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DOE OSTI2021

Climate warming enhances microbial network complexity and stability

Unravelling the relationships between network complexity and stability under changing climate is a challenging topic in theoretical ecology that remains understudied in the field of microbial ecology. Here, we examined the effects of long-term experimental warming on the complexity and stability of molecular ecological networks in grassland soil microbial communities. Warming significantly increased network complexity, including network size, connectivity, connectance, average clustering coefficient, relative modularity and number of keystone species, as compared with the ambient control. Molecular ecological networks under warming became significantly more robust, with network stability strongly correlated with network complexity, supporting the central ecological belief that complexity begets stability. Furthermore, warming significantly strengthened the relationships of network structure to community functional potentials and key ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, these results indicate that preserving microbial ‘interactions’ is critical for ecosystem management and for projecting ecological consequences of future climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Towards a self-driving trigger at the LHC: adaptive response in real time

Real-time data filtering and selection—or trigger—systems at high-throughput scientific facilities such as the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider must process extremely high-rate data streams under stringent bandwidth, latency, and storage constraints. Yet these systems are typically designed as static, hand-tuned menus of selection criteria grounded in prior knowledge and simulation. In this work, we further explore the concept of a self-driving trigger, an autonomous data-filtering framework that reallocates resources and adjusts thresholds dynamically in real-time to optimize signal efficiency, rate stability, and computational cost as instrumentation and environmental conditions evolve. We introduce a benchmark ecosystem to emulate realistic collider scenarios and demonstrate real-time optimization of a menu including canonical energy sum triggers as well as modern anomaly-detection algorithms that target non-standard event topologies using machine learning. Using simulated data streams and publicly available collision data from the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment, we demonstrate the capability to dynamically and automatically optimize trigger performance under specific cost objectives without manual retuning. Our adaptive strategy shifts trigger design from static menus with heuristic tuning to intelligent, automated, data-driven control, unlocking greater flexibility and discovery potential in future high-energy physics analyses.

Emami, Shaghayegh [Michigan U.] (ORCID:00090007589↗

DOE OSTI2023

Environmental risks and opportunities of orphaned oil and gas wells in the United States

Abstract Hundreds of thousands of documented and undocumented orphaned oil and gas wells exist in the United States (U.S.). These wells have the potential to contaminate water supplies, degrade ecosystems, and emit methane and other air pollutants. Thus, orphaned wells present risks to climate stability and to environmental and human health, which can be reduced by plugging. To quantify environmental risks and opportunities of well plugging at the national level, we analyze data on 81 857 documented orphaned wells across the U.S. We find that > 4.6 million people live within 1 km of a documented orphaned well. 35% of the documented orphaned wells are located within 1 km of a domestic groundwater well, yet only 8% of the wells have groundwater quality data within a 1 km radius. Methane emissions from the documented orphaned wells represent approximately 3%–6% of total U.S. methane emissions from abandoned oil and gas wells, but this estimate is based on measurements at < 0.03% of U.S. abandoned wells. 91% of the documented orphaned wells overlie formations favorable for geologic storage of carbon dioxide and hydrogen, meaning that orphaned well plugging can reduce leakage risks from future storage projects. Finally, we estimate plugging costs for documented orphaned wells to exceed the $4.7 billion federal funding by 30%–80%, emphasizing the importance of prioritizing federal spending on wells with large remediation benefits. Overall, environmental monitoring data are not extensive enough to quantify risks, especially those related to air and water quality and human health. Plugging orphaned wells can provide opportunities for geologic storage of carbon dioxide and hydrogen and geothermal energy development, thereby facilitating efforts to transition to net-zero energy systems. Our analysis on environmental risks and opportunities of orphaned wells provides a framework that can be used to manage the millions of documented and undocumented orphaned wells in the U.S. and abroad.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Perennial grass bioenergy cropping systems: Impacts on soil fauna and implications for soil carbon accrual

ABSTRACT Perennial grass energy crop production is necessary for the successful and sustainable expansion of bioenergy in North America. Numerous environmental advantages are associated with perennial grass cropping systems, including their potential to promote soil carbon accrual. Despite growing research interest in the abiotic and biotic factors driving soil carbon cycling within perennial grass cropping systems, soil fauna remain a critical yet largely unexplored component of these ecosystems. By regulating microbial activity and organic matter decomposition dynamics, soil fauna influence soil carbon stability with potentially significant implications for soil carbon accrual. We begin by reviewing the diverse, predominantly indirect effects of soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics in the context of perennial grass cropping systems. Since the impacts of perennial grass energy crop production on soil fauna will mediate their potential contributions to soil carbon accrual, we then discuss how perennial grass energy crop traits, diversity, and management influence soil fauna community structure and activity. We assert that continued research into the interactions of soil fauna, microbes, and organic matter will be important for advancing our understanding of soil carbon dynamics in perennial grass cropping systems. Furthermore, explicit consideration of soil faunal effects on soil carbon can improve our ability to predict changes in soil carbon following perennial grass cropping system establishment. We conclude by addressing the major knowledge gaps that should be prioritized to better understand and model the complex connections between perennial grass bioenergy systems, soil fauna, and carbon accrual.

sustainability↗

NASA NTRS2005

Effect of Stability on Mixing in Open Canopies

In open canopies, the within-canopy flux from the ground surface and understory can account for a significant fraction of the total flux above the canopy. This study incorporates the important influence of within-canopy stability on turbulent mixing and subcanopy fluxes into a first-order closure scheme. Toward this goal, we analyze within-canopy eddy-correlation data from the old aspen site in the Boreal Ecosystem - Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) and a mature ponderosa pine site in Central Oregon, USA. A formulation of within-canopy transport is framed in terms of a stability- dependent mixing length, which approaches Monin-Obukhov similarity theory above the canopy roughness sublayer. The new simple formulation is an improvement upon the usual neglect of the influence of within-canopy stability in simple models. However, frequent well-defined cold air drainage within the pine subcanopy inversion reduces the utility of simple models for nocturnal transport. Other shortcomings of the formulation are discussed.

Lee, Young-Hee↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Fisheries Biologists Can Facilitate the Clean Energy Transition

Abstract Fisheries and aquatic biologists play a critical role in creating environmentally protective hydropower flow requirements that govern flow timing, frequency, magnitude, and rate of change. Hydropower's role in the U.S. electrical grid is expected to evolve in response to increased wind and solar generation as hydropower will be called upon to quickly ramp up and down in response to changes in wind and solar generation. For this reason, hydropower is expected to have increased value as fossil generation is phased out, even as rapid flow fluctuations linked with hydropower flexibility may strand fish, alter habitat, and create unsafe recreational conditions. We face a new challenge in facilitating the renewable energy transition—designing environmental flow requirements that protect against the impacts of flow fluctuations while allowing adequate hydropower flexibility to support a stable grid. In this paper, we discuss hydropower environmental flow requirements, operational flexibility, and electrical grid stability, their potential interactions, and opportunities to align environmental and power system needs to support healthy ecosystems, multiple water uses, and decarbonization of the electric grid.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Effects of root litter traits on soil organic matter dynamics depend on decay stage and root branching order

Decaying roots contribute disproportionately to soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in many ecosystems, yet few studies have examined the afterlife effects of root trait variability on the formation, stability and mineralization of SOC. In order to assess how root functional class (absorptive vs. transport) and mycorrhizal association (ectomycorrhizal vs. arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi) affect both formation and loss of SOC, we decayed lower-order absorptive (orders 1–2) and higher-order transport (orders 3–4) roots from six arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) and six ectomycorrhizal (EcM) associated hardwood tree species in an isotopically distinct soil under laboratory conditions. We found that root litter effects on SOC differed significantly among root functional classes and mycorrhizal types. AM absorptive and transport roots (high in nitrogen and soluble compounds) contributed more to the formation of new mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC), but also contributed to higher mineralization of native SOC (via priming effects). Moreover, absorptive AM roots formed MAOC gradually and rates saturated, whereas ECM roots formed MAOC more quickly, despite slower decay (via greater formation efficiency). Altogether, these findings demonstrate how different combinations of root traits might contribute to soil C balance, and that failure to account for the chemical and morphological heterogeneity of roots, as well their interactions with microbes over time, may lead to incorrect projections of SOC stocks and turnover.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Preliminary Screening of Features, Events, and Processes for an Arctic-Focused Climate Intervention Performance Assessment

Geoengineering, the deliberate large-scale intervention in Earth's climate system, holds significant potential in the rapidly warming Arctic, where temperatures currently rise at more than twice the global average, accelerating ice sheet and permafrost melt. This contributes to global sea-level rise and releases methane, a potent greenhouse gas. Strategies like solar radiation management (SRM) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) could mitigate these effects; for instance, SRM techniques aim to reflect a portion of the sun's energy back into space, potentially slowing ice melt and stabilizing permafrost. However, geoengineering in the Arctic faces challenges, including potential unintended consequences on the fragile ecosystem, disruption of local weather patterns, and impacts on indigenous communities. Effective governance requires robust international cooperation, environmental impact assessments, and regulatory frameworks. Despite these challenges, geoengineering's potential benefits make it a critical research area. This report explores application of the Performance Assessment (PA) methodology to Arctic Climate Intervention, providing an initial screening of relevant features, events, and processes (FEPs). At the core of the PA approach is the identification and evaluation of FEPs that could impact the performance of the intervention scheme. Here we provide an initial screening of FEPs to consider in the application of PA to Arctic Climate Intervention.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Linking Plant and Microbial Traits to Soil Carbon for Reliable and Resilient Bioenergy Systems

Bioenergy systems in the United States offer a dual opportunity to supply renewable feedstocks while enhancing ecosystem services such as hydrologic regulation, erosion control, and soil carbon (C) storage. National assessments highlight the potential to grow perennial energy crops to improve soil function and ecosystem resilience. Realizing this potential requires understanding the ecological mechanisms that govern how C is added, transformed, and stabilized in soils. Plant traits determine the quantity, depth, and chemistry of organic inputs, while microbial processes—including carbon use efficiency, necromass formation, and trophic interactions—mediate their transformation and partitioning among soil carbon pools. These biological pathways are shaped by soil physical and chemical properties, including aggregation, texture, and mineralogy, and by environmental drivers such as temperature, moisture, and disturbance, leading to context-dependent outcomes across landscapes. Management practices that diversify feedstocks, minimize disturbance, and maintain soil cover can promote both biomass production and C retention, while microbial amendments and rhizosphere engineering offer emerging, but often context-dependent, tools to optimize plant–microbe interactions. Trade-offs between biomass yield and soil carbon storage may arise when systems favor rapid aboveground productivity at the expense of belowground inputs and microbial processing, underscoring the importance of trait combinations that support both functions. Advances in monitoring, reporting, and verification—spanning precision agriculture, remote sensing, and biosensing—are improving predictive capacity through microbial-explicit process models and model–experiment (ModEx) frameworks. By connecting soil, plant, and microbial processes with advances in modeling and biosensing, this review outlines research priorities focused on trait-based parameterization and ModEx integration. These priorities will support the design of bioenergy systems that are both reliable and resilient, enhancing renewable energy production and ecosystem sustainability.

bioenergy systems↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental controls on the kinetics of iron-sulfur cluster nucleation and nanoparticle formation

Anoxic, sulfidic conditions have been prevalent since the early Proterozoic and favor aqueous iron-sulfur (FeS aq ) clusters as a major fraction of the soluble, reduced iron and sulfur pool. FeS aq cluster formation and nucleation is driven by the high affinity between ferrous iron (Fe(II)) and sulfide (HS − ), ultimately yielding particles that precipitate as iron sulfide minerals. FeS aq clusters were recently shown to be bioavailable sources of iron and sulfur for a variety of anaerobes, yet little is known of the factors that influence the kinetics of their formation and nucleation. Here we apply computational and spectroscopic approaches to investigate the dynamics of FeS aq nucleation, cluster growth, precipitation, and redissolution as a function of Fe(II)/HS − concentration, temperature, and pH. Experiments were conducted under excess HS − to mimic euxinic conditions common to contemporary anaerobic aquatic ecosystems and those of the Proterozoic. Density functional theory calculations reveal the key role of water oxygen-iron interactions in stabilizing small FeS aq clusters and promoting solubility. Dynamic light scattering revealed a concentration-dependent increase in the kinetics of FeS aq nucleation and cluster aggregation. Increasing temperature promoted FeS aq cluster nucleation and aggregation while also enhancing dissolution. Alkaline pH also promoted FeS aq nucleation and cluster aggregation. At 25 °C, pH 7.0, and at reactant concentrations of 30 µM, FeS aq clusters < 10 nm in diameter remained in solution for > 2 h. These results underscore the importance of temperature, pH, and reactant concentration in the kinetics of FeS aq nucleation and cluster growth that, in turn, influence their bioavailability in anaerobic ecosystems.

Aquatic ecosystems↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microbial polyphenol metabolism is part of the thawing permafrost carbon cycle

Abstract With rising global temperatures, permafrost carbon stores are vulnerable to microbial degradation. The enzyme latch theory states that polyphenols should accumulate in saturated peatlands due to diminished phenol oxidase activity, inhibiting resident microbes and promoting carbon stabilization. Pairing microbiome and geochemical measurements along a permafrost thaw-induced saturation gradient in Stordalen Mire, a model Arctic peatland, we confirmed a negative relationship between phenol oxidase expression and saturation but failed to support other trends predicted by the enzyme latch. To inventory alternative polyphenol removal strategies, we built CAMPER, a gene annotation tool leveraging polyphenol enzyme knowledge gleaned across microbial ecosystems. Applying CAMPER to genome-resolved metatranscriptomes, we identified genes for diverse polyphenol-active enzymes expressed by various microbial lineages under a range of redox conditions. This shifts the paradigm that polyphenols stabilize carbon in saturated soils and highlights the need to consider both oxic and anoxic polyphenol metabolisms to understand carbon cycling in changing ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Irrigation-Driven Groundwater Depletion in the Ganges-Brahmaputra Basin Decreases the Streamflow in the Bay of Bengal

Ganges and Brahmaputra, two of Asia’s most prominent rivers, have a crucial role in Southeast Asia’s geopolitics and economy and are home to one of the world’s biggest marine ecosystems. Irrigation-driven groundwater depletion and climate change affect the Ganges-Brahmaputra’s hydrology, threatening the stability of the Bay of Bengal. Here, we quantify, using results from a land reanalysis, the impacts of a changing climate and intensive irrigation on the surface water flowing into the Bay of Bengal. The effects of such activities mostly occurring in the Ganges basin, either intensified or lessened depending on the area by the climatic conditions, decrease freshwater flow into the bay by up to 1200 m 3 /s/year. While the increase in precipitation in the Ganges basin reduces the effects of groundwater depletion on the streamflow, the decrease in precipitation and the snowmelt decline in the Brahmaputra basin exacerbate streamflow reduction due to groundwater depletion at the delta.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2021

Consequences of Altered Root Nutrient Uptake for Soil Carbon Stabilization (Final Report)

Objectives: The primary objectives of this project are to improve our understanding of tropical forest belowground processes, and to increase representation of this biome in ecosystem-scale and global C cycle models. Belowground dynamics present a major source of uncertainty inhibiting our ability to predict C cycle responses to climate change. Representation of tropical forests in these models is particularly lacking, even though these ecosystems hold >25% of terrestrial C stocks. While the majority of humid tropical forests exist on relatively infertile soils (i.e. poor in rock-derived nutrients), enormous gradients in soil nutrient availability exist at landscape-scales due to shifts in geology and soil order. Soil fertility is likely to greatly influence how tropical soil C storage will respond to the declines in precipitation predicted for the tropics. In particular, root dynamics vary across soil fertility gradients, with roots representing the major input of C to subsurface soils. Root characteristics related to soil fertility include biomass, turnover, C exudates, tissue chemistry, and nutrient uptake rates, with each of these likely sensitive to changes in moisture. The proposed project will fully integrate field research with an existing ecosystem model to assess potential effects of drying on belowground tropical C dynamics across a range of soil fertilities. Project Description:. This project will identify key linkages among soil fertility, root nutrient uptake, root dynamics, and soil C storage. The hypothesized framework for understanding these linkages is: Tropical rainforest roots in relatively fertile soils have lesser root biomass, faster turnover, fewer exudates, and improved root tissue quality relative to infertile sites, all resulting from increased root nutrient uptake. Ultimately, these root characteristics in fertile soils promote proportionally greater long-term soil C storage in organo-mineral associations. Specifically, lower root exudates and improved root tissue quality in fertile soils reduce microbial respiration of extant soil C (i.e. “priming) and increase microbial C use efficiency, leading to sorption of protein-rich microbial and plant organic matter on soil mineral surfaces. However, the larger pools of mineral-associated C in fertile tropical soils are more vulnerable to decreased rainfall than smaller C pools in infertile soils, in part because of the lesser root biomass, faster turnover, and softer, more labile root tissues. Also, the shallower lateral rooting structures typical in fertile soils experience greater desiccation and death than deeper roots in infertile sites, with little short-term adaptation to drying.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Warming Stimulates Iron-Mediated Carbon and Nutrient Cycling in Mineral-Poor Peatlands

We know that iron (Fe) plays a key role in elemental cycling at terrestrial–aquatic interfaces by stabilizing carbon (C), phosphorus (P), and nutrient cations through physicochemical associations and by potentially releasing these elements following the reduction of Fe(III) to Fe(II). However, the ecosystem-scale importance of Fe redox cycling and its responses to climate change remain unclear in precipitation-fed peatlands (bogs), C-rich wetlands with very low mineral content. We tested impacts of Fe redox cycling on C and nutrient release in two bogs in northern Minnesota and in Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE), an ecosystem-scale warming experiment. Concentrations of Fe(III) declined from the peat surface to 50 cm depth (31 to 0.5 µmol g -1 ) and co-occurred with Fe(II) (10 to 30 µmol g -1 ). Chemical reduction of Fe(III) released C and P from variably saturated (0–30 cm) peat (106–1006 µmol C g -1 ; 0.6–5 µmol P g -1 ), and Fe-bound C was similar to previous measurements from upland mineral soils. Concentrations of Fe(II) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were strongly (R 2 = 0.56–0.78) and positively correlated in water samples measured at SPRUCE enclosure outlets and ambient near-surface porewater. Concentrations of Fe(II) also correlated positively with P at warmer SPRUCE temperature treatments and increased with experimental warming, but stabilized at the highest temperature treatments as water depth declined. Although bogs have low total mineral content, mass balance measurements indicated that atmospheric deposition could in principle sustain significant Fe cycling and hydrologic losses in these ecosystems. Overall, Fe redox cycling significantly impacted C and nutrient dynamics in these mineral-poor bogs, contributing to strong correlations between Fe(II) and DOC in water samples. Increased Fe(III) reduction with warmer temperatures will likely promote peatland C and nutrient release, impacting ecosystem C budgets both directly and indirectly by enhancing decomposition and productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2003

Pigment composition and concentrations within the plant (Ceratophyllum demersum L.) component of the STS-89 C.E.B.A.S. Mini-Module spaceflight experiment

The Closed Equilibrated Biological Aquatic System (C.E.B.A.S.) Mini-Module, a Space Shuttle middeck locker payload which supports a variety of aquatic inhabitants (fish, snails, plants and bacteria) in an enclosed 8.6 L chamber, was tested for its biological stability in microgravity. The aquatic plant, Ceratophyllum demersum L., was critical for the vitality and functioning of this artificial mini-ecosystem. Its photosynthetic pigment concentrations were of interest due to their light harvesting and protective functions. "Post-flight" chlorophyll and carotenoid concentrations within Ceratophyllum apical segments were directly related to the quantities of light received in the experiments, with microgravity exposure (STS-89) failing to account for any significant deviation from ground control studies. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd on behalf of COSPAR.

short duration↗

NASA NTRS2013

EO-1 Hyperion Reflectance Time Series at Calibration and Validation Sites: Stability and Sensitivity to Seasonal Dynamics

This study evaluated Earth Observing 1 (EO-1) Hyperion reflectance time series at established calibration sites to assess the instrument stability and suitability for monitoring vegetation functional parameters. Our analysis using three pseudo-invariant calibration sites in North America indicated that the reflectance time series are devoid of apparent spectral trends and their stability consistently is within 2.5-5 percent throughout most of the spectral range spanning the 12-plus year data record. Using three vegetated sites instrumented with eddy covariance towers, the Hyperion reflectance time series were evaluated for their ability to determine important variables of ecosystem function. A number of narrowband and derivative vegetation indices (VI) closely described the seasonal profiles in vegetation function and ecosystem carbon exchange (e.g., net and gross ecosystem productivity) in three very different ecosystems, including a hardwood forest and tallgrass prairie in North America, and a Miombo woodland in Africa. Our results demonstrate the potential for scaling the carbon flux tower measurements to local and regional landscape levels. The VIs with stronger relationships to the CO2 parameters were derived using continuous reflectance spectra and included wavelengths associated with chlorophyll content and/or chlorophyll fluorescence. Since these indices cannot be calculated from broadband multispectral instrument data, the opportunity to exploit these spectrometer-based VIs in the future will depend on the launch of satellites such as EnMAP and HyspIRI. This study highlights the practical utility of space-borne spectrometers for characterization of the spectral stability and uniformity of the calibration sites in support of sensor cross-comparisons, and demonstrates the potential of narrowband VIs to track and spatially extend ecosystem functional status as well as carbon processes measured at flux towers.

Calibration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Dataset for Cruz-O'Byrne et al (2026): "Divergent biogeochemical responses in upland coastal forest soils to repeated flooding and shifts in water chemistry"

Hydrologic disturbances from accelerated sea-level rise and the increasing frequency and intensity of storms and tidal flooding are altering biogeochemical processes in upland coastal forests, transforming these ecosystems into wetlands. However, the initial effects of flooding on belowground biogeochemistry and the mechanisms driving greenhouse gas dynamics and soil organic matter stability during the early stages of this transition remain poorly understood. This dataset presents the results of a mesocosm experiment conducted in a controlled, highly instrumented laboratory environment, in which freshwater and brackish water pulses were applied to intact soil monoliths from a temperate upland coastal forest to examine how floodwater chemistry influences soil biogeochemistry and organo-mineral interactions. All data files are plain-text CSV (comma-separated value), and no special software is required to read them. Details about the content of each file are available in the document “Dataset_readme”. The dataset consists of the following data: • rcruzobyrne_moisture: Soil volumetric water content (VWC) • rcruzobyrne_GHG: Headspace greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration and fluxes • rcruzobyrne_methane_isotopes: Headspace methane isotope signature • rcruzobyrne_porewater: Porewater chemistry • rcruzobyrne_CDOM: Porewater colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) • rcruzobyrne_FTIR: Soil Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy Details of the experimental setup, data collection, and data analysis are provided in the manuscript by Cruz-O’Byrne et al (2026) Divergent biogeochemical responses in upland coastal forest soils to repeated flooding and shifts in water chemistry. Biogeochemistry. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10533-026-01340-0

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > GREENHOUSE GAS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Shallow soils are warmer under trees and tall shrubs across Arctic and Boreal ecosystems

Soils are warming as air temperatures rise across the Arctic and Boreal region concurrent with the expansion of tall-statured shrubs and trees in the tundra. Changes in vegetation structure and function are expected to alter soil thermal regimes, thereby modifying climate feedbacks related to permafrost thaw and carbon cycling. However, current understanding of vegetation impacts on soil temperature is limited to local or regional scales and lacks the generality necessary to predict soil warming and permafrost stability on a pan-Arctic scale. Here we synthesize shallow soil and air temperature observations with broad spatial and temporal coverage collected across 106 sites representing nine different vegetation types in the permafrost region. We showed ecosystems with tall-statured shrubs and trees (> 40 cm) have warmer shallow soils than those with short-statured tundra vegetation when normalized to a constant air temperature. In tree and tall shrub vegetation types, cooler temperatures in the warm season do not lead to cooler mean annual soil temperature indicating that ground thermal regimes in the cold-season rather than the warm-season are most critical for predicting soil warming in ecosystems underlain by permafrost. Our results suggest that the expansion of tall shrubs and trees into tundra regions can amplify shallow soil warming, and could increase the potential for increased seasonal thaw depth and increase soil carbon cycling rates and lead to increased carbon dioxide loss and further permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗