seasonal abundance of 40 observed marine bird species. Treating each season separately, we included six oceanographic parameters to estimate seabird abundance: three static (distance to shore, slope, sediment grain size) and three dynamic covariates (sea surface temperature [ SST ], salinity, primary productivity). We expected that avian bottom‐feeders would respond primarily to static covariates that characterize seafloor variability, and that surface‐feeders would respond more to dynamic covariates that quantify surface productivity. We compared the variation in species‐specific and community‐level responses to these habitat features, including for rare species, and we predicted species abundance across the study area. While several protected species used the study area in summer during their breeding season, estimated abundance and observed diversity were highest for nonbreeding species in winter. Distance to shore was the most common significant predictor of abundance, and thus useful in estimating the potential exposure of marine birds to offshore development. In many cases, our expectations based on feeding ecology were confirmed, such as in the first winter season, when bottom‐feeders associated significantly with the three static covariates (distance to shore, slope, and sediment grain size), and surface‐feeders associated significantly with two dynamic covariates ( SST , primary productivity). However, other cases revealed significant relationships between static covariates and surface‐feeders (e.g., distance to shore) and between dynamic covariates and bottom‐feeders (e.g., primary productivity during that same winter). More generally, we found wide interannual, seasonal, and interspecies variation in habitat relationships with abundance. These results show the importance of quantifying detection and determining the ecological drivers of a community's distribution and abundance, within and among species, for evaluating the potential exposure of marine birds to offshore development.

Goyert, Holly F.↗

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗

CD8 + lymphocyte control of SIV infection during antiretroviral therapy

CD8 + lymphocytes play an important role in suppressing in vivo viral replication in HIV infection. However, both the extent to which and the mechanisms by which CD8 + lymphocytes contribute to viral control are not completely understood. A recent experiment depleted CD8 + lymphocytes in simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV)-infected rhesus macaques (RMs) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) to study the role of CD8 + lymphocytes. CD8 + lymphocytes depletion resulted in temporary plasma viremia in all studied RMs. Viral control was restored when CD8 + lymphocytes repopulated. We developed a viral dynamic model to fit the viral load (VL) data from the CD8 depletion experiment. We explicitly modeled the dynamics of the latent reservoir and the SIV-specific effector cell population including their exhaustion and their potential cytolytic and noncytolytic functions. We found that the latent reservoir significantly contributes to the size of the peak VL after CD8 depletion, while drug efficacy plays a lesser role. Our model suggests that the overall CD8 + lymphocyte cytolytic killing rate is dynamically changing depending on the levels of antigen-induced effector cell activation and exhaustion. Based on estimated parameters, our model suggests that before ART or without ART the overall CD8 cytolytic killing rate is small due to exhaustion. However, after the start of ART, the overall CD8 cytolytic killing rate increases due to an expansion of SIV-specific CD8 effector cells. Further, we estimate that the cytolytic killing rate can be significantly larger than the cytopathic death rate in some animals during the second phase of ART-induced viral decay. Lastly, our model provides a new explanation for the puzzling findings by Klatt et al. and Wong et al. that CD8 depletion done immediately before ART has no noticeable effect on the first phase viral decay slope seen after ART initiation Overall, by incorporating effector cells and their exhaustion, our model can explain the effects of CD8 depletion on VL during ART, reveals a detailed dynamic role of CD8 + lymphocytes in controlling viral infection, and provides a unified explanation for CD8 depletion experimental data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Imaging of a fluid injection process using geophysical data — A didactic example

In many subsurface industrial applications, fluids are injected into or withdrawn from a geologic formation. It is of practical interest to quantify precisely where, when, and by how much the injected fluid alters the state of the subsurface. Routine geophysical monitoring of such processes attempts to image the way that geophysical properties, such as seismic velocities or electrical conductivity, change through time and space and to then make qualitative inferences as to where the injected fluid has migrated. The more rigorous formulation of the time-lapse geophysical inverse problem forecasts how the subsurface evolves during the course of a fluid-injection application. Using time-lapse geophysical signals as the data to be matched, the model unknowns to be estimated are the multiphysics forward-modeling parameters controlling the fluid-injection process. Properly reproducing the geophysical signature of the flow process, subsequent simulations can predict the fluid migration and alteration in the subsurface. The dynamic nature of fluid-injection processes renders imaging problems more complex than conventional geophysical imaging for static targets. This work intents to clarify the related hydrogeophysical parameter estimation concepts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Process Modeling and Techno-Economic Analysis of a CO 2 Capture Process Using Fixed Bed Reactors with a Microencapsulated Solvent

A detailed model of a capsule containing sodium carbonate solution is developed here to study the microencapsulated carbon capture solvents (MECS). A rigorous vapor–liquid equilibrium model is developed for the Na 2 CO 3 –CO 2 –H 2 O system, where liquid-phase nonideality is modeled by the electrolyte nonrandom two-liquid model. The data from the experiments conducted at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is used to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate of the initial solvent concentration inside the capsules and the parameters for the capsule model. A nonisothermal, dynamic model of a fixed bed contactor filled with these capsules is then developed. In addition to direct steam injection, indirect heating using an embedded heat exchanger is modeled for desorption. Finally, the model is used to simulate temperature swing absorption and desorption cycles. The results of these studies indicate that there is an optimal residence time or superficial flue gas velocity to minimize the bed volume. However, the total energy requirement for desorption monotonically decreases with increased residence time as the proportion of the sensible heat to the total regeneration heat keeps decreasing. Furthermore, heat recovery from the bed is crucial to keep energy penalty for regeneration low. A techno-economic analysis is conducted, and the equivalent annual operating cost (EAOC) is analyzed for two different reactor materials (concrete and carbon-steel) and compared with a system using a conventional monoethanolamine (MEA) solvent. In this work, the minimum EAOC for the MECS fixed bed configuration is approximately 1.8–2.7 times higher than the EAOC for an MEA system with a similar amount of heat recovery (85%). The impact of ±50% uncertainty in the capital cost estimate is also evaluated, and the minimum EAOC is 1.5 times higher than the MEA technology for 85% heat recovery. These results using microencapsulated sodium carbonate solution are a starting point that sets an upper limit on the cost of the MECS carbon-capture system. Improvements to the MECS capsules (e.g., using a higher carbonate concentration and lowering the shell mass transfer resistance) and also exploring other contactor technologies are expected to decrease the system cost and make it more competitive.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Self-Secure Inverters Against Malicious Setpoints

The next generation of grid-interactive inverters brings a communication feature that allows data sharing from utility supervisory controllers and smart devices that are connected to the same network. This feature enhances the control capabilities of grid-interactive inverters to provide services beyond active power injection. However, communication networks entail more vulnerable surfaces to malicious attacks that may result in modifying active and reactive power setpoints and causing weak-grid conditions or abnormal inverter operation. In this paper, steady-state and the dynamic behavior of the inverter for the incoming setpoints are analyzed to detect false data injection attacks and provide device-level security. The steady-state behavior of the inverter in the operating region is determined from the grid parameters such as the grid voltage and the grid impedance. These estimations are accomplished by the proposed self-security technique through a low-frequency signal injection-based approach combined with the recursive least square method. Moreover, a reduced fourth-order inverter model is used as the dynamic reference model, and grid parameters as well as the incoming setpoints are implemented to the reference model to verify whether the dynamic behavior of the inverter is inside the permissible region of operation. The validity and performance of the proposed method are verified experimentally through Allen-Bradley Powerflex 755 three-phase inverter and a 12 kW NHR 9410 regenerative power grid emulator. The results show that the self-secure smart-inverter is able to accept or reject the incoming commands and thus is protected from malicious cyber-physical attacks.

Hossen, Tareq↗