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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Long-run Marginal Emission Rates for Electricity - Workbooks for 2021 Cambium Data

These workbooks contain modeled estimates of long-run marginal emission rates (LRMER) for the contiguous United States. The LRMER is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a long-term (i.e., more than several years) change in electrical demand. It incorporates both the projected changes to the electric grid, as well as the potential for an incremental change in electrical demand to influence the structural evolution of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which treats grid assets as fixed. The Levelized LRMER worksheet within each workbook is set up to produce a levelized long-run marginal emission rate based on user-provided inputs. These levelized LRMER values are intended for analysts to use when estimating the emissions induced (or avoided) by a long-term change in end-use electricity demand. There are two workbooks that supply the data at two different geographic resolutions: states and GEA regions (20 regions that are similar to, but not exactly the same as, the US EPA's eGRID regions). For more data underlying these emissions factors, see the Cambium 2021 project at https://cambium.nrel.gov/. For more details on the inputs into the scenarios available in the workbooks, see the Standard Scenarios 2021 Report (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/80641.pdf). This data was produced as part of the Cambium project. For more details about the methodology, see the Cambium Documentation: Version 2021 (https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy22osti/81611.pdf). This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found at https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/cambium.html.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Long-run Marginal CO2 Emission Rates Workbooks for 2020 Standard Scenarios Cambium Data

This dataset has been superseded by a new set of workbooks that can be found here: https://data.nlr.gov/submissions/183 These workbooks contain modeled estimates of long-run marginal CO2 emission rates (LRMER) for the contiguous United States. The LRMER is an estimate of the rate of emissions that would be either induced or avoided by a long-term (i.e., more than several years) change in electrical demand. It incorporates both the projected changes to the electric grid, as well as the potential for an incremental change in electrical demand to influence the structural evolution of the grid (i.e., the building and retiring of capital assets, such as generators and transmission lines). It is therefore distinct from the more-commonly-known short-run marginal, which treats grid assets as fixed. In addition to year-over-year data, the Levelized LRMER worksheet within each workbook is set up to produce a levelized long-run marginal emission rate based on user-provided inputs. These levelized LRMER values are intended for analysts to use when estimating the emissions induced (or avoided) by a long-term change in end-use electricity demand. Three future scenarios are provided in separate workbooks: A Mid-case (i.e., business-as-usual), and two scenarios with relatively higher or lower renewable energy costs. For more details on these scenarios, see the Standard Scenarios 2020 Report ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/77442.pdf ). For more data underlying each scenario, see the Standard Scenarios 2020 project (Cambium data) at https://cambium.nlr.gov/ . This data was produced as part of the Cambium project. For more details about the methodology, see the Cambium Documentation: Version 2020 ( https://www.nlr.gov/docs/fy21osti/78239.pdf ). This data is planned to be updated annually. Information on the latest versions can be found at https://www.nlr.gov/analysis/cambium.html .

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Economic analysis of a nuclear hybrid energy system in a stochastic environment including wind turbines in an electricity grid

The electricity market in the U.S. is moving toward an energy mix including more variable renewable energy (VRE) sources like wind and solar. This increasing VRE penetration is altering the profile of the net electricity demand. Normally, flexible generators (e.g. gas turbines) are used to absorb fluctuations in the electricity demand. Therefore, an increase in VRE also leads to an increase in installed capacity for such flexible generators which, in turn, may increase the price of electricity. Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems (N-R HES) are seen as a solution to this problem. The N-R HES contains a nuclear power plant electrically and/or thermally linked to an industrial process (IP). This paper demonstrates a new methodology and presents the corresponding RAVEN/Modelica-based software framework to evaluate the financial performance of N-R HES. The novelty of the method is that it explicitly incorporates the stochastic nature of N-R HES inputs such as electricity demand and wind speeds. The method is applied to a generic (rather than region-specific) N-R HES. The analysis shows that under the right market conditions, economic benefits can be achieved by adding a suitable IP to the base-load generator. In particular, there exists an optimal relationship between the IP capacity and the demand. Furthermore, global trends indicate VRE penetration raises the cost of electricity due to the added volatility, an issue only mitigated when operating with high profit margins for the IP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO 2 -to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aim to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO 2 -to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

capacity expansion model↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grids

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aims to meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies in power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating Impacts of Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production with CO2-to-Fuels Technologies on High Renewable Share Power Grid: Preprint

This paper investigates the impact of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production using CO2-to-Fuels technologies on a future power grid with a high share of renewable energy. We focus on understanding the implications of the 2050 SAF production goal on the U.S. power system's long-term planning, encompassing generation, transmission, and cost analysis. Via the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, we developed a detailed SAF electricity demand model based on a low-temperature electrolysis-syngas fermentation-ethanol pathway. Four SAF target scenarios which aimto meet 10%, 15%, 20%, and 27% of SAF demand by 2050. These scenarios are exhaustively simulated to assess their impact on the power grid. Our results reveal that increasing SAF demand will result in higher electricity requirements, as well as expanded generator and transmission capacities, leading to an overall rise in system costs. However, these impacts are manageable within the broader context of U.S. capacity expansion plans. This study provides valuable insights into incorporating the CO2-to-Fuels electricity demand model and other carbon capture technologies into power system planning, emphasizing their significance in shaping a sustainable energy future.

BIOMASS FUELS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Files for "The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure"

This dataset includes modeling results from The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, including region-specific (i.e., national, state, and core-based statistical area [cities and towns]) electric vehicle supply equipment port count requirements in 2025 and 2030 for multiple scenarios described in the study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Informing electrification strategies of residential neighborhoods with urban building energy modeling

Electrifying end uses is a key strategy to reducing GHG emissions in buildings. However, it may increase peak electricity demand that triggers the need to upgrade the existing power distribution system, leading to delays in electrification and needs of significant investment. There is also concern that building electrification may cause an increase of energy costs, leading to further energy burden for low-income communities. This study uses the urban scale building modeling tool CityBES to assess the electrification impacts of more than 43,000 residential buildings in a neighborhood of Portland, Oregon, USA. Energy efficiency upgrades were investigated on their potential to mitigate the increase of peak electricity demand and energy burden. Simulation results from the calibrated EnergyPlus models show that electrification with heat pumps for space heating and cooling as well as for domestic water heating can reduce CO2e emissions by 38%, but increase peak electricity demand by about 9% from the baseline building stock. Combining electrification measures and energy efficiency upgrades can reduce CO2e emissions by 48% while reducing peak electricity demand by 6% and saving the median household energy costs by 28%. City and utility decision makers should consider integrating energy efficiency upgrades with electrification measures as an effective residential building electrification strategy, which significantly reduces carbon emissions, caps or even decreases peak demand while reducing energy burden of residents.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data Files for 'The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure'

This data set includes modeling results from The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, including region-specific (i.e., national, state, and core-based statistical area cities and towns) electric vehicle supply equipment port count requirements in 2025 and 2030 for multiple scenarios described in the study.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electricity Rate Designs for Large Loads: Evolving Practices and Opportunities

Electricity demand from large load customers such as data centers is projected to grow significantly in the near term. While data centers play an important role in advancing technology innovation and economic growth in the United States, data center energy needs present challenges and opportunities for electricity supply and infrastructure. This technical brief serves as a foundation for the discussion of issues and sharing of perspectives among utilities, regulators, large load customers, and other stakeholders. As utilities and regulators explore rate structures to address growing data center electricity demand, several issues have emerged: -Fair allocation of electricity system costs to large-load customers without unfair shifting of costs to other customers -Appropriate mitigation of the financial risks associated with stranded assets from underutilized utility system investments -Mitigation of operational and resource adequacy risks if electricity demand exceeds supply -Appropriate risk-sharing in commercializing newer electricity technologies such as advanced geothermal, small modular reactors, and long duration energy storage -Accommodating the diverse needs of large-load customers, such as having the option to match electricity consumption with output from carbon-free resources or using onsite generation to provide system capacity The technical brief also identifies key design elements that aim to address these issues and uses leading examples from pending and approved rate structures, agreements, and special contracts to ground the elements in practice.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PR100: Estimated Medium- and Heavy-Duty Electric Vehicle Adoption and Load Estimation in Puerto Rico through 2050

The 2-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy Study analyzed stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico’s clean energy future. Outputs relating to electricity demand modeling were partially informed by estimates of electric vehicle adoption across all classes of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDVs), and the ensuing charging loads. To create these estimates, the team developed a transportation model for MHDVs in Puerto Rico to estimate the amount and geospatial distribution of energy used. Charging schedules for the different end uses of MHDVs were then used to construct electric load shapes assuming a portion of those vehicles would be replaced by battery electric counterparts. Study results showed that, by 2050, electric vehicles may constitute roughly 50% of the MHDV population in Puerto Rico. The resulting electrical demand curve attributable to MHDV charging showed that, for solar energy-based electrical systems with limited energy storage, this demand may create challenges unless appropriately managed either on the demand or supply side.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Low-temperature solar thermal-power systems for residential electricity supply under various seasonal and climate conditions

In this work, the performance of low-temperature (<100 degrees C) solar thermal-power systems to satisfy residential electric loads was analyzed. The solar-driven system was designed to provide a fraction of the total electricity demand in a complementary operation with the electric grid. The analysis was conducted for an coperation during seven days each season, considering real solar and climate variables and residential loads at different climate zones in the United States. The efficiency of the system strongly depends on the solar radiation profile and the ambient temperature. Maximum efficiencies of around 9.5% were obtained in the cold and marine climate zones due to the high solar energy input and low heat dissipation temperatures. In these two zones, the system could supply more than 98% of the electricity demand all seasons. At mixed-humid and hot-humid regions, the system supplied around 50% of the electric load in three of the four seasons, but it only supplies about 27% of the electricity needs in the mixed-humid zone during summer and hot-humid zone during winter. The effect of the solar collector field area and the tank volume was also analyzed. In general, larger solar fields positively impact the efficiency. However, the impact of the tank volume varies depending on the solar radiation profile and the load requirements. Average efficiencies for the seven-day operation can be larger than 6% with a proper selection of the solar collector area and tank volume for an Organic Rankine Cycle with a capacity of about 2.6 kW. Finally, an economic analysis of the system was conducted, and the results were compared with a solar PV + battery system of similar capacity. It is expected that the cost for the analyzed solar-thermal system decreases in the coming years with the increased interest on low temperature applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

How many offshore wind turbines does New England need?

The proliferation of countries and regions with 100% clean or renewable energy targets necessitates an analysis to determine the number of generating units and storage needed to meet real-time electricity demand on the electric grid. The coastal areas of New England have the capacity to produce a large percentage of the region's energy needs with offshore wind turbines. Here we model offshore wind turbine power production data using MERRA-2 reanalysis and lidar wind speed data sets. We compare this power production to the New England hourly grid demand over the course of one year. 2,000 10 MW offshore wind turbines could satisfy New England's grid demand for about 37% of the year. When combined with 55 GWh of storage, 2,000 turbines could satisfy grid demand for about 72% of the year.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure; A Nationwide Assessment

Ambitious federal clean goals, along with historic investment in American manufacturing, have put the United States on track to see 30-42 million light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) on the road by 2030. Now, a groundbreaking study from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has estimated the EV charging infrastructure needed nationwide to support a sweeping transition to electrified transportation. The study, titled "The 2030 National Charging Network: Estimating U.S. Light-Duty Demand for Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure," estimates the number, type, and location of the chargers needed to create a comprehensive network of EV charging infrastructure. Its use of proprietary NREL software tools and sophisticated analysis have resulted in a nationwide infrastructure needs assessment with a never-before-seen level of detail - one that takes into account the different ways Americans travel, from running errands to taking road trips, and can adjust to changing circumstances as EV adoption rates change over time.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Impact of Operated Window Shading on Visual Comfort, Non-Visual Health, and Energy Demand from Electric Lighting

This paper introduces a simulation-based workflow to assess annual circadian lighting performance, glare risk and energy demand for an array of seated view positions under operated shading and electric lighting conditions. This workflow uses a combination of 9-band and 81-band simulations to represent daylight and electric lighting respectively. Annual daylight-driven calculations rely on a python-based code provided in the LARK simulation engine which was used to run 180-degree high dynamic range (HDR) renderings with 9-bands of spectral resolution. The results reveal the impact of shading systems on equivalent melanopic lux (EML) and daylight glare probability (DGP) over time and the energy demand (kWh) from electric lighting systems to supplement eye-level recommendations from the WELL v2 Building Standard.

Rockcastle, Siobhan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Region-Specific Merchant Hydrogen Market Assessment and Techno-Economic Assessment of Electrolytic Hydrogen Generation: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-18-00751

Utilities need to recover value from baseload and some renewable assets even when the electricity is curtailed. The declining cost of renewables (particularly solar), the persistently low-cost of natural gas, and the declining electricity demand, have all worked to lower the price of electricity. Furthermore, the baseload assets have a high turndown cost, which is not reflected in the low market electricity prices. One option for utilizing the curtailed electricity is hydrogen generation. One important aspect of this project will be to provide a “go/no-go” recommendation on the economic feasibility of pursuing hydrogen generation vs. other markets that could offtake curtailed electricity or nuclear steam. This project will specifically assess the opportunities for hydrogen production and use in the service territories of Southern Company Services (SCS), Exelon SBC, and Xcel Energy. Each utility partner represents a different mix of generation fleets: Exelon has significant nuclear assets, Xcel is primarily renewables (wind) with some nuclear, and SCS represents both a renewables fleet and a heavily baseload fleet, which includes significant nuclear. The Contractors will conduct the study of hydrogen market opportunities by first considering the approximate electricity demand and price profiles for the year, and power generation capacity that can be used to produce hydrogen. Therefore, a profile for hydrogen generation will also be developed to better understand the quantity and timing of hydrogen production. Once the hydrogen production schedule is estimated, hydrogen storage requirements can be determined. This effort will provide sufficient information to make a go/no-go decision on moving ahead with a detailed regional case study for hydrogen production in any of the three utility areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗