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95 records · Page 6

Application of Objectives-Driven Assurance Cases to System Development in an Evolving Acquisition Model

System properties such as “safety” and “dependability” cannot, in practice, be proven, and must be argued in an “assurance case” aimed at supporting risk-acceptance decisions that have to be made by system acquirers and/or regulatory authorities. The paper is concerned with applications of the “assurance case” idea early in design and development of new systems, when (apart from dedicated testing) the only available operating experience information derives from previous (non-identical) systems. Much of the discussion is based on an evolving acquisition model at the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration; previously, most major systems were developed in-house, but some major systems will now be developed by and acquired from commercial providers. Key points discussed include the following. (1) By promoting a particular kind of focused discussion between acquirers and providers, the use of assurance cases should be particularly valuable under the new acquisition model. (2) In principle, objectives-driven (sometimes called “performance-based”) approaches to assurance of performance have significant advantages in cases where they are applicable. (3) For truly novel systems, completeness of the safety analysis is a significant issue; it is important for the assurance case to include a commitment by the provider (or applicant) to seriously pursue analysis of operating experience, so that previously unrecognized hazards can be identified and addressed. (4) Inquiries into major accidents often point to deficiencies in management oversight in all parts of the life cycle; management processes need to be addressed in the formulation and the implementation of an assurance case. Under the new acquisition model, these considerations imply a serious reconsideration of the way in which the development process is managed by both providers and acquirers.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Theoretical modeling of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter structural loadings and power performances

Here, this study presents theoretical formulations to evaluate the fundamental parameters and performance characteristics of a bottom-raised oscillating surge wave energy converter (OSWEC) device. Employing a flat plate assumption and potential flow formulation in elliptical coordinates, closed-form equations for the added mass, radiation damping, and excitation forces/torques in the relevant pitch-pitch and surge-pitch directions of motion are developed and used to calculate the system's response amplitude operator and the forces and moments acting on the foundation. The model is benchmarked against numerical simulations using WAMIT and WEC-Sim, showcasing excellent agreement. The sensitivity of plate thickness on the analytical hydrodynamic solutions is investigated over several thickness-to-width ratios ranging from 1:80 to 1:10. The results show that as the thickness of the benchmark OSWEC increases, the deviation of the analytical hydrodynamic coefficients from the numerical solutions grows from 3% to 25%. Differences in the excitation forces and torques, however, are contained within 12%. While the flat plate assumption is a limitation of the proposed analytical model, the error is within a reasonable margin for use in the design space exploration phase before a higher-fidelity (and thus more computationally expensive) model is employed. A parametric study demonstrates the ability of the analytical model to quickly sweep over a domain of OSWEC dimensions, illustrating the analytical model's utility in the early phases of design.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Smoothing and flattening the universe through slow contraction versus inflation

In a systematic study, we use an equivalent pair of improved numerical relativity codes based on a tetrad-formulation of the classical Einstein-scalar field equations to examine whether slow contraction or inflation (or both) can resolve the homogeneity, isotropy and flatness problems. Our finding, based on a set of gauge/frame invariant diagnostics and the models considered, is that slow contraction robustly and rapidly smooths and flattens spacetime beginning from initial conditions that are outside the perturbative regime of the flat Friedmann-Robertson-Walker metric, whereas inflation fails these tests. We present new numerical evidence supporting the conjecture that the combination of ultralocal evolution and an effective equation-of-state with pressure much greater than energy density is the key to having robust and rapid smoothing. The opposite of ultralocality occurs in expanding spacetimes, which is the leading obstruction to smoothing following a big bang.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Cosmic quenching and scaling laws for the evolution of supermassive black holes and host galaxies

ABSTRACT Observations suggest a co-evolution of supermassive black holes (SMBHs) and host galaxies. In this paper, we consider the mass and energy flow in a near-equilibrium bulge suffused by gases of varying temperatures. By assuming the rate of energy flow independent of the distance r from the bulge center and the local virial equilibrium for permeated gases on scale r, a key parameter $\varepsilon _b$ was identified that quantifies the mass and energy flow in gases and the efficiency of gas cooling (or the "specific" cooling rate per unit mass), and thus regulates the co-evolution of both SMBHs and hosts. With the help of Illustris simulations and observations, we determined the redshift variation $\varepsilon _b\propto (1+z)^{5/2}$. A higher $\varepsilon _b$ in the early Universe means a higher specific cooling rate that allows rapid evolution of SMBHs and hosts. This simple theory, characterized by a single parameter $\varepsilon _b$, provides the dominant mean cosmic evolution of SMBHs and hosts. All other transient phenomena may only contribute to the dispersion around this mean evolution. Based on this theory and relevant assumptions, scaling laws involving $\varepsilon _b$ were identified for the evolution of SMBHs and hosts. For host galaxies, the mass–size relation $M_b\propto \varepsilon _b^{2/3}r_b^{5/3}G^{-1}$, the dispersion–size relation $\sigma _b^2\propto (\varepsilon _b r_b)^{2/3}\propto (1+z)$, or the mass–dispersion relation $M_b\propto \varepsilon _b^{-1}G^{-1}\sigma _b^5$ were identified, where $r_b\propto (1+z)^{-1}$ is the bulge size. For SMBHs, three evolution phases were found involving an initial rapid growth stage with a rising luminosity $L_B\propto (\varepsilon _b M_{\rm BH})^{4/5}$, a transition stage with a declining $L_B\propto \varepsilon _b^2 M_{\rm BH} \propto (1+z)^5$, and a dormant stage with $L_B\propto (\varepsilon _b M_{\rm BH})^{4/3}$. Our results suggest a rapid initial super-Eddington growth in a short period with a new redshift-dependent luminosity limit $L_X\propto\varepsilon _b^{4/5}M_{\rm BH}^{4/5}G^{-1/5}c$, in contrast to the Eddington limit. Analytical solutions were formulated for the BH mass function $\Phi _{\rm BH}$, active galactic nucleus (AGN) mass function $\Phi _{\rm AGN}$, and duty cycle U that predict $\Phi _L\propto L^{-1/5}$ for the faint-end luminosity function, $\Phi _{\rm AGN}\propto M^{-1/5}$ for small-mass-end AGN mass function $\Phi _L$, and $U\propto M^{-1/5}$ at high redshift.

(galaxies:) quasars: supermassive black holes↗

Particle resuspension: Challenges and perspectives for future models

Using what has become a celebrated catchphrase, Philip W. Anderson once wrote that “more is different” (Science, Vol. 177, Issue 4047, pp. 393–396, 1972). First formulated in the context of condensed matter, this statement carries far beyond the sole limits of solid-state physics. It emphasizes that collective behavior can be more than the mere sum of what happens for elementary constituents or the mere collation of the evolution of each degree of freedom. Said otherwise, complex phenomena can arise out of the interplay between multiple sub-phenomena each of which can be relatively simple. The process of particle resuspension, in which discrete particles adhering on a surface are pulled off and carried away by a fluid flow, is another example involving a web of phenomena pertaining to fluid mechanics, particle dynamics and interface chemistry whose cross-effects create an intricate topic. The purpose of this review is to analyze the physics at play in particle resuspension in order to bring insights into the rich complexity of this common but challenging concern. Following the more-is-different vision, this is performed by starting from a range of practical observations and experimental data. We then work our way through the investigation of the key mechanisms which play a role in the overall process. In turn, these mechanisms reveal an array of fundamental interactions, such as particle–fluid, particle–particle and particle–surface, whose combined effects create the tapestry of current applications. At the core of this analysis are descriptions of these physical phenomena and the different ways through which they are intertwined to build up various models used to provide quantitative assessment of particle resuspension. The physics of particle resuspension implies to hold together processes occurring at extremely different space and time scales and models are key in providing a single vehicle to lead us through such multiscale journeys. This raises questions on what makes up a model and one objective of the present work is to clarify the essence of a modeling approach. In spite of its ubiquitous nature, particle resuspension is still at the early stages of developments. Many extensions need to be worked out and revisiting the art of modeling is not a moot point. The need to consider more complex objects than small and spherical particles and, moreover, to come up with unified descriptions of mono- and multilayer resuspension put the emphasis on solid model foundations if we are to go beyond current limits. Further, this is very much modeling in the making and new ideas are proposed to stimulate interest into this everyday but challenging issue in physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗