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NASA NTRS1999

Tidal Energy Available for Deep Ocean Mixing: Bounds from Altimetry Data

Maintenance of the large-scale thermohaline circulation has long presented an interesting problem. Observed mixing rates in the pelagic ocean are an order of magnitude too small to balance the rate at which dense bottom water is created at high latitudes. Recent observational and theoretical work suggests that much of this mixing may occur in hot spots near areas of rough topography (e.g., mid-ocean ridges and island arcs). Barotropic tidal currents provide a very plausible source of energy to maintain these mixing processes. Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry data have made precise mapping of open ocean tidal elevations possible for the first time. We can thus obtain empirical, spatially localized, estimates of barotropic tidal dissipation. These provide an upper bound on the amount of tidal energy that is dissipated in the deep ocean, and hence is available for deep mixing. We will present and compare maps of open ocean tidal energy flux divergence, and estimates of tidal energy flux into shallow seas, derived from T/P altimetry data using both formal data assimilation methods and empirical approaches. With the data assimilation methods we can place formal error bars on the fluxes. Our results show that 20-25% of tidal energy dissipation occurs outside of the shallow seas, the traditional sink for tidal energy. This suggests that up to 1 TW of energy may be available from the tides (lunar and solar) for mixing the deep ocean. The dissipation indeed appears to be concentrated over areas of rough topography.

Ray, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Mantle Q at Period 12.4 Hours: New Estimates from Satellite Tracking and Altimetry

The most convincing estimates of mantle Q at periods of many hours have historically come from extrapolating seismic and free-oscillation estimates via some assumed frequency dependence, sometimes contrained by estimates from the Chandler Wobble. At the semidiurnal tidal period, direct estimates of Q have been difficult to obtain because of the dominating signals of the ocean tides, which account for more than 95!k of the tidal energy dissipation. But knowledge of the ocean tides has been rapidly improving, primarily owing to satellite altimetry, and in 1996 we reported (NATURE, 381, 595-7) an estimate of solid-earth tidal energy dissipation and mantle Q based on combining satellite altimeter measurements with tracking observations of tidally induced satellite orbit perturbations. Tidal estimates from both reveal a small systematic difference in the quadrature component of the degree-2, order-2 spherical harmonic coefficients, which we attribute to a small lag in the earth's body tide. The formalism accounts for this lag in both the altimeter and tracking solutions and also accounts for a very small contribution from the lunar atmospheric tide. Since this original report, both altimeter and tracking estimates have improved. Recent solutions for the body-tide lag at the M2 period are 0.20 +/- 0.09 degrees, implying an energy dissipation of 100 +/- 50 gigawatts and a solid-earth Q of 300. Further new solutions will be discussed, as will the prospects for significantly reducing error bars and for obtaining estimates from other tides in the diurnal band.

Ray, Richard D.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Tidal Energy Available for Deep Ocean Mixing: Bounds From Altimetry Data

Maintenance of the large-scale thermohaline circulation has long presented a problem to oceanographers. Observed mixing rates in the pelagic ocean are an order of magnitude too small to balance the rate at which dense bottom water is created at high latitudes. Recent observational and theoretical work suggests that much of this mixing may occur in hot spots near areas of rough topography (e.g., mid-ocean ridges and island arcs). Barotropic tidal currents provide a very plausible source of energy to maintain these mixing processes. Topex/Poseidon satellite altimetry data have made precise mapping of open ocean tidal elevations possible for the first time. We can thus obtain empirical, spatially localized, estimates of barotropic tidal dissipation. These provide an upper bound on the amount of tidal energy that is dissipated in the deep ocean, and hence is available for deep mixing. We will present and compare maps of open ocean tidal energy flux divergence, and estimates of tidal energy flux into shallow seas, derived from T/P altimetry data using both formal data assimilation methods and empirical approaches. With the data assimilation methods we can place formal error bars on the fluxes. Our results show that 20-25% of tidal energy dissipation occurs outside of the shallow seas, the traditional sink for tidal energy. This suggests that up to 1 TW of energy may be available from the tides (lunar and solar) for mixing the deep ocean. The dissipation indeed appears to be concentrated over areas of rough topography.

Egbert, Gary D.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Heat of Formation of CH2OH

The heat of formation of CH2OH at 298 K is determined to be -15.2 +/- 3.5 kJ/mol using high levels of theory. This is in good agreement with some recent experimental determinations. The assignment of the error bars is discussed in detail and compared with that assigned in previous theoretical calculations. The largest uncertainty arises from the calculation of the zero-point energy.

Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Distribution of Titanium in Lunar Soils on the Basis of Sensor and In Situ Data Fusion

A variety of remote-sensing measurements have been used to map the distribution of elements on the Moon as a means of providing constraints on the processes from which its crust and major terranes originated. Discussed here is Ti, which is incorporated into refractory minerals such as ilmenite during the latter stages of differentiation, and is thus a most useful element for understanding mare basalt petrogenesis. One of the earliest Ti maps showed Ti variations in nearside maria on the basis of groundbased spectral reflectance measurements. A map of Ti derived from gamma-ray measurements on Apollo 15 and 16 was produced at about the same time, and was improved upon considerably by Davis and coworkers, who effectively removed sources of spurious variation from Fe and Al or REE (e.g., Th) interference, and calibrated Ti on the bases of landing-site soil averages. In recent years, spectral reflectance measurements from Clementine have been used by Lucey and coworkers to produce global Ti distribution maps as well. As we indicated previously, the Lucey and Davis maps agree to first order. Meanwhile, we are using the concept of sensor data fusion to combine measurements from the AGR (Apollo gamma-ray) and CSR (Clementine Spectral Reflectance) techniques with ground truth from lunar soils to utilize the differences between the two maps to understand the distribution of Ti within lunar soil components, as we have done with Fe. This technique should be verified and applied on Lunar Prospector gamma-ray measurements of Ti, as the calibrated data become available within the next couple of years. Lunar Ti is found principally in the mineral ilmenite, and is associated with certain components of lunar soil: crystalline Ilmenite mineral fragments and high Ti-bearing glass. All data indicate that Ti is associated with maria and mafic minerals. In AGR and CSR datasets, Ti is highest on the nearside and in the maria, particularly in southern Serenitatis/northern Tranquillitatis and northwestern Procellarum. Unlike CSR-derived values, AGR Ti values show modest increase (up to 0.7%) on the northern farside. Both techniques show a primarily unimodal distribution with a shoulder in the high Ti direction and a primary mode at approximately 0.2% (0.15% for CSR and 0.25% for AGR data), but the AGR Ti data have more structure in the shoulder, including an apparent minor mode at 1.2% Ti, representing non-highland areas. Recalibrating the two datasets on the basis of matching the peaks and range on the histograms would not account for this additional structure in the AGR data. Low Ti areas, which occur predominantly on the farside, are not represented well in the lunar sample collection, although several meteorites thought to be of lunar highland origin show Ti abundances averaging about 0.2%. (Error bars on AGR Ti values are about 0.5%.) Gamma-ray measurements reflect intrinsic Ti surface composition, regardless of the physical or chemical state of Ti. Lucey and coworkers have attempted to produce an equivalent bulk Ti map by normalizing the spectral feature at 415 nm to remove the effects of physical variations from soil to soil. The normalization is based on laboratory measurements of available samples, primarily nearside maria, and is undoubtedly optimized for the proportions in which Ti- components are found in these soils. In particular, mare soils tend to have a much higher proportion of opaque mineral grains, which appears to be well correlated with Ti abundance. The relationship between Ti abundance and proportion of Ti-bearing glass (weighted for Ti abundance) is not as direct. Also shows the relationship between landing site soil average, AGR, and CSR Ti abundances (with CSR filtered to match resolution and field of view of AGR data). AGR Ti values show the best agreement with Ti soil averages, CSR Ti values being somewhat higher in high-Ti soils, and lower in low-Ti soils. These results would tend to support the argument that the technique for deriving Ti from the CSR measurements is optimized for one of the primary Ti-bearing components, most likely opaque mineral grains, and is thus over-compensating and reporting higher Ti values in mare areas, and underreporting Ti in highland areas with much lower proportions of opaque mineral grains. More information is contained in original.

Clark, P. E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Clear-Sky Closure Studies of Lower Tropospheric Aerosol and Water Vapor During ACE-2 Using Airborne Sunphotometer, Airborne In-Situ, Space-Borne, and Ground-Based Measurements

Schmid, Beat↗

NASA NTRS2000

Clear-Sky Closure Studies of Tropospheric Aerosol and Water Vapor During ACE-2 Using Airborne Sunphotometer, Airborne In-Situ, Space-Borne, and Ground-Based Measurements

We report on clear-sky column closure experiments (CLEARCOLUMN) performed in the Canary Islands during the second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) in June/July 1997. We present CLEARCOLUMN results obtained by combining airborne sunphotometer and in-situ (a differential mobility analyzer, three optical particle counters, three nephelometers, and one absorption photometer) measurements taken aboard the Pelican aircraft, space-borne NOAA/AVHRR data and ground-based lidars. A wide range of aerosol types was encountered throughout the ACE-2 area, including background Atlantic marine, European pollution-derived, and (although less frequently than expected) African mineral dust. During the two days discussed here, vertical profiles flown in cloud free air masses revealed three distinctly different layers: a marine boundary layer (MBL) with varying pollution levels, an elevated dust layer, and a very clean layer between the MBL and the dust layer. Based on size-resolved composition information we have established an aerosol model that allows us to compute optical properties of the ambient aerosol using the optical particle counter results. In the dust, the agreement in layer AOD (lambda=380-1060 nm) is 3-8%. In the MBL there is a tendency for the in-situ results to be slightly lower than the sunphotometer measurements (10-17% at lambda=525 nm), but these differences are within the combined error bars of the measurements and computations. Aerosol size-distribudon closure based on in-situ size distributions and inverted sunphotometer extinction spectra has been achieved in the MBL (total surface area and volume agree within 0.2, and 7%, respectively) but not in the dust layer. The fact that the three nephelometers operated at three different relative humidities (RH) allowed to parameterize hygroscopic growth and to therefore estimate optical properties at ambient RH. The parameters derived for different aerosol types are themselves useful for the aerosol modeling community. The fact that the nephelometers and the absorption photometer sampled the aerosol through a cyclone make those measurements less useful for thee closure study carried out here. Large corrections (especially in the dust) had to be applied. Therefore, it is not surprising that closure with the sunphotometer was not always achieved. Agreement within 0.02 in AOD was achieved in the dust layer when the airorne sunphotometer extinction or AOD was compared to ground-based lidar measurements. We found that the presence of the elevated dust layers removes the good agreement between satellite and sunphotometer AOD usually found in the absence of the dust layer. We still compare the scattering phase functions used in the satellite retrieval with those obtained from the aerosol or the sunphotometer measurements.

Schmid, Beat↗

NASA NTRS2000

Airborne Sunphotometer, Airborne in-situ, Space-borne, and Ground-Based Measurements of Troposoheric Aerosol in Ace-2

We report on clear-sky column closure experiments performed in the Canary Islands during the second Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-2) in June/July 1997. We present results obtained by combining airborne sunphotometer and in-situ aerosol measurements taken aboard the Pelican aircraft, space-borne NOAA/AVHRR data and ground-based lidars A wide range of aerosol types was encountered throughout the ACE-2 area, including background Atlantic marine, European pollution-derived, and African mineral dust. During !he two days discussed here, vertical profiles flown in cloud free air masses revealed three distinctly different layers: a marine boundary layer (MBL) with varying pollution levels, an elevated dust layer, and a very clean layer between the MBL and the dust layer. We found that the presence of the elevated dust layer removes the good agreement between satellite and sunphotometer AOD usually found in the absence of the dust layer. Using size-resolved composition information we have computed optical properties of the ambient aerosol from the in-situ measurements and subsequently compared those to the sunphotometer results. In the dust, the agreement in layer aerosol optical depth (380-1060 nm) is 3-8%. In the MBL there is tendency for the in-situ results to be slightly lower than the sunphotometer measurements (10-17% at 525 nm), but these differences are within the combined error bars of the measurements and computations.

Schmid, Beat↗

NASA NTRS2001

Comparison of ER-2 Aircraft and POAM-III, MLS, and SAGE-II Satellite Measurements During SOLVE Using Traditional Correlative Analysis and Trajectory Hunting Technique

We compared the version 5 Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) aboard the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS), version 3 Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement-III (POAM-111) aboard the French satellite SPOT-IV, version 6.0 Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 11 (SAGE-II) aboard the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite, and NASA ER-2 aircraft measurements made in the northern hemisphere in January-February 2000 during the SAGE III Ozone Loss and Validation Experiment (SOLVE). This study addresses one of the key scientific objectives of the SOLVE campaign, namely, to validate multi-platform satellite measurements made in the polar stratosphere during winter. This intercomparison was performed using a traditional correlative analysis (TCA) and a trajectory hunting technique (THT). Launching backward and forward trajectories from the points of measurement, the THT identifies air parcels sampled at least twice within a prescribed match criterion during the course of 5 days. We found that the ozone measurements made by these four instruments agree most of the time within 110% in the stratosphere up to 1400 K (approximately 35 km). The water vapor measurements from POAM-III and the ER-2 Harvard Lyman-alpha hygrometer and JPL laser hygrometer agree to within 10.5 ppmv (or about +/-10%) in the lower stratosphere above 380 K. The MLS and ER-2 ClO measurements agree within their error bars for the TCA. The MLS and ER-2 nitric acid measurements near 17-20 km altitude agree within their uncertainties most of the time with a hint of a positive offset by MLS according to the TCA. We also applied the AER box model constrained by the ER-2 measurements for analysis of the ClO and HN03 measurements using the THT. We found that: (1) the model values of ClO are smaller by about 0.3-0.4 (0.2) ppbv below (above) 400 K than those by MLS and (2) the HN03 comparison shows a positive offset of MLS values by approximately 1 and 1-2 ppbv below 400 K and near 450 K, respectively. It is hard to quantify the HN03 offset in the 400-440 K range because of the high sensitivity of nitric acid to the PSC schemes. Our study shows that, with some limitations (like HN03 comparison under PSC conditions), the THT is a more powerful tool for validation studies than the TCA, making conclusions of the comparison statistically more robust.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Global Monitoring of Clouds and Aerosols Using a Network of Micro-Pulse Lidar Systems

Long-term global radiation programs, such as AERONET and BSRN, have shown success in monitoring column averaged cloud and aerosol optical properties. Little attention has been focused on global measurements of vertically resolved optical properties. Lidar systems are the preferred instrument for such measurements. However, global usage of lidar systems has not been achieved because of limits imposed by older systems that were large, expensive, and logistically difficult to use in the field. Small, eye-safe, and autonomous lidar systems are now currently available and overcome problems associated with older systems. The first such lidar to be developed is the Micro-pulse lidar System (MPL). The MPL has proven to be useful in the field because it can be automated, runs continuously (day and night), is eye-safe, can easily be transported and set up, and has a small field-of-view which removes multiple scattering concerns. We have developed successful protocols to operate and calibrate MPL systems. We have also developed a data analysis algorithm that produces data products such as cloud and aerosol layer heights, optical depths, extinction profiles, and the extinction-backscatter ratio. The algorithm minimizes the use of a priori assumptions and also produces error bars for all data products. Here we present an overview of our MPL protocols and data analysis techniques. We also discuss the ongoing construction of a global MPL network in conjunction with the AERONET program. Finally, we present some early results from the MPL network.

Welton, Ellsworth J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Tracer-Based Determination of Vortex Descent in the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter

A detailed analysis of available in situ and remotely sensed N2O and CH4 data measured in the 1999-2000 winter Arctic vortex has been performed in order to quantify the temporal evolution of vortex descent. Differences in potential temperature (theta) among balloon and aircraft vertical profiles (an average of 19-23 K on a given N2O or CH4 isopleth) indicated significant vortex inhomogeneity in late fall as compared with late winter profiles. A composite fall vortex profile was constructed for November 26, 1999, whose error bars encompassed the observed variability. High-latitude, extravortex profiles measured in different years and seasons revealed substantial variability in N2O and CH4 on theta surfaces, but all were clearly distinguishable from the first vortex profiles measured in late fall 1999. From these extravortex-vortex differences, we inferred descent prior to November 26: 397+/-15 K (1sigma) at 30 ppbv N2O and 640 ppbv CH4, and 28+/-13 K above 200 ppbv N2O and 1280 ppbv CH4. Changes in theta were determined on five N2O and CH4 isopleths from November 26 through March 12, and descent rates were calculated on each N2O isopleth for several time intervals. The maximum descent rates were seen between November 26 and January 27: 0.82+/-0.20 K/day averaged over 50-250 ppbv N2O. By late winter (February 26-March 12), the average rate had decreased to 0.10+/-0.25 K/day. Descent rates also decreased with increasing N2O; the winter average (November 26-March 5) descent rate varied from 0.75+/-0.10 K/day at 50 ppbv to 0.40+/-0.11 K/day at 250 ppbv. Comparison of these results with observations and models of descent in prior years showed very good overall agreement. Two models of the 1999-2000 vortex descent, SLIMCAT and REPROBUS, despite theta offsets with respect to observed profiles of up to 20 K on most tracer isopleths, produced descent rates that agreed very favorably with the inferred rates from observation.

Greenblatt, Jeffery B.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Clear-Sky Closure Studies of Lower Tropospheric Aerosol and Water Vapor During ACE-2 Using Airborne Sunphotometer, Airborne In-Situ, Space-Borne, and Ground-Based Measurements

Schmid, Beat↗

NASA NTRS2002

Airborne Sunphotometer Measurements of Aerosol Optical Depth and Water Vapor in ACE-Asia and Their Comparisons to Correlative Measurements

In the Spring 2001 phase of the Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia), the 6-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sunphotometer (AATS-6) operated on 15 of the 19 research flights of the NCAR C-130, while its 14-channel counterpart (AATS-14) flew successfully on all 19 research flights of the CIRPAS Twin Otter. ACE-Asia studied aerosol outflow from the Asian continent to the Pacific basin. It was designed to integrate suborbital and satellite measurements and models to reduce the uncertainty in calculations of the climate forcing due to aerosols. AATS-6 and AATS-14 measured solar beam transmission at six and 14 wavelengths (380-1021 and 354-1558 nm, respectively), yielding aerosol optical depth (AOD) spectra and columnar water vapor (CWV). Vertical differentiation in profiles yielded aerosol extinction spectra and water vapor concentration. In this paper, we plan to present examples of the following, preliminary findings that are based in part on our airborne sunphotometer measurements: (1) The wavelength dependence of sunphotometer-derived AOD and extinction indicates that supermicron dust was often a major component of the aerosol, frequently extending to high altitudes. The percentage of full-column AOD (525 nm) that Jay above 3 km was typically 34+/-13%. In contrast, the analogous percentage of columnar water vapor was only 10+/-4%; (2) Initial comparison studies between AOD data obtained by AATS-6 and AATS-14 during coordinated low-level flight legs show agreement well within the instruments' error bars; (3) Aerosol extinction has been derived from airborne in situ measurements of scattering (nephelometers) and absorption (particle soot/ absorption photometer, PSAP) or calculated from particle size distribution measurements (mobility analyzers and aerodynamic particle sizers). Comparison with corresponding extinction values derived from the Ames airborne sunphotometer measurements shows good agreement for the vertical distribution of aerosol layers. However, the level of agreement in absolute magnitude of the derived aerosol extinction/optical depth varied among the aerosol layers sampled; (4) Initial comparisons of sunphotometer and satellite-derived AOD using SeaWiFS, MISR and AVHRR show promising results. We also plan to include comparisons with MODIS and TOMS: (5) Initial comparisons of sunphotometer-derived AOD and aerosol extinction profiles with lidars in Tokyo and on a ship show reasonable agreement.

Schmid, B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Resonance in Quasi-Periodic Oscillators of Neutron Star Binaries

Using a large quantity of Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer data presented in the literature, I offer a detailed investigation into the accuracy of the quasi-periodic oscillation (QPO) frequency determination. The QPO phenomenon seen in X-ray binaries is possibly a result of the resonance of the intrinsic (eigen) oscillations and harmonic driving forces of the system. I show that the resonances, in the presence of the damping of oscillations, occur at frequencies that are systematically and randomly shifted with respect to the eigenfrequencies of the system. The shift value strongly depends on the damping rate that is measured by the half-width of the QPO feature. Taking into account this effect, I analyze the QPO data for four Z sources, Scorpius X-I, GX 340+0, GX 5-1, and GX 17+2, and two atoll sources, 4U 1728-34 and 4U 0614+09. The transition-layer model (TLM) predicts the existence of the invariant quantity delta, an inclination angle of the magnetospheric axis with respect to the normal to the disk. I calculate delta and the error bars of delta using the resonance shift, and I find that the inferred delta-values are consistent with constants for these four Z sources, in which horizontal-branch oscillation and kilohertz frequencies have been detected and correctly identified. It is shown that the inferred delta are in the range between 5.5 deg and 6.5 deg. I conclude that the TLM seems to be compatible with the data.

Titarchuk, Lev↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Use of Sage Water Vapor Data for Investigating Climate Change Issues

SAGE water vapor data has proven valuable for addressing several of the important issues in climate change research. It has been used to investigate how the upper troposphere water vapor responds to warming and convection, a key question in understanding the water vapor feedback to anthropogenic global warming. In the case of summer versus winter differences, SAGE results showed that the upper tropospheric relative humidity remained approximately constant; this result was in general agreement with how a GCM handled the seasonal difference, and gave credence to the argument that the GCM was not overestimating the water vapor feedback associated with convection. In addition, the convection-water vapor relationship was investigated further using SAGE water vapor and ISCCP cloud data. The results showed that upper tropospheric drying did appear to occur simultaneously with deep convective events in the tropics, only to be replaced by moistening a few hours later, associated (most likely) with the reevaporation of moisture from anvil clouds. The total effect was, again, a moistening of the upper troposphere associated with convection. Calculation of the actual trends in upper tropospheric moisture is a potential goal for SAGE data usage; trends calculated with radiosonde data, or instruments calibrated with radiosonde data have the problem of the effect of changing radiosonde instruments. SAGE data have in effect been used to compare different radiosondes through comparisons, and could continue to do so. SAGE 3 should also help clarify the absolute accuracy of SAGE retrievals in the troposphere. and its consequences. Model results show that water vapor increases can help explain the observations of stratospheric cooling, along with increasing C02 and ozone reduction. SAGE has been shown to provide trends similar to those of some other satellite and in situ retrievals, with increasing water vapor over time. However, SAGE is impacted by aerosol contamination which must be removed from the data; approaches used in the past will be reviewed. The SAGE water vapor errors, if taken literally, would make it hard to justify using SAGE data for such trends, and the error bars must be investigated. Stratospheric water vapor increases, like tropospheric increases, would lead to noticeable warming at the surface, and their changes must be quantified.

Rind, D.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Tool for Verification and Validation of Neural Network Based Adaptive Controllers for High Assurance Systems

High reliability of mission- and safety-critical software systems has been identified by NASA as a high-priority technology challenge. We present an approach for the performance analysis of a neural network (NN) in an advanced adaptive control system. This problem is important in the context of safety-critical applications that require certification, such as flight software in aircraft. We have developed a tool to measure the performance of the NN during operation by calculating a confidence interval (error bar) around the NN's output. Our tool can be used during pre-deployment verification as well as monitoring the network performance during operation. The tool has been implemented in Simulink and simulation results on a F-15 aircraft are presented.

Gupta, Pramod↗

NASA NTRS2004

Performance and Reliability Optimization for Aerospace Systems subject to Uncertainty and Degradation

This report summarizes work performed by the Space Systems Laboratory (SSL) for NASA Langley Research Center in the field of performance optimization for systems subject to uncertainty. The objective of the research is to develop design methods and tools to the aerospace vehicle design process which take into account lifecycle uncertainties. It recognizes that uncertainty between the predictions of integrated models and data collected from the system in its operational environment is unavoidable. Given the presence of uncertainty, the goal of this work is to develop means of identifying critical sources of uncertainty, and to combine these with the analytical tools used with integrated modeling. In this manner, system uncertainty analysis becomes part of the design process, and can motivate redesign. The specific program objectives were: 1. To incorporate uncertainty modeling, propagation and analysis into the integrated (controls, structures, payloads, disturbances, etc.) design process to derive the error bars associated with performance predictions. 2. To apply modern optimization tools to guide in the expenditure of funds in a way that most cost-effectively improves the lifecycle productivity of the system by enhancing the subsystem reliability and redundancy. The results from the second program objective are described. This report describes the work and results for the first objective: uncertainty modeling, propagation, and synthesis with integrated modeling.

Miller, David W.↗

NASA NTRS2004

A New, More Physically Based Algorithm, for Retrieving Aerosol Properties over Land from MODIS

The MOD Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) has been successfully retrieving aerosol properties, beginning in early 2000 from Terra and from mid 2002 from Aqua. Over land, the retrieval algorithm makes use of three MODIS channels, in the blue, red and infrared wavelengths. As part of the validation exercises, retrieved spectral aerosol optical thickness (AOT) has been compared via scatterplots against spectral AOT measured by the global Aerosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET). On one hand, global and long term validation looks promising, with two-thirds (average plus and minus one standard deviation) of all points falling between published expected error bars. On the other hand, regression of these points shows a positive y-offset and a slope less than 1.0. For individual regions, such as along the U.S. East Coast, the offset and slope are even worse. Here, we introduce an overhaul of the algorithm for retrieving aerosol properties over land. Some well-known weaknesses in the current aerosol retrieval from MODIS include: a) rigid assumptions about the underlying surface reflectance, b) limited aerosol models to choose from, c) simplified (scalar) radiative transfer (RT) calculations used to simulate satellite observations, and d) assumption that aerosol is transparent in the infrared channel. The new algorithm attempts to address all four problems: a) The new algorithm will include surface type information, instead of fixed ratios of the reflectance in the visible channels to the mid-IR reflectance. b) It will include updated aerosol optical properties to reflect the growing aerosol retrieved from eight-plus years of AERONE". operation. c) The effects of polarization will be including using vector RT calculations. d) Most importantly, the new algorithm does not assume that aerosol is transparent in the infrared channel. It will be an inversion of reflectance observed in the three channels (blue, red, and infrared), rather than iterative single channel retrievals. Thus, this new formulation of the MODIS aerosol retrieval over land includes more physically based surface, aerosol and radiative transfer with fewer potentially erroneous assumptions.

Levy, Robert C.↗