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Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

Nelson, R. F.

Test Plan for a Calibration Demonstration System for the Reflected Solar Instrument for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change. One of the major objectives of CLARREO is to advance the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration at infrared and reflected solar wavelengths. This advance is required to reach the on-orbit absolute accuracy required to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps while remaining sufficiently accurate to observe climate change to within the uncertainty of the limit of natural variability. While these capabilities exist at NIST in the laboratory, there is a need to demonstrate that it can move successfully from NIST to NASA and/or instrument vendor capabilities for future spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the test plan for the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. The goal of the CDS is to allow the testing and evaluation of calibration approaches , alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The end result of efforts with the SOLARIS CDS will be an SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climate-quality data collections. The CLARREO mission addresses the need to observe high-accuracy, long-term climate change trends and advance the accuracy of SI traceable absolute calibration. The current work describes the test plan for the SOLARIS which is the calibration demonstration system for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. SOLARIS provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. The end result will be an SI-traceable error budget for reflectance retrieval using solar irradiance as a reference and methods for laboratory-based, absolute calibration suitable for climate-quality data collections.

Thome, Kurtis

Instrumentation and First Results of the Reflected Solar Demonstration System for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission key goals include enabling observation of high accuracy long-term climate change trends, use of these observations to test and improve climate forecasts, and calibration of operational and research sensors. The spaceborne instrument suites include a reflected solar spectroradiometer, emitted infrared spectroradiometer, and radio occultation receivers. The requirement for the RS instrument is that derived reflectance must be traceable to Sl standards with an absolute uncertainty of <0.3% and the error budget that achieves this requirement is described in previo1L5 work. This work describes the Solar/Lunar Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS), a calibration demonstration system for RS instrument, and presents initial calibration and characterization methods and results. SOLARIS is an Offner spectrometer with two separate focal planes each with its own entrance aperture and grating covering spectral ranges of 320-640, 600-2300 nm over a full field-of-view of 10 degrees with 0.27 milliradian sampling. Results from laboratory measurements including use of integrating spheres, transfer radiometers and spectral standards combined with field-based solar and lunar acquisitions are presented. These results will be used to assess the accuracy and repeatability of the radiometric and spectral characteristics of SOLARIS, which will be presented against the sensor-level requirements addressed in the CLARREO RS instrument error budget.

McCorkel, Joel

Differential tracking data types for accurate and efficient Mars planetary navigation

Ways in which high-accuracy differential observations of two or more deep space vehicles can dramatically extend the power of earth-based tracking over conventional range and Doppler tracking are discussed. Two techniques - spacecraft-spacecraft differential very long baseline interferometry (S/C-S/C Delta(VLBI)) and same-beam interferometry (SBI) - are discussed. The tracking and navigation capabilities of conventional range, Doppler, and quasar-relative Delta(VLBI) are reviewed, and the S/C-S/C Delta (VLBI) and SBI types are introduced. For each data type, the formation of the observable is discussed, an error budget describing how physical error sources manifest themselves in the observable is presented, and potential applications of the technique for Space Exploration Initiative scenarios are examined. Requirements for spacecraft and ground systems needed to enable and optimize these types of observations are discussed.

Edwards, C. D., Jr.

Tidal Implications for the GRACE Satellite Mission

A fundamental part of the processing of the GRACE satellite data will be correction for the gravitational effect of tides. This includes solid earth, ocean, and atmospheric tides. The most problematic are ocean tides in shallow seas and in high latitudes (above the 66$^{\circ}$ inclination of Topex). Somewhat smaller, but still important, errors are associated with the S$_1$ air tide and the ocean's dynamic response to it. In this paper we explore several facets of the tidal error budget. The ocean tide error spectrum is estimated (a) by inverse methods and (b) by simple differencing of several of the best tidal models. The tidal error spectrum is flatter than the tidal signal spectrum, and it exceeds 10\% of the signal at degrees 15 and above. The tide errors also exceed the anticipated sensitivity of GRACE for all degrees below 40, and possibly below 50. The assumption of constant seawater density (of about 1035 kg\,M$^{-3}$) is a minor error source. Owing to GRACE's high inclination, solar tides are aliased to long periods, which is potentially problematic for geophysical interpretation of the gravity signal. Simulations of the effect of high-latitude solar-tide errors on gravity estimates around Antarctica will be discussed.

Ray, Richard D.

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.

Normalized Point Source Sensitivity for Off-Axis Optical Performance Evaluation of the Thirty Meter Telescope

The Normalized Point Source Sensitivity (PSSN) has previously been defined and analyzed as an On-Axis seeing-limited telescope performance metric. In this paper, we expand the scope of the PSSN definition to include Off-Axis field of view (FoV) points and apply this generalized metric for performance evaluation of the Thirty Meter Telescope (TMT). We first propose various possible choices for the PSSN definition and select one as our baseline. We show that our baseline metric has useful properties including the multiplicative feature even when considering Off-Axis FoV points, which has proven to be useful for optimizing the telescope error budget. Various TMT optical errors are considered for the performance evaluation including segment alignment and phasing, segment surface figures, temperature, and gravity, whose On-Axis PSSN values have previously been published by our group.

optical performance metric

Fundamental Problems In SmallSat Concept Development

The standardization of launch opportunities as secondary payloads, coupled with the miniaturization of digital electronics due to Moore’s law, has enabled a new class of space missions at greatly reduced costs – SmallSat missions. Unfortunately, the desires of concept developers are often in conflict with the limited technical budgets afforded within the constraints of a SmallSat mission. Chief amongst these limited technical budgets, ironically, are the limited mass and volume budgets that enable them in the first place.Mass and volume budgets are consumed in closure of the other technical budgets in space systems: science error budgets, delta-v and propellent budgets, power and energy budgets, and thermal budgets, to name a few. Most aspects of these budgets are unaffected by the miniaturization of digital electronics enabled by modern physics, but are instead governed by the laws of classical physics, worked out by Europeans, long since dead.The fundamental laws of classical physics provide the couplings between these budgets, and provide a way to help potential users realize the practical limitations inherent in SmallSat systems. Understanding the fundamental limitations better positions concept developers to find innovative solutions with these systems and not inefficiently pursue infeasible approaches to their needs.

Austin, Alexander

Radiometric Spacecraft Tracking for Deep Space Navigation

Interplanetary spacecraft navigation relies on three types of terrestrial tracking observables.1) Ranging measures the distance between the observing site and the probe. 2) The line-of-sight velocity of the probe is inferred from Doppler-shift by measuring the frequency shift of the received signal with respect to the unshifted frequency. 3) Differential angular coordinates of the probe with respect to natural radio sources are nominally obtained via a differential delay technique of (Delta) DOR (Delta Differential One-way Ranging). The accuracy of spacecraft coordinate determination depends on the measurement uncertainties associated with each of these three techniques. We evaluate the corresponding sources of error and present a detailed error budget.

ranging

X/Ka Celestial Frame Improvements: Vision to Reality

In order to extend the International Celestial Reference Frame from its S/X-band (2.3/8.4 GHz) basis to a complementary frame at X/Ka-band (8.4/32 GHz), we began in mid-2005 an ongoing series of X/Ka observations using NASA s Deep Space Network (DSN) radio telescopes. Over the course of 47 sessions, we have detected 351 extra-galactic radio sources covering the full 24 hours of right ascension and declinations down to -45 degrees. Angular source position accuracy is at the part-per-billion level. We developed an error budget which shows that the main errors arise from limited sensitivity, mismodeling of the troposphere, uncalibrated instrumental effects, and the lack of a southern baseline. Recent work has improved sensitivity by improving pointing calibrations and by increasing the data rate four-fold. Troposphere calibration has been demonstrated at the mm-level. Construction of instrumental phase calibrators and new digital baseband filtering electronics began in recent months. We will discuss the expected effect of these improvements on the X/Ka frame.

Jacobs, C. S.

Optical Budgeting for LUVOIR

Future large astronomical telescopes in space will have architectures that will have complex and demanding requirements to meet the science goals. The Large UV/Optical/IR Surveyor (LUVOIR) mission concept being assessed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center is expected to be 8 to 16 meters in diameter, have a segmented primary mirror, active control, and be diffraction limited at a wavelength of 500 nanometers. The optical stability is expected to be in the picometer range for minutes to hours. Architecture studies to support the NASA Science and Technology Definition teams (STDTs) are underway to evaluate systems performance. A wave front error budget has been developed to help define the technology needs and assess performance. The budget includes both spatial and temporal domain aspects for the active, adaptive and passive elements in the optical design.

space telescopes

Light and Strange Vector Resonances from Lattice QCD at Physical Quark Masses

We present the first ab initio calculation at physical quark masses of scattering amplitudes describing the lightest pseudoscalar mesons interacting via the strong force in the vector channel. Using lattice quantum chromodynamics, we postdict the defining parameters for two short-lived resonances, the ρ(770) and K*(892) which manifest as complex energy poles in ππ and Kπ scattering amplitudes, respectively. The calculation proceeds by first computing the finite-volume energy spectrum of the two-hadron systems and then determining the amplitudes from the energies using the Lüscher formalism. The error budget includes a data-driven systematic error, obtained by scanning possible fit ranges and fit models to extract the spectrum from Euclidean correlators, as well as the scattering amplitudes from the latter. The final results, obtained by analytically continuing multiple parametrizations into the complex energy plane, are M ρ = 796(5)(50)MeV, Γ ρ = 192(10)(31) MeV, M K* = 893(2)(54) MeV, and Γ K = 51(2)(11) MeV, where the subscript indicates the resonance and M and Γ stand for the mass and width, respectively, and where the first bracket indicates the statistical and the second bracket the systematic uncertainty.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS

Altimeter error sources at the 10-cm performance level

Error sources affecting the calibration and operational use of a 10 cm altimeter are examined to determine the magnitudes of current errors and the investigations necessary to reduce them to acceptable bounds. Errors considered include those affecting operational data pre-processing, and those affecting altitude bias determination, with error budgets developed for both. The most significant error sources affecting pre-processing are bias calibration, propagation corrections for the ionosphere, and measurement noise. No ionospheric models are currently validated at the required 10-25% accuracy level. The optimum smoothing to reduce the effects of measurement noise is investigated and found to be on the order of one second, based on the TASC model of geoid undulations. The 10 cm calibrations are found to be feasible only through the use of altimeter passes that are very high elevation for a tracking station which tracks very close to the time of altimeter track, such as a high elevation pass across the island of Bermuda. By far the largest error source, based on the current state-of-the-art, is the location of the island tracking station relative to mean sea level in the surrounding ocean areas.

Martin, C. F.

A statistical study of radio-source structure effects on astrometric very long baseline interferometry observations

Errors from a number of sources in astrometric very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) have been reduced in recent years through a variety of methods of calibration and modeling. Such reductions have led to a situation in which the extended structure of the natural radio sources used in VLBI is a significant error source in the effort to improve the accuracy of the radio reference frame. In the past, work has been done on individual radio sources to establish the magnitude of the errors caused by their particular structures. The results of calculations on 26 radio sources are reported in which an effort is made to determine the typical delay and delay-rate errors for a number of sources having different types of structure. It is found that for single observations of the types of radio sources present in astrometric catalogs, group-delay and phase-delay scatter in the 50 to 100 psec range due to source structure can be expected at 8.4 GHz on the intercontinental baselines available in the Deep Space Network (DSN). Delay-rate scatter of approx. 5 x 10(exp -15) sec sec(exp -1) (or approx. 0.002 mm sec (exp -1) is also expected. If such errors mapped directly into source position errors, they would correspond to position uncertainties of approx. 2 to 5 nrad, similar to the best position determinations in the current JPL VLBI catalog. With the advent of wider bandwidth VLBI systems on the large DSN antennas, the system noise will be low enough so that the structure-induced errors will be a significant part of the error budget. Several possibilities for reducing the structure errors are discussed briefly, although it is likely that considerable effort will have to be devoted to the structure problem in order to reduce the typical error by a factor of two or more.

Ulvestad, J. S.

Precision orbit determination for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission

Computation of precise orbits for the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) spacecraft is analyzed focusing on gravity field modeling, nonconservative force modeling, satellite tracking technologies, and orbit determination software. It was found that the radial orbit error budget for T/P allows 10 cm rms error due to gravity field mismodeling, 3 cm due to solid earth and ocean tides, and 6 cm due to radiative forces, and 3 cm due to atmospheric drag. It is concluded that the current models are capable of achieving the radial orbit error requirements.

Nerem, R. S.

TPF-C Performance Modeling

This slide presentation reviews the performance modeling of the Terrestrial Planet Finder Coronagraph (TPF-C). Included is a chart of the Error Budget Models, definitions of the static and dynamic terms, a chart showing the aberration sensitivity at 2 lambda/D, charts showing the thermal performance models and analysis, surface requirements, high-level requirements, and calculations for the beam walk model.Also included is a description of the control systems, and a flow for the iterative design and analysis cycle.

terrestrial planet finder

Comparing Compressed and Full-Modeling analyses with FOLPS: implications for DESI 2024 and beyond

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) will provide unprecedented information about the large-scale structure of our Universe. In this work, we study the robustness of the theoretical modelling of the power spectrum of F OLPS , a novel effective field theory-based package for evaluating the redshift space power spectrum in the presence of massive neutrinos. We perform this validation by fitting the AbacusSummit high-accuracy N -body simulations for Luminous Red Galaxies, Emission Line Galaxies and Quasar tracers, calibrated to describe DESI observations. We quantify the potential systematic error budget of F OLPS finding that the modelling errors are fully sub-dominant for the DESI statistical precision within the studied range of scales. Additionally, we study two complementary approaches to fit and analyse the power spectrum data, one based on direct Full-Modelling fits and the other on the ShapeFit compression variables, both resulting in very good agreement in precision and accuracy. In each of these approaches, we study a set of potential systematic errors induced by several assumptions, such as the choice of template cosmology, the effect of prior choice in the nuisance parameters of the model, or the range of scales used in the analysis. Furthermore, we show how opening up the parameter space beyond the vanilla ΛCDM model affects the DESI observables. These studies include the addition of massive neutrinos, spatial curvature, and dark energy equation of state. We also examine how relaxing the usual Cosmic Microwave Background and Big Bang Nucleosynthesis priors on the primordial spectral index and the baryonic matter abundance, respectively, impacts the inference on the rest of the parameters of interest. This paper pathways towards performing a robust and reliable analysis of the shape of the power spectrum of DESI galaxy and quasar clustering using F OLPS .

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS

Evaluation of CALIOP 532-nm Aerosol Optical Depth Over Opaque Water Clouds

With its height-resolved measurements and near global coverage, the CALIOP lidar onboard the CALIPSO satellite offers a new capability for aerosol retrievals in cloudy skies. Validation of these retrievals is difficult, however, as independent, collocated and co-temporal data sets are generally not available. In this paper, we evaluate CALIOP aerosol products above opaque water clouds by applying multiple retrieval techniques to CALIOP Level 1 profile data and comparing the results. This approach allows us to both characterize the accuracy of the CALIOP above-cloud aerosol optical depth (AOD) and develop an error budget that quantifies the relative contributions of different error sources. We focus on two spatial domains: the African dust transport pathway over the tropical North Atlantic and the African smoke transport pathway over the southeastern Atlantic. Six years of CALIOP observations (2007-2012) from the northern hemisphere summer and early fall are analyzed. The analysis is limited to cases where aerosol layers are located above opaque water clouds so that a constrained retrieval technique can be used to directly retrieve 532 nm aerosol optical depth and lidar ratio. For the moderately dense Sahara dust layers detected in the CALIOP data used in this study, the mean/median values of the lidar ratios derived from a constrained opaque water cloud (OWC) technique are 45.1/44.4 +/- 8.8 sr, which are somewhat larger than the value of 40 +/- 20 sr used in the CALIOP Level 2 (L2) data products. Comparisons of CALIOP L2 AOD with the OWC-retrieved AOD reveal that for nighttime conditions the L2 AOD in the dust region is underestimated on average by approx. 26% (0.183 vs. 0.247). Examination of the error sources indicates that errors in the L2 dust AOD are primarily due to using a lidar ratio that is somewhat too small. The mean/median lidar ratio retrieved for smoke is 70.8/70.4 +/- 16.2 sr, which is consistent with the modeled value of 70 +/- 28 sr used in the CALIOP L2 retrieval. Smoke AOD is found to be underestimated, on average, by approx. 39% (0.191 vs. 0.311). The primary cause of AOD differences in the smoke transport region is the tendency of the CALIOP layer detection scheme to prematurely assign layer base altitudes and thus underestimate the geometric thickness of smoke layers.

Liu, Z.