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Electric Grid Supply Chain Review: Large Power Transformers and High Voltage Direct Current Systems

The report “America’s Strategy to Secure the Supply Chain for a Robust Clean Energy Transition” lays out the challenges and opportunities faced by the United States in the energy supply chain as well as the federal government plans to address these challenges and opportunities. It is accompanied by several issue-specific deep dive assessments, including this one, in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. The need to modernize and increase the capacity of the U.S. power grid is increasing due to growing population, aging infrastructure, grid resilience requirements, operational flexibility needs, and a growing portfolio of renewable energy. As part of the Paris Climate Agreement the United States has committed to reducing its net greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent below 2005 levels in 2030 and has set a goal of 100 percent carbon pollution free electricity by 2035 (The United States of America Nationally Determined Contribution, 2021). Meeting these targets will require a significant expansion of the power system to integrate a large amount of new renewable resources (United States Department of State & United States Executive Office of the President, 2021). However, many critical components supporting the power grid have limited to no domestic manufacturing capacity and face complex challenges in supporting a rapid expansion of the grid to meet multiple objectives, including decarbonization goals. This report focuses on two key grid components: large power transformers (LPTs) and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Refueling Infrastructure Deployment in Low-Income and Non-Urban Communities

The U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization identifies the need to invest in infrastructure supporting low- and zero-emission vehicles, especially in low-income and overburdened communities, to eliminate nearly all greenhouse gas emissions from the transportation sector by 2050. The alternative fuel vehicle refueling property tax credit (26 U.S. Code § 30C) includes eligibility criteria intended to encourage investment in underserved communities based on the economic characteristics or urban character of the census tract in which the fueling infrastructure is installed. Eligible census tracts are those that qualify for the New Markets Tax Credit or that are not located within urban areas as defined by the U.S. Census Bureau. This study quantifies how many fueling-related amenities are currently located in census tracts that qualify and do not qualify for the 30C tax credit based on IRS Notice 2024-20. For existing electric vehicle charging stations, 51% of Level 2 and 60% of Direct Current Fast Charging public stations are located in eligible census tracts. 73% of natural gas, propane, and hydrogen fueling stations are in qualifying census tracts and 75% of biodiesel and renewable fuel stations are in qualifying census tracts. This compares with 73% of existing gas stations in eligible census tracts. For deploying the refueling infrastructure to satisfy future demand, this study shows that truck stops (94%), commercial truck stops (92%), and Federal Highway alternative fuel corridors (89%) are predominantly located in eligible locations. Additionally, significant percentages of the population (62%), light-duty vehicle registrations (64%), and medium- and heavy-duty vehicle registrations (68%) fall within eligible areas.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy

The United States has committed to decarbonizing freight transportation by advancing the deployment of commercial zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (ZEMHDVs) and infrastructure. It is pursuing this goal by leveraging historic federal and private investments, policies, and partnerships. Through the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation Decarbonization1 and the Global Memorandum of Understanding for Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles,2 the United States has committed to identifying viable pathways and implementation actions that promote at least 30% ZE-MHDV sales by 2030, with a goal of 100% by 2040. These actions, along with the investments laid out in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act, put the nation on a path to advancing transportation and infrastructure solutions that are better for freight movement, our communities, the environment, and the economy. Providing ubiquitous and convenient access to electric vehicle (EV) charging and hydrogen refueling along our nation’s freight corridors, and at truck depots within freight hubs, is key to successfully deploying ZE-MHDVs. Consistent with its charge in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, 3 the Joint Office of Energy and Transportation (Joint Office), in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Department of Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency, has developed the National Zero-Emission Freight Corridor Strategy (Strategy). The Strategy guides infrastructure deployment to meet growing market demands; catalyze public and private investment; and support utility and regulatory planning and action at local, state, and regional levels.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Colorado Alternatively Powered Aircraft Airport Infrastructure Study

Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging technologies in propulsion of general aviation and commuter aircraft for the purpose of moving passengers and goods. The State of Colorado has a strong aerospace and aviation legacy, and this research explores the potential energy implications of a transition from traditional aircraft propulsion systems to more-electric, full electric and hydrogen powered aircraft in flight schools, and small community air service utilizing NASA's Regional Air Mobility Model. Effort includes identifying potential energy needs and cost-effective solutions to support those emerging needs analyzing potential benefits on on-site generation and storage to optimize energy systems.Advanced Air Mobility encompasses emerging technologies in propulsion of general aviation and commuter aircraft for the purpose of moving passengers and goods. The State of Colorado has a strong aerospace and aviation legacy, and this research explores the potential energy implications of a transition from traditional aircraft propulsion systems to more-electric, full electric and hydrogen powered aircraft in flight schools, and small community air service utilizing NASA's Regional Air Mobility Model. Effort includes identifying potential energy needs and cost-effective solutions to support those emerging needs analyzing potential benefits on on-site generation and storage to optimize energy systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Light-duty Plug-in Electric Vehicles in China: Evolution, Competition, and Outlook

China's plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market with stocks at 7.8 million is the world's largest in 2021, and it accounts for half of the global PEV growth in 2021. The PEV market in China has dramatically evolved since the pandemic in 2020: over 20% of all new PEV sales are from China by mid-2022. Recent features of PEV market dynamics, consumer acceptance, policies, and infrastructure have important implications for both the global energy market and manufacturing stakeholders. From the perspective of demand pull-supply push, this study analyzes China's PEV industry with a market dynamics framework by reviewing sales, product and brand, infrastructure, and government policies from the last few years and outlooking the development of the new government’s 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2025). From the demand side, small-sized sedans and compact sport utility vehicles with increased electric ranges are both popular for PEVs, and the electric range of over 60% of new battery electric vehicles in 2021 has been longer than 400 km. From the supply side, although foreign brands like Tesla are still competitive, the products by Chinese domestic automakers like BYD are becoming more attractive and cannibalizing the high-end market. However, the production capacity and cost of PEVs may be limited by the upstream of the supply chain – the battery manufacturing and supply chain inflation. In addition, it is also uncertain how much sales demand impacts will be caused by the potential global economic recession. The government firmly supports electrification and decarbonization of the vehicle industry by emphasizing the importance of the vehicle industry for promoting the greenhouse gas net zero by 2060. The dual-credit policy is regarded as the most critical regulation in a bid to restrain fuel consumption and promote PEV share. Still, the market is facing some technological obstacles, such as battery safety and driving range anxiety, before real prosperity. In addition, the Chinese electric vehicle market is seeing a trend toward the development of new technologies such as vehicle-to-X, autonomous driving, and connected vehicles.

Hao, Xu↗

Decision support for United States—Canada energy integration is impaired by fragmentary environmental and electricity system modeling capacity

The renewable energy transition is leading to increased electricity trade between the United States and Canada, with Canadian hydropower providing firm lower-carbon power and buffering variability of wind and solar generation in the U.S. However, long-term power purchase agreements and transborder transmission projects are controversial, with two of four proposed transmission lines between Quebec, Canada and the northeast U.S. cancelled since 2018. Here, we argue that controversies are exacerbated by a lack of open-source data and tools to understand tradeoffs of new hydropower generation and transmission infrastructure in comparison to alternatives. This gap includes impacts that incremental transmission and generation projects have on the economics of the entire system, for example, how new transmission projects affect exports to existing markets or incentivize new generation. We identify priority areas for data synthesis and model development, such as integrating linked hydropower and hydrologic interactions in energy system models and openly releasing (by utilities) or back-calculating (by researchers) hydropower generation and operational parameters. Publicly available environmental (e.g. streamflow, precipitation) and techno-economic (e.g. costs, reservoir size,) data can be used to parameterize freely usable and extensible models. Existing models have been calibrated with operational data from Canadian utilities that are not publicly available, limiting the range of scientific and commercial questions these tools have been used to answer and the range of parties that have been involved. Studies conducted using highly resolved, national-scale public data exist in other countries, notably, the United States, and demonstrate how greater transparency and extensibility can drive industry action. Improved data availability in Canada could facilitate approaches that (1) increase participation in decarbonization planning by a broader range of actors; (2) allow independent characterizations of environmental, health, and economic outcomes of interest to the public; and (3) identify decarbonization pathways consistent with community values.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Review of Feasibility and Cost Drivers for Floating Offshore Wind Energy in Washington State

The state of Washington must double its clean electricity supply by 2050 to meet its clean energy goals and comply with the Clean Energy Transformation Act. With more than 6.6 GW of technical resource potential in federal waters where Bureau of Ocean Energy Management has leasing authority, offshore wind energy could play an important role in diversifying Washington State's clean energy mix, reducing dependence on out-of-state energy sources, and helping meet state decarbonization goals. Decision makers need technology-specific information to assist with long-term energy system planning, so the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management requested that the National Renewable Energy Laboratory provide an overview of several drivers of offshore wind energy feasibility and cost in Washington. This study summarizes some of the existing engagement efforts and perspectives on offshore wind energy in the region and quantifies the offshore wind resources in Washington as well as technology costs and performance of potential projects. Furthermore, this report reviews existing grid and port infrastructure and discusses infrastructure needs along with information gaps. This study also explores opportunities and barriers to Washington entities supporting the broader floating offshore wind energy supply chain along the U.S. West Coast. Note that this study is not part of a formal project planning process or official engagement effort, nor does it assess environmental or economic impacts from potential offshore wind energy development.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impact of Technology Improvements on the Cost of Hydrogen Produced using SOEC Technology at Large Scale

National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) provides system-level process, cost, and market analyses on solid oxide cell (SOC) based technologies. Specifically, techno-economic analyses (TEA), market assessments, and other technology evaluations serve to guide the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) Reversible Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (R-SOFC) Program technology goals and objectives. These studies are key to describing how the technologies contribute to improving domestic energy infrastructure in a clean, efficient manner. This effort focuses on hydrogen generation technologies, which have received recent attention due to their potential role in economy-wide decarbonization. In particular, the study is part of a series of investigations at NETL that seek to understand the techno-economic impacts of including SOC technology in energy production, hydrogen production, and/or storage configurations. The objective of this study is to establish a detailed TEA to assess the effectiveness of incremental technology improvements needed for solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) technology to achieve the U.S. DOE’s Hydrogen Shot goal of hydrogen production at less than $1 per kilogram. To take advantage of the benefits of economies of scale, the SOEC hydrogen facilities are sized to produce ≈250,000 metric tons of hydrogen annually with an electrolysis load of one gigawatt (direct current). Some additional critical assumptions include stacks that operate near the thermo-neutral voltage of 1.28 V to avoid adverse thermal gradients, all necessary steam and heat is generated by electric boilers and heaters to enable green hydrogen production, and an air sweep is used to control the oxygen concentration in the air electrode exhaust stream. System efficiency and levelized costs of hydrogen (LCOH) for each case are presented.

Hackett, Gregory↗

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Natural Gas Community of the Future (Final Report)

Nicor Gas, a subsidiary of Southern Company Gas and its parent company Southern Company, is developing the concept of the Carbon-neutral, Affordable, Resilient, and Equitable Community ("CARE Community") to address the challenges of accessibility and affordability of grid-interactive efficient buildings in historically disadvantaged communities. The CARE Community is a new construction net-zero energy and carbon neutral residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes with electricity and natural gas services in South Suburban Chicago, built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is assisting Southern Company to explore how energy efficiency, renewable technologies, and the reliability and resilience of natural gas can be combined and optimized in an islandable energy system as part of a broader effort to understand the role natural gas plays in future communities integrated with renewable energy and improved energy efficiency. The CARE Community will demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls can be combined with existing natural gas infrastructure to serve historically disadvantaged communities in a cold climate with low energy cost for affordable housing programs and enhanced resilience to withstand extreme weather. Homes will be a part of an islandable energy system, integrating multiple DER technologies such as solar panels, natural gas fuel cells, reciprocating natural gas engines, and battery storage. The CARE Community will provide a replicable template that affordable housing developers and energy companies can adopt throughout the United States. In this report, we present the design and modeling of the community and potential approaches for integrating DERs. We analyze and discuss annual simulations under normal operating conditions and week-long simulations under electric power grid outage conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Hydrogen Leak Modeling for Development of Smart Distributed Monitoring Under Unintended Releases

Hydrogen is a versatile and clean energy carrier that can be produced from various renewable sources such as wind, solar, and hydropower. Hydrogen has the potential to play a crucial role in decarbonizing industrial processes that are currently reliant on fossil fuels and provide long-duration and/or seasonal energy storage to enable electricity decarbonization. Hydrogen can also be used as a fuel for fuel cell vehicles, providing a zero-emission alternative to traditional internal combustion engines. DOE launched the Hydrogen Energy Earthshot (Hydrogen Shot) in June 2021 to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1 per 1 kilogram in 1 decade ("1 1 1"). While promising, Hydrogen is highly-flammable, and in the presence of oxygen, it can form explosive mixtures. . Therefore, understanding leak scenarios is essential to evaluate and mitigate the safety risks associated with potential hydrogen leaks. An increased understanding of leak behavior, and having tools to model leaks, can help assess how hydrogen would disperse in different environments, influencing emergency response plans and safety measures, and identify potential issues with materials and design systems that can withstand the challenges posed by hydrogen. Recently, researchers have attempted to study hydrogen leaks for development of risk management strategies. However, the focus has been on closed or semi-closed spaces like storage rooms, vehicles, garages, and fueling stations - all promising locations for future hydrogen infrastructure. In this presentation, the modeling environment extends the span of research further by modeling hydrogen leak in an outdoor, open space. We will present the key challenges with modeling hydrogen leaks in an uncontrollable environment, how they were handled, and how modeling results informed sensor selection and placement. A Hydrogen research facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was used as a case study to model hydrogen leaks. In the future, Hydrogen wide area detection methodologies will be developed and tested at this site to monitor for unintended and operational hydrogen releases. The data generated from modeling will be used to develop a predictive model to detect hydrogen leak location based on concentration measured by sensors in this open space. Furthermore, the facility was also chosen because controlled hydrogen releases can be performed. A computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling approach was taken to model hydrogen leak. The full-scale hydrogen facility was modeled with a large ambient domain. The electrolyzer at the facility can produce a controlled release rate of 27 kg-H2/hr. Site-specific atmospheric and weather condition data such as wind direction, wind speed at various altitudes, and temperature were used as inputs to the model. To capture the variability of weather conditions, a subset of the weather conditions experienced during daytime hours without precipitation over the course of three months was generated; using established data clustering techniques, a total of 100 condition sets were chosen. The results show statistical distributions and ranges of hydrogen concentrations at locations throughout the domain. These distributions are compared to experimental data from a constant mass flow, controlled hydrogen release at the facility. The stochastic wind conditions of the release make direct validation difficult, therefore, statistical comparison approaches were used. Wind conditions are found to significantly impact the release behavior, including direction and concentration. Sensor selection and placement is proposed for the facility and is now based on release behavior predicted for the facility given its weather patterns; this is much more informed than without the modeling results. The methodology and analysis procedure can be translated to other facilities using modified geometries and site-specific weather conditions. Hydrogen holds great promise as a renewable energy fuel, but ensuring safety in its production, storage, and use is paramount. Studying potential leak scenarios in an open space will help develop sensors to detect hydrogen on a large spectrum of concentration and eventually build a smart distributed monitoring system.

CFD↗

Hydrogen Transportation and Distributed Energy Systems Risk and Feasibility Assessment for Airport Facilities - CRADA 555 (Abstract)

This CRADA presents the strategy that Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will take to support PDX in performing a risk assessment for several hydrogen deployment scenarios. It is intended that the deployment of hydrogen at PDX could serve several roles, including decarbonizing its bus fleet and building out a distributed energy system which could also be used to facilitate emergency operations. PDX’s initial plans concern replacing their current fleet of 28 busses with FCEBs. To do so, PDX will need to deploy the hydrogen systems needed to support the buses. This includes hydrogen storage, production, delivery, filling, compression, and maintenance. PDX also has long range plans to build a distributed energy system to support normal and resilient operations. This study will investigate the risks of each plan individually, and a combined plan which serves both. Additionally, PDX is in an area with the potential for high seismic activity, as such this work will also include a seismic risk assessment. A detailed risk assessment using PDX as a test case is necessary to ensure the deployment of large-scale hydrogen is successful and to understand the benefits or drawbacks in contrast to electric only technologies. Many technologies have been proposed that claim to utilize hydrogen for both transportation and distributed energy systems; however, these technologies need to be analyzed as they apply to an actual site. The physical infrastructure and hydrogen use cases for PDX will be analyzed, a risk assessment will be performed on the hydrogen infrastructure and distributed energy system. These assessments will be useful for understanding how each of these technologies would perform as applied to a large public facility and public safety. The results of this CRADA, and an impact of the DOE funding, will evaluate hydrogen as a key fuel for PDX and will accelerate by several years availability of hydrogen, fuel cells, and other low-carbon technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

I-80 Mid-America Clean Fuels Corridor: Deployment Plan Report

The I-80 Mid-America Clean Fuels Corridor, which spans I-80 from Fort Lee, New Jersey, to Council Bluffs, Iowa, was designated an Alternative Fuels Corridor (AFC) in Round 1 of the Alternative Fuels Corridor program administered by the U.S. Department of Transportation’s (DOT’s) Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). Originally called the “I-80 Mid-America Alternative Fuels Corridor,” it is now named the “I-80 Mid-America Clean Fuels Corridor.” As of Round 6 AFC designation, parts of the corridor have sufficient direct current fast charging (DCFC) stations to be designated Electric Vehicle (EV)-Ready and sufficient compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling stations to be designated CNG-Ready. However, much of the corridor’s approximately 1,240 miles (mi) are not yet EV- or CNG-Ready. This includes about 1,130 mi that are designated EV-Pending and 700 mi that are designated CNG-Pending. This report presents a plan to develop EV charging and CNG fueling infrastructure sufficient to convert the entire length of the corridor to EV-Ready and CNG-Ready. Specific sites are not identified for future infrastructure. Rather, priority exits are identified, and information, analysis, and additional steps are recommended to support further refinement of these locations, as well as additional outreach and deployment efforts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Industrial Load Flexibility, the U.S. Power Grid and Ammonia

A variable renewable power grid is a new technological regime that involves real time harvesting and low-cost availability of energy resources coupled with storage to meet additional needs. Decarbonization through electrification of end uses formerly met by combustion processes will be a concurrent trend. Taken together, these two changes may make flexibility on the demand side more valuable to the grid and to industrial users. Industry accounted for 26% of US power demand in 2021. Traditionally, industrial processes for producing ammonia and other basic materials have been optimized for a system based on fossil resources, where energy can be called upon according to needs. Large capital expenditures as well as safety considerations have favored plants running at steady state at close to their maximum capacity. It is possible, however, that the renewable energy transition will offer opportunities to sectors that can operate in a more flexible manner. Innovations that make use of flexibility to enhance their business model to move forward, individuals and groups active in their development, use and regulation, together with institutions and infrastructures, can be considered as a technological innovation system (TIS). Beyond economic and technical factors on their own, the TIS is an important analysis framework for studying the development and diffusion of technologies. This work attempts to map the TIS of flexible industrial loads and their interaction with electric power in the US, with a particular focus on ammonia as a case study. We have conducted interviews with stakeholders involved in ammonia projects, working in system operators, trade groups, regulators and utilities. We assess to what extent a technological innovation system is functioning and document characteristics that allow industries to operate flexibly.

ammonia↗

Empirical Evidence for the Potential Climate Benefits of Decarbonizing Light Vehicle Transport in the U.S. with Bioenergy from Purpose-Grown Biomass with and without BECCS

Climate mitigation scenarios limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C rely on decarbonizing vehicle transport with bioenergy production plus carbon capture and storage (BECCS), but climate impacts for producing different bioenergy feedstocks have not been directly compared experimentally or for ethanol vs electric light-duty vehicles. A field experiment at two Midwest U.S. sites on contrasting soils revealed that feedstock yields of seven potential bioenergy cropping systems varied substantially within sites but little between. Bioenergy produced per hectare reflected yields: miscanthus > poplar > switchgrass > native grasses ≈ maize stover (residue) > restored prairie ≈ early successional. Greenhouse gas emission intensities for ethanol vehicles ranged from 20 to -179 g CO 2 e MJ –1 : maize stover $\gg$ miscanthus ≈ switchgrass ≈ native grasses ≈ poplar > early successional ≥ restored prairie; direct climate benefits ranged from ~80% (stover) to 290% (restored prairie) reductions in CO 2 e compared to petroleum and were similar for electric vehicles. With carbon capture and storage (CCS), reductions in emission intensities ranged from 204% (stover) to 416% (restored prairie) for ethanol vehicles and from 329 to 558% for electric vehicles, declining 27 and 15%, respectively, once soil carbon equilibrates within several decades of establishment. Extrapolation based on expected U.S. transportation energy use suggests that, once CCS potential is maximized with CO 2 pipeline infrastructure, negative emissions from bioenergy with CCS for light-duty electric vehicles could capture >900 Tg CO 2 e year –1 in the U.S. In the future, as other renewable electricity sources become more important, electricity production from biomass would offset less fossil fuel electricity, and the advantage of electric over ethanol vehicles would decrease proportionately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Idaho national laboratory to demonstrate collaboration first versus competition to accelerate achieving a secure clean energy future by 2031

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) announced at COP27 it would reach net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2031. As a Nuclear, Energy and Environment, and National Homeland Security laboratory, the predominant solution to closing the clean energy gap will include nuclear as a safe, clean, reliable and affordable electricity source with the additional benefit of producing heat and hydrogen to fuel INL’s large transportation fleet. INL’s collaboration first vs. competition is essential to the program’s success. The focused actions in INL’s Nuclear Roadmap include: Infrastructure, Licensing/Regulatory, Financial, Time to Market, Fuel Cycle and Public Confidence/Communications. The roadmap also includes nuclear technology innovations and creative partnerships with utility providers, regulators, businesses, community members, and Indigenous Peoples to accelerate deployment of advanced reactors. Through development of the Net-Zero Nuclear Roadmap, INL will offer a model to provide safe and secure energy for the nation and the world by: (1) establishing the necessary infrastructure on its 890-square mile site to support demonstration, (2) showing proven pathways through the licensing and regulation process, (3) partnering with utilities to ensure commercial application, and (4) collaborating with industry to site new technologies.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Design Requirements and Software Specification for the Autonomous Energy Management Software System for Small Commercial Buildings

Commercial buildings are responsible for approximately 20 percent of the total United States energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Over 85 percent of these buildings lack building automation systems. Many of these buildings are small (<50,000 square feet), underserved, and use rooftop units for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning needs. Because these buildings lack proper energy management systems, they have several operational deficiencies that lead to excess energy consumption. Studies have shown that managing the rooftop units heating and cooling set points, schedules, setbacks, and optimal start can result in 20 to 25 percent reduction in electricity consumption in small commercial buildings. In addition, improving demand flexibility of these buildings will result additional cost savings for the building owner. Therefore, the Department of Energy’s Building Technologies Office approved a project to address the needs for small commercial buildings. The project is led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) with Intellimation LLC as the cooperative research and development agreement partner. The primary goal of the project is to develop and validate an autonomous energy management software (AEMS) system that will continuously optimize small commercial building operations by minimizing energy consumption and cost, while providing a solution for maximizing decarbonization benefits from electrification of buildings. The work will leverage the vast experience of PNNL research and development staff who have over two decades of experience in developing and successfully transferring software technologies to the private sector. This solution will be jointly developed with Intellimation, a company that plans to use it to scale their building energy efficiency (EE) and grid services offering. Widespread deployment of the AEMS system will improve the EE and demand flexibility of the building commercial building stock. It should also support cities and states in meeting their climate change mitigation goals. This document describes the various EE and grid service features of the AEMS system, infrastructure and data required to implement those features, and how the features should be automated. It also details how the various features will be tested and validated, including field validation. The document also details what flexibility the users have and how they will be able to leverage those capabilities exercise those. The intent is to create an AEMS system that would support scalable deployment, requires minimal configuration, and is easy to maintain over its expected lifespan. The initial alpha release of AEMS system is planned for March 2023, and the beta release is planned for the summer of 2023. The final release is planned for March 2024. Section 2 of the report documents the relevant building types that AEMS is suitable for. Section 3 documents EE features that will be supported. It will also include the data requirements, hardware requirements, implementation details, and how EE features will be tested and validated. Grid service features will be documented in section 4, including data requirements, hardware requirements, implementation details, and how the services will be tested and validated. Planned next steps are described in section 5.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗