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At least 109 records · Page 6

Solar Cycle Predictions Near Sunspot Minimum

Observations of solar magnetic activity and the dynamics of the solar convection zone have produced severe constraints on models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo. These constraints are so severe that, at present, we do not have numerical models that can accept the current conditions and then march forward in time to predict future activity. Given this state of solar dynamo theory we are forced to examine previous behavior to discover patterns and trends that afford us some measure of predictability. Here we examine the behavior of several indicators of solar activity near solar minimum that are well correlated with the amplitude of the following solar maximum to predict the level of solar activity over cycle 23. Sunspot numbers, areas, and positions are useful for characterizing solar cycle behavior due to the extent of the data (12 cycles or more). These data exhibit several patterns that relate future activity to past behavior. With the Odd-Even effect the odd numbered cycles have been larger than their even numbered predecessors for each of the last six cycle pairs. With the Amplitude-Period effect short period cycles have been followed by large amplitude cycles and long period cycles have been followed by small amplitude cycles for 10 of the last 13 cycles. With the Maximum-Minimum effect the sunspot number at minimum is directly correlated with the sunspot number at maximum for a given cycle. The geomagnetic indices aa and Ap are also related to solar activity by the connections between disturbances in the solar wind and variations in the Earth's magnetic field. Like the Maximum-Minimum effect for sunspots, the size of the aa and Ap indices at minimum are directly related to the amplitude of the following maximum. The number of geomagnetically disturbed days (days with Ap >= 25) over the course of a cycle is another indicator for the size of the next cycle. The aa and Ap indices can each be separated into a component in phase with the current sunspot cycle and an "extended cycle" component that is directly related to the following cycle. Individually each of these indicators provides some measure of predictive ability for the amplitudes of previous cycles. Taken in combination we find that the predictions are much more accurate. Our multi-variate analysis indicates that a maximum sunspot number of 160 +/- 20 should occur near the end of 1999 for cycle 23.

Hathaway, David H.↗

A study of the kinematic dynamo equation with time-dependent coefficients

During an active star formation epoch the interstellar medium of a galaxy is in a hyperactive state, and the average turbulent velocity is higher than in the long periods between star formation epochs. The galactic magnetic field generated by dynamo action depends strongly on the turbulent velocity, so that generation of magnetic field should vary with star formation activity. This paper is a preliminary study of the kinematic dynamo equation with time-dependent coefficients simulating the time dependence of the star formation activities. Ko and Parker argued in a simple model that the thickness of the dynamo region is the most sensitive dynamo parameter. The present work shows that the effect of inflating the galactic disk suddenly is to transform a stationary magnetic field into a growing field while keeping the profile more or less intact. Plane wave solutions for a dynamo with power-law time-dependent parameters show that the field may decay first and then grow, and vice versa, which is quite different from a constant parameter dynamo.

Ko, Chung-Ming↗

Generation of Alfven waves by deceleration of magnetospheric convection and broadband Pi pulsations

The generation of Alfven waves by the deceleration of magnetospheric convection caused by ionospheric loading effects in the magnetospheric dynamo is considered. A one-dimensional model of that region of the plasma sheet where convection is decelerated due to the dynamo process in the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is formulated, and the stability of the region is analyzed in order to derive the growth rate of unstable Alfven waves. The effects of ionospheric damping on unstable Alfven wave packets bounding between hemispheres are estimated. It is found that the overall growth rate is proportional to the height-integrated Pedersen conductivity and the convection speed in the dynamic region, but changes into a damping rate when the Pedersen conductivity is reduced below a specific threshold. The unstable Alfven waves thus generated are also found to contribute to both burstlike and relatively continuous Pi pulsations observed during substorms.

Kan, J. R.↗

Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, 10th, Houston, Tex., March 19-23, 1979, Proceedings. Volume 3 - Planetary interiors and surfaces

The areas covered on the present symposium include geophysical investigations based on laboratory and planetary measurements; impact and volcanic processes; and planetary surface features and processes. The topics discussed include models of an early lunar dynamo, parameterized convection within the moon and the terrestrial planets, the bounds of the heat production rate with the moon, the shock metamorphism of granulated lunar basalt, asymmetric terracing of lunar highland craters, large impact basins on Mercury, impact melting in early lunar history, and evidence for ancient mare volcanism.

Merrill, R. B.↗

Magnetospheric currents; Chapman Conference, Irvington, VA, April 5-8, 1983, Selected Papers

A description is presented of theory and models, taking into account magnetospheric dynamo processes, magnetospheric topology of fields and currents, a new theory of sources of Birkeland currents, dielectric and permeability effects in collisionless plasmas, field-aligned current sheets as tangential and rotational discontinuities, electrodynamics of convection in the inner magnetosphere, coupling of Birkeland current rings, region one Birkeland currents connecting to sunward convecting flux tubes, and corrected geomagnetic coordinates for epoch 1980. Other topics explored are related to early history, an introduction to magnetospheric currents, surface observations, near-space observations, distant space observations, ionospheric effects, plasma instabilities, and current systems in other magnetospheres. Attention is given to the dynamics of field-aligned current sources at earth and Jupiter, fundamentals of current description, polar cap current systems, electric fields and currents associated with active aurora, and the role of currents in plasma redistribution.

Potemra, T. A.↗

The stretching of magnetic flux tubes in the convective overshoot region

The present study examines the fate of a magnetic flux tube initially lying at the bottom of the solar convective overshoot region. Stretching of the flux tube, e.g., by differential rotation, reduces its density, causing it to rise quasi-statically (a process referred to as vertical flux drift) until it reaches the top of the overshoot region and enters the buoyantly unstable convection region, from which a portion of it may ultimately protrude to form an active region on the surface. It is suggested that vertical flux drift and flux destabilization are inevitable consequences of field amplification, and it is surmised that these phenomena should be considered in self-consistent models of solar and stellar dynamos operating in the overshoot region.

Fisher, George H.↗

Nonlinear decay of magnetic helicity in magnetohydrodynamic turbulence with a mean magnetic field

We show that the magnetic helicity associated with fluctuations in homogeneous incompressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence with a mean magnetic field decays in time because of nonlinear processes. Evidence is obtained numerically, by use of both dissipative and nondissipative spectral method simulations. The described effect stands in contrast to expectations based on studies of MHD turbulence without an applied mean field, in which magnetic helicity is transferred nonlinearly to long wavelengths and is preserved in time because of selective decay when dissipation is present. The process of nonlinear decay is described in terms of a generalized ideal helicity invariant and is characterized by the transient production of a mean induced electric field aligned with the applied magnetic field, an effect reminiscent of the alpha effect in dynamo theory. A simple phenomenological model for the decay process is proposed.

Stribling, Troy↗

Protoplanetary Formation and the FU Orionis Outburst

The following three publications which reference the above grant from the NASA Origins of Solar Systems program are attached and form the final technical report for this project. The research involved comparisons of the spectral energy distributions of FU Orionis objects with theoretical models and associated studies of the structure of the outbursting accretion disks, as well as related studies on the effects of magnetic fields in disks, which will lead in the future to models of FU Orionis outbursts which include the effects of magnetic fields. The project was renewed under a new grant NAGW-4456, entitled 'Effects of FU Orionis Outbursts on Protoplanetary Disks'. Work now being prepared for publication deals more specifically with the issue of the effects of the outbursts on protoplanetary formation. Models of the spectral energy distribution of FU Orionis stars. A simple model of a buoyant magnetic dynamo in accretion disks and a numerical study of magnetic buoyancy in an accretion disk have been submitted.

Bodenheimer, P. H.↗

Lunar magnetism and an early cold moon

Models of lunar magnetism have involved dynamo action in a fluid core in an early hot moon; an early cold moon magnetized some time before 4 billion years ago, which has subsequently heated up; and local field sources which, in some models, are related to impact. The present work examines the second possibility and shows that, provided the moon contained a few percent of metallic iron and was exposed to an extra-lunar field of about 10 or 20 oersted while much of it was still below the Curie point of iron, a restricted class of thermal evolution models, which satisfy the known constraints, can be derived.

Strangway, D. W.↗

Local magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and the wave-driven dynamo in accretion disks

We consider the consequences of magnetic buoyancy and the magnetic shearing instability (MSI) on the strength and organization of the magnetic field in a thin accretion disk. We discuss a model in which the wave-driven dynamo growth rate is balanced by the dissipative effects of the MSI. As in earlier work, the net helicity is due to small advective motions driven by nonlinear interactions between internal waves. Assuming a simple model of the internal wave spectrum generated from the primary m = 1 internal waves, we find that the magnetic energy density saturates at about (H/r) exp 4/3 times the local pressure (where H is the disk thickness and r is its radius). On very small scales the shearing instability will produce an isotropic fluctuating field. For a stationary disk this is equivalent to a dimensionless 'viscosity' of about (H/r) exp 4/3. The vertical and radial diffusion coefficients will be comparable to each other. Magnetic buoyancy will be largely suppressed by the turbulence due to the MSI. We present a rough estimate of its effects and find that it removes magnetic flux from the disk at a rate comparable to that caused by turbulent diffusion.

Vishniac, Ethan T.↗

The dynamo of the diurnal tide and its effect on the thermospheric circulation

A theoretical multiconstituent model (including O, N2, and O2) which describes the interactions between neutral winds, dynamo electric fields, and ion drifts is used to interpret observations that revealed a dominance of the fundamental diurnal tide in the upper thermosphere and at equatorial latitudes, and its effect on the thermospheric circulation. The model is shown to reproduce reasonably well the magnitudes of the neutral winds, ion drift velocities, and the ratio between the two. A solution for the neutral winds in which the dynamo electric field is forced to zero shows that the dynamo-induced ion drift is very important in accelerating the neutral atmosphere at higher altitudes. The dynamo interaction primarily affects the curl component of the field; its effect on the temperature and density perturbations is small.

Mayr, H. G.↗

A Deep HRI Survey of Low-Mass PMS Stars in NGC 2264

Brian Patten is the Principal Investigator of the NASA ADP project 'A Deep HRI Survey of Low-Mass PMS Stars in NGC 2264'. This project was funded to support primarily the data reduction and analysis for new ROSAT data to be acquired in ROSAT AO8. For AO8 we were awarded two deep (100 ks) exposures with the ROSAT HRI instrument of a rotation and proper-motion selected sample of young (3 Myr - 15 Myr), low-mass, PMS stars in the populous star-forming region NGC 2264. These X-ray data were to be combined with an extensive rotation database for members of this cluster to allow us, for the first time, to probe the early evolution of magnetic dynamo activity for both fully convective stars and those stars found lower on the Hayashi tracks which have developed radiative cores. This database would have been used to study the interrelationship between coronal activity level, interior structure, and rotation rate as a function of mass and age.in the PMS and to define empirical constraints for theoretical models of angular momentum and magnetic dynamo evolution.

Patten, Brian↗

Reducing the non-axisymmetry of a planetary dynamo and an application to Saturn

A simple model for the tendency toward axisymmetrization observed in planets is developed. The model is presented in general but linear form, assuming that the differentially rotating fluid is thin, which means that Lorentz forces or Ohmic dissipation are neglected. Two cases are considered: uniform shear throughout the shell and shear concentrated within a very thin boundary layer. In each case, explicit expressions are obtained for the spatial attenuation of the non-spin-axisymmetric field components. The substantial nonlinear effects which prevent these results from being directly applicable to planets are discussed, with particular emphasis on the Taylor constraint. The model is applied to Saturn and found to give a satisfactory semiquantitative explanation for the near-axisymmetry of the field. The parameter choices required to reproduce the observed tilt are entirely reasonable and potentially testable. The model explains why Jupiter and Saturn are so different.

Stevenson, D. J.↗

Intermittent behavior of galactic dynamo activities

Recent observations by Beck and Golla of far-infrared and radio continuum emission from nearby spiral galaxies suggest that the galactic magnetic field strength is connected to the current star formation rate. The role of star formation on the generation of large-scale galactic magnetic field is studied in this paper. Using a simple galactic model, it is shown how the galactic dynamo depends strongly on the turbulent velocity of the interstellar medium. When the star formation efficiency is high, the ISM is churned which in turn amplifies the galactic magnetic field. Between active star formation epochs, the magnetic field is in dormant state and decays at a negligible rate. If density waves trigger star formation, then they also turn on the otherwise dormant dynamo.

Ko, C. M.↗

A solar origin for the large lunar magnetic field at 4.0 billion yr ago

A new method (Shaw, 1974) for paleointensity determination has been applied to three subsamples of one polymict breccia, 72215 (of age 4.0 billion yr) to yield an average paleointensity of 0.41 Oe at the Taurus-Littrow region of the moon around the time of breccia formation. Of the present models for lunar magnetism, only the Sonett and Runcorn (1974) model of a central iron core dynamo can explain the presence of such a large field in early lunar history. However, because of the similarity in size of this field and that for the early solar system deduced from carbonaceous chondrites, we draw attention to an apparently little-considered possibility: that the large magnetic field in early lunar history was external and solar in origin, and emanated from a pre-main sequence T-Tauri stage sun. Therefore, there should be no record of such a large magnetic field in lunar rocks younger than approximately 4.0 billion yr.

Banerjee, S. K.↗

A Deep Imaging Survey of NGC 6475 and a Deep Survey of the Young Open Cluster Alpha Persei

We have published three papers directly related to the x-ray data (see below), and one other paper directly related to the optical photometry obtained in connection to the ROSAT data analysis (also listed below). In addition, we have used the x-ray data in combination with the optical photometry and with high resolution optical spectra that we have obtained (to derive spectroscopic rotational velocities) to address questions related to the dependence of coronal activity on the rotation rate, mass, and other characteristics of the target stars. The overall goal of our ROSAT projects has been to determine the time evolution of coronal activity in low mass stars, and from that behavior place constraints on the physical processes involved in generating coronal activity. NGC 6475 and Alpha Persei are important parts of that process. We are now beginning to address how these data constrain theoretical models of angular momentum evolution and dynamo magnetic field generation (see paper by Stauffer et al. and Krishnamurthi et al. listed below in the "related papers" section). We are still working on two papers pertaining to this grant (rotational velocities and chromospheric activity of Alpha Persei x-ray sources and rotational velocities and lithium abundances of NGC 6475 sources), but we will publish those papers using funds from other grants.

Stauffer, John R.↗

Supergranule Diffusion and Active Region Decay

Models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo include turbulent diffusion to parameterize the effects of convective motions on the evolution of the Sun's magnetic field. Supergranules are known to dominate the evolution of the surface magnetic field structure as evidenced by the structure of both the active and quiet magnetic network. However, estimates for the dif hivity attributed to su perymules differ by an order of magnitude from about 100 km sup2/s to more than 1000 km sup2/s. We examine this question of the e i v i t y using three merent approaches. 1) We study the decay of more than 30,000 active regions by determining the rate of change in the sunspot area of each active region from day-to-day. 2) We study the decay of a single isolated active region near the time of solar minimum by examining the magnetic field evolution over five solar rotations fiom SOHOMDI magnetograms obtained at 96-minute intervals. 3) We study the characteristics of supergranules that influence the estimates of their diffusive properties - flow speeds and lifetimes as functions of size - fiom SOHO/MDI Dopplergrams.

Hathaway, David H.↗

Activity Cycles in Stars

Starspots and stellar activity can be detected in other stars using high precision photometric and spectrometric measurements. These observations have provided some surprises (starspots at the poles - sunspots are rarely seen poleward of 40 degrees) but more importantly they reveal behaviors that constrain our models of solar-stellar magnetic dynamos. The observations reveal variations in cycle characteristics that depend upon the stellar structure, convection zone dynamics, and rotation rate. In general, the more rapidly rotating stars are more active. However, for stars like the Sun, some are found to be inactive while nearly identical stars are found to be very active indicating that periods like the Sun's Maunder Minimum (an inactive period from 1645 to 1715) are characteristic of Sun-like stars.

Hathaway, David H.↗