Results for “extreme scenario generation” — Page 6

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows (IPPD) (Final Report)

This report details the accomplishments from the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows” under the award numbers FWP-66406 and DE-SC0012630, with a focus on the UC San Diego (Award No. DE-SC0012630) part of the accomplishments. We refer to the project as IPPD. The main activities of IPPD were centered on the development and integration of provenance information to capture empirically workflow information and identify the sources of bottlenecks as well as variability, and modeling and simulation to provide insights and predictively explore multiple scenarios for development of advanced techniques for optimization of resources and workflow execution. After a Phase I of the project, a Phase II effort focused on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. The project leveraged and extended our existing tools with new research and demonstrated our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Communication-Constrained Expansion Planning for Resilient Distribution Systems

Distributed generation and remotely controlled switches have emerged as important technologies to improve the resiliency of distribution grids against extreme weather-related disturbances. Therefore it becomes important to study how best to place them on the grid in order to meet a resiliency criteria, while minimizing costs and capturing their dependencies on the associated communication systems that sustain their distributed operations. This paper introduces the Optimal Resilient Design Problem for Distribution and Communication Systems (ORDPDC) to address this need. The ORDPDC is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer program that captures the physical laws of distribution systems, the communication connectivity of the smart grid components, and a set of scenarios that specifies which components are affected by potential disasters. The paper proposes an exact branch-and-price algorithm for the ORDPDC that features a strong lower bound and a variety of acceleration schemes to address degeneracy. The ORDPDC model and branch-and-price algorithm were evaluated on a variety of test cases with varying disaster intensities and network topologies. The results demonstrate the significant impact of the network topologies on the expansion plans and costs, as well as the computational benefits of the proposed approach.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Improving Primary Frequency Response in Networked Microgrid Operations using Multilayer Perceptron-Driven Reinforcement Learning

Individual microgrids can improve the reliability of power grids during extreme events, and networked microgrids can further improve efficiency through resource sharing and increase the resilience of critical end-use loads. However, networked microgrid operations are subject to large switching transients, which can cause dynamic instability and lead to system collapse. These transients are especially prevalent in microgrids with high penetrations of inverter-connected renewable energy resources, which do not provide the system inertia needed to mitigate the transients. Existing generator controls can be modified to invoke a drop in terminal voltage in response to a frequency deviation, thereby reducing load and improving frequency response. This paper investigates the use of a reinforcement-learning--based controller trained over several switching transient scenarios to modify generator controls during large frequency deviations. Compared to previously used proportional integral controllers, the proposed controller can improve primary frequency response while adapting to changes in system topologies and events.

Radhakrishnan, Nikitha↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prospects for silvicultural enhancement of fire resistance in mesic westside forests of the Pacific Northwest

Increasing wildfire activity in mesic, temperate Pacific Northwest forests west of the Cascade Range crest has stimulated interest in understanding whether alternative forest management practices could reduce risk of stand-replacing fire. To explore how management can enhance fire resistance in these forests and assess tradeoffs among resistance enhancement, carbon sequestration and storage, and economic returns, we conducted 40-year simulations of stand development with BioSum, a framework for conducting landscape analysis with the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), utilizing a statistically representative and spatially balanced sample of Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots. Simulation outcomes under business-as-usual silviculture were contrasted with fire-aware silviculture, and treatment optimization logic was developed and applied to represent landscape-scale outcomes under business-as-usual and fire-focused management scenarios. Simulation results indicate that fire-aware prescriptions and fire-focused management can meaningfully enhance stand- and landscape-scale fire resistance of westside forests under less than extreme fire weather, but at the cost of lower economic returns and reduced net carbon storage and sequestration over the 40-year analysis window. Shifting from business-as-usual regeneration harvests with short rotations to fire-aware, episodic selection harvest improved fire resistance the most, especially in young privately-owned forests, and with only modest tradeoffs in carbon and economic outcomes. While fire-aware treatments generally reduced net present value from forest operations over business-as-usual, most treatments still generated positive net present value and could be implemented without subsidy. Fire-aware prescriptions that removed and utilized non-merchantable harvest residues instead of burning them, via either pile or broadcast burning, partially mitigated carbon emissions associated with fire-aware treatments, with about the same improvement in fire resistance. Given the currently limited institutional and financial capacity to implement fire resistance enhancing treatments at scale, the insights from this analysis may aid managers seeking to elevate fire resistance to prioritize where and how to manage.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Generalized Framework for Service Restoration in a Resilient Power Distribution System

An electric power grid is one of the complex infrastructures, and because of its complex nature, there is simply no way that outages can be completely avoided. Thus, a modern society that depends on reliable electric supply requires a resilient electric system that can recover from disruptions while integrating emerging smart grid technologies. Here, this article presents a novel approach for service restoration in a modern power distribution system with controllable switches and distributed generation (DG) resources for any kind of outage. The proposed framework supports both the traditional service restoration using feeder reconfiguration and the grid-forming DG-assisted intentional islands that are dynamically sized using algorithms based on the fault scenario, available resources, and priority of loads. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program that incorporates critical system connectivity and operating constraints. Simulations are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a large-scale four-feeder 1069-bus three-phase unbalanced distribution test system. It is demonstrated that the framework is effective in utilizing all available resources in quickly restoring the power supply to improve resiliency during extreme events and is scalable for a large-scale unbalanced power distribution system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic Diffusion Models Advance Extreme Flood Forecasting

Extreme floods pose escalating risks in a changing climate, yet forecasting remains challenging due to peak flow underestimation and high uncertainty. We introduce diffusion-based runoff model (DRUM), a probabilistic deep learning (DL) approach that advances extreme flood forecasting across representative basins in the contiguous United States. DRUM outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks, enhancing nowcasting skill for the top 1‰ of flows in 72.3% of studied basins. Under operational scenarios, DRUM extends reliable lead times by nearly a full day for 20- and 50-year floods. When evaluated with measured precipitation, an ideal condition, recall improves by 0.3–0.4 and the early warning window extends by 2.3 days for 50-year floods. The enhancement potential varies regionally, with precipitation-driven flood zones in the eastern and northwestern US benefiting most, gaining 3–7 days in lead time. These findings highlight the transformative potential of diffusion models as a cutting-edge generative AI technique for advancing hydrology and broader Earth system sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

In the face of increasing frequency of extreme events, enhancing resilience and reliability of energy infrastructure demands innovative solutions. Hydropower, with its inherent generation flexibility and grid-forming capability, offers significant potential for enhancing power grid resilience through the establishment of microgrids. To enable informed decision-making and strategic planning, we present the Hydropower Resilience Database (HRD) that integrates data from various sources such as Oakridge National Laboratory (ORNL) HydroSource, National Inventory of Dams, and US Western Grid database. By integrating relevant information on hydropower plant characteristics, including dams, reservoirs, and connected electrical grid, this resource enables hydropower plant owners, utilities, and community stakeholders to identify and evaluate the feasibility of using hydropower resources in microgrids to support nearby communities and critical infrastructure in various challenging scenarios. Using HRD, a set of metrics are evaluated to quantify the capability of hydropower plants to support essential microgrid functions. An interactive tool is developed using ArcGIS, enabling the visualization and analysis using HRD. Our research contributes to strategic planning efforts for fortifying energy infrastructure, ensuring reliable power supply during disruptions, and advancing the development of robust and resilient energy systems in regions susceptible to grid vulnerabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Resilience Database for Assessing Microgrid Formation Capability and Enhancing Power Grid Resilience

In the face of increasing frequency of extreme events, enhancing resilience and reliability of energy infrastructure demands innovative solutions. Hydropower, with its inherent generation flexibility and grid-forming capability, offers significant potential for enhancing power grid resilience through the establishment of microgrids. To enable informed decision-making and strategic planning, we present the Hydropower Resilience Database (HRD) that integrates data from various sources such as Oakridge National Laboratory (ORNL) HydroSource, National Inventory of Dams, and US Western Grid database. By integrating relevant information on hydropower plant characteristics, including dams, reservoirs, and connected electrical grid, this resource enables hydropower plant owners, utilities, and community stakeholders to identify and evaluate the feasibility of using hydropower resources in microgrids to support nearby communities and critical infrastructure in various challenging scenarios. Using HRD, a set of metrics are evaluated to quantify the capability of hydropower plants to support essential microgrid functions. An interactive tool is developed using ArcGIS, enabling the visualization and analysis using HRD. Our research contributes to strategic planning efforts for fortifying energy infrastructure, ensuring reliable power supply during disruptions, and advancing the development of robust and resilient energy systems in regions susceptible to grid vulnerabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Power and Wind Shear Implications of Large Wind Turbine Scenarios in the US Central Plains

Continued growth of wind turbine physical dimensions is examined in terms of the implications for wind speed, power and shear across the rotor plane. High-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to generate statistics of wind speed profiles for scenarios of current and future wind turbines. The nine-month simulations, focused on the eastern Central Plains, show that the power scales broadly as expected with the increase in rotor diameter (D) and wind speeds at hub-height (H). Increasing wind turbine dimensions from current values (approximately H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to those of the new International Energy Agency reference wind turbine (H = 150 m, D = 240 m), the power across the rotor plane increases 7.1 times. The mean domain-wide wind shear exponent (α) decreases from 0.21 (H = 100 m, D = 100 m) to 0.19 for the largest wind turbine scenario considered (H = 168 m, D = 248 m) and the frequency of extreme positive shear (α > 0.2) declines from 48% to 38% of 10-min periods. Thus, deployment of larger wind turbines potentially yields considerable net benefits for both the wind resource and reductions in fatigue loading related to vertical shear.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Climate impacts in scenarios: time to close the loop?

Reaching a full understanding of the consequences of climate change for society and ecosystems, and the ensuing needs for adaptation, requires a consideration of the interactions between human and Earth systems. Currently, however, climate research largely separates the influence of society on climate from the influence of climate on society; that is, it doesn’t “close the loop.” A primary example of this approach is the generation and use of earth system model (ESM) simulations in the climate change research community. Large-scale socio-economic models, known as integrated assessment models (IAMs), are used to project emissions and land use change which serve as input to ESMs. ESM projections then serve as input to models of impacts on society and ecosystems. But, according to this modeling chain, those impacts do not affect the emissions and land use that drove the ESMs in the first place. Previous work has not drawn firm conclusions on whether this feedback would be large enough to warrant explicitly accounting for it. Two prominent possibilities, however, are that emissions and land use scenarios representing the high and low ends of the plausible range of future climate change are both too extreme. The high-end scenario may miss damaging impacts that would reduce economic activity, and therefore emissions, while the low-end scenario may ignore climate feedbacks that would make large-scale land-based carbon removal ineffective and therefore would hamper mitigation at the level assumed by the scenario. In this piece, we identify the opportunities and challenges that implementing such feedback loops would face. We argue that recent developments in climate impact research, human system modeling and ESM emulation make the time ripe to use IAMs in a structured model intercomparison exercise. Model intercomparison projects have benefitted the climate modeling community for decade snow, and more recently have also benefitted the impact modeling community. An IAM intercomparison focused on integrating impacts could make large strides in testing the implications of these feedbacks and assessing whether closing the loop would fundamentally change our outlook on future climate changes and their consequences.

Tebaldi, Claudia↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hybrid Grid-Renewable Strategies for Green Steel Production under Electricity Market Uncertainty

Volatility in grid spot prices is expected to rise with climate change-driven demand pressures and the intermittency of renewable generation. This volatility poses financial risks for green hydrogen-based steel production. The Direct Reduced Iron− Electric Arc Furnace (H 2 -DRI-EAF) is a promising pathway to decarbonize steel, which accounts for ∼8% of global GHG emissions. This study assesses how increased grid spot price volatility influences the optimal sizing and operation of H2-DRIEAF plants under three operational scenarios: grid-connected, fully behind-the-meter (islanded), and mixed-mode (semi-islanded). Our analysis identifies the semi-islanded configuration as the most cost-effective solution, achieving a Levelized Cost of Steel (LCOS) 10−35% lower than sourcing energy solely from the grid. Modeling also shows hydrogen storage or selective electricity purchases at high prices (>$1000/MWh) generally outperform battery storage, except under extreme volatility. Additionally, the study explores cost reduction strategies to strengthen the economic viability and sustainability of green steel production.

Batteries↗

DOE OSTI2021

Exploring Fabrication of Ultra-low Absorption, Multilayer, Hafnium High Reflectors

Ultra-low absorption, high damage threshold coatings are critical for the advancement of the high power CW laser technologies, and in most cases, are a limiting factor for the output power. Since high power CW laser systems enable extremely high power irradiances, when the light is incident on an HR mirror, part of the energy is absorbed and converted into heat, which can have many detrimental side effects. The worst-case scenarios are optical distortion and laser-induced damage. These optics must operate reliably with irradiances of 100's kW/cm 2 to MW/cm 2 . The highest pulsed laser damage threshold high reflectors are consistently fabricated with hafnia material. However, hafnia is not the material of choice for high power CW laser systems because of very high absorption and scatter properties, factors of >100x higher than tantala-silica, due to its poly crystalline nature. This study focuses on CW laser use applications, where the coatings’ laser damage resistance is largely limited by the inherent absorption of the coating materials. The goal is to study the feasibility of utilizing a “composite” hafnium-silica and a “doped” hafnia-silica target materials to prohibit crystallization. The results from the study were extremely successful. Hafnia high reflectors coatings generated from this study exhibited one micron absorption values of approximately 1 ppm, which are the lowest reported values to date.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Hydrogen Energy Storage System at Borrego Springs Towards an H2 Enabled 100 Renewable Microgrid

San Diego Gas & Electric's Borrego Springs Microgrid is one of the largest microgrids in the USA, serving 2500 residential customers, 300 commercial and industrial customers, and has a peak demand of approximately 14 MW. This microgrid is located at the end of a long transmission line, and is subjected to extreme weather events like storms, wildfires, and flooding, which frequently cause grid outages. The microgrid currently relies on 3.65 MW of diesel-powered generators to provide grid-forming services during these outages, which results in greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. However, the microgrid has access to approximately 37 MW of installed solar generation and struggles with overgeneration and curtailment. 1.5 MW/4.5 MWh of grid-scale batteries have been installed to capture some the overgeneration and provide resiliency, but a longer-duration low-greenhouse gas emission energy storage solution is needed. In our project, the team will evaluate in the lab and demonstrate in the field a grid-forming fuel cell inverter that can provide grid-forming services while utilizing hydrogen's energy storage scalability. We will first utilize NREL's Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform to perform analyses on future microgrid scenarios that use hydrogen assets to reduce or eliminate the need for diesel backup generators. We will then evaluate the grid-forming inverter through power hardware-in-the-loop and controller hardware-in-the-loop experiments at ARIES, and de-risk the field deployment and operation of hydrogen assets in the microgrid setting. Finally, this project will demonstrate the operation of the fuel cell inverter and updated microgrid controller by operating in grid-forming mode in the Borrego Springs microgrid.

Borrego Springs↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hydrogen Energy Storage System at Borrego Springs Towards an H2 Enabled 100% Renewable Microgrid

San Diego Gas & Electric's Borrego Springs Microgrid is one of the largest microgrids in the USA, serving 2500 residential customers, 300 commercial and industrial customers, and has a peak demand of approximately 14 MW. This microgrid is located at the end of a long transmission line, and is subjected to extreme weather events like storms, wildfires, and flooding, which frequently cause grid outages. The microgrid currently relies on 3.65 MW of diesel-powered generators to provide grid-forming services during these outages, which results in greenhouse gas and criteria pollutant emissions. However, the microgrid has access to approximately 37 MW of installed solar generation and struggles with overgeneration and curtailment. 1.5 MW/4.5 MWh of grid-scale batteries have been installed to capture some the overgeneration and provide resiliency, but a longer-duration low-greenhouse gas emission energy storage solution is needed. In our project, the team will evaluate in the lab and demonstrate in the field a grid-forming fuel cell inverter that can provide grid-forming services while utilizing hydrogen's energy storage scalability. We will first utilize NREL's Renewable Energy Integration and Optimization (REopt) platform to perform analyses on future microgrid scenarios that use hydrogen assets to reduce or eliminate the need for diesel backup generators. We will then evaluate the grid-forming inverter through power hardware-in-the-loop and controller hardware-in-the-loop experiments at ARIES, and de-risk the field deployment and operation of hydrogen assets in the microgrid setting. Finally, this project will demonstrate the operation of the fuel cell inverter and updated microgrid controller by operating in grid-forming mode in the Borrego Springs microgrid.

blackstart with fuel cells↗

DOE OSTI2026

Heavy long-lived dark vector via a gluonic portal

We study a dark gauge boson Z′ that exclusively couples to the QCD gluons through higher dimensional operators. These operators are generated from integrating out of heavy ultraviolet resonances carrying both QCD and dark gauge charges. With SU(3)C gauge invariance, charge and parity symmetries preserved, we find that the leading effective operators are restricted to have the form of Z′GGG and Z′Z′GG at dimension-eight, which can naturally render the Z′ particle long-lived, and serve as a viable dark matter candidate. We investigate the phenomenology of these operators with both collider experiments and cosmological observation, without and with the assumption that this dark gauge boson plays the role of the dominant dark matter component. For an unstable Z′, we show that depending on its lifetime, it can be probed by various observables up to ultraviolet physics scale around 10 9 GeV. For Z′ being dark matter, we find that $m_{Z'}$ ≳ 1 TeV is consistent with the thermal freeze-out scenario. In contrast, in the freeze-in scenario, the extremely small couplings leave the relevant parameter space largely unconstrained by current experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interactions Between Climate Mean and Variability Drive Future Agroecosystem Vulnerability

ABSTRACT Agriculture is crucial for global food supply and dominates the Earth's land surface. It is unknown, however, how slow but relentless changes in climate mean state, versus random extreme conditions arising from changing variability , will affect agroecosystems' carbon fluxes, energy fluxes, and crop production. We used an advanced weather generator to partition changes in mean climate state versus variability for both temperature and precipitation, producing forcing data to drive factorial‐design simulations of US Midwest agricultural regions in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. We found that an increase in temperature mean lowers stored carbon, plant productivity, and crop yield, and tends to convert agroecosystems from a carbon sink to a source, as expected; it also can cause local to regional cooling in the earth system model through its effects on the Bowen Ratio. The combined effect of mean and variability changes on carbon fluxes and pools was nonlinear, that is, greater than each individual case. For instance, gross primary production reduces by 9%, 1%, and 13% due to change in mean temperature, change in temperature variability, and change in both temperature mean and variability, respectively. Overall, the scenario with change in both temperature and precipitation means leads to the largest reduction in carbon fluxes (−16% gross primary production), carbon pools (−35% vegetation carbon), and crop yields (−33% and −22% median reduction in yield for corn and soybean, respectively). By unambiguously parsing the effects of changing climate mean versus variability and quantifying their nonadditive impacts, this study lays a foundation for more robust understanding and prediction of agroecosystems' vulnerability to 21st‐century climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

DEEP Solar: Data DrivEn Modeling and Analytics for Enhanced System Layer ImPlementation

Realizing the SETO 2030 mission of reducing solar energy costs to 3-5 c/kWh will require innovative enabling research on effective, cost-efficient integration of local PV within distribution systems. However, the intermittent and variable nature of PVs compels operators to impose conservative hosting capacity constraints. Given the extremely high variability of (intermittent and unpredictable) solar energy generation, relaxing the capacity constraints (which are currently around 15%) and achieving 100% or greater integration of renewables will require a fundamental transformation of the power grid via the utilization of exponentially larger amounts of AMI enabled fine-grained data. To address the challenges in increasing the penetration of renewable energy based DERs, this project envisions an Enhanced System Layer (ESL) at the distribution network level that is reliable, cost-effective and scalable to millions of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)/devices. This includes developing: 1) Transformative and highly scalable machine learning based predictive analytics tools that plug into distribution system planning and provide real-time situational awareness at the distribution level for short and long-term operational planning. The tools will be built using novel data-driven energy models of millions of active nodes with AMI, 2) Adaptive stochastic analysis and optimization algorithms for real-time grid operations, 3) Dynamic Scenario Analysis using parallel Cloudenabled implementations with < 1 minute computational cycle times.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM SciDAC) (Technical Final Report)

Runaway electrons can severely damage the plasma facing components on ITER during a major disruption and pose a major risk for tokamak fusion. It has been recognized that an adequate disruption mitigation system (DMS) is essential for the safe operation of ITER. The United States is responsible for the design and implementation of the disruption mitigation system on ITER, and in July 2016 the Simulation Center for Runaway Electron Avoidance and Mitigation (SCREAM) was launched by DOE, in a joint Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) collaboration. SCREAM was a comprehensive theory and simulation SciDAC center that provided physics guidance in the avoidance and mitigation of runaway electrons, and in tandem with domestic and international experiments, helped establish the qualitative and quantitative bases for safe operational scenarios and viable mitigation techniques. The SCREAM center assembled a national team of experts in runaway electron physics, tokamak disruptions, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation, and advanced algorithms and computing. The team combined advanced simulation and analysis capability facilitated by direct participation of ASCR SciDAC institutes with theoretical models and code development by FES scientists to focus on the runaway risk for ITER and tokamaks in general. The research scope was focussed on integrated simulations of kinetic runaway electrons, including MHD and fluid models of impurity transport, within a research plan guided by theory. The specific research tasks were (1) establish the fundamental physics of runaway generation, saturation, and dynamical evolution in a tokamak; (2) examine the critical path toward runaway avoidance; and (3) investigate the viability and effectiveness of the leading candidate schemes for runaway mitigation. In all three areas, members of the team carried out scoping studies that established the readiness for rapid and critical advances, especially in the deployment and further development of large-to extreme-scale simulation tools. Our multi-pronged computational approach included (1) relativistic Fokker-Planck solvers with discretization in phase space, (2) self-consistent particle-in-cell techniques, (3) particle-based Monte-Carlo, and (4) MHD-particle hybrid simulations. Cross-check between these different methods provided an additional means for verification and further bolstered the fidelity of our physics prediction. Validation against experimental results brings confidence to the predictive capability for ITER and frequently leads to new ideas for understanding and mitigating the thermal quench driven runaway electron phenomenon.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗