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NASA NTRS2016

Experiment Design and Characterization for the Study of Afterbody Radiation During Mars Entry

Recent work has shown that a significant contributor to the afterbody aeroheating during Mars entry is radiation. However, relevant ground test data is not available to help assess the uncertainty associated with prediction of the radiation when designing the thermal protection system for the aeroshell afterbody. The present work is aimed at designing an experiment which allows the study of the afterbody radiation experienced during Mars entry. The X2 expansion tube at the University of Queensland is used to generate the relevant experimental freestream flow conditions. Analysis is carried out to accurately characterize the generated experimental freestream conditions. A two dimensional wedge model is used to produce the expanding flow which simulates aspects of the afterbody flow around Mars entry vehicles. Preliminary analysis of the generated expanding flow shows that it produces significant radiation in the mid-infrared region and has a steady duration of about 50-110 μs. This allows emission spectroscopy to be conducted in the future.

Gu, S.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observed Impacts

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2000

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2018

The JPSS CrIS Instrument and the Evolution of Space-Based Infrared Sounders

This paper will summarize the development of infrared sounders since the 1970s, describe the technological hurdles that were overcome to provide ever-increasing performance capabilities, and highlight the radiometric performance of the CrIS instrument on JPSS-1 (CrIS-JPSS1). This includes details of the CrIS-JPSS1 measured noise-equivalent spectral radiance (NEdN) performance, radiometric uncertainty performance utilizing a new and improved internal calibration target, short-term and long-term repeatability, spectral uncertainty, and spectral stability. In addition, the full-resolution operating modes for CrIS-JPSS1 will be reviewed, including a discussion of how these modes will be used during on-orbit characterization tests. We will provide a brief update of CrIS-SNPP on-obit performance and the production status of the CrIS instruments for JPSS-2 through JPSS-4. Current technological challenges will also be reviewed, including how ongoing research and development is enabling improvements to future sounders. The expanding usage of infrared sounding data will also be discussed, including demonstration of value via data assimilation, the roles of the public/private sector in communicating the importance of sounding data for long-term observations, and the long road to success from research to operational data products.

Glumb, Ronald↗

NASA NTRS1990

Nonintrusive nitric oxide density measurements in the effluent of core-heated airstreams

Transmittance measurements using an NO resonance source are reported for an expanded arc-heated flow. The data are used to deduce NO concentrations, which range from 0.17 to 1.9 percent by volume for facility operating conditions with nozzle exit static temperatures from 87 to 320 K. Absorption measurements in the (0,1) band, not attributable to a flow at thermal equilibrium, are used to calculate nonequilibrium vibrational temperatures ranging from 533 to 919 K. The data are in good agreement with the vibrational-temperature predictions of a one-dimensional relaxation code, within the uncertainties of calculations and measured transmittance.

Howard, R. P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Radiation Effect on Human Tissue

Predicting the occurrence of human cancer following exposure of an epidemiologic population to any agent causing genetic damage is a difficult task. To an approximation, this is because the uncertainty of uniform exposure to the damaging agent, and the uncertainty of uniform processing of that damage within a complex set of biological variables, degrade the confidence of predicting the delayed expression of cancer as a relatively rare event within clinically normal individuals. This situation begs the need for alternate controlled experimental models that are predictive for the development of human cancer following exposures to agents causing genetic damage. Such models historically have not been of substantial proven value. It is more recently encouraging, however, that developments in molecular and cell biology have led to an expanded knowledge of human carcinogenesis, and of molecular markers associated with that process. It is therefore appropriate to consider new laboratory models developed to accomodate that expanded knowledge in order to assess the cancer risks associated with exposures to genotoxic agents. When ionizing radiation of space is the genotoxic agent, then a series of additional considerations for human cancer risk assessment must also be applied. These include the dose of radiation absorbed by tissue at different locations in the body, the quality of the absorbed radiation, the rate at which absorbed dose accumulates in tissue, the way in which absorbed dose is measured and calculated, and the alterations in incident radiation caused by shielding materials. It is clear that human cancer risk assessment for damage caused by ionizing radiation is a multidisciplinary responsibility, and that within this responsibility no single discipline can hold disproportionate sway if a risk assessment model of radiation-induced human cancer is to be developed that has proven value. Biomolecular and cellular markers from the work reported here are considered for use in assessing human cancer risk related to exposure to space radiation. This potential use must be integrated within the specified multidisciplinary context in order to create a new tool of molecular epidemiology that can hopefully then realistically assess this cancer risk.

Richmond, Robert C.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

crop model↗

NASA NTRS2006

NPSS Multidisciplinary Integration and Analysis

The objective of this task was to enhance the capability of the Numerical Propulsion System Simulation (NPSS) by expanding its reach into the high-fidelity multidisciplinary analysis area. This task investigated numerical techniques to convert between cold static to hot running geometry of compressor blades. Numerical calculations of blade deformations were iteratively done with high fidelity flow simulations together with high fidelity structural analysis of the compressor blade. The flow simulations were performed with the Advanced Ducted Propfan Analysis (ADPAC) code, while structural analyses were performed with the ANSYS code. High fidelity analyses were used to evaluate the effects on performance of: variations in tip clearance, uncertainty in manufacturing tolerance, variable inlet guide vane scheduling, and the effects of rotational speed on the hot running geometry of the compressor blades.

Hall, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS2023

A Framework for Estimating Global River Discharge From the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Satellite Mission

The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission will vastly expand measurements of global rivers, providing critical new data sets for both gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge products (available approximately 1 year after launch) will provide discharge for all river that reaches wider than 100 m. In this paper, we describe how SWOT discharge produced and archived by the US and French space agencies will be computed from measurements of river water surface elevation, width, and slope and ancillary data, along with expected discharge accuracy. We present for the first time a complete estimate of the SWOT discharge uncertainty budget, with separate terms for random (standard error) and systematic (bias) uncertainty components in river discharge time series. We expect that discharge uncertainty will be less than 30% for two-thirds of global reaches and will be dominated by bias. Separate river discharge estimates will combine both SWOT and in situ data; these “gage-constrained” discharge estimates can be expected to have lower systematic uncertainty. Temporal variations in river discharge time series will be dominated by random error and are expected to be estimated within 15% for nearly all reaches, allowing accurate inference of event flow dynamics globally, including in ungaged basins. We believe this level of accuracy lays the groundwork for SWOT to enable breakthroughs in global hydrologic science.

Michael Durand↗

NASA NTRS2026

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

mineral dust↗

NASA NTRS2016

Developing Atmospheric Retrieval Methods for Direct Imaging Spectroscopy of Gas Giants in Reflected Light I: Methane Abundances and Basic Cloud Properties

Reflected light spectroscopy and photometry of cool, directly imaged extrasolar giant planets are expected to be performed in the next decade by space-based telescopes equipped with optical wavelength coronagraphs and integral field spectrographs, such as the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST). We are developing a new atmospheric retrieval methodology to help assess the science return and inform the instrument design for such future missions, and ultimately interpret the resulting observations. Our retrieval technique employs an albedo model coupled with both a Markov chain Monte Carlo Ensemble Sampler (emcee) and a multimodal nested sampling algorithm (MultiNest) to map the posterior distribution. This combination makes the global evidence calculation more robust for any given model, and highlights possible discrepancies in the likelihood maps. Here we apply this methodology to simulated spectra of cool giant planets. As a proof-of-concept, our current atmospheric model contains 1 or 2 cloud layers, methane as a major absorber, and a H2-He background gas. This 6-to-9 parameter model is appropriate for Jupiter-like planets and can be easily expanded in the future. In addition to deriving the marginal likelihood distribution and confidence intervals for the model parameters, we perform model selection to determine the significance of methane and cloud detection as a function of expected signal-to-noise, in the presence of spectral noise correlations. After internal validation, the method is applied to realistic reflected-light spectra of Jupiter, Saturn, and HD 99492 c, a likely observing target. We find that the presence or absence of clouds and methane can be determined with high accuracy, while parameters uncertainties are model-dependent.

spectroscopy↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

NASA NTRS2024

Cost and Benefit Analysis of Mitigating, Tracking, and Remediating Orbital Debris

Presentation accompanying the technical report with the same name. The abstract for the report and the full study is repeated below. Orbital debris may collide with crewed and robotic spacecraft, placing them at risk. The wide range of debris, from 9,000-kilogram rocket bodies to millions of millimeter-size debris, has led to a similarly wide range of proposed actions for addressing the risks posed by debris. However, the costs and benefits of these actions have historically been unknown. This is a challenge for decision makers who are choosing which actions to support through technology development or policy changes. NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy is addressing these technical and economic uncertainties by building a capability to (1) complete rigorous calculations of the net present value of each action, (2) identify an optimal portfolio of actions to reduce risk, and (3) quantitatively analyze policies related to space sustainability. This report describes our progress toward that capability and to solicit feedback from the space and economic communities. Our previous work, referred to here as Phase 1, assessed the costs and benefits of performing debris remediation on operationally relevant timescales. The current analysis contains major updates to the risk model used in Phase 1 and expands the breadth of actions considered to include mitigating the creation of debris, improving the ability to track debris, and more methods for cleaning up existing debris. We demonstrate that our approach of measuring risks in dollars allows for the effectiveness of seemingly incommensurate actions to be compared and generates insights that other approaches to measuring risk have missed.

Jericho Locke↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cross-Calibration of Terra and Aqua MODIS Using RadCalNet

The twin MODIS instruments onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecraft have been successfully operating for nearly two decades and providing complementary observations of the Earth’s land, ocean, and atmosphere. Although the two MODIS instruments view the entire Earth’s surface once every 2-3 days, simultaneous views between them are limited due to their varying orbits. Therefore, the intercomparison between these two instruments has been previously performed using a transfer instrument (such as AVHRR) or using lunar measurements normalized using a common model such as the USGS ROLO. In recent years RadCalNet, a CEOS initiative, has provided SI-traceable Top-of-Atmosphere (TOA) reflectances from a coordinated network of instrumented land-based sites. RadCalNet facilitates a unique mechanism to perform cross-calibration of instruments by minimizing the uncertainties associated with overpass time differences. In this work, the near-simultaneous TOA reflectance measurements from the Railroad Valley, US (RVUS) are used as a transfer to compare the on-orbit observations for the Terra and Aqua MODIS RSB. Near-nadir overpasses from January 2013 to January 2019 are processed and matched up with near-simultaneous RadCalNet measurements. Results show that the VIS/NIR bands agree to within 2% and the SWIR bands agree to within 5%. Also, discussed in this work are the future efforts that will be undertaken to expand this comparison to include other instruments, other sites, and both nadir- and off-nadir views after compensation for BRDF effects.

Amit Angal↗

NASA NTRS2010

Large Scale Covariability in the Aerosol-SST-Precipitation Relation: A Satellite Perspective

Although large scale aerosol effects on precipitation have attracted increasing attention in recent years, significant uncertainties still remain in the current understanding of'such effects. One of the factors contributing to these uncertainties is the availability of aerosol data sets that are sufficiently long, stable, and comprehensive to be used for climate analysis. Such data sets are crucial for any long-term studies that are needed to demonstrate the statistical significance of large scale aerosol effects on precipitation when compared to the effects from other climate factors, such as remote or local sea surface temperature (SST) variability (ENSO. etc.). A longterm consistent aerosol product that complements the existing MODIS and AVHRR aerosol products is therefore needed to minimize aerosol data uncertainty issues for such Studies. The SeaWiFS instrument was primarily designed to measure ocean color, and it has been the mayor source for providing a comprehensive global data set of such measurements since its launch in 1997. Besides being used in this capacity, however, the well-calibrated set of radiances measured in the wavelength range from the visible (0.41 m) to the near infrared (0.87 m) is also well suited to creating long-term climate data records of aerosols. Recently, a new 13-year SeaWiFS aerosol optical depth dataset has been developed that expands its capacity to be used for such atmospheric studies. This SeaWiFS aerosol product provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to examine the covariability of aerosol, SST and precipitation on both a regional and global scale. We also use concurrent independent SST (NOAA Optimum Interpolation, OI, SST V2) and precipitation (GPCP V2) datasets for this study. We will present and discuss results from this study over several aerosol hot spot regions ( -,North Atlantic. South Atlantic, Western Pacific, Indian Ocean etc.) during the SeaWIFS data period (1997 -- current) from this study will be presented and discussed. These results will highlight the value and impact of this unique product to climate studies

Hsu, N. Christina↗

NASA NTRS1984

Large-scale inhomogeneities and galaxy statistics

The density fluctuations associated with the formation of large-scale cosmic pancake-like and filamentary structures are evaluated using the Zel'dovich approximation for the evolution of nonlinear inhomogeneities in the expanding universe. It is shown that the large-scale nonlinear density fluctuations in the galaxy distribution due to pancakes modify the standard scale-invariant correlation function xi(r) at scales comparable to the coherence length of adiabatic fluctuations. The typical contribution of pancakes and filaments to the J3 integral, and more generally to the moments of galaxy counts in a volume of approximately (15-40 per h Mpc)exp 3, provides a statistical test for the existence of large scale inhomogeneities. An application to several recent three dimensional data sets shows that despite large observational uncertainties over the relevant scales characteristic features may be present that can be attributed to pancakes in most, but not all, of the various galaxy samples.

Schaeffer, R.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Extravehicular Activity Asteroid Exploration and Sample Collection Capability

NASA's Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission (ARCM) is challenged with primary mission objectives of demonstrating deep space Extravehicular Activity (EVA) and tools, and obtaining asteroid samples to return to Earth for further study. Although the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) is used for the EVAs, it has limited mobility which increases fatigue and decreases the crews' capability to perform EVA tasks. Furthermore, previous Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) spacewalks have benefited from EVA interfaces which have been designed and manufactured on Earth. Rigid structurally mounted handrails, and tools with customized interfaces and restraints optimize EVA performance. For ARCM, some vehicle interfaces and tools can leverage heritage designs and experience. However, when the crew ventures onto an asteroid capture bag to explore the asteroid and collect rock samples, EVA complexity increases due to the uncertainty of the asteroid properties. The variability of rock size, shape and composition, as well as bunching of the fabric bag will complicate EVA translation, tool restraint and body stabilization. The unknown asteroid hardness and brittleness will complicate tool use. The rock surface will introduce added safety concerns for cut gloves and debris control. Feasible solutions to meet ARCM EVA objectives were identified using experience gained during Apollo, Shuttle, and ISS EVAs, terrestrial mountaineering practices, NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations (NEEMO) 16 mission, and during Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory testing in the MACES suit. The proposed concept utilizes expandable booms and integrated features of the asteroid capture bag to position and restrain the crew at the asteroid worksite. These methods enable the capability to perform both finesse, and high load tasks necessary to collect samples for scientific characterization of the asteroid. This paper will explore the design trade space and options that were examined for EVA, the overall concept for the EVAs including translation paths and body restraint methods, potential tools used to extract the samples, design implications for the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV) for EVA, the results of early development testing of potential EVA tasks, and extensibility of the EVA architecture to NASA's exploration missions.

Scoville, Zebulon↗

NASA NTRS2011

Assessing Uncertainties in Boundary Layer Transition Predictions for HIFiRE-1 at Non-zero Angles of Attack

Boundary layer stability was analyzed for the HIFiRE-1 flight vehicle geometry for ground tests conducted at the CUBRC LENS I hypersonic shock test facility and the Langley Research Center (LaRC) 20- inch Mach 6 Tunnel. Boundary layer stability results were compared to transition onset location obtained from discrete heat transfer measurements from thin film gauges during the CUBRC test and spatially continuous heat transfer measurements from thermal phosphor paint data during the LaRC test. The focus of this analysis was on conditions at non-zero angles of attack as stability analysis has already been performed at zero degrees angle of attack. Also, the transition onset data obtained during flight testing was at nonzero angles of attack, so this analysis could be expanded in the future to include the results of the flight test data. Stability analysis was performed using the 2D parabolized stability software suite STABL (Stability and Transition Analysis for Hypersonic Boundary Layers) developed at the University of Minnesota and the mean flow solutions were computed using the DPLR finite volume Navier-Stokes computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solver. A center line slice of the 3D mean flow solution was used for the stability analysis to incorporate the angle of attack effects while still taking advantage of the 2D STABL software suite. The N-factors at transition onset and the value of Re(sub theta)/M(sub e), commonly used to predict boundary layer transition onset, were compared for all conditions analyzed. Ground test data was analyzed at Mach 7.2 and Mach 6.0 and angles of attack of 1deg, 3deg and 5deg. At these conditions, the flow was found to be second mode dominant for the HIFiRE-1 slender cone geometry. On the leeward side of the vehicle, a strong trend of transition onset location with angle of attack was observed as the boundary layer on the leeward side of the vehicle developed inflection points at streamwise positions on the vehicle that correlated to angle of attack. Inflection points are a strong instability mechanism that lead to rapid breakdown and transition to turbulence. The transition onset location on the windward side of the vehicle displayed no trend with angle of attack or freestream Reynolds number and transition was observed farther down the vehicle than observed on the leeward side of the vehicle. In analysis of both windward and leeward sides of the vehicle, use of the N factor methodology to develop trends to predict boundary layer transition onset showed improvements over the Re(sub theta)/M(sub e) empirical correlation methodology. Stronger correlations and less scatter in the data were observed when using the N factor method for these cases.

Marek, Lindsay C.↗