Investigating the performance of high-resolution subseasonal precipitation forecasts in support of food insecurity early warning
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William Turner↗
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Early warning signs of salt marsh drowning indicated by widespread vulnerability from declining belowground plant biomass
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Kyle D. Runion↗
A Pandemic Early Warning System Decision Analysis Concept Utilizing a Distributed Network of Air Samplers via Electrostatic Air Precipitation
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Joseph J. Bango↗
Sending out an SOS: using start of rainy season indicators for market price forecasting to support famine early warning
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Frank M Davenport↗
Real-time Bayesian inference at extreme scale: Tsunami early warning applied to the Cascadia subduction zone
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Mathematics and Computing↗
An accumulation method for early fault warning and its application to wind turbine systems
Unexpected failures in engineering systems lead to expensive maintenance actions and should be avoided if at all possible. This is particularly true for wind turbine systems for which unexpected failures not only demand costly repairs but also cause long downtime. Motivated by this need, we present an accumulation method for fault early warning and failure anticipation. Here, our research shows that one critical element allowing the ability of early warning is to accumulate the small-magnitude symptoms resulting from gradual changes in an engineering system like wind turbines. Our idea is inspired by the classical cumulative sum method, or CUSUM, but we have to redesign the accumulation mechanism for tackling unique challenges in wind turbine data. The new accumulation method is applied to two real wind turbine datasets, one with gearbox failures and the other with generator failures, and demonstrates superior performance as compared with CUSUM.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project
Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated under the Open Cloud Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) set of web services was good [1][2]. However, it was discovered that in order to make a system like this functional, there were many performance issues. Data sets were large and located in a variety of location behind firewalls and had to be accessed across open networks, so security was an issue. Furthermore, the network access acted as bottleneck to transfer map products to where they are needed. Finally, during disasters, many users and computer processes act in parallel and thus it was very easy to overload the single string of computers stitched together in a virtual system that was initially developed. To address some of these performance issues, the team partnered with the Open Cloud Consortium (OCC) who supplied a Computation Cloud located at the University of Illinois at Chicago and some manpower to administer this Cloud. The Flood SensorWeb [3] system was interfaced to the Cloud to provide a high performance user interface and product development engine. Figure 1 shows the functional diagram of the Flood SensorWeb. Figure 2 shows some of the functionality of the Computation Cloud that was integrated. A significant portion of the original system was ported to the Cloud and during the past year, technical issues were resolved which included web access to the Cloud, security over the open Internet, beginning experiments on how to handle surge capacity by using the virtual machines in the cloud in parallel, using tiling techniques to render large data sets as layers on map, interfaces to allow user to customize the data processing/product chain and other performance enhancing techniques. The conclusion reached from the effort and this presentation is that defining the interoperability standards in a small fraction of the work. For example, once open web service standards were defined, many users could not make use of the standards due to security restrictions. Furthermore, once an interoperable sysm is functional, then a surge of users can render a system unusable, especially in the disaster domain.
Mandl, Daniel↗
Anticipating Hazard Impacts through Capacity Building and Co-development
Improving forecast accuracy, extending lead time, understanding hazard susceptibility, and integrating exposure and vulnerability data to generate impact-based forecasts are critical in mitigating disaster impacts. These efforts enable anticipatory action through enhancing the efficacy of early warning systems to assess potential multi-dimensional hazard impacts. In response to this need, SERVIR has co-developed a series of hazard services providing vital information from national to regional scales. This poster showcases examples of geospatial services co-developed with partners through a capacity building approach, supporting the establishment of hazard early warning / early action systems. These services integrate multidimensional vulnerability and exposure data to comprehensively assess impacts. Furthermore, these services demonstrate how co-development and capacity building can advance the development of impact-based forecasts and multi-hazards services. By prioritizing collaboration, human insights, local knowledge, capacity building, and employing applied science approaches in geospatial service development, this work has helped create inclusive and customized solutions. These solutions are tailored to meet the needs of local communities and are readily adaptable into decision-making processes.
weather↗
Economic Impact Assessments (EIA) of application of GEOGLOWS in Ecuador: Data Gaps, Limitations and Recommendations
In 2022, the United Nations launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4ALL) Program to establish global early warning systems by 2027. To assess the impact of the substantial $3.1 billion annual investment over five years, EW4ALL will consider factors that will require national coordination for the data needed for these assessments. In 2023, Ecuador was identified as one of the world's most climate-vulnerable countries, emphasizing the need to enhance its early warning systems. In 2020, the SERVIR Amazonia hub implemented the GEOGLOWS streamflow forecast service in collaboration with Ecuador's national meteorological agency (INAMHI). GEOGloWS provides 15-day ensemble forecasts and 80 years of historical streamflow data for every river worldwide through a free web service. The World Meteorological Organization has recognized this initiative as essential in contributing to the UN's call to ensure an 'Early Warning for All' by 2027. In 2023, as part of NASA's continuous efforts to fund research for Policy-Relevant Implementations, an economic impact assessment (EIA) was performed to understand the potential socioeconomic benefits of Early streamflow predictions in Ecuador using the GEOGLOWS service. Preliminary findings highlighted that gaps remain in effectively integrating socioeconomic and Earth observation (EO) data to capture the total value of these predictions. Implementing GEOGLOWS has led to valuable hydrological forecasts; however, the total economic benefits have yet to be documented. This study addresses the gaps and makes recommendations for future work that should focus on capturing the socio-economic benefits and costs associated with these forecasts, including their impact on decision-making at national and local levels. Despite the daily use of GEOGLOWS by key figures, including the President of Ecuador, the need for comprehensive recommendations and assessments is urgent.
Reetwika Basu↗
Estimating groundwater use and demand in arid Kenya through assimilation of satellite data and in-situ sensors with machine learning toward drought early action
Groundwater is an important source of water for people, livestock, and agriculture during drought in the Horn of Africa. In this work, areas of high groundwater use and demand in drought-prone Kenya were identified and forecasted prior to the dry season. Estimates of groundwater use were extended from a sentinel network of 69 in-situ sensored mechanical boreholes to the region with satellite data and a machine learning model. The sensors contributed 756 site-month observations from June 2017 to September 2021 for model building and validation at a density of approximately one sensor per 3700 sq.km. An ensemble of 19 parameterized algorithms was informed by features including satellite-derived precipitation, surface water availability, vegetation indices, hydrologic land surface modeling, and site characteristics to dichotomize high groundwater pump utilization. Three operational definitions of high demand on groundwater infrastructure were considered: 1) mechanical runtime of pumps greater than a quarter of a day (6+ hr) and daily per capita volume extractions indicative of 2) domestic water needs (35+ L), and 3) intermediate needs including livestock (75+ L). Gridded interpolation of localized groundwater use and demand was provided from 2017 to 2020 and forecasted for the 2021 dry season, June–September 2021. Cross-validated skill for contemporary estimates of daily pump runtime and daily volume extraction to meet domestic and intermediate water needs was 68%, 69%, and 75%, respectively. Forecasts were externally validated with an accuracy of at least 56%, 70%, or 72% for each groundwater use definition. The groundwater maps are accessible to stakeholders including the Kenya National Drought Management Authority (NDMA) and the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET). These maps represent the first operational spatially-explicit sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) estimates of groundwater use and demand in the literature. Knowledge of historical and forecasted groundwater use is anticipated to improve decision-making and resource allocation for a range of early warning early action applications.
Katie Fankhauser↗
Geostationary Lightning Mapper for GOES-R
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) is a single channel, near-IR optical detector, used to detect, locate and measure total lightning activity over the full-disk as part of a 3-axis stabilized, geostationary weather satellite system. The next generation NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2014 will carry a GLM that will provide continuous day and night observations of lightning from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. The mission objectives for the GLM are to 1) provide continuous, full-disk lightning measurements for storm warning and Nowcasting, 2) provide early warning of tornadic activity, and 3) accumulate a long-term database to track decadal changes of lightning. The GLM owes its heritage to the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor (1997-Present) and the Optical Transient Detector (1995-2000), which were developed for the Earth Observing System and have produced a combined 11 year data record of global lightning activity. Instrument formulation studies begun in January 2006 will be completed in March 2007, with implementation expected to begin in September 2007. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, airborne science missions (e.g., African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis, AMMA), and regional test beds (e.g, Lightning Mapping Arrays) are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data now being provided to selected forecast offices will lead to improved understanding of the application of these data in the severe storm warning process and accelerate the development of the pre-launch algorithms and Nowcasting applications. Proxy data combined with MODIS and Meteosat Second Generation SEVERI observations will also lead to new applications (e.g., multi-sensor precipitation algorithms blending the GLM with the Advanced Baseline Imager, convective cloud initiation and identification, early warnings of lightning threat, storm tracking, and data assimilation).
Goodman, Steven↗
Data Descriptor: A Land Data Assimilation System for Sub-Saharan Africa Food and Water Security Applications
Seasonal agricultural drought monitoring systems, which rely on satellite remote sensing and land surface models (LSMs), are important for disaster risk reduction and famine early warning. These systems require the best available weather inputs, as well as a long-term historical record to contextualize current observations. This article introduces the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), a custom instance of the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The FLDAS is routinely used to produce multi-model and multi-forcing estimates of hydro-climate states and fluxes over semi-arid, food insecure regions of Africa. These modeled data and derived products, like soil moisture percentiles and water availability, were designed and are currently used to complement FEWSNETs operational remotely sensed rainfall, evapotranspiration, and vegetation observations. The 30+ years of monthly outputs from the FLDAS simulations are publicly available from the NASA Goddard Earth Science Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) and recommended for use in hydroclimate studies, early warning applications, and by agro-meteorological scientists in Eastern, Southern, and Western Africa.
albedo↗
Ultrasonic Characterization of Lithium Ion Thermal Runaway Conditions for Real-time Ultrasonic Enabled BMS Integration
The demand for energy storage is growing, and lithium-ion batteries are a promising technology to meet this need due to their high power/energy density, high round-trip efficiency, rapid response time, and portability. However, recent catastrophic events caused by thermal runaway have slowed their adoption, highlighting the need for an early warning system for battery failure. In this work, ultrasound is used to detect physical changes in 950 mAh batteries by identifying material property changes independent of voltage and current. [Ultrasound signal features (e.g., time of flight, maximum frequency component) were extracted as the batteries were cycled and subjected to both constant current and constant voltage overcharge and were used to develop two metrics identifying failure: a warning to detect the start of overcharge and an emergency stop (E-stop) to immediately take the battery out of service. The identification method involved locating magnitude differences of several ultrasound features compared to baseline operation considering different currents and temperatures, and the warning/stopping metrics were consistent across all experiments. For an average overcharge time of 140 minutes, the average warning was issued 124 minutes before the failure and the average E-stop was triggered 94 minutes before failure. As a test of using ultrasound for early warning detection, a battery was forced into overcharge and returned to normal cycling conditions based on the previously determined warning metric. Both the voltage profile and the ultrasound measurements returned to their baseline behavior, indicating that ultrasonic detection can not only identify battery failure before a catastrophic event, but can also provide early enough warnings such that overcharges can be detected and corrected quickly enough so the battery does not need to be decommissioned.]
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies
Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability – the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA’s Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.
Drought monitoring↗
How Satellite Soil Moisture Data Can Help to Monitor the Impacts of Climate Change: SMAP Case Studies
Socially and economically costly extreme weather events have become more prevalent in the last decade. Monitoring and early warning systems could help mitigate the impact of such events by allowing people to better prepare themselves to manage their responses to these events. One significant element of an effective warning system is soil moisture because it is a key determinant of the exchange of water and heat energy between the land and atmosphere, the partitioning of precipitation between infiltration and runoff, and therefore has an influence on weather patterns and streamflow. In addition, soil moisture governs plant water availability - the key to crop yield forecasting. For these reasons, a wide range of organizations use soil moisture information to better predict and monitor climate and weather phenomena such as floods and droughts. By improving soil moisture estimates, it may be possible to improve the monitoring and early warning systems upon which these organizations rely, and hence better mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. Through case studies, this article discusses several uses of soil moisture data products from NASA's Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission to help improve soil moisture-related monitoring and early warning systems.
agriculture↗
Review of FEWS NET Biophysical Monitoring Requirements
The Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) provides monitoring and early warning support to decision makers responsible for responding to famine and food insecurity. FEWS NET transforms satellite remote sensing data into rainfall and vegetation information that can be used by these decision makers. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration has recently funded activities to enhance remote sensing inputs to FEWS NET. To elicit Earth observation requirements, a professional review questionnaire was disseminated to FEWS NET expert end-users: it focused upon operational requirements to determine additional useful remote sensing data and; subsequently, beneficial FEWS NET biophysical supplementary inputs. The review was completed by over 40 experts from around the world, enabling a robust set of professional perspectives to be gathered and analyzed rapidly. Reviewers were asked to evaluate the relative importance of environmental variables and spatio-temporal requirements for Earth science data products, in particular for rainfall and vegetation products. The results showed that spatio-temporal resolution requirements are complex and need to vary according to place, time, and hazard: that high resolution remote sensing products continue to be in demand, and that rainfall and vegetation products were valued as data that provide actionable food security information.
Ross, K. W.↗
Evaluating disease surveillance strategies for early outbreak detection in contact networks with varying community structure
Disease surveillance systems allow public health agencies to respond to emerging diseases before they become widespread. Developing such systems requires identifying optimal ways to monitor in the context of an epidemic outbreak; this problem is known as sensor selection. Contact networks represent the dynamics of interaction in a population and are used to model how a disease spreads in a population and to explore strategies of sensor selection. We evaluated five sensor selection strategies on their ability to provide an early warning of a COVID-like outbreak in synthetic contact networks encapsulated in four network scenarios. Three of these scenarios assessed different aspects of community structure. The fourth scenario employed a contact network representing the population and interactions of 6.8 million people in New York City, constructed from an agent-based simulation using census and transportation data. This scenario exemplifies how sensor selection strategies may perform in a real-world, urban context. Our findings suggest that the choice of the optimal strategy depends heavily on the community structure of the network. Strategies that select highly connected nodes or maximize network coverage are the optimal surveillance strategy for outbreak detection in many network community structures. However, a naive implementation of these strategies may fail to provide an early warning at all—including in the New York City scenario. Moreover, these methods are impractical for real-world use as they require knowledge of the underlying contact network. Instead, a selection strategy that starts with a set of random nodes and then performs a random walk through a chain of neighbors reliably provides early warnings without requiring prior knowledge of the network. We find this method, called “random chain”, to be the most pragmatic for implementation in a real-world disease surveillance context.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Predicting the timing and potential of the spring emergence of overwintered populations of Heliothis spp
The current state of knowledge dealing with the prediction of the overwintering population and spring emergence of Heliothis spp., a serious pest of numerous crops is surveyed. Current literature is reviewed in detail. Temperature and day length are the primary factors which program H. spp. larva for possible diapause. Although studies on the interaction of temperature and day length are reported, the complete diapause induction process is not identified sufficiently to allow accurate prediction of diapause timing. Mortality during diapause is reported as highly variable. The factors causing mortality are identified, but only a few are quantified. The spring emergence of overwintering H. spp. adults and mathematical models which predict the timing of emergence are reviewed. Timing predictions compare favorably to observed field data; however, prediction of actual numbers of emerging moths is not possible. The potential for use of spring emergence predictions in pest management applications, as an early warning of potential crop damage, are excellent. Research requirements to develop such an early warning system are discussed.
Hartstack, A. W.↗