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DOE OSTI2025

Factors influencing recent trends in retail electricity prices in the United States

This study analyzes the primary drivers of recent state-level trends in U.S. retail electricity prices. We summarize pricing trends, explore descriptive relationships, and employ regression models to quantify the influence of various factors. Although the recent national rise in retail prices has largely tracked inflation, state-level trends vary widely. We identify a number of factors that explain trends in subsets of states. States with the greatest price increases typically exhibited shrinking customer loads—partially linked to growth in net metered behind-the-meter solar—and had renewables portfolio standards (RPS) in concert with relatively costly incremental renewable energy supplies. By contrast, recent utility-scale wind and solar deployment that occurred outside RPS programs (but that benefited from tax incentives) had no discernible impact on increased retail prices. Hurricanes, storms and wildfires also contributed to sizable price increases in some states, most notably in California, where wildfire risk mitigation and liability insurance were major cost drivers. Fluctuations in natural gas prices—particularly following the onset of the Ukraine-Russia war—further contributed to sharp price increases through 2022–2023 in many states, with moderation in 2024. The relative influence of these factors varies across states and over time, and relationships may change in the future. Nonetheless, the findings underscore the diverse set of price determinants and highlight the need for continued research to inform effective policy and ensure customer affordability.

Customer load↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage solar and wind forecast error. Because solar and wind forecast errors tend to be weakly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the benefits of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeastern United States, in scenarios in which solar and wind generation ranges from 34% to 65% of total generation. It finds that day-ahead forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity (6%-10% of total capacity), but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce these requirements (by 6%-29%). It finds that, in economic terms, the value of forecast error reserve sharing ($\$$0.09-$\$$1.24 billion per year, $\$$0.12-$\$$1.68/MWh of load across scenarios) tends to decline with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower reserve and energy prices. Even with declines in reserve prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value, though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Magnetic Field Amplification by a Plasma Cavitation Instability in Relativistic Shock Precursors

Abstract Plasma streaming instabilities play an important role in magnetic field amplification and particle acceleration in relativistic shocks and their environments. However, in the far shock precursor region where accelerated particles constitute a highly relativistic and dilute beam, streaming instabilities typically become inefficient and operate at very small scales when compared to the gyroradii of the beam particles. We report on a plasma cavitation instability that is driven by dilute relativistic beams and can increase both the magnetic field strength and coherence scale by orders of magnitude to reach near-equipartition values with the beam energy density. This instability grows after the development of the Weibel instability and is associated with the asymmetric response of background leptons and ions to the beam current. The resulting net inductive electric field drives a strong energy asymmetry between positively and negatively charged beam species. Large-scale particle-in-cell simulations are used to verify analytical predictions for the growth and saturation level of the instability and indicate that it is robust over a wide range of conditions, including those associated with pair-loaded plasmas. These results can have important implications for the magnetization and structure of shocks in gamma-ray bursts, and more generally for magnetic field amplification and asymmetric scattering of relativistic charged particles in plasma astrophysical environments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Futures for electrochromic windows on high performance houses in arid, cold climates

This study investigates high performance electrochromic windows used on a passive house and residential dwelling to IECC 2021 (i.e., IECC dwelling). In the lab, the electrochromic film switches transmitted solar heat gain coefficient (SHGC) from 0.09 to 0.7 and visible transmittance from 0.15 to 0.82 with power consumption of 1.23 W/m 2 during switching times less than 3 minutes. We extrapolate these results to a window assembly. Building energy models of the houses were evaluated in Santa Fe, New Mexico. A Monte Carlo analysis for 2020, 2040, 2060, and 2080 was conducted for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5. Cases with and without the electrochromic windows and with and without electricity were used to determine energy use intensity and hours beyond thermal safety thresholds. The passive house showed 1.3-3.1% mean energy savings and the IECC dwelling 4.4-5.1% with electrochromic efficiency benefits growing into the future for both cases. Even so, overall savings decrease into the future for the passive house, due to growth in cooling load being dominant, conversely overall energy savings increase into the future for the IECC dwelling due to heating loads being dominant. For thermal resilience, the passive house exhibited a mean percent decrease of 0.02-0.31% hours in the extreme caution (i.e., > 32.2 °C, ≤ 39.4 °C) range while the IECC dwelling exhibited 0.38-4.38%. The study therefore shows that electrochromic windows will have smaller benefits for the passive house in comparison to the IECC dwelling. The relationship between electrochromic windows is shown to have a complex relationship between house efficiency and climate change by these results.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Charting a Path for Research and Development of Reliability and Resilience in South Asia's Power Sector

The power sector in South Asia faces several trends with the potential to impact its reliability and resilience. Rapidly increasing demand, coupled with an increasing reliance on variable renewable resources and the circular linkages with climate change points to an increasing need to understand the extent of climate impacts on both the electricity load and the electricity generation. These larger shifts are also coupled with opportunities near the grid edge that could have a large impact on system planning and operations, such as electrification of the transport sector, increased reliance on buildings to serve a broader set of loads and be flexible resources for utilities, more efficient use of industrial and agricultural loads, and growth in distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar and batteries. It is critical that as this transformation takes place that expectations for reliability and resilience of the grid continue to increase in the region. The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE), composed of USAID, the US Department of Energy, and three national laboratories, has been tasked with providing an overview of the research and development resources necessary to understand the upcoming challenges for the power system as it pertains to reliability and resilience. This discussion paper identifies some of the key trends and connections that are important for power sector reliability and resilience and provides a starting point for eliciting feedback from power sector stakeholders about their experiences and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Future Demand for EV Charging Infrastructure [Slides]

U.S. climate goals for economy-wide net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 require rapid decarbonization of the light-duty vehicle fleet and plug-in electric vehicles (EVs) are poised to become the preferred technology for achieving this end. Considerable investments in public and private EV charging infrastructure will be needed to support widespread adoption, however, guidance is lacking on when, where, and what types of chargers will be needed. In this PLMA Load Management Dialogue session, researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) discuss findings from a recent quantitative assessment of the charging network requirements to support high penetrations of light-duty EVs by 2030. The study produced multiple detailed network growth trajectories at the national, state, and local levels that serve as a guidepost for future planning. In addition, an overview of NREL's publicly accessible EV infrastructure tools and data sets, designed to support planning and decision-making for EV infrastructure stakeholders, is provided.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Theory and application of radiation boundary operators

A succinct unified review is provided of the theory of radiation boundary operators. With the recent introduction of the on-surface radiation condition (OSRC) method and the continued growth of finite-difference and finite-element techniques for modeling electromagnetic wave scattering problems, the understanding and use of radiation boundary operators has become increasingly important. Results are presented to illustrate the application of radiation boundary operators in both these areas. Recent OSRC results include analysis of the scattering behavior of both electrically small and large cylinders, a reactively loaded acoustic sphere, and a simple reentrant duct. Radiation boundary operator results include the demonstration of the effectiveness of higher-order operators in truncating finite-difference time-domain grids.

Moore, Thomas G.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pilot Development Progress to Demonstrate Electric Thermal Energy Storage (ETES) Using Low-Cost Particles

The rapid growth of future energy demand increases the need to economically store electrical energy over durations up to several days in long-duration energy storage (LDES) applications. LDES can reduce the grid stress for improving the resilience of the grid. The integration of renewable power and storage has several significant and positive impacts including expanding the renewable energy portion of electricity generation, meeting peak-load demand, and coordinating supply and demand. Several energy storage approaches including mechanical, chemical and electrochemical methods are currently deployed or under development. However, LDES requirements pose unique challenges for scalability, energy capacity, and cost. Thermal energy storage (TES) has the ability to store a large capacity of energy with improved site flexibility compared to incumbent LDES technologies (i.e., pumped hydro) and has attracted significant interest. Our development in TES technology using solid particles as the storage medium has shown feasibility and potential in serving LDES purposes. Particle TES has various advantages over commercialized molten nitrate salt TES and has emerged as a promising storage technology originating from Generation 3 concentrating solar power (CSP) development. Stable, inexpensive silica sand produced in the Midwestern U.S. was identified as a suitable storage medium and has been validated through lab heating and cycling tests. We have successfully developed particle TES for bidirectional electric energy storage to broaden the applications for TES beyond CSP technologies and into standalone electric-thermal energy storage (ETES) systems. Key component designs and performance were verified with prototype testing and model simulations. The ETES system uses high-temperature, low-cost particle thermal energy storage coupled with a unique pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger that supports a high-efficiency, air-Brayton combined power cycle. At times of low energy demand or high renewable production, an electric particle heater heats large quantities of solid particles to high temperatures in excess of 1100 degrees C. The particles are stored in internally insulated silos. At times of high electricity demand, the hot particles are gravity-fed through the heat exchanger where stored thermal energy is transferred to the power cycle working fluid to drive the gas turbine power generation system, thereby converting the thermal energy back into electricity for the grid. The cold particles leaving the heat exchanger are returned to the storage silos by a well-insulated particle conveyor. This ETES technology using particle TES can be sited anywhere and is predicted to be economic and efficient. Moreover, this ETES technology could be co-located with a retired coal or gas plant to leverage existing power generation and grid infrastructure. Our work has focused on the development of each of the key components (e.g., the electric particle heater, particle storage silos, and the particle-to-gas pressurized fluidized bed heat exchanger) through conceptual designs, prototype testing, and computational modeling. These developments demonstrate technological feasibility and are an important step towards the next phase of development of this promising LDES technology. This presentation will show the progress in developing a pilot demonstration of the ETES system on a commercially relevant scale.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Novel PCM-based fin and tube heat exchanger system for building heating and cooling applications

In the United States, the building sector accounts for 40% of all energy use, and buildings are responsible for more than two-thirds of electricity consumption. Buildings remain the major driver of energy-related carbon emissions, and such emissions are projected to increase in the years ahead because of urbanization and population growth. To accomplish the low carbon energy goal in the building sector, phase change material (PCM)–based thermal energy storage (TES) is increasingly being adopted because it offers several advantages, such as reducing building peak load and energy consumption, enabling large scale deployment of renewables, and improving grid stability. The integration of TES with thermally anisotropic building envelopes (TABEs) is a promising solution because, TABE can redirect natural thermal energy from a building using hydronic loops to TES, and the stored energy can be used later for heating and cooling applications. In this study, we experimentally investigate the thermal performance of a novel fin-tube heat exchanger TES system designed for potential integration with a TABE. An experimental rig for a 5-gal PCM fin-tube heat exchanger system with water as the heat transfer medium is described which records temperatures at the heated and cooled boundaries of the system. Experimental observations provide insight into the role a TES system can play in offsetting a building’s heating and cooling demand and also offer a means to characterize the performance of PCMs for building applications. The scale and study presented in this work will help in the design of future thermal storage systems optimized for storage capacity while also accounting for overall system costs for building applications.

Tamraparni, Achutha↗

DOE OSTI2024

Residential Water Heating Demand Side Management (DSM) - South Africa

The electricity crisis in South Africa has deteriorated significantly, with the country experiencing frequent and prolonged rolling blackouts. These outages have severe economic repercussions, leading to decreased growth and productivity. Demand Side Management (DSM), particularly focusing on electric water heaters due to their significant energy consumption and peak demand contribution, is identified as a key strategy. The study aims to assess opportunities for DSM programs targeting water heating to reduce energy consumption and peak demand. It entails developing a bottom-up simulation model to establish a baseline scenario of water heating electricity load demand in 2023 and 2033, identifying technologies for energy reduction, estimating the impacts of a selected number of measures and providing recommendations to inform policy makers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Transitioning to Hybrid Power Plants

Hybrid power plants are power generation systems that combine two or more types of electricity generation or storage, creating systems where the optimal dispatch provides more benefits that the sum of the individual components can. These plants exemplify the interconnected challenges of grid modernization. On one hand, rapid increase in deployment and enhanced controllability of renewable energy assets is needed to meet clean energy targets, but on the other, increasing electrification makes it more difficult to manage load and growth in the number of endpoints and stakeholders involved with hybrid plants complicates asset management and cybersecurity. This talk will cover trends in hybrid power plant technologies and deployments, identify future prospects for hybrid systems, and discuss the challenges and research opportunities that exist to transition from the traditional power grids of today to smart, distributed, hybrid power grids we may see in the next few decades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More / All Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) Vehicle Sensitivities to Propulsion and Power Performance

Battery power and energy density are important parameters for the emerging concepts for more / all-electric vehicles. Electric propulsion and power system performance is also important. To better understand how electric propulsion and power systems component performance influences overall vehicle design, a sensitivity assessment was performed noting changes in vehicle gross weight and energy usage. Updated versions of the Revolutionary Vertical lift Technology (RVLT) Project vertical take-off and landing (VTOL) urban air mobility (UAM) reference vehicles and missions were used. NASA electric vehicle studies are discussed which were used to help select the range of electric propulsion and power system performance parameters used in this assessment. Thermal management systems (TMS) considerations are also important; new and innovative power management and distribution systems can reduce electric system weight and losses, reducing thermal management constraints often imposed by electric systems modest maximum use temperatures. Vehicles with higher disk loadings (smaller rotors) require higher power levels per unit weight for VTOL operations, which make them more sensitive to electric system weights and efficiencies. Battery, all-electric vehicles show different sensitivities to component performance than turboelectric or hybrids systems. Battery, all-electric propulsion systems may increase vehicle weight and size, but still results in lower mission energy usage than their hydrocarbon-fueled versions. Significant vehicle weight growth to electric propulsion and power system power-to-weight reductions also occurs at different levels among the various concepts. From these results, one can more readily identify required component performance levels, potential component choices or, research and development paths.

Electric Propulsion Systems (Aircraft)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

More / All Electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) Vehicle Sensitivities to Propulsion and Power Performance

electric propulsion systems (aircraft) mission ana↗

DOE OSTI2021

Current Status and Future Directions of All-Solid-State Batteries with Lithium Metal Anodes, Sulfide Electrolytes, and Layered Ternary Oxide Cathodes

All-solid-state batteries (ASSBs) offer great promise as a next-generation energy storage technology with higher energy density, wider operating temperature range, and improved safety for electric vehicles. ASSBs employing lithium metal anodes (Li), sulfide-based solid-state electrolytes (SSE), and Ni-rich layered transition metal oxide cathodes (LiMO 2 , M = Ni, Mn, Co, Al) are particularly promising due to its superior electrochemical performance compared to other solid-electrolyte systems. However, the battery cycle life at high cathode mass loading and high current is still limited because the failure mechanism is not fully understood. Lithium dendrite growth at the anode or inside a solid electrolyte still represents as a serious risk of cell failure. Interfacial resistance increases attributed to electrolyte decomposition and interfacial void formation at both cathode–electrolyte and anode–electrolyte interfaces lead to gradual capacity fading. In this Review, we present the fundamental challenges and recent scientific understandings of each component in ASSBs. The novel diagnostic tools for these components, especially the interfaces buried under the surface that are often hard for characterization are mainly examined. Lastly, we offer a perspective for future research directions. We hope this Review will provide a timely snapshot of state-of-the-art research progress in ASSBs to accelerate the development of ASSBs.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS1991

Environmental fatigue of an Al-Li-Cu alloy. Part 1: Intrinsic crack propagation kinetics in hydrogenous environments

Deleterious environmental effects on steady-state, intrinsic fatigue crack propagation (FCP) rates (da/dN) in peak aged Al-Li-Cu alloy 2090 are established by electrical potential monitoring of short cracks with programmed constant delta K and K(sub max) loading. The da/dN are equally unaffected by vacuum, purified helium, and oxygen but are accelerated in order of decreasing effectiveness by aqueous 1 percent NaCl with anodic polarization, pure water vapor, moist air, and NaCl with cathodic polarization. While da/dN depends on delta K(sup 4.0) for the inert gases, water vapor and chloride induced multiple power-laws, and a transition growth rate 'plateau'. Environmental effects are strongest at low delta K. Crack tip damage is ascribed to hydrogen embrittlement because of the following: (1) accelerated da/dN due to part-per-million levels of H2O without condensation; (2) impeded molecular flow model predictions of the measured water vapor pressure dependence of da/dN as affected by mean crack opening; (3) the lack of an effect of film-forming O2; (4) the likelihood for crack tip hydrogen production in NaCl, and (5) the environmental and delta K-process zone volume dependencies of the microscopic cracking modes. For NaCl, growth rates decrease with decreasing loading frequency, with the addition of passivating Li2CO3, and upon cathodic polarization. These variables increase crack surface film stability to reduce hydrogen entry efficiency. The hydrogen environmental FCP resistance of 2090 is similar to other 2000 series alloys and is better than 7075.

Piascik, Robert S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Environmental fatigue of an Al-Li-Cu alloy. I - Intrinsic crack propagation kinetics in hydrogenous environments

Deleterious environmental effects on steady-state, intrinsic fatigue crack propagation (FCP) rates (da/dN) in peak aged Al-Li-Cu alloy 2090 are established by electrical potential monitoring of short cracks with programmed constant delta K and K(sub max) loading. The da/dN are equally unaffected by vacuum, purified helium, and oxygen but are accelerated in order of decreasing effectiveness of aqueous 1 percent NaCl with anodic polarization, pure water vapor, moist air, and NaCl with cathodic polarization. While da/dN depends on delta K(sup 4.0) for the inert gases, water vapor and chloride induced multiple power-laws, and a transition growth rate 'plateau'. Environmental effects are strongest at low delta K. Crack tip damage is ascribed to hydrogen embrittlement because of the following: (1) accelerated da/dN due to part-per-million levels of H2O without condensation; (2) impeded molecular flow model predictions of the measured water vapor pressure dependence of da/dN as affected by mean crack opening; (3) the lack of an effect of film-forming O2; (4) the likelihood for crack tip hydrogen production in NaCl; and (5) the environmental and delta K-process zone volume dependencies of the microscopic cracking modes. For NaCl, growth rates decrease with decreasing loading frequency, with the addition of passivating Li2CO3, and upon cathodic polarization. These variables increase crack surface film stability to reduce hydrogen entry efficiency. The hydrogen environmental FCP resistance of 2090 is similar to other 2000 series alloys and is better than 7075.

Piascik, Robert S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thermal Energy Storage Using Solid Particles for Long-Duration Energy Storage

The rapid growth of renewable energy increases the importance of economically firming the electricity supply from variable solar photovoltaic- and wind-power generators. Energy storage will be the key to manage variability and to bridge the generation gap over time scales of hours or days for high renewable grid integration. The integration of renewable power and storage of excess electricity has several significant and positive impacts including: 1) expanding the renewable energy portion of total electricity generation, 2) improving the peak-load response, and 3) coordinating the electricity supply and demand over the grid. Long-duration energy storage can potentially complement the reduction of fossil-fuel baseload generation that otherwise would risk grid security when a large portion of grid power comes from variable renewable sources. Several energy storage methods are deployed or under development, including mechanical, chemical or electrochemical, and thermal energy storage (TES). Comparing their economic potential for different scales and applications helps identify suitable technology to support high renewable grid integration. Despite the progress of TES technologies developed and deployed with concentrating solar power (CSP) systems, TES has been undervalued for its potential role in electric energy storage. This paper introduces TES methods applicable to grid energy storage and particularly focuses on solid-particle-based TES to serve the purpose of long-duration energy storage (LDES). The objective of this paper is to present a standalone particle-based TES system for electric storage and to show the potential of TES systems for LDES applications over other energy storage methods such as batteries, compressed-air energy storage, or pumped-storage hydropower.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗